Search results for: delivery reliability

Authors: Kevser Simsek, Rahime Gunay

Abstract:

In this paper, we focused primarily on Istanbul data that is gathered by using intelligent transportation systems (ITS), and considered the developments in traffic information delivery and future applications that are being planned for implementation. Since traffic congestion is increasing and travel times are becoming less consistent and less predictable, traffic information delivery has become a critical issue. Considering the fuel consumption and wasted time in traffic, advanced traffic information systems are becoming increasingly valuable which enables travelers to plan their trips more accurately and easily.

Keywords: Data Fusion, Istanbul, ITS, Real Time Information, Traffic Information, Travel Time, Urban Mobility

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life-cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: Initial Cost, Life-cycle cost, Maintenance Cost, Reliability.

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Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Mayank Dave

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The issue of real-time and reliable report delivery is extremely important for taking effective decision in a real world mission critical Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) based application. The sensor data behaves differently in many ways from the data in traditional databases. WSNs need a mechanism to register, process queries, and disseminate data. In this paper we propose an architectural framework for data placement and management. We propose a reliable and real time approach for data placement and achieving data integrity using self organized sensor clusters. Instead of storing information in individual cluster heads as suggested in some protocols, in our architecture we suggest storing of information of all clusters within a cell in the corresponding base station. For data dissemination and action in the wireless sensor network we propose to use Action and Relay Stations (ARS). To reduce average energy dissipation of sensor nodes, the data is sent to the nearest ARS rather than base station. We have designed our architecture in such a way so as to achieve greater energy savings, enhanced availability and reliability.

Keywords: Cluster head, data reliability, real time communication, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Seyed Ali Sadat Noori, Elham Sahebi Bazaz

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Topological changes in mobile ad hoc networks frequently render routing paths unusable. Such recurrent path failures have detrimental effects on quality of service. A suitable technique for eliminating this problem is to use multiple backup paths between the source and the destination in the network. This paper proposes an effective and efficient protocol for backup and disjoint path set in ad hoc wireless network. This protocol converges to a highly reliable path set very fast with no message exchange overhead. The paths selection according to this algorithm is beneficial for mobile ad hoc networks, since it produce a set of backup paths with more high reliability. Simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of our algorithm in terms of route numbers in the path set and its reliability. In order to acquire link reliability estimates, we use link expiration time (LET) between two nodes.

Keywords: Wireless Ad Hoc Networks, Reliability, Routing, Disjoint Path

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Authors: Phakhapong Thanitakul, Worawat Sa-ngiamvibool, Apinan Aurasopon, Saravuth Pothiya

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This paper presents an improved ant colony optimization (IACO) for solving the reliability redundancy allocation problem (RAP) in order to maximize system reliability. To improve the performance of ACO algorithm, two additional techniques, i.e. neighborhood search, and re-initialization process are presented. To show its efficiency and effectiveness, the proposed IACO is applied to solve three RAPs. Additionally, the results of the proposed IACO are compared with those of the conventional heuristic approaches i.e. genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and ant colony optimization (ACO). The experimental results show that the proposed IACO approach is comparatively capable of obtaining higher quality solution and faster computational time.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Heuristic algorithm, Mixed-integer nonlinear programming, Redundancy allocation problem, Reliability optimization.

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Khalid M. Albarkoly, Kenneth S. Park

