Search results for: generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation

Authors: Vinod K. Singh, S. G. Chung

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The degree of structuration of Busan clays at the mouth of Nakdong River mouth was highly influenced by the depositional environment, i.e., flow of the river stream, marine regression, and transgression during the sedimentation process. As a result, the geotechnical properties also varies along the depth with change in degree of structuration. Thus, the in-situ tests such as cone penetration test (CPT) could not be used to predict various geotechnical properties properly by using the conventional empirical methods. In this paper, the shear wave velocity (Vs) was measured from the field using the seismic dilatometer. The Vs was also measured in the laboratory from high quality undisturbed and remolded samples using bender element method to evaluate the degree of structuration. The degree of structuration was quantitatively defined by the modulus ratio of undisturbed to remolded soil samples which is found well correlated with the normalized void ratio (e0/eL) where eL is the void ratio at the liquid limit. It is revealed that the empirical method based on laboratory results incorporating e0/eL can predict Vs from the field more accurately. Thereafter, the CPT based empirical method was developed to estimate the shear wave velocity taking the effect of structuration in the consideration. The developed method was found to predict shear wave velocity reasonably for Busan clays.

Keywords: level of structuration, normalized modulus, normalized void ratio, shear wave velocity, site characterization

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Authors: Apostolos Lagarias, Anastasia Stratigea

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Coastal urbanization is heavily affecting the Mediterranean, taking the form of linear urban sprawl along the coastal zone. This process is posing extreme pressure on ecosystems, leading to an unsustainable model of growth. The aim of this research is to analyze coastal urbanization patterns in the Mediterranean using High-resolution multi-temporal data provided by the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) database. Methodology involves the estimation of a set of spatial metrics characterizing the density, aggregation/clustering and dispersion of built-up areas. As case study areas, the Spanish Coast and the Adriatic Italian Coast are examined. Coastalization profiles are examined and selected sub-areas massively affected by tourism development and suburbanization trends (Costa Blanca/Murcia, Costa del Sol, Puglia, Emilia-Romagna Coast) are analyzed and compared. Results show that there are considerable differences between the Spanish and the Italian typologies of spatial development, related to the land use structure and planning policies applied in each case. Monitoring and analyzing spatial patterns could inform integrated Mediterranean strategies for coastal areas and redirect spatial/environmental policies towards a more sustainable model of growth

Keywords: coastalization, Mediterranean, multi-temporal, urban sprawl, spatial metrics

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Authors: M. Paraipan, V. M. Javadova, S. I. Tyutyunnikov

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The concept of energy amplifier or accelerator driven system (ADS) involves the use of a particle accelerator coupled with a nuclear reactor. The accelerated particle beam generates a supplementary source of neutrons, which allows the subcritical functioning of the reactor, and consequently a safe exploitation. The harder neutron spectrum realized ensures a better incineration of the actinides. The almost generalized opinion is that the optimal beam for ADS is represented by protons with energy around 1 GeV (gigaelectronvolt). In the present work, a systematic analysis of the energy gain for proton beams with energy from 0.5 to 3 GeV and ion beams from deuteron to neon with energies between 0.25 and 2 AGeV is performed. The target is an assembly of metallic U-Pu-Zr fuel rods in a bath of lead-bismuth eutectic coolant. The rods length is 150 cm. A beryllium converter with length 110 cm is used in order to maximize the energy released in the target. The case of a linear accelerator is considered, with a beam intensity of 1.25‧10¹⁶ p/s, and a total accelerator efficiency of 0.18 for proton beam. These values are planned to be achieved in the European Spallation Source project. The energy gain G is calculated as the ratio between the energy released in the target to the energy spent to accelerate the beam. The energy released is obtained through simulation with the code Geant4. The energy spent is calculating by scaling from the data about the accelerator efficiency for the reference particle (proton). The analysis concerns the G values, the net power produce, the accelerator length, and the period between refueling. The optimal energy for proton is 1.5 GeV. At this energy, G reaches a plateau around a value of 8 and a net power production of 120 MW (megawatt). Starting with alpha, ion beams have a higher G than 1.5 GeV protons. A beam of 0.25 AGeV(gigaelectronvolt per nucleon) ⁷Li realizes the same net power production as 1.5 GeV protons, has a G of 15, and needs an accelerator length 2.6 times lower than for protons, representing the best solution for ADS. Beams of ¹⁶O or ²⁰Ne with energy 0.75 AGeV, accelerated in an accelerator with the same length as 1.5 GeV protons produce approximately 900 MW net power, with a gain of 23-25. The study of the evolution of the isotopes composition during irradiation shows that the increase in power production diminishes the period between refueling. For a net power produced of 120 MW, the target can be irradiated approximately 5000 days without refueling, but only 600 days when the net power reaches 1 GW (gigawatt).

Keywords: accelerator driven system, ion beam, electrical power, energy gain

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Authors: Margarita Gáfaro, Karelys Guzmán, Paola Poveda

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This paper establishes the theoretical aspects that explain the barriers to accessing credit for small agricultural producers in developing countries and identifies successful policy experiences to mitigate them. We will test two hypotheses. The first one is that information asymmetries, high transaction costs and high-risk exposure limit the supply of credit to small agricultural producers in developing countries. The second hypothesis is that low levels of financial education and productivity and high uncertainty about the returns of agricultural activity limit the demand for credit. To test these hypotheses, a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on access to rural credit in developing countries will be carried out. The first part of this review focuses on theoretical models that incorporate information asymmetries in the credit market and analyzes the interaction between these asymmetries and the characteristics of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Some of the characteristics we will focus on are the absence of collateral, the underdevelopment of the judicial systems and insurance markets, and the high dependence on climatic factors of production technologies. The second part of this review focuses on the determinants of credit demand by small agricultural producers, including the profitability of productive projects, security conditions, risk aversion or loss, financial education, and cognitive biases, among others. There are policies that focus on resolving these supply and demand constraints and managing to improve credit access. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to present a review of effective policies that have promoted access to credit for smallholders in the world. For this, information available in policy documents will be collected. This information will be complemented by interviews with officials in charge of the design and execution of these policies in a subset of selected countries. The information collected will be analyzed in light of the conceptual framework proposed in the first two parts of this section. The barriers to access to credit that each policy attempts to resolve and the factors that could explain its effectiveness will be identified.

