Search results for: stochastic co-volatility movements

Authors: Ardalan Sabamehr, Ashutosh Bagchi

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Recently, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) based on the vibration of structures has attracted the attention of researchers in different fields such as: civil, aeronautical and mechanical engineering. Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) have been developed to identify modal properties of infrastructure such as bridge, building and so on. Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD), Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) are the three most common methods in output only modal identification. FDD, SSI, and CWT operate based on the frequency domain, time domain, and time-frequency plane respectively. So, FDD and SSI are not able to display time and frequency at the same time. By the way, FDD and SSI have some difficulties in a noisy environment and finding the closed modes. CWT technique which is currently developed works on time-frequency plane and a reasonable performance in such condition. The other advantage of wavelet transform rather than other current techniques is that it can be applied for the non-stationary signal as well. The aim of this paper is to compare three most common modal identification techniques to find modal properties (such as natural frequency, mode shape, and damping ratio) of three story steel frame which was built in Concordia University Lab by use of ambient vibration. The frame has made of Galvanized steel with 60 cm length, 27 cm width and 133 cm height with no brace along the long span and short space. Three uniaxial wired accelerations (MicroStarin with 100mv/g accuracy) have been attached to the middle of each floor and gateway receives the data and send to the PC by use of Node Commander Software. The real-time monitoring has been performed for 20 seconds with 512 Hz sampling rate. The test is repeated for 5 times in each direction by hand shaking and impact hammer. CWT is able to detect instantaneous frequency by used of ridge detection method. In this paper, partial derivative ridge detection technique has been applied to the local maxima of time-frequency plane to detect the instantaneous frequency. The extracted result from all three methods have been compared, and it demonstrated that CWT has the better performance in term of its accuracy in noisy environment. The modal parameters such as natural frequency, damping ratio and mode shapes are identified from all three methods.

Keywords: ambient vibration, frequency domain decomposition, stochastic subspace identification, continuous wavelet transform

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Authors: Marvin R. Tenecio

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The analysis of "religious resistance" has been prevalent in Asian and Philippine studies. Discussions on religious resistance from a variety of perspectives are deemed as crucial turning points in the concept's ongoing development and expansion. By broadening the backdrop of religious protest between the early 1960s and the late 1980s, the researchers contend that a study examining the role carried by the Catholic Church in the upheavals against dictatorships in South Korea and the Philippines would be beneficial to the body of knowledge. This study examines a variety of historical writings about the activities occurring at that time. The researchers also compare and contrast the Catholic Church's contributions to the Korean and Philippine resistance against Park Chung-Hee and Ferdinand Marcos Sr., respectively, during the early 1960s until the late 1980s, using the lens of history from below, particularly the Pasyon and Revolution. The Catholic Church stood out against human rights abuses, promoted social justice, and mobilized the public for political reform in response to the dictatorships in South Korea and the Philippines. Even though the specific circumstances and personalities may have changed, the Church's position in both countries was vital in opposing authoritarian governments and supporting democratic movements.

Keywords: resistance, movements, catholic, church, dictatorship

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Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

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As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

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Authors: Pouya Taraghi, Yong Li, Nader Yoosef-Ghodsi, Muntaseer Kainat, Samer Adeeb

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Buried pipelines play a crucial role in the transportation of energy products such as oil, gas, and various chemical fluids, ensuring their efficient and safe distribution. However, these pipelines are often susceptible to ground movements caused by geohazards like landslides, fault movements, lateral spreading, and more. Such ground movements can lead to strain-induced failures in pipes, resulting in leaks or explosions, leading to fires, financial losses, environmental contamination, and even loss of human life. Therefore, it is essential to study how buried pipelines respond when traversing geohazard-prone areas to assess the potential impact of ground movement on pipeline design. As such, this study introduces an approach called the Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) to predict the strain demand in inelastic pipes subjected to permanent ground displacement (PGD). This method uses a deep learning framework that does not require training data and makes it feasible to consider more realistic assumptions regarding existing nonlinearities. It leverages the underlying physics described by differential equations to approximate the solution. The study analyzes various scenarios involving different geohazard types, PGD values, and crossing angles, comparing the predictions with results obtained from finite element methods. The findings demonstrate a good agreement between the results of the proposed method and the finite element method, highlighting its potential as a simulation-free, data-free, and meshless alternative. This study paves the way for further advancements, such as the simulation-free reliability assessment of pipes subjected to PGD, as part of ongoing research that leverages the proposed method.

