Search results for: load/stress distribution

Authors: R. Nagendra Babu, K. V. Ramana, K. Mallikarjuna Rao

Abstract:

Stress Concentration Factors are significant in machine design as it gives rise to localized stress when any change in the design of surface or abrupt change in the cross section occurs. Almost all machine components and structural members contain some form of geometrical or microstructural discontinuities. These discontinuities are very dangerous and lead to failure. So, it is very much essential to analyze the stress concentration factors for critical applications like Turbine Rotors. In this paper Finite Element Analysis (FEA) with extremely fine mesh in the vicinity of the blades of Steam Turbine Rotor is applied to determine stress concentration factors. A model of Steam Turbine Rotor is shown in Fig. 1.

Keywords: Stress Concentration Factors, Finite Element Analysis, and ANSYS.

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Authors: Mohd Herwan Sulaiman, Omar Aliman, Siti Rafidah Abdul Rahim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new methodology for the optimal allocation and sizing of Embedded Generation (EG) employing Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) to minimize the total power losses and to improve voltage profiles in the radial distribution networks. RCGA is a method that uses continuous floating numbers as representation which is different from conventional binary numbers. The RCGA is used as solution tool, which can determine the optimal location and size of EG in radial system simultaneously. This method is developed in MATLAB. The effect of EG units- installation and their sizing to the distribution networks are demonstrated using 24 bus system.

Keywords: Embedded generation (EG), load flow study, optimal allocation, real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA).

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Authors: Abhishek Soni, Bhagat Singh

Abstract:

Perfect restoration of fractured distal femur has been a challenging task for the medical practitioners. In the present study, model of a fractured bone has been created using the scan data of the damaged bone. Thereafter, customized implant of Stainless Steel (SS-316L) for this fractured femur bone is modeled using the reverse engineering approach. Clinical set-up is prepared by assembling all the models together. Stress and deformation analysis of this clinical set-up has been performed in order to check the load bearing capacity and intactness of the joint. From this analysis, it has been inferred that the stresses and deformation developed due to the static load of the person is within the permissible limits.

Keywords: Biomechanical evaluations, customized implant, reverse engineering, stainless steel alloy.

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Authors: Anurag Jain, Rajneesh Kumar

Abstract:

Cloud computing is the outcome of rapid growth of internet. Due to elastic nature of cloud computing and unpredictable behavior of user, load balancing is the major issue in cloud computing paradigm. An efficient load balancing technique can improve the performance in terms of efficient resource utilization and higher customer satisfaction. Load balancing can be implemented through task scheduling, resource allocation and task migration. Various parameters to analyze the performance of load balancing approach are response time, cost, data processing time and throughput. This paper demonstrates a two level load balancer approach by combining join idle queue and join shortest queue approach. Authors have used cloud analyst simulator to test proposed two level load balancer approach. The results are analyzed and compared with the existing algorithms and as observed, proposed work is one step ahead of existing techniques.

Keywords: Cloud Analyst, Cloud Computing, Join Idle Queue, Join Shortest Queue, Load balancing, Task Scheduling.

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Authors: Sun-Ki Hong, Nam-HeeByeon, Jung-Seop Lee, Tae-Sam Kang

Abstract:

For Common R or R-L load to apply arbitrary voltage, the bridge traditional inverters don’t have any difficulties by PWM method. However for driving some piezoelectric actuator, arbitrary voltage not a pulse but a steady voltage should be applied. Piezoelectric load is considered as R-C load and its voltage does not decrease even though the applied voltage decreases. Therefore it needs some special inverter with circuit that can discharge the capacitive energy. Especially for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving like as sine wave, it becomes more difficult problem. In this paper, a charge and discharge circuit for unidirectional arbitrary voltage driving for piezoelectric actuator is proposed. The circuit has charging and discharging switches for increasing and decreasing output voltage. With the proposed simple circuit, the load voltage can have any unidirectional level with tens of bandwidth because the load voltage can be adjusted by switching the charging and discharging switch appropriately. The appropriateness is proved from the simulation of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, analog output voltage, sinusoidal drive, piezoelectric load, discharging circuit.

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Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

Abstract:

Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: Distribution network, gas cylinder, Jordan, supply chain.

