Search results for: fuzzy number

Authors: Aravind Kumar

Abstract:

The high terrains of Garhwal (Uttarakhand) Himalaya are the niches of a number of rare and endemic plant species of great therapeutic importance. However, the wild flora of the area is still under a constant threat due to rapid upsurge in human interferences, especially through multifarious tourism growth and peri-urban encroachments. After getting the status of a ‘Special State’ of the country since its inception in the year 2000, this newly borne State led to very rapid infrastructural growth and development. Consequently, its townships started expanding in an unmanaged way grabbing nearby agricultural lands and forest areas into peri-urban landscapes. Simultaneously, a boom in tourism and pilgrimage in the state and the infrastructural facilities raised by the government for tourists/pilgrims are destroying its biodiversity. Field survey revealed 242 plant species of therapeutic significance naturally growing in the area and being utilized by local inhabitants as traditional medicines. On conservation scale, 6 species (2.2%) were identified as critically endangered, 19 species (7.1%) as the endangered ones, 8 species (3.0%) under rare category, 17 species (6.4%) as threatened and 14 species (5.2%) as vulnerable. The Government of India has brought mega-biodiversity hot spots of the state under Biosphere Reserve, National Parks, etc. restricting all kinds of human interferences; however, the two most sacred shrines of Hindus and Sikhs viz. Shri Badrinath and Shri Hemkunt Sahib, and two great touristic attractions viz. Valley of Flowers and Auli-Joshimath Skiing Track oblige the government to maintain equilibrium between entries of visitors vis-à-vis biodiversity conservation in high terrains of Uttarakhand Himalaya.

Keywords: Biodiversity conservation, ethno-botany, Garhwal (Uttarakhand) Himalaya, peri-urban encroachment, pilgrimage and tourism.

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated investment system, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex.

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Authors: Md Y. Reja, Samuel D. Brody, Wesley E. Highfield, Galen D. Newman

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Historically, wetlands in the United States have been lost due to agriculture, anthropogenic activities, and rapid urbanization along the coast. Such losses of wetlands have resulted in high flooding risk for coastal communities over the period of time. In addition, alteration of wetlands via the Section 404 Clean Water Act permits can increase the flooding risk to future hurricane events, as the cumulative impact of this program is poorly understood and under-accounted. Further, recovery after hurricane events is acting as an encouragement for new development and reconstruction activities by converting wetlands under the wetland alteration permitting program. This study investigates the degree to which hurricane recovery activities in coastal communities are undermining the ability of these places to absorb the impacts of future storm events. Specifically, this work explores how and to what extent wetlands are being affected by the federal permitting program post-Hurricane Ike in 2008. Wetland alteration patterns are examined across three counties (Harris, Galveston, and Chambers County) along the Texas Gulf Coast over a 10-year time period, from 2004-2013 (five years before and after Hurricane Ike) by conducting descriptive spatial analyses. Results indicate that after Hurricane Ike, the number of permits substantially increased in Harris and Chambers County. The vast majority of individual and nationwide type permits were issued within the 100-year floodplain, storm surge zones, and areas damaged by Ike flooding, suggesting that recovery after the hurricane is compromising the ecological resiliency on which coastal communities depend. The authors expect that the findings of this study can increase awareness to policy makers and hazard mitigation planners regarding how to manage wetlands during a long-term recovery process to maintain their natural functions for future flood mitigation.

Keywords: Ecological resiliency, Hurricane Ike, recovery, Section 404 permitting, wetland alteration.

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Authors: U. Pangnakorn, S. Chuenchooklin

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Acute and chronic effects of biopesticide from entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar and fermented organic substances from plants: (neem Azadirachta indica + citronella grass Cymbopogon nardus Rendle + bitter bush Chromolaena odorata L.) were tested on culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.). The biopesticide was investigated for infestation reduction of the major insect pest whitefly (Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)). The experimental plots were located at a farm in Nakhon Sawan Province, Thailand. This study was undertaken during the drought season (late November to May). Effectiveness of the treatment was evaluated in terms of acute and chronic effect. The populations of whitefly were observed and recorded every hour up to 3 hours with insect nets and yellow sticky traps after the treatments were applied for the acute effect. The results showed that bacteria ISR had the highest effectiveness for controlling whitefly infestation on culantro; the whitefly numbers on insect nets were 12.5, 10.0 and 7.5 after 1 hr, 2 hr, and 3 hr, respectively while the whitefly on yellow sticky traps showed 15.0, 10.0 and 10.0 after 1 hr, 2 hr, and 3 hr, respectively. For chronic effect, the whitefly was continuously collected and recorded at weekly intervals; the result showed that treatment of bacteria ISR found the average whitefly numbers only 8.06 and 11.0 on insect nets and sticky traps respectively, followed by treatment of nematode where the average whitefly was 9.87 and 11.43 on the insect nets and sticky traps, respectively. In addition, the minor insect pests were also observed and collected. The biopesticide influenced the reduction number of minor insect pests (red spider mites, beet armyworm, short-horned grasshopper, pygmy locusts, etc.) with only a few found on the culantro cultivation.

