Search results for: solar cycle prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2092

Search results for: solar cycle prediction

1912 A Theoretical Model for a Humidification Dehumidification (HD) Solar Desalination Unit

Authors: Yasser Elhenawy, M. Abd Elkader, Gamal H. Moustafa

Abstract:

A theoretical study of a humidification dehumidification solar desalination unit has been carried out to increase understanding the effect of weather conditions on the unit productivity. A humidification-dehumidification (HD) solar desalination unit has been designed to provide fresh water for population in remote arid areas. It consists of solar water collector and air collector; to provide the hot water and air to the desalination chamber. The desalination chamber is divided into humidification and dehumidification towers. The circulation of air between the two towers is maintained by the forced convection. A mathematical model has been formulated, in which the thermodynamic relations were used to study the flow, heat and mass transfer inside the humidifier and dehumidifier. The present technique is performed in order to increase the unit performance. Heat and mass balance has been done and a set of governing equations has been solved using the finite difference technique. The unit productivity has been calculated along the working day during the summer and winter sessions and has compared with the available experimental results. The average accumulative productivity of the system in winter has been ranged between 2.5 to 4 (kg/m2)/day, while the average summer productivity has been found between 8 to 12 (kg/m2)/day.

Keywords: Finite difference, Dehumidification, Humidification, Solar desalination, Solar collector, Simulation, Water productivity.

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1911 Enhancement of Thermal Performance of Latent Heat Solar Storage System

Authors: Rishindra M. Sarviya, Ashish Agrawal

Abstract:

Solar energy is available abundantly in the world, but it is not continuous and its intensity also varies with time. Due to above reason the acceptability and reliability of solar based thermal system is lower than conventional systems. A properly designed heat storage system increases the reliability of solar thermal systems by bridging the gap between the energy demand and availability. In the present work, two dimensional numerical simulation of the melting of heat storage material is presented in the horizontal annulus of double pipe latent heat storage system. Longitudinal fins were used as a thermal conductivity enhancement. Paraffin wax was used as a heat-storage or phase change material (PCM). Constant wall temperature is applied to heat transfer tube. Presented two-dimensional numerical analysis shows the movement of melting front in the finned cylindrical annulus for analyzing the thermal behavior of the system during melting.

Keywords: Latent heat, numerical study, phase change material, solar energy.

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1910 Development of Solar Poly House Tunnel Dryer (STD) for Medicinal Plants

Authors: N. C. Shahi, Anupama Singh, A. E. Kate

Abstract:

There was a scenario present day that drying of fresh fruits and vegetables by indirect solar drying by using mechanical device; hence, an effort was made to develop a small scale solar tunnel dryer (STD). Drying of spinach is carried out to analyze the performance of the dryer and to study its drying characteristics. To evaluate the performance of dryer the independent variables were selected as air flow rate, loading density and shade net while collector efficiency, drying efficiency, overall efficiency and specific energy consumption were selected as responses during performing the experiments. The spinach was dried from initial moisture content 88.21-94.04% (w.b.) to final moisture content 3.50-5.13% (w.b.). The drying time considerably reduced as compared to open sun drying of spinach as sun drying took 15 h for drying. The average collector efficiency, drying efficiency and overall efficiency were in the range 28.73-61.15%, 11.63% to 22.13%, and 7.61-14.66%, respectively.

Keywords: Solar dryer, collector efficiency, drying efficiency, spinach.

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1909 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Chevron Rubber Spring for Railway Vehicle

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.

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1908 Using Probe Person Data for Travel Mode Detection

Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

Abstract:

Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: Accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, Mode Prediction, Support vector Machine.

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1907 Performance Analysis of Evolutionary ANN for Output Prediction of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System

Authors: S.I Sulaiman, T.K Abdul Rahman, I. Musirin, S. Shaari

Abstract:

This paper presents performance analysis of the Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN) based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Correlation coefficient (R), Evolutionary programming-ANN (EPANN), Photovoltaic (PV), logarithmic sigmoid and tangent sigmoid.

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1906 Reasons for Non-Applicability of Software Entropy Metrics for Bug Prediction in Android

Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

Abstract:

Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: Android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, Software Entropy.

