Search results for: statistical models

Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

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Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM_2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM_2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM_2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM2.5, fugitive, emission inventory.

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: Consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology.

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Authors: Yunus Doğan, Ahmet Durap

Abstract:

Coastal regions are the one of the most commonly used places by the natural balance and the growing population. In coastal engineering, the most valuable data is wave behaviors. The amount of this data becomes very big because of observations that take place for periods of hours, days and months. In this study, some statistical methods such as the wave spectrum analysis methods and the standard statistical methods have been used. The goal of this study is the discovery profiles of the different coast areas by using these statistical methods, and thus, obtaining an instance based data set from the big data to analysis by using data mining algorithms. In the experimental studies, the six sample data sets about the wave behaviors obtained by 20 minutes of observations from Mersin Bay in Turkey and converted to an instance based form, while different clustering techniques in data mining algorithms were used to discover similar coastal places. Moreover, this study discusses that this summarization approach can be used in other branches collecting big data such as medicine.

Keywords: Clustering algorithms, coastal engineering, data mining, data summarization, statistical methods.

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Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa

Abstract:

The applications of soundproof materials for reduction of high frequency automobile interior noise have been researched. This paper presents a sound pressure prediction technique including wind noise by Hybrid Statistical Energy Analysis (HSEA) in order to reduce weight of acoustic insulations. HSEA uses both analytical SEA and experimental SEA. As a result of chassis dynamo test and road test, the validity of SEA modeling was shown, and utility of the method was confirmed.

Keywords: Vibration, noise, car, statistical energy analysis.

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Authors: Pei-Ju Chao, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Wei-Luen Huang, Long-Chang Chen, Te-Jen Su, Wen-Ping Chen

Abstract:

The main goal in this paper is to quantify the quality of different techniques for radiation treatment plans, a back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN) combined with biomedicine theory was used to model thirteen dosimetric parameters and to calculate two dosimetric indices. The correlations between dosimetric indices and quality of life were extracted as the features and used in the ANN model to make decisions in the clinic. The simulation results show that a trained multilayer back-propagation neural network model can help a doctor accept or reject a plan efficiently. In addition, the models are flexible and whenever a new treatment technique enters the market, the feature variables simply need to be imported and the model re-trained for it to be ready for use.

Keywords: neural network, dosimetric index, radiation treatment, tumor

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Authors: Khalid Elasnaoui, Brahim Aksasse, Mohammed Ouanan

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In this paper, we are interested in the problem of finding similar images in a large database. For this purpose we propose a new algorithm based on a combination of the 2-D histogram intersection in the HSV space and statistical moments. The proposed histogram is based on a 3x3 window and not only on the intensity of the pixel. This approach overcome the drawback of the conventional 1-D histogram which is ignoring the spatial distribution of pixels in the image, while the statistical moments are used to escape the effects of the discretisation of the color space which is intrinsic to the use of histograms. We compare the performance of our new algorithm to various methods of the state of the art and we show that it has several advantages. It is fast, consumes little memory and requires no learning. To validate our results, we apply this algorithm to search for similar images in different image databases.

Keywords: 2-D histogram, Statistical moments, Indexing, Similarity distance, Histograms intersection.

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Authors: Nang Thwe Thwe Oo

Abstract:

Traditional object segmentation methods are time consuming and computationally difficult. In this paper, onedimensional object detection along the secant lines is applied. Statistical features of texture images are computed for the recognition process. Example matrices of these features and formulae for calculation of similarities between two feature patterns are expressed. And experiments are also carried out using these features.

Keywords: 1-D object segmentation, secant lines, objectoccurrence(frequency) matrix, contiguity matrix, statistical features.

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Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

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The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology.

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Authors: Neerja Bhatnagar, Benjoe A. Juliano, Renee S. Renner

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This paper presents data annotation models at five levels of granularity (database, relation, column, tuple, and cell) of relational data to address the problem of unsuitability of most relational databases to express annotations. These models do not require any structural and schematic changes to the underlying database. These models are also flexible, extensible, customizable, database-neutral, and platform-independent. This paper also presents an SQL-like query language, named Annotation Query Language (AnQL), to query annotation documents. AnQL is simple to understand and exploits the already-existent wide knowledge and skill set of SQL.

Keywords: annotation query language, data annotations, data annotation models, semantic data annotations

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.

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Authors: Joval P George, Dr. Zheng Chen, Philip Shaw

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Hotelling-s T2 Chart, using data collected from a drinking water treatment process. PCA is applied primarily for the dimensional reduction of the collected data. The Hotelling-s T2 control chart was used for the fault detection of the process. The data was taken from a United Utilities Multistage Water Treatment Works downloaded from an Integrated Program Management (IPM) dashboard system. The analysis of the results show that Multivariate Statistical Process Control (MSPC) techniques such as PCA, and control charts such as Hotelling-s T2, can be effectively applied for the early fault detection of continuous multivariable processes such as Drinking Water Treatment. The software package SIMCA-P was used to develop the MSPC models and Hotelling-s T2 Chart from the collected data.