Keywords: Whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius), Culantro (Eryngium foetidum L.), Entomopathogenic nematode (Steinernema thailandensis n. sp.), Bacteria ISR (Pseudomonas fluorescens), wood vinegar, fermented organic substances.

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Authors: Santosh Kumar, Anand Prakash, Kanak Sinha, Anita K Verma

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Vernonia divergens Benth., commonly known as “Insulin Plant” (Fam: Asteraceae) is a potent sugar killer. Locally the leaves of the plant, boiled in water are successfully administered to a large number of diabetic patients. The present study evaluates the putative anti-diabetic ingredients, isolated from the in vivo and in vitro grown plantlets of V. divergens for their antimicrobial and anticancer activities. Sterilized explants of nodal segments were cultured on MS (Musashige and Skoog, 1962) medium in presence of different combinations of hormones. Multiple shoots along with bunch of roots were regenerated at 1mg l-1 BAP and 0.5 mg l-1 NAA. Micro-plantlets were separated and sub-cultured on the double strength (2X) of the above combination of hormones leading to increased length of roots and shoots. These plantlets were successfully transferred to soil and survived well in nature. The ethanol extract of plantlets from both in vivo & in vitro sources were prepared in soxhlet extractor and then concentrated to dryness under reduced pressure in rotary evaporator. Thus obtainedconcentrated extracts showed significant inhibitory activity against gram negative bacteria like Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa but no inhibition was found against gram positive bacteria. Further, these ethanol extracts were screened for in vitro percentage cytotoxicity at different time periods (24 h, 48 h and 72 h) of different dilutions. The in vivo plant extract inhibited the growth of EAC mouse cell lines in the range of 65, 66, 78, and 88% at 100, 50, 25 & 12.5μg mL-1 but at 72 h of treatment. In case of the extract of in vitro origin, the inhibition was found against EAC cell lines even at 48h. During spectrophotometric scanning, the extracts exhibited different maxima (ʎ) - four peaks in in vitro extracts as against single in in vivo preparation suggesting the possible change in the nature of ingredients during micropropagation through tissue culture techniques.

Keywords: Anti-cancer, Anti-microbial, EAC mouse cell, Tissue culture, Vernonia divergens.

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Authors: Keivan Beheshti Maal, Rasoul Shafiei, Noushin Kabiri

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Vinegar or sour wine is a product of alcoholic and subsequent acetous fermentation of sugary precursors derived from several fruits or starchy substrates. This delicious food additive and supplement contains not less than 4 grams of acetic acid in 100 cubic centimeters at 20°C. Among the large number of bacteria that are able to produce acetic acid, only few genera are used in vinegar industry most significant of which are Acetobacter and Gluconobacter. In this research we isolated and identified an Acetobacter strain from Iranian apricot, a very delicious and sensitive summer fruit to decay, we gathered from fruit's stores in Isfahan, Iran. The main culture media we used were Carr, GYC, Frateur and an industrial medium for vinegar production. We isolated this strain using a novel miniature fermentor we made at Pars Yeema Biotechnologists Co., Isfahan Science and Technology Town (ISTT), Isfahan, Iran. The microscopic examinations of isolated strain from Iranian apricot showed gram negative rods to cocobacilli. Their catalase reaction was positive and oxidase reaction was negative and could ferment ethanol to acetic acid. Also it showed an acceptable growth in 5%, 7% and 9% ethanol concentrations at 30°C using modified Carr media after 24, 48 and 96 hours incubation respectively. According to its tolerance against high concentrations of ethanol after four days incubation and its high acetic acid production, 8.53%, after 144 hours, this strain could be considered as a suitable industrial strain for a production of a new type of vinegar, apricot vinegar, with a new and delicious taste. In conclusion this is the first report of isolation and identification of an Acetobacter strain from Iranian apricot with a very good tolerance against high ethanol concentrations as well as high acetic acid productivity in an acceptable incubation period of time industrially. This strain could be used in vinegar industry to convert apricot spoilage to a beneficiary product and mentioned characteristics have made it as an amenable strain in food and agricultural biotechnology.

Keywords: Acetic Acid Bacteria, Acetobacter, Fermentation, Food and Agricultural Biotechnology, Iranian Apricot, Vinegar.

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: Travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, neural network model, traffic resource allocation.

