Search results for: logistic competitiveness
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 320

Search results for: logistic competitiveness

80 Does the Adoption of IFRS Influence Earnings Management towards Small Positive Profits? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Sawcen Chebaane, Hakim Ben Othman

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on the frequency of earnings managements towards small positive profits. We focus on two emerging markets IFRS adopters: South Africa and Turkey. We tested our logistic regression using appropriate panelestimation techniques over a sample of 330 South African and 210 Turkish firm-year observations over the period 2002-2008. Our results document that mandatory adoption of IFRS is not associated with a reduction in earnings management towards small positive profits in emerging markets. These results contradict most of the previous findings of the studies conducted in developed countries. Based on the legal system factor, we compare the intensity of earnings management between a code law country (Turkey) and a common law country (South Africa) over the pre and post-adoption periods. Our findings show that the frequency of such earnings management practice increases significantly for the code law country.

Keywords: Civil law, common law, emerging markets, Mandatory IFRS adoption, small positive profits.

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79 Corporate Governance Practices and Audit Quality: An Empirical Study of the Listed Companies in Egypt

Authors: Mohamed Moustafa Soliman, Mohamed Abd Elsalam

Abstract:

Recent financial international scandals around the world have led to a number of investigations into the effectiveness of corporate governance practices and audit quality. Although evidence of corporate governance practices and audit quality exists from developed economies, very scanty studies have been conducted in Egypt where corporate governance is just evolving. Therefore, this study provides evidence on the effectiveness of corporate governance practices and audit quality from a developing country. The data for analysis are gathered from the top 50 most active companies in the Egyptian Stock Exchange, covering the three year period 2007-2009. Logistic regression was used in investigating the questions that were raised in the study. Findings from the study show that board independence; CEO duality and audit committees significantly have relationship with audit quality. The results also, indicate that institutional investor and managerial ownership have no significantly relationship with audit quality. Evidence also exist that size of the company; complexity and business leverage are important factors in audit quality for companies quoted on the Egypt Stock Exchange.

Keywords: Corporate governance, Boards of directors, corporate ownership, Audit Committees, Audit quality, and Egypt.

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78 Development of Environment Friendly Mimosa Tannin-Cornstarch Based Wood Adhesive

Authors: Salise Oktay, Nilgün Kızılcan, Başak Bengü

Abstract:

At present, formaldehyde-based adhesives such as urea formaldehyde (UF), melamine formaldehyde (MF), melamine-urea formaldehyde (MUF) etc. are mostly used in wood-based panel industry because of their high reactivity, chemical versatility and economic competitiveness. However, formaldehyde-based wood adhesives are produced from non-renewable resources. Hence, there has been a growing interest in the development of environment friendly, economically competitive, bio-based wood adhesives in order to meet wood-based panel industry requirements. In this study, as formaldehyde free adhesive, tannin and starch-based wood adhesive was synthesized. Citric acid and tartaric acid were used as hardener for the resin system. Solid content, viscosity and gel time analyzes of the prepared adhesive were performed in order to evaluate the adhesive processability. FTIR characterization technique was used to elucidate chemical structures of the cured adhesive samples. In order to evaluate the performance of the prepared bio-based resin formulation, particleboards were produced in laboratory scale and mechanical, physical properties of the boards were investigated. Besides, formaldehyde contents of the boards were determined by using perforator method. The obtained results revealed that the developed bio-based wood adhesive formulation can be a good potential candidate to use in wood-based panel industry with some developments.

Keywords: Wood adhesive, cornstarch, mimosa tannin, particleboard.