Keywords: agricultural economics, credit access, smallholder, developing countries

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Authors: Eyup Dogan

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The number of research articles analyzing the integration properties of energy variables has rapidly increased in the energy literature for about a decade. The stochastic behaviors of energy variables are worth knowing due to several reasons. For instance, national policies to conserve or promote energy consumption, which should be taken as shocks to energy consumption, will have transitory effects in energy consumption if energy consumption is found to be stationary in one country. Furthermore, it is also important to know the order of integration to employ an appropriate econometric model. Despite being an important subject for applied energy (economics) and having a huge volume of studies, several known limitations still exist with the existing literature. For example, many of the studies use aggregate energy consumption and national level data. In addition, a huge part of the literature is either multi-country studies or solely focusing on the U.S. This is the first study in the literature that considers a form of energy consumption by sectors at sub-national level. This research study aims at investigating unit root properties of electricity consumption for 12 regions of Turkey by four sectors in addition to total electricity consumption for the purpose of filling the mentioned limits in the literature. In this regard, we analyze stationarity properties of 60 cases . Because the use of multiple unit root tests make the results robust and consistent, we apply Dickey-Fuller unit root test based on Generalized Least Squares regression (DFGLS), Phillips-Perron unit root test (PP) and Zivot-Andrews unit root test with one endogenous structural break (ZA). The main finding of this study is that electricity consumption is trend stationary in 7 cases according to DFGLS and PP, whereas it is stationary process in 12 cases when we take into account the structural change by applying ZA. Thus, shocks to electricity consumption have transitory effects in those cases; namely, agriculture in region 1, region 4 and region 7, industrial in region 5, region 8, region 9, region 10 and region 11, business in region 4, region 7 and region 9, total electricity consumption in region 11. Regarding policy implications, policies to decrease or stimulate the use of electricity have a long-run impact on electricity consumption in 80% of cases in Turkey given that 48 cases are non-stationary process. On the other hand, the past behavior of electricity consumption can be used to predict the future behavior of that in 12 cases only.

Keywords: unit root, electricity consumption, sectoral data, subnational data

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Authors: Teris Cheung, Joyce Yuen Ting Lam, Kwan Hin Fong, Yuen Shan Ho, Tim Man Ho Li, Andy Choi-Yeung Tse, Cheng-Ta Li, Calvin Pak-Wing Cheng, Roland Beisteiner

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Transcranial pulse stimulation (TPS) is a non-intrusive brain stimulation technology that has been proven effective in older adults with mild neurocognitive disorders and adults with major depressive disorder. Given these robust evidences, TPS might be an adjunct treatment options in neuropsychiatric disorders, for example, autism spectrum disorder (ASD) – which is a common neurodevelopmental disorder in children. This trial aimed to investigate the effects of TPS on right temporoparietal junction, a key node for social cognition for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and to examine the association between TPS, executive functions and social functions. Design: This trial adopted a two-armed (verum TPS group vs. sham TPS group), double-blinded, randomized, sham-controlled design. Sampling: 32 subjects aged between 12 and 17, diagnosed with ASD were recruited. All subjects were computerized randomized into either verum TPS group or the sham TPS group on a 1:1 ratio. All subjects undertook functional MRI before and after the TPS interventions. Intervention: Six 30-min TPS sessions were administered to subjects in 2 weeks’ time on alternate days assessing neural connectivity changes. Baseline measurements and post-TPS evaluation of the ASD symptoms, executive functions, and social functions were conducted. Participants were followed up at 2-weeks, at 1-month and 3-month, assessing the short-and long-term sustainability of the TPS intervention. Data analysis: Generalized Estimating Equations with repeated measures were used to analyze the group and time difference. Missing data were managed by multiple imputations. The level of significance was set at p < 0.05. To our best knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the efficacy and safety of TPS among adolescents with ASD in Hong Kong and nationwide. Results emerging from this study will develop insight on whether TPS can be used as an adjunct treatment on ASD in neuroscience and clinical psychiatry. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT05408793.

Keywords: adolescents, autism spectrum disorder, neuromodulation, rct, transcranial pulse stimulation

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Authors: Somayeh Akrami, Habib Onsori, Elham Tahmassebian

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Species of Anemone narcissiflora is belonged to Anemone genus of Ranunculaceae family. This species has two subspecies named narcissiflora and willdenowii which the latest is recorded in Iran in 2010. Some samples of A. narcissiflora is gathered from kuhkamar-zonouz region of East -Azerbaijan province, Iran to study the genetic diversity of the species by using RAPD molecular markers, and estimation of genetic diversity were evaluated with the using 10mer RAPD primers by PCR-RAPD method. 39 polymorphic bands were produced from the six primers used in this technique that the maximum band is related to the RP1 primer, the lowest band is related to the RP7 and the average band for all primers were 6.5 polymorphic bands. Cluster analysis of samples in done by UPGMA method in NTSYSpc 2.02 software. Dendrogram resulting from migrating bands showed that the studied samples can be divided into two groups. The first group includes samples with 1-2 flowers and the second group consists of two sub-groups which the first subgroup consists of samples with 3-5 flowers, and the second subgroup consists of samples with 6-7 flowers. The results of the comparison and analysis of the data obtained from RAPD technique and similarity matrix represents the genetic variation between collected samples. This study shows that RAPD markers can determine the polymorphisms between different genotypes of A. narcissiflora and their hybrids. So RAPD technique can serve as a suitable molecular method to determine the genetic diversity of samples.

