Search results for: lagged variables
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1200

Search results for: lagged variables

1170 A New Source Code Auditing Algorithm for Detecting LFI and RFI in PHP Programs

Authors: Seyed Ali Mir Heydari, Mohsen Sayadiharikandeh

Abstract:

Static analysis of source code is used for auditing web applications to detect the vulnerabilities. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to analyze the PHP source code for detecting LFI and RFI potential vulnerabilities. In our approach, we first define some patterns for finding some functions which have potential to be abused because of unhandled user inputs. More precisely, we use regular expression as a fast and simple method to define some patterns for detection of vulnerabilities. As inclusion functions could be also used in a safe way, there could occur many false positives (FP). The first cause of these FP-s could be that the function does not use a usersupplied variable as an argument. So, we extract a list of usersupplied variables to be used for detecting vulnerable lines of code. On the other side, as vulnerability could spread among the variables like by multi-level assignment, we also try to extract the hidden usersupplied variables. We use the resulted list to decrease the false positives of our method. Finally, as there exist some ways to prevent the vulnerability of inclusion functions, we define also some patterns to detect them and decrease our false positives.

Keywords: User-supplied Variables, hidden user-supplied variables, PHP vulnerabilities.

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1169 Stochastic Impact Analysis of COVID-19 on Karachi Stock Exchange

Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

Abstract:

The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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1168 A Practical Approach for Electricity Load Forecasting

Authors: T. Rashid, T. Kechadi

Abstract:

This paper is a continuation of our daily energy peak load forecasting approach using our modified network which is part of the recurrent networks family and is called feed forward and feed back multi context artificial neural network (FFFB-MCANN). The inputs to the network were exogenous variables such as the previous and current change in the weather components, the previous and current status of the day and endogenous variables such as the past change in the loads. Endogenous variable such as the current change in the loads were used on the network output. Experiment shows that using endogenous and exogenous variables as inputs to the FFFBMCANN rather than either exogenous or endogenous variables as inputs to the same network produces better results. Experiments show that using the change in variables such as weather components and the change in the past load as inputs to the FFFB-MCANN rather than the absolute values for the weather components and past load as inputs to the same network has a dramatic impact and produce better accuracy.

Keywords: Daily peak load forecasting, feed forward and feedback multi-context neural network.

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1167 Sustainable Development Variables to Assess Transport Infrastructure in Remote Destinations

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

The assessment variables of the accessibility and the sustainability of access infrastructure for remote regions may vary significant by location and a wide range of factors may affect the decision process. In this paper, the environmental disturbance implications of transportation system to key demand and supply variables impact the economic system in remote destination are descripted. According to a systemic approach, the key sustainability variables deals with decision making process that have to be included in strategic plan for the critical transport infrastructure development and their relationship to regional socioeconomic system are presented. The application deals with the development of railway in remote destinations, where the traditional CBA not include the external cost generated by the environmental impacts that may have a range of diverse impacts on transport infrastructure and services. The analysis output provides key messages to decision and policy makers towards sustainable development of transport infrastructure, especially for remote destinations where accessibility is a key factor of regional economic development and social stability. The key conclusion could be essential useful for relevant applications in remote regions in the same latitude.

Keywords: Sustainable development in remote regions, sustainability variables, transport infrastructure, strategic planning.

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1166 Determining the Direction of Causality between Creating Innovation and Technology Market

Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva

Abstract:

In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: Export, import, innovation, patents.

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1165 Auto-regressive Recurrent Neural Network Approach for Electricity Load Forecasting

Authors: Tarik Rashid, B. Q. Huang, M-T. Kechadi, B. Gleeson

Abstract:

this paper presents an auto-regressive network called the Auto-Regressive Multi-Context Recurrent Neural Network (ARMCRN), which forecasts the daily peak load for two large power plant systems. The auto-regressive network is a combination of both recurrent and non-recurrent networks. Weather component variables are the key elements in forecasting because any change in these variables affects the demand of energy load. So the AR-MCRN is used to learn the relationship between past, previous, and future exogenous and endogenous variables. Experimental results show that using the change in weather components and the change that occurred in past load as inputs to the AR-MCRN, rather than the basic weather parameters and past load itself as inputs to the same network, produce higher accuracy of predicted load. Experimental results also show that using exogenous and endogenous variables as inputs is better than using only the exogenous variables as inputs to the network.