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77 The Mediating Effect of MSMEs Export Performance between Technological Advancement Capabilities and Business Performance

Authors: Fawad Hussain, Mohammad Basir Bin Saud, Mohd Azwardi Md Isa

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the mediating impact of export performance (EP) between technological advancement capabilities and business performance (BP) of Malaysian manufacturing micro, small and medium sized enterprises (MSME’s). Firm’s technological advancement resources are hypothesized as a platform to enhance both exports and BP of manufacturing MSMEs in Malaysia. This study is twofold, primary it has investigated that technological advancement capabilities helps to appreciates main performance measures noted in terms of EP and Secondly, it investigates that how efficiently and effectively technological advancement capabilities can contribute in overall Malaysian MSME’s BP. Smart PLS-3 statistical software is used to know the association between technological advancement capabilities, MSME’s EP and BP. In this study, the data was composed from Malaysian manufacturing MSME’s in east coast industrial zones known as the manufacturing hub of MSMEs. Seven hundred and fifty (750) questionnaires were distributed, but only 148 usable questionnaires are returned. The finding of this study indicated that technological advancement capabilities helps to strengthen the export in term of time and cost efficient and it plays a significant role in appreciating their BP. This study is helpful for small and medium enterprise owners who intend to expand their business overseas and though smart technological advancement resources they can achieve their business competitiveness and excellence both at local and international markets.

Keywords: Technological advancement capabilities, export performance, business performance, small and medium manufacturing enterprises, Malaysia.

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76 Web-Content Analysis of the Major Spanish Tourist Destinations Evaluation by Russian Tourists

Authors: Natalia Polkanova, Sergey Kazakov

Abstract:

In the second decade of the XXI century the role of tourism destination attractiveness is becoming increasingly important for destination management. Competition in tourism market moves from ordinary service quality to provision of unforgettable emotional experience for tourists. The main purpose of the present study is to identify the perception of the tourism destinations based on the number of factors related to its tourist attractiveness. The content analysis method was used to analyze the on-line tourist feedback data immensely available in Social Media and in travel related sites. The collected data made it possible to procure the information which is necessary to understand the perceived attractiveness of the destinations and key destination appeal factors that are important for Russian leisure travelers. Results of the present study demonstrate key attractiveness factors or destination ‘properties’ that were unveiled as the most important for Russian leisure tourists. The study targeted five main Spanish tourism destinations that initially were determined by in-depth interview with a number of Russian nationals who had visited Spain at least once. The research results can be useful for Spanish Tourism Organization Representation office in Russia as well as for the other national tourism organizations in order to promote their respective destinations for Russian travelers focusing on main attractiveness factors identified in this study.

Keywords: Tourism destination, destination attractiveness, destination competitiveness, content analysis, unstructured image.

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75 Comparative Study in Dentinal Tubuli Occlusion Using Bioglass and Copper-Bromide Laser

Authors: Sun Woo Lee, Tae Bum Lee, Yoon Hwa Park, Yoo Jeong Kim

Abstract:

Cervical dentinal hypersensitivity (CDH) affects 8-30% of adults and nearly 85% of perio-treated patients. Various treatment schemes have been applied for treating CDH, among them being fluoride application, laser irradiation, and, recently, bioglass. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of bioglass, copper-bromide (Cu-Br) laser irradiation and their combination on dentinal tubule occlusion as a potential dentinal hypersensitivity treatment for CDH. 45 human dentin surfaces were organized into three equal groups: group A received Cu-Br laser only; group B received bioglass only; group C received bioglass followed by Cu-Br laser irradiation. Specimens were evaluated with regard to dentinal tubule occlusion under environmental scanning electron microscope. Treatment modality significantly affected dentinal tubule occlusion (p<0.001). Groups B and C scored higher dentinal tubule occlusion than group A. Binary logistic regression showed that bioglass application significantly (p<0.001) contributed to dentinal tubule occlusion, compared with other variables. Under the conditions used herein and within the limitations of this study, bioglass application, alone or combined with Cu-Br laser irradiation, is a superior method for producing dentinal tubule occlusion, and may lead to an effective treatment modality for CDH.

Keywords: Bioglass, Cu-Br laser, cervical dentinal hypersensitivity, dentinal tubule occlusion.