Keywords: Anemone narcissiflora, genetic diversity, RAPD-PCR

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Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Haemophilus influenzae Type B (Hib) cause infections of pneumonia, meningitis, epiglottises and other invasive disease exclusively among children under age five. Occurrence of these infections may impair child growth by causing micronutrient deficiency. Using longitudinal data from first and second waves of Young Lives Study conducted in India during 2002 and 2006-07 respectively and multivariable logistic regression models (using generalised estimation equation to take into account the cluster nature of sample), this study aims to examine the impact of Hib vaccination on child anthropometric outcomes (stunting, underweight and wasting) in India. Bivariate result shows that, a higher percent of children were stunted and underweight among those who were not vaccinated against Hib (39% & 48% respectively) as compare to those who were vaccinated (31% and 39% respectively).The risk of childhood stunting and underweight was significantly lower among children who were vaccinated against Hib (odds ratio: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62-0.96 and odds ratio: 0.79, 95% C.I: 0.64-0.98 respectively) as compare to the unvaccinated children. No significant association was found between vaccination status against Hib and childhood wasting. Moreover, in the statistical models, about 13% of stunting and 12% of underweight could be attributable to lack of vaccination against Hib in India. Study concludes that vaccination against Hib- in addition to being a major intervention for reducing childhood infectious disease and mortality- can be consider as a potential tool for reducing the burden of undernutrition in India. Therefore, the Government of India must include the vaccine against Hib into the Universal Immunization Programme in India.

Keywords: Haemophilus influenzae Type-B, Stunting, Underweight, Wasting, Young Lives Study (YLS), India

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Authors: Seolah Lee, Yoohyk Jang, Soyoung Lee, Kon Chu, Sang Kun Lee

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Objective: The International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) currently suggests a topiramate serum level range of 5-20 mg/L. However, numerous institutions have observed substantial drug response at lower levels. This study aims to investigate the correlation between topiramate serum levels, drug responsiveness, and adverse events to establish a more accurate and tailored therapeutic range. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed topiramate serum samples collected between January 2017 and January 2022 at Seoul National University Hospital. Clinical data, including serum levels, antiseizure regimens, seizure frequency, and adverse events, were collected. Patient responses were categorized as "insufficient" (reduction in seizure frequency <50%) or "sufficient" (reduction ≥ 50%). Within the "sufficient" group, further subdivisions included seizure-free and tolerable seizure subgroups. A population pharmacokinetic model estimated serum levels from spot measurements. ROC curve analysis determined the optimal serum level cut-off. Results: A total of 389 epilepsy patients, with 555 samples, were reviewed, having a mean dose of 178.4±117.9 mg/day and a serum level of 3.9±2.8 mg/L. Out of the samples, only 5.6% (n=31) exhibited insufficient response, with a mean serum level of 3.6±2.5 mg/L. In contrast, 94.4% (n=524) of samples demonstrated sufficient response, with a mean serum level of 4.0±2.8 mg/L. This difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.45). Among the 78 reported adverse events, logistic regression analysis identified a significant association between ataxia and serum concentration (p = 0.04), with an optimal cut-off value of 6.5 mg/L. In the subgroup of patients receiving monotherapy, those in the tolerable seizure group exhibited a significantly higher serum level compared to the seizure-free group (4.8±2.0 mg/L vs 3.4±2.3 mg/L, p < 0.01). Notably, patients in the tolerable seizure group displayed a higher likelihood of progressing into drug-resistant epilepsy during follow-up visits compared to the seizure-free group. Significance: This study proposed an optimal therapeutic concentration for topiramate based on the patient's responsiveness to the drug and the incidence of adverse effects. We employed a population pharmacokinetic model and analyzed topiramate serum levels to recommend a serum level below 6.5 mg/L to mitigate the risk of ataxia-related side effects. Our findings also indicated that topiramate dose elevation is unnecessary for suboptimal responders, as the drug's effectiveness plateaus at minimal doses.

Keywords: topiramate, therapeutic range, low dos, antiseizure effect

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Authors: Halefom Kidane

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This study aims to assess the wind resource potential and characterize the urban area wind patterns in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. The estimation and characterization of wind resources are crucial for sustainable urban planning, renewable energy development, and climate change mitigation strategies. A secondary data collection method was used to carry out the study. The collected data at 2 meters was analyzed statistically and extrapolated to the standard heights of 10-meter and 30-meter heights using the power law equation. The standard deviation method was used to calculate the value of scale and shape factors. From the analysis presented, the maximum and minimum mean daily wind speed at 2 meters in 2016 was 1.33 m/s and 0.05 m/s in 2017, 1.67 m/s and 0.14 m/s in 2018, 1.61m and 0.07 m/s, respectively. The maximum monthly average wind speed of Hawassa City in 2016 at 2 meters was noticed in the month of December, which is around 0.78 m/s, while in 2017, the maximum wind speed was recorded in the month of January with a wind speed magnitude of 0.80 m/s and in 2018 June was maximum speed which is 0.76 m/s. On the other hand, October was the month with the minimum mean wind speed in all years, with a value of 0.47 m/s in 2016,0.47 in 2017 and 0.34 in 2018. The annual mean wind speed was 0.61 m/s in 2016,0.64, m/s in 2017 and 0.57 m/s in 2018 at a height of 2 meters. From extrapolation, the annual mean wind speeds for the years 2016,2017 and 2018 at 10 heights were 1.17 m/s,1.22 m/s, and 1.11 m/s, and at the height of 30 meters, were 3.34m/s,3.78 m/s, and 3.01 m/s respectively/Thus, the site consists mainly primarily classes-I of wind speed even at the extrapolated heights.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, min-max normalization, wind speed