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Authors: Yakup Sahin, Naim Suleyman Ting, Ismail Aksoy

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved active snubber cell is proposed on account of soft switching (SS) family of pulse width modulation (PWM) DC-DC converters. The improved snubber cell provides zero-voltage transition (ZVT) turn on and zero-current transition (ZCT) turn off for main switch. The snubber cell decreases EMI noise and operates with SS in a wide range of line and load voltages. Besides, all of the semiconductor devices in the converter operate with SS. There is no additional voltage and current stress on the main devices. Additionally, extra voltage stress does not occur on the auxiliary switch and its current stress is acceptable value. The improved converter has a low cost and simple structure. The theoretical analysis of converter is clarified and the operating states are given in detail. The experimental results of converter are obtained by prototype of 500 W and 100 kHz. It is observed that the experimental results and theoretical analysis of converter are suitable with each other perfectly.

Keywords: Active snubber cells, DC-DC converters, zero-voltage transition, zero-current transition.

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Authors: G. Balogh, I. A. Szabó, P. Z. Kovács

Abstract:

Mechanical stress has a strong effect on the magnitude of the Barkhausen-noise in structural steels. Because the measurements are performed at the surface of the material, for a sample sheet, the full effect can be described by a biaxial stress field. The measured Barkhausen-noise is dependent on the orientation of the exciting magnetic field relative to the axis of the stress tensor. The sample inhomogenities including the residual stress also modifies the angular dependence of the measured Barkhausen-noise. We have developed a laboratory device with a cross like specimen for bi-axial bending. The measuring head allowed performing excitations in two orthogonal directions. We could excite the two directions independently or simultaneously with different amplitudes. The simultaneous excitation of the two coils could be performed in phase or with a 90 degree phase shift. In principle this allows to measure the Barkhausen-noise at an arbitrary direction without moving the head, or to measure the Barkhausen-noise induced by a rotating magnetic field if a linear superposition of the two fields can be assumed.

Keywords: Barkhausen-noise, Bi-axial stress, Stress dependency, Stress measuring.

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Authors: Didik Nurhadiyanto , Moch Agus Choiron , Ken Kaminishi , Shigeyuki Haruyama

Abstract:

At the previous study of new metal gasket, contact width and contact stress were important design parameter for optimizing metal gasket performance. However, the range of contact stress had not been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we conducted a gasket design optimization based on an elastic and plastic contact stress analysis considering forming effect using FEM. The gasket model was simulated by using two simulation stages which is forming and tightening simulation. The optimum design based on an elastic and plastic contact stress was founded. Final evaluation was determined by helium leak quantity to check leakage performance of both type of gaskets. The helium leak test shows that a gasket based on the plastic contact stress design better than based on elastic stress design.

Keywords: Contact stress, metal gasket, plastic, elastic

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Authors: K. Al Ammari, B. G. Clarke

Abstract:

Soil improvement using vibro stone column techniques consists of two main parts: (1) the installed load bearing columns of well-compacted, coarse-grained material and (2) the improvements to the surrounding soil due to vibro compaction. Extensive research work has been carried out over the last 20 years to understand the improvement in the composite foundation performance due to the second part mentioned above. Nevertheless, few of these studies have tried to quantify some of the key design parameters, namely the changes in the stiffness and stress state of the treated soil, or have consider these parameters in the design and calculation process. Consequently, empirical and conservative design methods are still being used by ground improvement companies with a significant variety of results in engineering practice. Two-dimensional finite element study to develop an axisymmetric model of a single stone column reinforced foundation was performed using PLAXIS 2D AE to quantify the effect of the vibro installation of this column in soft saturated clay. Settlement and bearing performance were studied as an essential part of the design and calculation of the stone column foundation. Particular attention was paid to the large deformation in the soft clay around the installed column caused by the lateral expansion. So updated mesh advanced option was taken in the analysis. In this analysis, different degrees of stone column lateral expansions were simulated and numerically analyzed, and then the changes in the stress state, stiffness, settlement performance and bearing capacity were quantified. It was found that application of radial expansion will produce a horizontal stress in the soft clay mass that gradually decrease as the distance from the stone column axis increases. The excess pore pressure due to the undrained conditions starts to dissipate immediately after finishing the column installation, allowing the horizontal stress to relax. Changes in the coefficient of the lateral earth pressure K ٭, which is very important in representing the stress state, and the new stiffness distribution in the reinforced clay mass, were estimated. More encouraging results showed that increasing the expansion during column installation has a noticeable effect on improving the bearing capacity and reducing the settlement of reinforced ground, So, a design method should include this significant effect of the applied lateral displacement during the stone column instillation in simulation and numerical analysis design.

Keywords: Bearing capacity, design, Installation, numerical analysis, settlement, stone column.

