Search results for: probability to pass the exam

Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: Gurbir Kaur, Surinder Pal Singh

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The present study is a part of the research work on the effect of limestone powder (LP), silica fume (SF) and metakaolin (MK), on the flexural fatigue performance of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). Corrugated rectangular steel fibres of size 0.6x2.0x35 mm at a constant volume fraction of 1.0% have been incorporated in all mix combinations as the reinforcing material. Three mix combinations were prepared by replacing 30% of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by weight with these cement additives in binary and ternary fashion to demonstrate their contribution. An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of all mix combinations at various stress levels. The fatigue life data have been analysed as an attempt to determine the relationship between stress level ‘S’, number of cycles to failure ‘N’ and probability of failure ‘Pf’ for all mix combinations. The experimental coefficients of the fatigue equation have also been obtained from the fatigue data to represent the S-N-Pf curves analytically.

Keywords: cement additives, fatigue life, probability of failure, steel fibre reinforced concrete

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Authors: J. S. Dhillon, K. K. Dhaliwal

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In almost all the digital filtering applications the digital infinite impulse response (IIR) filters are preferred over finite impulse response (FIR) filters because they provide much better performance, less computational cost and have smaller memory requirements for similar magnitude specifications. However, the digital IIR filters are generally multimodal with respect to the filter coefficients and therefore, reliable methods that can provide global optimal solutions are required. The artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is one such recently introduced meta-heuristic optimization algorithm. But in some cases it shows insufficiency while searching the solution space resulting in a weak exchange of information and hence is not able to return better solutions. To overcome this deficiency, the opposition based learning strategy is incorporated in ABC and hence a modified version called oppositional artificial bee colony (OABC) algorithm is proposed in this paper. Duplication of members is avoided during the run which also augments the exploration ability. The developed algorithm is then applied for the design of optimal and stable digital IIR filter structure where design of low-pass (LP) and high-pass (HP) filters is carried out. Fuzzy theory is applied to achieve maximize satisfaction of minimum magnitude error and stability constraints. To check the effectiveness of OABC, the results are compared with some well established filter design techniques and it is observed that in most cases OABC returns better or atleast comparable results.

Keywords: digital infinite impulse response filter, artificial bee colony optimization, opposition based learning, digital filter design, multi-parameter optimization

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Authors: Shanza Akram, Sameen Toor, Heba Harb Abu Alkass, Zainab Abdulsalam Altaha, Sara Taha Abdulla, Saleem Imran

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Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common disease and can be fatal. The clinical presentation is variable and nonspecific, making accurate diagnosis difficult. Testing patients with suspected acute PE has increased dramatically. However, the overuse of some tests, particularly CT and D-dimer measurement, may not improve care while potentially leading to patient harm and unnecessary expense. CTPA is the investigation of choice for PE. Its easy availability, accuracy and ability to provide alternative diagnosis has lowered the threshold for performing it, resulting in its overuse. Guidelines have recommended the use of clinical pretest probability tools such as ‘Wells score’ to assess risk of suspected PE. Unfortunately, implementation of guidelines in clinical practice is inconsistent. This has led to low risk patients being subjected to unnecessary imaging, exposure to radiation and possible contrast related complications. Aim: To study the diagnostic yield of CT PA, clinical pretest probability of patients according to wells score and to determine whether or not there was an overuse of CTPA in our service. Methods: CT scans done on patients with suspected P.E in our hospital from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Medical records were reviewed to study demographics, clinical presentation, final diagnosis, and to establish if Wells score and D-Dimer were used correctly in predicting the probability of PE and the need for subsequent CTPA. Results: 100 patients (51male) underwent CT PA in the time period. Mean age was 57 years (24-91 years). Majority of patients presented with shortness of breath (52%). Other presenting symptoms included chest pain 34%, palpitations 6%, collapse 5% and haemoptysis 5%. D Dimer test was done in 69%. Overall Wells score was low (<2) in 28 %, moderate (>2 - < 6) in 47% and high (> 6) in 15% of patients. Wells score was documented in medical notes of only 20% patients. PE was confirmed in 12% (8 male) patients. 4 had bilateral PE’s. In high-risk group (Wells > 6) (n=15), there were 5 diagnosed PEs. In moderate risk group (Wells >2 - < 6) (n=47), there were 6 and in low risk group (Wells <2) (n=28), one case of PE was confirmed. CT scans negative for PE showed pleural effusion in 30, Consolidation in 20, atelactasis in 15 and pulmonary nodule in 4 patients. 31 scans were completely normal. Conclusion: Yield of CT for pulmonary embolism was low in our cohort at 12%. A significant number of our patients who underwent CT PA had low Wells score. This suggests that CT PA is over utilized in our institution. Wells score was poorly documented in medical notes. CT-PA was able to detect alternative pulmonary abnormalities explaining the patient's clinical presentation. CT-PA requires concomitant pretest clinical probability assessment to be an effective diagnostic tool for confirming or excluding PE. . Clinicians should use validated clinical prediction rules to estimate pretest probability in patients in whom acute PE is being considered. Combining Wells scores with clinical and laboratory assessment may reduce the need for CTPA.

