Search results for: runoff yield series

Authors: O. I. Nkwonta, G. M. Ochieng

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Surface water pollution is one of the serious environmental problems in rural areas of South Africa due to discharge of household waste into the streams, turning them into open sewers. In this study, samples of water were collected from a stream in Soshanguve and analysed. The result showed that pollution in the area was caused by man and its activities. The water quality in the area was found to have deterioted significantly after water runoff from farms and household wastes. The result shows, fertilizer runoff contributes 50% of the pollution while pesticides and sediments contribute up to 10% respectively in the streams, while household waste contributes up to 30%. This study gives an outline of the sources of water pollution in the area and provides a process of creating a clean and unpolluted environment for Soshanguve community in Pretoria north in order to achieve the 7th aim of the millennium development goals by 2015, which is ensuring environmental sustainability.

Keywords: Fertilizer, Household waste, Pollution, Roughing filters.

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Authors: Theodor D. Popescu

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The paper presents a method for multivariate time series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different method for each component, depending on its time structure. The paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, second order statistics, simulation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Ranajay Bhowmick

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Elastoplastic analysis of a structural system involves defining failure/yield criterion, flow rules and hardening rules. The failure/yield criterion defines the limit beyond which the material flows plastically and hardens/softens or remains perfectly plastic before ultimate collapse. The failure/yield criterion is represented geometrically in three/two dimensional Haigh-Westergaard stress-space to facilitate a better understanding of the behavior of the material. In the present study geometric representations in three and two-dimensional stress-space of a few important failure/yield criterion are presented. The criteria presented are the modified forms obtained due to the conditional solutions of the equation of stress invariants. A comparison of the failure/yield surfaces is also presented here to obtain the effectiveness of each of them and it has been found that for identical conditions the Rankine’s criterion gives the largest values of limiting stresses.

Keywords: Deviatoric plane, failure criteria, geometric representation, hydrostatic axis, modified form.

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Authors: Fariba Esfandiary, Ghafoor Aghaie, Ali Dolati Mehr

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Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.

Keywords: Wheat yields prediction, agro meteorological indices, statistical models

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Authors: Himali N. Balasooriya, Kithsiri B. Dassanayake, Saman Seneweera, Said Ajlouni

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Increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration [CO₂] and ambient temperature associated with changing climatic conditions will have significant impacts on agriculture crop productivity and quality. Independent effects of the above two environmental variables on the growth, yield and quality of strawberry were well documented. Higher temperatures over the optimum range (20-25ºC) lead to crop failures, while elevated [CO₂] stimulated plant growth and yield but compromised the physical quality of fruits. However, there is very limited understanding of the interaction between these variables on the plant growth, yield and quality. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate the interactive effect of high temperature and elevated [CO₂] on growth, yield and quality of strawberries. Strawberry cultivars ‘Albion’ and ‘San Andreas’ were grown under six different combinations of two temperatures (25 and 30ºC) and three [CO₂] (400, 650 and 950 µmol mol^-1) in controlled-environmental growth chambers. Plant growth measurements such as plant height, canopy area, number of flowers, and fruit yield were measured during phonological development. Photosynthesis and transpiration, the ratio of intercellular to atmospheric [CO₂] (Ci/Ca) were measured to estimate the physiological adjustment to climate stress. The impact of temperature and [CO₂] interaction on growth and yield of strawberry was significant (p < 0.05). Across both cultivars, highest fruit yields were observed at 650 µmol mol^-1 [CO₂], which was particularly clear at 25°C. The fruit yield gradually decreased at 30°C under all the treatment combinations. However, photosynthesis rates were highest at 650 µmol mol^-1 [CO₂] but no increment was found at 900 µmol mol^-1 [CO₂]. Interestingly, Ci/Ca ratio increased with increasing atmospheric [CO₂] which was predominant at high temperature. Similarly, fruit yield was substantially reduced at high [CO₂] under high temperature. Our findings suggest that increased Ci/Ca ratio at high temperature is likely reduces the photosynthesis and thus yield response to elevated [CO₂].