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Authors: Václav Sadílek, Miroslav Vořechovský

Abstract:

The paper deals with the classical fiber bundle model of equal load sharing, sometimes referred to as the Daniels’ bundle or the democratic bundle. Daniels formulated a multidimensional integral and also a recursive formula for evaluation of the strength cumulative distribution function. This paper describes three algorithms for evaluation of the recursive formula and also their implementations with source codes in the Python high-level programming language. A comparison of the algorithms are provided with respect to execution time. Analysis of orders of magnitudes of addends in the recursion is also provided.

Keywords: Daniels bundle model, equal load sharing, Python, mpmath.

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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Authors: Abhishek Soni, Bhagat Singh

Abstract:

In the present work, reverse engineering approach has been used to create a 3D model of a fractured femur diaphysis bone using the computed tomography (CT) scan data. Thereafter, a counter fit fixation plate of polyetheretherketone (PEEK) composite has been designed and analyzed considering static physiological loading conditions. Static stress distribution and deformation analysis of the plate have been performed. From the analysis, it has been found that the stresses and deformation developed are quite low. This implies that these designed fixation plates will be able to provide stable fixation and thus resulting in improved fracture union.

Keywords: Customized implant, deformation, femur diaphysis, stress.

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Authors: L.Ramesh, S.P.Chowdhury, S.Chowdhury, A.A.Natarajan, C.T.Gaunt

Abstract:

Accurate loss minimization is the critical component for efficient electrical distribution power flow .The contribution of this work presents loss minimization in power distribution system through feeder restructuring, incorporating DG and placement of capacitor. The study of this work was conducted on IEEE distribution network and India Electricity Board benchmark distribution system. The executed experimental result of Indian system is recommended to board and implement practically for regulated stable output.

Keywords: Distribution system, Distributed Generation LossMinimization, Network Restructuring

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Authors: Kaliyaperumal Anandavel, Raghu V. Prakash, Antonio Davis

Abstract:

This paper presents the influence of preloading on a) the contact tractions, b) slip levels and c) stresses at the dovetail blade-disc interface of an aero-engine through a three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) modeling and analysis. The preloading is applied by an interference fit at the dovetail interface and the bulk loading is applied through the rotational speed of rotor. Preloading at the dovetail interface reduces the peak contact pressure developed due to bulk loading up to 35%, and reduces the peak contact pressure and stress difference between top and bottom contact edges. Increasing the level of preloading reduces the cyclic stress amplitude at the interface up to certain values of preload and as a consequence, an improvement in fatigue life could be expected. Fretting damage, due to vibration and wind milling effect during engine ground condition, can be minimized by preloading the dovetail interface.

Keywords: Dovetail interface, Preload, Interference fit, ContactStress, Fretting Fatigue.

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Authors: Amira M. Attia, Karim H. Youssef, Nabil H. Abbasy

Abstract:

Energy consumption schedule (ECS) technique shifts usage of loads from on peak hours and redistributes them throughout the day according to residents’ operating time preferences. This technique is used as form of indirect control from utility to improve the load curve and hence its load factor and reduce customer’s total electric bill as well. Similarly, load shifting technique achieves ECS purposes but as direct control form applied from utility. In this paper, ECS is simulated twice as optimal constrained mathematical formula, solved by using CVX program in MATLAB^® R2013b. First, it is utilized for single residential building with ten apartments to determine max allowable energy consumption per hour for each residential apartment. Then, it is used for single apartment with number of shiftable domestic devices, where operating schedule is deduced using previous simulation output results as constraints. The paper ends by giving differences between ECS technique and load shifting technique via literature and simulation. Based on results assessment, it will be shown whether using ECS or load shifting is more beneficial to both customer and utility.

Keywords: Energy consumption schedule, load shifting technique, comparison.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

Abstract:

This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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Authors: M. Shannag, A. Charif, S. Naser, F. Faisal, A. Karim

Abstract:

Structural lightweight concrete is used primarily to reduce the dead-load weight in concrete members such as floors in high-rise buildings and bridge decks. With given materials, it is generally desired to have the highest possible strength/unit weight ratio with the lowest cost of concrete. The work presented herein is part of an ongoing research project that investigates the properties of concrete mixes containing locally available Scoria lightweight aggregates and mineral admixtures. Properties considered included: workability, unit weight, compressive strength, and splitting tensile strength. Test results indicated that developing structural lightweight concretes (SLWC) using locally available Scoria lightweight aggregates and specific blends of silica fume and fly ash seems to be feasible. The stress-strain diagrams plotted for the structural LWC mixes developed in this investigation were comparable to a typical stress-strain diagram for normal weight concrete with relatively larger strain capacity at failure in case of LWC.

