Search results for: velocity prediction program

Authors: Sunil Kumar Singal, Manoj Sood, Upendra Bajpai

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Instream technology is the upcoming sustainable approach in the hydro sector for energy harnessing. With well-known cross-sections and regulated supply, open channels are the most prominent locations for the installation of hydrokinetic turbines. The fluctuation in generated torque varies with site condition (flow depth and flow velocity), as well as with the type of turbine. The present experimental study aims to investigate the torque/power fluctuations of crossflow hydrokinetic turbines operating at different flow velocities and water depths. The flow velocity is varied from 1.0 m/s to 2.0 m/s. The complete assembly includes an open channel having dimensions of 0.3 m (depth) x 0.71 m (width) x 4.5 m (length), along with a lifting mechanism for varying the channel slope, a digital transducer for monitoring the torque, power, and rpm, a digital handheld water velocity meter for measuring the flow velocity. Further, a time series of torque, power, and rpm is plotted for a duration of 30 minutes showing the continuous operation of the turbine. A comparison of Savonius, Darrieus, and their improved twisted and helical blades is also presented in the study. A correlation has also been developed for assessing the hydropower generation from the installed turbine. The developed correlations will be very useful in the decision-making process for development at a site.

Keywords: darrieus turbine, flow velocity, open channel, savoinus turbine, water depth, hydropower

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Authors: Ehsan Pegah, Huabei Liu

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Determination of the internal friction angle (φ) in natural soil deposits is an important issue in geotechnical engineering. The main objective of this study was to examine the evaluation of this parameter in overconsolidated granular soil deposits by using the P-wave velocity and the anisotropic components of S-wave velocity (i.e., both the vertical component (SV) and the horizontal component (SH) of S-wave). To this end, seventeen pairs of P-wave and S-wave seismic refraction profiles were carried out at three different granular sites in Iran using non-invasive seismic wave methods. The acquired shot gathers were processed, from which the P-wave, SV-wave and SH-wave velocities were derived. The reference values of φ and overconsolidation ratio (OCR) in the soil deposits were measured through laboratory tests. By assuming cross-anisotropy of the soils, the P-wave and S-wave velocities were utilized to develop an equation for calculating the coefficient of lateral earth pressure at-rest (K₀) based on the theory of elasticity for a cross-anisotropic medium. In addition, to develop an equation for OCR estimation in granular geomaterials in terms of SH/SV velocity ratios, a general regression analysis was performed on the resulting information from this research incorporated with the respective data published in the literature. The calculated K₀ values coupled with the estimated OCR values were finally employed in the Mayne and Kulhawy formula to evaluate φ in granular soil deposits. The results showed that reliable values of φ could be estimated based on the seismic wave velocities. The findings of this study may be used as the appropriate approaches for economic and non-invasive determination of in-situ φ in granular soil deposits using the surface seismic surveys.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, overconsolidation ratio, granular soils, P-wave velocity, SV-wave velocity, SH-wave velocity

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Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

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At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

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Authors: Sadaf Sahar, Usman Qamar, Sadaf Ayaz

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In the software development lifecycle, the quality prediction techniques hold a prime importance in order to minimize future design errors and expensive maintenance. There are many techniques proposed by various researchers, but with the increasing complexity of the software lifecycle model, it is crucial to develop a flexible system which can cater for the factors which in result have an impact on the quality of the end product. These factors include properties of the software development process and the product along with its operation conditions. In this paper, a neural network (perceptron) based software quality prediction technique is proposed. Using this technique, the stakeholders can predict the quality of the resulting software during the early phases of the lifecycle saving time and resources on future elimination of design errors and costly maintenance. This technique can be brought into practical use using successful training.

Keywords: software quality, fuzzy logic, perception, prediction

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Authors: Reza Sabbagh, Linda Hasanovich, Aleksey Baldygin, David S. Nobes, Prashant R. Waghmare

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The capillary filling process is significantly important to study for numerous applications such as the under filling of the material in electronic packaging or liquid hydrocarbons seepage through porous structure. The approximation of the fluid being Newtonian, i.e., linear relationship between the shear stress and deformation rate cannot be justified in cases where the extent of non-Newtonian behavior of liquid governs the surface driven transport, i.e., capillarity action. In this study, the capillary action of a non-Newtonian fluid is not only analyzed, but also the modified generalized theoretical analysis for the capillary transport is proposed. The commonly observed three regimes: surface forces dominant (travelling air-liquid interface), developing flow (viscous force dominant), and developed regimes (interfacial, inertial and viscous forces are comparable) are identified. The velocity field along each regime is quantified with Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid in square shaped vertically oriented channel. Theoretical understanding of capillary imbibition process, particularly in the case of Newtonian fluids, is relied on the simplified assumption of a fully developed velocity profile which has been revisited for developing a modified theory for the capillary transport of non-Newtonian fluids. Furthermore, the development of the velocity profile from the entrance regime to the developed regime, for different power law fluids, is also investigated theoretically and experimentally.

