Search results for: statistical simulation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4542

Search results for: statistical simulation.

4242 Genetically Optimized TCSC Controller for Transient Stability Improvement

Authors: Sidhartha Panda, N.P.Padhy, R.N.Patel

Abstract:

This paper presents a procedure for modeling and tuning the parameters of Thyristor Controlled Series Compensation (TCSC) controller in a multi-machine power system to improve transient stability. First a simple transfer function model of TCSC controller for stability improvement is developed and the parameters of the proposed controller are optimally tuned. Genetic algorithm (GA) is employed for the optimization of the parameter-constrained nonlinear optimization problem implemented in a simulation environment. By minimizing an objective function in which the oscillatory rotor angle deviations of the generators are involved, transient stability performance of the system is improved. The proposed TCSC controller is tested on a multi-machine system and the simulation results are presented. The nonlinear simulation results validate the effectiveness of proposed approach for transient stability improvement in a multimachine power system installed with a TCSC. The simulation results also show that the proposed TCSC controller is also effective in damping low frequency oscillations.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, TCSC, transient stability, multimachinepower system.

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4241 Simulation Aided Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Framework for Manufacturing Design and Management

Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Ilias Oraifige

Abstract:

Decision making for sustainable manufacturing design and management requires critical considerations due to the complexity and partly conflicting issues of economic, social and environmental factors. Although there are tools capable of assessing the combination of one or two of the sustainability factors, the frameworks have not adequately integrated all the three factors. Case study and review of existing simulation applications also shows the approach lacks integration of the sustainability factors. In this paper we discussed the development of a simulation based framework for support of a holistic assessment of sustainable manufacturing design and management. To achieve this, a strategic approach is introduced to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing decision supporting tools. Investigation reveals that Discrete Event Simulation (DES) can serve as a rock base for other Life Cycle Analysis frameworks. Simio-DES application optimizes systems for both economic and competitive advantage, Granta CES EduPack and SimaPro collate data for Material Flow Analysis and environmental Life Cycle Assessment, while social and stakeholders’ analysis is supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis method. Such a common and integrated framework creates a platform for companies to build a computer simulation model of a real system and assess the impact of alternative solutions before implementing a chosen solution.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation, life cycle sustainability analysis, manufacturing, sustainability.

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4240 Spectrum Analysis with Monte Cralo Simulation, BEAMnrc, for Low Energy X-RAY

Authors: Z. Salehi Dehyagani, A. L. Yusoff

Abstract:

BEAMnrc was used to calculate the spectrum and HVL for X-ray Beam during low energy X-ray radiation using tube model: SRO 33/100 /ROT 350 Philips. The results of BEAMnrc simulation and measurements were compared to the IPEM report number 78 and SpekCalc software. Three energies 127, 103 and 84 Kv were used. In these simulation a tungsten anode with 1.2 mm for Be window were used as source. HVLs were calculated from BEAMnrc spectrum with air Kerma method for four different filters. For BEAMnrc one billion particles were used as original particles for all simulations. The results show that for 127 kV, there was maximum 5.2 % difference between BEAMnrc and Measurements and minimum was 0.7% .the maximum 9.1% difference between BEAMnrc and IPEM and minimum was 2.3% .The maximum difference was 3.2% between BEAMnrc and SpekCal and minimum was 2.8%. The result show BEAMnrc was able to satisfactory predict the quantities of Low energy Beam as well as high energy X-ray radiation.

Keywords: BEAMnr , Monte Carlo , HVL

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4239 The Application of the Queuing Theory in the Traffic Flow of Intersection

Authors: Shuguo Yang, Xiaoyan Yang

Abstract:

It is practically significant to research the traffic flow of intersection because the capacity of intersection affects the efficiency of highway network directly. This paper analyzes the traffic conditions of an intersection in certain urban by the methods of queuing theory and statistical experiment, sets up a corresponding mathematical model and compares it with the actual values. The result shows that queuing theory is applied in the study of intersection traffic flow and it can provide references for the other similar designs.

Keywords: Intersection, Queuing theory, Statistical experiment, System metrics.

