Search results for: post-operative outcome.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 291

Search results for: post-operative outcome.

201 Reference Architecture for Intelligent Enterprise Solutions

Authors: Shankar Kambhampaty, Harish Rohan Kambhampaty

Abstract:

Data in IT systems in enterprises have been growing at phenomenal pace. This has provided opportunities to run analytics to gather intelligence on key business parameters that enable them to provide better products and services to customers. While there are several Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) and Business Intelligence (BI) tools and technologies available in marketplace to run analytics, there is a need for an integrated view when developing intelligent solutions in enterprises. This paper progressively elaborates a reference model for enterprise solutions, builds an integrated view of data, information and intelligence components and presents a reference architecture for intelligent enterprise solutions. Finally, it applies the reference architecture to an insurance organization. The reference architecture is the outcome of experience and insights gathered from developing intelligent solutions for several organizations.

Keywords: Architecture, model, intelligence, artificial intelligence, business intelligence, AI, BI, ML, analytics, enterprise.

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200 Teachers' Conceptions as a Basis for the Design of an Educational Application: Case Perioperative Nursing

Authors: Antti Pirhonen, Minna Silvennoinen

Abstract:

The only relevant basis for the design of an educational application are objectives of learning for the content area. This study analyses the process in which the real – not only the formal – objectives could work as the starting point for the construction of an educational game. The application context is the education of perioperative nursing. The process is based on the panel discussions of nursing teachers. In the panels, the teachers elaborated the objectives. The transcribed discussions were analysed in terms of the conceptions of learning and teaching of perioperative nursing. The outcome of the study is first the elaborated objectives, which will be used in the implementation of an educational game for the needs of pre-, intra and post-operative nursing skills learning. Second, the study shows that different views of learning are necessary to be understood in order to design an appropriate educational application.

Keywords: Perioperative nursing, conceptions of learning, educational applications.

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199 Medical Negligence Disputes in Malaysia: Resolving through Hazards of Litigation or through Community Responsibilities?

Authors: Puteri Nemie Jahn Kassim, Khadijah Mohd Najid

Abstract:

Medical negligence disputes in Malaysia are mainly resolved through litigation by using the tort system. The tort system, being adversarial in nature has subjected parties to litigation hazards such as delay, excessive costs and uncertainty of outcome. The dissatisfaction of the tort system in compensating medically injured victims has created various alternatives to litigation. Amongst them is the implementation of a no-fault compensation system which would allow compensation to be given without the need of proving fault on the medical personnel. Instead, the community now bears the burden of compensating and at the end, promotes collective responsibility. For Malaysia, introducing a no-fault system would provide a tempting solution and may ultimately, achieve justice for the medical injured victims. Nevertheless, such drastic change requires a great deal of consideration to determine the suitability of the system and whether or not it will eventually cater for the needs of the Malaysian population

Keywords: Medical Disputes, Litigation, Malaysia, No-Fault Compensation.

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198 Patient-Specific Modeling Algorithm for Medical Data Based on AUC

Authors: Guilherme Ribeiro, Alexandre Oliveira, Antonio Ferreira, Shyam Visweswaran, Gregory Cooper

Abstract:

Patient-specific models are instance-based learning algorithms that take advantage of the particular features of the patient case at hand to predict an outcome. We introduce two patient-specific algorithms based on decision tree paradigm that use AUC as a metric to select an attribute. We apply the patient specific algorithms to predict outcomes in several datasets, including medical datasets. Compared to the patient-specific decision path (PSDP) entropy-based and CART methods, the AUC-based patient-specific decision path models performed equivalently on area under the ROC curve (AUC). Our results provide support for patient-specific methods being a promising approach for making clinical predictions.

Keywords: Approach instance-based, area Under the ROC Curve, Patient-specific Decision Path, clinical predictions.

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197 Distributed Motion Control Real-Time Contouring Algorithm Implementation and Performance Test

Authors: Francisco J. Lopez-Jaquez, Sandra E. Ramirez-Jara

Abstract:

This paper presents an implementation and performance test of a distributed motion control system based on a master-slave configuration used to move a plasma-cutting torch over a predefined trajectory. The master is a general-purpose computer running on an open source operating system platform and software developer. Software running in the master computer generates commands on real time and we measure performance based on a selected set of differences between expected and observed distances. We are testing the null hypothesis that the outcome trajectory is identical to the input against the alternative hypothesis that there is a shift to the right or left of the input one. We used the Wilcoxon signed ranks test method for the hypothesis test.