Keywords: Daily peak load forecasting, neural networks, recurrent neural networks, auto regressive multi-context neural network.

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1164 Determination of Effective Variables on Arachidonic Acid Production by Mortierella alpina CBS 754.68in Solid-State Fermentation using Plackett-Burman Screening Design

Authors: Z. Ghobadi, Z. Hamidi- Esfahani, M. H. Azizi

Abstract:

In the present study, the oleaginous fungus Mortierella alpina CBS 754.68 was screened for arachidonic acidproduction using inexpensive agricultural by-products as substrate. Four oilcakes were analysed to choose the best substrate among them. Sunflower oilcake was the most effective substrate for ARA production followed by soybean, colza and olive oilcakes. In the next step, seven variables including substrate particle size, moisture content, time, temperature, yeast extract supply, glucose supply and glutamate supply were surveyed and effective variables for ARA production were determined using a Plackett-Burman screening design. Analysis results showed that time (12 days), substrate particle size (1-1.4 mm) and temperature (20ºC) were the most effective variables for the highest level of ARA production respectively.

Keywords: Arachidonic acid, Mortierella alpine, Solid-statefermentation, Plackett-Burman design

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1163 Quantification of the Variables of the Information Model for the Use of School Terminology from 1884 to 2014 in Dalmatia

Authors: V. Vidučić, T. Brešan Ančić, M. Tomelić Ćurlin

Abstract:

Prior to quantifying the variables of the information model for using school terminology in Croatia's region of Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014, the most relevant model variables had to be determined: historical circumstances, standard of living, education system, linguistic situation, and media. The research findings show that there was no significant transfer of the 1884 school terms into 1949 usage; likewise, the 1949 school terms were not widely used in 2014. On the other hand, the research revealed that the meaning of school terms changed over the decades. The quantification of the variables will serve as the groundwork for creating an information model for using school terminology in Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014 and for defining direct growth rates in further research.

Keywords: Education system, historical circumstances, linguistic situation, media, school terminology, standard of living.

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1162 Biogas Production from Waste using Biofilm Reactor: Factor Analysis in Two Stages System

Authors: N. Zainol, J. Salihon, R. Abdul-Rahman

Abstract:

Factor analysis was applied to two stages biogas production from banana stem waste allowing a screening of the experimental variables second stage temperature (T), organic loading rates (OLR) and hydraulic retention times (HRT). Biogas production was found to be strongly influenced by all the above experimental variables. Results from factorial analysis have shown that all variables which were HRT, OLR and T have significant effect to biogas production. Increased in HRT and OLR could increased the biogas yield. The performance was tested under the conditions of various T (35oC-60oC), OLR (0.3 g TS/l.d–1.9 gTS/l.d), and HRT (3 d–15 d). Conditions for temperature, OLR and HRT in this study were based on the best range obtained from literature review.

Keywords: Biogas, factor analysis, banana stem waste

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1161 Regional Differences in the Effect of Immigration on Poverty Rates in Spain

Authors: E. Bárcena-Martín, S. Pérez-Moreno

Abstract:

This paper explores the extent of the gap in poverty rates between immigrant and native households in Spanish regions and assess to what extent regional differences in individual and contextual characteristics can explain the divergences in such a gap. By using multilevel techniques and European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions, we estimate immigrant households experiments an increase of 76 per cent in the odds of being poor compared with a native one when we control by individual variables. In relation to regional differences in the risk of poverty, regionallevel variables have higher effect in the reduction of these differences than individual variables.

Keywords: Immigration, Multilevel Analysis, Poverty, Spanish Regions

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1160 Determinants of the U.S. Current Account

Authors: Shuh Liang

Abstract:

This article provides empirical evidence on the effect of domestic and international factors on the U.S. current account deficit. Linear dynamic regression and vector autoregression models are employed to estimate the relationships during the period from 1986 to 2011. The findings of this study suggest that the current and lagged private saving rate and foreign current account for East Asian economies have played a vital role in affecting the U.S. current account. Additionally, using Granger causality tests and variance decompositions, the change of the productivity growth and foreign domestic demand are determined to influence significantly the change of the U.S. current account. To summarize, the empirical relationship between the U.S. current account deficit and its determinants is sensitive to alternative regression models and specifications.