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4238 Numerical Simulation for a Shallow Braced Excavation of Campus Building

Authors: Sao-Jeng Chao, Wen-Cheng Chen, Wei-Humg Lu

Abstract:

In order to prevent encountering unpredictable factors, geotechnical engineers always conduct numerical analysis for braced excavation design. Simulation work in advance can predict the response of subsequent excavation and thus will be designed to increase the security coefficient of construction. The parameters that are considered include geological conditions, soil properties, soil distributions, loading types, and the analysis and design methods. National Ilan University is located on the LanYang plain, mainly deposited by clayey soil and loose sand, and thus is vulnerable to external influence displacement. National Ilan University experienced a construction of braced excavation with a complete program of monitoring excavation. This study takes advantage of a one-dimensional finite element method RIDO to simulate the excavation process. The predicted results from numerical simulation analysis are compared with the monitored results of construction to explore the differences between them. Numerical simulation analysis of the excavation process can be used to analyze retaining structures for the purpose of understanding the relationship between the displacement and supporting system. The resulting deformation and stress distribution from the braced excavation cab then be understand in advance. The problems can be prevented prior to the construction process, and thus acquire all the affected important factors during design and construction.

Keywords: Excavation, numerical simulation, rido, retaining structure.

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4237 Virtualization Technology as a Tool for Teaching Computer Networks

Authors: Dalibor Dobrilovic, Borislav Odadžic

Abstract:

In this paper is being described a possible use of virtualization technology in teaching computer networks. The virtualization can be used as a suitable tool for creating virtual network laboratories, supplementing the real laboratories and network simulation software in teaching networking concepts. It will be given a short description of characteristic projects in the area of virtualization technology usage in network simulation, network experiments and engineering education. A method for implementing laboratory has also been explained, together with possible laboratory usage and design of laboratory exercises. At the end, the laboratory test results of virtual laboratory are presented as well.

Keywords: Computer network simulation software, teaching networking concepts, virtual network laboratory, virtualization technology.

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4236 The Integrated Studies of Infectious Disease Using Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation

Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich

Abstract:

In this paper we develop and analyze the model for the spread of Leptospirosis by age group in Thailand, between 1997 and 2010 by using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Leptospirosis is caused by pathogenic spirochetes of the genus Leptospira. It is a zoonotic disease of global importance and an emerging health problem in Thailand. In Thailand, leptospirosis is a reportable disease, the top three age groups are 23.31% in 35-44 years olds group, 22.76% in 25-34 year olds group, 17.60% in 45-54 year olds group from reported leptospirosis between 1997 and 2010, with a peak in 35-44 year olds group. Our paper, the Leptosipirosis transmission by age group in Thailand is studied on the mathematical model. Some analytical and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Age Group, Equilibrium State, Leptospirosis, Mathematical Modeling.

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4235 Self-Tuning Fuzzy Control of Seat Vibrations of Active Quarter Car Model

Authors: Devdutt

Abstract:

An active quarter car model with three degrees of freedom is presented for vibration reduction of passenger seat. The designed Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) and Self-Tuning Fuzzy Logic Controller (STFLC) are applied in seat suspension. Vibration control performance of active and passive quarter car systems are determined using simulation work. Simulation results in terms of passenger seat acceleration and displacement responses are compared for controlled and uncontrolled cases. Simulation results showed the improved results of both FLC and STFLC controllers in improving passenger ride comfort compared to uncontrolled case. Furthermore, the best performance in simulation studies is achieved by STFLC controlled suspension system compared to FLC controlled and uncontrolled cases.

Keywords: Active suspension system, quarter car model, passenger ride comfort, self-tuning fuzzy logic controller.

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4234 Conventional Design and Simulation of an Urban Hybrid Bus

Authors: A. Khanipour, K. M. Ebrahimi, W. J. Seale

Abstract:

Due to heightened concerns over environmental and economic issues the growing important of air pollution, and the importance of conserving fossil fuel resources in the world, the automotive industry is now forced to produce more fuel efficient, low emission vehicles and new drive system technologies. One of the most promising technologies to receive attention is the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), which consists of two or more energy sources that supply energy to electric traction motors that in turn drive the wheels. This paper presents the various structures of HEV systems, the basic theoretical knowledge for describing their operation and the general behaviour of the HEV in acceleration, cruise and deceleration phases. The conventional design and sizing of a series HEV is studied. A conventional bus and its series configuration are defined and evaluated using the ADVISOR. In this section the simulation of a standard driving cycle and prediction of its fuel consumption and emissions of the HEV are discussed. Finally the bus performance is investigated to establish whether it can satisfy the performance, fuel consumption and emissions requested. The validity of the simulation has been established by the close conformity between the fuel consumption of the conventional bus reported by the manufacturer to what has achieved from the simulation.