Keywords: Principal component analysis, hotelling's t2 chart, multivariate statistical process control, drinking water treatment.

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Osman, Mohd Aizaini Maarof, Mohd Foad Rohani

Abstract:

Human skin detection recognized as the primary step in most of the applications such as face detection, illicit image filtering, hand recognition and video surveillance. The performance of any skin detection applications greatly relies on the two components: feature extraction and classification method. Skin color is the most vital information used for skin detection purpose. However, color feature alone sometimes could not handle images with having same color distribution with skin color. A color feature of pixel-based does not eliminate the skin-like color due to the intensity of skin and skin-like color fall under the same distribution. Hence, the statistical color analysis will be exploited such mean and standard deviation as an additional feature to increase the reliability of skin detector. In this paper, we studied the effectiveness of statistical color feature for human skin detection. Furthermore, the paper analyzed the integrated color and texture using eight classifiers with three color spaces of RGB, YCbCr, and HSV. The experimental results show that the integrating statistical feature using Random Forest classifier achieved a significant performance with an F1-score 0.969.

Keywords: Color space, neural network, random forest, skin detection, statistical feature.

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Authors: Sheena Christabel Pravin, M. Palanivelan

Abstract:

Speech disfluencies are common in spontaneous speech. The primary purpose of this study was to distinguish linguistic disfluencies from stuttering disfluencies in bilingual Tamil–English (TE) speaking children. The secondary purpose was to determine whether their disfluencies are mediated by native language dominance and/or on an early onset of developmental stuttering at childhood. A detailed study was carried out to identify the prosodic and acoustic features that uniquely represent the disfluent regions of speech. This paper focuses on statistical modeling of repetitions, prolongations, pauses and interjections in the speech corpus encompassing bilingual spontaneous utterances from school going children – English and Tamil. Two classifiers including Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), which is a class of feed-forward artificial neural network, were compared in the classification of disfluencies. The results of the classifiers document the patterns of disfluency in spontaneous speech samples of school-aged children to distinguish between Children Who Stutter (CWS) and Children with Language Impairment CLI). The ability of the models in classifying the disfluencies was measured in terms of F-measure, Recall, and Precision.

Keywords: Bilingual, children who stutter, children with language impairment, Hidden Markov Models, multi-layer perceptron, linguistic disfluencies, stuttering disfluencies.

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: Dursun Aydin

Abstract:

This paper study about using of nonparametric models for Gross National Product data in Turkey and Stanford heart transplant data. It is discussed two nonparametric techniques called smoothing spline and kernel regression. The main goal is to compare the techniques used for prediction of the nonparametric regression models. According to the results of numerical studies, it is concluded that smoothing spline regression estimators are better than those of the kernel regression.

Keywords: Kernel regression, Nonparametric models, Prediction, Smoothing spline.

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Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

Abstract:

The aim of this article is to assess the existing business models used by the banks operating in the CEE countries in the time period from 2006 till 2011. In order to obtain research results, the authors performed qualitative analysis of the scientific literature on bank business models, which have been grouped into clusters that consist of such components as: 1) capital and reserves; 2) assets; 3) deposits, and 4) loans. In their turn, bank business models have been developed based on the types of core activities of the banks, and have been divided into four groups: Wholesale, Investment, Retail and Universal Banks. Descriptive statistics have been used to analyse the models, determining mean, minimal and maximal values of constituent cluster components, as well as standard deviation. The analysis of the data is based on such bank variable indices as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE).

Keywords: Banks, Business model, CEE, ROA, ROE.

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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Many quality models have been used to measure egovernment portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: E-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126.

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

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This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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Authors: Mohammad Seifi, Azura Bt. Che Soh, Noor Izzrib. Abd. Wahab, Mohd Khair B. Hassan

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Solar energy has a major role in renewable energy resources. Solar Cell as a basement of solar system has attracted lots of research. To conduct a study about solar energy system, an authenticated model is required. Diode base PV models are widely used by researchers. These models are classified based on the number of diodes used in them. Single and two-diode models are well studied. Single-diode models may have two, three or four elements. In this study, these solar cell models are examined and the simulation results are compared to each other. All PV models are re-designed in the Matlab/Simulink software and they examined by certain test conditions and parameters. This paper provides comparative studies of these models and it tries to compare the simulation results with manufacturer-s data sheet to investigate model validity and accuracy. The results show a four- element single-diode model is accurate and has moderate complexity in contrast to the two-diode model with higher complexity and accuracy

Keywords: Fill Factor (FF), Matlab/Simulink, Maximum PowerPoint (MPP), Maximum Power Point Tracker (MPPT), Photo Voltaic(PV), Solar cell, Standard Test Condition (STC).

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Authors: Alexander Efremov

Abstract:

A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.

Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.