Keywords: Distributed, motion, control, real-time, contouring.

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196 MITAutomatic ECG Beat Tachycardia Detection Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: R. Amandi, A. Shahbazi, A. Mohebi, M. Bazargan, Y. Jaberi, P. Emadi, A. Valizade

Abstract:

The application of Neural Network for disease diagnosis has made great progress and is widely used by physicians. An Electrocardiogram carries vital information about heart activity and physicians use this signal for cardiac disease diagnosis which was the great motivation towards our study. In our work, tachycardia features obtained are used for the training and testing of a Neural Network. In this study we are using Fuzzy Probabilistic Neural Networks as an automatic technique for ECG signal analysis. As every real signal recorded by the equipment can have different artifacts, we needed to do some preprocessing steps before feeding it to our system. Wavelet transform is used for extracting the morphological parameters of the ECG signal. The outcome of the approach for the variety of arrhythmias shows the represented approach is superior than prior presented algorithms with an average accuracy of about %95 for more than 7 tachy arrhythmias.

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, Probabilistic Neural Network, Tachycardia, Wavelet Transform.

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195 Learning Undergraduate Mathematics in a Discovery-Enriched Approach

Authors: Kam-moon Liu, Kwok-chi Chim, Kwok-wai Chung, Daniel Wing-cheong Ho

Abstract:

Students often adopt routine practicing as learning strategy for mathematics. The reason is they are often bound and trained to solving conventional-typed questions in Mathematics in high school. This will be problematic if students further consolidate this practice in university. Therefore, the Department of Mathematics emphasized and integrated the Discovery-enriched approach in the undergraduate curriculum. This paper presents the details of implementing the Discovery-enriched Curriculum by providing adequate platform for project-learning, expertise for guidance and internship opportunities for students majoring in Mathematics. The Department also provided project-learning opportunities to mathematics courses targeted for students majoring in other science or engineering disciplines. The outcome is promising: the research ability and problem solving skills of students are enhanced.

Keywords: Discovery-enriched curriculum, higher education, mathematics education, project learning.

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194 Radiobiological Model in Radiotherapy Planning for Prostate Cancer Treatment

Authors: Pradip Deb

Abstract:

Quantitative radiobiological models can be used to assess the optimum clinical outcome from sophisticated therapeutic modalities by calculating tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study two 3D-CRT and an IMRT treatment plans were developed with an initial prescription dose of 60 Gy in 2 Gy/fraction to prostate. Sensitivity of TCP and Complication free tumor control probability (P+) to the different values of α/β ratio was investigated for various prescription doses planned to be delivered in either a fixed number of fractions (I) or in a fixed dose per fraction (II) in each of the three different treatment plans. High dose/fraction and high α/β value result in comparatively smaller P+ and IMRT plans resulted in the highest P+, mainly due to the decrease in NTCP. If α/β is lower than expected, better tumor control can be achieved by increasing dose/fraction but decreasing the number of fractions.

Keywords: Linear Quadratic Model, TCP, NTCP, α/β ratio.

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193 The Strategy for Increasing the Competitiveness of Georgia

Authors: G. Erkomaishvili

Abstract:

The paper discusses economic policy of Georgia aiming to increase national competitiveness as well as the tools and means which will help to improve the competitiveness of the country. The sectors of the economy, in which the country can achieve the competitive advantage, are studied. It is noted that the country’s economic policy plays an important role in obtaining and maintaining the competitive advantage - authority should take measures to ensure high level of education; scientific and research activities should be funded by the state; foreign direct investments should be attracted mainly in science-intensive industries; adaptation with the latest scientific achievements of the modern world and deepening of scientific and technical cooperation. Stable business environment and export oriented strategy is the basis for the country’s economic growth. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests the strategy for improving competitiveness in Georgia; recommendations are provided based on relevant conclusions.

Keywords: Competitive advantage, competitiveness, competitiveness improvement strategy, competitiveness of Georgia.

