Search results for: drift function and volatility function
5296 Nonparametric Specification Testing for the Drift of the Short Rate Diffusion Process Using a Panel of Yields
Authors: John Knight, Fuchun Li, Yan Xu
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Based on a new method of the nonparametric estimator of the drift function, we propose a consistent test for the parametric specification of the drift function in the short rate diffusion process using observations from a panel of yields. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric drift function is correctly specified, and converges to infinity under the alternative. Taking the daily 7-day European rates as a proxy of the short rate, we use our test to examine whether the drift of the short rate diffusion process is linear or nonlinear, which is an unresolved important issue in the short rate modeling literature. The testing results indicate that none of the drift functions in this literature adequately captures the dynamics of the drift, but nonlinear specification performs better than the linear specification.Keywords: diffusion process, nonparametric estimation, derivative security price, drift function and volatility function
Procedia PDF Downloads 3575295 Portfolio Optimization under a Hybrid Stochastic Volatility and Constant Elasticity of Variance Model
Authors: Jai Heui Kim, Sotheara Veng
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This paper studies the portfolio optimization problem for a pension fund under a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and constant elasticity of variance (CEV) using asymptotic analysis method. When the volatility component is fast mean-reverting, it is able to derive asymptotic approximations for the value function and the optimal strategy for general utility functions. Explicit solutions are given for the exponential and hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions. The study also shows that using the leading order optimal strategy results in the value function, not only up to the leading order, but also up to first order correction term. A practical strategy that does not depend on the unobservable volatility level is suggested. The result is an extension of the Merton's solution when stochastic volatility and elasticity of variance are considered simultaneously.Keywords: asymptotic analysis, constant elasticity of variance, portfolio optimization, stochastic optimal control, stochastic volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 2915294 Calibration of Hybrid Model and Arbitrage-Free Implied Volatility Surface
Authors: Kun Huang
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This paper investigates whether the combination of local and stochastic volatility models can be calibrated exactly to any arbitrage-free implied volatility surface of European option. The risk neutral Brownian Bridge density is applied for calibration of the leverage function of our Hybrid model. Furthermore, the tails of marginal risk neutral density are generated by Generalized Extreme Value distribution in order to capture the properties of asset returns. The local volatility is generated from the arbitrage-free implied volatility surface using stochastic volatility inspired parameterization.Keywords: arbitrage free implied volatility, calibration, extreme value distribution, hybrid model, local volatility, risk-neutral density, stochastic volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 2585293 The Estimation Method of Inter-Story Drift for Buildings Based on Evolutionary Learning
Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park
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The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to reduce seismic damage. The inter-story drift ratio which is the major index of the seismic capacity assessment is employed for estimating the seismic damage of buildings. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the structural responses of building demands significantly high computational cost due to increasing number of high-rise and large buildings. To estimate the inter-story drift ratio of buildings from the earthquake efficiently, this paper suggests the estimation method of inter-story drift for buildings using an artificial neural network (ANN). In the method, the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is integrated with optimization algorithm to optimize the variable through evolutionary learning that refers to evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN). The estimation method estimates the inter-story drift without seismic response analysis when the new earthquakes are subjected to buildings. The effectiveness of the estimation method is verified through a simulation using multi-degree of freedom system.Keywords: structural health monitoring, inter-story drift ratio, artificial neural network, radial basis function neural network, genetic algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 3225292 Bayesian Value at Risk Forecast Using Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectiel Mdodel with an Application of Cryptocurrency
Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan
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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 1005291 A Multivariate 4/2 Stochastic Covariance Model: Properties and Applications to Portfolio Decisions
Authors: Yuyang Cheng, Marcos Escobar-Anel