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The substantial development of the construction industry has forced the cement industry, its major support, to focus on achieving maximum productivity to meet the growing demand for this material. This means that the reliability of a cement production system needs to be at the highest level that can be achieved by good maintenance. This paper studies the extent to which the implementation of RCM is needed as a strategy for increasing the reliability of the production systems component can be increased, thus ensuring continuous productivity. In a case study of four Libyan cement factories, 80 employees were surveyed and 12 top and middle managers interviewed. It is evident that these factories usually breakdown more often than once per month which has led to a decline in productivity. In many times they cannot achieve the minimum level of production amount. This has resulted from the poor reliability of their production systems as a result of poor or insufficient maintenance. It has been found that most of the factories’ employees misunderstand maintenance and its importance. The main cause of this problem is the lack of qualified and trained staff, but in addition it has been found that most employees are not found to be motivated as a result of a lack of management support and interest. In response to these findings, it has been suggested that the RCM strategy should be implemented in the four factories. The results show the importance of the development of maintenance strategies through the implementation of RCM in these factories. The purpose of it would be to overcome the problems that could secure the reliability of the production systems. This study could be a useful source of information for academic researchers and the industrial organizations which are still experiencing problems in maintenance practices.

Keywords: Libyan cement industry, maintenance, production, reliability centered maintenance, reliability.

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: Mean distance between failures, mileage based reliability, reliability target normalization, rolling stock reliability.

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: Rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis.

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Authors: M. Bouguerra, I. Habi

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The continuity in the electric supply of the electric installations is becoming one of the main requirements of the electric supply network (generation, transmission, and distribution of the electric energy). The achievement of this requirement depends from one side on the structure of the electric network and on the other side on the avaibility of the reserve source provided to maintain the supply in case of failure of the principal one. The avaibility of supply does not only depends on the reliability parameters of the both sources (principal and reserve) but it also depends on the reliability of the circuit breaker which plays the role of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure of the principal one. In addition, the principal source being under operation, its control can be ideal and sure, however, for the reserve source being in stop, a preventive maintenances which proceed on time intervals (periodicity) and for well defined lengths of time are envisaged, so that this source will always available in case of the principal source failure. The choice of the periodicity of preventive maintenance of the source of reserve influences directly the reliability of the electric feeder system In this work and on the basis of the semi- markovian's processes, the influence of the time of interlocking the reserve source upon the reliability of an industrial electric network is studied and is given the optimal time of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure the principal one, also the influence of the periodicity of the preventive maintenance of the source of reserve is studied and is given the optimal periodicity.

Keywords: Semi-Markovians processes, reliability, optimization, industrial electric network.

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Authors: G. Spada, E. Gavini, P. Giunchedi

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Aim of this work was to compare the efficacy of two loading methods of proteins onto polymeric nanocarriers: adsorption and encapsulation methods. Preliminary studies of protein loading were done using Bovine Serum Albumin (BSA) as model protein. Nanocarriers were prepared starting from polylactic co-glycolic acid (PLGA) polymer; production methods used are two different variants of emulsion evaporation method. Nanoparticles obtained were analyzed in terms of dimensions by Dynamic Light Scattering and Loading Efficiency of BSA by Bradford Assay. Loaded nanoparticles were then submitted to in-vitro protein dissolution test in order to study the effect of the delivery system on the release rate of the protein.

Keywords: Drug delivery, nanoparticles, PLGA, proteinadsorption, protein encapsulation.

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Authors: Yong-Jun Kim, Jae-Hyun Ro, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Because current wireless communication requires high reliability in a limited bandwidth environment, this paper proposes the variable modulation scheme based on the codebook. The variable modulation scheme adjusts transmission power using the codebook in accordance with channel state. Also, if the codebook is composed of many bits, the reliability is more improved by the proposed scheme. The simulation results show that the performance of proposed scheme has better reliability than the the performance of conventional scheme.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, variable modulation, codebook, channel state.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák

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Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack.