Keywords: CT PA, D dimer, pulmonary embolism, wells score

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: S. Khakurel, R. P. Dhakal, T. Z. Yeow

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Downtime is one of the major sources (alongside damage and injury/death) of financial loss incurred by a structure in an earthquake. The length of downtime associated with a building after an earthquake varies depending on the time taken for the reaction (to the earthquake), decision (on the future course of action) and execution (of the decided course of action) phases. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings is a key step in the decision making process to decide the appropriate safety placarding as well as to decide whether a damaged building is to be repaired or demolished. The aim of the present study is to develop a model to quantify downtime associated with the post-earthquake building-assessment phase in terms of two parameters; i) duration of the different assessment phase; and ii) probability of different colour tagging. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings includes three stages; Level 1 Rapid Assessment including a fast external inspection shortly after the earthquake, Level 2 Rapid Assessment including a visit inside the building and Detailed Engineering Evaluation (if needed). In this study, the durations of all three assessment phases are first estimated from the total number of damaged buildings, total number of available engineers and the average time needed for assessing each building. Then, probability of different tag colours is computed from the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquake Sequence database. Finally, a downtime model for the post-earthquake building inspection phase is proposed based on the estimated phase length and probability of tag colours. This model is expected to be used for rapid estimation of seismic downtime within the Loss Optimisation Seismic Design (LOSD) framework.

Keywords: assessment, downtime, LOSD, Loss Optimisation Seismic Design, phase length, tag color

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Authors: Leslie M. Gutman

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Conduct problems (CP) represent a major dilemma, with wide-ranging and long-lasting individual and societal impacts. Children experience heterogeneous patterns of conduct problems; based on the age of onset, developmental course and related risk factors from around age 3. Early childhood represents a potential window for intervention efforts aimed at changing the trajectory of early starting conduct problems. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206 children), this study (a) identifies trajectories of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years and (b) assesses the cumulative and interactive effects of individual, family and socioeconomic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years. The same factors according to three domains were assessed, including child (i.e., low verbal ability, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, emotional problems), family (i.e., single families, parental poor physical and mental health, large family size) and socioeconomic (i.e., low family income, low parental education, unemployment, social housing). A cumulative risk score for the child, family, and socioeconomic domains at each age was calculated. It was then examined how the cumulative risk scores explain variation in the trajectories of conduct problems. Lastly, interactive effects among the different domains of cumulative risk were tested. Using group-based trajectory modeling, four distinct trajectories were found including a ‘low’ problem group and three groups showing childhood-onset conduct problems: ‘school-age onset’; ‘early-onset, desisting’; and ‘early-onset, persisting’. The ‘low’ group (57% of the sample) showed a low probability of conducts problems, close to zero, from 3 to 14 years. The ‘early-onset, desisting’ group (23% of the sample) demonstrated a moderate probability of CP in early childhood, with a decline from 3 to 5 years and a low probability thereafter. The ‘early-onset, persistent’ group (8%) followed a high probability of conduct problems, which declined from 11 years but was close to 70% at 14 years. In the ‘school-age onset’ group, 12% of the sample showed a moderate probability of conduct problems from 3 and 5 years, with a sharp increase by 7 years, increasing to 50% at 14 years. In terms of individual risk, all factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-onset groups compared to the ‘low’ group. For cumulative risk, the socioeconomic domain at 9 months and 3 years, the family domain at all ages except 14 years and child domain at all ages were found to differentiate childhood-onset groups from the ‘low’ group. Cumulative risk at 9 months and 3 years did not differentiate between the ‘school-onset’ group and ‘low’ group. Significant interactions were found between the domains for the ‘early-onset, desisting group’ suggesting that low levels of risk in one domain may buffer the effects of high risk in another domain. The implications of these findings for preventive interventions will be highlighted.