Keywords: strain demand, inelastic pipe, permanent ground displacement, machine learning, physics-informed neural network

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Authors: Jin-Qu Chen, Jie Liu, Yong Yin, Zi-Qi Ju, Yu-Yao Wu

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Increase in travel fare and station’s failure will have huge impact on passengers’ travel. The Urban Rail Transit (URT) station’s accessibility reliability under increasing travel fare and station failure are analyzed in this paper. Firstly, the passenger’s travel path is resumed based on stochastic user equilibrium and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. Secondly, calculating station’s importance by combining LeaderRank algorithm and Ratio of Station Affected Passenger Volume (RSAPV), and then the station’s accessibility evaluation indicators are proposed based on the analysis of passenger’s travel characteristic. Thirdly, station’s accessibility under different scenarios are measured and rate of accessibility change is proposed as station’s accessibility reliability indicator. Finally, the accessibility of Hangzhou metro stations is analyzed by the formulated models. The result shows that Jinjiang station and Liangzhu station are the most important and convenient station in the Hangzhou metro, respectively. Station failure and increase in travel fare and station failure have huge impact on station’s accessibility, except for increase in travel fare. Stations in Hangzhou metro Line 1 have relatively worse accessibility reliability and Fengqi Road station’s accessibility reliability is weakest. For Hangzhou metro operational department, constructing new metro line around Line 1 and protecting Line 1’s station preferentially can effective improve the accessibility reliability of Hangzhou metro.

Keywords: automatic fare collection data, AFC, station’s accessibility reliability, stochastic user equilibrium, urban rail transit, URT

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Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

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Authors: Amer Ait Sidhoum

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Interest in sustainability has gained ground among practitioners, academics and policy-makers due to growing stakeholders’ awareness of environmental and social concerns. This is particularly true for agriculture. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the quantification of social sustainability and the contribution of social issues to the agricultural production efficiency. This research's main objective is to propose a method for evaluating prices of social outputs, more precisely shadow prices, by allowing for the stochastic nature of agricultural production that is to say for production uncertainty. In this article, the assessment of social outputs’ shadow prices is conducted within the methodological framework of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). An output-oriented directional distance function (DDF) is implemented to represent the technology of a sample of Catalan arable crop farms and derive the efficiency scores the overall production technology of our sample is assumed to be the intersection of two different sub-technologies. The first sub-technology models the production of random desirable agricultural outputs, while the second sub-technology reflects the social outcomes from agricultural activities. Once a nonparametric production technology has been represented, the DDF primal approach can be used for efficiency measurement, while shadow prices are drawn from the dual representation of the DDF. Computing shadow prices is a method to assign an economic value to non-marketed social outcomes. Our research uses cross sectional, farm-level data collected in 2015 from a sample of 180 Catalan arable crop farms specialized in the production of cereals, oilseeds and protein (COP) crops. Our results suggest that our sample farms show high performance scores, from 85% for the bad state of nature to 88% for the normal and ideal crop growing conditions. This suggests that farm performance is increasing with an improvement in crop growth conditions. Results also show that average shadow prices of desirable state-contingent output and social outcomes for efficient and inefficient farms are positive, suggesting that the production of desirable marketable outputs and of non-marketable outputs makes a positive contribution to the farm production efficiency. Results also indicate that social outputs’ shadow prices are contingent upon the growing conditions. The shadow prices follow an upward trend as crop-growing conditions improve. This finding suggests that these efficient farms prefer to allocate more resources in the production of desirable outputs than of social outcomes. To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to compute shadow prices of social outcomes while accounting for the stochastic nature of the production technology. Our findings suggest that the decision-making process of the efficient farms in dealing with social issues are stochastic and strongly dependent on the growth conditions. This implies that policy-makers should adjust their instruments according to the stochastic environmental conditions. An optimal redistribution of rural development support, by increasing the public payment with the improvement in crop growth conditions, would likely enhance the effectiveness of public policies.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, shadow prices, social sustainability, sustainable farming

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Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

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Authors: Daxa Mishra, R. Harihara, Ankita

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Trapezius muscle pain is the most common musculoskeletal disorder occurring in individuals who work with awkward positions, have repetitive movements and movements with precision demands. Treatment techniques like active release technique (ART) and myofascial release (MFR) can be used to relieve muscle spasm. The aim of the study is to compare the effect of ART and MFR on the upper trapezius muscle spasm. Methodology: A series of 60 patients of both sexes between the age group of 20 and 55 with upper trapezius spasm were divided into two groups by computerized randomization. Subjects in each group received treatment in the form of either ART or MFR for the period of seven days. cervical range of motion (ROM), neck disability index scale (NDI) and visual analog scale (VAS) tools were used to measure the outcome. Results: Paired Sample ‘t’ test was used to compare the Outcome differences within each group, while Independent ‘t’ test was used to compare the differences between the two groups for the same outcome measures. The improvement was found in both the groups at 7th day following intervention, but the group which received ART showed significant improvements as compared to group which received MFR. Conclusion: Although both techniques are effective in alleviation of symptoms and associated disability in upper trapezius muscle spasm, ART gave better results as compared to MRF.