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1905 Thermodynamic Cycle Analysis for Overall Efficiency Improvement and Temperature Reduction in Gas Turbines

Authors: Jeni A. Popescu, Ionut Porumbel, Valeriu A. Vilag, Cleopatra F. Cuciumita

Abstract:

The paper presents a thermodynamic cycle analysis for three turboshaft engines. The first cycle is a Brayton cycle, describing the evolution of a classical turboshaft, based on the Klimov TV2 engine. The other four cycles aim at approaching an Ericsson cycle, by replacing the Brayton cycle adiabatic expansion in the turbine by quasi-isothermal expansion. The maximum quasi- Ericsson cycles temperature is set to a lower value than the maximum Brayton cycle temperature, equal to the Brayton cycle power turbine inlet temperature, in order to decrease the engine NOx emissions. Also, the power/expansion ratio distribution over the stages of the gas generator turbine is maintained the same. In two of the considered quasi-Ericsson cycles, the efficiencies of the gas generator turbine, as well as the power/expansion ratio distribution over the stages of the gas generator turbine are maintained the same as for the reference case, while for the other two cases, the efficiencies are increased in order to obtain the same shaft power as in the reference case. For the two cases respecting the first condition, both the shaft power and the thermodynamic efficiency of the engine decrease, while for the other two, the power and efficiency are maintained, as a result of assuming new, more efficient gas generator turbines.

Keywords: Combustion, Ericsson, thermodynamic analysis, turbine.

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1904 Comparative Analysis between Different Proposed Responsive Façade Designs for Reducing the Solar Radiation on the West Façade in the Hot Arid Region

Authors: Merna H. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Designing buildings which are sustainable and can control and reduce the solar radiation penetrated from the building facades is such an architectural turn. One of the most important methods of saving energy in a building is carefully designing its facade. Building’s facade is one of the most significant contributors to the energy budget as well as the comfort parameters of a building. Responsive architecture adapts to the surrounding environment causing alteration in the envelope configuration to perform in a more effectively way. One of the objectives of the responsive facades is to protect the building’s users from the external environment and achieving comfortable indoor environment. Solar radiation is one of the aspects that affects the comfortable indoor environment, as well as affects the energy consumption consumed by the HVAC systems for maintaining the indoor comfortable conditions. The aim of the paper is introducing and comparing between four different proposed responsive façade designs in terms of solar radiation reduction on the west façade of a building located in the hot arid region. In addition, the paper highlights the reducing amount of the solar radiation for each proposed responsive facades on the west façade. At the end of the paper, a proposal is introduced which combines the four different axis of movements which reduces the solar radiation the most. Moreover, the paper highlights the definition and aim of the responsive architecture, as well as the focusing on the solar radiation aspect in the hot arid zones. Besides, the paper analyzes an international responsive façade building in Essen, Germany, focusing on the type of responsive facades, angle of rotation, mechanism of movement and the effect of the responsive facades on the building’s performance.

Keywords: kinetic facades, mechanism of movement, responsive architecture, solar radiation

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1903 Investigation of Main Operating Parameters Affecting Gas Turbine Efficiency and Gas Releases

Authors: Farhat Hajer, Khir Tahar, Ammar Ben Brahim

Abstract:

This work presents a study on the influence of the main operating variables on the gas turbine cycle. A numerical simulation of a gas turbine cycle is performed for a real net power of 100 MW. A calculation code is developed using EES software. The operating variables are taken in conformity with the local environmental conditions adopted by the Tunisian Society of Electricity and Gas. Results show that the increase of ambient temperature leads to an increase of Tpz and NOx emissions rate and a decrease of cycle efficiency and UHC emissions. The CO emissions decrease with the raise of residence time, while NOx emissions rate increases and UHC emissions rate decreases. Furthermore, both of cycle efficiency and NOx emissions increase with the increase of the pressure ratio.

Keywords: CO, efficiency, gas turbine, NOx, UHC.

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1902 Morphology Study of Inverted Planar Heterojunction Perovskite Solar Cells in Sequential Deposition

Authors: Asmat Nawaz, Ali Koray Erdinc, Burak Gultekin, Muhammad Tayyib, Ceylan Zafer, Kaiying Wang, M. Nadeem Akram

Abstract:

In this study, a sequential deposition process is used for the fabrication of PEDOT: PSS based inverted planar perovskite solar cell. A small amount of additive deionized water (DI-H2O) was added into PbI2 + Dimethyl formamide (DMF) precursor solution in order to increase the solubility of PbI2 in DMF, and finally to manipulate the surface morphology of the perovskite films. A morphology transition from needle like structure to hexagonal plates, and then needle-like again has been observed as the DI-H2O was added continuously (0.0 wt% to 3.0wt%). The latter one leads to full surface coverage of the perovskite, which is essential for high performance solar cell.