Keywords: capillary, non-Newtonian flow, shadowgraphy, rising velocity

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Authors: A. A. A. Indira Pratyaksa, Achmad Zaki

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In every organization, there would be a demographic of young employees. They see themselves are the future leaders of the company. A special program needs to be prepared for them as a form of retention programs. Early Professional Program (EPD) must address challenges in the future. Aspects of the development of competence of young employees also become one of the answers in accelerating existing business processes. The role of the supervisor is the key success of EPD. Pertamina, thus, is better prepared to realize the vision and mission.

Keywords: young employee, competencies, development, leader, coaching

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Authors: M. Deyab, A. Al-Sabagh, S. Keera

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The effects of flow velocity, sand concentration, sand size and temperature on erosion-corrosion of carbon steel in oil sands slurry were studied by electrochemical polarization measurements. It was found that the anodic excursion spans of carbon steel in oil sands slurry are characterized by the occurrence of a well-defined anodic peak, followed by a passive region. The data reveal that increasing flow velocity, sand concentration and temperature enhances the anodic peak current density (jAP) and shifts pitting potential (Epit) towards more negative values. The variation of sand particle size does not have apparent effect on polarization behavior of carbon steel. The ratios of the erosion rate to corrosion rate (E/C) were calculated and discussed. The ratio of erosion to corrosion rates E/C increased with increasing the flow velocity, sand concentration, sand size and temperature indicating that an increasing slurry flow velocity, sand concentration, sand size and temperature resulted in an enhancement of the erosion effect.

Keywords: erosion-corrosion, steel, oil sands slurry, polarization

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Authors: Arun Sanjel, Greg Speegle

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Every second, massive amounts of data are generated, and Data Intensive Scalable Computing (DISC) frameworks have evolved into effective tools for analyzing such massive amounts of data. Since the underlying architecture of these distributed computing platforms is often new to users, building a DISC application can often be time-consuming and prone to errors. The automated conversion of a sequential program to a DISC program will consequently significantly improve productivity. However, synthesizing a user’s intended program from an input specification is complex, with several important applications, such as distributed program synthesizing and code refactoring. Existing works such as Tyro and Casper rely entirely on deductive synthesis techniques or similar program synthesis approaches. Our approach is to develop a data-driven synthesis technique to identify sequential components and translate them to equivalent distributed operations. We emphasize using reinforcement learning and unit testing as feedback mechanisms to achieve our objectives.

Keywords: program synthesis, distributed computing, reinforcement learning, unit testing, DISC

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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There are various types of analysis that allow us to involve seismic phenomena that cause strong requirements for structures that are designed by society; one of them is a probabilistic analysis which works from prediction equations that have been created based on metadata seismic compiled in different regions. These equations form models that are used to describe the 5% damped pseudo spectra response for the various zones considering some easily known input parameters. The biggest problem for the creation of these models requires data with great robust statistics that support the results, and there are several places where this type of information is not available, for which the use of alternative methodologies helps to achieve adjustments to different models of seismic prediction.

Keywords: GMPM, 5% damped pseudo-response spectra, models of seismic prediction, PSHA

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Authors: Sunghyoun Lee, Byeongkee Yu, Chanjung Lee, Yeongtaek Lim