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Authors: Ioannis I. Αngeli

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Worldwide and mainly in the European Union, many standards, regulations, models and systems exists for the evaluation and identification of stakeholders’ requirements of individual universities and higher education (HE) in general. All systems are targeting to measure or evaluate the Universities’ Quality Assurance Systems and the services offered to the recipients of HE, mainly the students. Numerous surveys were conducted in the past either by each university or by organized bodies to identify the students’ satisfaction or to evaluate to what extent these requirements are fulfilled. In this paper, the main results of an ongoing 6-year joint research will be presented very briefly. This research deals with an in depth investigation of student’s satisfaction, students personal requirements, a cup analysis among these two parameters and compares different universities. Through this research an attempt will be made to address four very important questions in higher education establishments (HEE): (1) Are there any common requirements, parameters, good practices or questions that apply to a large number of universities that will assure that students’ requirements are fulfilled? (2) Up to what extent the individual programs of HEE fulfil the requirements of the stakeholders? (3) Are there any similarities on specific programs among European HEE? (4) To what extent the knowledge acquired in a specific course program is utilized or used in a specific country? For the execution of the research an internationally accepted questionnaire(s) was used to evaluate up to what extent the students’ requirements and satisfaction were fulfilled in 2012 and five years later (2017). Samples of students and or universities were taken from many European Universities. The questionnaires used, the sampling method and methodology adopted, as well as the comparison tables and results will be very valuable to any university that is willing to follow the same route and methodology or compare the results with their own HHE. Apart from the unique methodology, valuable results are demonstrated from the four case studies. There is a great difference between the student’s expectations or importance from what they are getting from their universities (in all parameters they are getting less). When there is a crisis or budget cut in HEE there is a direct impact to students. There are many differences on subjects taught in European universities.

Keywords: Quality in higher education, students’ requirements, education standards, student’s survey, stakeholder’s requirements, Mechanical Engineering courses.

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Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi

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This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.

Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.

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Authors: Niloofar Yousefi, Marie Alaghband, Ivan Garibay

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With the increase of credit card usage, the volume of credit card misuse also has significantly increased, which may cause appreciable financial losses for both credit card holders and financial organizations issuing credit cards. As a result, financial organizations are working hard on developing and deploying credit card fraud detection methods, in order to adapt to ever-evolving, increasingly sophisticated defrauding strategies and identifying illicit transactions as quickly as possible to protect themselves and their customers. Compounding on the complex nature of such adverse strategies, credit card fraudulent activities are rare events compared to the number of legitimate transactions. Hence, the challenge to develop fraud detection that are accurate and efficient is substantially intensified and, as a consequence, credit card fraud detection has lately become a very active area of research. In this work, we provide a survey of current techniques most relevant to the problem of credit card fraud detection. We carry out our survey in two main parts. In the first part, we focus on studies utilizing classical machine learning models, which mostly employ traditional transnational features to make fraud predictions. These models typically rely on some static physical characteristics, such as what the user knows (knowledge-based method), or what he/she has access to (object-based method). In the second part of our survey, we review more advanced techniques of user authentication, which use behavioral biometrics to identify an individual based on his/her unique behavior while he/she is interacting with his/her electronic devices. These approaches rely on how people behave (instead of what they do), which cannot be easily forged. By providing an overview of current approaches and the results reported in the literature, this survey aims to drive the future research agenda for the community in order to develop more accurate, reliable and scalable models of credit card fraud detection.

Keywords: credit card fraud detection, user authentication, behavioral biometrics, machine learning, literature survey

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Authors: B. Frączek

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The paper analyses the usage of the Internet by university students in Visegrad Countries (4V Countries) who study economic fields in their formal and informal financial education and captures the areas of untapped potential of Internet in educational processes. Higher education and training, technological readiness, and the financial market development are in the group of pillars, that are key for efficiency driven economies. These three pillars have become an inspiration to the research on using the Internet in the financial education among economic university students as the group of the best educated people in finance. The financial education is a process that allows for improving the level of financial literacy. In turn, the financial literacy it is the set of financial knowledge, skills, awareness and patterns influencing the financial decisions. The level of financial literacy influences the level of financial well-being of individuals, determines the scale of saving of households and at the same time gives the greater chance for sustainable and more predictable development of the financial market with the positive impact on economy. The financial literacy is necessary for each group of society but its appropriate level is desirable especially in respect of economics students as future participants of financial markets as well as the experts and advisors in financial decision making. The low level of financial literacy is the great problem of many target groups in both developing and developed countries and the financial education is seen as the best way of improving this situation. Also the financial inclusion plays the special role in enhancing the level of financial literacy in the aspect of education by practice as well as due to interrelation between level of financial literacy and degree of financial inclusion. Despite many initiatives under financial education, the level of financial literacy is still very low. Scientists still search for new ways of solving this problem. One of the proposal is more effective usage of the new technology in financial education, especially the Internet, because of the growing popularity of e-learning and the increasing number of Internet users, especially among young people who are called the Generation Net. Due to special role of the university students studying the economics fields for the future financial markets, students of four universities from Visegrad Countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) were invited to participate in the survey. The aim of the article is to present the level and ways of using the Internet technology in financial education and indicating the so far unused or underused opportunities.

Keywords: Financial education, financial inclusion, financial literacy, usage of Internet in education.