Keywords: Charge carrier diffusion lengths, methylamonium lead iodide, precursor composition, perovskite solar cell, sequential deposition.

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1901 Synthesis and Evaluation of Photovoltaic Properties of an Organic Dye for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

Authors: M. Hosseinnejad, K. Gharanjig

Abstract:

In the present study, metal free organic dyes were prepared and used as photo-sensitizers in dye-sensitized solar cells. Double rhodanine was utilized as the fundamental electron acceptor group to which electron donor aldehyde with varying substituents was attached to produce new organic dye. This dye was first purified and then characterized by analytical techniques. Spectrophotometric evaluations of the prepared dye in solution and on a nano anatase TiO2 substrate were carried out in order to assess possible changes in the status of the dyes in different environments. The results show that the dye form j-type aggregates on the nano TiO2. Additionally, oxidation potential measurements were also carried out. Finally, dye sensitized solar cell based on synthesized dye was fabricated in order to determine the photovoltaic behavior and conversion efficiency of individual dye.

Keywords: Conversion efficiency, dye-sensitized solar cell, photovoltaic behavior, sensitizer.

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1900 An Experimental Study on Evacuated Tube Solar Collector for Heating of Air in India

Authors: Avadhesh Yadav, V.K. Bajpai

Abstract:

A solar powered air heating system using one ended evacuated tubes is experimentally investigated. A solar air heater containing forty evacuated tubes is used for heating purpose. The collector surface area is about 4.44 m2. The length and outer diameters of the outer glass tube and absorber tube are 1500, 47 and 37 mm, respectively. In this experimental setup, we have a header (heat exchanger) of square shape (190 mm x 190 mm). The length of header is 1500 mm. The header consists of a hollow pipe in the center whose diameter is 60 mm through which the air is made to flow. The experimental setup contains approximately 108 liters of water. Water is working as heat collecting medium which collects the solar heat falling on the tubes. This heat is delivered to the air flowing through the header pipe. This heat flow is due to natural convection and conduction. The outlet air temperature depends upon several factors along with air flow rate and solar radiation intensity. The study has been done for both up-flow and down-flow of air in header in similar weather conditions, at different flow rates. In the present investigations the study has been made to find the effect of intensity of solar radiations and flow rate of air on the out let temperature of the air with time and which flow is more efficient. The obtained results show that the system is highly effective for the heating in this region. Moreover, it has been observed that system is highly efficient for the particular flow rate of air. It was also observed that downflow configuration is more effective than up-flow condition at all flow rates due to lesser losses in down-flow. The results show that temperature differences of upper head and lower head, both of water and surface of pipes on the respective ends is lower in down-flow.

Keywords: air flow direction, Evacuated tube solar collector, solar air heating, solar thermal utilization.

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1899 A Low Cost and High Quality Duty-Cycle Modulation Scheme and Applications

Authors: B. Lonla Moffo, J. Mbihi, L. Nneme Nneme

Abstract:

In this paper, a low cost duty-cycle modulation scheme is studied in depth and compared to the standard pulse width modulation technique. Using a mix of analytical reasoning and electronics simulation tools, it is shown that under the same operating conditions, most characteristics of the proposed duty-cycle modulation scheme are better than those provided by a standard pulse width modulation technique. The simulation results obtained when testing both modulation control policies on prototyping systems, indicate that the proposed duty-cycle modulation approach, appears to be a high quality control policy in a wide variety of application areas, including A/D and D/A conversion, signal transmission and switching control in power electronics.

Keywords: Duty-cycle Modulation, Operational amplifiers, Pulse width modulation, Power electronics, Signal processing.

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1898 Parameters Estimation of Double Diode Solar Cell Model

Authors: M. R. AlRashidi, K. M. El-Naggar, M. F. AlHajri

Abstract:

A new technique based on Pattern search optimization is proposed for estimating different solar cell parameters in this paper. The estimated parameters are the generated photocurrent, saturation current, series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor. The proposed approach is tested and validated using double diode model to show its potential. Performance of the developed approach is quite interesting which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

Keywords: Solar Cell, Parameter Estimation, Pattern Search.