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Oyster mushrooms are one of the ingredients that Koreans prefer. The oyster mushroom cultivation house has multiple layers in order to increase the mushroom production per unit area. However, the growing shelves in the house act as obstacles and hinder the circulation of the interior air, which leads to the difference of cultivation environment between the upper part and lower part of the growing shelves. Due to this difference of environments, growth distinction occurs according to the area of the growing shelves. It is known that minute air circulation around the mushroom cap facilitates the metabolism of mushrooms and improves its quality. This study has utilized the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program, that is, FLUENT R16, in order to analyze the improvement of the internal environment uniformity of the oyster mushroom cultivation house. The analyzed factors are velocity distribution, temperature distribution, and humidity distribution. In order to maintain the internal environment uniformity of the oyster mushroom cultivation house, it appeared that installing circulation fan at the upper part of the working passage towards the ceiling is effective. When all the environmental control equipment – unit cooler, inlet fan, outlet fan, air circulation fan, and humidifier - operated simultaneously, the RMS figure on the growing shelves appeared as follows: velocity 28.23%, temperature 30.47%, humidity 7.88%. However, when only unit cooler and air circulation fan operated, the RMS figure on the growing shelves appeared as follows: velocity 22.28%, temperature 0.87%, humidity 0.82%. Therefore, in order to maintain the internal environment uniformity of the mushroom cultivation house, reducing the overall operating time of inlet fan, outlet fan, and humidifier is needed, and managing the internal environment with unit cooler and air circulation fan appropriately is essential.

Keywords: air circulation fan, computational fluid dynamics, multi-layered shelves cultivation, oyster mushroom cultivation house

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Authors: M. A. Deyab, A. Al-Sabagh, S. Keera

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The effects of flow velocity, sand concentration, sand size and temperature on erosion-corrosion of petroleum pipelines (carbon steel) in the oil sands slurry were studied by electrochemical polarization measurements. It was found that the anodic excursion spans of carbon steel in the oil sands slurry are characterized by the occurrence of a well-defined anodic peak, followed by a passive region. The data reveal that increasing flow velocity, sand concentration and temperature enhances the anodic peak current density (jAP) and shifts pitting potential (Epit) towards more negative values. The variation of sand particle size does not have apparent effect on polarization behavior of carbon steel. The ratios of the erosion rate to corrosion rate (E/C) were calculated and discussed. The ratio of erosion to corrosion rates E/C increased with increasing the flow velocity, sand concentration, sand size, and temperature indicating that an increasing slurry flow velocity, sand concentration, sand size and temperature resulted in an enhancement of the erosion effect.

Keywords: erosion-corrosion, oil sands slurry, polarization, steel

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Filipa Cortez, Vanessa Pereira

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Introduction: The main challenge of obesity treatment is long-term weight loss maintenance. The 3 phases method is a weight loss program that combines a low carb and moderately high-protein diet, food supplements and a weekly one-to-one consultation with a certified nutritionist. Sustained weight control is the ultimate goal of phase 3. Success criterion was the minimum loss of 10% of initial weight and its maintenance after 12 months. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with successful weight loss maintenance after 12 months at the end of 3 phases method. Methods: The study included 199 subjects that achieved their weight loss goal (phase 3). Weight and body mass index (BMI) were obtained at the baseline and every week until the end of the program. Therapeutic adherence was measured weekly on a Likert scale from 1 to 5. Subjects were considered in compliance with nutritional recommendation and supplementation when their classification was ≥ 4. After 12 months of the method, the current weight and number of previous weight-loss attempts were collected by telephone interview. The statistical significance was assumed at p-values < 0.05. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS TM software v.21. Results: 65.3% of subjects met the success criterion. The factors which displayed a significant weight loss maintenance prediction were: greater initial percentage weight loss (OR=1.44) during the weight loss intervention and a higher number of consultations in phase 3 (OR=1.10). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the percentage weight loss during the weight loss intervention and the number of consultations in phase 3 may facilitate maintenance of weight loss after the 3 phases method.

Keywords: obesity, weight maintenance, low-carbohydrate diet, dietary supplements

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Authors: Shutchapol Chopvitayakun

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Internship program is a compulsory course of many undergraduate programs in Thailand. It gives opportunities to a lot of senior students as interns to practice their working skills in the real organizations and also gives chances for interns to face real-world working problems. Interns also learn how to solve those problems by direct and indirect experiences. This program in many schools is a well-structured course with a contract or agreement made with real business organizations. Moreover, this program also offers opportunities for interns to get jobs after completing it from where the internship program takes place. Interns also learn how to work as a team and how to associate with other colleagues, trainers, and superiors of each organization in term of social hierarchy, self-responsibility, and self-disciplinary. This research focuses on senior students of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, Thailand whose studying major is information technology program. They practiced their working skills or took internship programs in the real business sector or real operating organizations in 2015-2016. Interns are categorized in to two types: normal program and special program. For special program, students study in weekday evening from Monday to Friday or Weekend and most of them work full-time or part-time job. For normal program, students study in weekday working hours and most of them do not work. The differences of these characters and the outcomes of internship performance were studied and analyzed in this research. This work applied some statistical analytics to find out whether the internship performance of each intern type has different performances statistically or not.