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Authors: Pham Luu Trung Duong, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

To increase precision and reliability of automatic control systems, we have to take into account of random factors affecting the control system. Thus, operational matrix technique is used for statistical analysis of first order plus time delay system with uniform random parameter. Examples with deterministic and stochastic disturbance are considered to demonstrate the validity of the method. Comparison with Monte Carlo method is made to show the computational effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: First order plus dead-time, Operational matrix, Statistical analysis, Walsh function.

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Authors: Alcínia Z. Sampaio, Pedro G. Henriques

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Three-dimensional geometric models have been used to present architectural and engineering works, showing their final configuration. When the clarification of a detail or the constitution of a construction step in needed, these models are not appropriate. They do not allow the observation of the construction progress of a building. Models that could present dynamically changes of the building geometry are a good support to the elaboration of projects. Techniques of geometric modeling and virtual reality were used to obtain models that could visually simulate the construction activity. The applications explain the construction work of a cavity wall and a bridge. These models allow the visualization of the physical progression of the work following a planned construction sequence, the observation of details of the form of every component of the works and support the study of the type and method of operation of the equipment applied in the construction. These models presented distinct advantage as educational aids in first-degree courses in Civil Engineering. The use of Virtual Reality techniques in the development of educational applications brings new perspectives to the teaching of subjects related to the field of civil construction.

Keywords: Education, Engineering, virtual reality, visualsimulation.

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Authors: Megha Gupta, Nupur Prakash

Abstract:

Identification of plant diseases has been performed using machine learning and deep learning models on the datasets containing images of healthy and diseased plant leaves. The current study carries out an evaluation of some of the deep learning models based on convolutional neural network architectures for identification of plant diseases. For this purpose, the publicly available New Plant Diseases Dataset, an augmented version of PlantVillage dataset, available on Kaggle platform, containing 87,900 images has been used. The dataset contained images of 26 diseases of 14 different plants and images of 12 healthy plants. The CNN models selected for the study presented in this paper are AlexNet, ZFNet, VGGNet (four models), GoogLeNet, and ResNet (three models). The selected models are trained using PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, on Google Colaboratory. A comparative study has been carried out to analyze the high degree of accuracy achieved using these models. The highest test accuracy and F1-score of 99.59% and 0.996, respectively, were achieved by using GoogLeNet with Mini-batch momentum based gradient descent learning algorithm.

Keywords: comparative analysis, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, plant disease identification

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Authors: A. Ippolito, C. Bartolomei

Abstract:

A growing demand is felt today for realistic 3D models enabling the cognition and popularization of historical-artistic heritage. Evaluation and preservation of Cultural Heritage is inextricably connected with the innovative processes of gaining, managing, and using knowledge. The development and perfecting of techniques for acquiring and elaborating photorealistic 3D models, made them pivotal elements for popularizing information of objects on the scale of architectonic structures.

Keywords: Cultural heritage, databases, non-contact survey, 2D- 3D models.

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Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Ya-Fen Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.

Keywords: Slope failure, landslide, volume, model, rainfall thresholds.

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Authors: Farzin Salmasi

Abstract:

Energy dissipation in drops has been investigated by physical models. After determination of effective parameters on the phenomenon, three drops with different heights have been constructed from Plexiglas. They have been installed in two existing flumes in the hydraulic laboratory. Several runs of physical models have been undertaken to measured required parameters for determination of the energy dissipation. Results showed that the energy dissipation in drops depend on the drop height and discharge. Predicted relative energy dissipations varied from 10.0% to 94.3%. This work has also indicated that the energy loss at drop is mainly due to the mixing of the jet with the pool behind the jet that causes air bubble entrainment in the flow. Statistical model has been developed to predict the energy dissipation in vertical drops denotes nonlinear correlation between effective parameters. Further an artificial neural networks (ANNs) approach was used in this paper to develop an explicit procedure for calculating energy loss at drops using NeuroSolutions. Trained network was able to predict the response with R2 and RMSE 0.977 and 0.0085 respectively. The performance of ANN was found effective when compared to regression equations in predicting the energy loss.

Keywords: Air bubble, drop, energy loss, hydraulic jump, NeuroSolutions

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Authors: Samy M. El-Behery, Mofreh H. Hamed

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This paper presents a computational study of the separated flow in a planer asymmetric diffuser. The steady RANS equations for turbulent incompressible fluid flow and six turbulence closures are used in the present study. The commercial software code, FLUENT 6.3.26, was used for solving the set of governing equations using various turbulence models. Five of the used turbulence models are available directly in the code while the v2-f turbulence model was implemented via User Defined Scalars (UDS) and User Defined Functions (UDF). A series of computational analysis is performed to assess the performance of turbulence models at different grid density. The results show that the standard k-ω, SST k-ω and v2-f models clearly performed better than other models when an adverse pressure gradient was present. The RSM model shows an acceptable agreement with the velocity and turbulent kinetic energy profiles but it failed to predict the location of separation and attachment points. The standard k-ε and the low-Re k- ε delivered very poor results.

Keywords: Turbulence models, turbulent flow, wall functions, separation, reattachment, diffuser.

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