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192 Development of a Methodology for Processing of Drilling Operations

Authors: Majid Tolouei-Rad, Ankit Shah

Abstract:

Drilling is the most common machining operation and it forms the highest machining cost in many manufacturing activities including automotive engine production. The outcome of this operation depends upon many factors including utilization of proper cutting tool geometry, cutting tool material and the type of coating used to improve hardness and resistance to wear, and also cutting parameters. With the availability of a large array of tool geometries, materials and coatings, is has become a challenging task to select the best tool and cutting parameters that would result in the lowest machining cost or highest profit rate. This paper describes an algorithm developed to help achieve good performances in drilling operations by automatically determination of proper cutting tools and cutting parameters. It also helps determine machining sequences resulting in minimum tool changes that would eventually reduce machining time and cost where multiple tools are used.

Keywords: Cutting tool, drilling, machining, algorithm.

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191 Outcomes of Teenage Mothers at Dankhunthot Hospital, Nakhon Ratchasima

Authors: Nareelux Suwannobol, Supap Chobkhayan

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the pregnancy outcomes of teenage mothers at DanKhunThot hospital, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand. A retrospective descriptive study was conducted in 573 of teenage pregnant from charts reviewed from 1st October 2010-31st March, 2012. Data were analyzed by frequency distribution, mean and Standard Deviation. The results shown several problems and negatives outcomes of pregnancy in teenager such as not attended prenatal care, Low birth weight infants, death fetus in utero and other complications. The results of this study can be utilized in the development of prenatal, perinatal and post natal care services, especially in DanKhunthot Hospital contexts. Moreover, the results were present to the District Health Care committees in order to enhance health care service system for teenage pregnancy of DanKhunthot District in further.

Keywords: Teenage mothers, Pregnancy outcome, Neonatal outcomes, Maternal outcomes.

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190 A Discrete-Event-Simulation Approach for Logistic Systems with Real Time Resource Routing and VR Integration

Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

Abstract:

Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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189 Enhancing Learning Experiences in Outcomebased Higher Education: A Step towards Student Centered Learning

Authors: K. Kumpas

Abstract:

Bologna process has influenced enhancing studentcentered learning in Estonian higher education since 2009, but there is no information about what helps or hinders students to achieve learning outcomes and how quality of student-centered learning might be improved. The purpose of this study is to analyze two questions from outcome-based course evaluation questionnaire which is used in Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences. In this qualitative research, 384 students from 22 different courses described what helped and hindered them to achieve learning outcomes. The analysis showed that the aspects that hinder students to achieve learning outcomes are mostly personal: time management, family and personal matters, motivation and non-academic activities. The results indicate that students- learning is commonly supported by school, where teacher, teaching and characteristics of teaching methods help mostly to achieve learning outcomes, also learning material, practical assignments and independent study was brought up as one of the key elements.

Keywords: Learning outcomes, learning quality, student-centered learning

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188 Hybrid Quasi-Steady Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Model for Studying the Behavior of Oil in Water Emulsions Used in Machining Tool Cooling and Lubrication

Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

Abstract:

Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: Hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress.

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187 Measuring the Academic Self-Efficacy of Undergraduates: The Role of Gender and Academic Year Experience

Authors: Vilani Sachitra, Udari Bandara

Abstract:

Self-efficacy beliefs provide the foundation for human motivation, well-being, and personal accomplishment. This study measured the levels of academic self-efficacy of undergraduates and also examined whether there any differences in academic self-efficacy with respect to gender and academic year. A structured questionnaire was employed to collect data from undergraduates who enrolled the Bachelor of Commerce degree programme at the University of Sri Jayewardenepura. The outcome of the study revealed that undergraduates lacked the confidence to ask and answer questions, seek help from lecturers, have a study plan and engage in academic discussion and note-taking. However, the findings also demonstrated that undergraduates were not hesitant about seeking help from friends, had confidence on meeting the deadlines and completing the degree within four years. Interestingly, females displayed higher academic self-efficacy than males. Specifically, the data were supported to conclude that there were significant differences in academic self-efficacy with respect to academic years.

Keywords: Academic year, bachelor of commerce undergraduates, gender, self-efficacy.

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186 Operational- Economics Based Evaluation And Selection of A Power Plant Using Graph Theoretic Approach

Authors: Naresh Yadav, I.A. Khan, Sandeep Grover

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology for operational and economic characteristics based evaluation and selection of a power plant using Graph theoretic approach. A universal evaluation index on the basis of Operational and economics characteristics of a plant is proposed which evaluates and ranks the various types of power plants. The index thus obtained from the pool of operational characteristics of the power plant attributes Digraph. The Digraph is developed considering Operational and economics attributes of the power plants and their relative importance for their smooth operation, installation and commissioning and prioritizing their selection. The sensitivity analysis of the attributes towards the objective has also been carried out in order to study the impact of attributes over the desired outcome i.e. the universal operational-economics index of the power plant.

