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Performance Analysis of Evolutionary ANN for Output Prediction of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System

Authors: I. Musirin, S.I Sulaiman, T.K Abdul Rahman, S. Shaari


This paper presents performance analysis of the Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN) based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].

Keywords: photovoltaic (PV), artificial neural network (ANN), Correlation coefficient (R), Evolutionary programming-ANN (EPANN), logarithmic sigmoid and tangent sigmoid

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