Search results for: prediction equations
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3935

Search results for: prediction equations

695 Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Bearings Based on Nonlinear Dimensional Reduction Combined with Timing Signals

Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Wudong Fan, Hengshan Zhang, Yimin Zhou

Abstract:

In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features have the different contributions to construct the health indicators, the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered. To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets. Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.

Keywords: continuous wavelet transform, convolution neural net-work, gated recurrent unit, health indicators, remaining useful life

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
694 Sensitivity Analysis and Solitary Wave Solutions to the (2+1)-Dimensional Boussinesq Equation in Dispersive Media

Authors: Naila Nasreen, Dianchen Lu

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This paper explores the dynamical behavior of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, which is a nonlinear water wave equation and is used to model wave packets in dispersive media with weak nonlinearity. This equation depicts how long wave made in shallow water propagates due to the influence of gravity. The (2+1)- dimensional Boussinesq equation combines the two-way propagation of the classical Boussinesq equation with the dependence on a second spatial variable, as that occurs in the two-dimensional Kadomstev- Petviashvili equation. This equation provides a description of head- on collision of oblique waves and it possesses some interesting properties. The governing model is discussed by the assistance of Ricatti equation mapping method, a relatively integration tool. The solutions have been extracted in different forms the solitary wave solutions as well as hyperbolic and periodic solutions. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is demonstrated for the designed dynamical structural system’s wave profiles, where the soliton wave velocity and wave number parameters regulate the water wave singularity. In addition to being helpful for elucidating nonlinear partial differential equations, the method in use gives previously extracted solutions and extracts fresh exact solutions. Assuming the right values for the parameters, various graph in different shapes are sketched to provide information about the visual format of the earned results. This paper’s findings support the efficacy of the approach taken in enhancing nonlinear dynamical behavior. We believe this research will be of interest to a wide variety of engineers that work with engineering models. Findings show the effectiveness simplicity, and generalizability of the chosen computational approach, even when applied to complicated systems in a variety of fields, especially in ocean engineering.

Keywords: (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation, solitary wave solutions, Ricatti equation mapping approach, nonlinear phenomena

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
693 Modelling the Dynamics and Optimal Control Strategies of Terrorism within the Southern Borno State Nigeria

Authors: Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

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Terrorism, which remains one of the largest threats faced by various nations and communities around the world, including Nigeria, is the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population to attain particular goals that might be political, religious, or economical. Several terrorist groups are currently active in Nigeria, leading to attacks on both civil and military targets. Among these groups, Boko Haram is the deadliest terrorist group operating majorly in Borno State. The southern part of Borno State in North-Eastern Nigeria has been plagued by terrorism, insurgency, and conflict for several years. Understanding the dynamics of terrorism is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate its impact on communities and to facilitate peace-building efforts. This research aims to develop a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of terrorism within the southern part of Borno State, Nigeria, capturing both government and local community intervention strategies as control measures in combating terrorism. A compartmental model of five nonlinear differential equations is formulated. The model analyses show that a feasible solution set of the model exists and is bounded. Stability analyses show that both the terrorism free equilibrium and the terrorism endermic equilibrium are asymptotically stable, making the model to have biological meaning. Optimal control theory will be employed to identify the most effective strategy to prevent or minimize acts of terrorism. The research outcomes are expected to contribute towards enhancing security and stability in Southern Borno State while providing valuable insights for policymakers, security agencies, and researchers. This is an ongoing research.

Keywords: modelling, terrorism, optimal control, susceptible, non-susceptible, community intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 22
692 Nonlinear Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation of a Supersonic Air to Air Missile by Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
691 Numerical Tools for Designing Multilayer Viscoelastic Damping Devices

Authors: Mohammed Saleh Rezk, Reza Kashani

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Auxiliary damping has gained popularity in recent years, especially in structures such as mid- and high-rise buildings. Distributed damping systems (typically viscous and viscoelastic) or reactive damping systems (such as tuned mass dampers) are the two types of damping choices for such structures. Distributed VE dampers are normally configured as braces or damping panels, which are engaged through relatively small movements between the structural members when the structure sways under wind or earthquake loading. In addition to being used as stand-alone dampers in distributed damping applications, VE dampers can also be incorporated into the suspension element of tuned mass dampers (TMDs). In this study, analytical and numerical tools for modeling and design of multilayer viscoelastic damping devices to be used in dampening the vibration of large structures are developed. Considering the limitations of analytical models for the synthesis and analysis of realistic, large, multilayer VE dampers, the emphasis of the study has been on numerical modeling using the finite element method. To verify the finite element models, a two-layer VE damper using ½ inch synthetic viscoelastic urethane polymer was built, tested, and the measured parameters were compared with the numerically predicted ones. The numerical model prediction and experimentally evaluated damping and stiffness of the test VE damper were in very good agreement. The effectiveness of VE dampers in adding auxiliary damping to larger structures is numerically demonstrated by chevron bracing one such damper numerically into the model of a massive frame subject to an abrupt lateral load. A comparison of the responses of the frame to the aforementioned load, without and with the VE damper, clearly shows the efficacy of the damper in lowering the extent of frame vibration.

Keywords: viscoelastic, damper, distributed damping, tuned mass damper

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
690 Cement Bond Characteristics of Artificially Fabricated Sandstones

Authors: Ashirgul Kozhagulova, Ainash Shabdirova, Galym Tokazhanov, Minh Nguyen

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The synthetic rocks have been advantageous over the natural rocks in terms of availability and the consistent studying the impact of a particular parameter. The artificial rocks can be fabricated using variety of techniques such as mixing sand and Portland cement or gypsum, firing the mixture of sand and fine powder of borosilicate glass or by in-situ precipitation of calcite solution. In this study, sodium silicate solution has been used as the cementing agent for the quartz sand. The molded soft cylindrical sandstone samples are placed in the gas-tight pressure vessel, where the hardening of the material takes place as the chemical reaction between carbon dioxide and the silicate solution progresses. The vessel allows uniform disperse of carbon dioxide and control over the ambient gas pressure. Current paper shows how the bonding material is initially distributed in the intergranular space and the surface of the sand particles by the usage of Electron Microscopy and the Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy. During the study, the strength of the cement bond as a function of temperature is observed. The impact of cementing agent dosage on the micro and macro characteristics of the sandstone is investigated. The analysis of the cement bond at micro level helps to trace the changes to particles bonding damage after a potential yielding. Shearing behavior and compressional response have been examined resulting in the estimation of the shearing resistance and cohesion force of the sandstone. These are considered to be main input values to the mathematical prediction models of sand production from weak clastic oil reservoir formations.

Keywords: artificial sanstone, cement bond, microstructure, SEM, triaxial shearing

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
689 Inverse Prediction of Thermal Parameters of an Annular Hyperbolic Fin Subjected to Thermal Stresses

Authors: Ashis Mallick, Rajeev Ranjan

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The closed form solution for thermal stresses in an annular fin with hyperbolic profile is derived using Adomian decomposition method (ADM). The conductive-convective fin with variable thermal conductivity is considered in the analysis. The nonlinear heat transfer equation is efficiently solved by ADM considering insulated convective boundary conditions at the tip of fin. The constant of integration in the solution is to be estimated using minimum decomposition error method. The solution of temperature field is represented in a polynomial form for convenience to use in thermo-elasticity equation. The non-dimensional thermal stress fields are obtained using the ADM solution of temperature field coupled with the thermo-elasticity solution. The influence of the various thermal parameters in temperature field and stress fields are presented. In order to show the accuracy of the ADM solution, the present results are compared with the results available in literature. The stress fields in fin with hyperbolic profile are compared with those of uniform thickness profile. Result shows that hyperbolic fin profile is better choice for enhancing heat transfer. Moreover, less thermal stresses are developed in hyperbolic profile as compared to rectangular profile. Next, Nelder-Mead based simplex search method is employed for the inverse estimation of unknown non-dimensional thermal parameters in a given stress fields. Owing to the correlated nature of the unknowns, the best combinations of the model parameters which are satisfying the predefined stress field are to be estimated. The stress fields calculated using the inverse parameters give a very good agreement with the stress fields obtained from the forward solution. The estimated parameters are suitable to use for efficient and cost effective fin designing.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition, inverse analysis, hyperbolic fin, variable thermal conductivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
688 Exploring Hydrogen Embrittlement and Fatigue Crack Growth in API 5L X52 Steel Pipeline Under Cyclic Internal Pressure

Authors: Omar Bouledroua, Djamel Zelmati, Zahreddine Hafsi, Milos B. Djukic

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Transporting hydrogen gas through the existing natural gas pipeline network offers an efficient solution for energy storage and conveyance. Hydrogen generated from excess renewable electricity can be conveyed through the API 5L steel-made pipelines that already exist. In recent years, there has been a growing demand for the transportation of hydrogen through existing gas pipelines. Therefore, numerical and experimental tests are required to verify and ensure the mechanical integrity of the API 5L steel pipelines that will be used for pressurized hydrogen transportation. Internal pressure loading is likely to accelerate hydrogen diffusion through the internal pipe wall and consequently accentuate the hydrogen embrittlement of steel pipelines. Furthermore, pre-cracked pipelines are susceptible to quick failure, mainly under a time-dependent cyclic pressure loading that drives fatigue crack propagation. Meanwhile, after several loading cycles, the initial cracks will propagate to a critical size. At this point, the remaining service life of the pipeline can be estimated, and inspection intervals can be determined. This paper focuses on the hydrogen embrittlement of API 5L steel-made pipeline under cyclic pressure loading. Pressurized hydrogen gas is transported through a network of pipelines where demands at consumption nodes vary periodically. The resulting pressure profile over time is considered a cyclic loading on the internal wall of a pre-cracked pipeline made of API 5L steel-grade material. Numerical modeling has allowed the prediction of fatigue crack evolution and estimation of the remaining service life of the pipeline. The developed methodology in this paper is based on the ASME B31.12 standard, which outlines the guidelines for hydrogen pipelines.

Keywords: hydrogen embrittlement, pipelines, transient flow, cyclic pressure, fatigue crack growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
687 Off-Shore Wind Turbines: The Issue of Soil Plugging during Pile Installation

Authors: Mauro Iannazzone, Carmine D'Agostino

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Off-shore wind turbines are currently considered as a reliable source of renewable energy Worldwide and especially in the UK. Most of the operational off-shore wind turbines located in shallow waters (i.e. < 30 m) are supported on monopiles. Monopiles are open-ended steel tubes with diameter ranging between 4 to 6 m. It is expected that future off-shore wind farms will be located in water depths as high as 70 m. Therefore, alternative foundation arrangements are needed. Foundations for off-shore structures normally consist of open-ended piles driven into the soil by means of impact hammers. During pile installation, the soil inside the pile may be mobilized by the increasing shear strength such as to prevent more soil from entering the pile. This phenomenon is known as soil plugging, and represents an important issue as it may change significantly the driving resistance of open-ended piles. In fact, if the plugging formation is unexpected, the installation may require more powerful and more expensive hammers. Engineers need to estimate whether the driven pile will be installed in a plugged or unplugged mode. As a consequence, a prediction of the degree of soil plugging is required in order to correctly predict the drivability of the pile. This work presents a brief review of the state-of-the-art of pile driving and approaches used to predict formation of soil plugs. In addition, a novel analytical approach is proposed, which is based on the vertical equilibrium of a plugged pile. Differently from previous studies, this research takes into account the enhancement of the stress within the soil plug. Finally, the work presents and discusses a series of experimental tests, which are carried out on small-scale models piles to validate the analytical solution.

Keywords: off-shore wind turbines, pile installation, soil plugging, wind energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 312
686 Performance Evaluation of Using Genetic Programming Based Surrogate Models for Approximating Simulation Complex Geochemical Transport Processes

Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

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Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
685 Rumination Time and Reticuloruminal Temperature around Calving in Eutocic and Dystocic Dairy Cows

Authors: Levente Kovács, Fruzsina Luca Kézér, Ottó Szenci

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Prediction of the onset of calving and recognizing difficulties at calving has great importance in decreasing neonatal losses and reducing the risk of health problems in the early postpartum period. In this study, changes of rumination time, reticuloruminal pH and temperature were investigated in eutocic (EUT, n = 10) and dystocic (DYS, n = 8) dairy cows around parturition. Rumination time was continuously recorded using an acoustic biotelemetry system, whereas reticuloruminal pH and temperature were recorded using an indwelling and wireless data transmitting system. The recording period lasted from 3 d before calving until 7 days in milk. For the comparison of rumination time and reticuloruminal characteristics between groups, time to return to baseline (the time interval required to return to baseline from the delivery of the calf) and area under the curve (AUC, both for prepartum and postpartum periods) were calculated for each parameter. Rumination time decreased from baseline 28 h before calving both for EUT and DYS cows (P = 0.023 and P = 0.017, respectively). After 20 h before calving, it decreased onwards to reach 32.4 ± 2.3 and 13.2 ± 2.0 min/4 h between 8 and 4 h before delivery in EUT and DYS cows, respectively, and then it decreased below 10 and 5 min during the last 4 h before calving (P = 0.003 and P = 0.008, respectively). Until 12 h after delivery rumination time reached 42.6 ± 2.7 and 51.0 ± 3.1 min/4 h in DYS and EUT dams, respectively, however, AUC and time to return to baseline suggested lower rumination activity in DYS cows than in EUT dams for the 168-h postpartum observational period (P = 0.012 and P = 0.002, respectively). Reticuloruminal pH decreased from baseline 56 h before calving both for EUT and DYS cows (P = 0.012 and P = 0.016, respectively), but did not differ between groups before delivery. In DYS cows, reticuloruminal temperature decreased from baseline 32 h before calving by 0.23 ± 0.02 °C (P = 0.012), whereas in EUT cows such a decrease was found only 20 h before delivery (0.48 ± 0.05 °C, P < 0.01). AUC of reticuloruminal temperature calculated for the prepartum period was greater in EUT cows than in DYS cows (P = 0.042). During the first 4 h after calving, it decreased from 39.7 ± 0.1 to 39.00 ± 0.1 °C and from 39.8 ± 0.1 to 38.8 ± 0.1 °C in EUT and DYS cows, respectively (P < 0.01 for both groups) and reached baseline levels after 35.4 ± 3.4 and 37.8 ± 4.2 h after calving in EUT and DYS cows, respectively. Based on our results, continuous monitoring of changes in rumination time and reticuloruminal temperature seems to be promising in the early detection of cows with a higher risk of dystocia. Depressed postpartum rumination time of DYS cows highlights the importance of the monitoring of cows experiencing difficulties at calving.

Keywords: reticuloruminal pH, reticuloruminal temperature, rumination time, dairy cows, dystocia

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
684 Cognitive Science Based Scheduling in Grid Environment

Authors: N. D. Iswarya, M. A. Maluk Mohamed, N. Vijaya

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Grid is infrastructure that allows the deployment of distributed data in large size from multiple locations to reach a common goal. Scheduling data intensive applications becomes challenging as the size of data sets are very huge in size. Only two solutions exist in order to tackle this challenging issue. First, computation which requires huge data sets to be processed can be transferred to the data site. Second, the required data sets can be transferred to the computation site. In the former scenario, the computation cannot be transferred since the servers are storage/data servers with little or no computational capability. Hence, the second scenario can be considered for further exploration. During scheduling, transferring huge data sets from one site to another site requires more network bandwidth. In order to mitigate this issue, this work focuses on incorporating cognitive science in scheduling. Cognitive Science is the study of human brain and its related activities. Current researches are mainly focused on to incorporate cognitive science in various computational modeling techniques. In this work, the problem solving approach of human brain is studied and incorporated during the data intensive scheduling in grid environments. Here, a cognitive engine is designed and deployed in various grid sites. The intelligent agents present in CE will help in analyzing the request and creating the knowledge base. Depending upon the link capacity, decision will be taken whether to transfer data sets or to partition the data sets. Prediction of next request is made by the agents to serve the requesting site with data sets in advance. This will reduce the data availability time and data transfer time. Replica catalog and Meta data catalog created by the agents assist in decision making process.

Keywords: data grid, grid workflow scheduling, cognitive artificial intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 394
683 Design of a Surveillance Drone with Computer Aided Durability

Authors: Maram Shahad Dana Anfal

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This research paper presents the design of a surveillance drone with computer-aided durability and model analyses that provides a cost-effective and efficient solution for various applications. The quadcopter's design is based on a lightweight and strong structure made of materials such as aluminum and titanium, which provide a durable structure for the quadcopter. The structure of this product and the computer-aided durability system are both designed to ensure frequent repairs or replacements, which will save time and money in the long run. Moreover, the study discusses the drone's ability to track, investigate, and deliver objects more quickly than traditional methods, makes it a highly efficient and cost-effective technology. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of the quadcopter's operation dynamics and limitations is presented. In both simulation and experimental data, the computer-aided durability system and the drone's design demonstrate their effectiveness, highlighting the potential for a variety of applications, such as search and rescue missions, infrastructure monitoring, and agricultural operations. Also, the findings provide insights into possible areas for improvement in the design and operation of the drone. Ultimately, this paper presents a reliable and cost-effective solution for surveillance applications by designing a drone with computer-aided durability and modeling. With its potential to save time and money, increase reliability, and enhance safety, it is a promising technology for the future of surveillance drones. operation dynamic equations have been evaluated successfully for different flight conditions of a quadcopter. Also, CAE modeling techniques have been applied for the modal risk assessment at operating conditions.Stress analysis have been performed under the loadings of the worst-case combined motion flight conditions.

Keywords: drone, material, solidwork, hypermesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
682 Water Management Scheme: Panacea to Development Using Nigeria’s University of Ibadan Water Supply Scheme as a Case Study

Authors: Sunday Olufemi Adesogan

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The supply of potable water at least is a very important index in national development. Water tariffs depend on the treatment cost which carries the highest percentage of the total operation cost in any water supply scheme. In order to keep water tariffs as low as possible, treatment costs have to be minimized. The University of Ibadan, Nigeria, water supply scheme consists of a treatment plant with three distribution stations (Amina way, Kurumi and Lander) and two raw water supply sources (Awba dam and Eleyele dam). An operational study of the scheme was carried out to ascertain the efficiency of the supply of potable water on the campus to justify the need for water supply schemes in tertiary institutions. The study involved regular collection, processing and analysis of periodic operational data. Data collected include supply reading (water production on daily basis) and consumers metered reading for a period of 22 months (October 2013 - July 2015), and also collected, were the operating hours of both plants and human beings. Applying the required mathematical equations, total loss was determined for the distribution system, which was translated into monetary terms. Adequacies of the operational functions were also determined. The study revealed that water supply scheme is justified in tertiary institutions. It was also found that approximately 10.7 million Nigerian naira (N) is lost to leakages during the 22-month study period; the system’s storage capacity is no longer adequate, especially for peak water production. The capacity of the system as a whole is insufficient for the present university population and that the existing water supply system is not being operated in an optimal manner especially due to personnel, power and system ageing constraints.

Keywords: development, panacea, supply, water

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
681 Parameters Identification and Sensitivity Study for Abrasive WaterJet Milling Model

Authors: Didier Auroux, Vladimir Groza

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This work is part of STEEP Marie-Curie ITN project, and it focuses on the identification of unknown parameters of the proposed generic Abrasive WaterJet Milling (AWJM) PDE model, that appears as an ill-posed inverse problem. The necessity of studying this problem comes from the industrial milling applications where the possibility to predict and model the final surface with high accuracy is one of the primary tasks in the absence of any knowledge of the model parameters that should be used. In this framework, we propose the identification of model parameters by minimizing a cost function, measuring the difference between experimental and numerical solutions. The adjoint approach based on corresponding Lagrangian gives the opportunity to find out the unknowns of the AWJM model and their optimal values that could be used to reproduce the required trench profile. Due to the complexity of the nonlinear problem and a large number of model parameters, we use an automatic differentiation software tool (TAPENADE) for the adjoint computations. By adding noise to the artificial data, we show that in fact the parameter identification problem is highly unstable and strictly depends on input measurements. Regularization terms could be effectively used to deal with the presence of data noise and to improve the identification correctness. Based on this approach we present results in 2D and 3D of the identification of the model parameters and of the surface prediction both with self-generated data and measurements obtained from the real production. Considering different types of model and measurement errors allows us to obtain acceptable results for manufacturing and to expect the proper identification of unknowns. This approach also gives us the ability to distribute the research on more complex cases and consider different types of model and measurement errors as well as 3D time-dependent model with variations of the jet feed speed.

Keywords: Abrasive Waterjet Milling, inverse problem, model parameters identification, regularization

Procedia PDF Downloads 316
680 Quoting Jobshops Due Dates Subject to Exogenous Factors in Developing Nations

Authors: Idris M. Olatunde, Kareem B.

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In manufacturing systems, especially job shops, service performance is a key factor that determines customer satisfaction. Service performance depends not only on the quality of the output but on the delivery lead times as well. Besides product quality enhancement, delivery lead time must be minimized for optimal patronage. Quoting accurate due dates is sine quo non for job shop operational survival in a global competitive environment. Quoting accurate due dates in job shops has been a herculean task that nearly defiled solutions from many methods employed due to complex jobs routing nature of the system. This class of NP-hard problems possessed no rigid algorithms that can give an optimal solution. Jobshop operational problem is more complex in developing nations due to some peculiar factors. Operational complexity in job shops emanated from political instability, poor economy, technological know-how, and the non-promising socio-political environment. The mentioned exogenous factors were hardly considered in the previous studies on scheduling problem related to due date determination in job shops. This study has filled the gap created in the past studies by developing a dynamic model that incorporated the exogenous factors for accurate determination of due dates for varying jobs complexity. Real data from six job shops selected from the different part of Nigeria, were used to test the efficacy of the model, and the outcomes were analyzed statistically. The results of the analyzes showed that the model is more promising in determining accurate due dates than the traditional models deployed by many job shops in terms of patronage and lead times minimization.

Keywords: due dates prediction, improved performance, customer satisfaction, dynamic model, exogenous factors, job shops

Procedia PDF Downloads 412
679 Influence of Hygro-Thermo-Mechanical Loading on Buckling and Vibrational Behavior of FG-CNT Composite Beam with Temperature Dependent Characteristics

Authors: Puneet Kumar, Jonnalagadda Srinivas

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The authors report here vibration and buckling analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube-polymer composite (FG-CNTPC) beams under hygro-thermo-mechanical environments using higher order shear deformation theory. The material properties of CNT and polymer matrix are often affected by temperature and moisture content. A micromechanical model with agglomeration effect is employed to compute the elastic, thermal and moisture properties of the composite beam. The governing differential equation of FG-CNTRPC beam is developed using higher-order shear deformation theory to account shear deformation effects. The elastic, thermal and hygroscopic strain terms are derived from variational principles. Moreover, thermal and hygroscopic loads are determined by considering uniform, linear and sinusoidal variation of temperature and moisture content through the thickness. Differential equations of motion are formulated as an eigenvalue problem using appropriate displacement fields and solved by using finite element modeling. The obtained results of natural frequencies and critical buckling loads show a good agreement with published data. The numerical illustrations elaborate the dynamic as well as buckling behavior under uniaxial load for different environmental conditions, boundary conditions and volume fraction distribution profile, beam slenderness ratio. Further, comparisons are shown at different boundary conditions, temperatures, degree of moisture content, volume fraction as well as agglomeration of CNTs, slenderness ratio of beam for different shear deformation theories.

Keywords: hygrothermal effect, free vibration, buckling load, agglomeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
678 Integrative Transcriptomic Profiling of NK Cells and Monocytes: Advancing Diagnostic and Therapeutic Strategies for COVID-19

Authors: Salma Loukman, Reda Benmrid, Najat Bouchmaa, Hicham Hboub, Rachid El Fatimy, Rachid Benhida

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In this study, it use integrated transcriptomic datasets from the GEO repository with the purpose of investigating immune dysregulation in COVID-19. Thus, in this context, we decided to be focused on NK cells and CD14+ monocytes gene expression, considering datasets GSE165461 and GSE198256, respectively. Other datasets with PBMCs, lung, olfactory, and sensory epithelium and lymph were used to provide robust validation for our results. This approach gave an integrated view of the immune responses in COVID-19, pointing out a set of potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets with special regard to standards of physiological conditions. IFI27, MKI67, CENPF, MBP, HBA2, TMEM158, THBD, HBA1, LHFPL2, SLA, and AC104564.3 were identified as key genes from our analysis that have critical biological processes related to inflammation, immune regulation, oxidative stress, and metabolic processes. Consequently, such processes are important in understanding the heterogeneous clinical manifestations of COVID-19—from acute to long-term effects now known as 'long COVID'. Subsequent validation with additional datasets consolidated these genes as robust biomarkers with an important role in the diagnosis of COVID-19 and the prediction of its severity. Moreover, their enrichment in key pathophysiological pathways presented them as potential targets for therapeutic intervention.The results provide insight into the molecular dynamics of COVID-19 caused by cells such as NK cells and other monocytes. Thus, this study constitutes a solid basis for targeted diagnostic and therapeutic development and makes relevant contributions to ongoing research efforts toward better management and mitigation of the pandemic.

Keywords: SARS-COV-2, RNA-seq, biomarkers, severity, long COVID-19, bio analysis

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677 Design, Synthesis and Pharmacological Investigation of Novel 2-Phenazinamine Derivatives as a Mutant BCR-ABL (T315I) Inhibitor

Authors: Gajanan M. Sonwane

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Nowadays, the entire pharmaceutical industry is facing the challenge of increasing efficiency and innovation. The major hurdles are the growing cost of research and development and a concurrent stagnating number of new chemical entities (NCEs). Hence, the challenge is to select the most druggable targets and to search the equivalent drug-like compounds, which also possess specific pharmacokinetic and toxicological properties that allow them to be developed as drugs. The present research work includes the studies of developing new anticancer heterocycles by using molecular modeling techniques. The heterocycles synthesized through such methodology are much effective as various physicochemical parameters have been already studied and the structure has been optimized for its best fit in the receptor. Hence, on the basis of the literature survey and considering the need to develop newer anticancer agents, new phenazinamine derivatives were designed by subjecting the nucleus to molecular modeling, viz., GQSAR analysis and docking studies. Simultaneously, these designed derivatives were subjected to in silico prediction of biological activity through PASS studies and then in silico toxicity risk assessment studies. In PASS studies, it was found that all the derivatives exhibited a good spectrum of biological activities confirming its anticancer potential. The toxicity risk assessment studies revealed that all the derivatives obey Lipinski’s rule. Amongst these series, compounds 4c, 5b and 6c were found to possess logP and drug-likeness values comparable with the standard Imatinib (used for anticancer activity studies) and also with the standard drug methotrexate (used for antimitotic activity studies). One of the most notable mutations is the threonine to isoleucine mutation at codon 315 (T315I), which is known to be resistant to all currently available TKI. Enzyme assay planned for confirmation of target selective activity.

Keywords: drug design, tyrosine kinases, anticancer, Phenazinamine

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
676 Floristic Diversity, Carbon Stocks and Degradation Factors in Two Sacred Forests in the West Cameroon Region

Authors: Maffo Maffo Nicole Liliane, Mounmeni Kpoumie Hubert, Mbaire Matindje Karl Marx, Zapfack Louis

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Sacred forests play a valuable role in conserving local biodiversity and provide numerous ecosystem services in Cameroon. The study was carried out in the sacred forests of Bandrefam and Batoufam (western Cameroon). The aim was to estimate the diversity of woody species, carbon stocks and degradation factors in these sacred forests. The floristic inventory was carried out in plots measuring 25m × 25m for trees with diameters greater than 10 cm and 5m × 5m for trees with diameters less than 10 cm. Carbon stocks were estimated using the non-destructive method and the allometric equations. Data on degradation factors were collected using semi-structured surveys in the Bandrefam and Batoufam neighborhoods. The floristic inventory identified 65 species divided into 57 genera and 30 families in the Bandrefam Sacred Forest and 45 species divided into 42 genera and 27 families in the Batoufam Sacres Forest. The families common to both sacred forests are as follows: Phyllanthaceae, Fabaceae, Moraceae, Lamiaceae, Malvaceae, Rubiaceae, Meliaceae, Anacardiaceae, and Sapindaceae. Three genera are present in both sites. These are: Albizia, Macaranga, Trichillia. In addition, there are 27 species in common between the two sites. The total carbon stock is 469.26 tC/ha at Batoufam and 291.41 tC/ha at Bandrefam. The economic value varies between 15 823 877.05 fcfa at Batoufam and 9 825 530.528 fcfa at Bandrefam. The study shows that despite the sacred nature of these forests, they are subject to degradation factors such as bushfires (35.42 %), the creation of plantations (23.96 %), illegal timber exploitation (21.88 %), young people's lack of interest in the notion of conservation (9.38 %), climate change (7.29 %) and growing urbanization (2.08 %). These factors threaten biodiversity and reduce carbon storage in these forests.

Keywords: sacred forests, degradation factors, carbon stocks, semi-structured surveys

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
675 A Deep Learning Model with Greedy Layer-Wise Pretraining Approach for Optimal Syngas Production by Dry Reforming of Methane

Authors: Maryam Zarabian, Hector Guzman, Pedro Pereira-Almao, Abraham Fapojuwo

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Dry reforming of methane (DRM) has sparked significant industrial and scientific interest not only as a viable alternative for addressing the environmental concerns of two main contributors of the greenhouse effect, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), but also produces syngas, i.e., a mixture of hydrogen (H₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) utilized by a wide range of downstream processes as a feedstock for other chemical productions. In this study, we develop an AI-enable syngas production model to tackle the problem of achieving an equivalent H₂/CO ratio [1:1] with respect to the most efficient conversion. Firstly, the unsupervised density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSAN) algorithm removes outlier data points from the original experimental dataset. Then, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN) models employ the error-free dataset to predict the DRM results. DNN models inherently would not be able to obtain accurate predictions without a huge dataset. To cope with this limitation, we employ reusing pre-trained layers’ approaches such as transfer learning and greedy layer-wise pretraining. Compared to the other deep models (i.e., pure deep model and transferred deep model), the greedy layer-wise pre-trained deep model provides the most accurate prediction as well as similar accuracy to the RF model with R² values 1.00, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, and 0.999 for the total outlet flow, H₂/CO ratio, H₂ yield, CO yield, CH₄ conversion, and CO₂ conversion outputs, respectively.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, dry reforming of methane, artificial neural network, deep learning, machine learning, transfer learning, greedy layer-wise pretraining

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
674 Optimizing the Window Geometry Using Fractals

Authors: K. Geetha Ramesh, A. Ramachandraiah

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In an internal building space, daylight becomes a powerful source of illumination. The challenge therefore, is to develop means of utilizing both direct and diffuse natural light in buildings while maintaining and improving occupant's visual comfort, particularly at greater distances from the windows throwing daylight. The geometrical features of windows in a building have significant effect in providing daylight. The main goal of this research is to develop an innovative window geometry, which will effectively provide the daylight component adequately together with internal reflected component(IRC) and also the external reflected component(ERC), if any. This involves exploration of a light redirecting system using fractal geometry for windows, in order to penetrate and distribute daylight more uniformly to greater depths, minimizing heat gain and glare, and also to reduce building energy use substantially. Of late the creation of fractal geometrical window and the occurrence of daylight illuminance due to such windows is becoming an interesting study. The amount of daylight can change significantly based on the window geometry and sky conditions. This leads to the (i) exploration of various fractal patterns suitable for window designs, and (ii) quantification of the effect of chosen fractal window based on the relationship between the fractal pattern, size, orientation and glazing properties for optimizing daylighting. There are a lot of natural lighting applications able to predict the behaviour of a light in a room through a traditional opening - a regular window. The conventional prediction methodology involves the evaluation of the daylight factor, the internal reflected component and the external reflected component. Having evaluated the daylight illuminance level for a conventional window, the technical performance of a fractal window for an optimal daylighting is to be studied and compared with that of a regular window. The methodologies involved are highlighted in this paper.

Keywords: daylighting, fractal geometry, fractal window, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 301
673 Recurrent Neural Networks for Complex Survival Models

Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

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Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
672 Numerical Investigation of Multiphase Flow in Pipelines

Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

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We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, twophase flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
671 Effect of Volute Tongue Shape and Position on Performance of Turbo Machinery Compressor

Authors: Anuj Srivastava, Kuldeep Kumar

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This paper proposes a numerical study of volute tongue design, which affects the centrifugal compressor operating range and pressure recovery. Increased efficiency has been the traditional importance of compressor design. However, the increased operating range has become important in an age of ever-increasing productivity and energy costs in the turbomachinery industry. Efficiency and overall operating range are the two most important parameters studied to evaluate the aerodynamic performance of centrifugal compressor. Volute is one of the components that have significant effect on these two parameters. Choice of volute tongue geometry has major role in compressor performance, also affects performance map. The author evaluates the trade-off on using pull-back tongue geometry on centrifugal compressor performance. In present paper, three different tongue positions and shapes are discussed. These designs are compared in terms of pressure recovery coefficient, pressure loss coefficient, and stable operating range. The detailed flow structures for various volute geometries and pull back angle near tongue are studied extensively to explore the fluid behavior. The viscous Navier-Stokes equations are used to simulate the flow inside the volute. The numerical calculations are compared with thermodynamic 1-D calculations. Author concludes that the increment in compression ratio accompanies with more uniform pressure distribution in the modified tongue shape and location, a uniform static pressure around the circumferential which build a more uniform flow in the impeller and diffuser. Also, the blockage at the tongue of the volute was causing circumferentially nonuniformed pressure along the volute. This nonuniformity may lead impeller and diffuser to operate unstably. However, it is not the volute that directly controls the stall.

Keywords: centrifugal compressor volute, tongue geometry, pull-back, compressor performance, flow instability

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
670 Correlation between Neck Circumference and Other Anthropometric Indices as a Predictor of Obesity

Authors: Madhur Verma, Meena Rajput, Kamal Kishore

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Background: The general view that obesity is a problem of prosperous Western countries has been repealed with substantial evidence showing that middle-income countries like India are now at the heart of a fat explosion. Neck circumference has evolved as a promising index to measure obesity, because of the convenience of its use, even in culture sensitive population. Objectives: To determine whether neck circumference (NC) was associated with overweight and obesity and contributed to the prediction like other classical anthropometric indices. Methodology: Cross-sectional study consisting of 1080 adults (> 19 years) selected through Multi-stage random sampling between August 2013 and September 2014 using the pretested semi-structured questionnaire. After recruitment, the demographic and anthropometric parameters [BMI, Waist & Hip Circumference (WC, HC), Waist to hip ratio (WHR), waist to height ratio (WHtR), body fat percentage (BF %), neck circumference (NC)] were recorded & calculated as per standard procedures. Analysis was done using appropriate statistical tests. (SPSS, version 21.) Results: Mean age of study participants was 44.55+15.65 years. Overall prevalence of overweight & obesity as per modified criteria for Asian Indians (BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2) was 49.62% (Females-51.48%; Males-47.77%). Also, number of participants having high WHR, WHtR, BF%, WC & NC was 827(76.57%), 530(49.07%), 513(47.5%), 537(49.72%) & 376(34.81%) respectively. Variation of NC, BMI & BF% with age was non- significant. In both the genders, as per the Pearson’s correlational analysis, neck circumference was positively correlated with BMI (men, r=0.670 {p < 0.05}; women, r=0.564 {p < 0.05}), BF% (men, r=0.407 {p < 0.05}; women, r= 0.283 {p < 0.05}), WC (men, r=0.598{p < 0.05}; women, r=0.615 {p < 0.05}), HC (men, r=0.512{p < 0.05}; women, r=0.523{p < 0.05}), WHR (men, r= 0.380{p > 0.05}; women, r=0.022{p > 0.05}) & WHtR (men, r=0.318 {p < 0.05}; women, r=0.396{p < 0.05}). On ROC analysis, NC showed good discriminatory power to identify obesity with AUC (AUC for males: 0.822 & females: 0.873; p- value < 0.001) with maximum sensitivity and specificity at a cut-off value of 36.55 cms for males & 34.05cms for females. Conclusion: NC has fair validity as a community-based screener for overweight and obese individuals in the study context and has also correlated well with other classical indices.

Keywords: neck circumference, obesity, anthropometric indices, body fat percentage

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
669 In silico Subtractive Genomics Approach for Identification of Strain-Specific Putative Drug Targets among Hypothetical Proteins of Drug-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Strain 825795-1

Authors: Umairah Natasya Binti Mohd Omeershffudin, Suresh Kumar

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Klebsiella pneumoniae, a Gram-negative enteric bacterium that causes nosocomial and urinary tract infections. Particular concern is the global emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of Klebsiella pneumoniae. Characterization of antibiotic resistance determinants at the genomic level plays a critical role in understanding, and potentially controlling, the spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens. In this study, drug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae strain 825795-1 was investigated with extensive computational approaches aimed at identifying novel drug targets among hypothetical proteins. We have analyzed 1099 hypothetical proteins available in genome. We have used in-silico genome subtraction methodology to design potential and pathogen-specific drug targets against Klebsiella pneumoniae. We employed bioinformatics tools to subtract the strain-specific paralogous and host-specific homologous sequences from the bacterial proteome. The sorted 645 proteins were further refined to identify the essential genes in the pathogenic bacterium using the database of essential genes (DEG). We found 135 unique essential proteins in the target proteome that could be utilized as novel targets to design newer drugs. Further, we identified 49 cytoplasmic protein as potential drug targets through sub-cellular localization prediction. Further, we investigated these proteins in the DrugBank databases, and 11 of the unique essential proteins showed druggability according to the FDA approved drug bank databases with diverse broad-spectrum property. The results of this study will facilitate discovery of new drugs against Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Keywords: pneumonia, drug target, hypothetical protein, subtractive genomics

Procedia PDF Downloads 176
668 Modeling and Simulation of Turbulence Induced in Nozzle Cavitation and Its Effects on Internal Flow in a High Torque Low Speed Diesel Engine

Authors: Ali Javaid, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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To control combustion inside a direct injection diesel engine, fuel atomization is the best tool. Controlling combustion helps in reducing emissions and improves efficiency. Cavitation is one of the most important factors that significantly affect the nature of spray before it injects into combustion chamber. Typical fuel injector nozzles are small and operate at a very high pressure, which limits the study of internal nozzle behavior especially in case of diesel engine. Simulating cavitation in a fuel injector will help in understanding the phenomenon and will assist in further development. There is a parametric variation between high speed and high torque low speed diesel engines. The objective of this study is to simulate internal spray characteristics for a low speed high torque diesel engine. In-nozzle cavitation has strong effects on the parameters e.g. mass flow rate, fuel velocity, and momentum flux of fuel that is to be injected into the combustion chamber. The external spray dynamics and subsequently the air – fuel mixing depends on a lot of the parameters of fuel injecting the nozzle. The approach used to model turbulence induced in – nozzle cavitation for high-torque low-speed diesel engine, is homogeneous equilibrium model. The governing equations were modeled using Matlab. Complete Model in question was extensively evaluated by performing 3-D time-dependent simulations on Open FOAM, which is an open source flow solver and implemented in CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). Results thus obtained will be analyzed for better evaporation in the near-nozzle region. The proposed analyses will further help in better engine efficiency, low emission, and improved fuel economy.

Keywords: cavitation, HEM model, nozzle flow, open foam, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 290
667 Evaluating the Capability of the Flux-Limiter Schemes in Capturing the Turbulence Structures in a Fully Developed Channel Flow

Authors: Mohamed Elghorab, Vendra C. Madhav Rao, Jennifer X. Wen

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Turbulence modelling is still evolving, and efforts are on to improve and develop numerical methods to simulate the real turbulence structures by using the empirical and experimental information. The monotonically integrated large eddy simulation (MILES) is an attractive approach for modelling turbulence in high Re flows, which is based on the solving of the unfiltered flow equations with no explicit sub-grid scale (SGS) model. In the current work, this approach has been used, and the action of the SGS model has been included implicitly by intrinsic nonlinear high-frequency filters built into the convection discretization schemes. The MILES solver is developed using the opensource CFD OpenFOAM libraries. The role of flux limiters schemes namely, Gamma, superBee, van-Albada and van-Leer, is studied in predicting turbulent statistical quantities for a fully developed channel flow with a friction Reynolds number, ReT = 180, and compared the numerical predictions with the well-established Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for studying the wall generated turbulence. It is inferred from the numerical predictions that Gamma, van-Leer and van-Albada limiters produced more diffusion and overpredicted the velocity profiles, while superBee scheme reproduced velocity profiles and turbulence statistical quantities in good agreement with the reference DNS data in the streamwise direction although it deviated slightly in the spanwise and normal to the wall directions. The simulation results are further discussed in terms of the turbulence intensities and Reynolds stresses averaged in time and space to draw conclusion on the flux limiter schemes performance in OpenFOAM context.

Keywords: flux limiters, implicit SGS, MILES, OpenFOAM, turbulence statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 190
666 Predicting Stem Borer Density in Maize Using RapidEye Data and Generalized Linear Models

Authors: Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Tobias Landmann, Richard Kyalo, George Ong’amo, Bruno Le Ru

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is a major staple food crop in Africa, particularly in the eastern region of the continent. The maize growing area in Africa spans over 25 million ha and 84% of rural households in Africa cultivate maize mainly as a means to generate food and income. Average maize yields in Sub Saharan Africa are 1.4 t/ha as compared to global average of 2.5–3.9 t/ha due to biotic and abiotic constraints. Amongst the biotic production constraints in Africa, stem borers are the most injurious. In East Africa, yield losses due to stem borers are currently estimated between 12% to 40% of the total production. The objective of the present study was therefore to predict stem borer larvae density in maize fields using RapidEye reflectance data and generalized linear models (GLMs). RapidEye images were captured for a test site in Kenya (Machakos) in January and in February 2015. Stem borer larva numbers were modeled using GLMs assuming Poisson (Po) and negative binomial (NB) distributions with error with log arithmetic link. Root mean square error (RMSE) and ratio prediction to deviation (RPD) statistics were employed to assess the models performance using a leave one-out cross-validation approach. Results showed that NB models outperformed Po ones in all study sites. RMSE and RPD ranged between 0.95 and 2.70, and between 2.39 and 6.81, respectively. Overall, all models performed similar when used the January and the February image data. We conclude that reflectance data from RapidEye data can be used to estimate stem borer larvae density. The developed models could to improve decision making regarding controlling maize stem borers using various integrated pest management (IPM) protocols.

Keywords: maize, stem borers, density, RapidEye, GLM

Procedia PDF Downloads 496