Keywords: Current account deficit, productivity growth, foreign demand, vector autoregression.

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1159 Effect of Size of the Step in the Response Surface Methodology using Nonlinear Test Functions

Authors: Jesús Everardo Olguín Tiznado, Rafael García Martínez, Claudia Camargo Wilson, Juan Andrés López Barreras, Everardo Inzunza González, Javier Ordorica Villalvazo

Abstract:

The response surface methodology (RSM) is a collection of mathematical and statistical techniques useful in the modeling and analysis of problems in which the dependent variable receives the influence of several independent variables, in order to determine which are the conditions under which should operate these variables to optimize a production process. The RSM estimated a regression model of first order, and sets the search direction using the method of maximum / minimum slope up / down MMS U/D. However, this method selects the step size intuitively, which can affect the efficiency of the RSM. This paper assesses how the step size affects the efficiency of this methodology. The numerical examples are carried out through Monte Carlo experiments, evaluating three response variables: efficiency gain function, the optimum distance and the number of iterations. The results in the simulation experiments showed that in response variables efficiency and gain function at the optimum distance were not affected by the step size, while the number of iterations is found that the efficiency if it is affected by the size of the step and function type of test used.

Keywords: RSM, dependent variable, independent variables, efficiency, simulation

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1158 Stochastic Programming Model for Power Generation

Authors: Takayuki Shiina

Abstract:

We consider power system expansion planning under uncertainty. In our approach, integer programming and stochastic programming provide a basic framework. We develop a multistage stochastic programming model in which some of the variables are restricted to integer values. By utilizing the special property of the problem, called block separable recourse, the problem is transformed into a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. The electric power capacity expansion problem is reformulated as the problem with first stage integer variables and continuous second stage variables. The L-shaped algorithm to solve the problem is proposed.

Keywords: electric power capacity expansion problem, integerprogramming, L-shaped method, stochastic programming

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1157 GMDH Modeling Based on Polynomial Spline Estimation and Its Applications

Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun

Abstract:

GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline  stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.

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1156 Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling

Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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1155 The Euler Equations of Steady Flow in Terms of New Dependent and Independent Variables

Authors: Peiangpob Monnuanprang

Abstract:

In this paper we study the transformation of Euler equations  1 , u u u Pf t (ρ ∂) + ⋅∇ = − ∇ + ∂ G G G G ∇⋅ = u 0, G where (ux, t) G G is the velocity of a fluid, P(x, t) G is the pressure of a fluid andρ (x, t) G is density. First of all, we rewrite the Euler equations in terms of new unknown functions. Then, we introduce new independent variables and transform it to a new curvilinear coordinate system. We obtain the Euler equations in the new dependent and independent variables. The governing equations into two subsystems, one is hyperbolic and another is elliptic.

Keywords: Euler equations, transformation, hyperbolic, elliptic

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1154 State Estimation Method Based on Unscented Kalman Filter for Vehicle Nonlinear Dynamics

Authors: Wataru Nakamura, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Liang-Kuang Chen

Abstract:

This paper provides a state estimation method for automatic control systems of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. A nonlinear tire model is employed to represent the realistic behavior of a vehicle. In general, all the state variables of control systems are not precisedly known, because those variables are observed through output sensors and limited parts of them might be only measurable. Hence, automatic control systems must incorporate some type of state estimation. It is needed to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear vehicle dynamics with restricted measurable state variables. For this purpose, unscented Kalman filter method is applied in this study for estimating the state variables of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The objective of this paper is to propose a state estimation method using unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: State estimation, control systems, observer systems, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear vehicle dynamics.

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1153 Implementing an Intuitive Reasoner with a Large Weather Database

Authors: Yung-Chien Sun, O. Grant Clark

Abstract:

In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables" whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex" situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty. The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the complete database and create predictive models for the same 12 target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10% of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, intuition, knowledge acquisition, limited certainty.