Keywords: Atmospheric [CO2], fruit yield, strawberry, temperature.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

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This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

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Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: B.P. Bezruchko, D.A. Smirnov

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Quantitative characterization of nonlinear directional couplings between stochastic oscillators from data is considered. We suggest coupling characteristics readily interpreted from a physical viewpoint and their estimators. An expression for a statistical significance level is derived analytically that allows reliable coupling detection from a relatively short time series. Performance of the technique is demonstrated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: Nonlinear time series analysis, directional couplings, coupled oscillators.

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Authors: Thidarat Papone, Supaporn Kookkhunthod, Ratanaporn Leesing

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Monoculture and mixed cultures of microalgae and the oleaginous yeast for microbial oil productions were investigated using sugarcane juice as carbon substrate. The monoculture of yeast Torulaspora maleeae Y30, Torulaspora globosa YU5/2 grew faster than that of microalgae Chlorella sp. KKU-S2. In monoculture of T. maleeae Y30, a biomass of 8.267g/L with lipid yield of 0.920g/L were obtained, while 8.333g/L of biomass with lipid yield of 1.141g/L were obtained for monoculture of T. globosa YU5/2. A biomass of 1.933g/L with lipid yield of 0.052g/L was found for monoculture of Chlorella sp. KKU-S2. The biomass concentration in the mixed culture of the oleaginous yeast with microalgae increased faster and was higher compared with that in the monocultures. A biomass of 8.733g/L with lipid yield of 1.564g/L was obtained for a mixed culture of T. maleeae Y30 with Chlorella sp. KKU-S2, while 8.010g/L of biomass with lipid yield of 2.424g/L was found for mixed culture of T. globosa YU5/2 with Chlorella sp. KKU-S2. Maximum cell yield coefficient (YX/S, g/L) was found of 0.323 in monoculture of Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 but low level of both specific yield of lipid (YP/X, g lipid/g cells) of 0.027 and volumetric lipid production rate (QP, g/L/d) of 0.003 were observed. While, maximum YP/X (0.303), QP (0.105) and maximum process product yield (YP/S, 0.061) were obtained in mixed culture of T. globosa YU5/2 with Chlorella sp. KKU-S2. The results obtained from the study shows that mixed culture of yeast with microalgae is a desirable cultivation process for microbial oil production.

Keywords: Microbial oil, Chlorella sp. KKU-S2, Torulaspora maleeae Y30, Torulaspora globosa YU5/2, mixed culture, biodiesel.

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Authors: Ramlan Zailani, Halim Ghafar, Mohamad Sofian So'aib

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Air infiltration in mass scale industrial applications of bio char production is inevitable. The presence of oxygen during the carbonization process is detrimental to the production of biochar yield and properties. The experiment was carried out on several wood species in a fixed-bed pyrolyser under various fractions of oxygen ranging from 0% to 11% by varying nitrogen and oxygen composition in the pyrolysing gas mixtures at desired compositions. The bed temperature and holding time were also varied. Process optimization was carried out by Response Surface Methodology (RSM) by employing Central Composite Design (CCD) using Design Expert 6.0 Software. The effect of oxygen ratio and holding time on biochar yield within the range studied were statistically significant. From the analysis result, optimum condition of 15.2% biochar yield of mangrove wood was predicted at pyrolysis temperature of 403 oC, oxygen percentage of 2.3% and holding time of two hours. This prediction agreed well with the experiment finding of 15.1% biochar yield.

Keywords: Mangrove wood, slow pyrolysis, oxygen infiltration.

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Authors: R. Yoganathan, H. K. L. K. Gunasekera, R. Hariharan

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Field experiment was conducted to investigate the combine use of animal manure and inorganic fertilizer on growth and yield performance of vegetable cowpea. The experiment was laid out in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with seven treatments. Poultry manure, cattle manure and goat manure were evaluated with recommended level of inorganic fertilizer for vegetable cowpea. The highest crop yield was obtained by the application of poultry manure combined with the recommended level of inorganic fertilizer. The lowest yield was obtained by the application of goat manure only. In addition, the results revealed that the goat manure and cattle manure were inferior to poultry manure as a source of organic manure for vegetable cowpea cultivation. The animal manure combine with chemical fertilizer gave a higher yield when compared to the sole application of animal manure. The soil analysis showed that the nitrogen content and phosphorus content of poultry manure treated plots were higher than other treatments tested. But potassium content was higher in goat manure treated plots. The results further revealed that the poultry manure has a beneficial effect on crop growth and yield compared with other treatments. Therefore, the combined use of poultry manure with inorganic fertilizer application has been recognized as the most suitable way of ensuring high crop yield.