Keywords: internship, intern, senior student, information technology program

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Authors: Yea-Mei Leou, Shiu-Hsung Huang, T. C. Shen, Chin-Ya Fang

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The purposes of this study were to explore how to establish a professional learning community for English teachers at a junior high school, and to explore how teachers and students think about the guided reading program. The participants were three experienced English teachers and their ESL seventh-grade students from three classes in a junior high school. Leveled picture books and worksheets were used in the program. Questionnaires and interviews were used for gathering information. The findings were as follows: First, most students enjoyed this guided reading program. Second, the teachers thought the guided reading program was helpful to students’ learning and the discussions in the professional learning community refreshed their ideas, but the preparation for the teaching was time-consuming. Suggestions based on the findings were provided.

Keywords: ESL students, guided reading, leveled books, professional learning community

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Authors: Shiva Kumar, G. S. Vijay, Srinivas Pai P., Shrinivasa Rao B. R.

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In the present study RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tech and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: radial basis function networks, emissions, performance parameters, fuzzy c means

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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Human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents, especially in nuclear power plants. For accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Out of lots factors, stress has been reported to have a significant influence on human performance. Therefore, this research aimed to develop a work-related stress management program which can guarantee Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) of the workers in nuclear power plants, especially those working in main control rooms. Major stress factors were elicited through literal surveys and classified into major categories such as demands, supports, and relationships. To manage those factors, a test and intervention program based on 4-level approaches was developed over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, and job rotation. In addition, a managerial care program was introduced with the concept of Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP) program. Reviews on the program conducted by ex-operators in nuclear power plants showed responses in the affirmative, and suggested additional treatment to guarantee high performance of human workers, not in normal operations but also in emergency situations.

Keywords: human error, work performance, work stress, Fitness-For-Duty (FFD), Employee Assistance Program (EAP)

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Authors: Hesham A. Elkaranshawy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Hosam M. Ezzat

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The system of ordinary nonlinear differential equations describing sliding velocity during impact with friction for a three-dimensional rigid-multibody system is developed. No analytical solutions have been obtained before for this highly nonlinear system. Hence, a power series solution is proposed. Since the validity of this solution is limited to its convergence zone, a suitable time step is chosen and at the end of it a new series solution is constructed. For a case study, the trajectory of the sliding velocity using the proposed method is built using 6 time steps, which coincides with a Runge-Kutta solution using 38 time steps.

Keywords: impact with friction, nonlinear ordinary differential equations, power series solutions, rough collision

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Authors: Vinod K. Singh, S. G. Chung

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The degree of structuration of Busan clays at the mouth of Nakdong River mouth was highly influenced by the depositional environment, i.e., flow of the river stream, marine regression, and transgression during the sedimentation process. As a result, the geotechnical properties also varies along the depth with change in degree of structuration. Thus, the in-situ tests such as cone penetration test (CPT) could not be used to predict various geotechnical properties properly by using the conventional empirical methods. In this paper, the shear wave velocity (Vs) was measured from the field using the seismic dilatometer. The Vs was also measured in the laboratory from high quality undisturbed and remolded samples using bender element method to evaluate the degree of structuration. The degree of structuration was quantitatively defined by the modulus ratio of undisturbed to remolded soil samples which is found well correlated with the normalized void ratio (e0/eL) where eL is the void ratio at the liquid limit. It is revealed that the empirical method based on laboratory results incorporating e0/eL can predict Vs from the field more accurately. Thereafter, the CPT based empirical method was developed to estimate the shear wave velocity taking the effect of structuration in the consideration. The developed method was found to predict shear wave velocity reasonably for Busan clays.

Keywords: level of structuration, normalized modulus, normalized void ratio, shear wave velocity, site characterization

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Authors: Hosein Faramarzpour

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This work presents the optimum operational conditions for a hydrogen-based micro-scale power source, using a verified mathematical model including fluid dynamics and reaction kinetics. Thereafter the stable operational flame regime is pursued as a key factor in optimizing the design of micro-combustors. The results show that with increasing velocities, four H2 flame regimes develop in the micro-combustor, namely: 1) periodic ignition-extinction regime, 2) steady symmetric regime, 3) pulsating asymmetric regime, and 4) steady asymmetric regime. The first regime that appears in 0.8 m/s inlet velocity is a periodic ignition-extinction regime which is characterized by counter flows and tulip-shape flames. For flow velocity above 0.2 m/s, the flame shifts downstream, and the combustion regime switches to a steady symmetric flame where temperature increases considerably due to the increased rate of incoming energy. Further elevation in flow velocity up to 1 m/s leads to the pulsating asymmetric flame formation, which is associated with pulses in various flame properties such as temperature and species concentration. Further elevation in flow velocity up to 1 m/s leads to the pulsating asymmetric flame formation, which is associated with pulses in various flame properties such as temperature and species concentration. Ultimately, when the inlet velocity reached 1.2 m/s, the last regime was observed, and a steady asymmetric regime appeared.