Keywords: Power plant evaluation, Digraph methods, Matrixmethod, operational characteristics of Power plant, Gas turbines

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185 LabVIEW with Fuzzy Logic Controller Simulation Panel for Condition Monitoring of Oil and Dry Type Transformer

Authors: N. A. Muhamad, S.A.M. Ali

Abstract:

Condition monitoring of electrical power equipment has attracted considerable attention for many years. The aim of this paper is to use Labview with Fuzzy Logic controller to build a simulation system to diagnose transformer faults and monitor its condition. The front panel of the system was designed using LabVIEW to enable computer to act as customer-designed instrument. The dissolved gas-in-oil analysis (DGA) method was used as technique for oil type transformer diagnosis; meanwhile terminal voltages and currents analysis method was used for dry type transformer. Fuzzy Logic was used as expert system that assesses all information keyed in at the front panel to diagnose and predict the condition of the transformer. The outcome of the Fuzzy Logic interpretation will be displayed at front panel of LabVIEW to show the user the conditions of the transformer at any time.

Keywords: LabVIEW, Fuzzy Logic, condition monitoring, oiltransformer, dry transformer, DGA, terminal values.

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184 Slip Effect Study of 4:1 Contraction Flow for Oldroyd-B Model

Authors: N. Thongjub, B. Puangkird, V. Ngamaramvaranggul

Abstract:

The numerical simulation of the slip effect via vicoelastic fluid for 4:1 contraction problem is investigated with regard to kinematic behaviors of streamlines and stress tensor by models of the Navier-Stokes and Oldroyd-B equations. Twodimensional spatial reference system of incompressible creeping flow with and without slip velocity is determined and the finite element method of a semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin pressure-correction is applied to compute the problem of this Cartesian coordinate system including the schemes of velocity gradient recovery method and the streamline-Upwind / Petrov-Galerkin procedure. The slip effect at channel wall is added to calculate after each time step in order to intend the alteration of flow path. The result of stress values and the vortices are reduced by the optimum slip coefficient of 0.1 with near the outcome of analytical solution.

Keywords: Slip effect, Oldroyd-B fluid, slip coefficient, time stepping method.

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183 Survey on Strategic Games and Decision Making

Authors: S. Madhavi, K. Baala Srinivas, G. Bharath, R. K. Indhuja, M. Kowser Chandini

Abstract:

Game theory is the study of how people interact and make decisions to handle competitive situations. It has mainly been developed to study decision making in complex situations. Humans routinely alter their behaviour in response to changes in their social and physical environment. As a consequence, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behaviour of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. In addition to the decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Nash equilibrium is a fundamental concept in the theory of games and the most widely used method of predicting the outcome of a strategic interaction in the social sciences. A Nash Equilibrium exists when there is no unilateral profitable deviation from any of the players involved. On the other hand, no player in the game would take a different action as long as every other player remains the same.

Keywords: Game Theory, Nash Equilibrium, Rules of Dominance.

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182 Institutionalising Corporate Social Responsibility: A Study on the CSR Statements on Corporate Websites of Malaysian and Singapore Corporations

Authors: Shahrina Md Nordin, Zulhamri Abdullah, Yuhanis Abdul Aziz

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to examine the current state of corporate social responsibility statements on corporate websites of Malaysian and Singaporean corporations and analyze how the CSR statements contribute in building a unique corporate identity of corporations. Content analysis is employed to examine the websites of Malaysian and Singaporean consumer corporations. It is believed that generally most companies tend to publish and communicate their CSR statements visibly to general stakeholders. However, there is a significantly different outcome of the articulation of CSR on practices on websites between Malaysian and Singaporean consumer corporations. A number of Singaporean organizations were found less concerned with CSR practices as compared to Malaysian organizations. The findings indicate a need for corporations in Malaysia and Singapore to orchestrate their core competence of CSR activities in order to develop a unique corporate identity in a global business environment.

Keywords: Corporate identity, Corporate Social Responsibility, Asian country.