Keywords: Animal manure, inorganic fertilizer, vegetable cowpea, growth and yield performance.

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Authors: Rully D. Purwati, Tantri D. A. Anggraeni, Bambang Heliyanto, M. Machfud, Joko Hartono

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Jatropha curcas L. is one of the crops producing non edible oil which is potential for bio-energy. Jatropha cultivation and development program in Indonesia is facing several problems especially low seed yield resulting in inefficient crop cultivation cost. To cope with the problem, development of high yielding varieties is necessary. Development of varieties to improve seed yield was conducted by hybridization and selection, and resulted in 14 potential genotypes. The yield potential of the 14 genotypes were evaluated and compared with two check varieties. The objective of the evaluation was to find Jatropha hybrids with some characters i.e. productivity higher than check varieties, oil content > 40% and harvesting age ≤ 110 days. Hybridization and individual plant selection were carried out from 2010 to 2014. Evaluation of high yield was conducted in Asembagus experimental station, Situbondo, East Java in three years (2015-2017). The experimental designed was Randomized Complete Block Design with three replication and plot size of 10 m x 8 m. The characters observed were number of capsules per plant, dry seed yield (kg/ha) and seed oil content (%). The results of this experiment indicated that all the hybrids evaluated have higher productivity than check variety IP-3A. There were two superior hybrids i.e. HS-49xSP-65/32 and HS-49xSP-19/28 with highest seed yield per hectare and number of capsules per plant during three years.

Keywords: Jatropha, biodiesel, hybrid, high seed yield.

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Adrienn Novák

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The field research was carried out at the Látókép AGTC KIT research area of the University of Debrecen in Eastern-Hungary, on the area of the aeolain loess of the Hajdúság. We examined the effects of the sowing time on the phytopathogenic characteristics and yield production by applying various fertilizer treatments on two different sunflower genotypes (NK Ferti, PR64H42) in 2012 and 2013. We applied three different sowing times (early, optimal, late) and two different treatment levels of fungicides (control = no fungicides applied, double fungicide protection).

During our investigations, the studied cropyears were of different sowing time optimum in terms of yield amount (2012: early, 2013: average). By Pearson’s correlation analysis, we have found that delaying the sowing time pronouncedly decreased the extent of infection in both crop years (Diaporthe: r=0.663**, r=0.681**, Sclerotinia: r=0.465**, r=0.622**). The fungicide treatment not only decreased the extent of infection, but had yield increasing effect too (2012: r=0.498**, 2013: r=0.603**). In 2012, delaying of the sowing time increased (r=0.600**), but in 2013, it decreased (r= 0.356*) the yield amount.

Keywords: Fungicide treatment, genotypes, sowing time, yield, sunflower.

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Authors: Ali Rahmani, Abbas Maleki, Mohammad Mirzaeiheydari, Rahim Naseri

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Most parts of the world such as Iran are facing the excessive consumption of fertilizers, that are used to achieve high yield, but increase the cost of production of fertilizer and degradation of soil and water resources. This experiment was carried out to study the effect of PGPR and planting pattern on yield and yield components of rice (Oryza sativa L.) using split plot based on randomized complete block design with three replications in Ilam province, Iran. Bio-fertilizer including Azotobacter, Nitroxin and control treatment (without consumption) were designed as a main plot and planting pattern including 15 × 10, 15 × 15 and 15 × 20 and the number of plant in hill including 3, 4 and 5 plants in hill were considered as a sub-plots. The results showed that the effect of bio-fertilizers, planting pattern and the number of plants in hill were significant affect on yield and yield components. Interaction effect between bio-fertilizer and planting pattern had important difference on the number spikelet of panicle and harvest index. Interaction effect between bio-fertilizer and the number of plants in hill were significant affect on the number of spikelet per panicle. The maximum grain yield was obtained by inoculation with Nitroxin, planting pattern of 15 × 15 and 4 plants in hill with mean of 1110.6 g.m^-2, 959.9 g.m^-2 and 928.4 g.m^-2, respectively.