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Authors: Mohaammad Ahmadpanah, Amineh Akhondi, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ghaleiha, Leila Jahangard, Elham Salari

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Background: Working memory includes the capability to keep and manipulate information in a short period of time. This capability is the basis of complicated judgments and has been attended to as the specific and constant character of individuals. Children with attention deficit and hyperactivity are among the people suffering from deficiency in the active memory, and this deficiency has been attributed to the problem of frontal lobe. This study utilizes a new approach with suitable tasks and methods for training active memory and assessment of the effects of the trainings. Participants: The children participating in this study were of 7-15 year age, who were diagnosed by the psychiatrist and psychologist as hyperactive and attention deficit based on DSM-IV criteria. The intervention group was consisted of 8 boys and 6 girls with the average age of 11 years and standard deviation of 2, and the control group was consisted of 2 girls and 5 boys with an average age of 11.4 and standard deviation of 3. Three children in the test group and two in the control group were under medicinal therapy. Results: Working memory training meaningfully improved the performance in not-trained areas as visual-spatial working memory as well as the performance in Raven progressive tests which are a perfect example of non-verbal, complicated reasoning tasks. In addition, motional activities – measured based on the number of head movements during computerized measuring program – was meaningfully reduced in the medication group. The results of the second test showed that training similar exercise to teenagers and adults results in the improvement of cognition functions, as in hyperactive people. Discussion: The results of this study showed that the performance of working memory is improved through training, and these trainings are extended and generalized in other areas of cognition functions not receiving any training. Trainings resulted in the improvement of performance in the tasks related to prefrontal. They had also a positive and meaningful impact on the moving activities of hyperactive children.

Keywords: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, working memory, non-medical treatment, children

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Authors: S. J. M. Mohd Saleh, S. Guo

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Composite materials have become an important option for the primary structure of aircraft due to their design flexibility and ability to improve the overall performance. At present, the option for composite usage in aircraft component is largely based on experience, knowledge, benchmarking and partly market driven. An inevitable iterative design during the design stage and validation process will increase the development time and cost. This paper aims at presenting the correlation between laminate and composite thin-wall beam structure, which contains the theoretical and numerical investigations on stiffness estimation of composite aerostructures with applications to aircraft wings. Classical laminate theory and thin-walled beam theory were applied to define the correlation between 1-dimensional composite laminate and 2-dimensional composite beam structure, respectively. Then FE model was created to represent the 3-dimensional structure. A detailed study on stiffness matrix of composite laminates has been carried out to understand the effects of stacking sequence on the coupling between extension, shear, bending and torsional deformation of wing box structures for 1-dimensional, 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structures. Relationships amongst composite laminates and composite wing box structures of the same material have been developed in this study. These correlations will be guidelines for the design engineers to predict the stiffness of the wing box structure during the material selection process and laminate design stage.

Keywords: aircraft design, aircraft structures, classical lamination theory, composite structures, laminate theory, structural design, thin-walled beam theory, wing box design

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Authors: Donglian Sun, Yu Li, Paul Houser, Xiwu Zhan

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California experienced severe drought conditions in the past years. In this study, the drought conditions in California are analyzed using soil moisture anomalies derived from integrated optical and microwave satellite observations along with auxiliary land surface data. Based on the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) classifications, three typical drought conditions were selected for the analysis: extreme drought conditions in 2007 and 2013, severe drought conditions in 2004 and 2009, and normal conditions in 2005 and 2006. Drought is defined as negative soil moisture anomaly. To estimate soil moisture at high spatial resolutions, three approaches are explored in this study: the universal triangle model that estimates soil moisture from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST); the basic model that estimates soil moisture under different conditions with auxiliary data like precipitation, soil texture, topography, and surface types; and the refined model that uses accumulated precipitation and its lagging effects. It is found that the basic model shows better agreements with the USDM classifications than the universal triangle model, while the refined model using precipitation accumulated from the previous summer to current time demonstrated the closest agreements with the USDM patterns.

Keywords: soil moisture, high resolution, regional drought, analysis and monitoring

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Authors: Bhaumik Patel, Amit Gotecha

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Commercial centres of different hierarchy and sizes play a vital role in the growth and development of the city. Economic uncertainty and demand for space leads to more urban sprawl and emerging more commercial spaces. The study was focused on the understanding of various indicators affecting the commercial development that can help to solve many issues related to commercial urban development and can guide for future employment growth centre development, Accessibility, Infrastructure, Planning and development regulations and Market forces. The aim of the study was to review characteristics and identifying employment density of Commercial Employment Sub-centres by achieving objectives Understanding various employment sub-centres, Identifying characteristics and deriving behaviour of employment densities and Evaluating and comparing employment sub-centres for the Ahmedabad city. Commercial employment sub-centres one in old city (Kalupur), second in highly developed commercial (C.G.road-Ashram road) and third in the latest developing commercial area (Prahladnagar) were identified by distance from city centre, Land use diversity, Access to Major roads and Public transport, Population density in proximity, Complimentary land uses in proximity and Land price. Commercial activities were categorised into retail, wholesale and service sector and sub categorised into various activities. From the study, Time period of establishment of the unit is a critical parameter for commercial activity, building height, and land-use diversity. Employment diversity is also one parameter for the commercial centre. The old city has retail, wholesale and trading and higher commercial density concerning units and employment both. Prahladnagar area functioned as commercial due to market pressure and developed as more units rather than a requirement. Employment density is higher in the centre of the city, as far as distance increases from city centre employment density and unit density decreases. Characters of influencing employment density and unit density are distance from city centre, development type, establishment time period, building density, unit density, public transport accessibility and road connectivity.