Keywords: Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Hybridization, LEV, HEV.

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4233 Optimization of Electrospinning Parameter by Employing Genetic Algorithm in order to Produce Desired Nanofiber Diameter

Authors: S. Saehana, F. Iskandar, M. Abdullah, Khairurrijal

Abstract:

A numerical simulation of optimization all of electrospinning processing parameters to obtain smallest nanofiber diameter have been performed by employing genetic algorithm (GA). Fitness function in genetic algorithm methods, which was different for each parameter, was determined by simulation approach based on the Reneker’s model. Moreover, others genetic algorithm parameter, namely length of population, crossover and mutation were applied to get the optimum electrospinning processing parameters. In addition, minimum fiber diameter, 32 nm, was achieved from a simulation by applied the optimum parameters of electrospinning. This finding may be useful for process control and prediction of electrospun fiber production. In this paper, it is also compared between predicted parameters with some experimental results.

Keywords: Diameter, Electrospinning, GA, Nanofiber.

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4232 Development of a Complex Meteorological Support System for UAVs

Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

Abstract:

The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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4231 Dynamic Ultrasound Scatterer Simulation Model Using Field-II and FEM for Speckle Tracking

Authors: Aws Al-azawi, John Soraghan

Abstract:

There is a growing interest in the use of ultrasonic speckle tracking for biomedical image formation of tissue deformation. Speckle tracking is angle independent and has an ability to differentiate soft tissue into benign and malignant regions. In this paper a simulation model for dynamic ultrasound scatterer is presented. The model composes Field-II ultrasonic scatterers and FEM (ANSYS-11) nodes as a regional tissue deformation. A performance evaluation is presented on axial displacement and strain fields estimation of a uniformly elastic model, using speckle tracking based 1D cross-correlation of optimally segmented pre and post-deformation frames. Optimum correlation window length is investigated in terms of highest signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for a selected region of interest of a smoothed displacement field. Finally, gradient based strain field of both smoothed and non-smoothed displacement fields are compared. Simulation results from the model are shown to compare favorably with FEM results.

Keywords: Speckle tracking, tissue deformation, ultrasonic simulation.

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4230 Finite Element Simulation of Multi-Stage Deep Drawing Processes and Comparison with Experimental Results

Authors: A. Pourkamali Anaraki, M. Shahabizadeh, B. Babaee

Abstract:

The plastic forming process of sheet plate takes an important place in forming metals. The traditional techniques of tool design for sheet forming operations used in industry are experimental and expensive methods. Prediction of the forming results, determination of the punching force, blank holder forces and the thickness distribution of the sheet metal will decrease the production cost and time of the material to be formed. In this paper, multi-stage deep drawing simulation of an Industrial Part has been presented with finite element method. The entire production steps with additional operations such as intermediate annealing and springback has been simulated by ABAQUS software under axisymmetric conditions. The simulation results such as sheet thickness distribution, Punch force and residual stresses have been extracted in any stages and sheet thickness distribution was compared with experimental results. It was found through comparison of results, the FE model have proven to be in close agreement with those of experiment.

Keywords: Deep drawing, Finite element method, Simulation.

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4229 CFD Simulation of SO2 Removal from Gas Mixtures using Ceramic Membranes

Authors: Azam Marjani, Saeed Shirazian

Abstract:

This work deals with modeling and simulation of SO2 removal in a ceramic membrane by means of FEM. A mass transfer model was developed to predict the performance of SO2 absorption in a chemical solvent. The model was based on solving conservation equations for gas component in the membrane. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) of mass and momentum were used to solve the model equations. The simulations aimed to obtain the distribution of gas concentration in the absorption process. The effect of the operating parameters on the efficiency of the ceramic membrane was evaluated. The modeling findings showed that the gas phase velocity has significant effect on the removal of gas whereas the liquid phase does not affect the SO2 removal significantly. It is also indicated that the main mass transfer resistance is placed in the membrane and gas phase because of high tortuosity of the ceramic membrane.

Keywords: Gas separation, finite element, ceramic, sulphur dioxide, simulation.