Keywords: goniometer, myofascial release, active release, physiotherapy

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Authors: Fung Chiat Loo, Fung Ying Loo

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This paper discusses, suggests, and constructs a notation system to facilitate the learning and understanding of the two aspects of music and movement in a sports routine. This model serves to provide a simple and logical notation that does not require training in both music and choreography. Notation is an important medium in many art forms, particularly in music and dance, transmitting information that cannot easily be expressed using words or language. Another field that is closely associated with dance and music is sports routine, which equally requires choreography and music. However, from the perspective of music, it is common to observe many incongruencies appearing between the music used and the choreography that impede an optimal perception of the performance. The concept of the notation proceeds with a discussion and review of existing dance notations that could contribute to sports routines, along with rules and a code of points in selected sports routines. The author's involvement as an insider of numerous musical theatre productions also contributed to this study. The notation constructed includes time (tempo), significances of musical accents, direction, and phrasing, along with significances of movements (jump, punch, shape). It is believed that the level of congruence between music and movement will provide optimal visualization, and in that, the notation serves to provide adequate information on both entities for the understanding of athletes and coaches.

Keywords: notation, choreography, music learning, sports routines, congruence

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Authors: Riadh Zorgati, Thomas Triboulet

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In quite diverse application areas such as astronomy, medical imaging, geophysics or nondestructive evaluation, many problems related to calibration, fitting or estimation of a large number of input parameters of a model from a small amount of output noisy data, can be cast as inverse problems. Due to noisy data corruption, insufficient data and model errors, most inverse problems are ill-posed in a Hadamard sense, i.e. existence, uniqueness and stability of the solution are not guaranteed. A wide class of inverse problems in physics relates to the Fredholm equation of the first kind. The ill-posedness of such inverse problem results, after discretization, in a very ill-conditioned linear system of equations, the condition number of the associated matrix can typically range from 109 to 1018. This condition number plays the role of an amplifier of uncertainties on data during inversion and then, renders the inverse problem difficult to handle numerically. Similar problems appear in other areas such as numerical optimization when using interior points algorithms for solving linear programs leads to face ill-conditioned systems of linear equations. Devising efficient solution approaches for such system of equations is therefore of great practical interest. Efficient iterative algorithms are proposed for solving a system of linear equations. The approach is based on a preconditioning of the initial matrix of the system with an approximation of a generalized inverse leading to a stochastic preconditioned matrix. This approach, valid for non-negative matrices, is first extended to hermitian, semi-definite positive matrices and then generalized to any complex rectangular matrices. The main results obtained are as follows: 1) We are able to build a generalized inverse of any complex rectangular matrix which satisfies the convergence condition requested in iterative algorithms for solving a system of linear equations. This completes the (short) list of generalized inverse having this property, after Kaczmarz and Cimmino matrices. Theoretical results on both the characterization of the type of generalized inverse obtained and the convergence are derived. 2) Thanks to its properties, this matrix can be efficiently used in different solving schemes as Richardson-Tanabe or preconditioned conjugate gradients. 3) By using Lp norms, we propose generalized Kaczmarz’s type matrices. We also show how Cimmino's matrix can be considered as a particular case consisting in choosing the Euclidian norm in an asymmetrical structure. 4) Regarding numerical results obtained on some pathological well-known test-cases (Hilbert, Nakasaka, …), some of the proposed algorithms are empirically shown to be more efficient on ill-conditioned problems and more robust to error propagation than the known classical techniques we have tested (Gauss, Moore-Penrose inverse, minimum residue, conjugate gradients, Kaczmarz, Cimmino). We end on a very early prospective application of our approach based on stochastic matrices aiming at computing some parameters (such as the extreme values, the mean, the variance, …) of the solution of a linear system prior to its resolution. Such an approach, if it were to be efficient, would be a source of information on the solution of a system of linear equations.

Keywords: conditioning, generalized inverse, linear system, norms, stochastic matrix

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Authors: Timir Baran Roy, Luis Guerreiro, Ashutosh Bagchi

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Dynamic study is important in order to design, repair and rehabilitation of structures. It has played an important role in the behavior characterization of structures; such as bridges, dams, high-rise buildings etc. There had been a substantial development in this area over the last few decades, especially in the field of dynamic identification techniques of structural systems. Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and Time Domain Decomposition are most commonly used methods to identify modal parameters; such as natural frequency, modal damping, and mode shape. The focus of the present research is to study the dynamic characteristics of typical timber masonry walls commonly used in Portugal. For that purpose, a multi-storey structural prototypes of such walls have been tested on a seismic shake table at the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering, Portugal (LNEC). Signal processing has been performed of the output response, which is collected from the shaking table experiment of the prototype using accelerometers. In the present work signal processing of the output response, based on the input response has been done in two ways: FDD and Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI). In order to estimate the values of the modal parameters, algorithms for FDD are formulated, and parametric functions for the SSI are computed. Finally, estimated values from both the methods are compared to measure the accuracy of both the techniques.