Keywords: conduct problems, cumulative risk, developmental trajectories, early childhood, adolescence

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Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

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Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Mohsen Maraoui

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In the aim of natural language processing applications improvement, such as information retrieval, machine translation, lexical disambiguation, we focus on statistical approach to semantic indexing for multilingual text documents based on conceptual network formalism. We propose to use this formalism as an indexing language to represent the descriptive concepts and their weighting. These concepts represent the content of the document. Our contribution is based on two steps. In the first step, we propose the extraction of index terms using the multilingual lexical resource Euro WordNet (EWN). In the second step, we pass from the representation of index terms to the representation of index concepts through conceptual network formalism. This network is generated using the EWN resource and pass by a classification step based on association rules model (in attempt to discover the non-taxonomic relations or contextual relations between the concepts of a document). These relations are latent relations buried in the text and carried by the semantic context of the co-occurrence of concepts in the document. Our proposed indexing approach can be applied to text documents in various languages because it is based on a linguistic method adapted to the language through a multilingual thesaurus. Next, we apply the same statistical process regardless of the language in order to extract the significant concepts and their associated weights. We prove that the proposed indexing approach provides encouraging results.

Keywords: concept extraction, conceptual network formalism, fuzzy association rules, multilingual thesaurus, semantic indexing

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Authors: Marwane Ben Hcine, Ridha Bouallegue

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The aim of this work is to provide an original analytical framework for downlink effective SINR evaluation in LTE networks. The classical single carrier SINR performance evaluation is extended to multi-carrier systems operating over frequency selective channels. Extension is achieved by expressing the link outage probability in terms of the statistics of the effective SINR. For effective SINR computation, the exponential effective SINR mapping (EESM) method is used on this work. Closed-form expression for the link outage probability is achieved assuming a log skew normal approximation for single carrier case. Then we rely on the lognormal approximation to express the exponential effective SINR distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of the SINR of a generic subcarrier. Achieved formulas is easily computable and can be obtained for a user equipment (UE) located at any distance from its serving eNodeB. Simulations show that the proposed framework provides results with accuracy within 0.5 dB.

Keywords: LTE, OFDMA, effective SINR, log skew normal approximation

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Authors: Dalia El Hadi, Alaa Bou Ghannam, Hala Mostafa, Hana Mansour, Ibrahim Hashim, Soubhi Tahhan, Tharwat El Zahran

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Introduction: Neuro-ophthalmological emergencies require prompt assessment and management to avoid vision or life-threatening sequelae. Some would require neuroimaging. Most commonly used are the CT and MRI of the Brain. They can be over-used when not indicated. Their yield remains dependent on multiple factors relating to the clinical scenario. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted by reviewing the electronic medical records of patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with isolated neuro-ophthalmologic complaints. For each patient, data were collected on the clinical presentation, whether neuroimaging was performed (and which type), and the result of neuroimaging. Analysis of the performed neuroimaging was made, and its yield was determined. Results: A total of 211 patients were reviewed. The complaints or symptoms at presentation were: blurry vision, change in the visual field, transient vision loss, floaters, double vision, eye pain, eyelid droop, headache, dizziness and others such as nausea or vomiting. In the ED, a total of 126 neuroimaging procedures were performed. Ninety-four imagings (74.6%) were normal, while 32 (25.4%) had relevant abnormal findings. Only 2 symptoms were significant for abnormal imaging: blurry vision (p-value= 0.038) and visual field change (p-value= 0.014). While 4 physical exam findings had significant abnormal imaging: visual field defect (p-value= 0.016), abnormal pupil reactivity (p-value= 0.028), afferent pupillary defect (p-value= 0.018), and abnormal optic disc exam (p-value= 0.009). Conclusion: Risk indicators for abnormal neuroimaging in the setting of neuro-ophthalmological emergencies are blurred vision or changes in the visual field on history taking. While visual field irregularities, abnormal pupil reactivity with or without afferent pupillary defect, or abnormal optic discs, are risk factors related to physical testing. These findings, when present, should sway the ED physician towards neuroimaging but still individualizing each case is of utmost importance to prevent time-consuming, resource-draining, and sometimes unnecessary workup. In the end, it suggests a well-structured patient-centered algorithm to be followed by ED physicians.

Keywords: emergency department, neuro-ophthalmology, neuroimaging, risk indicators

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Authors: Franklin N. Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

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In order to increase and bridge the differences in rice yield, many farmers have resorted to adopting Farmer Innovation Systems (FISs) and Improved Agricultural Technologies (IATs). This study econometrically analysed the impacts of adoption of FISs and IATs on rice yield using multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR). Nine-hundred and seven (907) rice farmers from Guinea Savannah Zone (GSZ), Forest Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) and Coastal Savannah Zone (CSZ) were used for the study. The study used both primary and secondary data. FBO advice, rice farming experience and distance from farming communities to input markets increase farmers’ adoption of only FISs. Factors that increase farmers’ probability of adopting only IATs are access to extension advice, credit, improved seeds and contract farming. Farmers located in CSZ have higher probability of adopting only IATs than their counterparts living in other agro-ecological zones. Age and access to input subsidy increase the probability of jointly adopting FISs and IATs. FISs and IATs have heterogeneous impact on rice yield with adoption of only IATs having the highest impact followed by joint adoption of FISs and IATs. It is important for stakeholders in rice subsector to champion the provision of improved rice seeds, the intensification of agricultural extension services and contract farming concept. Researchers should endeavour to researched into FISs.

