Search results for: electricity markets
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 573

Search results for: electricity markets

543 Dynamic Interrelationship among the Stock Markets of India, Pakistan and United States

Authors: A. Iqbal, N. Khalid, S. Rafiq

Abstract:

The interrelationship between international stock markets has been a key study area among the financial market researchers for international portfolio management and risk measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity market of USA and emerging markets of Pakistan and India using daily data covering the period of January 2003–December 2009. The study utilizes Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988) and Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990) cointegration procedure for long run relationship and Granger-causality tests based on Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) methodology. No cointegration was found among stock markets of USA, Pakistan and India, while Granger-causality test showed the evidence of unidirectional causality running from New York stock exchange to Bombay and Karachi stock exchanges.

Keywords: Causality, Cointegration, India, Pakistan, Stock Markets, US.

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542 Day Type Identification for Algerian Electricity Load using Kohonen Maps

Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

Abstract:

Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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541 Global Electricity Consumption Estimation Using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Authors: E.Assareh, M.A. Behrang, R. Assareh, N. Hedayat

Abstract:

An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Fossil Fuels, Electricity, Forecasting.

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540 Electricity Power Planning: the Role of Wind Energy

Authors: Paula Ferreira, Madalena Araújo, M.E.J. O’Kelly

Abstract:

Combining energy efficiency with renewable energy sources constitutes a key strategy for a sustainable future. The wind power sector stands out as a fundamental element for the achievement of the European renewable objectives and Portugal is no exception to the increase of the wind energy for the electricity generation. This work proposes an optimization model for the long range electricity power planning in a system similar to the Portuguese one, where the expected impacts of the increasing installed wind power on the operating performance of thermal power plants are taken into account. The main results indicate that the increasing penetration of wind power in the electricity system will have significant effects on the combined cycle gas power plants operation and on the theoretically expected cost reduction and environmental gains. This research demonstrated the need to address the impact that energy sources with variable output may have, not only on the short-term operational planning, but especially on the medium to long range planning activities, in order to meet the strategic objectives for the energy sector.

Keywords: Wind power, electricity planning model, cost, emissions.

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539 Applications of Stable Distributions in Time Series Analysis, Computer Sciences and Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi, Parvin Baradaran Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.

Keywords: stable distribution, SaS, infinite variance, heavy tail networks, VaR.

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538 Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets

Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

Abstract:

Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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537 Influence of Distributed Generation on Congestion and LMP in Competitive Electricity Market

Authors: Durga Gautam, Mithulananthan Nadarajah

Abstract:

This paper presents the influence of distributed generation (DG) on congestion and locational marginal price (LMP) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement to manage congestion and reduce LMP is formulated for the objective of social welfare maximization. From competitive electricity market standpoint, DGs have great value when they reduce load in particular locations and at particular times when feeders are heavily loaded. The paper lies on the groundwork that solution to optimal mix of generation and transmission resources can be achieved by addressing congestion and corresponding LMP. Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Specific grid locations are examined to study the influence of DG penetration on congestion and corresponding shadow prices. The influence of DG on congestion and locational marginal prices has been demonstrated in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system.

Keywords: Congestion management, distributed generation, electricity market, locational marginal price, optimal power flow, social welfare.

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536 Similar Cultural Factors Compensate for Communication Problems in Japan's Software Globalization Business

Authors: Phong Tran

Abstract:

A research effort to find the reality of the business of Japan-s software globalization of enterprise-level business software systems has found that while the number of Japan-made enterpriselevel software systems is comparable with those of the other G7 countries, the business is limited to the East and Southeast Asian markets. This indicates that this business has a problem in the European and USA markets. Based on the knowledge that the research has established, the research concludes that the communication problems arise from the lack of individualists' communication styles and foreign language skills in Japan's software globalization is compensated by similarities in certain Japanese cultural factors and Japan's cultural power in the East and Southeast Asian markets and that this business does not have this compensation factor in the European and American markets due to dissimilarities and no cultural power.

Keywords: Cultural factors, global business, Japan, software globalization.

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535 Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach

Authors: L. L. Ivy-Yap, H. A. Bekhet

Abstract:

As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 period. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationarity of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modelled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.

Keywords: Co-integration, Elasticity, Granger causality, Malaysia, Residential electricity consumption.

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534 Comparative Analysis of Concentration in Insurance Markets in New EU Member States

Authors: T. Pavic Kramaric, M. Kitic

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to analyze the market structure as well as the degree of concentration in insurance markets in new EU member states. The analysis was conducted using several most commonly used concentration indicators such as concentration ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman index and entropy index. These indicators were calculated for the 2000-2010 period on the basis of total gross written premium as the most relevant indicator of market power in insurance markets. The results of the analysis showed that in all observed countries the level of concentration decreased, though with significantly different intensity. Yet, in some countries, the level of concentration remains very high.

