Search results for: Ying Zhang
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 531

Search results for: Ying Zhang

321 Experimental Investigation on Excess Pore Water Pressure in Soft Soil-Foundations under Minor Shocks

Authors: Zhiying Zhang, Chongdu Cho, Qiang Pan, Xilin Lu

Abstract:

In this study, shaking table tests are performed to investigate the behavior of excess pore water pressure in different soft soil-foundations of soil-structure interaction (SSI) system. The variation of the behaviors under cycled minor shock is observed. Moreover, The generation and variation mechanism of excess pore water pressure under earthquake excitation in different soft soilfoundations are analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Excess pore water pressure, shaking table tests, soft soil foundation, SSI system.

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320 Online Estimation of Clutch Drag Torque in Wet Dual Clutch Transmission Based on Recursive Least Squares

Authors: Hongkui Li, Tongli Lu , Jianwu Zhang

Abstract:

This paper focuses on developing an estimation method of clutch drag torque in wet DCT. The modelling of clutch drag torque is investigated. As the main factor affecting the clutch drag torque, dynamic viscosity of oil is discussed. The paper proposes an estimation method of clutch drag torque based on recursive least squares by utilizing the dynamic equations of gear shifting synchronization process. The results demonstrate that the estimation method has good accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords: Clutch drag torque, wet DCT, dynamic viscosity, recursive least squares.

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319 Real-time Detection of Space Manipulator Self-collision

Authors: Zhang Xiaodong, Tang Zixin, Liu Xin

Abstract:

In order to avoid self-collision of space manipulators during operation process, a real-time detection method is proposed in this paper. The manipulator is fitted into a cylinder-enveloping surface, and then, a kind of detection algorithm of collision between cylinders is analyzed. The collision model of space manipulator self-links can be detected by using this algorithm in real-time detection during the operation process. To ensure security of the operation, a safety threshold is designed. The simulation and experiment results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for a 7-DOF space manipulator.

Keywords: Space manipulator, Collision detection, Self-collision, the real-time collision detection.

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318 Mixing Behaviors of Shear-Thinning Fluids in Serpentine-Channel Micromixers

Authors: Rei-Tang Tsai, Chih-Yang Wu, Chia-Yuan Chang, Ming-Ying Kuo

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the mixing behaviors of deionized (DI) water and carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) solutions in C-shaped serpentine micromixers over a wide range of flow conditions. The flow of CMC solutions exhibits shear-thinning behaviors. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effects of the mean flow speed, fluid properties and geometry parameters on flow and mixing in the micromixers with the serpentine channel of the same overall channel length. From the results, we can find the following trends. When convection dominates fluid mixing, the curvature-induced vortices enhance fluid mixing effectively. The mixing efficiency of a micromixer consisting of semicircular C-shaped repeating units with a smaller centerline radius is better than that of a micromixer consisting of major segment repeating units with a larger centerline radius. The viscosity of DI water is less than the overall average apparent viscosity of CMC solutions, and so the effect of curvature-induced vortices on fluid mixing in DI water is larger than that in CMC solutions for the cases with the same mean flow speed.

Keywords: Microfluidics, mixing, non-Newtonian fluids, curved channel, vortex.

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317 Anti-periodic Solutions for Cohen-Grossberg Shunting Inhibitory Neural Networks with Delays

Authors: Yongkun Li, Tianwei Zhang, Shufa Bai

Abstract:

By using the method of coincidence degree theory and constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, several sufficient conditions are established for the existence and global exponential stability of anti-periodic solutions for Cohen-Grossberg shunting inhibitory neural networks with delays. An example is given to illustrate our feasible results.

Keywords: Anti-periodic solution, coincidence degree, global exponential stability, Cohen-Grossberg shunting inhibitory cellular neural networks.

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316 The Comprehensive Study Based on Ultrasonic and X-ray Visual Technology for GIS Equipment Detection

Authors: Wei Zhang, Hong Yu, Xian-ping Zhao, Da-da Wang, Fei Xue

Abstract:

For lack of the visualization of the ultrasonic detection method of partial discharge (PD), the ultrasonic detection technology combined with the X-ray visual detection method (UXV) is proposed. The method can conduct qualitative analysis accurately and conduct reliable positioning diagnosis to the internal insulation defects of GIS, and while it could make up the blindness of the X-ray visual detection method and improve the detection rate. In this paper, an experimental model of GIS is used as the trial platform, a variety of insulation defects are set inside the GIS cavity. With the proposed method, the ultrasonic method is used to conduct the preliminary detection, and then the X-ray visual detection is used to locate and diagnose precisely. Therefore, the proposed UXV technology is feasible and practical.