Keywords: frequency domain decomposition (fdd), modal parameters, signal processing, stochastic subspace identification (ssi), time domain decomposition

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Authors: G. Shahzadi, A. Soulaimani

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This research work aims to identify the physical parameters of the constitutive soil model in the design of a rockfill dam by inverse analysis. The best parameters of the constitutive soil model, are those that minimize the objective function, defined as the difference between the measured and numerical results. The Finite Element code (Plaxis) has been utilized for numerical simulation. Polynomial and neural network-based response surfaces have been generated to analyze the relationship between soil parameters and displacements. The performance of surrogate models has been analyzed and compared by evaluating the root mean square error. A comparative study has been done based on objective functions and optimization techniques. Objective functions are categorized by considering measured data with and without uncertainty in instruments, defined by the least square method, which estimates the norm between the predicted displacements and the measured values. Hydro Quebec provided data sets for the measured values of the Romaine-2 dam. Stochastic optimization, an approach that can overcome local minima, and solve non-convex and non-differentiable problems with ease, is used to obtain an optimum value. Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Differential Evolution (DE) are compared for the minimization problem, although all these techniques take time to converge to an optimum value; however, PSO provided the better convergence and best soil parameters. Overall, parameter identification analysis could be effectively used for the rockfill dam application and has the potential to become a valuable tool for geotechnical engineers for assessing dam performance and dam safety.

Keywords: Rockfill dam, parameter identification, stochastic analysis, regression, PLAXIS

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Authors: Vilasinee Jintalikhitdee, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Saengchai

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This research aims to study the level of democratic political culture and the factors that affect the democratic political culture of 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics which are Independent Samples T-test (T-test) and One-Way ANOVA (F-test). The researcher also collected data by interviewing the target groups, and then analyzed the data by the use of descriptive analysis. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok have exposed to democratic political culture at high level in overall. When considering each part, it found out that the part that has highest mean is “the constitutional democratic governmental system is suitable for Thailand” statement. The part with the lowest mean is “corruption (cheat and defraud) is normal in Thai society” statement. The factor that affects democratic political culture is grade levels, occupations of mothers, and attention in news and political movements.

Keywords: democratic, political culture, political movements, democratic governmental system

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Authors: C. Fernanda da S. Sampaio, M. Gabriela Sadith Perez Paredes, V. Antonio de O. Martins

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Today the transport sector is undergoing a revolution, with the rise of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), industry and society itself will undergo a major transformation. However, the technological development of these applications is a challenge that requires new techniques and great machine learning and artificial intelligence. The study proposes to develop a vehicular perception system called Veibra, which consists of two front cameras for day/night viewing and an embedded device capable of working with Yolov2 image processing algorithms with low computational cost. The strategic version for the market is to assist the driver on the road with the detection of day/night objects, such as road signs, pedestrians, and animals that will be viewed through the screen of the phone or tablet through an application. The system has the ability to perform real-time driver detection and recognition to identify muscle movements and pupils to determine if the driver is tired or inattentive, analyzing the student's characteristic change and following the subtle movements of the whole face and issuing alerts through beta waves to ensure the concentration and attention of the driver. The system will also be able to perform tracking and monitoring through GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) technology and the cameras installed in the vehicle.

Keywords: advanced driver assistance systems, tracking, traffic signal detection, vehicle perception system

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Authors: Juan Sanmartín Bastida

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When a country experiences a period of transition from authoritarianism to democracy, involving an earlier process of political liberalization and a later process of democratization, a cycle of protest usually outbreaks, as there is a reciprocal influence between that kind of political change and the frequency and scale of social protest events. That is what happened in Spain during the first years of its transition to democracy from the Francoist authoritarian regime, roughly between November 1975 and December 1978. Thus, the object of this study is to show and explain how that cycle of protest started, developed, and finished in relation to such a political change, and offer specific information about the main features of all protest cycles: the social movements that arose during that period, the number of protest events by month, the forms of collective action that were utilized, the groups of challengers that engaged in contentious politics, the reaction of the authorities to the action and claims of those groups, etc. The study of this cycle of protest, using the primary sources and analytical tools that characterize the model of research of protest cycles, will make a contribution to the field of contentious politics and its phenomenon of cycles of contention, and more broadly to the political and social history of contemporary Spain. The cycle of protest and the process of political liberalization of the authoritarian regime began around the same time, but the first concluded long before the process of democratization was completed in 1982. The ascending phase of the cycle and therefore the process of liberalization started with the death of Francisco Franco and the proclamation of Juan Carlos I as King of Spain in November 1975; the peak of the cycle was around the first months of 1977; the descending phase started after the first general election of June 1977; and the level of protest stabilized in the last months of 1978, a year that finished with a referendum in which the Spanish people approved the current democratic constitution. It was then when we can consider that the cycle of protest came to an end. The primary sources are the news of protest events and social movements in the three main Spanish newspapers at the time, other written or audiovisual documents, and in-depth interviews; and the analytical tools are the political opportunities that encourage social protest, the available repertoire of contention, the organizations and networks that brought together people with the same claims and allowed them to engage in contentious politics, and the interpretative frames that justify, dignify and motivates their collective action. These are the main four factors that explain the beginning, development and ending of the cycle of protest, and therefore the accompanying social movements and events of collective action. Among those four factors, the political opportunities -their opening, exploitation, and closure-proved to be most decisive.