Keywords: farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, multinomial endogenous switching regression, treatment effect

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: A. Moawad, K. C. Yao, A. Mansour, R. Gautier

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The detecting of an occupied frequency band is a major issue in cognitive radio systems. The detection process becomes difficult if the signal occupying the band of interest has faded amplitude due to multipath effects. These effects make it hard for an occupying user to be detected. This work mitigates the missed-detection problem in the context of cognitive radio in frequency-selective fading channel by proposing blind channel estimation method that is based on scattering transform. By initially applying conventional energy detection, the missed-detection probability is evaluated, and if it is greater than or equal to 50%, channel estimation is applied on the received signal followed by channel equalization to reduce the channel effects. In the proposed channel estimator, we modify the Morlet wavelet by using its first derivative for better frequency resolution. A mathematical description of the modified function and its frequency resolution is formulated in this work. The improved frequency resolution is required to follow the spectral variation of the channel. The channel estimation error is evaluated in the mean-square sense for different channel settings, and energy detection is applied to the equalized received signal. The simulation results show improvement in reducing the missed-detection probability as compared to the detection based on principal component analysis. This improvement is achieved at the expense of increased estimator complexity, which depends on the number of wavelet filters as related to the channel taps. Also, the detection performance shows an improvement in detection probability for low signal-to-noise scenarios over principal component analysis- based energy detection.

Keywords: channel estimation, cognitive radio, scattering transform, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

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Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: network capacity, packet loss probability, quality of experience, quality of service

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: K. O'Malley

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Background: The emergence and rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) (i.e., models of generative artificial intelligence, or AI) has been unprecedented. ChatGPT is one of the most widely used LLM platforms. Using natural language processing technology, it generates customized responses to user prompts, enabling it to mimic human conversation. Responses are generated using predictive modeling of vast internet text and data swathes and are further refined and reinforced through user feedback. The popularity of LLMs is increasing, with a growing number of students utilizing these platforms for study and revision purposes. Notwithstanding its many novel applications, LLM technology is inherently susceptible to bias and error. This poses a significant challenge in the educational setting, where academic integrity may be undermined. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the latest iteration of ChatGPT (ChatGPT4.0) in standardized state medical licensing examinations. Methods: A considered search strategy was used to interrogate the PubMed electronic database. The keywords ‘ChatGPT’ AND ‘medical education’ OR ‘medical school’ OR ‘medical licensing exam’ were used to identify relevant literature. The search included all peer-reviewed literature published in the past five years. The search was limited to publications in the English language only. Eligibility was ascertained based on the study title and abstract and confirmed by consulting the full-text document. Data was extracted into a Microsoft Excel document for analysis. Results: The search yielded 345 publications that were screened. 225 original articles were identified, of which 11 met the pre-determined criteria for inclusion in a narrative synthesis. These studies included performance assessments in national medical licensing examinations from the United States, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Taiwan, Japan and Germany. ChatGPT 4.0 achieved scores ranging from 67.1 to 88.6 percent. The mean score across all studies was 82.49 percent (SD= 5.95). In all studies, ChatGPT exceeded the threshold for a passing grade in the corresponding exam. Conclusion: The capabilities of ChatGPT in standardized academic assessment in medicine are robust. While this technology can potentially revolutionize higher education, it also presents several challenges with which educators have not had to contend before. The overall strong performance of ChatGPT, as outlined above, may lend itself to unfair use (such as the plagiarism of deliverable coursework) and pose unforeseen ethical challenges (arising from algorithmic bias). Conversely, it highlights potential pitfalls if users assume LLM-generated content to be entirely accurate. In the aforementioned studies, ChatGPT exhibits a margin of error between 11.4 and 32.9 percent, which resonates strongly with concerns regarding the quality and veracity of LLM-generated content. It is imperative to highlight these limitations, particularly to students in the early stages of their education who are less likely to possess the requisite insight or knowledge to recognize errors, inaccuracies or false information. Educators must inform themselves of these emerging challenges to effectively address them and mitigate potential disruption in academic fora.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, generative ai, large language models, licensing exam, medical education, medicine, university