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4228 Induction Heating Process Design Using Comsol® Multiphysics Software Version 4.2a

Authors: K. Djellabi, M. E. H. Latreche

Abstract:

Induction heating computer simulation is a powerful tool for process design and optimization, induction coil design, equipment selection, as well as education and business presentations. The authors share their vast experience in the practical use of computer simulation for different induction heating and heat treating processes. In this paper treated with mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of induction heating furnaces with axisymmetric geometries for the numerical solution, we propose finite element methods combined with boundary (FEM) for the electromagnetic model using COMSOL® Multiphysics Software. Some numerical results for an industrial furnace are shown with high frequency.

Keywords: Numerical methods, Induction furnaces, Induction Heating, Finite element method, Comsol Multiphysics software.

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4227 Numerical Simulation of Plasma Actuator Using OpenFOAM

Authors: H. Yazdani, K. Ghorbanian

Abstract:

This paper deals with modeling and simulation of the plasma actuator with OpenFOAM. Plasma actuator is one of the newest devices in flow control techniques which can delay separation by inducing external momentum to the boundary layer of the flow. The effects of the plasma actuators on the external flow are incorporated into Navier-Stokes computations as a body force vector which is obtained as a product of the net charge density and the electric field. In order to compute this body force vector, the model solves two equations: One for the electric field due to the applied AC voltage at the electrodes and the other for the charge density representing the ionized air. The simulation result is compared to the experimental and typical values which confirms the validity of the modeling.

Keywords: Active flow control, flow field, OpenFOAM, plasma actuator.

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4226 Posture Recognition using Combined Statistical and Geometrical Feature Vectors based on SVM

Authors: Omer Rashid, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Axel Panning, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

It is hard to percept the interaction process with machines when visual information is not available. In this paper, we have addressed this issue to provide interaction through visual techniques. Posture recognition is done for American Sign Language to recognize static alphabets and numbers. 3D information is exploited to obtain segmentation of hands and face using normal Gaussian distribution and depth information. Features for posture recognition are computed using statistical and geometrical properties which are translation, rotation and scale invariant. Hu-Moment as statistical features and; circularity and rectangularity as geometrical features are incorporated to build the feature vectors. These feature vectors are used to train SVM for classification that recognizes static alphabets and numbers. For the alphabets, curvature analysis is carried out to reduce the misclassifications. The experimental results show that proposed system recognizes posture symbols by achieving recognition rate of 98.65% and 98.6% for ASL alphabets and numbers respectively.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Posture Recognition, Pattern Recognition, Application.

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4225 A File Splitting Technique for Reducing the Entropy of Text Files

Authors: Abdel-Rahman M. Jaradat, , Mansour I. Irshid, Talha T. Nassar

Abstract:

A novel file splitting technique for the reduction of the nth-order entropy of text files is proposed. The technique is based on mapping the original text file into a non-ASCII binary file using a new codeword assignment method and then the resulting binary file is split into several subfiles each contains one or more bits from each codeword of the mapped binary file. The statistical properties of the subfiles are studied and it is found that they reflect the statistical properties of the original text file which is not the case when the ASCII code is used as a mapper. The nth-order entropy of these subfiles are determined and it is found that the sum of their entropies is less than that of the original text file for the same values of extensions. These interesting statistical properties of the resulting subfiles can be used to achieve better compression ratios when conventional compression techniques are applied to these subfiles individually and on a bit-wise basis rather than on character-wise basis.

Keywords: Bit-wise compression, entropy, file splitting, source mapping.

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4224 A Study on the Cloud Simulation with a Network Topology Generator

Authors: Jun-Kwon Jung, Sung-Min Jung, Tae-Kyung Kim, Tai-Myoung Chung

Abstract:

CloudSim is a useful tool to simulate the cloud environment. It shows the service availability, the power consumption, and the network traffic of services on the cloud environment. Moreover, it supports to calculate a network communication delay through a network topology data easily. CloudSim allows inputting a file of topology data, but it does not provide any generating process. Thus, it needs the file of topology data generated from some other tools. The BRITE is typical network topology generator. Also, it supports various type of topology generating algorithms. If CloudSim can include the BRITE, network simulation for clouds is easier than existing version. This paper shows the potential of connection between BRITE and CloudSim. Also, it proposes the direction to link between them.

Keywords: Cloud, simulation, topology, BRITE, network.