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1152 Categorical Missing Data Imputation Using Fuzzy Neural Networks with Numerical and Categorical Inputs

Authors: Pilar Rey-del-Castillo, Jesús Cardeñosa

Abstract:

There are many situations where input feature vectors are incomplete and methods to tackle the problem have been studied for a long time. A commonly used procedure is to replace each missing value with an imputation. This paper presents a method to perform categorical missing data imputation from numerical and categorical variables. The imputations are based on Simpson-s fuzzy min-max neural networks where the input variables for learning and classification are just numerical. The proposed method extends the input to categorical variables by introducing new fuzzy sets, a new operation and a new architecture. The procedure is tested and compared with others using opinion poll data.

Keywords: Classifier, imputation techniques, fuzzy systems, fuzzy min-max neural networks.

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1151 Reconstitute Information about Discontinued Water Quality Variables in the Nile Delta Monitoring Network Using Two Record Extension Techniques

Authors: Bahaa Khalil, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, André St-Hilaire

Abstract:

The world economic crises and budget constraints have caused authorities, especially those in developing countries, to rationalize water quality monitoring activities. Rationalization consists of reducing the number of monitoring sites, the number of samples, and/or the number of water quality variables measured. The reduction in water quality variables is usually based on correlation. If two variables exhibit high correlation, it is an indication that some of the information produced may be redundant. Consequently, one variable can be discontinued, and the other continues to be measured. Later, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique is employed to reconstitute information about discontinued variable by using the continuously measured one as an explanatory variable. In this paper, two record extension techniques are employed to reconstitute information about discontinued water quality variables, the OLS and the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC). An empirical experiment is conducted using water quality records from the Nile Delta water quality monitoring network in Egypt. The record extension techniques are compared for their ability to predict different statistical parameters of the discontinued variables. Results show that the OLS is better at estimating individual water quality records. However, results indicate an underestimation of the variance in the extended records. The LOC technique is superior in preserving characteristics of the entire distribution and avoids underestimation of the variance. It is concluded from this study that the OLS can be used for the substitution of missing values, while LOC is preferable for inferring statements about the probability distribution.

Keywords: Record extension, record augmentation, monitoringnetworks, water quality indicators.

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1150 The Effect of Perceived Organizational Support on Organizational Identification

Authors: A. Çelik, M. Findik

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to determine the effects of perceived organizational support on organizational identification. In accordance with this purpose was applied on 131 family physicians in Konya. The data obtained by means of the survey method were analyzed. According to the results of correlation analysis, while positive relationship between perceived organizational support, organizational identification and supervisor support was revealed. Also, with the scope of the research, relationships between these variables and certain demographic variables were detected. According to difference analysis results of the research, significant differences between organizational identification and gender variable were determined. However, significant differences were not determined between demographic variables and perceived organizational support.

Keywords: Family Physicians, Organizational Identification, Perceived Organizational Support, Supervisor Support

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1149 Using the Technology Acceptance Model to Examine Seniors’ Attitudes toward Facebook

Authors: Chien-Jen Liu, Shu Ching Yang

Abstract:

Using the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study examined the external variables of technological complexity (TC) to acquire a better understanding of the factors that influence the acceptance of computer application courses by learners at Active Aging Universities. After the learners in this study had completed a 27-hour Facebook course, 44 learners responded to a modified TAM survey. Data were collected to examine the path relationships among the variables that influence the acceptance of Facebook-mediated community learning. The partial least squares (PLS) method was used to test the measurement and the structural model. The study results demonstrated that attitudes toward Facebook use directly influence behavioral intentions (BI) with respect to Facebook use, evincing a high prediction rate of 58.3%. In addition to the perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU) measures that are proposed in the TAM, other external variables, such as TC, also indirectly influence BI. These four variables can explain 88% of the variance in BI and demonstrate a high level of predictive ability. Finally, limitations of this investigation and implications for further research are discussed.

Keywords: Technology acceptance model (TAM), technological complexity, partial least squares (PLS), perceived usefulness.