Keywords: commercial employment sub-centres, employment density, employment diversity, unit density

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Authors: Khushi Kashyap, Pratibha Singh

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In the recent years increasing interest in vegetarian diets has been observed, a major problem in this type of diet is to provide the appropriate amount of protein .Value addition of food is current most talked topic because of increasing nutritional awareness among consumers today. An investigation was conducted to develop protein rich multi-millet hemp seed khakhra. The seeds of cannabis sativa L. have been a significant source of food for thousand of year. In recent years, hemp has not been thoroughly explored for its nutritional potential due to the mistaken belief regarding the cannabis plants. Methodology- two variations was prepared referencing standard recipe. Variation 1 was prepared using 25g ragi, 25g bajra,40g whole wheat flour with 10g hemp seed powder, variation 2(RF-25g,BF25g,WWF-35g,HS-15g). The product was subjected to sensory evolution by semi trained panel members using 9 point hedonic on 50 panelists. Result- result of the sensory evaluation revealed that the product incorporated with 15g of hemp seed were similar to control I texture, taste and overall quality and was more acceptable by the panelist and was selected as final product seed. On estimation of the nutrient content 30g of khakhra provides 107kcal of energy,12g protein,75g carbohydrate, and 9.6g of fats with shelf life of 3 months. Conclusion- khakhras can be eaten as a snack at any time of the day. hemp seed powder incorporated in it enhances its nutritive value and makes it more nutritious. It is suitable for consumption of all the age group.

Keywords: cannabis sativa, hemp, protein, seed

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Authors: Mohammad-Ali Latifi, Harry Bouwman

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Changes in the business environment accelerated dramatically over the last decades as a result of changes in technology, regulation, market, and competitors’ behavior. Firms need to change the way they do business in order to survive or maintain their growth. Innovating business model (BM) can create competitive advantages and enhance firm performance. However, many companies fail to achieve expected outcomes in practice, mostly due to irreversible fundamental changes in key components of the company’s BM. This leads to more ambiguity, uncertainty, and risks associated with business performance. However, the relationship among BM Innovation, moderating factors, and the firm’s overall performance is by and large ignored in the current literature. In this study, we identified twenty moderating factors from our comprehensive literature review. We categorized these factors based on two criteria regarding the extent to which: the moderating factors can be controlled and managed by firms, and they are generic or specific changes to the firms. This leads to four moderation groups. The first group is BM implementation, which includes management support, employees’ commitment, employees’ skills, communication, detailed plan. The second group is called BM practices, which consists of BM tooling, BM experimentation, the scope of change, speed of change, degree of novelty. The third group is Firm characteristics, including firm size, age, and ownership. The last group is called Industry characteristics, which considers the industry sector, competitive intensity, industry life cycle, environmental dynamism, high-tech vs. low-tech industry. Through collecting data from 508 European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and using the structural equation modeling technique, the developed moderation model was examined. Results revealed that all factors highlighted through these four groups moderate the relation between BMI and firm performance significantly. Particularly, factors related to BM-Implementation and BM-Practices are more manageable and would potentially improve firm overall performance. We believe that this result is more important for researchers and practitioners since the possibility of working on factors in Firm characteristics and Industry characteristics groups are limited, and the firm can hardly control and manage them to improve the performance of BMI efforts.

Keywords: business model innovation, firm performance, implementation, moderation

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Authors: M. Devaki, K. B. Jayanthi

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The identification of water bodies from satellite images has recently received a great deal of attention. Different methods have been developed to distinguish water bodies from various satellite images that vary in terms of time and space. Urban water identification issues body manifests in numerous applications with a great deal of certainty. There has been a sharp rise in the usage of satellite images to map natural resources, including urban water bodies and forests, during the past several years. This is because water and forest resources depend on each other so heavily that ongoing monitoring of both is essential to their sustainable management. The relevant elements from satellite pictures have been chosen using a variety of techniques, including machine learning. Then, a convolution neural network (CNN) architecture is created that can identify a superpixel as either one of two classes, one that includes water or doesn't from input data in a complex metropolitan scene. The deep learning technique, CNN, has advanced tremendously in a variety of visual-related tasks. CNN can improve classification performance by reducing the spectral-spatial regularities of the input data and extracting deep features hierarchically from raw pictures. Calculate the water body using the satellite image's resolution. Experimental results demonstrate that the suggested method outperformed conventional approaches in terms of water extraction accuracy from remote-sensing images, with an average overall accuracy of 97%.

Keywords: water body, Deep learning, satellite images, convolution neural network

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Syed Ahmed Salman

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Ethicality is essential in our daily activities, including personal and commercial activities. This is evidenced by referring to the historical development of the corporate governance and ethical guidelines. The first corporate governance guideline, i.e. Cadbury Report from U.K. focuses the responsibility of board members towards the shareholders only. Gradually, realising the need to take care of the society and community, stakeholders are now concerns of business entities. Consequently, later codes of corporate governance started extending the responsibility to the other stakeholders in addition to the shareholders. One prevailing corporate governance theory, i.e. stakeholder theory, has been widely used in the research to explore the effects of business entities on society. In addition, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) is the leading organisation which promotes social care from businesses for sustainable development. Conventionally, history shows that ethics is key to the long term success of businesses. Many organisations, societies, and regulators give full attention and consideration to ethics. Several countries have introduced ethical codes of conduct to direct trade activities. Similarly, Islam and other religions prohibit the practice of interest, uncertainty, and gambling because of its unethical nature. These prohibited practices are not at all good for the society, business, and any organisation especially as it is detrimental to the well-being of society. In order to avoid unethicality in the finance industry, Shari’ah scholars come out with the idea of Islamic finance which is free from the prohibited elements from the Islamic perspective. It can also be termed ethical finance. This paper highlights how Takaful as one of the Islamic finance products offers fair and just products to the contracting parties and the society. Takaful is framed based on ethical guidelines which are extracted from Shari’ah principles and divine sources such as the Quran and Sunnah. Takaful products have been widely offered all over the world, including in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries. It seems that it is gaining acceptance regardless of religion. This is evidence that Takaful is being accepted as an ethical financial product.