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4223 Study of the Sloshing Phenomenon in a Tank Filled Partially with Liquid Using CFD Simulation

Authors: Amit Kumar, Jaikumar V., Pradeep A. G., Shivakumar Bhavi

Abstract:

Reducing sloshing is one of the major challenges in industries where transporting of liquid is involved. The present study investigates the sloshing effect for different liquid levels of 50% of the tank capacity. CFD simulation for two different baffle configurations has been carried out using a time-based multiphase Volume of fluid (VOF) scheme. Baffles were introduced to examine the sloshing effect inside the tank. Results were compared against the baseline case to assess the effectiveness of baffles; maximum liquid height over the period of the simulation was considered as the parameter for measuring the sloshing effect inside the tank. It was found that the addition of baffles reduced the sloshing effect inside the tank as compared to the baseline model.

Keywords: 3D effect of sloshing, multiphase volume of fluid, CFD, baffles

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4222 Investment Prediction Using Simulation

Authors: Hussam Al-Shorman, Yosef Hasan Jbara

Abstract:

A business case is a proposal for an investment initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the organization will use its resources in the best way by providing justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how simulation was used for business case benefits and return on investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of 8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.

Keywords: Investment cost, business case, return on investment, simulation.

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4221 Visualisation Techniques Connecting VRML and GENESIS Environments

Authors: Eduard Kuriščák, Jiří Chludil

Abstract:

We created the tool, which combines the powerful GENESIS (GEneral NEural SImulation System) simulation language with the up-to-date visualisation and internet techniques. Our solution resides in the connection between the simulation output from GENESIS, which is converted to the data-structure suitable for WWW browsers and VRML (Virtual Reality Modelling Language) viewers. The selected GENESIS simulations are once exported into the VRML code, and stored in our neurovisualisation portal (webserver). There, the loaded models, demonstrating mainly the spread of electrical signal (action potentials, postsynaptic potentials) along the neuronal membrane (axon, dendritic tree, neuron) could be displayed in the client-s VRML viewer, without interacting with original GENESIS environment. This enables the visualisation of basic neurophysiological phenomena designed for GENESIS simulator on the independent OS (operation system).

Keywords: GENESIS, neurosimulation, VRML, Java3D.

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4220 Integrated Simulation and Optimization for Carbon Capture and Storage System

Authors: Taekyoon Park, Seok Goo Lee, Sung Ho Kim, Ung Lee, Jong Min Lee, Chonghun Han

Abstract:

CO2 capture and storage/sequestration (CCS) is a key technology for addressing the global warming issue. This paper proposes an integrated model for the whole chain of CCS, from a power plant to a reservoir. The integrated model is further utilized to determine optimal operating conditions and study responses to various changes in input variables.

Keywords: CCS, Caron Dioxide, Carbon Capture and Storage, Simulation, Optimization.

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4219 Evolutionary Algorithm Based Centralized Congestion Management for Multilateral Transactions

Authors: T. Mathumathi, S. Ganesh, R. Gunabalan

Abstract:

This work presents an approach for AC load flow based centralized model for congestion management in the forward markets. In this model, transaction maximizes its profit under the limits of transmission line capacities allocated by Independent System Operator (ISO). The voltage and reactive power impact of the system are also incorporated in this model. Genetic algorithm is used to solve centralized congestion management problem for multilateral transactions. Results obtained for centralized model using genetic algorithm is compared with Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) technique. The statistical performances of various algorithms such as best, worst, mean and standard deviations of social welfare are given. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the better performance of genetic algorithm over SQP.

Keywords: Congestion management, Genetic algorithm, Sequential quadratic programming.

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4218 Experimental Performance and Numerical Simulation of Double Glass Wall

Authors: Thana Ananacha

Abstract:

This paper reports the numerical and experimental performances of Double Glass Wall are investigated. Two configurations were considered namely, the Double Clear Glass Wall (DCGW) and the Double Translucent Glass Wall (DTGW). The coupled governing equations as well as boundary conditions are solved using the finite element method (FEM) via COMSOLTM Multiphysics. Temperature profiles and flow field of the DCGW and DTGW are reported and discussed. Different constant heat fluxes were considered as 400 and 800 W.m-2 the corresponding initial condition temperatures were 30.5 and 38.5ºC respectively. The results show that the simulation results are in agreement with the experimental data. Conclusively, the model considered in this study could reasonable be used simulate the thermal and ventilation performance of the DCGW and DTGW configurations.