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181 A Case Study on Product Development Performance Measurement

Authors: Liv Gingnell, Evelina Ericsson, Joakim Lilliesköld, Robert Langerström

Abstract:

In recent years, an increased competition and lower profit margins have necessitated a focus on improving the performance of the product development process, an area that traditionally have been excluded from detailed steering and evaluation. A systematic improvement requires a good understanding of the current performance, wherefore the interest for product development performance measurement has increased dramatically. This paper presents a case study that evaluates the performance of the product development performance measurement system used in a Swedish company that is a part of a global corporate group. The study is based on internal documentation and eighteen in-depth interviews with stakeholders involved in the product development process. The results from the case study includes a description of what metrics that are in use, how these are employed, and its affect on the quality of the performance measurement system. Especially, the importance of having a well-defined process proved to have a major impact on the quality of the performance measurement system in this particular case.

Keywords: Outcome metric, Performance driver, Performance measurement, Product development process.

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180 Effects of Human Capital and Openness on Economic Growth of Developed and Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Authors: Fatma Didin Sonmez, Pinar Sener

Abstract:

Technology transfer by international trade and foreign direct investment is the most important positive outcome of open economy. It is widely accepted that new technology and knowledge have an important role in enhancing economic growth. Human capital is the other important factor assisting economic growth. In this study, the role of human capital in the growth process is examined in a view of new endogenous growth theory emphasizing on the technology transfer resulting from international trade. Using the panel data of 10 developed and 10 developing countries, impact of human capital and openness on the rate of economic growth of different countries is analysed. Evidence suggests the view that human capital and openness contribute to the economic growth in both developing and developed countries, but with different rates.

Keywords: economic growth, human capital, openness, technology

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179 Time Series Modelling and Prediction of River Runoff: Case Study of Karkheh River, Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R2) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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178 Comparative Analysis and Evaluation of Software Vulnerabilities Testing Techniques

Authors: Khalid Alnafjan, Tazar Hussain, Hanif Ullah, Zia ul haq Paracha

Abstract:

Software and applications are subjected to serious and damaging security threats, these threats are increasing as a result of increased number of potential vulnerabilities. Security testing is an indispensable process to validate software security requirements and to identify security related vulnerabilities. In this paper we analyze and compare different available vulnerabilities testing techniques based on a pre defined criteria using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We have selected five testing techniques which includes Source code analysis, Fault code injection, Robustness, Stress and Penetration testing techniques. These testing techniques have been evaluated against five criteria which include cost, thoroughness, Ease of use, effectiveness and efficiency. The outcome of the study is helpful for researchers, testers and developers to understand effectiveness of each technique in its respective domain. Also the study helps to compare the inner working of testing techniques against a selected criterion to achieve optimum testing results.

Keywords: Software Security, Security Testing, Testing techniques, vulnerability, AHP.

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177 In vivo Histomorphometric and Corrosion Analysis of Ti-Ni-Cr Shape Memory Alloys in Rabbits

Authors: T. Ahmed, Z. Butt, M. Ali, S. Attiq, M. Ali

Abstract:

A series of Ti based shape memory alloys with composition of Ti50Ni49Cr1, Ti50Ni47Cr3 and Ti50Ni45Cr5 were developed by vacuum arc-melting under a purified argon atmosphere. The histometric and corrosion evaluation of Ti-Ni-Cr shape memory alloys have been considered in this research work. The alloys were developed by vacuum arc melting and implanted subcutaneously in rabbits for 4, 8 and 12 weeks. Metallic implants were embedded in order to determine the outcome of implantation on histometric and corrosion evaluation of Ti-Ni-Cr metallic strips. Encapsulating membrane formation around the alloys was minimal in the case of all materials. After histomorphometric analyses it was possible to demonstrate that there were no statistically significant differences between the materials. Corrosion rate was also determined in this study which is within acceptable range. The results showed the Ti- Ni-Cr alloy was neither cytotoxic, nor have any systemic reaction on living system in any of the test performed. Implantation shows good compatibility and a potential of being used directly in vivo system.

Keywords: Shape memory alloy, Ti-Ni-Fe, histomorphometric, corrosion.