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Authors: Rawia M. Khalil, Ahmed A. Abd El Rahman, Mahfouz A. Kassem, Mohamed S. El Ridi, Mona M. Abou Samra, Ghada E. A. Awad, Soheir S. Mansy

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Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) have gained great attention for the topical treatment of skin associated fungal infection as they facilitate the skin penetration of loaded drugs. Our work deals with the preparation of nystatin loaded solid lipid nanoparticles (NystSLNs) using the hot homogenization and ultrasonication method. The prepared NystSLNs were characterized in terms of entrapment efficiency, particle size, zeta potential, transmission electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, rheological behavior and in vitro drug release. A stability study for 6 months was performed. A microbiological study was conducted in male rats infected with Candida albicans, by counting the colonies and examining the histopathological changes induced on the skin of infected rats. The results showed that SLNs dispersions are spherical in shape with particle size ranging from 83.26±11.33 to 955.04±1.09 nm. The entrapment efficiencies are ranging from 19.73±1.21 to 72.46±0.66% with zeta potential ranging from -18.9 to -38.8 mV and shear-thinning rheological Behavior. The stability studies done for 6 months showed that nystatin (Nyst) is a good candidate for topical SLN formulations. A least number of colony forming unit/ ml (cfu/ml) was recorded for the selected NystSLN compared to the drug solution and the commercial Nystatin® cream present in the market. It can be fulfilled from this work that SLNs provide a good skin targeting effect and may represent promising carrier for topical delivery of Nyst offering the sustained release and maintaining the localized effect, resulting in an effective treatment of cutaneous fungal infection.

Keywords: Candida infections, Hot homogenization, Nystatin, Solid lipid nanoparticles, Stability, Topical delivery.

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Authors: A.Gandomkar, F. Khorasanizadeh

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Tourism is a phenomenon respected by the human communities since a long time ago. It has been evoloving continually based on a variety of social and economic needs and with respect to increasingly development of communication and considerable increase of tourist-s number and resulted exchange income has attained much out come such as employment for the communities. or the purpose of tourism development in this zone suitable times and locations need to be specified in the zone for the tourist-s attendance. One of the most important needs of the tourists is the knowledge of climate conditions and suitable times for sightseeing. In this survey, the climate trend condition has been identified for attending the tourists in Isfahan province using the modified tourism climate index (TCI) as well as SPSS, GIS, excel, surfer softwares. This index evoluates systematically the climate conditions for tourism affairs and activities using the monthly maximum mean parameters of daily temperature, daily mean temperature, minimum relative humidity, daily mean relative humidity, precipitation (mm), total sunny hours, wind speed and dust. The results obtaind using kendal-s correlation test show that the months January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December are significant and have an increasing trend that indicates the best condition for attending the tourists. S, P, T mean , T max and dust are estimated from 1976-2005 and do kendal-s correlation test again to see which parameter has been effective. Based on the test, we also observed on the effective parameters that the rate of dust in February, March, April, May, June, July, August, October and November is decreasing and precipitation in September and January is increasing and also the radiation rate in May and August is increasing that indicate a better condition of convenience. Maximum temperature in June is also decreasing. Isfahan province has two spring and fall peaks and the best places for tourism are in the north and western areas.

Keywords: Climate, Tourism, Correlation Test, Tourism Climate Index, Isfahan Province

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Authors: K. Jafar, R. Nazar, A. Ishak, I. Pop

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The present analysis considers the steady stagnation point flow and heat transfer towards a permeable shrinking sheet in an upper-convected Maxwell (UCM) electrically conducting fluid, with a constant magnetic field applied in the transverse direction to flow and a local heat generation within the boundary layer, with a heat generation rate proportional to (T-T)^p Using a similarity transformation, the governing system of partial differential equations is first transformed into a system of ordinary differential equations, which is then solved numerically using a finite-difference scheme known as the Keller-box method. Numerical results are obtained for the flow and thermal fields for various values of the stretching/shrinking parameter λ, the magnetic parameter M, the elastic parameter K, the Prandtl number Pr, the suction parameter s, the heat generation parameter Q, and the exponent p. The results indicate the existence of dual solutions for the shrinking sheet up to a critical value λ_c whose value depends on the value of M, K, and s. In the presence of internal heat absorption (Q<0)  the surface heat transfer rate decreases with increasing p but increases with parameters Q and s when the sheet is either stretched or shrunk.

Keywords: Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), boundary layer flow, UCM fluid, stagnation point, shrinking sheet.

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Authors: G. Disciglio, G. Gatta, F. Lops, A. Libutti, A. Tarantino, E. Tarantino

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The experimental trial was carried out in open field at Foggia district (Apulia Region, Southern Italy), during the spring-summer season 2014, in order to evaluate the effect of four biostimulant products (RadiconÒ, Viormon plusÒ, LysodinÒ and SiaptonÒ 10L), compared with a control (no biostimulant), on the infestation of processing tomato crop (cv Dres) by the chlorophyll-lacking root parasite Phelipanche ramosa. Biostimulants consist in different categories of products (microbial inoculants, humic and fulvic acids, hydrolyzed proteins and aminoacids, seaweed extracts) which play various roles in plant growing, including the improvement of crop resistance and quali-quantitative characteristics of yield. The experimental trial was arranged according to a complete randomized block design with five treatments, each of one replicated three times. The processing tomato seedlings were transplanted on 5 May 2014. Throughout the crop cycle, P. ramosa infestation was assessed according to the number of emerged shoots (branched plants) counted in each plot, at 66, 78 and 92 day after transplanting. The tomato fruits were harvested at full-stage of maturity on 8 August 2014. From each plot, the marketable yield was measured and the quali-quantitative yield parameters (mean weight, dry matter content, colour coordinate, colour index and soluble solids content of the fruits) were determined. The whole dataset was tested according to the basic assumptions for the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the differences between the means were determined using Tukey’s tests at the 5% probability level. The results of the study showed that none of the applied biostimulants provided a whole control of Phelipanche, although some positive effects were obtained from their application. To this respect, the RadiconÒ appeared to be the most effective in reducing the infestation of this root-parasite in tomato crop. This treatment also gave the higher tomato yield.