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This paper introduces a multivariate 4/2 stochastic covariance process generalizing the one-dimensional counterparts presented in Grasselli (2017). Our construction permits stochastic correlation not only among stocks but also among volatilities, also known as co-volatility movements, both driven by more convenient 4/2 stochastic structures. The parametrization is flexible enough to separate these types of correlation, permitting their individual study. Conditions for proper changes of measure and closed-form characteristic functions under risk-neutral and historical measures are provided, allowing for applications of the model to risk management and derivative pricing. We apply the model to an expected utility theory problem in incomplete markets. Our analysis leads to closed-form solutions for the optimal allocation and value function. Conditions are provided for well-defined solutions together with a verification theorem. Our numerical analysis highlights and separates the impact of key statistics on equity portfolio decisions, in particular, volatility, correlation, and co-volatility movements, with the latter being the least important in an incomplete market.Keywords: stochastic covariance process, 4/2 stochastic volatility model, stochastic co-volatility movements, characteristic function, expected utility theory, verication theorem
Procedia PDF Downloads 1465290 Modelling High-Frequency Crude Oil Dynamics Using Affine and Non-Affine Jump-Diffusion Models
Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong
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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo
Procedia PDF Downloads 915289 The Implementation of Secton Method for Finding the Root of Interpolation Function
Authors: Nur Rokhman
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A mathematical function gives relationship between the variables composing the function. Interpolation can be viewed as a process of finding mathematical function which goes through some specified points. There are many interpolation methods, namely: Lagrange method, Newton method, Spline method etc. For some specific condition, such as, big amount of interpolation points, the interpolation function can not be written explicitly. This such function consist of computational steps. The solution of equations involving the interpolation function is a problem of solution of non linear equation. Newton method will not work on the interpolation function, for the derivative of the interpolation function cannot be written explicitly. This paper shows the use of Secton method to determine the numerical solution of the function involving the interpolation function. The experiment shows the fact that Secton method works better than Newton method in finding the root of Lagrange interpolation function.Keywords: Secton method, interpolation, non linear function, numerical solution
Procedia PDF Downloads 3705288 Throughput of Point Coordination Function (PCF)
Authors: Faisel Eltuhami Alzaalik, Omar Imhemed Alramli, Ahmed Mohamed Elaieb
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The IEEE 802.11 defines two modes of MAC, distributed coordination function (DCF) and point coordination function (PCF) mode. The first sub-layer of the MAC is the distributed coordination function (DCF). A contention algorithm is used via DCF to provide access to all traffic. The point coordination function (PCF) is the second sub-layer used to provide contention-free service. PCF is upper DCF and it uses features of DCF to establish guarantee access of its users. Some papers and researches that have been published in this technology were reviewed in this paper, as well as talking briefly about the distributed coordination function (DCF) technology. The simulation of the PCF function have been applied by using a simulation program called network simulator (NS2) and have been found out the throughput of a transmitter system by using this function.Keywords: DCF, PCF, throughput, NS2
Procedia PDF Downloads 5685287 On a Univalent Function and the Integral Means of Its Derivative
Authors: Shatha S. Alhily
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The purpose of this research paper is to show all the possible values of the pth power of the integrable function which make the integral means of the derivative of univalent function existing and finite.Keywords: derivative, integral means, self conformal maps, univalent function
Procedia PDF Downloads 6235286 Determinants of International Volatility Passthroughs of Agricultural Commodities: A Panel Analysis of Developing Countries
Authors: Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo
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The extant literature has not succeeded in uncovering the common determinants of price volatility transmissions of agricultural commodities from international to local markets, and further, has rarely investigated the role of self-sufficiency measures in the context of national food security. We analyzed various factors to determine the degree of price volatility transmissions of wheat, rice, and maize between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specifications and panel-feasible generalized least square models. We found that the grain autarky system has the potential to diminish volatility pass-throughs for three grain commodities. Furthermore, it was discovered that the substitutive commodity consumption behavior between maize and wheat buffers the volatility transmissions of both, but rice does not function as a transmission-relieving element, either for the volatilities of wheat or maize. The effectiveness of grain consumption substitution to insulate the pass-throughs from global markets is greater than that of cereal self-sufficiency. These implications are extremely beneficial for developing governments to protect their domestic food markets from uncertainty in foreign countries and as such, improves food security.Keywords: food security, GARCH, grain self-sufficiency, volatility transmission