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1897 Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar

Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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1896 Thermodynamic Performance of a Combined Power and Ejector Refrigeration Cycle

Authors: Hyung Jong Ko, Kyoung Hoon Kim

Abstract:

In this study thermodynamic performance analysis of a combined organic Rankine cycle and ejector refrigeration cycle is carried out for use of low-grade heat source in the form of sensible energy. Special attention is paid to the effects of system parameters including the turbine inlet temperature and turbine inlet pressure on the characteristics of the system such as ratios of mass flow rate, net work production, and refrigeration capacity as well as the coefficient of performance and exergy efficiency of the system. Results show that for a given source the coefficient of performance increases with increasing of the turbine inlet pressure. However, the exergy efficiency has an optimal condition with respect to the turbine inlet pressure.

Keywords: Coefficient of performance, ejector refrigeration cycle, exergy efficiency, low-grade energy, organic rankine cycle.

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1895 Effective Security Method for Wireless LAN using Life-Cycle of Wireless Access Point

Authors: Soon-Tai Park, Haeryong Park, Myoung-sun Noh, Yoo-Jae Won

Abstract:

There are many expand of Wi-Fi zones provided mobile careers and usage of wireless access point at home as increase of usage of wireless internet caused by the use of smart phone. This paper shows wireless local area network status, security threats of WLAN and functionality of major wireless access point in Korea. We propose security countermeasures concerned with life cycle of access point from manufacturing to installation, using and finally disposal. There needed to releasing with configured secure at access point. Because, it is most cost effective resolution than stage of installation or other life cycle of access point.

Keywords: Wireless LAN Security, Wi-Fi Security, Wireless Access Point, Product Life-Cycle

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1894 Protein Residue Contact Prediction using Support Vector Machine

Authors: Chan Weng Howe, Mohd Saberi Mohamad

Abstract:

Protein residue contact map is a compact representation of secondary structure of protein. Due to the information hold in the contact map, attentions from researchers in related field were drawn and plenty of works have been done throughout the past decade. Artificial intelligence approaches have been widely adapted in related works such as neural networks, genetic programming, and Hidden Markov model as well as support vector machine. However, the performance of the prediction was not generalized which probably depends on the data used to train and generate the prediction model. This situation shown the importance of the features or information used in affecting the prediction performance. In this research, support vector machine was used to predict protein residue contact map on different combination of features in order to show and analyze the effectiveness of the features.

Keywords: contact map, protein residue contact, support vector machine, protein structure prediction

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1893 Characterization of Pure Nickel Coatings Fabricated under Pulse Current Conditions

Authors: M. Sajjadnejad, H. Omidvar, M. Javanbakht, A. Mozafari

Abstract:

Pure nickel coatings have been successfully electrodeposited on copper substrates by the pulse plating technique. The influence of current density, duty cycle and pulse frequency on the surface morphology, crystal orientation, and microhardness was determined. It was found that the crystallite size of the deposit increases with increasing current density and duty cycle. The crystal orientation progressively changed from a random texture at 1 A/dm2 to (200) texture at 10 A/dm2. Increasing pulse frequency resulted in increased texture coefficient and peak intensity of (111) reflection. An increase in duty cycle resulted in considerable increase in texture coefficient and peak intensity of (311) reflection. Coatings obtained at high current densities and duty cycle present a mixed morphology of small and large grains. Maximum microhardness of 193 Hv was achieved at 4 A/dm2, 10 Hz and duty cycle of 50%. Nickel coatings with (200) texture are ductile while (111) texture improves the microhardness of the coatings.

Keywords: Current density, Duty cycle, Microstructure, Nickel, Pulse frequency.

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1892 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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1891 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network

Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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1890 Numerical Simulation of a Solar Photovoltaic Panel Cooled by a Forced Air System

Authors: D. Nebbali, R. Nebbali, A. Ouibrahim

Abstract:

This study focuses on the cooling of a photovoltaic panel (PV). Indeed, the cooling improves the conversion capacity of this one and maintains, under extreme conditions of air temperature, the panel temperature at an appreciable level which avoids the altering. To do this, a fan provides forced circulation of air. Because the fan is supplied by the panel, it is necessary to determine the optimum operating point that unites efficiency of the PV with the consumption of the fan. For this matter, numerical simulations are performed at varying mass flow rates of air, under two extreme air temperatures (50°C, 25°C) and a fixed solar radiation (1000W.m2) in a case of no wind.