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74 Creating Shared Value: A Paradigm Shift from Corporate Social Responsibility to Creating Shared Value

Authors: Bolanle Deborah Motilewa, E.K. Rowland Worlu, Gbenga Mayowa Agboola, Marvellous Aghogho Chidinma Gberevbie

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Businesses operating in the modern business world are faced with varying challenges; amongst which is the need to ensure that they are performing their societal function of being responsible in the society in which they operate. This responsibility to society is generally termed as corporate social responsibility. For many years, the practice of corporate social responsibility (CSR) was solely philanthropic, where organizations gave ‘charity’ or ‘alms’ to society, without any link to the organization’s mission and objectives. However, there has arisen a shift in the application of CSR from an act of philanthropy to a strategy with a business model engaged in by organizations to create a win-win situation of performing their societal obligation, whilst simultaneously performing their economic obligation. In more recent times, the term has moved from CSR to creating shared value, which is simply corporate policies and practices that enhance the competitiveness of a business organization while simultaneously advancing social and economic conditions in the communities in which the company operates. Creating shared value has in more recent light found more meaning in underdeveloped countries, faced with deep societal challenges that businesses can solve whilst creating economic value. This study thus reviews literature on CSR, conceptualizing the shift to creating shared value and finally viewing its potential significance in Africa’s development.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, shared value, Africapitalism.

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73 A Resource Survey of Lateritic Soils and Impact Evaluation toward Community Members Living Nearby the Excavation Pits

Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: Lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

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72 A Hybrid Feature Selection by Resampling, Chi squared and Consistency Evaluation Techniques

Authors: Amir-Massoud Bidgoli, Mehdi Naseri Parsa

Abstract:

In this paper a combined feature selection method is proposed which takes advantages of sample domain filtering, resampling and feature subset evaluation methods to reduce dimensions of huge datasets and select reliable features. This method utilizes both feature space and sample domain to improve the process of feature selection and uses a combination of Chi squared with Consistency attribute evaluation methods to seek reliable features. This method consists of two phases. The first phase filters and resamples the sample domain and the second phase adopts a hybrid procedure to find the optimal feature space by applying Chi squared, Consistency subset evaluation methods and genetic search. Experiments on various sized datasets from UCI Repository of Machine Learning databases show that the performance of five classifiers (Naïve Bayes, Logistic, Multilayer Perceptron, Best First Decision Tree and JRIP) improves simultaneously and the classification error for these classifiers decreases considerably. The experiments also show that this method outperforms other feature selection methods.

Keywords: feature selection, resampling, reliable features, Consistency Subset Evaluation.

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71 Research Action Fields at the Nexus of Digital Transformation and Supply Chain Management: Findings from Practitioner Focus Group Workshops

Authors: Brandtner Patrick, Staberhofer Franz

Abstract:

Logistics and Supply Chain Management are of crucial importance for organisational success. In the era of Digitalization, several implications and improvement potentials for these domains arise, which at the same time could lead to decreased competitiveness and could endanger long-term company success if ignored or neglected. However, empirical research on the issue of Digitalization and benefits purported to it by practitioners is scarce and mainly focused on single technologies or separate, isolated Supply Chain blocks as e.g. distribution logistics or procurement only. The current paper applies a holistic focus group approach to elaborate practitioner use cases at the nexus of the concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Digitalization. In the course of three focus group workshops with over 45 participants from more than 20 organisations, a comprehensive set of benefit entitlements and areas for improvement in terms of applying digitalization to SCM is developed. The main results of the paper indicate the relevance of Digitalization being realized in practice. In the form of seventeen concrete research action fields, the benefit entitlements are aggregated and transformed into potential starting points for future research projects in this area. The main contribution of this paper is an empirically grounded basis for future research projects and an overview of actual research action fields from practitioners’ point of view.

Keywords: Digital transformation, supply chain management, digital supply chain, value networks.