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1148 Modeling And Analysis of Simple Open Cycle Gas Turbine Using Graph Networks

Authors: Naresh Yadav, I.A. Khan, Sandeep Grover

Abstract:

This paper presents a unified approach based graph theory and system theory postulates for the modeling and analysis of Simple open cycle Gas turbine system. In the present paper, the simple open cycle gas turbine system has been modeled up to its subsystem level and system variables have been identified to develop the process subgraphs. The theorems and algorithms of the graph theory have been used to represent behavioural properties of the system like rate of heat and work transfers rates, pressure drops and temperature drops in the involved processes of the system. The processes have been represented as edges of the process subgraphs and their limits as the vertices of the process subgraphs. The system across variables and through variables has been used to develop terminal equations of the process subgraphs of the system. The set of equations developed for vertices and edges of network graph are used to solve the system for its process variables.

Keywords: Simple open cycle gas turbine, Graph theoretic approach, process subgraphs, gas turbines system modeling, systemtheory

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1147 Associations between Game Users and Life Satisfaction: Role of Self-Esteem, Self-Efficacy and Social Capital

Authors: Hye Rim Lee, Eui Jun Jeong

Abstract:

This study makes an integrated investigation on how life satisfaction is associated with the Korean game users' psychological variables (self-esteem, game and life self- efficacy), social variables (bonding and bridging social capital), and demographic variables (age, gender). The data used for the empirical analysis came from a representative sample survey conducted in South Korea. Results show that self-esteem and game efficacy were an important antecedent to the degree of users’ life satisfaction. Both bonding social capital and bridging social capital enhance the level of the users’ life satisfaction. The importance of perspectives as well as their implications for the game users and further associated research is explored.

Keywords: Life satisfaction, self-esteem, game efficacy, life-efficacy, social capital.

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1146 Effects of Computer–Based Instructional Designs among Pupils of Different Music Intelligence Levels

Authors: Aldalalah, M. Osamah, Soon Fook Fong

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of computer–based instructional designs, namely modality and redundancy principles on the attitude and learning of music theory among primary pupils of different Music Intelligence levels. The lesson of music theory was developed in three different modes, audio and image (AI), text with image (TI) and audio with image and text (AIT). The independent variables were the three modes of courseware. The moderator variable was music intelligence. The dependent variables were the post test score. ANOVA was used to determine the significant differences of the pretest scores among the three groups. Analyses of covariance (ANCOVA) and Post hoc were carried out to examine the main effects as well as the interaction effects of the independent variables on the dependent variables. High music intelligence pupils performed significantly better than low music intelligence pupils in all the three treatment modes. The AI mode was found to help pupils with low music intelligence significantly more than the TI and AIT modes.

Keywords: Modality, Redundancy, Music theory, Cognitivetheory of multimedia learning, Cognitive load theory, Musicintelligence.

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1145 Comparison between Post- and Oxy-Combustion Systems in a Petroleum Refinery Unit Using Modeling and Optimization

Authors: Farooq A. Al-Sheikh, Ali Elkamel, William A. Anderson

Abstract:

A fluidized catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) is one of the effective units in many refineries. Modeling and optimization of FCCU were done by many researchers in past decades, but in this research, comparison between post- and oxy-combustion was studied in the regenerator-FCCU. Therefore, a simplified mathematical model was derived by doing mass/heat balances around both reactor and regenerator. A state space analysis was employed to show effects of the flow rates variables such as air, feed, spent catalyst, regenerated catalyst and flue gas on the output variables. The main aim of studying dynamic responses is to figure out the most influencing variables that affect both reactor/regenerator temperatures; also, finding the upper/lower limits of the influencing variables to ensure that temperatures of the reactors and regenerator work within normal operating conditions. Therefore, those values will be used as side constraints in the optimization technique to find appropriate operating regimes. The objective functions were modeled to be maximizing the energy in the reactor while minimizing the energy consumption in the regenerator. In conclusion, an oxy-combustion process can be used instead of a post-combustion one.

Keywords: FCCU modeling, optimization, oxy-combustion post-combustion.