Keywords: contentious politics, cycles of protest, political opportunities, social movements, Spanish transition to democracy

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Authors: Daniel R. Zeh, Michelle R. Heupel, Mark Hamann, Rhondda Jones, Colin J. Limpus, Helene Marsh

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Marine mammals live in an environment with water temperatures nearly always lower than the mammalian core body temperature of 35 - 38°C. Marine mammals can lose heat at high rates and have evolved a range of adaptations to minimise heat loss. Our project tracked dugongs to examine if there was a discoverable relationship between the animals’ movements and the temperature of their environment that might suggest behavioural thermoregulation. Twenty-nine dugongs were fitted with acoustic and satellite/GPS transmitters in 2012, 2013 and 2014 in Moreton Bay Queensland at the high latitude limit of the species’ winter range in eastern Australia on 30 occasions (one animal was tagged twice). All 22 animals that stayed in the area and had functional transmitters made at least one (and up to 66) return trip(s) to the warmer oceanic waters outside the bay where seagrass is unavailable. Individual dugongs went in and out of the bay in synchrony with the tides and typically spent about 6 hours in the oceanic water. There was a diel pattern in the movements: 85% of outgoing trips occurred between midnight and noon. There were significant individual differences, but the likelihood of a dugong leaving the bay was independent of body length or sex. In Quarter 2 (April – June), the odds of a dugong making a trip increased by about 40% for each 1°C increase in the temperature difference between the bay and the warmer adjacent oceanic waters. In Quarter 3, the odds of making a trip were lower when the outside –inside bay temperature differences were small or negative but increased by a factor of up to 2.12 for each 1°C difference in outside – inside temperatures. In Quarter 4, the odds of making a trip were higher when it was cooler outside the bay and decreased by a factor of nearly 0.5 for each 1°C difference in outside – inside bay temperatures. The activity spaces of the dugongs generally declined as winter progressed suggesting a change in the cost-effectiveness of moving outside the bay. Our analysis suggests that dugongs can thermoregulate their core temperature through the behaviour of moving to water having more favourable temperature.

Keywords: acoustic, behavioral thermoregulation, dugongs, movements, satellite, telemetry, quick fix GPS

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Authors: Omnia Abd Elghany Zaki Mohamed Mahmoud

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The ancient Egyptian used the stars to measure time or in a more precise sense as one of the astronomical means of measuring time. These methods differed throughout the historical ages. They began with simple observations of observing astronomical phenomena and watching them, such as observing the movements of the stars in the sky. The year, to know the days, nights, and other means used to help set the time when the sky overcast, and so the researcher tries through archaeological evidence to demonstrate the knowledge of the ancient Egyptian stars of heaven, and movements through the first pre-history. It is not believed that the astronomical information possessed by the Egyptian was limited, and simple, it was reaching a level of almost optimal in terms of importance, and the goal he wanted to reach the ancient Egyptian, and also help him to know the time, and the passage of time; which ended in finally trying to find a system of timing and calculation of time. It was noted that there were signs that the stellar creed was known, and prosperous, especially since the pre-family ages, and this is evident on the inscriptions that come back to that period. The Egyptian realized that some of the stars remain visible at night, The ancient Egyptian was familiar with the daily journey of the stars. This is what was adopted in many paragraphs of the texts of the pyramids, and its references to the rise of the deceased king of the heavenly world between the stars of the eternal sky. It was noted that the ancient Egyptian link between the doctrine of the star, it find that the public The lunar was known to the ancient Egyptian, and sang it for two years: and the stellar solar; but it was based on the appearance of the star Sirius, and this is the first means used to measure time, and know the calendar stars.

Keywords: archaeology, astronomical panels, ancient Egypt, Egyptian

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Authors: Maryam Esfandiari, Bohdan Fridrich

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On December 28, 2017, a wave of protests erupted in several Iranian cities. Protesters demonstrated against the president, Hasan Rohani, and theocratical nature of the regime. Iran has a recent history with protest movements, such as Green Movement responsible for demonstrations after 2009 Iranian presidential election. However, the 2017/2018 protests differ from the previous ones in terms of organization and agenda. The events show little to no central organization and seem as being sparked by grass root movements and by citizens’ fatigue of government corruption, authoritarianism, and economic problems of the country. Social media has played important role in communicating the protests to the outside world and also in general coordination. By using content analyses, this paper analyzes the visual content of Twitter posts published during the protests. It aims to find the correlation between their decentralized nature and nature of the tweets – either emotionally arousing or efficiency-elicit. Pictures are searched by hashtags and coded by their content, such as ‘crowds,’ ‘protest activities,’ ‘symbols of unity,’ ‘violence,’ ‘iconic figures,’ etc. The study determines what type of content prevails and what type is the most impactful in terms of reach. This study contributes to understanding the role of social media both as a tool and a space in protest organization and portrayal in countries with limited Internet access.