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70 Drivers of Land Degradation in Trays Ecosystem as Modulated under a Changing Climate: Case Study of Côte d'Ivoire

Authors: Kadio Valere R. Angaman, Birahim Bouna Niang

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Land degradation is a serious problem in developing countries including Cote d’Ivoire, which has its economy focused on agriculture. It occurs in all kinds of ecosystems over the world. However, the drivers of land degradation vary from one region to another, and from one ecosystem to another. Thus, identifying these drivers is an essential prerequisite to develop and implement appropriate policies to reverse the trend of land degradation in the country, especially in the trays ecosystem. Using the binary logistic model with primary data obtained through 780 farmers surveyed, we analyze and identify the drivers of land degradation in the trays ecosystem. The descriptive statistics show that 52% of farmers interviewed have stated facing land degradation in their farmland. This high rate shows the extent of land degradation in this ecosystem. Also, the results obtained from the binary logit regression reveal that land degradation is significantly influenced by a set of variables such as sex, education, slope, erosion, pesticide, agricultural activity, deforestation, and temperature. The drivers identified are mostly local, as a result, the government must implement some policies and strategies that facilitate and incentive the adoption of sustainable land management practices by farmers to reverse the negative trend of land degradation.

Keywords: Drivers, land degradation, trays ecosystem, sustainable land management.

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69 Environmental Management of the Tanning Industry's Supply Chain: An Integration Model from Lean Supply Chain, Green Supply Chain, Cleaner Production and ISO 14001:2004

Authors: N. Clavijo Buriticá, L. M. Correa Lópezand J. R., Sánchez Rodríguez

Abstract:

The environmental impact caused by industries is an issue that, in the last 20 years, has become very important in terms of society, economics and politics in Colombia. Particularly, the tannery process is extremely polluting because of uneffective treatments and regulations given to the dumping process and atmospheric emissions. Considering that, this investigation is intended to propose a management model based on the integration of Lean Supply Chain, Green Supply Chain, Cleaner Production and ISO 14001-2004, that prioritizes the strategic components of the organizations. As a result, a management model will be obtained and it will provide a strategic perspective through a systemic approach to the tanning process. This will be achieved through the use of Multicriteria Decision tools, along with Quality Function Deployment and Fuzzy Logic. The strategic approach that embraces the management model using the alignment of Lean Supply Chain, Green Supply Chain, Cleaner Production and ISO 14001-2004, is an integrated perspective that allows a gradual frame of the tactical and operative elements through the correct setting of the information flow, improving the decision making process. In that way, Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) could improve their productivity, competitiveness and as an added value, the minimization of the environmental impact. This improvement is expected to be controlled through a Dashboard that helps the Organization measure its performance along the implementation of the model in its productive process.

Keywords: Integration, environmental impact, management, systemic organization.

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68 Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil

Abstract:

There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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67 Advancement of Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Technologies through Integrated Applications and Alternative Systems

Authors: S. Doyle, G. A. Aggidis

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Wave energy converter technologies continue to show good progress in worldwide research. One of the most researched technologies, the Oscillating Water Column (OWC), is arguably one of the most popular categories within the converter technologies due to its robustness, simplicity and versatility. However, the versatility of the OWC is still largely untapped with most deployments following similar trends with respect to applications and operating systems. As the competitiveness of the energy market continues to increase, the demand for wave energy technologies to be innovative also increases. For existing wave energy technologies, this requires identifying areas to diversify for lower costs of energy with respect to applications and synergies or integrated systems. This paper provides a review of all OWCs systems integrated into alternative applications in the past and present. The aspects and variation in their design, deployment and system operation are discussed. Particular focus is given to the Multi-OWCs (M-OWCs) and their great potential to increase capture on a larger scale, especially in synergy applications. It is made clear that these steps need to be taken in order to make wave energy a competitive and viable option in the renewable energy mix as progression to date shows that stand alone single function devices are not economical. Findings reveal that the trend of development is moving toward these integrated applications in order to reduce the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) and will ultimately continue in this direction in efforts to make wave energy a competitive option in the renewable energy mix.

Keywords: Ocean energy, wave energy, oscillating water column, renewable energy, review.

