Search results for: cardiovascular events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2686

Search results for: cardiovascular events

2416 GUI Design of Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular-Respiratory System

Authors: Ntaganda J.M., Maniraguha J.D., Mukeshimana S., Harelimana D, Bizimungu T., Ruataganda E.

Abstract:

This paper presents the design of Graphic User Interface (GUI) in Matlab as interaction tool between human and machine. The designed GUI can be used by medical doctors and other experts particularly the physiologists. Matlab packages and estimated parameters of the mathematical model of cardiovascular-respiratory system developed in Rwandan context are used in GUI. The ordinary differential equations (ODE’s) govern a mathematical model in designing GUI in Matlab and a window that sets model estimated parameters and the measured parameters by any user. For healthy subject, these measured parameters include heart rate, systolic blood and diastolic blood pressure, partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood, partial pressure of carbon dioxide in arterial blood, concentration of bound and dissolved oxygen in the mixed venous blood entering the lungs, and concentration of bound and dissolved carbon dioxide in the mixed venous blood entering the lungs. The results of numerical test give a consistent appearance as empirically known results.

Keywords: Graphic User Interface, mathematical model, cardiovascur-respiratory system, walking physical activity, blood pressure, oxygen

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2415 Day Ahead and Intraday Electricity Demand Forecasting in Himachal Region using Machine Learning

Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

Abstract:

Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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2414 The Effects of Extreme Precipitation Events on Ecosystem Services

Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

Abstract:

Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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2413 Analysis of Cardiovascular Diseases Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Jyotismita Talukdar

Abstract:

In this paper, a study has been made on the possibility and accuracy of early prediction of several Heart Disease using Artificial Neural Network. (ANN). The study has been made in both noise free environment and noisy environment. The data collected for this analysis are from five Hospitals. Around 1500 heart patient’s data has been collected and studied. The data is analysed and the results have been compared with the Doctor’s diagnosis. It is found that, in noise free environment, the accuracy varies from 74% to 92%and in noisy environment (2dB), the results of accuracy varies from 62% to 82%. In the present study, four basic attributes considered are Blood Pressure (BP), Fasting Blood Sugar (FBS), Thalach (THAL) and Cholesterol (CHOL.). It has been found that highest accuracy(93%), has been achieved in case of PPI( Post-Permanent-Pacemaker Implementation ), around 79% in case of CAD(Coronary Artery disease), 87% in DCM (Dilated Cardiomyopathy), 89% in case of RHD&MS(Rheumatic heart disease with Mitral Stenosis), 75 % in case of RBBB +LAFB (Right Bundle Branch Block + Left Anterior Fascicular Block), 72% for CHB(Complete Heart Block) etc. The lowest accuracy has been obtained in case of ICMP (Ischemic Cardiomyopathy), about 38% and AF( Atrial Fibrillation), about 60 to 62%.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, chronic stable angina, sick sinus syndrome, cardiovascular disease, cholesterol, Thalach

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2412 The Impact of Dust Storm Events on the Chemical and Toxicological Characteristics of Ambient Particulate Matter in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Mohammed Kalafy, Badr Alharbi, Constantinos Sioutas

Abstract:

In this study, we investigated the chemical and toxicological characteristics of PM10 in the metropolitan area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. PM10 samples were collected on quartz and teflon filters during cold (December 2019–April 2020) and warm (May 2020–August 2020) seasons, including dust and non-dust events. The PM10 constituents were chemically analyzed for their metal, inorganic ions, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) contents. Additionally, the PM10 oxidative potential was measured by means of the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Our findings revealed that the oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM10 samples was significantly higher than those measured in many urban areas worldwide. The oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM¹⁰⁻ samples was also higher during dust episodes compared to non-dust events, mainly due to higher concentrations of metals during these events. We performed Pearson correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multi-linear regression (MLR) to identify the most significant sources contributing to the toxicity of PM¹⁰⁻ The results of the MLR analyses indicated that the major pollution sources contributing to the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 were soil and resuspended dust emissions (identified by Al, K, Fe, and Li) (31%), followed by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation (traced by SO₄-² and NH+₄) (20%), and industrial activities (identified by Se and La) (19%), and traffic emissions (characterized by EC, Zn, and Cu) (17%). Results from this study underscore the impact of transported dust emissions on the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 in Riyadh and can be helpful in adopting appropriate public health policies regarding detrimental outcomes of exposure to PM₁₀-

Keywords: ambient PM10, oxidative potential, source apportionment, Riyadh, dust episodes

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2411 Series "H154M" as a Unit Area of the Region between the Lines and Curves

Authors: Hisyam Hidayatullah

Abstract:

This world events consciously or not realize everything has a pattern, until the events of the universe according to the Big Bang theory of the solar system which makes so regular in the rotation. The author would like to create a results curve area between the quadratic function y=kx2 and line y=ka2 using GeoGebra application version 4.2. This paper can provide a series that is no less interesting with Fourier series, so that will add new material about the series can be calculated with sigma notation. In addition, the ranks of the unique natural numbers of extensive changes in established areas. Finally, this paper provides analytical and geometric proof of the vast area in between the lines and curves that give the area is formed by y=ka2 dan kurva y=kx2, x-axis, line x=√a and x=-√a make a series of numbers for k=1 and a ∈ original numbers. ∑_(i=0)^n=(4n√n)/3=0+4/3+(8√2)/3+4√3+⋯+(4n√n)/3. The author calls the series “H154M”.