Keywords: thermophotovoltaic generator, micro combustor, micro power generator, combustion regimes, flame dynamic

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Authors: Keunock Lew, Seungryul Ma

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The paper analyzes risk and expected return of lenders who provide mortgage loans to households in the shared mortgage program of Korea. In 2013, the Korean government introduced the mortgage program to help low income householders to convert their renting into purchasing houses. The financial source for the mortgage program is the Urban Housing Fund set up by the Korean government. Through the program, low income households can borrow money from lenders to buy a house at a very low interest rate (e.g. 1 % per year) for a long time. The motivation of adopting this mortgage program by the Korean government is that the cost of renting houses has been rapidly increased especially in large urban areas during the past decade, which became financial difficulties to low income households who do not have their own houses. As the analysis methodology, the paper uses a spread sheet model for projecting cash flows of the mortgage product over the period of loan contract. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the risk and expected yield of the lenders with assumption that the future housing price and market rate of interest follow a stochastic process. The study results will give valuable implications to the Korean government and lenders who want to stabilize the mortgage program and innovate the related loan products.

Keywords: expected return, Monte Carlo simulation, risk, shared mortgage program

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Authors: Kirti Singh, Kesheo Prasad

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A 3D Acoustic Doppler velocimeter was used in the current investigation to quantify the mean and turbulence characteristics in non-uniform open-channel flows. Results are obtained from studies done in the laboratory, analysing the behavior of sand particles under turbulent open channel flow conditions flowing through rough, porous beds. Data obtained from ADV is used to calculate turbulent flow characteristics, Reynolds stresses and turbulent kinetic energy. Theoretical formulations for the distribution of Reynolds stress and the vertical velocity have been constructed using the Reynolds equation and the continuity equation of 2D open-channel flow. The measured Reynolds stress profile and the vertical velocity are comparable with the derived expressions. This study uses the Navier-Stokes equations for analysing the behavior of the vertical velocity profile in the dominant region of full-fledged turbulent flows in open channels, and it gives a new origination of the profile. For both wide and narrow open channels, this origination can estimate the time-averaged primary velocity in the turbulent boundary layer's outer region.

Keywords: turbulence, bed roughness, logarithmic law, shear stress correlations, ADV, Reynolds shear stress

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Authors: Md. Selim Reza, Mohammad Zohir Uddin

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Geophysical logging technique was conducted in a borehole in the north-western part of Bangladesh. The main objectives of this study were to identify the subsurface lithology and the presence of magnetic minerals within the basement complex. In this survey, full waveform sonic, magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma logs were conducted up to the depth of 660 m. From sonic log, three distinct velocity zones were observed at depths ranging from 20 m to 81 m, 81m to 360 m and 420 m to 660 m having the average velocity of 1600 m/s indicating unconsolidated sediment, 2500 m/s indicating hard, compact and matured sediments and 6300 m/s indicating basement complex respectively. Some low-velocity zones within the basement were identified as fractures/fissures. Natural gamma log was carried out only in the basement complex. According to magnetic susceptibility log, broadly three important zones were identified which had good agreement with the natural gamma, sonic as well as geological logs. The zone at the depth from 460 m to 470 m had the average susceptibility value of 3445 cgs unit. The average natural gamma value and sonic velocity in this zone are 150 cps and 3000 m/s respectively. The zone at the depth from 571 m to 598 m had the average susceptibility value of 5158 cgs unit with the average natural gamma value and sonic velocity are 160 cps and 6000 m/s respectively. On the other hand, the zone at the depth from 598 m to 620 m had the average susceptibility value of 1998 cgs unit with the average natural gamma value and sonic velocity show 200 cps and 3000 m/s respectively. From the interpretation of geophysical logs the 1st and 3rd zones within the basement complex are considered to be less significant whereas the 2nd zone is described as the most significant for magnetic minerals. Therefore, more drill holes are recommended on the anomalous body to delineate the extent, thickness and reserve of the magnetic body and further research are needed to determine the quality of mineral resources.