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66 Identifying the Barriers behind the Lack of Six Sigma Use in Libyan Manufacturing Companies

Authors: Osama Elgadi, Martin Birkett, Wai Ming Cheung

Abstract:

This paper investigates the barriers behind the underutilisation of six sigma in Libyan manufacturing companies (LMCs). A mixed-method methodology is proposed, starting by conducting interviews to collect qualitative data followed by the development of a questionnaire to obtain quantitative data. The focus of this paper is on discussing the findings of the interview stage and how these can be used to further develop the questionnaire stage. The interview results showed that only four key barriers were highlighted as being encountered by LMCs. With a difference in terms of their significance, these factors were identified, and placed in descending order according to their importance, namely: “Lack of top management commitment”, “Lack of training”, “Lack of knowledge about six sigma”, and “Culture effect”. The findings also showed that some barriers which, were found in previous studies of six sigma implementation were not considered as barriers to LMCs but can, in fact, be considered as success factors or enablers for six sigma adoption. These factors were identified as: “sufficiency of time and financial resources”; “customers unsatisfied”; “good communication between all departments in the company”; “we are certain about its results and benefits to our company and unhappy with the current quality system”. These results suggest that LMCs face fewer barriers to adopting six sigma than many well-established global companies operating in other countries and could take advantage of these successful factors by developing and implementing a six sigma framework to improve their product quality and competitiveness.

Keywords: Six sigma, barriers, Libyan manufacturing companies, interview.

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65 Digital Manufacturing: Evolution and a Process Oriented Approach to Align with Business Strategy

Authors: Abhimanyu Pati, Prabir K. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

The paper intends to highlight the significance of Digital Manufacturing (DM) strategy in support and achievement of business strategy and goals of any manufacturing organization. Towards this end, DM initiatives have been given a process perspective, while not undermining its technological significance, with a view to link its benefits directly with fulfilment of customer needs and expectations in a responsive and cost-effective manner. A digital process model has been proposed to categorize digitally enabled organizational processes with a view to create synergistic groups, which adopt and use digital tools having similar characteristics and functionalities. This will throw future opportunities for researchers and developers to create a unified technology environment for integration and orchestration of processes. Secondly, an effort has been made to apply “what” and “how” features of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) framework to establish the relationship between customers’ needs – both for external and internal customers, and the features of various digital processes, which support for the achievement of these customer expectations. The paper finally concludes that in the present highly competitive environment, business organizations cannot thrive to sustain unless they understand the significance of digital strategy and integrate it with their business strategy with a clearly defined implementation roadmap. A process-oriented approach to DM strategy will help business executives and leaders to appreciate its value propositions and its direct link to organization’s competitiveness.

Keywords: Digital manufacturing, digital process model, quality function deployment, business strategy.

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64 A Preliminary Literature Review of Digital Transformation Case Studies

Authors: Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Lucija Ivančić, Dalia Suša Vugec

Abstract:

While struggling to succeed in today’s complex market environment and provide better customer experience and services, enterprises encompass digital transformation as a means for reaching competitiveness and foster value creation. A digital transformation process consists of information technology implementation projects, as well as organizational factors such as top management support, digital transformation strategy, and organizational changes. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is little evidence about digital transformation endeavors in organizations and how they perceive it – is it only about digital technologies adoption or a true organizational shift is needed? In order to address this issue and as the first step in our research project, a literature review is conducted. The analysis included case study papers from Scopus and Web of Science databases. The following attributes are considered for classification and analysis of papers: time component; country of case origin; case industry and; digital transformation concept comprehension, i.e. focus. Research showed that organizations – public, as well as private ones, are aware of change necessity and employ digital transformation projects. Also, the changes concerning digital transformation affect both manufacturing and service-based industries. Furthermore, we discovered that organizations understand that besides technologies implementation, organizational changes must also be adopted. However, with only 29 relevant papers identified, research positioned digital transformation as an unexplored and emerging phenomenon in information systems research. The scarcity of evidence-based papers calls for further examination of this topic on cases from practice.

Keywords: Digital strategy, digital technologies, digital transformation, literature review.