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Authors: Aurelija Burinskienė, Dalė Dzemydienė, Arūnas Miliauskas

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This research aims at developing the approach for more effective freight delivery and transportation process management. The road congestions and the identification of causes are important, as well as the context information recognition and management. The measure of many parameters during the transportation period and proper control of driver work became the problem. The number of vehicles per time unit passing at a given time and point for drivers can be evaluated in some situations. The collection of data is mainly used to establish new trips. The flow of the data is more complex in urban areas. Herein, the movement of freight is reported in detail, including the information on street level. When traffic density is extremely high in congestion cases, and the traffic speed is incredibly low, data transmission reaches the peak. Different data sets are generated, which depend on the type of freight delivery network. There are three types of networks: long-distance delivery networks, last-mile delivery networks and mode-based delivery networks; the last one includes different modes, in particular, railways and other networks. When freight delivery is switched from one type of the above-stated network to another, more data could be included for reporting purposes and vice versa. In this case, a significant amount of these data is used for control operations, and the problem requires an integrated methodological approach. The paper presents an approach for providing e-services for drivers by including the assessment of the multi-component infrastructure needed for delivery of freights following the network type. The construction of such a methodology is required to evaluate data flow conditions and overloads, and to minimize the time gaps in data reporting. The results obtained show the possibilities of the proposing methodological approach to support the management and decision-making processes with functionality of incorporating networking specifics, by helping to minimize the overloads in data reporting.

Keywords: Transportation networks, freight delivery, data flow, monitoring, e-services.

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Authors: E. A. Azrulhisham, Y. M. Asri, A. W. Dzuraidah, A. H. Hairul Fahmi

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a parametric distribution model in fatigue life reliability analysis dealing with variation in material properties. Service loads in terms of responsetime history signal of Belgian pave were replicated on a multi-axial spindle coupled road simulator and stress-life method was used to estimate the fatigue life of automotive stub axle. A PSN curve was obtained by monotonic tension test and two-parameter Weibull distribution function was used to acquire the mean life of the component. A Pearson system was developed to evaluate the fatigue life reliability by considering stress range intercept and slope of the PSN curve as random variables. Considering normal distribution of fatigue strength, it is found that the fatigue life of the stub axle to have the highest reliability between 10000 – 15000 cycles. Taking into account the variation of material properties associated with the size effect, machining and manufacturing conditions, the method described in this study can be effectively applied in determination of probability of failure of mass-produced parts.

Keywords: Stub axle, Fatigue life reliability, Stress-life, PSN curve, Weibull distribution, Pearson system

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Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri

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In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.

Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.

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Authors: V. V. Singh, Yusuf Ibrahim Gwanda, Rajesh Prasad

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In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as a local server). Observing the different possibilities of the functioning of the CC, the analysis has been done to evaluate the various popular measures of reliability such as availability, reliability, mean time to failure (MTTF), profit analysis due to the operation of the system. The system can ultimately fail due to the failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when a local server fails. The failed devices have restored according to Least Recently Used (LRU) techniques. The system can also fail entirely due to a cooling failure of the server, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire tsunami, etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant and follow exponential time distribution, while the repair follows two types of distributions: i.e. general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula distribution.

Keywords: Reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data center.

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Authors: Steven R. Hawks

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The Master-s of Public Health (MPH) degree is growing in popularity among a number of higher education institutions throughout the world as a distance education graduate program. This paper offers an overview of program design and development strategies that promote successful distance delivery of MPH programs. Design and development challenges are discussed in terms of type of distance delivery, accreditation, student demand, faculty development, user needs, course content, and marketing strategies. The ongoing development of a distance education MPH program at Utah State University will be used to highlight and consider various aspects of this important but challenging process.

Keywords: Public health, course content, distance education, higher education, graduate students.

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Authors: Sui Xin, Li Chunsheng, Tian Di

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Short message integrated distributed monitoring systems (SM-DMS) are growing rapidly in wireless communication applications in various areas, such as electromagnetic field (EMF) management, wastewater monitoring, and air pollution supervision, etc. However, delay in short messages often makes the data embedded in SM-DMS transmit unreliably. Moreover, there are few regulations dealing with this problem in SMS transmission protocols. In this study, based on the analysis of the command and data requirements in the SM-DMS, we developed a processing model for the control center to solve the delay problem in data transmission. Three components of the model: the data transmission protocol, the receiving buffer pool method, and the timer mechanism were described in detail. Discussions on adjusting the threshold parameter in the timer mechanism were presented for the adaptive performance during the runtime of the SM-DMS. This model optimized the data transmission reliability in SM-DMS, and provided a supplement to the data transmission reliability protocols at the application level.