Keywords: Bio-fertilizer, Grain yield, Planting pattern, Rice.

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Authors: S. Petrovska, D. Jonkus, D. Smiltiņa

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κ-casein is one of milk proteins which are very important for milk processing. Genotypes of κ-casein affect milk yield, fat, and protein content. The main factors which affect local Latvian dairy breed milk yield and composition are analyzed in research. Data were collected from 88 Latvian brown and 82 Latvian blue cows in 2015. AA genotype was 0.557 in Latvian brown and 0.232 in Latvian blue breed. BB genotype was 0.034 in Latvian brown and 0.207 in Latvian blue breed. Highest milk yield was observed in Latvian brown (5131.2 ± 172.01 kg), significantly high fat content and fat yield also was in Latvian brown (p < 0.05). Significant differences between κ-casein genotypes were not found in Latvian brown, but highest milk yield (5057 ± 130.23 kg), protein content (3.42 ± 0.03%), and protein yield (171.9 ± 4.34 kg) were with AB genotype. Significantly high fat content was observed in Latvian blue breed with BB genotype (4.29 ± 0.17%) compared with AA genotypes (3.42 ± 0.19). Similar tendency was found in protein content – 3.27 ± 0.16% with BB genotype and 2.59 ± 0.16% with AA genotype (p < 0.05). Milk yield increases by increasing parity. We did not obtain major tendency of changes of milk fat and protein content according parity.

Keywords: κ-casein, polymorphism, dairy cows, milk productivity.

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Authors: Ratanaporn Leesing, Rattanaporn Baojungharn, Thidarat Papone

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Compared to oil production from microorganisms, little work has been performed for mixed culture of microalgae and yeast. In this article it is aimed to show high oil accumulation potential of mixed culture of microalgae Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 and oleaginous yeast Torulaspora maleeae Y30 using sugarcane molasses as substrate. The monoculture of T. maleeae Y30 grew faster than that of microalgae Chlorella sp. KKU-S2. In monoculture of yeast, a biomass of 6.4g/L with specific growth rate (m) of 0.265 (1/d) and lipid yield of 0.466g/L were obtained, while 2.53g/L of biomass with m of 0.133 (1/d) and lipid yield of 0.132g/L were obtained for monoculture of Chlorella sp. KKU-S2. The biomass concentration in the mixed culture of T. maleeae Y30 with Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 increased faster and was higher compared with that in the monoculture and mixed culture of microalgae. In mixed culture of microalgae Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 and C. vulgaris TISTR8580, a biomass of 3.47g/L and lipid yield of 0.123 g/L were obtained. In mixed culture of T. maleeae Y30 with Chlorella sp. KKU-S2, a maximum biomass of 7.33 g/L and lipid yield of 0.808g/L were obtained. Maximum cell yield coefficient (YX/S, 0.229g/L), specific yield of lipid (YP/X, 0.11g lipid/g cells) and volumetric lipid production rate (QP, 0.115 g/L/d) were obtained in mixed culture of yeast and microalgae. Clearly, T. maleeae Y30 and Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 use sugarcane molasses as organic nutrients efficiently in mixed culture under mixotrophic growth. The biomass productivity and lipid yield are notably enhanced in comparison with monoculture.

Keywords: Microbial oil, Chlorella sp. KKU-S2, Chlorella vulgaris, Torulaspora maleeae Y30, mixed culture, biodiesel.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

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This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: Sheetal Sharma

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Runoff,decreasing water levels and recharge in urban areas have been a complex issue now a days pointing defective urban design and increasing demography as cause. Very less has been discussed or analysed for water sensitive Urban Master Plans or local area plans. Land use planning deals with land transformation from natural areas into developed ones, which lead to changes in natural environment. Elaborated knowledge of relationship between the existing patterns of land use-land cover and recharge with respect to prevailing soil below is less as compared to speed of development. The parameters of incompatibility between urban functions and the functions of the natural environment are becoming various. Changes in land patterns due to built up, pavements, roads and similar land cover affects surface water flow seriously. It also changes permeability and absorption characteristics of the soil. Urban planners need to know natural processes along with modern means and best technologies available,as there is a huge gap between basic knowledge of natural processes and its requirement for balanced development planning leading to minimum impact on water recharge. The present paper analyzes the variations in land use land cover and their impacts on surface flows and sub-surface recharge in study area. The methodology adopted was to analyse the changes in land use and land cover using GIS and Civil 3d auto cad. The variations were used in  computer modeling using Storm-water Management Model to find out the runoff for various soil groups and resulting recharge observing water levels in POW data for last 40 years of the study area. Results were anlayzed again to find best correlations for sustainable recharge in urban areas.