Keywords: Lightweight Concrete, Scoria, Stress, Strain, Silica fume, Fly Ash.

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Authors: Ehsan Shahrabian, Ali Soleymani

Abstract:

Several yield-based stress indices have been developed that may be more applicable to work on drought tolerance. In this study, we investigate possibility of using stress susceptibility index (SSI), tolerance index (TOL), yield stability index (YSI), yield index (YI), stress tolerance index (STI), geometric mean productivity (GMP), harmonic mean (HARM), mean productivity (MP) to identify genotypic performance of some maize cultivars under normal and stressed condition. The results indicate that it was possible to identify superior genotypes for drought tolerance based on their stress indices and generally SSI indices which showed the lowest negative correlation with dry matter yield can be used as the best index for maize breeding programs to introduce drought tolerant hybrids. It was found that SC 647 showed the best behavior under drought stress condition based on TOL and SSI. A higher STI, GMP, and HARM values were attained for ko_6. It can be suggested that ko₆ should be cultivated in moderate stressful environment of Iran.

Keywords: Index, productivity, stress, susceptibility tolerance, yield.

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Authors: Prabhat Ranjan Prem, B.H.Bharatkumar, Nagesh R Iyer

Abstract:

A research program is conducted to evaluate the mechanical properties of Ultra High Performance Concrete, target compressive strength at the age of 28 days being more than 150 MPa. The methodology to develop such mix has been explained. The material properties, mix design and curing regime are determined. The material attributes are understood by studying the stress strain behaviour of UHPC cylinders under uniaxial compressive loading. The load –crack mouth opening displacement (cmod) of UHPC beams, flexural strength and fracture energy was evaluated using third point loading test. Compressive strength and Split tensile strength results are determined to find out the compressive and tensile behaviour. Residual strength parameters are presented vividly explaining the flexural performance, toughness of concrete.Durability studies were also done to compare the effect of fibre to that of a control mix For all the studies the Mechanical properties were evaluated by varying the percentage and aspect ratio of steel fibres The results reflected that higher aspect ratio and fibre volume produced drastic changes in the cube strength, cylinder strength, post peak response, load-cmod, fracture energy flexural strength, split tensile strength, residual strength and durability. In regards to null application of UHPC in India, an initiative is undertaken to comprehend the mechanical behaviour of UHPC, which will be vital for longer run in commercialization for structural applications.

Keywords: Ultra High Performance Concrete, Reinforcement Index, Compressive Strength, Tensile Strength, Flexural Strength, Residual Strength, Fracture Energy, Stress-Strain Relationships, Load-Crack Mouth Opening Displacement and Durability.

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Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Analysis of reciprocating equipment piston rod leads to nonlinear elastic-plastic deformation analysis of rod with initial imperfection under axial dynamic load. In this paper a new and effective model and analytical formulations are presented to evaluate dynamic deformation and elastic-plastic stresses of reciprocating machine piston rod. This new method has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, elastic-plastic deformation and dynamic effects. Proposed method can be used for evaluation of piston rod performance for various reciprocating machines under different operation situations. Rod load curves and maximum allowable rod load are calculated with presented method for a refinery type reciprocating compressor. Useful recommendations and guidelines for rod load, rod load reversal and rod drop monitoring are also addressed.

Keywords: Deformation, Reciprocating Equipment, Rod.

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Authors: Muhammed Yousoof, Mohd Sapiyan, Khaja Kamaluddin

Abstract:

Learning programming is difficult for many learners. Some researches have found that the main difficulty relates to cognitive load. Cognitive overload happens in programming due to the nature of the subject which is intrinisicly over-bearing on the working memory. It happens due to the complexity of the subject itself. The problem is made worse by the poor instructional design methodology used in the teaching and learning process. Various efforts have been proposed to reduce the cognitive load, e.g. visualization softwares, part-program method etc. Use of many computer based systems have also been tried to tackle the problem. However, little success has been made to alleviate the problem. More has to be done to overcome this hurdle. This research attempts at understanding how cognitive load can be managed so as to reduce the problem of overloading. We propose a mechanism to measure the cognitive load during pre instruction, post instruction and in instructional stages of learning. This mechanism is used to help the instruction. As the load changes the instruction is made to adapt itself to ensure cognitive viability. This mechanism could be incorporated as a sub domain in the student model of various computer based instructional systems to facilitate the learning of programming.

Keywords: Cognitive load, Working memory, Cognitive Loadmeasurement.