Keywords: Delay, SMS, reliability, distributed monitoringsystem (DMS), wireless communication.

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Authors: B. Juhasova, I. Halenar, M. Juhas

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The wireless communication is one of the widely used methods of data transfer at the present days. The benefit of this communication method is the partial independence of the infrastructure and the possibility of mobility. In some special applications it is the only way how to connect. This paper presents some problems in the implementation of a sensor network connection for measuring environmental parameters in the area of manufacturing plants.

Keywords: Network, communication, reliability, sensors.

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Authors: Tirthankar Ghosh, Dilip Roy, Nimai Kumar Chandra

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Sometime it is difficult to determine the exact reliability for complex systems in analytical procedures. Approximate solution of this problem can be provided through discretization of random variables. In this paper we describe the usefulness of discretization of a random variable using the reversed hazard rate function of its continuous version. Discretization of the exponential distribution has been demonstrated. Applications of this approach have also been cited. Numerical calculations indicate that the proposed approach gives very good approximation of reliability of complex systems under stress-strength set-up. The performance of the proposed approach is better than the existing discrete concentration method of discretization. This approach is conceptually simple, handles analytic intractability and reduces computational time. The approach can be applied in manufacturing industries for producing high-reliable items.

Keywords: Discretization, Reversed Hazard Rate, Exponential distribution, reliability approximation, engineering item.

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Authors: Wan Hasrulnizzam Wan Mahmood, Mohd Razali Muhamad, Nurulain Mat Tahar

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This paper is prepared to provide a review of how an automotive manufacturer, ISUZU HICOM Malaysia Co. Ltd. sustained the supply chain management after business process reengineering in 2007. One of the authors is currently undergoing industrial attachment and has spent almost 6 months researching in the production and operation management system of the company. This study was carried out as part of the tasks in the attachment program. The result shows that delivery lateness and outsourcing are the main barriers that affected productivity. From the gap analysis, the authors found that new business process operation had improved suppliers delivery performance.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management, Business Process Re- Engineering, Delivery, Outsourcing, Automotive Manufacturer.

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Authors: Rajasekhar Mamilla, Janardhana G., Anjan Babu G.

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The present research study analyses the students’ satisfaction with university performance regarding the reliability dimension, ability of professors and staff to perform the promised services with quality to students in the post-graduate courses offered by Sri Venkateswara University in India. The research is done with the notion that the student compares the perceived performance with prior expectations. Customer satisfaction is seen as the outcome of this comparison. The sample respondents were administered with schedule based on stratified random technique for this study. Statistical techniques such as factor analysis, t-test and correlation analysis were used to accomplish the respective objectives of the study.

Keywords: Satisfaction, Reliability, Service Quality.

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Authors: Raed A. Amro

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Standard packaging and interconnection technologies of power devices have difficulties meeting the increasing thermal demands of new application fields of power electronics devices. Main restrictions are the decreasing reliability of bond-wires and solder layers with increasing junction temperature. In the last few years intensive efforts have been invested in developing new packaging and interconnection solutions which may open a path to future application of power devices. In this paper, the main failure mechanisms of power devices are described and principle of new packaging and interconnection concepts and their power cycling reliability are presented.

Keywords: Power electronics devices, Reliability, Power Cycling, Low-temperature joining technique (LTJT)

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Authors: Zakari Yaou, Lirong Cui

Abstract:

In a product development process, understanding the functional behavior of the system, the role of components in achieving functions and failure modes if components/subsystem fails its required function will help develop appropriate design validation and verification program for reliability assessment. The integration of these three issues will help design and reliability engineers in identifying weak spots in design and planning future actions and testing program. This case study demonstrate the advantage of unascertained theory described in the subjective cognition uncertainty, and then applies blind number (BN) theory in describing the uncertainty of the mechanical system failure process and the same time used the same theory in bringing out another mechanical reliability system model. The practical calculations shows the BN Model embodied the characters of simply, small account of calculation but betterforecasting capability, which had the value of macroscopic discussion to some extent.

