Crude Oil Price Prediction Using LSTM Networks
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 32804
Crude Oil Price Prediction Using LSTM Networks

Authors: Varun Gupta, Ankit Pandey

Abstract:

Crude oil market is an immensely complex and dynamic environment and thus the task of predicting changes in such an environment becomes challenging with regards to its accuracy. A number of approaches have been adopted to take on that challenge and machine learning has been at the core in many of them. There are plenty of examples of algorithms based on machine learning yielding satisfactory results for such type of prediction. In this paper, we have tried to predict crude oil prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks. We have tried to experiment with different types of models using different epochs, lookbacks and other tuning methods. The results obtained are promising and presented a reasonably accurate prediction for the price of crude oil in near future.

Keywords: Crude oil price prediction, deep learning, LSTM, recurrent neural networks.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1316680

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3632

References:


[1] Mohammad Reza Mahdiani and Ehsan Khamehchi, “A modified neural network model for predicting the crude oil price”, Intellectual Economics, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 71-77, Aug. 2016.
[2] Manel Hamdi and Chaker Aloui, "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 1339-1359, 2015.
[3] Yu Runfang, Du Jiangze and Liu Xiaotao, “Improved Forecast Ability of Oil Market Volatility Based on combined Markov Switching and GARCH-class Model, Procedia Computer Science, vol. 122, pp. 415-422, 2017.
[4] K. Greff, R. K. Srivastava, J. Koutník, B. R. Steunebrink and J. Schmidhuber, "LSTM: A Search Space Odyssey," IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems, vol. 28, no. 10, pp. 2222-2232, Oct. 2017.
[5] S. Hochreiter and J. Schmidhuber, “Long short-term memory,” Neural Comput., vol. 9, no. 8, pp. 1735–1780, Nov. 1997.
[6] Colah’s Blog: Understanding LSTM Networks. Accessed from http://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs
[7] S. Moshiri, and F. Foroutan, “Forecasting nonlinear crude oil futures prices,” The Energy Journal vol. 27, pp. 81-95, 2005.
[8] Siddhi Vinayak Kulkarni and Imad Haidar, Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security, vol. 2, no.1, June 2009.
[9] Manel Hamdi and Chaker Aloui, “Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey”, Economics Bulletin, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 1339-1359, 2015.
[10] S. N. Abdullah and X. Zeng, "Machine learning approach for crude oil price prediction with Artificial Neural Networks-Quantitative (ANN-Q) model," The 2010 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), Barcelona, pp. 1-8, 2010.
[11] Yanhui Chen, Kaijian Heb, and Geoffrey K.F. Tso, “Forecasting Crude Oil Prices: a Deep Learning based Model”, Procedia Computer Science, vol. 122, pp. 300-307, 2017.
[12] Ilya Sutskever, Oriol Vinyals, and Quok V Le. “Sequence to sequence learning with neural networks. Advances in neural information processing systems, pp. 3104–3112, 2014.
[13] Ji Young Lee and Franck Dernoncourt. Sequential short-text classification with recurrent and convolutional neural networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1603.03827 (2016).
[14] Y. Cheng, C. Xu, D. Mashima, V.L.L. Thing, and Y. Wu, “Power LSTM: Power Demand Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network.”, In: Cong G., Peng WC., Zhang W., Li C., Sun A. (eds) Advanced Data Mining and Applications. ADMA 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 10604. Springer.
[15] K. Chen, Y. Zhou, and F. Dai, "An LSTM-based method for stock returns prediction: A case study of China stock market," in Big Data (Big Data), 2015 IEEE International Conference on, Oct 2015, pp. 2823–2824.
[16] Di Wang and Eric Nyberg,” A Long Short-Term Memory Model for Answer Sentence Selection in Question Answering”. In ACL (2), pp. 707–712, 2015.
[17] Yu Kang Jia, Zhicheng Wu, Yanyan Xu, Dengfeng Ke, and Kaile Su, “Long Short-Term Memory Projection Recurrent Neural Network Architectures for Piano’s Continuous Note Recognition,” Journal of Robotics, vol. 2017, Article ID 2061827, 7 pages, 2017.
[18] K.L. Chu and K.S.M. Sahari, “Behavior recognition for humanoid robots using long-short-term memory”, International Journal of Advanced Robotic Systems, vol. 13, no.6, pp. 1-14, 2016.
[19] Minlie Huang, Yujie Cao, and Chao Dong, "Modeling rich contexts for sentiment classification with LSTM". arXiv preprint arXiv:1605.01478. 2016.
[20] “Crude Oil Dataset” accessed online from https://www.kaggle.com/victor7246/weeklydatacommodity on 25-Dec-2017.
[21] Moalla H., Elloumi W., Alimi A.M. (2017) H-PSO-LSTM: Hybrid LSTM Trained by PSO for Online Handwriter Identification. In: Liu D., Xie S., Li Y., Zhao D., El-Alfy ES. (eds) Neural Information Processing. ICONIP 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 10637. Springer, Cham.