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Authors: Chinnaiah Madduri, Raghu V. Prakash

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of corrosion fatigue crack growth behaviour of a Ni-Cr-Mn steel commonly used in marine applications. The effect of mechanical variables such as frequency and load ratio on fatigue crack growth rate at various stages has been studied using compact tension (C(T)) specimens along the rolling direction of steel plate under 3.5% saturated NaCl aqueous environment. The significance of crack closure on corrosion fatigue, and the validity of Elber-s empirical linear crack closure model with the ASTM compliance offset method have been examined. Fatigue crack growth rate is higher and threshold stress intensities are lower in aqueous environment compared to the lab air conditions. It is also observed that the crack growth rate increases at lower frequencies. The higher stress ratio promotes the crack growth. The effect of oxidization and corrosion pit formation is very less as the stress ratio is increased. It is observed that as stress ratios are increased, the Elber-s crack closure model agrees well with the crack closure estimated by the ASTM compliance offset method for tests conducted at 5Hz frequency compared to tests conducted at 1Hz in corrosive environment.

Keywords: Corrosion fatigue, oxide induced crack closure, Elber's crack closure, ASTM compliance offset method.

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Authors: Omer S. Mughieda

Abstract:

Two-dimensional finite element model was created in this work to investigate the stresses distribution within rock-like samples with offset open non-persistent joints under biaxial loading. The results of this study have explained the fracture mechanisms observed in tests on rock-like material with open non-persistent offset joints [1]. Finite element code SAP2000 was used to study the stresses distribution within the specimens. Four-nodded isoperimetric plain strain element with two degree of freedom per node, and the three-nodded constant strain triangular element with two degree of freedom per node were used in the present study.The results of the present study explained the formation of wing cracks at the tip of the joints for low confining stress as well as the formation of wing cracks at the middle of the joint for the higher confining stress. High shear stresses found in the numerical study at the tip of the joints explained the formation of secondary cracks at the tip of the joints in the experimental study. The study results coincide with the experimental observations which showed that for bridge inclination of 0o, the coalescence occurred due to shear failure and for bridge inclination of 90o the coalescence occurred due to tensile failure while for the other bridge inclinations coalescence occurred due to mixed tensile and shear failure.

Keywords: Finite element, open offset rock joint, SAP2000, biaxial loading.

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Authors: Bandula-Heva, T., Dhanasekar, M.

Abstract:

True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predicted plastic strains. Coupons obtained at varying depths of the railhead were, therefore, tested under axial tension and the strains were measured using strain gauges as well as an image analysis technique, known as the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The head hardened steel exhibit existence of three distinct zones of yield strength; the yield strength as the ratio of the average yield strength provided in the standard (σyr=780MPa) and the corresponding depth as the ratio of the head hardened zone along the axis of symmetry are as follows: (1.17 σyr, 20%), (1.06 σyr, 20%-80%) and (0.71 σyr, > 80%). The stress-strain curves exhibit limited plastic zone with fracture occurring at strain less than 0.1.

Keywords: Stress-Strain Curve, Tensile Test, Particle Image Velocimetry, Railhead Metal Properties

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Authors: S. B. Mansuri

Abstract:

In this paper, at first we explain about negative hypergeometric distribution and its properties. Then we use the w-function and the Stein identity to give a result on the poisson approximation to the negative hypergeometric distribution in terms of the total variation distance between the negative hypergeometric and poisson distributions and its upper bound.

Keywords: Negative hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, Poisson approximation, Stein-Chen identity, w-function.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi, Parvin Baradaran Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.

Keywords: stable distribution, SaS, infinite variance, heavy tail networks, VaR.

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Authors: Soheil Karimi, Abbas Yadollahi, Kazem Arzani, Ali Imani

Abstract:

This study was conducted to evaluate the response of almond genotypes to osmotic stress in vitro in order to screen drought tolerance. Explants subjected to polyethyleneglycol osmotic stress (0, 3.5, and 7.0% WV) on the MS medium. Concentrations of photosynthesis pigments, anthocyanins, and carothenoids were significantly reduced under osmotic stress. Under osmotic stress, leaf water content, cellular membrane stability and pigments concentrations were significantly higher in the leaves of drought tolerant genotypes. The results revealed that carotenoids and anthocyanins may act as photoprotectant compounds in almond leaves and involved in drought tolerance system of the plant.

Keywords: Almond, Anthocianins, Carotenoids, in vitro; Leaf Osmotic Stress, Leaf Pigments, Polyethylene Glycol.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: P. Waiyawuththanapoom

Abstract:

This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: Distribution, Court Doll, Ang Thong Province.

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