Keywords: Geology, runoff, urban planning, land use-land cover.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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Authors: F. E. Cherati, T. Naij , A. Amraei, Y. Hosseinpor

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In order to study the influence of different methods of controlling weeds such as mechanical weeding and mechanical weeder efficiency analysis in mechanical cultivation conditions, in farming year of 2011 an experiment was done in a farm in coupling and development of technology center in Haraz,Iran. The treatments consisted of (I) control treatment: where no weeding was done, (II) use of mechanical weeding without engine and (III) power mechanical weeding. Results showed that experimental treatments had significantly different effects (p=0.05) on yield traits and number of filled grains per panicle, while treatments had the significant effects on grain weight and dry weight of weeds in the first, second and third weeding methods at 1% of confidence level. Treatment (II) had its most significant effect on number of filled grains per panicle and yield performance standpoint, which was 3705.97 kg ha-1 in its highest peak. Treatment (III) was ranked as second influential with 3559.8 kg ha-1. In addition, under (I) treatments, 2364.73 kg ha-1 of yield produced. The minimum dry weights of weeds in all weeding methods were related to the treatment (II), (III) and (I), respectively. The correlation coefficient analysis showed that total yield had a significant positive correlation with the panicle grain yield per plant (r= 0.55*) and the number of grains per panicle-1 (r= 0.57*) and the number of filled grains (r= 0.63*). Total rice yield also had negative correlation of r= -0. 64* with weed dry weight at second weed sampling time (17 DAT). The weed dry weight at third and fourth sampling times (24 and 40 DAT) had negative correlations of -0.65** and r=-0.61* with rice yield, respectively.

Keywords: Dry weight, without engine mechanical weeder, power mechanical weeder, yield rice.

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: Ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss.

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Authors: Nasser Shamskia, Seyyed Habib Rahmati, Hassan Haleh , Seyyedeh Hoda Rahmati

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The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly, these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data. Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness. Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.

Keywords: Fuzzy Discharge, Fuzzy estimation, Fuzzy ranking method, Hydrological data

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Authors: Pascal Mwenge, Jefrey Pilusa, Tumisang Seodigeng

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The current study investigated the effect of catalyst ratio and methanol to oil ratio on biodiesel production by using central composite design. Biodiesel was produced by transesterification using sodium hydroxide as a homogeneous catalyst, a laboratory scale reactor consisting of flat bottom flask mounts with a reflux condenser and a heating plate was used to produce biodiesel. Key parameters, including, time, temperature and mixing rate were kept constant at 60 minutes, 60 ^oC and 600 RPM, respectively. From the results obtained, it was observed that the biodiesel yield depends on catalyst ratio and methanol to oil ratio. The highest yield of 50.65% was obtained at catalyst ratio of 0.5 wt.% and methanol to oil mole ratio 10.5. The analysis of variances of biodiesel yield showed the R Squared value of 0.8387. A quadratic mathematical model was developed to predict the biodiesel yield in the specified parameters ranges.

Keywords: ANOVA, biodiesel, catalyst, CCD, transesterification.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: Ayman El Sabagh, Celaleddin Barutçular, Hirofumi Saneoka