Keywords: Thermal simulation, Double Glass Wall, Velocity field.

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4217 A Simulation Modeling Approach for Optimization of Storage Space Allocation in Container Terminal

Authors: Gamal Abd El-Nasser A. Said, El-Sayed M. El-Horbaty

Abstract:

Container handling problems at container terminals are NP-hard problems. This paper presents an approach using discrete-event simulation modeling to optimize solution for storage space allocation problem, taking into account all various interrelated container terminal handling activities. The proposed approach is applied on a real case study data of container terminal at Alexandria port. The computational results show the effectiveness of the proposed model for optimization of storage space allocation in container terminal where 54% reduction in containers handling time in port is achieved.

Keywords: Container terminal, discrete-event simulation, optimization, storage space allocation.

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4216 Diagnosis of Inter Turn Fault in the Stator of Synchronous Generator Using Wavelet Based ANFIS

Authors: R. Rajeswari, N. Kamaraj

Abstract:

In this paper, Wavelet based ANFIS for finding inter turn fault of generator is proposed. The detector uniquely responds to the winding inter turn fault with remarkably high sensitivity. Discrimination of different percentage of winding affected by inter turn fault is provided via ANFIS having an Eight dimensional input vector. This input vector is obtained from features extracted from DWT of inter turn faulty current leaving the generator phase winding. Training data for ANFIS are generated via a simulation of generator with inter turn fault using MATLAB. The proposed algorithm using ANFIS is giving satisfied performance than ANN with selected statistical data of decomposed levels of faulty current.

Keywords: Winding InterTurn fault, ANN, ANFIS, and DWT.

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4215 Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak

Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

Abstract:

Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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4214 Earthquake Classification in Molluca Collision Zone Using Conventional Statistical Methods

Authors: H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Passaribu, N. T. Puspito, S. W. Indratno

Abstract:

Molluca Collision Zone is located at the junction of the Eurasian, Australian, Pacific and the Philippines plates. Between the Sangihe arc, west of the collision zone, and to the east of Halmahera arc is active collision and convex toward the Molluca Sea. This research will analyze the behavior of earthquake occurrence in Molluca Collision Zone related to the distributions of an earthquake in each partition regions, determining the type of distribution of a occurrence earthquake of partition regions, and the mean occurence of earthquakes each partition regions, and the correlation between the partitions region. We calculate number of earthquakes using partition method and its behavioral using conventional statistical methods. In this research, we used data of shallow earthquakes type and its magnitudes ≥4 SR (period 1964-2013). From the results, we can classify partitioned regions based on the correlation into two classes: strong and very strong. This classification can be used for early warning system in disaster management.

Keywords: Molluca Collision Zone, partition regions, conventional statistical methods, Earthquakes, classifications, disaster management.

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4213 Evaluation of Easy-to-Use Energy Building Design Tools for Solar Access Analysis in Urban Contexts: Comparison of Friendly Simulation Design Tools for Architectural Practice in the Early Design Stage

Authors: M. Iommi, G. Losco

Abstract:

Current building sector is focused on reduction of energy requirements, on renewable energy generation and on regeneration of existing urban areas. These targets need to be solved with a systemic approach, considering several aspects simultaneously such as climate conditions, lighting conditions, solar radiation, PV potential, etc. The solar access analysis is an already known method to analyze the solar potentials, but in current years, simulation tools have provided more effective opportunities to perform this type of analysis, in particular in the early design stage. Nowadays, the study of the solar access is related to the easiness of the use of simulation tools, in rapid and easy way, during the design process. This study presents a comparison of three simulation tools, from the point of view of the user, with the aim to highlight differences in the easy-to-use of these tools. Using a real urban context as case study, three tools; Ecotect, Townscope and Heliodon, are tested, performing models and simulations and examining the capabilities and output results of solar access analysis. The evaluation of the ease-to-use of these tools is based on some detected parameters and features, such as the types of simulation, requirements of input data, types of results, etc. As a result, a framework is provided in which features and capabilities of each tool are shown. This framework shows the differences among these tools about functions, features and capabilities. The aim of this study is to support users and to improve the integration of simulation tools for solar access with the design process.

Keywords: Solar access analysis, energy building design tools, urban planning, solar potential.

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