Procedia PDF Downloads 1485285 Solution of the Nonrelativistic Radial Wave Equation of Hydrogen Atom Using the Green's Function Approach
Authors: F. U. Rahman, R. Q. Zhang
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This work aims to develop a systematic numerical technique which can be easily extended to many-body problem. The Lippmann Schwinger equation (integral form of the Schrodinger wave equation) is solved for the nonrelativistic radial wave of hydrogen atom using iterative integration scheme. As the unknown wave function appears on both sides of the Lippmann Schwinger equation, therefore an approximate wave function is used in order to solve the equation. The Green’s function is obtained by the method of Laplace transform for the radial wave equation with excluded potential term. Using the Lippmann Schwinger equation, the product of approximate wave function, the Green’s function and the potential term is integrated iteratively. Finally, the wave function is normalized and plotted against the standard radial wave for comparison. The outcome wave function converges to the standard wave function with the increasing number of iteration. Results are verified for the first fifteen states of hydrogen atom. The method is efficient and consistent and can be applied to complex systems in future.Keywords: Green’s function, hydrogen atom, Lippmann Schwinger equation, radial wave
Procedia PDF Downloads 3865284 Superiority of High Frequency Based Volatility Models: Empirical Evidence from an Emerging Market
Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin
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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data
Procedia PDF Downloads 4815283 A Compressor Map Optimizing Tool for Prediction of Compressor Off-Design Performance
Authors: Zhongzhi Hu, Jie Shen, Jiqiang Wang
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A high precision aeroengine model is needed when developing the engine control system. Compared with other main components, the axial compressor is the most challenging component to simulate. In this paper, a compressor map optimizing tool based on the introduction of a modifiable β function is developed for FWorks (FADEC Works). Three parameters (d density, f fitting coefficient, k₀ slope of the line β=0) are introduced to the β function to make it modifiable. The comparison of the traditional β function and the modifiable β function is carried out for a certain type of compressor. The interpolation errors show that both methods meet the modeling requirements, while the modifiable β function can predict compressor performance more accurately for some areas of the compressor map where the users are interested in.Keywords: beta function, compressor map, interpolation error, map optimization tool
Procedia PDF Downloads 2595282 A Stochastic Volatility Model for Optimal Market-Making
Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson
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The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading
Procedia PDF Downloads 1385281 The Relationship between Top Management Replacement and Risk, Sale and Cash Volatilities with Respect to Unqualified Audit Opinion
Authors: Mehdi Dasineh, Yadollah Tariverdi, Marzieh H. Takhti
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This paper investigated the relationship between top management turnover with risk volatility, sale volatility and fluctuations in the company's cash depending on the unqualified audit report in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). In this study, we examined 104 firms over the period 2009-2014 which were selected from (TSE). There was 624 observed year-company data in this research. Hypotheses of this research have been evaluated by using regression tests for example F-statistical and Durbin-Watson. Based on our sample we found significant relationship between top management replacement and risk volatility, sale Volatility and cash volatility with tendency unqualified audit opinion.Keywords: top management replacement, risk volatility, sale volatility, cash volatility, unqualified audit opinion
Procedia PDF Downloads 2755280 Closed Forms of Trigonometric Series Interms of Riemann’s ζ Function and Dirichlet η, λ, β Functions or the Hurwitz Zeta Function and Harmonic Numbers
Authors: Slobodan B. Tričković