Keywords: GIS, ultrasonic, visual detection, X-ray

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315 A Mapping Approach of Code Generation for Arinc653-Based Avionics Software

Authors: Lu Zou, Dianfu MA, Ying Wang, Xianqi Zhao

Abstract:

Avionic software architecture has transit from a federated avionics architecture to an integrated modular avionics (IMA) .ARINC 653 (Avionics Application Standard Software Interface) is a software specification for space and time partitioning in Safety-critical avionics Real-time operating systems. Methods to transform the abstract avionics application logic function to the executable model have been brought up, however with less consideration about the code generating input and output model specific for ARINC 653 platform and inner-task synchronous dynamic interaction order sequence. In this paper, we proposed an AADL-based model-driven design methodology to fulfill the purpose to automatically generating Cµ executable model on ARINC 653 platform from the ARINC653 architecture which defined as AADL653 in order to facilitate the development of the avionics software constructed on ARINC653 OS. This paper presents the mapping rules between the AADL653 elements and the elements in Cµ language, and define the code generating rules , designs an automatic C µ code generator .Then, we use a case to illustrate our approach. Finally, we give the related work and future research directions.

Keywords: IMA, ARINC653, AADL653, code generation.

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314 A Study on Cancer-Cell Invasion Based On the Diffuse Interface Model

Authors: Zhang Linan, Jihwan Song, Dongchoul Kim

Abstract:

In this study, a three-dimensional haptotaxis model to simulate the migration of a population of cancer cells has been proposed. The invasion of cancer cells is related with the hapto-attractant and the effect of the interface energies between the cells and the ECM. The diffuse interface model, which incorporates the haptotaxis mechanism and interface energies, is employed. The semi-implicit Fourier spectral scheme is adopted for efficient evaluation of the simulation. The simulation results thoroughly reveal the dynamics of cancer-cell migration.

Keywords: Haptotaxis, Cancer Cells, Cell Migration, Interface Energy, Diffuse Interface Model

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313 Annual Power Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression Machines: A Study on Guangdong Province of China 1985-2008

Authors: Zhiyong Li, Zhigang Chen, Chao Fu, Shipeng Zhang

Abstract:

Load forecasting has always been the essential part of an efficient power system operation and planning. A novel approach based on support vector machines is proposed in this paper for annual power load forecasting. Different kernel functions are selected to construct a combinatorial algorithm. The performance of the new model is evaluated with a real-world dataset, and compared with two neural networks and some traditional forecasting techniques. The results show that the proposed method exhibits superior performance.

Keywords: combinatorial algorithm, data mining, load forecasting, support vector machines

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312 A High Quality Speech Coder at 600 bps

Authors: Yong Zhang, Ruimin Hu

Abstract:

This paper presents a vocoder to obtain high quality synthetic speech at 600 bps. To reduce the bit rate, the algorithm is based on a sinusoidally excited linear prediction model which extracts few coding parameters, and three consecutive frames are grouped into a superframe and jointly vector quantization is used to obtain high coding efficiency. The inter-frame redundancy is exploited with distinct quantization schemes for different unvoiced/voiced frame combinations in the superframe. Experimental results show that the quality of the proposed coder is better than that of 2.4kbps LPC10e and achieves approximately the same as that of 2.4kbps MELP and with high robustness.

Keywords: Speech coding, Vector quantization, linear predicition, Mixed sinusoidal excitation

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311 Research on Laws and Regulations of Sustainable Construction in China

Authors: Wei Zhang, Jing Dong

Abstract:

This paper introduced the status quo of laws and regulations of sustainable construction in China and investigated the existing problems of current laws and regulations through person-interviews in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Shenzhen in China. The problems include incomplete legal system, lack of guidance of higher-level laws, backward in some laws and regulations, unclear legal liability and poor law enforcement. Aimed at these problems, this paper also put forward some improvement approaches, such as filling the legal gap, revising laws and regulations, establishing incentive system and keeping pace with level of development.