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176 Extraction of Natural Colorant from the Flowers of Flame of Forest Using Ultrasound

Authors: Sunny Arora, Meghal A. Desai

Abstract:

An impetus towards green consumerism and implementation of sustainable techniques, consumption of natural products and utilization of environment friendly techniques have gained accelerated acceptance. Butein, a natural colorant, has many medicinal properties apart from its use in dyeing industries. Extraction of butein from the flowers of flame of forest was carried out using ultrasonication bath. Solid loading (2-6 g), extraction time (30-50 min), volume of solvent (30-50 mL) and types of solvent (methanol, ethanol and water) have been studied to maximize the yield of butein using the Taguchi method. The highest yield of butein 4.67% (w/w) was obtained using 4 g of plant material, 40 min of extraction time and 30 mL volume of methanol as a solvent. The present method provided a greater reduction in extraction time compared to the conventional method of extraction. Hence, the outcome of the present investigation could further be utilized to develop the method at a higher scale.

Keywords: Butein, flowers of flame of forest, Taguchi method, ultrasonic bath.

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175 Modeling Football Penalty Shootouts: How Improving Individual Performance Affects Team Performance and the Fairness of the ABAB Sequence

Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

Abstract:

Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: Football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA.

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174 Best Option for Countercyclical Capital Buffer Implementation - Scenarios for Baltic States

Authors: Ģirts Brasliņš, Ilja Arefjevs, Nadežda Tarakanova

Abstract:

The objective of countercyclical capital buffer is to encourage banks to build up buffers in good times that can be drawn down in bad times. The aim of the report is to assess such decisions by banks derived from three approaches. The approaches are the aggregate credit-to-GDP ratio, credit growth as well as banking sector profits. The approaches are implemented for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for the time period 2000-2012. The report compares three approaches and analyses their relevance to the Baltic States by testing the correlation between a growth in studied variables and a growth of corresponding gaps. Methods used in the empirical part of the report are econometric analysis as well as economic analysis, development indicators, relative and absolute indicators and other methods. The research outcome is a cross-Baltic comparison of two alternative approaches to establish or release a countercyclical capital buffer by banks and their implications for each Baltic country.

Keywords: Basel III, countercyclical capital buffer, banks, credit growth, Baltic States.

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173 A Detailed Timber Harvest Simulator Coupled with 3-D Visualization

Authors: Jürgen Roßmann, Gerrit Alves

Abstract:

In today-s world, the efficient utilization of wood resources comes more and more to the mind of forest owners. It is a very complex challenge to ensure an efficient harvest of the wood resources. This is one of the scopes the project “Virtual Forest II" addresses. Its core is a database with data about forests containing approximately 260 million trees located in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). Based on this data, tree growth simulations and wood mobilization simulations can be conducted. This paper focuses on the latter. It describes a discrete-event-simulation with an attached 3-D real time visualization which simulates timber harvest using trees from the database with different crop resources. This simulation can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress of the wood crop. All the data gathered during the simulation is presented as a detailed summary afterwards. This summary includes cost-benefit calculations and can be compared to those of previous runs to optimize the financial outcome of the timber harvest by exchanging crop resources or modifying their parameters.

Keywords: Timber harvest, simulation, 3-D, optimization.

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172 A National Idea in Conditions of the Islamic Revival

Authors: G. E. Nadirova, Sh. S. Kaliyeva, A. A. Mustafaeva, B. Zh. Aktaulova

Abstract:

Discussion and development of principles of the uniform nation formation within the limits of the Kazakhstan state obviously became one of the most pressing questions of the day. The fact that this question has not been solved "from above" as many other questions has caused really brisk discussion, shows us increase of civil consciousness in Kazakhstan society, and also the actuality of this theme which can be carried in the category of fatal questions. In any sense, nation building has raised civil society to a much higher level. It would be better to begin with certain definitions. First is the word "nation". The second is the "state". Both of these terms are very closely connected with each other, so that in English language they are in general synonyms. In Russian more shades of these terms exist. For example in Kazakhstan the citizens of the country irrespective of nationality (but mainly with reference to non-kazakhs) are called «kazakhstanians», while the name of the title nation is \"Kazakhs\". The same we can see in Russia, where, for example, the Chechen or the Yakut –are \"Rossiyane\" which means “the citizens of Russian Federation, but not \"Russians\". The paper was written under the research project “Islam in modern Kazakhstan: the nature and outcome of the religious revival”.

Keywords: Islamic revival, Kazakhs, Kazakhstan, Nation, National idea.

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