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most serious problems posing a grave threat to cereals production including maize. Maize improvement in drought-stress tolerance poses a great challenge as the global need for food and bio-energy increases. Thus, the current study was planned to explore the variations and determine the performance of target traits of maize hybrids at grain growth stage under drought conditions during 2014 under Adana, Mediterranean climate conditions, Turkey. Maize hybrids (Sancia, Indaco, 71May69, Aaccel, Calgary, 70May82, 72May80) were evaluated under (irrigated and water stress). Results revealed that, grain yield and yield traits had a negative effects because of water stress conditions compared with the normal irrigation. As well as, based on the result under normal irrigation, the maximum biological yield and harvest index were recorded. According to the differences among hybrids were found that, significant differences were observed among hybrids with respect to yield and yield traits under current research. Based on the results, grain weight had more effect on grain yield than grain number during grain filling growth stage under water stress conditions. In this concern, according to low drought susceptibility index (less grain yield losses), the hybrid (Indaco) was more stable in grain number and grain weight. Consequently, it may be concluded that this hybrid would be recommended for use in the future breeding programs for production of drought tolerant hybrids.

Keywords: Drought susceptibility index, grain filling, grain yield, maize, water stress.

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Authors: Saad M. Howladar, Mostafa M. Rady, Ashraf Sh. Osman

Abstract:

Effects of bio-nitrogen fertilizer (bio-N), as a partial alternative to mineral-nitrogen fertilizer (mineral-N), on growth, yield and yield quality of broccoli plants were investigated. Bio-N was applied at 1, 2 or 3 doses in combination with 65% of the recommended dose of mineral-N (bio-N1, bio-N2 or bio-N3 + ⅔mineral-N). However, 100% of the recommended dose of mineral- N was applied as a control. Significant positive influences of the bio- N3 + ⅔mineral-N treatment were observed on growth traits, leaf contents of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, nitrate and nitrite, and yield quality when compared to the other two combined treatments. In contrast, there were no significant differences in these parameters between the bio-N3 + ⅔mineral-N and the control treatments, except for leaf contents of nitrate and nitrite. They showed lower contents in the bio-N3 + ⅔mineral-N treatment than the control. Therefore, we recommend using bio-N as a partial alternative to mineral-N for healthy nutrition.

Keywords: Bio-fertilization, broccoli, growth, nitrate, nitrite, yield quality.

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Authors: G. Viswanadh Raviteja

Abstract:

In this paper, a microstrip antenna array is designed for 5G applications. A corporate series feed is considered to operate with a center frequency between 27 to 28 GHz to be able to cover the 5G frequency bands 24.25-27.5 GHz, 26.5-29.5 GHz and 27.5-28.35 GHz. The substrate is taken to be Rogers RT/Duroid 6002. The corporate series 5G antenna array is designed stage by stage by taking into consideration a conventional antenna designed at 28 GHz, thereby constructing the 2X1 antenna array before arriving at the final design structure of 4-element corporate series feed antenna array. The discussions concerning S11 parameter, gain and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the design structures are considered and all the important findings are tabulated. The proposed antenna array’s S11 parameter was found to be -29.00 dB at a frequency of 27.39 GHz with a good directional gain of 12.12 dB.

Keywords: Corporate series feed, millimeter wave antenna array, 5G applications, millimeter-wave (mm-wave) applications

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Authors: Mutiyaporn Puangbut, Ratanaporn Leesing

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to study of microbial lipid production by locally photosynthetic microalgae and oleaginous yeast via integrated cultivation technique using CO2 emissions from yeast fermentation. A maximum specific growth rate of Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 of 0.284 (1/d) was obtained under an integrated cultivation and a maximum lipid yield of 1.339g/L was found after cultivation for 5 days, while 0.969g/L of lipid yield was obtained after day 6 of cultivation time by using CO2 from air. A high value of volumetric lipid production rate (QP, 0.223 g/L/d), specific product yield (YP/X, 0.194), volumetric cell mass production rate (QX, 1.153 g/L/d) were found by using ambient air CO2 coupled with CO2 emissions from yeast fermentation. Overall lipid yield of 8.33 g/L was obtained (1.339 g/L of Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 and 7.06g/L of T. maleeae Y30) while low lipid yield of 0.969g/L was found using non-integrated cultivation technique. To our knowledge this is the unique report about the lipid production from locally microalgae Chlorella sp. KKU-S2 and yeast T. maleeae Y30 in an integrated technique to improve the biomass and lipid yield by using CO2 emissions from yeast fermentation.

Keywords: Microbial lipid, Chlorella sp. KKU-S2, Torulaspora maleeae Y30, oleaginous yeast, biodiesel, CO2 emissions

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