Keywords: ethics, insurance, Islamic finance, religion and takaful

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Authors: Zaki Abiza, Miguel Chavez, David M. Holman, Ruddy Brionnaud

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In this paper, the prediction of the aerodynamic behavior of the flow around a Finned Projectile will be validated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution, XFlow, based on the Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM). XFlow is an innovative CFD software developed by Next Limit Dynamics. It is based on a state-of-the-art Lattice-Boltzmann Method which uses a proprietary particle-based kinetic solver and a LES turbulent model coupled with the generalized law of the wall (WMLES). The Lattice-Boltzmann method discretizes the continuous Boltzmann equation, a transport equation for the particle probability distribution function. From the Boltzmann transport equation, and by means of the Chapman-Enskog expansion, the compressible Navier-Stokes equations can be recovered. However to simulate compressible flows, this method has a Mach number limitation because of the lattice discretization. Thanks to this flexible particle-based approach the traditional meshing process is avoided, the discretization stage is strongly accelerated reducing engineering costs, and computations on complex geometries are affordable in a straightforward way. The projectile that will be used in this work is the Army-Navy Basic Finned Missile (ANF) with a caliber of 0.03 m. The analysis will consist in varying the Mach number from M=0.5 comparing the axial force coefficient, normal force slope coefficient and the pitch moment slope coefficient of the Finned Projectile obtained by XFlow with the experimental data. The slope coefficients will be obtained using finite difference techniques in the linear range of the polar curve. The aim of such an analysis is to find out the limiting Mach number value starting from which the effects of high fluid compressibility (related to transonic flow regime) lead the XFlow simulations to differ from the experimental results. This will allow identifying the critical Mach number which limits the validity of the isothermal formulation of XFlow and beyond which a fully compressible solver implementing a coupled momentum-energy equations would be required.

Keywords: CFD, computational fluid dynamics, drag, finned projectile, lattice-boltzmann method, LBM, lift, mach, pitch

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Authors: Ana Breda, Catarina Cruz

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Daily, we face unpredictable events, often attributed to chance, as there is no justification for such an occurrence. Chance, understood as a source of uncertainty, is present in several aspects of human life, such as weather forecasts, dice rolling, and lottery. Surprisingly, humans and some animals can quickly adjust their behavior to handle efficiently doubly stochastic processes (random events with two layers of randomness, like unpredictable weather affecting dice rolling). This adjustment ability suggests that the human brain has built-in mechanisms for perceiving, understanding, and responding to simple probabilities. It also explains why current trends in mathematics education include probability concepts in official curriculum programs, starting from the third year of primary education onwards. In the first years of schooling, children learn to use a certain type of (specific) vocabulary such as: never, always, rarely, perhaps, likely, and unlikely, to help them to perceive and understand the probability of some events. These are keywords of crucial importance for their perception and understanding of probabilities. The development of the probabilistic concepts comes from facts and cause-effect sequences resulting from the subject's actions, as well as the notion of chance and intuitive estimates based on everyday experiences. As part of a junior summer school program, which took place at a Portuguese university, a non-formal learning experiment was carried out with 18 children in the 5th and 6th grades. This experience was designed to be implemented in a dynamic of a serious ice-breaking game, to assess their levels of probabilistic, critical, and creative thinking in understanding impossible, certain, equally probable, likely, and unlikely events, and, also, to gain insight into how the non-formal learning context influenced their achievements. The data analysis employs a mixed-methods approach, based on students' written productions, audio recordings, and researchers' field notes. This methodology allowed us to conclude that such an approach is an appropriate and helpful formative assessment tool.

Keywords: critical and creative thinking, non-formal mathematics learning, probabilistic thinking, serious game

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Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

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Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand, which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed, and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. Some voltage stability index-based approach for DG siting has been reported in the literature. However, most of the existing voltage stability indices, though sufficient, are found to be inaccurate, especially for overloaded power systems. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using a line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for DG siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical boundary index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement, and the performance was compared with DG placement using the Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation

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Authors: Reina Kawase, Yuzuru Matsuoka

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To mitigate climate change, to reduce CO2 emission from steel sector, energy intensive sector, is essential. One of the effective countermeasure is recycling of iron scrap and shifting to electric arc furnace. This research analyzes the feasibility of iron scrap recycling with considering demand-supply balance and quantifies the effective by CO2 emission reduction. Generally, the quality of steel made from iron scrap is lower than the quality of steel made from basic oxygen furnace. So, the constraint of demand side is goods-wise steel demand and that of supply side is generation of iron scap. Material Stock and Flow Model (MSFM_demand) was developed to estimate goods-wise steel demand and generation of iron scrap and was applied to 35 regions which aggregated countries in the world for 2005-2050. The crude steel production was estimated under two case; BaU case (No countermeasures) and CM case (With countermeasures). For all the estimation periods, crude steel production is greater than generation of iron scrap. This makes it impossible to substitute electric arc furnaces for all the basic oxygen furnaces. Even though 100% recycling rate of iron scrap, under BaU case, CO2 emission in 2050 increases by 12% compared to that in 2005. With same condition, 32% of CO2 emission reduction is achieved in CM case. With a constraint from demand side, the reduction potential is 6% (CM case).