Keywords: Biostimulants, control methods, Phelipanche ramosa, processing tomato crop.

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Authors: Simon B. N. Thompson

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Cortisol is essential to the regulation of the immune system and pathological yawning is a symptom of multiple sclerosis (MS). Electromyography activity (EMG) in the jaw muscles typically rises when the muscles are moved – extended or flexed; and yawning has been shown to be highly correlated with cortisol levels in healthy people as shown in the Thompson Cortisol Hypothesis. It is likely that these elevated cortisol levels are also seen in people with MS. The possible link between EMG in the jaw muscles and rises in saliva cortisol levels during yawning were investigated in a randomized controlled trial of 60 volunteers aged 18-69 years who were exposed to conditions that were designed to elicit the yawning response. Saliva samples were collected at the start and after yawning, or at the end of the presentation of yawning-provoking stimuli, in the absence of a yawn, and EMG data was additionally collected during rest and yawning phases. Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Yawning Susceptibility Scale, General Health Questionnaire, demographic, and health details were collected and the following exclusion criteria were adopted: chronic fatigue, diabetes, fibromyalgia, heart condition, high blood pressure, hormone replacement therapy, multiple sclerosis, and stroke. Significant differences were found between the saliva cortisol samples for the yawners, t (23) = -4.263, p = 0.000, as compared with the non-yawners between rest and poststimuli, which was non-significant. There were also significant differences between yawners and non-yawners for the EMG potentials with the yawners having higher rest and post-yawning potentials. Significant evidence was found to support the Thompson Cortisol Hypothesis suggesting that rises in cortisol levels are associated with the yawning response. Further research is underway to explore the use of cortisol as a potential diagnostic tool as an assist to the early diagnosis of symptoms related to neurological disorders. Bournemouth University Research & Ethics approval granted: JC28/1/13-KA6/9/13. Professional code of conduct, confidentiality, and safety issues have been addressed and approved in the Ethics submission. Trials identification number: ISRCTN61942768. http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn/

Keywords: Cortisol, Electromyography, Neurology, Yawning.

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Authors: Sungin Jeong

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This paper presents a linear oscillating generator of cylindrical type for hybrid electric vehicle application. The focus of the study is the suggestion of the optimal model and the design rule of the cylindrical linear oscillating generator with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator. The cylindrical topology is achieved using equivalent magnetic circuit considering leakage elements as initial modeling. This topology with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator is described by number of phases and displacement of stroke. For more accurate analysis of an oscillating machine, it will be compared by moving just one-pole pitch forward and backward the thrust of single-phase system and three-phase system. Through the analysis and comparison, a single-phase system of cylindrical topology as the optimal topology is selected. Finally, the detailed design of the optimal topology takes the magnetic saturation effects into account by finite element analysis. Besides, the losses are examined to obtain more accurate results; copper loss in the conductors of machine windings, eddy-current loss of permanent magnet, and iron-loss of specific material of electrical steel. The considerations of thermal performances and mechanical robustness are essential, because they have an effect on the entire efficiency and the insulations of the machine due to the losses of the high temperature generated in each region of the generator. Besides electric machine with linear oscillating movement requires a support system that can resist dynamic forces and mechanical masses. As a result, the fatigue analysis of shaft is achieved by the kinetic equations. Also, the thermal characteristics are analyzed by the operating frequency in each region. The results of this study will give a very important design rule in the design of linear oscillating machines. It enables us to more accurate machine design and more accurate prediction of machine performances.

Keywords: Equivalent magnetic circuit, finite element analysis, hybrid electric vehicle, free piston engine, cylindrical linear oscillating generator

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Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

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The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: Autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian Foredeep, Poland, shale gas.