Keywords: Improvement, laws and regulations, status quo, sustainable construction

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310 An Address-Oriented Transmit Mechanism for GALS NoC

Authors: Yuanyuan Zhang, Guang Sun, Li Su, Depeng Jin, Lieguang Zeng

Abstract:

Since Network-on-Chip (NoC) uses network interfaces (NIs) to improve the design productivity, by now, there have been a few papers addressing the design and implementation of a NI module. However, none of them considered the difference of address encoding methods between NoC and the traditional bus-shared architecture. On the basis of this difference, in the paper, we introduce a transmit mechanism to solve such a problem for global asynchronous locally synchronous (GALS) NoC. Furthermore, we give the concrete implementation of the NI module in this transmit mechanism. Finally, we evaluate its performance and area overhead by a VHDL-based cycle-accurate RTL model and simulation results confirm the validity of this address-oriented transmit mechanism.

Keywords: Network-on-Chip, Network Interface, Open CoreProtocol, Address.

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309 Combining Molecular Statics with Heat Transfer Finite Difference Method for Analysis of Nanoscale Orthogonal Cutting of Single-Crystal Silicon Temperature Field

Authors: Zone-Ching Lin, Meng-Hua Lin, Ying-Chih Hsu

Abstract:

This paper uses quasi-steady molecular statics model and diamond tool to carry out simulation temperature rise of nanoscale orthogonal cutting single-crystal silicon. It further qualitatively analyzes temperature field of silicon workpiece without considering heat transfer and considering heat transfer. This paper supposes that the temperature rise of workpiece is mainly caused by two heat sources: plastic deformation heat and friction heat. Then, this paper develops a theoretical model about production of the plastic deformation heat and friction heat during nanoscale orthogonal cutting. After the increased temperature produced by these two heat sources are added up, the acquired total temperature rise at each atom of the workpiece is substituted in heat transfer finite difference equation to carry out heat transfer and calculates the temperature field in each step and makes related analysis.

Keywords: Quasi-steady molecular statics, Nanoscale orthogonal cutting, Finite difference, Temperature.

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308 A Intelligent Inference Model about Complex Systems- Stability: Inspiration from Nature

Authors: Naiqin Feng, Yuhui Qiu, Yingshan Zhang, Fang Wang

Abstract:

A logic model for analyzing complex systems- stability is very useful to many areas of sciences. In the real world, we are enlightened from some natural phenomena such as “biosphere", “food chain", “ecological balance" etc. By research and practice, and taking advantage of the orthogonality and symmetry defined by the theory of multilateral matrices, we put forward a logic analysis model of stability of complex systems with three relations, and prove it by means of mathematics. This logic model is usually successful in analyzing stability of a complex system. The structure of the logic model is not only clear and simple, but also can be easily used to research and solve many stability problems of complex systems. As an application, some examples are given.

Keywords: Complex system, logic model, relation, stability.

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307 Adaptive Radio Resource Allocation for Multiple Traffic OFDMA Broadband Wireless Access System

Authors: Lu Yanhui, Zhang Lizhi, Yin Changchuan, Yue Guangxin

Abstract:

In this paper, an adaptive radio resource allocation (RRA) algorithm applying to multiple traffic OFDMA system is proposed, which distributes sub-carrier and loading bits among users according to their different QoS requirements and traffic class. By classifying and prioritizing the users based on their traffic characteristic and ensuring resource for higher priority users, the scheme decreases tremendously the outage probability of the users requiring a real time transmission without impact on the spectrum efficiency of system, as well as the outage probability of data users is not increased compared with the RRA methods published.

Keywords: OFDMA, adaptive radio resource allocation, QoS.

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306 A Functional Framework for Large Scale Application Software Systems

Authors: Han-hua Lu, Shun-yi Zhang, Yong Zheng, Ya-shi Wang, Li-juan Min

Abstract:

From the perspective of system of systems (SoS) and emergent behaviors, this paper describes large scale application software systems, and proposes framework methods to further depict systems- functional and non-functional characteristics. Besides, this paper also specifically discusses some functional frameworks. In the end, the framework-s applications in system disintegrations, system architecture and stable intermediate forms are additionally dealt with in this in building, deployment and maintenance of large scale software applications.