Keywords: insurance market, concentration, new EU member states

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533 The Relationship between the Environmental and Financial Performance of Australian Electricity Producers

Authors: S. Forughi, A. De Zoysa, S. Bhati

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the environmental performance of the companies in the electricity-producing sector and its relationship with their financial performance. We will review the major studies that examined the relationship between the environmental and financial performance of firms in various industries. While the classical economic debates consider the environmental friendly activities costly and harmful to a firm’s profitability, it is claimed that firms will be rewarded with higher profitability in long run through the investments in environmental friendly activities. In this context, prior studies have examined the relationship between the environmental and financial performance of firms operating in different industry sectors. Our study will employ an environmental indicator to increase the accuracy of the results and be employed as an independent variable in our developed econometric model to evaluate the impact of the financial performance of the firms on their environmental friendly activities in the context of companies operating in the Australian electricity-producing sector. As a result, we expect our methodology to contribute to the literature and the findings of the study will help us to provide recommendations and policy implications to the electricity producers.

Keywords: Australian electricity sector, efficiency measurement, environmental-financial performance interaction, environmental index.

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532 Hydrogen Production at the Forecourt from Off-Peak Electricity and Its Role in Balancing the Grid

Authors: Abdulla Rahil, Rupert Gammon, Neil Brown

Abstract:

The rapid growth of renewable energy sources and their integration into the grid have been motivated by the depletion of fossil fuels and environmental issues. Unfortunately, the grid is unable to cope with the predicted growth of renewable energy which would lead to its instability. To solve this problem, energy storage devices could be used. Electrolytic hydrogen production from an electrolyser is considered a promising option since it is a clean energy source (zero emissions). Choosing flexible operation of an electrolyser (producing hydrogen during the off-peak electricity period and stopping at other times) could bring about many benefits like reducing the cost of hydrogen and helping to balance the electric systems. This paper investigates the price of hydrogen during flexible operation compared with continuous operation, while serving the customer (hydrogen filling station) without interruption. The optimization algorithm is applied to investigate the hydrogen station in both cases (flexible and continuous operation). Three different scenarios are tested to see whether the off-peak electricity price could enhance the reduction of the hydrogen cost. These scenarios are: Standard tariff (1 tier system) during the day (assumed 12 p/kWh) while still satisfying the demand for hydrogen; using off-peak electricity at a lower price (assumed 5 p/kWh) and shutting down the electrolyser at other times; using lower price electricity at off-peak times and high price electricity at other times. This study looks at Derna city, which is located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea (32° 46′ 0 N, 22° 38′ 0 E) with a high potential for wind resource. Hourly wind speed data which were collected over 24½ years from 1990 to 2014 were in addition to data on hourly radiation and hourly electricity demand collected over a one-year period, together with the petrol station data.

Keywords: Hydrogen filling station off-peak electricity, renewable energy, off-peak electricity, electrolytic hydrogen.

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531 Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures and Their Consequences

Authors: Aleksandra Nocoń (Szunke)

Abstract:

The study is a review of the literature concerning the consequences of non-standard monetary policy, which are used by central banks during unconventional periods, threatening banking sector instability. In particular, the attention was paid to the effects of non-standard monetary policy tools for financial markets. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for financial markets is still not final. The main aim of the study is to survey consequences of standard and non-standard monetary policy instruments, implemented during the global financial crisis in the United States, United Kingdom and euro area, with particular attention to the results for the stabilization of global financial markets. The study consists mainly of the empirical review, indicating the impact of the implementation of these tools for financial markets. The following research methods were used in the study: literature studies, including domestic and foreign literature, cause and effect analysis and statistical analysis.

Keywords: Asset purchase facility, consequences of monetary policy instruments, non-standard monetary policy, Quantitative Easing.

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530 Electrolysis Ship for Green Hydrogen Production and Possible Applications

Authors: Julian David Hunt, Andreas Nascimento

Abstract:

Green hydrogen is the most environmental, renewable alternative to produce hydrogen. However, an important challenge to make hydrogen a competitive energy carrier is a constant supply of renewable energy, such as solar, wind and hydropower. Given that the electricity generation potential of these sources vary seasonally and interannually, this paper proposes installing an electrolysis hydrogen production plant in a ship and move the ship to the locations where electricity is cheap, or where the seasonal potential for renewable generation is high. An example of electrolysis ship application is to produce green hydrogen with hydropower from the North region of Brazil and then sail to the Northeast region of Brazil and generate hydrogen using excess electricity from offshore wind power. The electrolysis ship concept is interesting because it has the flexibility to produce green hydrogen using the cheapest renewable electricity available in the market.