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Authors: F. A. M. Safwan, H. N. N. Dilrukshi, P. U. S. Peiris

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Less availability of high quality green forages leads to low productivity of national dairy herd of Sri Lanka. Growing grass and fodder to suit the production system is an efficient and economical solution for this problem. CO-3 is placed in a higher category, especially on tillering capacity, green forage yield, regeneration capacity, leaf to stem ratio, high crude protein content, resistance to pests and diseases and free from adverse factors along with other fodder varieties grown within the country. An experiment was designed to determine the effect of organic sheep manure, inorganic fertilizers and liquid sheep manure on growth, yield and nutritive value of CO-3. The study was consisted with three treatments; sheep manure (T1), recommended inorganic fertilizers (T2) and liquid sheep manure (T3) which was prepared using bucket fermentation method and each treatment was consisted with three replicates and those were assigned randomly. First harvest was obtained after 40 days of plant establishment and number of leaves (NL), leaf area (LA), tillering capacity (TC), fresh weight (FW) and dry weight (DW) were recorded and second harvest was obtained after 30 days of first harvest and same set of data were recorded. SPSS 16 software was used for data analysis. For proximate analysis AOAC, 2000 standard methods were used. Results revealed that the plants treated with T1 recorded highest NL, LA, TC, FW and DW and were statistically significant at first and second harvest of CO-3 (p˂ 0.05) and it was found that T1 was statistically significant from T2 and T3. Although T3 was recorded higher than the T2 in almost all growth parameters; it was not statistically significant (p ˃0.05). In addition, the crude protein content was recorded highest in T1 with the value of 18.33±1.61 and was lowest in T2 with the value of 10.82±1.14 and was statistically significant (p˂ 0.05). Apart from this, other proximate composition crude fiber, crude fat, ash, moisture content and dry matter were not statistically significant between treatments (p ˃0.05). In accordance with the results, it was found that the organic fertilizer is the best fertilizer for CO-3 in terms of growth parameters and crude protein content.

Keywords: Fertilizer, growth parameters, Hybrid Napier CO-3, proximate composition.

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Authors: Siddharth Ahuja, T. M. Muruganandam

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An analytical investigation is performed to study the unsteady response of a one-dimensional, non-linear dynamic shock system to external downstream pressure perturbations in a supersonic flow in a varying area duct. For a given pressure ratio across a wind tunnel, the normal shock's location can be computed as per one-dimensional steady gas dynamics. Similarly, for some other pressure ratio, the location of the normal shock will change accordingly, again computed using one-dimensional gas dynamics. This investigation focuses on the small-time interval between the first steady shock location and the new steady shock location (corresponding to different pressure ratios). In essence, this study aims to shed light on the motion of the shock from one steady location to another steady location. Further, this study aims to create the foundation of the Unsteady Gas Dynamics field enabling further insight in future research work. According to the new pressure ratio, a pressure pulse, generated at the exit of the tunnel which travels and perturbs the shock from its original position, setting it into motion. During such activity, other numerous physical phenomena also happen at the same time. However, three broad phenomena have been focused on, in this study - Traversal of a Wave, Fluid Element Interactions and Wave Interactions. The above mentioned three phenomena create, alter and kill numerous waves for different conditions. The waves which are created by the above-mentioned phenomena eventually interact with the shock and set it into motion. Numerous such interactions with the shock will slowly make it settle into its final position owing to the new pressure ratio across the duct, as estimated by one-dimensional gas dynamics. This analysis will be extremely helpful in the prediction of inlet 'unstart' of the flow in a supersonic engine intake and its prominence with the incoming flow Mach number, incoming flow pressure and the external perturbation pressure is also studied to help design more efficient supersonic intakes for engines like ramjets and scramjets.

Keywords: Analytical investigation, compression and expansion waves, fluid element interactions, shock trajectory, supersonic flow, unsteady gas dynamics, varying area duct, wave interactions.

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Authors: L. R. Ferreira, R. Biscaro, C. C. Danziger, C. M. Galhardi, L. C. Biscaro, R. C. Biscaro, I. S. Vasconcelos, L. C. R. Ferreira, R. Reis, L. H. Oliveira

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Introduction: There is a worldwide trend for the employer to be aware of investing in health promotion that goes beyond occupational hygiene approaches with the implementation of a comprehensive program with integration between occupational health and safety, and social/psychosocial responsibility in the workplace. Work accommodation is a necessity in most companies as it allows the worker to return to its function respecting its physical limitations. This study had the objective to verify if the integration of health and safety in the companies, with the inclusion of the concept of TWH promoted by an occupational health service has impacted in the management of absenteeism of workers in work accommodation. Method: A retrospective and paired cohort study was used, in which the impact of the implementation of the Program for the Health/Safety Integration and Total Worker Health Concept (PHSITWHC) was evaluated using the indices of absenteeism, health attestations, days and hours of sick leave of workers that underwent job accommodation/rehabilitation. This was a cohort study and the data were collected from January to September of 2017, prior to the initiation of the integration program, and compared with the data obtained from January to September of 2018, after the implementation of the program. For the statistical analysis, the student's t-test was used, with statistically significant differences being made at p < 0.05. Results: The results showed a 35% reduction in the number of absenteeism rate in 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. There was also a significant reduction in the total numbers of days of attestations/absences (mean of 2,8) as well as days of attestations, absence and sick leaves (mean of 5,2) in 2018 data after the implementation of PHSITWHC compared to 2017 data, means of 4,3 and 25,1, respectively, prior to the program. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the inclusion of the PHSITWHC was associated with a reduction in the rate of absenteeism of workers that underwent job accommodation. It was observed that, once health and safety were approached and integrated with the inclusion of the TWH concept, it was possible to reduce absenteeism, and improve worker’s quality of life and wellness, and work accommodation management.