Keywords: iron scrap recycling, CO2 emission reduction, steel demand, MSFM demand

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Authors: Dmitriy V. Chulkov

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Escalation of commitment is defined as continuation of a project after receiving negative information about it. While literature in management and psychology identified various factors contributing to escalation behavior, this phenomenon has received little analysis in economics, potentially due to the apparent irrationality of escalation. In this study, we present an economic model of escalation with asymmetric information in a principal-agent setup where the agents are responsible for a project selection decision and discover the outcome of the project before the principal. Our theoretical model complements the existing literature on several accounts. First, we link the incentive to escalate commitment to a project with the turnover decision by the manager. When a manager learns the outcome of the project and stops it that reveals that a mistake was made. There is an incentive to continue failing projects and avoid admitting the mistake. This incentive is enhanced when the agent may voluntarily resign from the firm before the outcome of the failing project is revealed, and thus not bear the full extent of reputation damage due to project failure. As long as some successful managers leave the firm for extraneous reasons, outside firms find it difficult to link failing projects with certainty to managers that left a firm. Second, we demonstrate that non-CEO managers have reputation concerns separate from those of the CEO, and thus may escalate commitment to projects they oversee, when such escalation can attenuate damage to reputation from impending project failure. Such incentive for escalation will be present for non-CEO managers if the CEO delegates responsibility for a project to a non-CEO executive. If reputation matters for promotion to the CEO, the incentive for a rising executive to escalate in order to protect reputation is distinct from that of a CEO. Third, our theoretical model is supported by empirical analysis of changes in the firm’s operations measured by the presence of discontinued operations at the time of turnover among the top four members of the top management team. Discontinued operations are indicative of termination of failing projects at a firm. The empirical results demonstrate that in a large dataset of over three thousand publicly traded U.S. firms for a period from 1993 to 2014 turnover by top executives significantly increases the likelihood that the firm discontinues operations. Furthermore, the type of turnover matters as this effect is strongest when at least one non-CEO member of the top management team leaves the firm and when the CEO departure is due to a voluntary resignation and not to a retirement or illness. Empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model and suggest that escalation of commitment is primarily observed in decisions by non-CEO members of the top management team.

Keywords: discontinued operations, escalation of commitment, executive turnover, top management teams

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Authors: Christina Van Wingerden

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This paper focuses on a sense of belonging, isolation, and the use of a learning management system as a “third space” for connection and community. Given student use of learning management systems (LMS) for courses on campuses, moderate to high use of social media and hand-held devices, the author explores the possibilities of LMS as a third space. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated student experiences of isolation, and research indicates that students who experience a sense of belonging have a greater likelihood for academic retention and success. The impacts on students of an LMS designed for student employee orientation and training were examined through a mixed methods approach, including a survey, individual interviews, and focus groups. The sample involved 250-450 undergraduate student employees at a US northwestern university. The goal of the study was to find out the efficiency and effectiveness of the orientation information for a wide range of student employees from multiple student affairs departments. And unexpected finding emerged within the study in 2015 and was noted again as a finding in the 2017 study. Students reported feeling like they individually connected to the department, and further to the university because of the LMS orientation. They stated they could see themselves as part of the university community and like they belonged. The orientation, through the LMS, was designed for and occurred online (asynchronous), prior to students traveling and beginning university life for the academic year. The students indicated connection and belonging resulting from some of the design features. With the onset of COVID-19 and prolonged sheltering in place in North America, as well as other parts of the world, students have been precluded from physically gathering to educate and learn. COVID-19 essentially paused face-to-face education in 2020. Media, governments, and higher education outlets have been reporting on widespread college student stress, isolation, loneliness, and sadness. In this context, the author conducted a current mixed methods study (online survey, online interviews) of students in advanced degree programs, like Ph.D. and Ed.D. specifically investigating isolation and sense of belonging. As a part of the study a prototype of a Canvas site was experienced by student interviewees for their reaction of this Canvas site prototype as a “third” space. Some preliminary findings of this study are presented. Doctoral students in the study affirmed the potential of LMS as a third space for community and social academic connection.

Keywords: COVID-19, isolation, learning management system, sense of belonging

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Authors: Aishat Abdul-Qadir Zubair

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Background: The absence of Shari’ah screening methodology for companies in Nigeria has further engineered the uncertainty surrounding the acceptability of investing in certain companies by people professing the religion of Islam due to the nature of the activities carried out by these companies. There are some existing shariah screening indices in other jurisdictions whose criteria can be used to check if a company or business is shariah-compliant or not. Examples such as FTSE, DJIM, Standard and Poor to mention just a few. What these indices have tried to do is to ensure that there are benchmarks to check with before investing in companies that carry out mixed activities in their business, wherein some are halal and others may be haram. Purpose: There have been numerous studies on the need to adopt certain screening methodologies as well as call for new methods in screening companies for shariah compliance in order to suit the investments needs of Muslims in other jurisdictions. It is, however, unclear how suitable these methodologies will be to Nigeria. This paper, therefore, seeks to address this gap to consider an appropriate screening methodology to be employed in Nigeria, drawing from the experience of other jurisdictions. Methods: This study employs a triangulation of both quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze the need for Shari’ah screening of companies in Nigeria. The qualitative method is used by way of ijtihad, and this study tries to apply some Islamic Principles of Maqasid al-shari’ah as well as Qawaid al-Fiqiyyah to analyze activities of companies in order to ensure that they are indeed Shari’ah compliant. In addition, using the quantitative data gathered from the interview survey, the perspective of the investors with regards to the need for Shari’ah screening of companies in Nigeria is further analyzed. Results: The result of the study shows that there is a lack of awareness from the teeming Muslim population in Nigeria on the need for Shari’ah screening of companies in Nigeria. The result further shows that there is the need to take into cognizance the peculiar nature of company activities in Nigeria before any particular Shari’ah screening methodology is adopted and setting the necessary benchmarks. Conclusion and Implications: The study concludes that there is the need to ensure that the conscious Muslims in Nigeria screen companies for Shari’ah compliance so that they can easily identify the companies to invest in. The paper, therefore, recommends that the Nigerian government need to come up with a screening methodology that will suit the peculiar nature of companies in Nigeria. The study thus has a direct implication on the Investment regulatory bodies in Nigeria such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as well as the investor Muslims.