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1144 Choosing between the Regression Correlation, the Rank Correlation, and the Correlation Curve

Authors: Roger L Goodwin

Abstract:

This paper presents a rank correlation curve. The traditional correlation coefficient is valid for both continuous variables and for integer variables using rank statistics. Since the correlation coefficient has already been established in rank statistics by Spearman, such a calculation can be extended to the correlation curve. This paper presents two survey questions. The survey collected non-continuous variables. We will show weak to moderate correlation. Obviously, one question has a negative effect on the other. A review of the qualitative literature can answer which question and why. The rank correlation curve shows which collection of responses has a positive slope and which collection of responses has a negative slope. Such information is unavailable from the flat, ”first-glance” correlation statistics.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, regression model, rank statistics, correlation, correlation curve.

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1143 Estimation of Production Function in Fishery on the Coasts of Caspian Sea

Authors: Komeil Jahanifar, Zahra Abedi, Yaghob Zeraatkish

Abstract:

This research was conducted for the first time at the southeastern coasts of the Caspian Sea in order to evaluate the performance of osteichthyes cooperatives through production (catch) function. Using one of the indirect valuation methods in this research, contributory factors in catch were identified and were inserted into the function as independent variables. In order to carry out this research, the performance of 25 Osteichthyes catching cooperatives in the utilization year of 2009 which were involved in fishing in Miankale wildlife refuge region. The contributory factors in catch were divided into groups of economic, ecological and biological factors. In the mentioned function, catch rate of the cooperative were inserted into as the dependant variable and fourteen partial variables in terms of nine general variables as independent variables. Finally, after function estimation, seven variables were rendered significant at 99 percent reliably level. The results of the function estimation indicated that human resource (fisherman quantity) had the greatest positive effect on catch rate with an influence coefficient of 1.7 while weather conditions had the greatest negative effect on the catch rate of cooperatives with an influence coefficient of -2.07. Moreover, factors like member's share, experience and fisherman training and fishing effort played the main roles in the catch rate of cooperative with influence coefficients of 0.81, 0.5 and 0.21, respectively.

Keywords: Production Function, Coefficient, Variable, Osteichthyes, Caspian Sea

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1142 Key Strategies for a Competitive Supply Chain

Authors: Ajay Verma, Nitin Seth

Abstract:

In this era of competitiveness, there is a growing need for supply chains also to become competitive enough to handle pressures like varying customer’s expectations, low cost high quality products to be delivered at the minimum time and the most important is throat cutting competition at world wide scale. In the recent years, supply chain competitiveness has been, therefore, accepted as one of the most important philosophies in the supply chain literature and researchers have tried to identify variables of supply chain competitiveness. This paper highlights some of the concepts of supply chain competitiveness and tries to identify select variables on the basis of literature review. Further, the paper tries to highlight the importance of the identified variables in the achievement of supply chain competitiveness. The aim is to explore the concept and to motivate researchers to further investigate the unexplored areas of this important subject domain.

Keywords: Supply Chain Competitiveness, Demand Management, Integration, Inventory Management, Flexibility, Information Technology.

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1141 Optimization of Lean Methodologies in the Textile Industry Using Design of Experiments

Authors: Ahmad Yame, Ahad Ali, Badih Jawad, Daw Al-Werfalli Mohamed Nasser, Sabah Abro

Abstract:

Industries in general have a lot of waste. Wool textile company, Baniwalid, Libya has many complex problems that led to enormous waste generated due to the lack of lean strategies, expertise, technical support and commitment. To successfully address waste at wool textile company, this study will attempt to develop a methodical approach that integrates lean manufacturing tools to optimize performance characteristics such as lead time and delivery. This methodology will utilize Value Stream Mapping (VSM) techniques to identify the process variables that affect production. Once these variables are identified, Design of Experiments (DOE) Methodology will be used to determine the significantly influential process variables, these variables are then controlled and set at their optimal to achieve optimal levels of productivity, quality, agility, efficiency and delivery to analyze the outputs of the simulation model for different lean configurations. The goal of this research is to investigate how the tools of lean manufacturing can be adapted from the discrete to the continuous manufacturing environment and to evaluate their benefits at a specific industrial.

Keywords: Lean manufacturing, DOE, value stream mapping, textiles.

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