Keywords: twitter, Iran, collective action, protest

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Authors: Y. Wang, S. Zhang, X. Chen

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The longitudinal compressive strength of fibre reinforced plastic (FRP) possess a large stochastic variability, which limits efficient application of composite structures. This study aims to address how the random fibre packing affects the uncertainty of FRP compressive strength. An novel approach is proposed to generate random fibre packing status by a combination of Latin hypercube sampling and random sequential expansion. 3D nonlinear finite element model is built which incorporates both the matrix plasticity and fibre geometrical instability. The matrix is modeled by isotropic ideal elasto-plastic solid elements, and the fibres are modeled by linear-elastic rebar elements. Composite with a series of different nominal fibre volume fractions are studied. Premature fibre waviness at different magnitude and direction is introduced in the finite element model. Compressive tests on uni-directional CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic) are conducted following the ASTM D6641. By a comparison of 3D FE models and compressive tests, it is clearly shown that the stochastic variation of compressive strength is partly caused by the random fibre packing, and normal or lognormal distribution tends to be a good fit the probabilistic compressive strength. Furthermore, it is also observed that different random fibre packing could trigger two different fibre micro-buckling modes while subjected to longitudinal compression: out-of-plane buckling and twisted buckling. The out-of-plane buckling mode results much larger compressive strength, and this is the major reason why the random fibre packing results a large uncertainty in the FRP compressive strength. This study would contribute to new approaches to the quality control of FRP considering higher compressive strength or lower uncertainty.

Keywords: compressive strength, FRP, micro-buckling, random fibre packing

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Authors: Ian Walsh, Terry Nguyen-Khuong, Christopher H. Taron, Pauline M. Rudd

Abstract:

Glycoproteins and their covalently bonded glycans play critical roles in the immune system, cell communication, disease and disease prognosis. Ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) coupled with mass spectrometry is conventionally used to qualitatively and quantitatively characterise glycan structures in a given sample. Exoglycosidases are enzymes that catalyze sequential removal of monosaccharides from the non-reducing end of glycans. They naturally have specificity for a particular type of sugar, its stereochemistry (α or β anomer) and its position of attachment to an adjacent sugar on the glycan. Thus, monitoring the peak movements (both in the UPLC and MS1) after application of exoglycosidases provides a unique and effective way to annotate sugars with high detail - i.e. differentiating positional and linkage isomers. Manual annotation of an exoglycosidase experiment is difficult and time consuming. As such, with increasing sample complexity and the number of exoglycosidases, the analysis could result in manually interpreting hundreds of peak movements. Recently, we have implemented pattern recognition software for automated interpretation of UPLC-MS1 exoglycosidase digestions. In this work, we explain the software, indicate how much time it will save and provide example usage showing the annotation of positional and linkage isomers in Immunoglobulin G, apolipoprotein J, and simple glycan standards.

Keywords: bioinformatics, automated glycan assignment, liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry

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Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

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Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, kl divergence, quickest change detection, time series data

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Authors: Iacopo Carnacina, Mohammad Keshtpoor, Richard Yablonsky

Abstract:

Non-structural protection measures against flooding are becoming increasingly popular flood risk mitigation strategies. In particular, coastal flood insurance impacts not only private citizens but also insurance and reinsurance companies, who may require it to retain solvency and better understand the risks they face from a catastrophic coastal flood event. In this context, a framework is presented here to assess the risk for coastal flooding across the UK. The area has a long history of catastrophic flood events, including the Great Flood of 1953 and the 2013 Cyclone Xaver storm, both of which led to significant loss of life and property. The current framework will leverage a technology based on a hydrodynamic model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh). This flexible mesh technology, coupled with a calibration technique, allows for better utilisation of computational resources, leading to higher resolution and more detailed results. The generation of a stochastic set of extra tropical cyclone (ETC) events supports the evaluation of the financial losses for the whole area, also accounting for correlations between different locations in different scenarios. Finally, the solution shows a detailed analysis for the Thames River, leveraging the information available on flood barriers and levees. Two realistic disaster scenarios for the Greater London area are simulated: In the first scenario, the storm surge intensity is not high enough to fail London’s flood defences, but in the second scenario, London’s flood defences fail, highlighting the potential losses from a catastrophic coastal flood event.