Keywords: sequence, series, sigma notation, application GeoGebra

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2410 Meiji Centennial as a Media Event: Ideas for Upcoming Turkish Republic Centennial

Authors: Hasan Topacoglu

Abstract:

The Meiji Restoration was a chain of events that restored Japan in 1868 and considered as the beginning of Japanese Modernization by many scholars. In 1968, to honor its modern incarnation, Japan celebrated Meiji Centennial as one of the biggest Media Events in the country after the World War II. It was celebrated all around the country throughout the year following with a central event in Tokyo. Meanwhile, Japanese scholars started an opposition movement and claimed that Government was using this event to raise nationalism, pointing at Government’s statement on the meaning of Meiji. Most of the scholars, unfortunately, were hooked into the ideological problem of the Government’s way of planning and evaluated it as a failure. However, scholars missed out an important point that apart from the central event in Tokyo, each city planned its own event and celebrated it on a different date, also with a different theme. For example, Kyoto showed a regional characteristic and focused on Kyoto’s own culture, tradition etc., and highlighted a further past than 100 years. This was mainly because some areas/cities had a different ‘memory’ for Meiji Restoration than Tokyo which was reflected through the way they celebrated Meiji Centennial. On the other hand, 2023 will be the year of Turkish Republic Centennial. A year which will be marked by national and maybe even international events. Although an official committee has not been announced yet, The 2023 Vision, a list of goals has been released by the Government to coincide with the centenary of the Republic of Turkey in 2023 and there are some ongoing projects that are planned to be completed by then. By looking at the content of these projects, it is possible to say that Government is aiming to focus on Modernization through the Centennial. However, some of the projects are already showing some interesting characteristics such as the Istanbul New Airport whose design is inspired by Selimiye Mosque’s Islamic-Ottoman figure. It is true that Turkey and Japan have different historical backgrounds and the timeline of the Meiji Restoration and Foundation of Turkish Republic are different. Therefore, a particular comparison between these two events is not justified. However, they may have more in common than we are up to think because, each country marked the start of a new nation conceived on modern principles. For that reason, it is important to understand the similarities or differences between Meiji Centennial and Turkish Republic Centennial as a media event. This study introduces Meiji Centennial as a media event and analyses opposition movement along with the meaning of Meiji Centennial. Additionally, it explains regional characteristic differences and gives Kyoto as an example. Moreover, it introduces some of the ongoing Centennial projects in Turkey and analyses the meaning of the Turkish Republic Centennial through these projects. Without comparing Japan and Turkey, it explains the case of Japan but the discussion centers on deepening our understanding of Centennial as a Media Event and remarks some important aspects for Turkey’s upcoming Centennial events.

Keywords: media events, Meiji centennial, the 2023 vision, Turkish republic centennial

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2409 Long-Term Results of Surgical Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease: One Center Experience

Authors: Emil Sakharov, Alex Zotov, Ilkin Osmanov, Oleg Shelest, Aleksander Troitskiy, Robert Khabazov

Abstract:

Objective: Since 2015, our center has been actively implementing methods of surgical correction of atrial fibrillation, in particular, in patients with coronary heart disease. The study presents a comparative analysis of the late postoperative period in patients with coronary artery bypass grafting and atrial fibrillation. Methods: The study included 150 patients with ischemic heart disease and atrial fibrillation for the period from 2015 to 2021. Patients were divided into 2 groups. The first group is represented by patients with ischemic heart disease and atrial fibrillation who underwent coronary bypass surgery and surgical correction of atrial fibrillation (N=50). The second group is represented by patients with ischemic heart disease and atrial fibrillation who underwent only myocardial revascularization (N=100). Patients were comparable in age, gender, and initial severity of the condition. Among the patients in group 1 there were 82% were men, while in the second group, their number was 75%. Among the patients of the first group, there were 36% with persistent atrial fibrillation, 20% with long-term persistent atrial fibrillation. In the second group, 10% with persistent atrial fibrillation and 17% with long-term persistent atrial fibrillation. Results: Average follow-up for groups 1 and 2 amounted to 47 months. There were no complications in group 1, such as bleeding and stroke. There was only 1 patient in group 1, who had died from cardiovascular disease. Freedom of atrial fibrillation was in 82% without AADs therapy. In group 2 there were 8 patients who had died from cardiovascular diseases and total freedom of atrial fibrillation was in 35% of patients, among which 42.8% had additional AADs therapy. Follow-up data are presented in Table 2. Progression of heart failure was observed in 3% in group 1 and 7% in group 2. Combined endpoints (recurrence of AF, stroke, progression of heart failure, myocardial infarction) were achieved in 16% in group 1 and 34% in group 2, respectively. Freedom from atrial fibrillation without antiarrhythmic therapy was 82% for group 1 and 35% for group 2. In the first group, there is a more pronounced decrease in heart failure rates. Deaths from cardiovascular causes were recorded in 2% for group 1 and 7% for group 2. Conclusion: Surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation helps to reduce adverse complications in the late postoperative period and contributes to the regression of heart failure.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, coronary artery bypass grafting, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure

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2408 Outcome of Naive SGLT2 Inhibitors Among ICU Admitted Acute Stroke with T2DM Patients a Prospective Cohort Study in NCMultispecialty Hospital, Biratnagar, Nepal

Authors: Birendra Kumar Bista, Rhitik Bista, Prafulla Koirala, Lokendra Mandal, Nikrsh Raj Shrestha, Vivek Kattel

Abstract:

Introduction: Poorly controlled diabetes is associated with cause and poor outcome of stroke. High blood sugar reduces cerebral blood flow, increases intracranial pressure, cerebral edema and neuronal death, especially among patients with poorly controlled diabetes.1 SGLT2 inhibitors are associated with 50% reduction in hemorrhagic stroke compared with placebo. SGLT2 inhibitors decrease cardiovascular events via reducing glucose, blood pressure, weight, arteriosclerosis, albuminuria and reduction of atrial fibrillation.2,3 No study has been documented in low income countries to see the role of post stroke SGLT2 inhibitors on diabetic patients at and after ICU admission. Aims: The aim of the study was to measure the 12 months outcome of diabetic patients with acute stroke admitted in ICU set up with naïve SGLT2 inhibitors add on therapy. Method: It was prospective cohort study carried out in a 250 bedded tertiary neurology care hospital at the province capital Biratnagar Nepal. Diabetic patient with acute stroke admitted in ICU from 1st January 2022 to 31st December 2022 who were not under SGLT2 inhibitors were included in the study. These patients were managed as per hospital protocol. Empagliflozin was added to the alternate enrolled patients. Empagliflozin was continued at the time of discharged and during follow up unless contraindicated. These patients were followed up for 12 months. Outcome measured were mortality, morbidity requiring readmission or hospital visit other than regular follow up, SGLT2 inhibitors related adverse events, neuropsychiatry comorbidity, functional status and biochemical parameters. Ethical permission was taken from hospital administration and ethical board. Results: Among 147 diabetic cases 68 were not treated with empagliflozin whereas 67 cases were started the SGLT2 inhibitors. HbA1c level and one year mortality was significantly low among patients on empaglifozin arm. Over a period of 12 months 427 acute stroke patients were admitted in the ICU. Out of them 44% were female, 61% hypertensive, 34% diabetic, 57% dyslipidemia, 26% smoker and with median age of 45 years. Among 427 cases 4% required neurosurgical interventions and 76% had hemorrhagic CVA. The most common reason for ICU admission was GCS<8 (51%). The median ICU stay was 5 days. ICU mortality was 21% whereas 1 year mortality was 41% with most common reason being pneumonia. Empaglifozin related adverse effect was seen in 11% most commonly lower urinary tract infection in 6%. Conclusion: Empagliflozin can safely be started among acute stroke with better Hba1C control and low mortality outcome compared to treatment without SGLT2 inhibitor.

Keywords: diabetes, ICU, mortality, SGLT2 inhibitors, stroke

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2407 The Ongoing Impact of Secondary Stressors on Businesses in Northern Ireland Affected by Flood Events

Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally, the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors

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2406 Formal Implementation of Routing Information Protocol Using Event-B

Authors: Jawid Ahmad Baktash, Tadashi Shiroma, Tomokazu Nagata, Yuji Taniguchi, Morikazu Nakamura

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to explore the use of formal methods for Dynamic Routing, The purpose of network communication with dynamic routing is sending a massage from one node to others by using pacific protocols. In dynamic routing connections are possible based on protocols of Distance vector (Routing Information Protocol, Border Gateway protocol), Link State (Open Shortest Path First, Intermediate system Intermediate System), Hybrid (Enhanced Interior Gateway Routing Protocol). The responsibility for proper verification becomes crucial with Dynamic Routing. Formal methods can play an essential role in the Routing, development of Networks and testing of distributed systems. Event-B is a formal technique consists of describing rigorously the problem; introduce solutions or details in the refinement steps to obtain more concrete specification, and verifying that proposed solutions are correct. The system is modeled in terms of an abstract state space using variables with set theoretic types and the events that modify state variables. Event-B is a variant of B, was designed for developing distributed systems. In Event-B, the events consist of guarded actions occurring spontaneously rather than being invoked. The invariant state properties must be satisfied by the variables and maintained by the activation of the events.