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Authors: Ramandeep Kaur, Makula Ajitha

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Fluvastatin has been reported for increasing bone mineral density in osteoporosis since last decade. Systemically administered drug undergoes extensive hepatic first-pass metabolism, thus very small amount of drug reaches the bone tissue which is highly insignificant. The present study aims to deliver fluvastatin in the form of nanoemulsion (NE) gel directly to the bone tissue through transdermal route thereby bypassing hepatic first pass metabolism. The NE formulation consisted of isopropyl myristate as oil, tween 80 as surfactant, transcutol as co-surfactant and water as the aqueous phase. Pseudoternary phase diagrams were constructed using aqueous titration method and NE’s obtained were subjected to thermodynamic-kinetic stability studies. The stable NE formulations were evaluated for their droplet size, zeta potential, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The nano-sized formulations were incorporated into 0.5% carbopol 934 gel matrix. Ex-vivo permeation behaviour of selected formulations through rat skin was investigated and compared with the conventional formulations (suspension and emulsion). Further, in-vivo pharmacokinetic study was carried using male Wistar rats. The optimized NE formulations mean droplet size was 11.66±3.2 nm with polydispersity index of 0.117. Permeation flux of NE gel formulations was found significantly higher than the conventional formulations i.e. suspension and emulsion. In vivo pharmacokinetic study showed significant increase in bioavailability (1.25 fold) of fluvastatin than oral formulation. Thus, it can be concluded that NE gel was successfully developed for transdermal delivery of fluvastatin for the treatment of osteoporosis.

Keywords: fluvastatin, nanoemulsion gel, osteoporosis, transdermal

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Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

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With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Shiao-Wei Chu

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In order to enhance the ability of their graduates to compete in an increasingly globalized economy, the majority of universities in Taiwan require students to pass Freshman English in order to earn a bachelor's degree. However, many college students show low motivation in English class for several important reasons, including exam-oriented lessons, unengaging classroom activities, a lack of opportunities to use English in authentic contexts, and low levels of confidence in using English. Students’ lack of motivation in English classes is evidenced when students doze off, work on assignments from other classes, or use their phones to chat with others, play video games or watch online shows. Cooperative learning aims to address these problems by encouraging language learners to use the target language to share individual experiences, cooperatively complete tasks, and to build a supportive classroom learning community whereby students take responsibility for one another’s learning. This study includes approximately 50 student participants in a low-proficiency Freshman English class. Each week, participants will work together in groups of between 3 and 4 students to complete various in-class interactive tasks. The instructor will employ a reward system that incentivizes students to be responsible for their own as well as their group mates’ learning. The rewards will be based on points that team members earn through formal assessment scores as well as assessment of their participation in weekly in-class discussions. The instructor will record each team’s week-by-week improvement. Once a team meets or exceeds its own earlier performance, the team’s members will each receive a reward from the instructor. This cooperative learning approach aims to stimulate EFL freshmen’s learning motivation by creating a supportive, low-pressure learning environment that is meant to build learners’ self-confidence. Students will practice all four language skills; however, the present study focuses primarily on the learners’ reading comprehension. Data sources include in-class discussion notes, instructor field notes, one-on-one interviews, students’ midterm and final written reflections, and reading scores. Triangulation is used to determine themes and concerns, and an instructor-colleague analyzes the qualitative data to build interrater reliability. Findings are presented through the researcher’s detailed description. The instructor-researcher has developed this approach in the classroom over several terms, and its apparent success at motivating students inspires this research. The aims of this study are twofold: first, to examine the possible benefits of this cooperative approach in terms of students’ learning outcomes; and second, to help other educators to adapt a more cooperative approach to their classrooms.

Keywords: freshman English, cooperative language learning, EFL learners, learning motivation, zone of proximal development

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Shahab Uddin, Kazi M. Uddin, Hamamah Sadiqa

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The paper deals with the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge (BMB), the 11th longest bridge in the world was constructed in 1998 aimed at contributing to promote economic development in Bangladesh. In recent years, however, the high incidence of traffic accidents and injuries at the bridge sites looms as a great safety concern. Investigation into the derailment of nine bogies out of thirteen of Dinajpur-bound intercity train ‘Drutajan Express ’were derailed and inclined on the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge on 28 April 2014. The train accident in Bridge will be deep concern for both structural safety of bridge and people than other vehicles accident. In this study we analyzed the disaster probability of the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge for accidents by checking the fitness of Bridge structure. We found that train accident impact is more risky than other vehicles accidents. We also found that socio-economic impact on Bangladesh will be deep concerned.

Keywords: train accident, derailment, disaster, socio-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 302