Keywords: storm surge, stochastic model, levee failure, Thames River

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Authors: Tijjani Bashir Musa

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The recent global crisis which suddenly results to Nigerian stock market crash revealed some peculiarities of Nigerian firms. Some firms in Nigeria are performing but their stock prices are not increasing while some firms are at the brink of collapse but their stock prices are increasing. Thus, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and stock price in Nigeria. The study covered the period of 2005 to 2009. This period is the period of stock boom and also marked the period of stock market crash as a result of global financial meltdown. The study is a panel study. A total of 140 firms were sampled from 216 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Data were collected from secondary source. These data were divided into four strata comprising the most performing stock, the least performing stock, most performing firms and the least performing firms. Each stratum contains 35 firms with characteristic of most performing stock, most performing firms, least performing stock and least performing firms. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyse the data while statistical/econometrics package of Stata 11.0 version was used to run the data. The study found that, relationship exists between selected firm performance parameters (operating efficiency, firm profit, earning per share and working capital) and stock price. As such firm performance gave sufficient information or has predictive power on stock prices movements in Nigeria for all the years under study.. The study recommends among others that Managers of firms in Nigeria should formulate policies and exert effort geared towards improving firm performance that will enhance stock prices movements.

Keywords: firm, Nigeria, performance, stock price

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Authors: June Tay, Ivy Chia

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There are numerous changes, both mental and physical, taking place when people age. We need to understand the different aspects required for healthy living, including meeting nutritional needs, regular physical activities to keep agility, sufficient rest and sleep to have physical and mental well-being, social engagement to avoid the risk of social isolation and depression, and access to healthcare to detect and manage chronic conditions. Promoting physical activities for an ageing population is necessary as many may have enjoyed sedentary lifestyles for some time. In our study, we evaluate the considerations when designing a computer vision video game for the elderly. We need to design some low-impact activities, such as stretching and gentle movements, because some elderly individuals may have joint pains or mobility issues. The exercise game should consist of simple movements that are easy to follow and remember. It should be fun and enjoyable so that they can be motivated to do some exercise. Social engagement can keep the elderly motivated and competitive, and they are more willing to engage in game exercises. Elderly citizens can compare their game scores and try to improve them. We propose a computer vision-based video game for the elderly that will capture and track the movement of the elderly hand pushing a ball on the screen into a circle. It can be easily set up using a PC laptop with a webcam. Our video game adhered to the design framework we employed, and it encompassed ease of use, a simple graphical interface, easy-to-play game exercise, and fun gameplay.

Keywords: about computer vision, video games, gerontology technology, caregiving

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Authors: Jaime Otavo

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Oscar del Barco, a former member of Los Montoneros, an Argentine guerrilla group of the 1970s, published a letter in 2004 that sparked a heated debate in his country about revolutionary violence. Del Barco, on the subject of «No matarás» (Thou shalt not kill) –as this debate was known– wrote to Sergio Schmucler, his addressee, the following: "There is no 'ideal' that justifies the death of a man. The founding principle of any community is 'Thou shalt not kill'. Thou shalt not kill the man because every man is sacred, and every man is all men".In this paper, the «No matarás» debate will be used to problematize two interconnected ideas that, in Colombia, underpinned the use of revolutionary violence by the guerrilla movements that emerged in the 1970s. On the one hand, an anthropological optimism; on the other, a theological scheme of converting violence into justice. Based on this, two arguments are put forward: 1) that revolutionary violence arose from an ethical-political certainty, namely: the confidence in being on the right side of history (because the violent ones were others), but 2) that its persistence over time made visible a tragic element, that is, that the bipolarity between victim and executioner, good and evil, or friend and foe that is inscribed in the class struggle is a false dilemma for in the context of revolutionary violence –as in the context of Greek tragedy–, no one ever has to make a decision, nor can he do so. For this reason, it is maintained that the fundamental aspect about guerrilla violence in Colombia is that it imposed itself as a violence of negativity which not only exceeded the capacity of the extreme left to control its revolutionary praxis but also exploited the link with the political subjectivation to which it aspired, the proletariat as the gravedigger of the bourgeoisie.

Keywords: marxism, social movements, armed struggle, debate thou shalt not kill

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Authors: Andreas Aceranti, Simonetta Vernocchi, Marco Colorato, Daniel Zaccariello

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Our study explores the usefulness of implementing facial expression recognition capabilities and using the Facial Action Coding System (FACS) in contexts where the other person is wearing a mask. In the communication process, the subjects use a plurality of distinct and autonomous reporting systems. Among them, the system of mimicking facial movements is worthy of attention. Basic emotion theorists have identified the existence of specific and universal patterns of facial expressions related to seven basic emotions -anger, disgust, contempt, fear, sadness, surprise, and happiness- that would distinguish one emotion from another. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we have come up against the problem of having the lower half of the face covered and, therefore, not investigable due to the masks. Facial-emotional behavior is a good starting point for understanding: (1) the affective state (such as emotions), (2) cognitive activity (perplexity, concentration, boredom), (3) temperament and personality traits (hostility, sociability, shyness), (4) psychopathology (such as diagnostic information relevant to depression, mania, schizophrenia, and less severe disorders), (5) psychopathological processes that occur during social interactions patient and analyst. There are numerous methods to measure facial movements resulting from the action of muscles, see for example, the measurement of visible facial actions using coding systems (non-intrusive systems that require the presence of an observer who encodes and categorizes behaviors) and the measurement of electrical "discharges" of contracting muscles (facial electromyography; EMG). However, the measuring system invented by Ekman and Friesen (2002) - "Facial Action Coding System - FACS" is the most comprehensive, complete, and versatile. Our study, carried out on about 1,500 subjects over three years of work, allowed us to highlight how the movements of the hands and upper part of the face change depending on whether the subject wears a mask or not. We have been able to identify specific alterations to the subjects’ hand movement patterns and their upper face expressions while wearing masks compared to when not wearing them. We believe that finding correlations between how body language changes when our facial expressions are impaired can provide a better understanding of the link between the face and body non-verbal language.