Keywords: application software system, framework methods, system of systems, emergent behaviors

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305 Development of Configuration Software of Space Environment Simulator Control System Based on Linux

Authors: Zhan Haiyang, Zhang Lei, Ning Juan

Abstract:

This paper presents a configuration software solution in Linux, which is used for the control of space environment simulator. After introducing the structure and basic principle, it is said that the developing of QT software frame and the dynamic data exchanging between PLC and computer. The OPC driver in Linux is also developed. This driver realizes many-to-many communication between hardware devices and SCADA software. Moreover, an algorithm named “Scan PRI” is put forward. This algorithm is much more optimizable and efficient compared with "Scan in sequence" in Windows. This software has been used in practical project. It has a good control effect and can achieve the expected goal.

Keywords: Linux OS, configuration software, OPC server driver, MYSQL database.

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304 Cognitive SATP for Airborne Radar Based on Slow-Time Coding

Authors: Fanqiang Kong, Jindong Zhang, Daiyin Zhu

Abstract:

Space-time adaptive processing (STAP) techniques have been motivated as a key enabling technology for advanced airborne radar applications. In this paper, the notion of cognitive radar is extended to STAP technique, and cognitive STAP is discussed. The principle for improving signal-to-clutter ratio (SCNR) based on slow-time coding is given, and the corresponding optimization algorithm based on cyclic and power-like algorithms is presented. Numerical examples show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Space-time adaptive processing (STAP), signal-to-clutter ratio, slow-time coding.

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303 A New Kind Methodology for Controlling Complex Systems

Authors: Zundong Zhang, Limin Jia, Yuanyuan Chai

Abstract:

Control of complex systems is one of important files in complex systems, that not only relies on the essence of complex systems which is denoted by the core concept – emergence, but also embodies the elementary concept in control theory. Aiming at giving a clear and self-contained description of emergence, the paper introduces a formal way to completely describe the formation and dynamics of emergence in complex systems. Consequently, this paper indicates the Emergence-Oriented Control methodology that contains three kinds of basic control schemes: the direct control, the system re-structuring and the system calibration. As a universal ontology, the Emergence-Oriented Control provides a powerful tool for identifying and resolving control problems in specific systems.

Keywords: Complex System Control, Emergence, Emergence- Oriented Control Methodology.

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302 Fast Algorithm of Infrared Point Target Detection in Fluctuant Background

Authors: Yang Weiping, Zhang Zhilong, Li Jicheng, Chen Zengping, He Jun

Abstract:

The background estimation approach using a small window median filter is presented on the bases of analyzing IR point target, noise and clutter model. After simplifying the two-dimensional filter, a simple method of adopting one-dimensional median filter is illustrated to make estimations of background according to the characteristics of IR scanning system. The adaptive threshold is used to segment canceled image in the background. Experimental results show that the algorithm achieved good performance and satisfy the requirement of big size image-s real-time processing.

Keywords: Point target, background estimation, median filter, adaptive threshold, target detection.

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301 The Mechanical and Electrochemical Properties of DC-Electrodeposited Ni-Mn Alloy Coating with Low Internal Stress

Authors: Chun-Ying Lee, Kuan-Hui Cheng, Mei-Wen Wu

Abstract:

The nickel-manganese (Ni-Mn) alloy coating prepared from DC electrodeposition process in sulphamate bath was studied. The effects of process parameters, such as current density and electrolyte composition, on the cathodic current efficiency, microstructure, internal stress and mechanical properties were investigated. Because of its crucial effect on the application to the electroforming of microelectronic components, the development of low internal stress coating with high leveling power was emphasized. It was found that both the coating’s manganese content and the cathodic current efficiency increased with the raise in current density. In addition, the internal stress of the deposited coating showed compressive nature at low current densities while changed to tensile one at higher current densities. Moreover, the metallographic observation, X-ray diffraction measurement, and polarization curve measurement were conducted. It was found that the Ni-Mn coating consisted of nano-sized columnar grains and the maximum hardness of the coating was associated with (111) preferred orientation in the microstructure. The grain size was refined along with the increase in the manganese content of the coating, which accordingly, raised its hardness and resistance to annealing softening. In summary, the Ni-Mn coating prepared at lower current density of 1-2 A/dm2 had low internal stress, high leveling power, and better corrosion resistance.

Keywords: DC plating, internal stress, leveling power, Ni-Mn coating.

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300 Design of Multiplier-free State-Space Digital Filters

Authors: Tamal Bose, Zhurun Zhang, Miloje Radenkovic, