Search results for: market crash prediction

Authors: Nguyen Thi Hoang Hieu

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Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activities have increasingly become popular in both developed and developing countries. It is also an attractive topic for researchers to exploit in various sectors such as business, economies or finance. However, activities of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in M&A activities for a long time have not been sufficiently studied to provide the complete picture of what has been really, particularly in the developing market like Vietnam. The study employs semi-structured in-depth interviews with experts who have worked for years in the M&A sector to explore the participation motivation of both buy side and sell side of M&A activities. In addition, through the interviews, the study attempts to explain how firms finance their M&A deals. The collected data then will be content-analyzed to reflect the study's expectations based on the theories and practices reviews. In addition, limitations and recommendations are given in the hope that the M&A performance in Vietnam can be improved in the future.

Keywords: mergers and acquisitions, Vietnam, small and medium enterprises, content-analysis, semi-structure in-depth interview

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Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

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Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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Authors: Marcos Fabris

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The flaccidity of the contemporary art production, its banality and incapacity of raising social and political relevant issues, and its ubiquitous connection to an ever prospering art market have become a trite, prosaic mantra, a thought-terminating cliché repeated by many, at least in the academic circles, who constantly lament the absence of pressing issues, artistically articulated from a Marxist perspective. This ‘resignation’ or crystalized insistence to consider Contemporary Art as a monolithic block – insufficiently critical – seems to be part of a pattern in Art History, not excluding its leftist wings: the idea that Modernism was, too, a homogeneous movement, one that despite its attempts to establish meaningful connections between art and society are now part of a museological past. This post-mortem attributed to a ‘flat’ modernism disregards it’s highly contradictory character and diverging tendencies, in permanent conflict between themselves and part of a larger movement that questioned Capitalism – as a system. The aim of this presentation is to shed light on some of the most radical modern tendencies, how they articulated ways to figure the uneven and combined development, and how this ‘Alternative Modernism’ may inform, inspire, and make us advance critically in our struggles against the returns of Capitalism.

Keywords: art criticism, art history, contemporary art, modernism

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Authors: Anwar Ul Haque, Waqar Asrar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffar S. M. Ali

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Pressure distribution data of the standard airfoils is usually used for the calibration purposes in subsonic wind tunnels. Results of such experiments are quite old and obtained by using the model in the spanwise direction. In this manuscript, pressure distribution over NACA 4412 airfoil model was presented by placing the 3D model in the lateral direction. The model is made of metal with pressure ports distributed longitudinally as well as in the lateral direction. The pressure model was attached to the floor of the tunnel with the help of the base plate to give the specified angle of attack to the model. Before the start of the experiments, the pressure tubes of the respective ports of the 128 ports pressure scanner are checked for leakage, and the losses due to the length of the pipes were also incorporated in the results for the specified pressure range. Growth rate maps of the boundary layer thickness were also plotted. It was found that with the increase in the velocity, the dynamic pressure distribution was also increased for the alpha seep. Plots of pressure distribution so obtained were overlapped with those obtained by using XFLR software, a low fidelity tool. It was found that at moderate and high angles of attack, the distribution of the pressure coefficients obtained from the experiments is high when compared with the XFLR ® results obtained along with the span of the wing. This under-prediction by XFLR ® is more obvious on the windward than on the leeward side.

Keywords: subsonic flow, boundary layer, wind tunnel, pressure testing

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Authors: E. Vlachopapadopoulou, E. Dikaiakou, E. Anagnostou, I. Panagiotopoulos, E. Kaloumenou, M. Kafetzi, A. Fotinou, S. Michalacos

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Aim: To investigate the relation and impact of Body Mass Index (BMI), Waist Circumference (WC) and Body Fat Weight (BFW) on insulin resistance (MATSUDA INDEX < 2.5) in children and adolescents. Methods: Data from 95 overweight and obese children (47 boys and 48 girls) with mean age 10.7 ± 2.2 years were analyzed. ROC analysis was used to investigate the predictive ability of BMI, WC and BFW for insulin resistance and find the optimal cut-offs. The overall performance of the ROC analysis was quantified by computing area under the curve (AUC). Results: ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal-cut off of WC for the prediction of insulin resistance was 97 cm with sensitivity equal to 75% and specificity equal to 73.1%. AUC was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.92, p=0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of obesity for the discrimination of participants with insulin resistance from those without insulin resistance were equal to 58.3% and 75%, respectively (AUC=0.67). BFW had a borderline predictive ability for insulin resistance (AUC=0.58, 95% CI: 0.43-0.74, p=0.101). The predictive ability of WC was equivalent with the correspondence predictive ability of BMI (p=0.891). Obese subjects had 4.2 times greater odds for having insulin resistance (95% CI: 1.71-10.30, p < 0.001), while subjects with WC more than 97 had 8.1 times greater odds for having insulin resistance (95% CI: 2.14-30.86, p=0.002). Conclusion: BMI and WC are important clinical factors that have significant clinical relation with insulin resistance in children and adolescents. The cut off of 97 cm for WC can identify children with greater likelihood for insulin resistance.

Keywords: body fat weight, body mass index, insulin resistance, obese children, waist circumference

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Authors: Bhavesh Dadhich, Fenil Bamnoliya, Akshita Swaminathan

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This project aims to design a system to generate energy from flowing wind due to the motion of a vehicle on the road or from the flow of wind in compact areas to utilize the wasteful energy into a useful one. It is envisaged through a design and aerodynamic performance improvement of a Savonius vertical axis wind turbine rotor and used in an integrated system with a Triboelectric Nanogenerator (TENG) that can generate a good amount of electrical energy. Aerodynamic calculations are performed numerically using Computational Fluid Dynamics software, and TENG's performance is evaluated analytically. The Turbine's coefficient of power is validated with published results for an inlet velocity of 7 m/s with a Tip Speed Ratio of 0.75 and found to reasonably agree with that of experiment results. The baseline design is modified with a new blade arc angle and rotor position angle based on the recommended parameter ranges suggested by previous researchers. Simulations have been performed for different T.S.R. values ranging from 0.25 to 1.5 with an interval of 0.25 with two applicable free stream velocities of 5 m/s and 7m/s. Finally, the newly designed VAWT CFD performance results are used as input for the analytical performance prediction of the triboelectric nanogenerator. The results show that this approach could be feasible and useful for small power source applications.

Keywords: savonius turbine, power, overlap ratio, tip speed ratio, TENG

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Authors: Jinu Phonamontham

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Coronavirus, also referred to as COVID-19, is a virus caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus. The pandemic has caused over 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths worldwide through the end of June 2020. In a previous study, HLA-DQA1*01:02 allele was associated with COVID-19 disease (p-value = 0.0121). Furthermore, there was a statistical significance between HLA- DQB1*06:02 and COVID-19 in the Italian population by Bonferroni’s correction (p-value = 0.0016). Nevertheless, there is no data describing the distribution of HLA alleles as a valid marker for prediction of COVID-19 in the Thai population. We want to investigate the prevalence of HLA-DQA1*01:02 and HLA-DQB1*06:02 alleles that are associated with severe COVID-19 in the Thai population. In this study, we recruited 200 healthy Thai individuals. Genomic DNA samples were isolated from EDTA blood using Genomic DNA Mini Kit. HLA genotyping was conducted using the Lifecodes HLA SSO typing kits (Immucor, West Avenue, Stamford, USA). The frequency of HLA-DQA1 alleles in Thai population, consisting of HLA-DQA1*01:01 (27.75%), HLA-DQA1*01:02 (24.50%), HLA-DQA1*03:03 (13.00%), HLA-DQA1*06:01 (10.25%) and HLA-DQA1*02:01 (6.75%). Furthermore, the distributions of HLA-DQB1 alleles were HLA-DQB1*05:02 (21.50%), HLA-DQB1*03:01 (15.75%), HLA-DQB1*05:01 (14.50%), HLA-DQB1*03:03 (11.00%) and HLA-DQB1*02:02 (8.25%). Particularly, HLA- DQA1*01:02 (29.00%) allele was the highest frequency in the NorthEast group, but there was not significant difference when compared with the other regions in Thais (p-value = 0.4202). HLA-DQB1*06:02 allele was similarly distributed in Thai population and there was no significant difference between Thais and China (3.8%) and South Korea (6.4%) and Japan (8.2%) with p-value > 0.05. Whereas, South Africa (15.7%) has a significance with Thais by p-value of 0.0013. This study supports the specific genotyping of the HLA-DQA1*01:02 and HLA-DQB1*06:02 alleles to screen severe COVID-19 in Thai and many populations.

Keywords: HLA-DQA1*01:02, HLA-DQB1*06:02, Asian, Thai population

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Authors: Arturs Macanovskis, Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

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Work has three stages. In the first stage was examined pull-out process for steel fiber was embedded into a concrete by one end and was pulled out of concrete under the angle to pulling out force direction. Angle was varied. Length of steel fiber was 26 mm, diameter 0.5 mm. On the obtained force- displacement diagrams were observed jumps. For such mechanical behavior explanation, fiber channel in concrete surface microscopical experimental investigation, using microscope KEYENCE VHX2000, was performed. Surface of fiber channel in concrete matrix after pull-out test (fiber angle to pulling out force direction 70°). At the second stage were obtained diagrams for load- crack opening displacement for breaking homogeneously reinforced and layered fiber concrete prisms (with dimensions 10x10x40 cm) subjected to 4-point bending. After testing was analyzed main crack. On the main crack’s both surfaces were recognized all pulled out fibers their locations, angles to crack surface and lengths of pull-out fibers parts. At the third stage elaborated prediction model for the fiber-concrete beam, failure under bending, using the following data: a) diagrams for fibers pulling out at different angles; b) experimental data about steel-straight fibers locations in the main crack.

Keywords: fiberconcrete, pull-out, fiber channel, layered fiberconcrete

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Authors: Flevy Lasrado

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the service quality dimensions and model them to propose quality improvements using interpretive structural modelling (ISM). Methodology: This paper used an interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The data was collected from the expert opinions that included a questionnaire. The detailed method of using ISM is discussed in the paper. Findings: The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions. Practical implications or Original Value: An ISM based model has been developed for healthcare facility for improving customer satisfaction and increasing market share. Although there is lot of research on SERVQUAL model adapted to healthcare sector, no study has been done to understand the interactions among these dimensions. So the major contribution of this research work is the development of contextual relationships among identified variables through a systematic framework. The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions.

Keywords: SERQUAL, healthcare, quality, service quality

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Authors: M. Chavleishvili, E. Kharaishvili, G. Erkomaishvili

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The article presents the development trends of farms, estimates on the optimal scope of farming, as well as the experience of local and foreign countries in this area. As well, the advantages of small and large farms are discussed; herewith, the scales of farms are compared to the local reality. The study analyzes the results of farm operations and the possibilities of diversification of farms. The indicators of an effective use of land resources and land fragmentation are measured; also, a comparative analysis with other countries is presented, in particular, the measurements of agricultural lands for farming, as well as the indicators of population ensuring. The conducted research shows that most of the farms in Georgia are small and their development is at the initial stage, which outlines that the country has a high resource potential to increase the scale of the farming industry and its full integration into market relations. On the basis of the obtained results, according to the research on the scale of farming in Georgia and the identification of hampering factors of farming development, the conclusions are presented and the relevant recommendations are suggested.

Keywords: farm cooperatives.farms, farm scale, land fragmentation, small and large farms

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Authors: Abdallah Q. Bataineh

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The electronics market in Jordan is facing extraordinary expectations from consumers, whose opinions are progressively more essential and have effective power on the overall marketing strategy preparation and execution by electronics agents. This research aimed to explore the effect of price volatile, follow-up, maintenance and warranty policy on distributor’s retention. Focus group, in-depth interviews, and self-administered questionnaire were held with a total sample of 50 electronics distribution stores who have a direct contact and purchase frequently from electronic agencies. By using descriptive statistics and multiple regression tests, the main findings of this research is that there is an impact of price volatile, follow-up, maintenance and warranty policy on distributor’s retention, and the key predictor variable was price volatile. Thus, the researcher recommended flat rate pricing strategy to ensure that all distributors will sell the product on the same pricing base, regardless of the generated margin by each one of them. Moreover, conclusion and future research were also discussed.

Keywords: distributors retention, follow-up, maintenance, price volatile, warranty policy

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Authors: Hoda Manafian, Stephen Holland

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Problem statement: Rural areas in Iran are one of the most popular tourism destinations. Abyaneh Village is one of them with a long history behind it (more than 1500 years) which is a national heritage site and also is nominated as a world heritage site in UNESCO tentative list from 2007. There is a considerable foundation of religious-cultural heritage and also agricultural history and activities. However, this heritage site suffers from mass tourism which is beyond its social and physical carrying capacity, since the annual number of tourists exceed 500,000. While there are four adjacent villages around Abyaneh which can benefit from advantages of tourism. Local managers also can at the same time prorate the tourists’ flux of Abyaneh on those other villages especially in high-season. The other villages have some cultural and natural tourism attractions as well. Goal: The main goal of this study is to identify a feasible development strategy according to the current strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of rural tourism in this area (Abyaneh Village and four adjacent villages). This development strategy can lead to sustainable management of these destinations. Method: To this end, we used SWOT analysis as a well-established tool for conducting a situational analysis to define a sustainable development strategy. The procedures included following steps: 1) Extracting variables of SWOT chart based on interviewing tourism experts (n=13), local elites (n=17) and personal observations of researcher. 2) Ranking the extracted variables from 1-5 by 13 tourism experts in Isfahan Cultural Heritage, Handcrafts and Tourism Organization (ICHTO). 3) Assigning weights to the ranked variables using Expert Choice Software and the method of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). 4) Defining the Total Weighted Score (TWS) for each part of SWOT chart. 5) Identifying the strategic position according to the TWS 6) Selecting the best development strategy based on the defined position using the Strategic Position and Action Evaluation (SPACE) matrix. 7) Assessing the Probability of Strategic Success (PSS) for the preferred strategy using relevant formulas. 8) Defining two feasible alternatives for sustainable development. Results and recommendations: Cultural heritage attractions were first-ranked variable in strength chart and also lack of sufficient amenities for one-day tourists (catering, restrooms, parking, and accommodation) was firs-ranked weakness. The strategic position was in ST (Strength-Threat) quadrant which is a maxi-mini position. According this position we would suggest ‘Competitive Strategy’ as a development strategy which means relying on strengths in order to neutralization threats. The result of Probability of Strategic Success assessment which was 0.6 shows that this strategy could be successful. The preferred approach for competitive strategy could be rebranding the market of tourism in this area. Rebranding the market can be achieved by two main alternatives which are based on the current strengths and threats: 1) Defining a ‘Heritage Corridor’ from first adjacent village to Abyaneh as a final destination. 2) Focus on ‘educational tourism’ versus mass tourism and also green tourism by developing agritourism in that corridor.

Keywords: Abyaneh village, rural tourism, SWOT analysis, sustainable strategies

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Authors: J. Stejskal, P. Hajek

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The goal of this article is the analysis of knowledge transfer at the regional level of the Czech Republic. We show how goals of enterprises´ innovative activities are related to the rate of cooperation with different actors within regional innovative systems as well as in other world regions. The results show that the most important partners of enterprises are their suppliers and clients in most Czech regions. The cooperation rate of enterprises correlates significantly mainly with enterprises´ efforts to enter new markets and reduce labour costs per unit output. The meaning of this cooperation decreases with the increase of partner’s distance. Regarding the type of a cooperating partner, cooperation within an enterprise had to do with the increase of market share and decrease of labour costs. On the other hand, cooperation with clients had to do with efforts to replace outdated products or processes or enter new markets. We can pay less attention to the cooperation with government authorities and organizations. The reasons for marginalization of this cooperation should be submitted to further detailed investigation.

Keywords: knowledge, transfer, innovative process, Czech republic, region

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Authors: A. Knezović

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21st century has transformed the labor market landscape in a way of posing new and different demands on university graduates as well as university lecturers, which means that the knowledge and academic skills students acquire in the course of their studies should be applicable and transferable from the higher education context to their future professional careers. Given the context of the Languages for Specific Purposes (LSP) classroom, the teachers’ objective is not only to teach the language itself, but also to prepare students to use that language as a medium to develop generic skills and competences. These include media and information literacy, critical and creative thinking, problem-solving and analytical skills, effective written and oral communication, as well as collaborative work and social skills, all of which are necessary to make university graduates more competitive in everyday professional environments. On the other hand, due to limitations of time and large numbers of students in classes, the frequently topic-centered syllabus of LSP courses places considerable focus on acquiring the subject matter and specialist vocabulary instead of sufficient development of skills and competences required by students’ prospective employers. This paper intends to explore some of those issues as viewed both by LSP lecturers and by business professionals in their respective surveys. The surveys were conducted among more than 50 LSP lecturers at higher education institutions in Croatia, more than 40 HR professionals and more than 60 university graduates with degrees in economics and/or business working in management positions in mainly large and medium-sized companies in Croatia. Various elements of LSP course content have been taken into consideration in this research, including reading and listening comprehension of specialist texts, acquisition of specialist vocabulary and grammatical structures, as well as presentation and negotiation skills. The ability to hold meetings, conduct business correspondence, write reports, academic texts, case studies and take part in debates were also taken into consideration, as well as informal business communication, business etiquette and core courses delivered in a foreign language. The results of the surveys conducted among LSP lecturers will be analyzed with reference to what extent those elements are included in their courses and how consistently and thoroughly they are evaluated according to their course requirements. Their opinions will be compared to the results of the surveys conducted among professionals from a range of industries in Croatia so as to examine how useful and important they perceive the same elements of the LSP course content in their working environments. Such comparative analysis will thus show to what extent the syllabi of LSP courses meet the demands of the employment market when it comes to the students’ language skills and competences, as well as transferable skills. Finally, the findings will also be compared to the observations based on practical teaching experience and the relevant sources that have been used in this research. In conclusion, the ideas and observations in this paper are merely open-ended questions that do not have conclusive answers, but might prompt LSP lecturers to re-evaluate the content and objectives of their course syllabi.

Keywords: languages for specific purposes (LSP), language skills, topic-centred syllabus, transferable skills

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Authors: Picha Sriprachan

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The increase in electricity prices affects the cost of high-rise building construction. The objectives of this research are to study the electrical cost, trend of electrical cost and to forecast electrical cost of high-rise building construction. The methods of this research are: 1) to study electrical payment formats, cost data collection methods, and the factors affecting electrical cost of high-rise building construction, 2) to study the quantity and trend of cumulative percentage of the electrical cost, and 3) to forecast the electrical cost for different types of high-rise buildings. The results of this research show that the average proportion between electrical cost and the value of the construction project is 0.87 percent. The proportion of electrical cost for residential, office and commercial, and hotel buildings are closely proportional. If construction project value increases, the proportion of electrical cost and the value of the construction project will decrease. However, there is a relationship between the amount of electrical cost and the value of the construction project. During the structural construction phase, the amount of electrical cost will increase and during structural and architectural construction phase, electrical cost will be maximum. The cumulative percentage of the electrical cost is related to the cumulative percentage of the high-rise building construction cost in the same direction. The amount of service space of the building, number of floors and the duration of the construction affect the electrical cost of construction. The electrical cost of construction forecasted by using linear regression equation is close to the electrical cost forecasted by using the proportion of electrical cost and value of the project.

Keywords: high-rise building construction, electrical cost, construction phase, architectural phase

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Authors: Mohammad Saraj Sharifzai, Keisuke Kitagawa, Mohammad Kamil Halimee, Javid Habib, Daishi Sakaguchi

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The overall goal of this paper is to examine the suitability and potential of the policies addressing the sustainability and affordability of housing for returnees, and to determine the impact of this policy on housing delivery for Afghan refugees. Housing is a central component of the settlement experience of refugees. A positive housing situation can facilitate many aspects of integration. Unaffordable, and unsafe housing, however, can cause disruptions in the entire settlement process. This paper aims to identify a suite of built forms for housing that is both affordable and environmentally sustainable for Afghan refugees. The result was the development of a framework that enables the assessment of the overall performance of various types of housing development in all zones of the country. There is very little evidence that the present approach of housing provision to the vagaries of market forces has provided affordable housing, especially for Afghan refugees. There is a need to incorporate social housing into the policy to assist people who cannot afford to have their own houses.

Keywords: Afghan refugees, housing policy, affordability, social housing, housing provision, environmental sustainability principles, resettlement

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Authors: Raymond Limen Njinga, Adeneye Samuel Olaolu, Akinyode Ojumoola Ajimo

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Introduction: Measurement of entrance dose and dose at different depths is essential to avoid overdose and underdose of patients. The aim of this study is to verify the variation in the absorbed dose using a water-equivalent material. Materials and Methods: The plastic phantom was arranged on the couch of the halcyon linear accelerator by Varian, with the farmer ionization chamber inserted and connected to the electrometer. The image of the setup was taken using the High-Quality Single 1280x1280x16 higher on the service mode to check the alignment with the isocenter. The beam quality TPR₂₀,₁₀ (Tissue phantom ratio) was done to check the beam quality of the machine at a field size of 10 cm x 10 cm. The calibration was done using SAD type set-up at a depth of 5 cm. This process was repeated for ten consecutive weeks, and the values were recorded. Results: The results of the beam output for the teletherapy machine were satisfactory and accepted in comparison with the commissioned measurement of 0.62. The beam quality TPR₂₀,₁₀ (Tissue phantom ratio) was reasonable with respect to the beam quality of the machine at a field size of 10 cm x 10 cm. Conclusion: The results of the beam quality and the absorbed dose rate showed a good consistency over the period of ten weeks with the commissioned measurement value.

Keywords: linear accelerator, absorbed dose rate, isocenter, phantom, ionization chamber

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Authors: S. Obregon-Cano, R. Moreno-Rojas, E. Cartea-Gonzalez, A. De Haro-Bailon

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The potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for screening the total glucosinolate (t-GSL) content, and also, the aliphatic glucosinolates gluconapin (GNA), progoitrin (PRO) and glucobrassicanapin (GBN) in turnip greens and turnip tops was assessed. This crop is grown for edible leaves and stems for human consumption. The reference values for glucosinolates, as they were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography on the vegetable samples, were regressed against different spectral transformations by modified partial least-squares (MPLS) regression (calibration set of samples n= 350). The resulting models were satisfactory, with calibration coefficient values from 0.72 (GBN) to 0.98 (tGSL). The predictive ability of the equations obtained was tested using a set of samples (n=70) independent of the calibration set. The determination coefficients and prediction errors (SEP) obtained in the external validation were: GNA=0.94 (SEP=3.49); PRO=0.41 (SEP=1.08); GBN=0.55 (SEP=0.60); tGSL=0.96 (SEP=3.28). These results show that the equations developed for total glucosinolates, as well as for gluconapin can be used for screening these compounds in the leaves and stems of this species. In addition, the progoitrin and glucobrassicanapin equations obtained can be used to identify those samples with high, medium and low contents. The calibration equations obtained were accurate enough for a fast, non-destructive and reliable analysis of the content in GNA and tGSL directly from NIR spectra. The equations for PRO and GBN can be employed to identify samples with high, medium and low contents.

Keywords: brassica rapa, glucosinolates, gluconapin, NIRS, turnip greens

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Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

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Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Shun-Qi Zhang, Shu-Yang Zhang, Min Chen, , Jing Bai

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Piezoelectric laminated smart structures can be subjected to the strong driving electric field, which may result in large displacements and rotations. In one hand, piezoelectric materials usually behave very significant material nonlinear effects under strong electric fields. On the other hand, thin-walled structures undergoing large displacements and rotations exist nonnegligible geometric nonlinearity. In order to give a precise prediction of piezo laminated smart structures under the large electric field, this paper develops a finite element (FE) model accounting for material nonlinearity (piezoelectric part) and geometric nonlinearity based on the first order shear deformation (FSOD) hypothesis. The proposed FE model is first validated by both experimental and numerical examples from the literature. Afterwards, it is applied to simulate for plate and shell structures with multiple piezoelectric patches under the strong applied electric field. From the simulation results, it shows that large discrepancies occur between linear and nonlinear predictions for piezoelectric laminated structures driving at the strong electric field. Therefore, both material and geometric nonlinearities should be taken into account for piezoelectric structures under strong electric.

Keywords: piezoelectric smart structures, finite element analysis, geometric nonlinearity, electroelastic material nonlinearities

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Authors: Minhee Son, Kyung Nam Kim

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This study explores the plan of the Korean and Japanese governments to transition into the hydrogen economy. Two motor companies, Hyundai Motor Company from Korea and Toyota from Japan, released the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle to monopolize the green energy automobile market. Although, they are the main countries which emit greenhouse gas, hydrogen energy can bring from a certain industry places, such as chemical plants and steel mills. Recent, the two countries have been focusing on the hydrogen industry including a fuel cell vehicle, a hydrogen station, a fuel cell plant, a residential fuel cell. The purpose of this paper is to find out the differences of the policies in the two countries to be hydrogen societies. We analyze the behavior of the public and private sectors in Korea and Japan about hydrogen energy and fuel cells for the transition of the hydrogen economy. Finally we show the similarities and differences of both countries in hydrogen fuel cells. And some cities have feature such as Hydrogen cities. Hydrogen energy can make impact environmental sustainability.

Keywords: fuel cell, hydrogen city, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, hydrogen station, hydrogen energy

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Authors: Aleksandar Chonevski

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The free-market economy provides many opportunities for entrepreneurship or starting one’s own business, attracting many students to study business at for-profit colleges in the United States. This is also true for international students, many of whom are filled with the hope of making a better life for themselves and their families through entrepreneurial endeavors. This qualitative research showed that not all graduates business students start their own business. In investigating this phenomenon, the effectiveness of entrepreneurship curricula at international colleges needs to be examined in order to adjust, improve and reform entrepreneurship curricula. This qualitative study will explore how business skills learned in college for-profit play a role in the entrepreneurial readiness of undergraduate business students in the south Florida. Business curricula helps international students achieve goals and transform their actions to understand challenges in a corporate society. Students will be interviewed to gain information about the students’ experience with entrepreneurship curricula in a for-profit college in south Florida.

Keywords: business skills, college curriculum, entrepreneurial readiness, international students

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Authors: Narendra Babu Bommenahalli Veerabhadrappa

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Teaching sustainability concepts along with profit maximizing philosophy of business in management education is a challenge. This paper explores and evaluates various learning models to inculcate sustainability concepts in management education. The paper explains about a new pedagogy that was tested in a business management school (Indus Business Academy, Bangalore, India) to teach sustainability. The pedagogy was designed by intertwining concepts related to sustainability with digital marketing concepts. As part of this experimental method, students (in groups) were assigned with various topics of sustainability and were asked to work with concepts of digital marketing and thus market the concepts of sustainability. The paper explains as a case study as to how sustainability was integrated with digital marketing tools and how learning towards sustainability was facilitated. It also explains the outcomes of this pedagogical method, in terms of inculcating sustainability concepts amongst management students as well as marketing and proliferation of sustainability concepts to bring about the behavioral changes amongst target audience towards sustainability.

Keywords: management-education, pedagogy, sustainability, behavior

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Authors: Khalid Ali, Manar Jammal

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In order to meet the stringent latency and reliability requirements of the upcoming 5G networks, Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) have been proposed. The virtualization of O-RAN has allowed it to be treated as a Network Function Virtualization (NFV) architecture, while its components are considered Virtualized Network Functions (VNFs). Hence, intelligent Machine Learning (ML) based solutions can be utilized to apply different resource management and allocation techniques on O-RAN. However, intelligently allocating resources for O-RAN VNFs can prove challenging due to the dynamicity of traffic in mobile networks. Network providers need to dynamically scale the allocated resources in response to the incoming traffic. Elastically allocating resources can provide a higher level of flexibility in the network in addition to reducing the OPerational EXpenditure (OPEX) and increasing the resources utilization. Most of the existing elastic solutions are reactive in nature, despite the fact that proactive approaches are more agile since they scale instances ahead of time by predicting the incoming traffic. In this work, we propose and evaluate traffic forecasting models based on the ML algorithm. The algorithms aim at predicting future O-RAN traffic by using previous traffic data. Detailed analysis of the traffic data was carried out to validate the quality and applicability of the traffic dataset. Hence, two ML models were proposed and evaluated based on their prediction capabilities.

Keywords: O-RAN, traffic forecasting, NFV, ARIMA, LSTM, elasticity

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Authors: Anthony George Armiger II

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the counternarcotic strategies of US government agencies in Afghanistan from 2001-2014. Despite a heavy US presence in the country, Afghanistan currently accounts for 80% of opium production worldwide and remains a key contributor to the global drug market. This paper argues that the divergent counternarcotic strategies of various US government agencies on the ground in Afghanistan are a product of the organizational differences amongst those agencies and that those differences can challenge the implementation of counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan. To gain a more in-depth perspective, this paper analyzes the counternarcotic strategies of two US government agencies in Afghanistan; the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Utilizing the framework of the organizational behavior model of organizational theory, this paper will highlight the varying organizational interests, opinions, standard operating procedures, and routines of both of the government agencies. The paper concludes with implications on counternarcotics, as well as the counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and provides recommendations for future research on foreign policy and counternarcotics.

Keywords: Afghanistan, drug policy, organizational theory, United States foreign policy

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Authors: Paulina Ramirez Leal

Abstract:

Current debates have examined the effects of market-oriented development on gentrification, as well as the role of urban renewal, interventions, and planning policy in exacerbating this phenomenon. Despite the growing body of research recognizing the social impacts of gentrification, to date, there has been very little research directly investigating how resisting gentrification increases social cohesion, a crucial dimension of urban resilience. This contribution set out to explore these social impacts while identifying the different forms of protest and expressions of resistance to gentrification in Monterrey’s city center. The methods employed include documentary analysis and qualitative methods such as surveys and photographic documentation. Monterrey’s city center's ongoing process of gentrification illustrates the impacts of planning policies, specifically TOD. Some of the unintended consequences of the policy have resulted in inhabitants facing forced inner migration and displacement caused by vandalism of their homes and neighborhoods, as well as losing part of their urban identity.

Keywords: gentrification, social impacts, neighborhood identity, urban resilience, Monterrey’s City Center

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Authors: Helio Arthur Reis Irigaray, Fabricio Stocker

Abstract:

This study aims to discover the extent to which affinity groups effectively act to combat inequalities, promote diversity, and contribute to the inclusion of non-hegemonic groups in the work environment. To this end, we have built empirical research, in which we interviewed 36 leaders and members of the collectives of non-hegemonic groups, namely women, blacks, and LGBTQ. With the proper authorization of the participants, their interviews were transcribed and submitted for critical analysis of the discourse. The field revealed that collectives are the result of the articulation of non-hegemonic groups, which create and participate in legitimate and institutional spaces to promote diversity. We also identified that diversity actions have happened as a market trend and reproduced mimetically. As the largest companies implement these actions, they become benchmarking and thus create a flow that is reproduced by other companies. However, there is no effective change in the structures that could promote inclusion and belonging. We state that a diverse group of employees are not enough to claim that the organization is diverse and inclusive. There remains much more to discuss and delve into deeply, including gender, diversity, and intersectionality.

Keywords: diversity, inclusion, collectives, affinity groups, employee resource groups

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Authors: Romain Ben Taleb, Aurélie Montarnal, Matthieu Lauras, Mathieu Dahan, Romain Miclo

Abstract:

To be competitive and sustainable, any company has to maximize its value. However, unlike listed companies that can assess their values based on market shares, most Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are non-listed cannot have direct and live access to this critical information. Traditional accounting reports only give limited insights to SME decision-makers about the real impact of their day-to-day decisions on the company’s performance and value. Most of the time, an SME’s financial valuation is made one time a year as the associated process is time and resource-consuming, requiring several months and external expertise to be completed. To solve this issue, we propose in this paper a value-oriented metamodel that enables real-time and dynamic assessment of the SME’s value based on the large definition of their assets. These assets cover a wider scope of resources of the company and better account for immaterial assets. The proposal, which is illustrated in a case study, discusses the benefits of incorporating assets in the SME valuation.

Keywords: SME, metamodel, decision support system, financial valuation, assets

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Authors: Hui-Min Lai, Chin-Pin Chen, Yung-Fu Chang

Abstract:

The expectation-confirmation model (ECM) is one of the most widely used models for evaluating information system continuance, and this model has been extended to other study backgrounds, or expanded with other theoretical perspectives. However, combining ECM with other theories or investigating the background problem may produce some disparities, thus generating inaccurate conclusions. Habit is considered to be an important factor that influences the user’s continuance behavior. This paper thus critically examines seven pairs of relationships from the original ECM and the habit variable. A meta-analysis was used to tackle the development of ECM research over the last 10 years from a range of journals and conference papers published in 2005–2014. Forty-six journal articles and 19 conference papers were selected for analysis. The results confirm our prediction that a high effect size for the seven pairs of relationships was obtained (ranging from r=0.386 to r=0.588). Furthermore, a meta-analytic structural equation modeling was performed to simultaneously test all relationships. The results show that habit had a significant positive effect on continuance intention at p<=0.05 and that the six other pairs of relationships were significant at p<0.10. Based on the findings, we refined our original research model and an alternative model was proposed for understanding and predicting information system continuance. Some theoretical implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Expectation-confirmation theory, Expectation-confirmation model, Meta-analysis, meta-analytic structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Regina Chua

Abstract:

To reduce the costs of re-fielding a large survey, a Random Forest classifier was applied to measure the accuracy of classifying individuals into their assigned segments with the fewest possible questions. Given a long survey, one needed to determine the most predictive ten or fewer questions that would accurately assign new individuals to custom segments. Furthermore, the solution needed to be quick in its classification and usable in non-Python environments. In this paper, a supervised Random Forest classifier was modeled on a dataset with 7,000 individuals, 60 questions, and 254 features. The Random Forest consisted of an iterative collection of individual decision trees that result in a predicted segment with robust precision and recall scores compared to a single tree. A random 70-30 stratified sampling for training the algorithm was used, and accuracy trade-offs at different depths for each segment were identified. Ultimately, the Random Forest classifier performed at 87% accuracy at a depth of 10 with 20 instead of 254 features and 10 instead of 60 questions. With an acceptable accuracy in prioritizing feature selection, new tools were developed for non-Python environments: a worksheet with a formulaic version of the algorithm and an embedded function to predict the segment of an individual in real-time. Random Forest was determined to be an optimal classification model by its feature selection, performance, processing speed, and flexible application in other environments.

Keywords: machine learning, supervised learning, data science, random forest, classification, prediction, predictive modeling

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