Keywords: Energy conversion, efficiency, balance energy, solar cell.

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1889 Assessing the Effect of Thermodynamic, Hydrodynamic and Geometric of an Air Cooled Condenser on COP of Vapor Compression Cycle

Authors: Hosein Shokohmand, Mahmood Hosein Zare, Abdorreza Qolibeik

Abstract:

In this paper, the effects of thermodynamic, hydrodynamic and geometric of an air cooled condenser on COP of vapor compression cycle are investigated for a fixed condenser facing surface area. The system is utilized with a scroll compressor, modeled based on thermodynamic and heat transfer equations employing Matlab software. The working refrigerant is R134a whose thermodynamic properties are called from Engineering Equation Software. This simulation shows that vapor compression cycle can be designed by different configurations and COPs, economical and optimum working condition can be obtained via considering these parameters.

Keywords: Vapor compression cycle, air cooled condenser, COP, heat exchanger, thermal modeling.

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1888 Connected Objects with Optical Rectenna for Wireless Information Systems

Authors: Chayma Bahar, Chokri Baccouch, Hedi Sakli, Nizar Sakli

Abstract:

Harvesting and transport of optical and radiofrequency signals are a topical subject with multiple challenges. In this paper, we present a Optical RECTENNA system. We propose here a hybrid system solar cell antenna for 5G mobile communications networks. Thus, we propose rectifying circuit. A parametric study is done to follow the influence of load resistance and input power on Optical RECTENNA system performance. Thus, we propose a solar cell antenna structure in the frequency band of future 5G standard in 2.45 GHz bands.

Keywords: Antenna, Rectenna, solar cell, 5G, optical RECTENNA.

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1887 Prediction on Housing Price Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

Abstract:

In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.

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1886 Crude Oil Price Prediction Using LSTM Networks

Authors: Varun Gupta, Ankit Pandey

Abstract:

Crude oil market is an immensely complex and dynamic environment and thus the task of predicting changes in such an environment becomes challenging with regards to its accuracy. A number of approaches have been adopted to take on that challenge and machine learning has been at the core in many of them. There are plenty of examples of algorithms based on machine learning yielding satisfactory results for such type of prediction. In this paper, we have tried to predict crude oil prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks. We have tried to experiment with different types of models using different epochs, lookbacks and other tuning methods. The results obtained are promising and presented a reasonably accurate prediction for the price of crude oil in near future.

Keywords: Crude oil price prediction, deep learning, LSTM, recurrent neural networks.

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1885 The Hybrid Dimming Control System for Solar Charging Robot

Authors: A. Won-Yong Chae, B. Hyung-Nam Kim, C. Kyoung-Jun Lee, D. Hee-Je Kim

Abstract:

The renewable energy has been attracting attention as a new alternative energy due to the problem of environmental pollution and resource depletion. In particular, daylighting and PV system are regarded as the solutions. In this paper, the hybrid dimming control system supplied by solar cell and daylighting system was designed. Daylighting system is main source and PV system is spare source. PV system operates the LED lamp which supports daylighting system because daylighting system is unstable due to the variation of irradiance. In addition, PV system has a role charging batteries. Battery charging has a benefit that PV system operate LED lamp in the bad weather. However, LED lamp always can`t turn on that-s why dimming control system was designed. In particular, the solar charging robot was designed to check the interior irradiance intensity. These systems and the application of the solar charging robot are expected to contribute developing alternative energy in the near future.

Keywords: Daylighting system, PV system, LED lamp, Suntracking robot.

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1884 Neighbors of Indefinite Binary Quadratic Forms

Authors: Ahmet Tekcan

Abstract:

In this paper, we derive some algebraic identities on right and left neighbors R(F) and L(F) of an indefinite binary quadratic form F = F(x, y) = ax2 + bxy + cy2 of discriminant Δ = b2 -4ac. We prove that the proper cycle of F can be given by using its consecutive left neighbors. Also we construct a connection between right and left neighbors of F.

Keywords: Quadratic form, indefinite form, cycle, proper cycle, right neighbor, left neighbor.

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1883 A New Hybrid Model with Passive Congregation for Stock Market Indices Prediction

Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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