Keywords: dynamic rout RIP, formal method, event-B, pro-B

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2405 Impact of Meteorological Events and Sand Excavation on Turbidity and Total Suspended Solids Levels of Imo River

Authors: Ihejirika Chinedu Emeka, Njoku John Didacus, Obenade Moses

Abstract:

This study was aimed at determining the impact of meteorological events (seasonal variations) and sand excavation activities on turbidity and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) of Imo River, Southeastern Nigeria. In-situ measurements of the parameters were carried out at the peaks of two consecutive seasons–dry and rainy season at seven major points of sand excavation along the river, under standard analytical methods. There were significant variations in seasons (P<0.05) for turbidity and TSS at all locations. The average turbidity concentration of locations were 36.71 NTU, during the rainy season, and 17 NTU in a dry season, while the average TSS concentration were 27.14 mg/L, during the rainy season, and 8.86mg/L in a dry season. Turbidity correlated positively (strongly) with TSS (r=0.956) at R–Square=0.91. Turbidity and TSS values were higher during the rainy season than the dry season. Turbidity increased when Total Suspended Solids increased. Sand excavation increased turbidity and TSS values of Imo River. The river had moderate water quality during the rainy season and unimpaired water quality during a dry season. The river was not very clear in both seasons, but clearer in a dry season than in rainy season. The increase in turbidity and TSS can lead to the destruction of aquatic biodiversity and stagnation of ecosystem processes. Exposure of aquatic animals to the recorded turbidity level in a rainy season can lead to stress.

Keywords: biodiversity destruction, meteorological events, pollution, sand excavation

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2404 Metabolically Healthy Obesity and Protective Factors of Cardiovascular Diseases as a Result from a Longitudinal Study in Tebessa (East of Algeria)

Authors: Salima Taleb, Kafila Boulaba, Ahlem Yousfi, Nada Taleb, Difallah Basma

Abstract:

Introduction: Obesity is recognized as a cardiovascular risk factor. It is associated with cardio-metabolic diseases. Its prevalence is increasing significantly in both rich and poor countries. However, there are obese people who have no metabolic disturbance. So we think obesity is not always a risk factor for an abnormal metabolic profile that increases the risk of cardiometabolic problems. However, there is no definition that allows us to identify the individual group Metabolically Healthy but Obese (MHO). Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between MHO and some factors associated with it. Methods: A longitudinal study is a prospective cohort study of 600 participants aged ≥18 years. Metabolic status was assessed by the following parameters: blood pressure, fasting glucose, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as weight (in kg) divided by height (m2), BMI = Weight/(Height)². According to the BMI value, our population was divided into four groups: underweight subjects with BMI <18.5 kg/m2, normal weight subjects with BMI = 18.5–24.9 kg/m², overweight subjects with BMI=25–29.9 kg/m², and obese subjects who have (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²). A value of P < 0.05 was considered significant. Statistical processing was done using the SPSS 25 software. Results: During this study, 194 (32.33%) were identified as MHO among 416 (37%) obese individuals. The prevalence of the metabolically unhealthy phenotype among normal-weight individuals was (13.83%) vs. (37%) in obese individuals. Compared with metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals (10.93%), the prevalence of diabetes was (30.60%) in MHO, (20.59%) in metabolically unhealthy normal weight, and (52.29%) for metabolically unhealthy obese (p = 0.032). Blood pressure was significantly higher in MHO individuals than in metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals and in metabolically unhealthy obese than in metabolically unhealthy normal weight (P < 0.0001). Familial coronary artery disease does not appear to have an effect on the metabolic status of obese and normal-weight patients (P = 0.544). However, waist circumference appears to have an effect on the metabolic status of individuals (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: This study showed a high prevalence of metabolic profile disruption in normal-weight subjects and a high rate of overweight and/or obese people who are metabolically healthy. To understand the physiological mechanism related to these metabolic statuses, a thorough study is needed.

Keywords: metabolically health, obesity, factors associated, cardiovascular diseases

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2403 Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Trends in Central Italy

Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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2402 High-Resolution ECG Automated Analysis and Diagnosis

Authors: Ayad Dalloo, Sulaf Dalloo

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Electrocardiogram (ECG) recording is prone to complications, on analysis by physicians, due to noise and artifacts, thus creating ambiguity leading to possible error of diagnosis. Such drawbacks may be overcome with the advent of high resolution Methods, such as Discrete Wavelet Analysis and Digital Signal Processing (DSP) techniques. This ECG signal analysis is implemented in three stages: ECG preprocessing, features extraction and classification with the aim of realizing high resolution ECG diagnosis and improved detection of abnormal conditions in the heart. The preprocessing stage involves removing spurious artifacts (noise), due to such factors as muscle contraction, motion, respiration, etc. ECG features are extracted by applying DSP and suggested sloping method techniques. These measured features represent peak amplitude values and intervals of P, Q, R, S, R’, and T waves on ECG, and other features such as ST elevation, QRS width, heart rate, electrical axis, QR and QT intervals. The classification is preformed using these extracted features and the criteria for cardiovascular diseases. The ECG diagnostic system is successfully applied to 12-lead ECG recordings for 12 cases. The system is provided with information to enable it diagnoses 15 different diseases. Physician’s and computer’s diagnoses are compared with 90% agreement, with respect to physician diagnosis, and the time taken for diagnosis is 2 seconds. All of these operations are programmed in Matlab environment.