Keywords: Green hydrogen, electrolysis ship, renewable energies, seasonal variations.

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529 Is the Liberalization Policy Effective on Improving the Bivariate Cointegration of Current Accounts, Foreign Exchange, Stock Prices? Further Evidence from Asian Markets

Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo

Abstract:

This paper fist examines three set of bivariate cointegrations between any two of current accounts, stock markets, and currency exchange markets in ten Asian countries. Furthermore, we examined the effect of country characters on this bivariate cointegration. Our findings suggest that for three sets of cointegration test, each sample country at least exists one cointegration. India consistently exhibited a bi-directional causal relationship between any two of three indicators. Unlike Pan et al. (2007) and Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (2005), we found that such cointegration is influenced by three characteristics: capital control; flexibility in foreign exchange rates; and the ratio of trade to GDP. These characteristics are the result of liberalization in each Asian country. This implies that liberalization policies are effective on improving the cointegration between any two of financial markets and current account for ten Asian countries.

Keywords: Current account, stock price, foreign exchange rate, country characteristics, bivariate cointegration, bi-directional causal relationships.

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528 An Application of Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Measurement Approach in Frontier Markets

Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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527 Implementation of Neural Network Based Electricity Load Forecasting

Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw

Abstract:

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.

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526 Impact of Regulation on Trading in Financial Derivatives in Europe

Authors: H. Florianová, J. Nešleha

Abstract:

Financial derivatives are considered to be risky investment instruments which could possibly bring another financial crisis. As prevention, European Union and its member states have released new legal acts adjusting this area of law in recent years. There have been several cases in history of capital markets worldwide where it was shown that legislature may affect behavior of subjects on capital markets. In our paper we analyze main events on selected European stock exchanges in order to apply them on three chosen markets - Czech capital market represented by Prague Stock Exchange, German capital market represented by Deutsche Börse and Polish capital market represented by Warsaw Stock Exchange. We follow time series of development of the sum of listed derivatives on these three stock exchanges in order to evaluate popularity of those exchanges. Afterwards we compare newly listed derivatives in relation to the speed of development of these exchanges. We also make a comparison between trends in derivatives and shares development. We explain how a legal regulation may affect situation on capital markets. If the regulation is too strict, potential investors or traders are not willing to undertake it and move to other markets. On the other hand, if the regulation is too vague, trading scandals occur and the market is not reliable from the prospect of potential investors or issuers. We see that making the regulation stricter usually discourages subjects to stay on the market immediately although making the regulation vaguer to interest more subjects is usually much slower process.

Keywords: Capital markets, financial derivatives, investors' behavior, regulation.

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525 The Effect of Energy Consumption and Losses on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from the ARDL Approach

Authors: Okezie A. Ihugba

Abstract:

The bounds testing ARDL (2, 2, 2, 2, 0) technique to cointegration was used in this study to investigate the effect of energy consumption and energy loss on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2020. The model was created to determine the relationship between these three variables while also accounting for interactions with control variables such as inflation and commercial bank loans to the manufacturing sector. When the dependent variables are energy consumption and energy loss, the bound tests show that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run. Because electricity consumption is a critical factor in determining manufacturing value-added in Nigeria, some intriguing observations were made. According to the findings, the relationship between log of electricity consumption (LELC) and log of manufacturing value added (LMVA) is statistically significant. According to the findings, electricity consumption reduces manufacturing value-added. The target variable (energy loss) is statistically significant and has a positive sign. In Nigeria, a 1% reduction in energy loss increases manufacturing value-added by 36% in the first lag and 35% in the second. According to the study, the government should speed up the ongoing renovation of existing power plants across the country, as well as the construction of new gas-fired power plants. This will address a number of issues, including overpricing of electricity as a result of grid failure.

Keywords: ARDL, cointegration, Nigeria's manufacturing, electricity.

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524 Feasibility Study of Air Conditioners Operated by Solar Energy in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Eman Simbawa, Budur Alasmri, Hanan Munahir, Hanin Munahir

Abstract:

Solar energy has become currently the subject of attention around the world and is undergoing many researches and studies. Using solar energy, which is a renewable energy, is aligned with the Saudi Vision 2030. People are more aware of it and are starting to use it more for environmental and economical reasons. A questionnaire was conducted in this paper to measure the awareness of people in Saudi Arabia regarding solar energy and their attitude towards it. Then, two kinds of air conditioners (one powered by electricity only and one powered by solar panels and electricity) are compared in terms of their cost over a period of 20 years. This will help the users to decide which kind of device to use depending on its cost. The result shows that as the electricity tariffs in Saudi Arabia increases, depending on the sector, the solar air conditioner is cheaper. In fact, if the tariff in the future increases to reach 50 Halalah/kWh, the solar air conditioner is more economical. This will influence users to buy more solar powered devices, and it will decrease the consumption of electricity. Therefore, the dependence on oil will decrease.