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63 Impact of Ship Traffic to PM2.5 and Particle Number Concentrations in Three Port-Cities of the Adriatic/Ionian Area

Authors: Daniele Contini, Antonio Donateo, Andrea Gambaro, Athanasios Argiriou, Dimitrios Melas, Daniela Cesari, Anastasia Poupkou, Athanasios Karagiannidis, Apostolos Tsakis, Eva Merico, Rita Cesari, Adelaide Dinoi

Abstract:

Emissions of atmospheric pollutants from ships and harbour activities are a growing concern at international level given their potential impacts on air quality and climate. These close-to-land emissions have potential impact on local communities in terms of air quality and health. Recent studies show that the impact of maritime traffic to atmospheric particulate matter concentrations in several coastal urban areas is comparable with the impact of road traffic of a medium size town. However, several different approaches have been used for these estimates making difficult a direct comparison of results. In this work, an integrated approach based on emission inventories and dedicated measurement campaigns has been applied to give a comparable estimate of the impact of maritime traffic to PM2.5 and particle number concentrations in three major harbours of the Adriatic/Ionian Seas. The influences of local meteorology and of the logistic layout of the harbours are discussed.

Keywords: Ship emissions, PM2.5, particle number concentrations, impact of shipping to atmospheric aerosol.

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62 Multi-matrix Real-coded Genetic Algorithm for Minimising Total Costs in Logistics Chain Network

Authors: Pupong Pongcharoen, Aphirak Khadwilard, Anothai Klakankhai

Abstract:

The importance of supply chain and logistics management has been widely recognised. Effective management of the supply chain can reduce costs and lead times and improve responsiveness to changing customer demands. This paper proposes a multi-matrix real-coded Generic Algorithm (MRGA) based optimisation tool that minimises total costs associated within supply chain logistics. According to finite capacity constraints of all parties within the chain, Genetic Algorithm (GA) often produces infeasible chromosomes during initialisation and evolution processes. In the proposed algorithm, chromosome initialisation procedure, crossover and mutation operations that always guarantee feasible solutions were embedded. The proposed algorithm was tested using three sizes of benchmarking dataset of logistic chain network, which are typical of those faced by most global manufacturing companies. A half fractional factorial design was carried out to investigate the influence of alternative crossover and mutation operators by varying GA parameters. The analysis of experimental results suggested that the quality of solutions obtained is sensitive to the ways in which the genetic parameters and operators are set.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Logistics, Optimisation, Supply Chain.

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61 An Application for Risk of Crime Prediction Using Machine Learning

Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: Crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city.

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60 Contamination in Industrial Areas and Environmental Management in Latvia

Authors: Juris Burlakovs, Maris Klavins, Raimonds Ernsteins, Armands Ruskulis

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Environmental contamination is a common problem in ex-industrial and industrial sites. This article gives a brief description of general applied environmental investigation methodologies and possible remediation applications in Latvia. Most of contaminated areas are situated in former and active industrial, military areas and ports. Industrial and logistic activities very often have been with great impact for more than hundred years thus the contamination level with heavy metals, hydrocarbons, pesticides, persistent organic pollutants is high and is threatening health and environment in general. 242 territories now are numbered as contaminated and fixed in the National Register of contaminated territories in Latvia. Research and remediation of contamination in densely populated areas are of important environmental policy domain. Four different investigation case studies of contaminated areas are given describing the history of use, environmental quality assessment as well as planned environmental management actions. All four case study locations are situated in Riga - the capital of the Republic of Latvia. The aim of this paper is to analyze the situation and problems with management of contaminated areas in Latvia, give description of field research methods and recommendations for remediation industry based on scientific data and innovations.

Keywords: Remediation technology, environmental quality assessment, heavy metals, hydrocarbon contamination, environmental management.