Keywords: ECG diagnostic system, QRS detection, ECG baseline removal, cardiovascular diseases

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2401 Perceptual Organization within Temporal Displacement

Authors: Michele Sinico

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The psychological present has an actual extension. When a sequence of instantaneous stimuli falls in this short interval of time, observers perceive a compresence of events in succession and the temporal order depends on the qualitative relationships between the perceptual properties of the events. Two experiments were carried out to study the influence of perceptual grouping, with and without temporal displacement, on the duration of auditory sequences. The psychophysical method of adjustment was adopted. The first experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement of a white noise on sequence duration. The second experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement, along the pitch dimension, on temporal shortening of sequence. The results suggest that the temporal order of sounds, in the case of temporal displacement, is organized along the pitch dimension.

Keywords: time perception, perceptual present, temporal displacement, Gestalt laws of perceptual organization

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2400 Optimizing Rehabilitation Transitions: Delays, Determinants, and Outcomes in Hip Fracture Patients

Authors: David Maman, David E. Rothem, Merav Ben Natan, Yaron Berkovich

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Introduction: Hip fractures are a major health concern due to their impact on disability, independence, and mortality. Timely rehabilitation is crucial for improving patient outcomes and reducing healthcare costs, yet delays in rehabilitation, often due to challenges in discharge processes, can lead to adverse events and increased healthcare burdens. Aim: The study aimed to investigate two primary aspects related to hip fracture older adults patients: firstly, identifying subgroups more prone to delayed discharge for further rehabilitation; and secondly, exploring the consequences of this delay on short-term outcomes and the incidence of adverse events. Methods: Conducting a retrospective analysis, we examined the medical records of 474 patients aged 65 and older, hospitalized for hip fractures between 2018 and 2022 in a major hospital in the north-central region of Israel. All patients were eligible for further rehabilitation, including options for in-patient or home-based care. Results: Of the studied patients, 61.4% experienced delayed discharge, with an average waiting period of 3.5 days. Factors such as older age, prolonged hospital stay, and the need for in-patient rehabilitation were associated with a higher likelihood of delayed discharge. Those promptly discharged demonstrated lower rates of infections, falls, and mortality. Furthermore, delayed discharge to further rehabilitation correlated with elevated hospitalization costs. Notably, no significant differences were observed in re-hospitalization or repeat surgery rates. Conclusion: This study underscores the pressing need for efficient strategies to ensure timely rehabilitation, particularly for older adults. Implementing such strategies can optimize outcomes, mitigate adverse events, and contribute to a reduction in healthcare costs.

Keywords: hip fracture rehabilitation, delayed discharge, older adults, healthcare coordination, adverse events

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2399 Morphology of Indian Female Athletes of Different Track and Field Events

Authors: Anju Luthra, Rajender Lal, Dhananjoy Shaw

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Participation in games and sports in the contemporary times has become more competing with the developed scientific knowledge, skills and methods, along with the equipment and applied research in the field. In spite of India being a large country having vast resources and potential, its performance in the world of sports on the whole needs sincere attention for better achievements. Beside numerous factors responsible for the dismal performance of a sportsperson, the physique and body composition, including the size, shape and form are known to play a significant role. The present investigation was undertaken to study the specific morphological characteristics of Indian female Track and Field athletes. A total of 300 athletes were randomly selected as sample for the purpose of the study from the six events having 50 athletes in each event including 100m., 400m., Shot Put, Discus Throw, Long Jump and High Jump. The study included body weight, body fat percentage, lean body weight, endomorphy, mesomorphy and ectomorphy as variables. The data were computed statistically by using Mean, Standard Deviation and Analysis of Variance. The post-hoc analysis was conducted where the F-ratio was found to be significant at .05 level. The study concluded that there is a significant difference with regard to the selected variables among the Indian female athletes of different track and field events.

Keywords: Indian female athletes, body composition, morphology, somatotypes, track and field

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2398 A Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program to Optimally Pace and Fuel Ultramarathons

Authors: Kristopher A. Pruitt, Justin M. Hill

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to determine the pacing and nutrition strategies which minimize completion time and carbohydrate intake for athletes competing in ultramarathon races. The model formulation consists of a two-phase optimization. The first-phase mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) determines the minimum completion time subject to the altitude, terrain, and distance of the race, as well as the mass and cardiovascular fitness of the athlete. The second-phase MINLP determines the minimum total carbohydrate intake required for the athlete to achieve the completion time prescribed by the first phase, subject to the flow of carbohydrates through the stomach, liver, and muscles. Consequently, the second phase model provides the optimal pacing and nutrition strategies for a particular athlete for each kilometer of a particular race. Validation of the model results over a wide range of athlete parameters against completion times for real competitive events suggests strong agreement. Additionally, the kilometer-by-kilometer pacing and nutrition strategies, the model prescribes for a particular athlete suggest unconventional approaches could result in lower completion times. Thus, the MINLP provides prescriptive guidance that athletes can leverage when developing pacing and nutrition strategies prior to competing in ultramarathon races. Given the highly-variable topographical characteristics common to many ultramarathon courses and the potential inexperience of many athletes with such courses, the model provides valuable insight to competitors who might otherwise fail to complete the event due to exhaustion or carbohydrate depletion.