Keywords: Air conditioner, solar energy, photovoltaic cells, present value.

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523 Role of Non-Renewable and Renewable Energy for Sustainable Electricity Generation in Malaysia

Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Nor Hamisham Harun

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to give a comprehensive review of non-renewable energy and renewable energy utilization in Malaysia, including hydropower, solar photovoltaic, biomass and biogas technologies. Malaysia mainly depends on non-renewable energy (natural gas, coal and crude oil) for electricity generation. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the energy sector and discusses diversification of electricity generation as a strategy for providing sustainable energy in Malaysia. Energy policies and strategies to protect the non-renewable energy utilization also are highlighted, focusing in the different sources of energy available for high and sustained economic growth. Emphasis is also placed on a discussion of the role of renewable energy as an alternative source for the increase of electricity supply security. It is now evident that to achieve sustainable development through renewable energy, energy policies and strategies have to be well designed and supported by the government, industries (firms), and individual or community participation. The hope is to create a positive impact on sustainable development through renewable sources for current and future generations.

Keywords: Malaysia, non-renewable energy, renewable energy, sustainable energy.

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522 Exploration of Sweet Potato Cultivar Markets Availability in North West Province, South Africa

Authors: V. M. Mmbengwa, J. R. M. Mabuso, C. P. Du Plooy, S. Laurrie, H. D. van Schalkwyk

Abstract:

Sweet potato products are necessary for the provision of essential nutrients in every household, regardless of their poverty status. Their consumption appears to be highly influenced by socioeconomic factors, such as malnutrition, food insecurity and unemployment. Therefore, market availability is crucial for these cultivars to resolve some of the socio-economic factors. The aim of the study was to investigate market availability of sweet potato cultivars in the North West Province. In this study, both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies were used. Qualitative methodology was used to explain the quantitative outcomes of the variables. On the other hand, quantitative results were used to test the hypothesis. The study used SPSS software to analyse the data. Crosstabulation and Chi-square statistics were used to obtain the descriptive and inferential analyses, respectively. The study found that the Blesbok cultivar is dominating the markets of the North West Province, with the Monate cultivar dominating in the Bojanala Platinum (75%) and Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati (25%) districts. It is also found that a unit increase in the supply of sweet potato cultivars in both local and district municipal markets is accompanied by a reduced demand of 28% and 33% at district and local markets, respectively. All these results were found to be significant at p<0.05. The results further revealed that in four out of nine local municipality markets, the Blesbok cultivar seems to be solely available in those four local municipal markets of North West Province. It can be concluded that Blesbok, relative to other cultivars, is the most commercialised sweet potato variety and that consumers across this Province are highly aware of it. For other cultivars to assume market prominence in this Province, a well-designed marketing campaign for creating awareness may be required. This campaign may be based on nutritional advantages of different cultivars, of which Blesbok is relatively inferior, compared to orange-fleshed sweet potato varieties.

Keywords: Cultivar, malnutrition, markets, sweet potato.

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521 Impact Analysis of Transportation Modal Shift on Regional Energy Consumption and Environmental Level: Focused on Electric Automobiles

Authors: Hong Bae Kim, Chang Ho Hur

Abstract:

Many governments have tried to reduce CO2 emissions which are believed to be the main cause for global warming. The deployment of electric automobiles is regarded as an effective way to reduce CO2 emissions. The Korean government has planned to deploy about 200,000 electric automobiles. The policy for the deployment of electric automobiles aims at not only decreasing gasoline consumption but also increasing electricity production. However, if an electricity consuming regions is not consistent with an electricity producing region, the policy generates environmental problems between regions. Hence, this paper has established the energy multi-region input-output model to specifically analyze the impacts of the deployment of electric automobiles on regional energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Finally, the paper suggests policy directions regarding the deployment of electric automobiles.

Keywords: Electric automobiles, CO2 emissions, regional imbalances in electricity production and consumption, energy multi-region input-output model.