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We present the results concerned with trigonometric series that include sine and cosine functions with a parameter appearing in the denominator. We derive two types of closed-form formulas for trigonometric series. At first, for some integer values, as we know that Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ equal zero at negative even integers, whereas Dirichlet’s β function equals zero at negative odd integers, after a certain number of members, the rest of the series vanishes. Thus, a trigonometric series becomes a polynomial with coefficients involving Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ, β functions. On the other hand, in some cases, one cannot immediately replace the parameter with any positive integer because we shall encounter singularities. So it is necessary to take a limit, so in the process, we apply L’Hospital’s rule and, after a series of rearrangements, we bring a trigonometric series to a form suitable for the application of Choi-Srivastava’s theorem dealing with Hurwitz’s zeta function and Harmonic numbers. In this way, we express a trigonometric series as a polynomial over Hurwitz’s zeta function derivative.Keywords: Dirichlet eta lambda beta functions, Riemann's zeta function, Hurwitz zeta function, Harmonic numbers
Procedia PDF Downloads 935279 Volatility Spillover Among the Stock Markets of South Asian Countries
Authors: Tariq Aziz, Suresh Kumar, Vikesh Kumar, Sheraz Mustafa, Jhanzeb Marwat
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The paper provides an updated version of volatility spillover among the equity markets of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Srilanka, and Bangladesh. The analysis uses both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models to investigate volatility persistence and leverage effect. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission between two equity markets. Weekly data for the period February 2013 to August 2019 is used for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the leverage effect exists in the equity markets of all the countries except Bangladesh. The volatility spillover from the equity market of Bangladesh to all other countries is negative and significant whereas the volatility of the equity market of Sri-Lanka does influence the volatility of any other country’s equity market. Indian equity market influence only the volatility of the Sri-Lankan equity market; and there is bidirectional volatility spillover between the equity markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The findings are important for policy-makers and international investors.Keywords: volatility spillover, volatility persistence, garch, egarch
Procedia PDF Downloads 1295278 Stability Analysis of SEIR Epidemic Model with Treatment Function
Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit
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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function
Procedia PDF Downloads 5095277 Integration of Quality Function Deployment and Modular Function Deployment in Product Development
Authors: Naga Velamakuri, Jyothi K. Reddy
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Quality must be designed into a product and not inspected has become the main motto of all the companies globally. Due to the rapidly increasing technology in the past few decades, the nature of demands from the consumers has become more sophisticated. To sustain this global revolution of innovation in production systems, companies have to take steps to accommodate this technology growth. In this process of understanding the customers' expectations, all the firms globally take steps to deliver a perfect output. Most of these techniques also concentrate on the consistent development and optimization of the product to exceed the expectations. Quality Function Deployment(QFD) and Modular Function Deployment(MFD) are such techniques which rely on the voice of the customer and help deliver the needs. In this paper, Quality Function Deployment and Modular Function Deployment techniques which help in converting the quantitative descriptions to qualitative outcomes are discussed. The area of interest would be to understand the scope of each of the techniques and the application range in product development when these are applied together to any problem. The research question would be mainly aimed at comprehending the limitations using modularity in product development.Keywords: quality function deployment, modular function deployment, house of quality, methodology
Procedia PDF Downloads 3165276 VaR Estimation Using the Informational Content of Futures Traded Volume
Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda
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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 2745275 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models
Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar
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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3035274 Design of a Drift Assist Control System Applied to Remote Control Car
Authors: Sheng-Tse Wu, Wu-Sung Yao
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In this paper, a drift assist control system is proposed for remote control (RC) cars to get the perfect drift angle. A steering servo control scheme is given powerfully to assist the drift driving. A gyroscope sensor is included to detect the machine's tail sliding and to achieve a better automatic counter-steering to prevent RC car from spinning. To analysis tire traction and vehicle dynamics is used to obtain the dynamic track of RC cars. It comes with a control gain to adjust counter-steering amount according to the sensor condition. An illustrated example of 1:10 RC drift car is given and the real-time control algorithm is realized by Arduino Uno.Keywords: drift assist control system, remote control cars, gyroscope, vehicle dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 3905273 A Transfer Function Representation of Thermo-Acoustic Dynamics for Combustors