Keywords: nutrition, optimization, pacing, ultramarathons

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2397 The Relationship between Physical Fitness and Academic Performance among University Students

Authors: Bahar Ayberk

Abstract:

The study was conducted to determine the relationship between physical fitness and academic performance among university students. A far-famed saying ‘Sound mind in a sound body’ referring to the potential quality of increased physical fitness in the intellectual development of individuals seems to be endorsed. There is a growing body of literature the impact of physical fitness on academic achievement, especially in elementary and middle-school aged children. Even though there are numerous positive effects related to being physically active and physical fitness, their effect on academic achievement is not very much clear for university students. The subjects for this study included 25 students (20 female and 5 male) enrolled in Yeditepe University, Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation Department of Health Science Faculty. All participants filled in a questionnaire about their socio-demographic status, general health status, and physical activity status. Health-related physical fitness testing, included several core components: 1) body composition evaluation (body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio), 2) cardiovascular endurance evaluation (queen’s college step test), 3) muscle strength and endurance evaluation (sit-up test, push-up test), 4) flexibility evaluation (sit and reach test). Academic performance evaluation was based on student’s Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA). The prevalence of the subjects participating physical activity was found to be 40% (n = 10). CGPA scores were significantly higher among students having regular physical activity when we compared the students having regular physical activities or not (respectively 2,71 ± 0.46, 3.02 ± 0.28 scores, p = 0.076). The result of the study also revealed that there is positive correlation relationship between sit-up, push up and academic performance points (CGPA) (r = 0.43, p ≤ 0.05 ) and negative correlation relationship between cardiovascular endurance parameter (Queen's College Step Test) and academic performance points (CGPA) (r = -0.47, p ≤ 0.05). In conclusion, the findings confirmed that physical fitness level was generally associated with academic performance in the study group. Cardiovascular endurance and muscle strength and endurance were associated with student’s CGPA, whereas body composition and flexibility were unrelated to CGPA.

Keywords: academic performance, health-related physical fitness, physical activity, physical fitness testing

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2396 Changing Left Ventricular Hypertrophy After Kidney Transplantation

Authors: Zohreh Rostami, Arezoo Khosravi, Mohammad Nikpoor Aghdam, Mahmood Salesi

Abstract:

Background: Cardiovascular mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients have a strong relationship with baseline or progressive left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) meanwhile in hemodialysis patients 10% decrement in left ventricular mass was associated with 28% reduction in cardiovascular mortality risk. In consonance with these arguments, we designed a study to measure morphological and functional echocardiographic variations early after transplantation. Method: The patients with normal renal function underwent two advanced echocardiographic studies to examine the structural and functional changes in left ventricular mass before and 3-month after transplantation. Results: From a total of 23 participants 21(91.3%) presented with left ventricular hypertrophy, 60.9% in eccentric and 30.4% in concentric group. Diastolic dysfunction improved in concentric group after transplantation. Both in pre and post transplantation global longitudinal strain (GLS)- average in eccentric group was more than concentric (-17.45 ± 2.75 vs -14.3 ± 3.38 p=0.03) and (-18.08 ± 2.6 vs -16.1 ± 2.7 p= 0.04) respectively. Conclusion: Improvement and recovery of left ventricular function in concentric group was better and sooner than eccentric after kidney transplantation. Although fractional shortening and diastolic function and GLS-4C in pre-transplantation in concentric group was worse than eccentric, but therapeutic response to kidney transplantation in concentric was more and earlier than eccentric group.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, end stage renal disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, global longitudinal strain

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2395 Antihypertensive Activity of Alcoholic Extract of Citrus Paradise Juice in One Clip One Kidney Hypertension Model in Rats

Authors: Lokesh Bhatt, Jayesh Rathod

Abstract:

Hypertension is one of the most prevalent cardiovascular disorder. It is responsible for several other cardiovascular disorders. Although many drugs are available for the treatment of hypertension, still a large population has uncontrolled blood pressure. Thus there is an unmet need for new therapeutic approaches for the same. Fruit juice of Citrus paradise contains several flavonoids with vasodilatory activity. We hypothesized that alcoholic extract of Citrus paradise, which contains flavonoids, might attenuate hypertension. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the antihypertensive activity of alcoholic extract of Citrus paradise fruit juice in rats. Hypertension was induced using one clip one kidney model in rats. The renal artery was occluded for 4 h after removal of one kidney. Once stabilized, the ganglionic blockade was performed followed by removal of the arterial clip from the kidney. Removal of clip resulted in an increase in blood pressure which is due to release of renin from the kidney. Alcoholic extract of Citrus paradise fruit juice was then administered at 50 mg/kg and 100 mg/kg dose by intravenous injection. Blood pressure was monitored continuously. Alcoholic extract of Citrus paradise fruit juice reduced hypertension in dose-dependent manner. Antihypertensive activity was found to be associated with vasodilation. The results of the present study showed antihypertensive potential of alcoholic extract of Citrus paradise fruit juice.