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520 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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519 Optimal Choice and Location of Multi Type Facts Devices in Deregulated Electricity Market Using Evolutionary Programming Method

Authors: K. Balamurugan, R. Muralisachithanandam, V. Dharmalingam, R. Srikanth

Abstract:

This paper deals with the optimal choice and allocation of multi FACTS devices in Deregulated power system using Evolutionary Programming method. The objective is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices are simulated in this study such as UPFC, TCSC, TCPST, and SVC. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and allocation of FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market environment. The standard data of IEEE 14 Bus systems has been taken into account and simulated with aid of MAT-lab software and results were obtained.

Keywords: FACTS devices, Optimal allocation, Deregulated electricity market, Evolutionary programming, Mat Lab.

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518 Evaluation of Sustainable Business Model Innovation in Increasing the Penetration of Renewable Energy in the Ghana Power Sector

Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

Abstract:

Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to the unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. Thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically 'vertically integrated', with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is the need for increasing renewable energy such as wind and solar in the electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allow any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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517 Studies on the Feasibility of Cow Dung as a Non-Conventional Energy Source

Authors: Raj Kumar Rajak, Bharat Mishra

Abstract:

Bio-batteries represent an entirely new long-term, reasonable, reachable and ecofriendly approach to produce sustainable energy. In the present experimental work, we have studied the effect of generation of power by bio-battery using different electrode pairs. The tests show that it is possible to generate electricity using cow dung as an electrolyte. C-Mg electrode pair shows maximum voltage and SCC (Short Circuit Current) while C-Zn electrode pair shows less OCV (Open Circuit Voltage) and SCC. We have chosen C-Zn electrodes because Mg electrodes are not economical. By the studies of different electrodes and cow dung, it is found that C-Zn electrode battery is more suitable. This result shows that the bio-batteries have the potency to full fill the need of electricity demand for lower energy equipment.

Keywords: Bio-batteries, electricity, cow dung, electrodes, non-conventional.

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516 Matching Farmer Competence and Farm Resources with the Transformation of Agri-Food Marketing Systems

Authors: Bhawat Chiamjinnawat

Abstract:

The agri-food market transformation has implied market growth for the fruit industry in Thailand. This article focuses on analysis of farmer competence and farm resources which affect market strategies used by fruit farmers in Chanthaburi province of Thailand. The survey data were collected through the use of face-to-face interviews with structured questionnaires. This study identified 14 drivers related to farmer competence and farm resources of which some had significant effect on the decision to use either high-value markets or traditional markets. The results suggest that farmers who used high-value markets were better educated and they had longer experience and larger sized business. Identifying the important factors that match with the market transformation provides policy with opportunities to support the fruit farmers to increase their market power. Policies that promote business expansion of agricultural cooperatives and knowledge sharing among farmers are recommended to reduce limitations due to limited knowledge, low experience, and small business sizes.

Keywords: Farmer competence, farm resources, fruit industry, high-value markets, Thailand.

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515 Technological Environment - International Marketing Strategy Relationship

Authors: Suthawan Chirapanda

Abstract:

International trade involves both large and small firms engaged in business overseas. Possible drivers that force companies to enter international markets include increasing competition at the domestic market, maturing domestic markets, and limited domestic market opportunities. Technology is an important driving factor in shaping international marketing strategy as well as in driving force towards a more global marketplace, especially technology in communication. It includes telephones, the internet, computer systems and e-mail. There are three main marketing strategy choices, namely standardization approach, adaptation approach and middleof- the-road approach that companies implement to overseas markets. The decision depends on situations and factors facing the companies in the international markets. In this paper, the contingency concept is considered that no single strategy can be effective in all contexts. The effect of strategy on performance depends on specific situational variables. Strategic fit is employed to investigate export marketing strategy adaptation under certain environmental conditions, which in turn can lead to superior performance.

Keywords: Contingency approach, international marketing strategy, strategic fit, technological environment

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514 Does the Adoption of IFRS Influence Earnings Management towards Small Positive Profits? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Sawcen Chebaane, Hakim Ben Othman

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on the frequency of earnings managements towards small positive profits. We focus on two emerging markets IFRS adopters: South Africa and Turkey. We tested our logistic regression using appropriate panelestimation techniques over a sample of 330 South African and 210 Turkish firm-year observations over the period 2002-2008. Our results document that mandatory adoption of IFRS is not associated with a reduction in earnings management towards small positive profits in emerging markets. These results contradict most of the previous findings of the studies conducted in developed countries. Based on the legal system factor, we compare the intensity of earnings management between a code law country (Turkey) and a common law country (South Africa) over the pre and post-adoption periods. Our findings show that the frequency of such earnings management practice increases significantly for the code law country.

Keywords: Civil law, common law, emerging markets, Mandatory IFRS adoption, small positive profits.

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