Keywords: Absenteeism, health/safety integration, work accommodation management, total worker health.

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Authors: D. Kreutzer, S. Müller-Abdelrazeq, I. Isenhardt

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Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach to determine the current status of companies’ transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g., IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyze the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company's (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analyzed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the number and types of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.

Keywords: Circular economy, maturity model, maturity assessment, systematic literature review.

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Authors: E. Happ, A. Albert Tóth

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The aim of the research is to investigate the forms of the demands of leisure tourism in a West-Hungarian industrial city, Győr. Today, Győr is still a traditional industrial city, its industry is mainly based on vehicle industry, but the role of tourism is increasing in the life of the city as well. Because of the industrial nature and the strong economy of the city, the ratio of business tourists is high. It can be stated that MICE tourism is dominating in Győr. Developments of the last decade can help the city with new tourism products to increase the leisure tourism. The new types of tourism – besides business tourism – can help the providers to increase the occupancy rates and the demand at the weekends. The research demonstrates the theoretical background of the topic, and it shows the present situation of the tourism in Győr with secondary data. The secondary research contains statistical data from the Hungarian Statistical Office and the city council, and it is based on the providers’ data. The next part of the paper shows the potential types of leisure tourism with the help of primary research. The primary research contains the results of an online questionnaire with a sample of 1000 potential customers. It is completed with 10 in-depth interviews with tourism experts, who explained their opinions about the opportunities of leisure tourism in Győr from the providers’ side. The online questionnaire was filled out in spring 2017 by customers, who have already stayed in Győr or plan to visit the city. At the same time in-depth interviews were made with hotel managers, head of touristic institutions and employees at the council. Based on the research it can be stated that the touristic supply of Győr allows the increase of the leisure tourism ratio in the city. Primarily, the cultural and health tourism show potential development, but the supply side of touristic services can be developed in order to increase the number of guest nights. The tourism marketing needs to be strengthened in the city, and a distinctive marketing activity - from other cities - is needed as well. To conclude, although Győr is an industrial city, it has a transforming industrial part, and tourism is also strongly present in its economy. Besides the leading role of business tourism, different types of leisure tourism have the opportunity to take place in the city.

Keywords: Business Tourism, Győr, industrial city, leisure tourism, touristic demand.

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Authors: Sylvain Chardon, Timotéo Payre, Hugo Grardel, Yann Quentel, Mathieu Thomachot, Gérald Aigouy, Frank Claeyssen

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With the increasing digitalization of society, access to data has become vital and strategic for individuals and nations. In this context, the number of satellite constellation projects is growing drastically worldwide and is a next-generation challenge of the New Space industry. So far, existing satellite constellations have been using radio frequencies (RF) for satellite-to-ground communications, inter-satellite communications, and feeder link communication. However, RF has several limitations, such as limited bandwidth and low protection level. To address these limitations, space optical communication will be the new trend, addressing both very high-speed and secured encrypted communication. Fast Steering Mirrors (FSM) are key components used in optical communication as well as space imagery and for a large field of functions such as Point Ahead Mechanisms (PAM), Raster Scanning, Beam Steering Mirrors (BSM), Fine Pointing Mechanisms (FPM) and Line of Sight stabilization (LOS). The main challenges of space FSM development for optical communication are to propose both a technology and a supply chain relevant for high quantities New Space approach, which requires secured connectivity for high-speed internet, Earth planet observation and monitoring, and mobility applications. CTEC proposes a mini-FSM technology offering a stroke of +/-6 mrad and a resonant frequency of 1700 Hz, with a mass of 50 g. This FSM mechanism is a good candidate for giant constellations and all applications on board NanoSats and CubeSats, featuring a very high level of miniaturization and optimized for New Space high quantities cost efficiency. The use of piezo actuators offers a high resonance frequency for optimal control, with almost zero power consumption in step and stay pointing, and with very high-reliability figures > 0,995 demonstrated over years of recurrent manufacturing for Optronics applications at CTEC.

Keywords: Fast steering mirror, feeder link, line of sight stabilization, optical communication, pointing ahead mechanism, raster scan.

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: Border of the universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps.

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Authors: Meng-Cong Zheng, Yu-Sheng Chen

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The meeting behavior is a pervasive kind of interaction, which often occurs between the passenger and the shuttle. However, the meeting point set up at the Taoyuan International Airport is too far from the entry-exit, often causing passengers to stop searching near the entry-exit. When the number of people waiting for the rush hour increases, it often results in chaos in the waiting area. This study tried to find out what is the key factor to promote the rapid finding of each other between the passengers and the pick-ups. Then we implemented several design proposals to improve the meeting behavior of passengers and pick-ups based on behavior mapping and post-occupancy evaluation to enhance their meeting efficiency in unfamiliar environments. The research base is the reception hall of the second terminal of Taoyuan International Airport. Behavioral observation and mapping are implemented on the entry of inbound passengers into the welcome space, including the crowd distribution of the people who rely on the separation wall in the waiting area, the behavior of meeting and the interaction between the inbound passengers and the pick-ups. Then we redesign the space planning and signage design based on post-occupancy evaluation to verify the effectiveness of space plan and signage design. This study found that passengers ignore existing meeting-point designs which are placed on distant pillars at both ends. The position of the screen affects the area where the receiver is stranded, causing the pick-ups to block the passenger's moving line. The pick-ups prefer to wait where it is easy to watch incoming passengers and where it is closest to the mode of transport they take when leaving. Large visitors tend to gather next to landmarks, and smaller groups have a wide waiting area in the lobby. The location of the meeting point chosen by the pick-ups is related to the view of the incoming passenger. Finally, this study proposes an improved design of the meeting point, setting the traffic information in it, so that most passengers can see the traffic information when they enter the country. At the same time, we also redesigned the pick-ups desk to improve the efficiency of passenger meeting.

Keywords: Meeting point design, post-occupancy evaluation, behavioral mapping, international airport.

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Authors: Eryati Darwin, Eka Fithra Elfi, Indria Hafizah

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Background: Physical exercise induces a pattern of hormonal and immunological responses that prevent endothelial dysfunction by maintaining the availability of nitric oxide (NO). Regular and moderate exercise stimulates NO release, that can be considered as protective factor of cardiovascular diseases, while strenuous exercise induces increased levels in a number of pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines. Pro-inflammatory cytokines tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) triggers endothelial activation which results in an increased vascular permeability. Nuclear gene factor kappa B (NF-κB) activates biological effect of TNF-α. Aim of Study: To determine the effect of physical exercise on the endothelial and skeletal muscle, we measured the level of NF-κB on rats’ serum, macrophages, and myocytes after strenuous physical exercise. Methods: 30 male Rattus norvegicus in the age of eight weeks were randomly divided into five groups (each containing six), and there were treated groups (T) and control group (C). The treated groups obtain strenuous physical exercise by ran on treadmill at 32 m/minutes for 1 hour or until exhaustion. Blood samples, myocytes of gastrocnemius muscle, and intraperitoneal macrophages were collected sequentially. There were investigated immediately, 2 hours, 6 hours, and 24 hours (T1, T2, T3, and T4) after sacrifice. The levels of NF-κB were measured by ELISA methods. Results: From our study, we found that the levels of NF-κB on myocytes in treated group from which its specimen was taken immediately (T1), 2 hours after treadmill (T2), and 6 hours after treadmill (T3) were significantly higher than control group (p<0.05), while the group from which its specimen was taken 24 hours after treadmill, was no significantly different (p>0.05). Also on macrophages, NF-κB in treated groups T1, T2, and T3 was significantly higher than control group (p<0.05), but there was no difference between T4 and control group (p>0.05). The level of serum NF-κB was not significantly different between treatment group as well as compared to control group (p>0.05). Serum NF-κB was significantly higher than the level on macrophages and myocytes (p<0.05). Conclusion: This study demonstrated that strenuous physical exercise stimulates the activation of NF-κB that plays a role in vascular inflammation and muscular damage, and may be recovered after resting period.

Keywords: Endothelial function, inflammation, NF-κB, physical exercise.

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Authors: Hasan Taştan, Ayşen Ciravoğlu

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The rapid growth of the human population and the environmental degradation associated with increased consumption of resources raises concerns on sustainability. Social sustainability constitutes one of the three dimensions of sustainability together with environmental and economic dimensions. Even though there is not an agreement on what social sustainability consists of, it is a well known fact that it necessitates user participation. The fore, this study aims to observe and analyze the role of user participation on social sustainability. In this paper, the links between user participation and indicators of social sustainability have been searched. In order to achieve this, first of all a literature review on social sustainability has been done; accordingly, the information obtained from researches has been used in the evaluation of the projects conducted in the developing countries considering user participation. These examples are taken as role models with pros and cons for the development of the checklist for the evaluation of the case studies. Furthermore, a case study over the post earthquake residential settlements in Turkey have been conducted. The case study projects are selected considering different building scales (differing number of residential units), scale of the problem (post-earthquake settlements, rehabilitation of shanty dwellings) and the variety of users (differing socio-economic dimensions). Decisionmaking, design, building and usage processes of the selected projects and actors of these processes have been investigated in the context of social sustainability. The cases include: New Gourna Village by Hassan Fathy, Quinta Monroy dwelling units conducted in Chile by Alejandro Aravena and Beyköy and Beriköy projects in Turkey aiming to solve the problem of housing which have appeared after the earthquake happened in 1999 have been investigated. Results of the study possible links between social sustainability indicators and user participation and links between user participation and the peculiarities of place. Results are compared and discussed in order to find possible solutions to form social sustainability through user participation. Results show that social sustainability issues depend on communities' characteristics, socio-economic conditions and user profile but user participation has positive effects on some social sustainability indicators like user satisfaction, a sense of belonging and social stability.

Keywords: Housing projects, Residential areas, Social sustainability, User participation.

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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