Keywords: citrus paradise, alcoholic extract, one clip one kidney model, vasodilation

Procedia PDF Downloads 282
2394 A Deep Learning Approach to Real Time and Robust Vehicular Traffic Prediction

Authors: Bikis Muhammed, Sehra Sedigh Sarvestani, Ali R. Hurson, Lasanthi Gamage

Abstract:

Vehicular traffic events have overly complex spatial correlations and temporal interdependencies and are also influenced by environmental events such as weather conditions. To capture these spatial and temporal interdependencies and make more realistic vehicular traffic predictions, graph neural networks (GNN) based traffic prediction models have been extensively utilized due to their capability of capturing non-Euclidean spatial correlation very effectively. However, most of the already existing GNN-based traffic prediction models have some limitations during learning complex and dynamic spatial and temporal patterns due to the following missing factors. First, most GNN-based traffic prediction models have used static distance or sometimes haversine distance mechanisms between spatially separated traffic observations to estimate spatial correlation. Secondly, most GNN-based traffic prediction models have not incorporated environmental events that have a major impact on the normal traffic states. Finally, most of the GNN-based models did not use an attention mechanism to focus on only important traffic observations. The objective of this paper is to study and make real-time vehicular traffic predictions while incorporating the effect of weather conditions. To fill the previously mentioned gaps, our prediction model uses a real-time driving distance between sensors to build a distance matrix or spatial adjacency matrix and capture spatial correlation. In addition, our prediction model considers the effect of six types of weather conditions and has an attention mechanism in both spatial and temporal data aggregation. Our prediction model efficiently captures the spatial and temporal correlation between traffic events, and it relies on the graph attention network (GAT) and Bidirectional bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) plus attention layers and is called GAT-BILSTMA.

Keywords: deep learning, real time prediction, GAT, Bi-LSTM, attention

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2393 Cognitive Based Approach to Organizational Development

Authors: Tatiana V. Korsakova

Abstract:

The cognitive methodology in management is considered: Cognitive structuring - the formation of ideas about the functioning of a developing organization; Cognitive modeling - heuristic construction of existing actions (zone of successful actions); and Cognitive construct - the formation of filters for converting external information into specific events of managerial reality. The major findings of the study are the identification of areas of successful actions in the organization, harmonization of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of company management, and the frame-description that indicates the connection of environmental elements with the elements of the organization. It is stated the development of specific events of managerial reality in the direction of the further development of the organization depends on the personal cognitive construct of the development-subjects when it is used in the zone of successful actions.

Keywords: cognitive construct, focus of applicability, knowledge corporate culture, zones of successful actions

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2392 Inflammatory and Cardio Hypertrophic Remodeling Biomarkers in Patients with Fabry Disease

Authors: Margarita Ivanova, Julia Dao, Andrew Friedman, Neil Kasaci, Rekha Gopal, Ozlem Goker-Alpan

Abstract:

In Fabry disease (FD), α-galactosidase A (α-Gal A) deficiency leads to the accumulation of globotriaosylceramide (Lyso-Gb3 and Gb3), triggering a pathologic cascade that causes the severity of organs damage. The heart is one of the several organs with high sensitivity to the α-Gal A deficiency. A subgroup of patients with significant residual of α-Gal A activity with primary cardiac involvement is occasionally referred to as “cardiac variant.” The cardiovascular complications are most frequently encountered, contributing substantially to morbidity, and are the leading cause of premature death in male and female patients with FD. The deposition of Lyso-Gb-3 and Gb-3 within the myocardium affects cardiac function with resultant progressive cardiovascular pathology. Gb-3 and Lyso-Gb-3 accumulation at the cellular level trigger a cascade of events leading to end-stage fibrosis. In the cardiac tissue, Lyso-Gb-3 deposition is associated with the increased release of inflammatory factors and transforming growth factors. Infiltration of lymphocytes and macrophages into endomyocardial tissue indicates that inflammation plays a significant role in cardiac damage. Moreover, accumulated data suggest that chronic inflammation leads to multisystemic FD pathology even under enzyme replacement therapy (ERT). NF-κB activation plays a subsequent role in the inflammatory response to cardiac dysfunction and advanced heart failure in the general population. TNFalpha/NF-κB signaling protects the myocardial evoking by ischemic preconditioning; however, this protective effect depends on the concentration of TNF-α. Thus, we hypothesize that TNF-α is a critical factor in determining the grade of cardio-pathology. Cardiac hypertrophy corresponds to the expansion of the coronary vasculature to maintain a sufficient supply of nutrients and oxygen. Coronary activation of angiogenesis and fibrosis plays a vital role in cardiac vascularization, hypertrophy, and tissue remodeling. We suggest that the interaction between the inflammatory pathways and cardiac vascularization is a bi-directional process controlled by secreted cytokines and growth factors. The co-coordination of these two processes has never been explored in FD. In a cohort of 40 patients with FD, biomarkers associated with inflammation and cardio hypertrophic remodeling were studied. FD patients were categorized into three groups based on LVmass/DSA, LVEF, and ECG abnormalities: FD with no cardio complication, FD with moderate cardio complication, and severe cardio complication. Serum levels of NF-kB, TNFalpha, Il-6, Il-2, MCP1, ING-gamma, VEGF, IGF-1, TGFβ, and FGF2 were quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Among the biomarkers, MCP-1, INF-gamma, VEGF, TNF-alpha, and TGF-beta were elevated in FD patients. Some of these biomarkers also have the potential to correlate with cardio pathology in FD. Conclusion: The study provides information about the role of inflammatory pathways and biomarkers of cardio hypertrophic remodeling in FD patients. This study will also reveal the mechanisms that link intracellular accumulation of Lyso-GB-3 and Gb3 to the development of cardiomyopathy with myocardial thickening and resultant fibrosis.

Keywords: biomarkers, Fabry disease, inflammation, growth factors

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2391 ZBTB17 Gene rs10927875 Polymorphism in Slovak Patients with Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kmec, E. Petrejčíková

Abstract:

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a severe cardiovascular disorder characterized by progressive systolic dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient myocardial contractility often leading to chronic heart failure. Recently, a genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on DCM indicate that the ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 single nucleotide polymorphism is associated with DCM. The aim of the study was to identify the distribution of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism in 50 Slovak patients with DCM and 80 healthy control subjects using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Risk factors detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. The mean age of patients with DCM was 52.9±6.3 years; the mean age of individuals in control group was 50.3±8.9 years. The distribution of investigated genotypes of rs10927875 polymorphism within ZBTB17 gene in the cohort of Slovak patients with DCM was as follows: CC (38.8%), CT (55.1%), TT (6.1%), in controls: CC (43.8%), CT (51.2%), TT (5.0%). The risk allele T was more common among the patients with dilated cardiomyopathy than in normal controls (33.7% versus 30.6%). The differences in genotype or allele frequencies of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism were not statistically significant (p=0.6908; p=0.6098). The results of this study suggest that ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism may be a risk factor for susceptibility to DCM in Slovak patients with DCM. Studies of numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to fully understand the roles of genetic associations.

Keywords: ZBTB17 gene, rs10927875 polymorphism, dilated cardiomyopathy, cardiovascular disorder

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2390 Trend Analysis for Extreme Rainfall Events in New South Wales, Australia

Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

Abstract:

Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (sub-daily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 263
2389 Early Warning System of Financial Distress Based On Credit Cycle Index

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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2388 Advanced Combinatorial Method for Solving Complex Fault Trees

Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

Abstract:

Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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2387 UEFA Super Cup: Economic Effects on Georgian Economy

Authors: Giorgi Bregadze

Abstract:

Tourism is the most viable and sustainable economic development option for Georgia and one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings. Events are considered as one of the most effective ways to attract foreign visitors to the country, and, recently, the government of Georgia has begun investing in this sector very actively. This article stresses the necessity of research based economic policy in the tourism sector. In this regard, it is of paramount importance to measure the economic effects of the events which are subsidized by taxpayers’ money. The economic effect of events can be analyzed from two perspectives; financial perspective of the government and perspective of economic effects of the tourism administration. The article emphasizes more realistic and all-inclusive focus of the economic effect analysis of the tourism administration as it concentrates on the income of residents and local businesses, part of which generate tax revenues for the government. The public would like to know what the economic returns to investment are. In this article, the methodology used to describe the economic effects of UEFA Super Cup held in Tbilisi, will help to answer this question. Methodology is based on three main principles and covers three stages. Using the suggested methodology article estimates the direct economic effect of UEFA Super cup on Georgian economy. Although the attempt to make an economic effect analysis of the event was successful in Georgia, some obstacles and insufficiencies were identified during the survey. The article offers several recommendations that will help to refine methodology and improve the accuracy of the data. Furthermore, it is very important to receive the correct standard of measurement of events in Georgia. In this caseü non-ethical acts of measurement which are widely utilized by different research companies will not trigger others to show overestimated effects. It is worth mentioning that to author’s best knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the economic effect of an event held in Georgia.

Keywords: biased economic effect analysis, expenditure of local citizens, time switchers and casuals, UEFA super cup

Procedia PDF Downloads 150