Keywords: Mechanical structure Design, time-dependent stochastic process, unascertained information, blind number theory.

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Authors: Eisa A. Alsafran, Francis T. Edum-Fotwe, Wayne E. Lord

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The degree to which a public client actively participates in Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes, is seen as a determinant of the success of the arrangement, and in particular, efficiency in the delivery of the assets of any infrastructure development. The asset delivery is often an early barometer for judging the overall performance of the PPP. Currently, there are no defined descriptors for the degree of such participation. The lack of defined descriptors makes the association between the degree of participation and efficiency of asset delivery, difficult to establish. This is particularly so if an optimum effect is desired. In addition, such an association is important for the strategic decision to embark on any PPP initiative. This paper presents a conceptual model of different levels of participation that characterise PPP schemes. The modelling was achieved by a systematic review of reported sources that address essential aspects and structures of PPP schemes, published from 2001 to 2015. As a precursor to the modelling, the common areas of Public Client Participation (PCP) were investigated. Equity and risk emerged as two dominant factors in the common areas of PCP, and were therefore adopted to form the foundation of the modelling. The resultant conceptual model defines the different states of combined PCP. The defined states provide a more rational basis for establishing how the degree of PCP affects the efficiency of asset delivery in PPP schemes.

Keywords: Asset delivery, infrastructure development, public private partnership, public client participation.

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Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

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Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: Reliability approach, storage tanks, Monte Carlo simulation, seismic acceleration.

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Authors: Anujendra, Parag Kumar Guha Thakurta

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The data transmission between mobile hosts and base stations (BSs) in Mobile networks are often vulnerable to failure. So, efficient link connectivity, in terms of the services of both base stations and communication channels of the network, is required in wireless mobile networks to achieve highly reliable data transmission. In addition, it is observed that the number of blocked hosts is increased due to insufficient number of channels during heavy load in the network. Under such scenario, the channels are allocated accordingly to offer a reliable communication at any given time. Therefore, a reliability-based channel allocation model with acceptable system performance is proposed as a MOO problem in this paper. Two conflicting parameters known as Resource Reuse factor (RRF) and the number of blocked calls are optimized under reliability constraint in this problem. The solution to such MOO problem is obtained through NSGA-II (Non dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm). The effectiveness of the proposed model in this work is shown with a set of experimental results.

Keywords: Base station, channel, GA, Pareto-optimal, reliability.

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Authors: Vijayalakshmy Periaswamy S., Kevin McDaid

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Testing accounts for the major percentage of technical contribution in the software development process. Typically, it consumes more than 50 percent of the total cost of developing a piece of software. The selection of software tests is a very important activity within this process to ensure the software reliability requirements are met. Generally tests are run to achieve maximum coverage of the software code and very little attention is given to the achieved reliability of the software. Using an existing methodology, this paper describes how to use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to select unit tests based on their contribution to the reliability of the module under consideration. In particular the work examines how the approach can enhance test-first development by assessing the quality of test suites resulting from this development methodology and providing insight into additional tests that can significantly reduce the achieved reliability. In this way the method can produce an optimal selection of inputs and the order in which the tests are executed to maximize the software reliability. To illustrate this approach, a belief network is constructed for a modern software system incorporating the expert opinion, expressed through probabilities of the relative quality of the elements of the software, and the potential effectiveness of the software tests. The steps involved in constructing the Bayesian Network are explained as is a method to allow for the test suite resulting from test-driven development.

Keywords: Software testing, Test Driven Development, Bayesian Belief Networks.

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

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The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

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