Authors: Myunggon Yoon, Jung-Ho Moon
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In this paper, we present a transfer function representation of a general one-dimensional combustor. The input of the transfer function is a heat rate perturbation of a burner and the output is a flow velocity perturbation at the burner. This paper considers a general combustor model composed of multiple cans with different cross sectional areas, along with a non-zero flow rate.Keywords: combustor, dynamics, thermoacoustics, transfer function
Procedia PDF Downloads 3715272 Statistical Inferences for GQARCH-It\^{o} - Jumps Model Based on The Realized Range Volatility
Authors: Fu Jinyu, Lin Jinguan
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This paper introduces a novel approach that unifies two types of models: one is the continuous-time jump-diffusion used to model high-frequency data, and the other is discrete-time GQARCH employed to model low-frequency financial data by embedding the discrete GQARCH structure with jumps in the instantaneous volatility process. This model is named “GQARCH-It\^{o} -Jumps mode.” We adopt the realized range-based threshold estimation for high-frequency financial data rather than the realized return-based volatility estimators, which entail the loss of intra-day information of the price movement. Meanwhile, a quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GQARCH structure with jumps is developed for the parametric estimate. The asymptotic theories are mainly established for the proposed estimators in the case of finite activity jumps. Moreover, simulation studies are implemented to check the finite sample performance of the proposed methodology. Specifically, it is demonstrated that how our proposed approaches can be practically used on some financial data.Keywords: It\^{o} process, GQARCH, leverage effects, threshold, realized range-based volatility estimator, quasi-maximum likelihood estimate
Procedia PDF Downloads 1455271 Geometric Properties of Some q-Bessel Functions
Authors: İbrahim Aktaş, Árpád Baricz
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In this paper, the radii of star likeness of the Jackson and Hahn-Exton q-Bessel functions are considered, and for each of them three different normalizations is applied. By applying Euler-Rayleigh inequalities for the first positive zeros of these functions tight lower, and upper bounds for the radii of starlikeness of these functions are obtained. The Laguerre-Pólya class of real entire functions plays an important role in this study. In particular, we obtain some new bounds for the first positive zero of the derivative of the classical Bessel function of the first kind.Keywords: bessel function, lommel function, radius of starlikeness and convexity, Struve function
Procedia PDF Downloads 2705270 On the Fractional Integration of Generalized Mittag-Leffler Type Functions
Authors: Christian Lavault
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In this paper, the generalized fractional integral operators of two generalized Mittag-Leffler type functions are investigated. The special cases of interest involve the generalized M-series and K-function, both introduced by Sharma. The two pairs of theorems established herein generalize recent results about left- and right-sided generalized fractional integration operators applied here to the M-series and the K-function. The note also results in important applications in physics and mathematical engineering.Keywords: Fox–Wright Psi function, generalized hypergeometric function, generalized Riemann– Liouville and Erdélyi–Kober fractional integral operators, Saigo's generalized fractional calculus, Sharma's M-series and K-function
Procedia PDF Downloads 4325269 Particle Swarm Optimization and Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization to Multidimensional Function Approximation
Authors: Diogo Silva, Fadul Rodor, Carlos Moraes
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This work compares the results of multidimensional function approximation using two algorithms: the classical Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). These algorithms were both tested on three functions - The Rosenbrock, the Rastrigin, and the sphere functions - with different characteristics by increasing their number of dimensions. As a result, this study shows that the higher the function space, i.e. the larger the function dimension, the more evident the advantages of using the QPSO method compared to the PSO method in terms of performance and number of necessary iterations to reach the stop criterion.Keywords: PSO, QPSO, function approximation, AI, optimization, multidimensional functions
Procedia PDF Downloads 5705268 Volatility Model with Markov Regime Switching to Forecast Baht/USD
Authors: Nop Sopipan
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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD
Procedia PDF Downloads 2945267 Characteristic Function in Estimation of Probability Distribution Moments
Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev
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In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique, author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.Keywords: characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation
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