Keywords: Shari'ah screening, Muslims, investors, companies

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Authors: Aniko Babits, Ahmad Daoud

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Introduction: The beach chair position (BCP) is a good approach to almost all types of shoulder procedures. However, moving an anaesthetized patient from the supine to sitting position may pose a risk of cerebral hypoperfusion and potential cerebral ischaemia as a result of significant reductions in blood pressure and cardiac output. Hypocapnia in ventilated patients and impaired blood flow to the vertebral artery due to hyperextension, rotation, or tilt of the head may have an impact too. Co-morbidities that may increase the risk of cerebral ischaemia in the BCP include diabetes with autonomic neuropathy, cerebrovascular disease, cardiac disease, severe hypertension, generalized vascular disease, history of fainting, and febrile conditions. Beach chair surgery requires a careful anaesthetic and surgical management to optimize patient safety and minimize the risk of adverse outcomes. Methods: We describe the necessary steps for optimal patient positioning and the aims of intraoperative management, including anaesthetic techniques to ensure patient safety in the BCP. Results: Regardless of the anaesthetic technique, adequate patient positioning is paramount in the BCP. The key steps to BCP are aimed at optimizing surgical success and minimizing the risk of severe neurovascular complications. The primary aim of anaesthetic management is to maintain cardiac output and mean arterial pressure (MAP) to protect cerebral perfusion. Blood pressure management includes treating a fall in MAP of more than 25% from baseline or a MAP less than 70 mmHg. This can be achieved by using intravenous fluids or vasopressors. A number of anaesthetic techniques could also improve cerebral oxygenation, including avoidance of intermittent positive pressure ventilation (IPPV) with general anaesthesia (GA), using regional anaesthesia, maintaining normocapnia and normothermia, and the application of compression stockings. Conclusions: In summary, BCP is a reliable and effective position to perform shoulder procedures. Simple steps to patient positioning and careful anaesthetic management could maximize patient safety and avoid unwanted adverse outcomes in patients undergoing surgery in BCP.

Keywords: beach chair position, cerebral oxygenation, cerebral perfusion, sitting position

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Authors: Maryam Jabeen

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In recent times, there has been a notable surge in attention towards diverse literacy concepts such as media literacy, information literacy, and digital literacy. These concepts have garnered escalating interest, spurring the emergence of novel approaches, particularly in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis. However, amidst discussions of crises, the domain of crisis literacy remains largely uncharted within academic exploration. Crisis literacy, also referred to as disaster literacy, denotes an individual's aptitude to not only comprehend but also effectively apply information, enabling well-informed decision-making and adherence to instructions about disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. This theoretical and descriptive study seeks to transcend foundational literacy concepts, underscoring the urgency for an in-depth exploration of crisis literacy and its interplay with the realm of media communication. Given the profound impact of the pandemic experience and the looming uncertainty of potential future crises, there arises a pressing need to elevate crisis literacy, or disaster literacy, towards heightened autonomy and active involvement within the spheres of critical disaster preparedness, recovery initiatives, and media communication domains. This research paper is part of my ongoing Ph.D. research study, which explores on a broader level the Encoding and decoding of media communications in relation to crisis literacy. The primary objective of this research paper is to expound upon a descriptive, theoretical research endeavor delving into this domain. The emphasis lies in highlighting the paramount significance of media communications in literacy of crisis, coupled with an accentuated focus on its role in providing information to marginalized populations amidst crises. In conclusion, this research bridges the gap in crisis literacy correlation to media communications exploration, advocating for a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics and its symbiotic relationship with media communications. It intends to foster a heightened sense of crisis literacy, particularly within marginalized communities, catalyzing proactive participation in disaster preparedness, recovery processes, and adept media interactions.

Keywords: covid-19, crisis literacy, crisis, marginalized, media and communications, pandemic, vulnerable people

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Authors: Stephane Laussac, Jacques Piazzola, Gilles Tedeschi

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Estimation of the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the climate evolution is an important scientific challenge. One of a major source of particles is constituted by the oceans through the generation of sea-spray aerosols. In coastal areas, marine aerosols can affect air quality through their ability to interact chemically and physically with other aerosol species and gases. The integration of accurate sea-spray emission terms in modeling studies is then required. However, it was found that sea-spray concentrations are not represented with the necessary accuracy in some situations, more particularly at short fetch. In this study, the WRF-Chem model was implemented on a North-Western Mediterranean coastal region. WRF-Chem is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model online-coupled with chemistry for investigation of regional-scale air quality which simulates the emission, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols simultaneously with the meteorology. One of the objectives was to test the ability of the WRF-Chem model to represent the fine details of the coastal geography to provide accurate predictions of sea spray evolution for different fetches and the anthropogenic aerosols. To assess the performance of the model, a comparison between the model predictions using a local emission inventory and the physicochemical analysis of aerosol concentrations measured for different wind direction on the island of Porquerolles located 10 km south of the French Riviera is proposed.

Keywords: sea-spray aerosols, coastal areas, sea-spray concentrations, short fetch, WRF-Chem model

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, friedman test, machine learning, statistical hypothesis testing

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