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59 Evaluation of Medication Administration Process in a Paediatric Ward

Authors: Zayed N. Alsulami, Asma F. Aldosseri, Ahmed S. Ezziden, Abdulrahman K. Alonazi

Abstract:

Children are more susceptible to medication errors than adults. Medication administration process is the last stage in the medication treatment process and most of the errors detected in this stage. Little research has been undertaken about medication errors in children in the Middle East countries. This study was aimed to evaluate how the paediatric nurses adhere to the medication administration policy and also to identify any medication preparation and administration errors or any risk factors. An observational, prospective study of medication administration process from when the nurses preparing patient medication until administration stage (May to August 2014) was conducted in Saudi Arabia. Twelve paediatric nurses serving 90 paediatric patients were observed. 456 drug administered doses were evaluated. Adherence rate was variable in 7 steps out of 16 steps. Patient allergy information, dose calculation, drug expiry date were the steps in medication administration with lowest adherence rates. 63 medication preparation and administration errors were identified with error rate 13.8% of medication administrations. No potentially life-threating errors were witnessed. Few logistic and administrative factors were reported. The results showed that the medication administration policy and procedure need an urgent revision to be more sensible for nurses in practice. Nurses’ knowledge and skills regarding to the medication administration process should be improved.

Keywords: Double checking, Medication administration errors, Medication safety, Nurses.

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58 Selection of Designs in Ordinal Regression Models under Linear Predictor Misspecification

Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.

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57 Clinical Utility of Salivary Cytokines for Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Authors: Masaki Yamaguchi, Daimei Sasayama, Shinsuke Washizuka

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to examine the possibility of salivary cytokines for the screening of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children. We carried out a case-control study, including 19 children with ADHD and 17 healthy children (controls). A multiplex bead array immunoassay was used to conduct a multi-analysis of 27 different salivary cytokines. Six salivary cytokines (interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-8, IL12p70, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interferon gamma (IFN-γ), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)) were significantly associated with the presence of ADHD (p < 0.05). An informative salivary cytokine panel was developed using VEGF by logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 0.251). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that assessment of a panel using VEGF showed “good” capability for discriminating between ADHD patients and controls (area under the curve: 0.778). ADHD has been hypothesized to be associated with reduced cerebral blood flow in the frontal cortex, due to reduced VEGF levels. Our study highlights the possibility of utilizing differential salivary cytokine levels for point-of-care testing (POCT) of biomarkers in children with ADHD.

Keywords: Cytokine, saliva, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, child, biomarker.

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56 Ensemble Approach for Predicting Student's Academic Performance

Authors: L. A. Muhammad, M. S. Argungu

Abstract:

Educational data mining (EDM) has recorded substantial considerations. Techniques of data mining in one way or the other have been proposed to dig out out-of-sight knowledge in educational data. The result of the study got assists academic institutions in further enhancing their process of learning and methods of passing knowledge to students. Consequently, the performance of students boasts and the educational products are by no doubt enhanced. This study adopted a student performance prediction model premised on techniques of data mining with Students' Essential Features (SEF). SEF are linked to the learner's interactivity with the e-learning management system. The performance of the student's predictive model is assessed by a set of classifiers, viz. Bayes Network, Logistic Regression, and Reduce Error Pruning Tree (REP). Consequently, ensemble methods of Bagging, Boosting, and Random Forest (RF) are applied to improve the performance of these single classifiers. The study reveals that the result shows a robust affinity between learners' behaviors and their academic attainment. Result from the study shows that the REP Tree and its ensemble record the highest accuracy of 83.33% using SEF. Hence, in terms of the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC), boosting method of REP Tree records 0.903, which is the best. This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, bagging, Random Forest, boosting, data mining, classifiers, machine learning.

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55 Predictive Analytics of Student Performance Determinants in Education

Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

Abstract:

Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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54 Development of Sports Nation on the Way of Health Management

Authors: Beatrix Faragó, Zsolt Szakály, Ágnes Kovácsné Tóth, Csaba Konczos, Norbert Kovács, Zsófia Pápai, Tamás Kertész

Abstract:

The future of the nation is the embodiment of a healthy society. A key segment of government policy is the development of health and a health-oriented environment. As a result, sport as an activator of health is an important area for development. In Hungary, sport is a strategic sector with the aim of developing a sports nation. The function of sport in the global society is multifaceted, which is manifested in both social and economic terms. The economic importance of sport is gaining ground in the world, with implications for Central and Eastern Europe. Smaller states, such as Hungary, cannot ignore the economic effects of exploiting the effects of sport. The relationship between physical activity and health is driven by the health economy towards the nation's economic factor. In our research, we analyzed sport as a national strategy sector and its impact on age groups. By presenting the current state of health behavior, we get an idea of the directions where development opportunities require even more intervention. The foundation of the health of a nation is the young age group, whose shaping of health will shape the future generation. Our research was attended by university students from the Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences who will be experts in the field of health in the future. The other group is the elderly, who are a growing social group due to demographic change and are a key segment of the labor market and consumer society. Our study presents the health behavior of the two age groups, their differences, and similarities. The survey also identifies gaps in the development of a health management strategy that national strategies should take into account.

Keywords: Competitiveness, health behavior, health economy, health management, sports nation.

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53 Prediction of Air-Water Two-Phase Frictional Pressure Drop Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: H. B. Mehta, Vipul M. Patel, Jyotirmay Banerjee

Abstract:

The present paper discusses the prediction of gas-liquid two-phase frictional pressure drop in a 2.12 mm horizontal circular minichannel using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The experimental results are obtained with air as gas phase and water as liquid phase. The superficial gas velocity is kept in the range of 0.0236 m/s to 0.4722 m/s while the values of 0.0944 m/s, 0.1416 m/s and 0.1889 m/s are considered for superficial liquid velocity. The experimental results are predicted using different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Networks used for prediction are radial basis, generalised regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation, feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent, and Elman back propagation. Transfer functions used for networks are Linear (PURELIN), Logistic sigmoid (LOGSIG), tangent sigmoid (TANSIG) and Gaussian RBF. Combination of networks and transfer functions give different possible neural network models. These models are compared for Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD) and Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) to identify the best predictive model of ANN.

Keywords: Minichannel, Two-Phase Flow, Frictional Pressure Drop, ANN, MARD, MRD.

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52 Recommender Systems Using Ensemble Techniques

Authors: Yeonjeong Lee, Kyoung-jae Kim, Youngtae Kim

Abstract:

This study proposes a novel recommender system that uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user’s preference. The proposed model consists of two steps. In the first step, this study uses logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. Then, this study combines the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. In the second step, this study uses the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. Finally, the system selects customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group and recommends proper products from same or different product groups to them through above two steps. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Keywords: Product recommender system, Ensemble technique, Association rules, Decision tree, Artificial neural networks.

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51 Networks in the Tourism Sector in Brazil: Proposal of a Management Model Applied to Tourism Clusters

Authors: Gysele Lima Ricci, Jose Miguel Rodriguez Anton

Abstract:

Companies in the tourism sector need to achieve competitive advantages for their survival in the market. In this way, the models based on association, cooperation, complementarity, distribution, exchange and mutual assistance arise as a possibility of organizational development, taking as reference the concept of networks. Many companies seek to partner in local networks as clusters to act together and associate. The main objective of the present research is to identify the specificities of management and the practices of cooperation in the tourist destination of São Paulo - Brazil, and to propose a new management model with possible cluster of tourism. The empirical analysis was carried out in three phases. As a first phase, a research was made by the companies, associations and tourism organizations existing in São Paulo, analyzing the characteristics of their business. In the second phase, the management specificities and cooperation practice used in the tourist destination. And in the third phase, identifying the possible strengths and weaknesses that potential or potential tourist cluster could have, proposing the development of the management model of the same adapted to the needs of the companies, associations and organizations. As a main result, it has been identified that companies, associations and organizations could be looking for synergies with each other and collaborate through a Hiperred organizational structure, in which they share their knowledge, try to make the most of the collaboration and to benefit from three concepts: flexibility, learning and collaboration. Finally, it is concluded that, the proposed tourism cluster management model is viable for the development of tourism destinations because it makes it possible to strategically address agents which are responsible for public policies, as well as public and private companies and organizations in their strategies competitiveness and cooperation.

Keywords: Cluster, management model, networks, tourism sector.

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