Keywords: basement complex, fractures/fissures, geophysical logging, lithology, magnetic susceptibility

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: prediction model, sensitivity analysis, simulation method, USMLE

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Samir Chawdhury, Guido Morgenthal

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The paper presents a novel extension of Vortex Particle Methods (VPM) where the study aims to reproduce a template simulation of complex flow field that is generated from impulsively started flow past an upstream bluff body at certain Reynolds number Re-Vibration of a structural system under upstream wake flow is often considered its governing design criteria. Therefore, the attention is given in this study especially for the reproduction of wake flow simulation. The basic methodology for the implementation of the flow reproduction requires the downstream velocity sampling from the template flow simulation; therefore, at particular distances from the upstream section the instantaneous velocity components are sampled using a series of square sampling-cells arranged vertically where each of the cell contains four velocity sampling points at its corner. Since the grid free Lagrangian VPM algorithm discretises vorticity on particle elements, the method requires transformation of the velocity components into vortex circulation, and finally the simulation of the reproduction of the template flow field by seeding these vortex circulations or particles into a free stream flow. It is noteworthy that the vortex particles have to be released into the free stream exactly at same rate of velocity sampling. Studies have been done, specifically, in terms of different sampling rates and velocity sampling positions to find their effects on flow reproduction quality. The quality assessments are mainly done, using a downstream flow monitoring profile, by comparing the characteristic wind flow profiles using several statistical turbulence measures. Additionally, the comparisons are performed using velocity time histories, snapshots of the flow fields, and the vibration of a downstream bluff section by performing wake buffeting analyses of the section under the original and reproduced wake flows. Convergence study is performed for the validation of the method. The study also describes the possibilities how to achieve flow reproductions with less computational effort.

Keywords: vortex particle method, wake flow, flow reproduction, wake buffeting analysis

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Authors: Manisha Bal, B. C. Meikap

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Hydrogen chloride is the most common acid gas emitted by the industries. HCl gas is listed as Title III hazardous air pollutant. It causes severe threat to the human health as well as environment. So, removal of HCl from flue gases is very imperative. In the present study, submerged self-priming venturi scrubber is chosen to remove the HCl gas with water as a scrubbing liquid. Venturi scrubber is the most popular device for the removal of gaseous pollutants. Main mechanism behind the venturi scrubber is the polluted gas stream enters at converging section which accelerated to maximum velocity at throat section. A very interesting thing in case of submerged condition, venturi scrubber is submerged inside the liquid tank and liquid is entered at throat section because of suction created due to large pressure drop generated at the throat section. Maximized throat gas velocity atomizes the entered liquid into number of tiny droplets. Gaseous pollutant HCl is absorbed from gas to liquid droplets inside the venturi scrubber due to interaction between the gas and water. Experiments were conducted at different throat gas velocity, water level and inlet concentration of HCl to enhance the HCl removal efficiency. The effect of throat gas velocity, inlet concentration of HCl, and water level on removal efficiency of venturi scrubber has been evaluated. Present system yielded very high removal efficiency for the scrubbing of HCl gas which is more than 90%. It is also concluded that the removal efficiency of HCl increases with increasing throat gas velocity, inlet HCl concentration, and water level height.

Keywords: air pollution, HCl scrubbing, mass transfer, self-priming venturi scrubber

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Authors: Koko Wangjam, Naresh Kumar Sharma

Abstract:

The concern for most public health policies and decision- makers is the equitable distribution of health care resource of the nation. Also, in public health care system, the primary aim is assuaging the burden of the disease. Objective: This paper captures and evaluates some important theories in equity in health with its relevance with the ART program in India. Methodology: The paper is exploratory and descriptive study based on secondary data. The sources of secondary data are published official reports from NACO (National AIDS Control Organisation), United Nations AIDS Program (UNAIDS), World Health Organisation (WHO) etc. Observation: The roll-out of the ART program in 2004 by the Govt. of India made a paradigm shift in HIV/AIDS scenario in the country. Conclusion: There are many theoretical injunctions in most of the principles and approaches in existing theories of health equity. The enervation of HIV infection by taking ART drugs had helped in curbing the prevalence and the fact that it is provided at free of cost has proven this program to be an epitome in distributive justice in public health.

Keywords: art program, burden of the disease, health equity, hiv/aids

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Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

Abstract:

Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir, seismic attributes

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