Keywords: facial action coding system, COVID-19, masks, facial analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Chen-Chang Lee, Po-Chou Chen, Jo-Chi Jao, Chun-Chung Lui, Leung-Chit Tsang, Lain-Chyr Hwang

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Fetal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a challenge task because the fetal movements could cause motion artifact in MR images. The remedy to overcome this problem is to use fast scanning pulse sequences. The Single-Shot Fast Spin-Echo (SSFSE) T2-weighted imaging technique is routinely performed and often used as a gold standard in clinical examinations. Fast spoiled gradient-echo (FSPGR) T1-Weighted Imaging (T1WI) is often used to identify fat, calcification and hemorrhage. Fast Imaging Employing Steady-State Acquisition (FIESTA) is commonly used to identify fetal structures as well as the heart and vessels. The contrast of FIESTA image is related to T1/T2 and is different from that of SSFSE. The advantages and disadvantages of these two scanning sequences for fetal imaging have not been clearly demonstrated yet. This study aimed to compare these three rapid MRI techniques (SSFSE, FIESTA, and FSPGR) for fetal MRI examinations. The image qualities and influencing factors among these three techniques were explored. A 1.5T GE Discovery 450 clinical MR scanner with an eight-channel high-resolution abdominal coil was used in this study. Twenty-five pregnant women were recruited to enroll fetal MRI examination with SSFSE, FIESTA and FSPGR scanning. Multi-oriented and multi-slice images were acquired. Afterwards, MR images were interpreted and scored by two senior radiologists. The results showed that both SSFSE and T2W-FIESTA can provide good image quality among these three rapid imaging techniques. Vessel signals on FIESTA images are higher than those on SSFSE images. The Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) of FIESTA is lower than that of the others two techniques, but it is prone to cause banding artifacts. FSPGR-T1WI renders lower Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) because it severely suffers from the impact of maternal and fetal movements. The scan times for these three scanning sequences were 25 sec (T2W-SSFSE), 20 sec (FIESTA) and 18 sec (FSPGR). In conclusion, all these three rapid MR scanning sequences can produce high contrast and high spatial resolution images. The scan time can be shortened by incorporating parallel imaging techniques so that the motion artifacts caused by fetal movements can be reduced. Having good understanding of the characteristics of these three rapid MRI techniques is helpful for technologists to obtain reproducible fetal anatomy images with high quality for prenatal diagnosis.

Keywords: fetal MRI, FIESTA, FSPGR, motion artifact, SSFSE

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

Abstract:

This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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Authors: Agnieszka A. Malinowska, R. Hejmanowski

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A number of European cities are strongly affected by ground movements caused by anthropogenic activities or post-anthropogenic metamorphosis. Those are mainly water pumping, current mining operation, the collapse of post-mining underground voids or mining-induced earthquakes. These activities lead to large and small-scale ground displacements and a ground ruptures. The ground movements occurring in urban areas could considerably affect stability and safety of structures and infrastructures. The complexity of the ground deformation phenomenon in relation to the structures and infrastructures vulnerability leads to considerable constraints in assessing the threat of those objects. However, the increase of access to the free software and satellite data could pave the way for developing new methods and strategies for environmental risk mitigation and management. Open source geographical information systems (OS GIS), may support data integration, management, and risk analysis. Lately, developed methods based on fuzzy logic and experts methods for buildings and infrastructure damage risk assessment could be integrated into OS GIS. Those methods were verified base on back analysis proving their accuracy. Moreover, those methods could be supported by ground displacement observation. Based on freely available data from European Space Agency and free software, ground deformation could be estimated. The main innovation presented in the paper is the application of open source software (OS GIS) for integration developed models and assessment of the threat of urban areas. Those approaches will be reinforced by analysis of ground movement based on free satellite data. Those data would support the verification of ground movement prediction models. Moreover, satellite data will enable our mapping of ground deformation in urbanized areas. Developed models and methods have been implemented in one of the urban areas hazarded by underground mining activity. Vulnerability maps supported by satellite ground movement observation would mitigate the hazards of land displacements in urban areas close to mines.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, open source geographic information science (OS GIS), risk assessment on urbanized areas, satellite interferometry (InSAR)

Procedia PDF Downloads 139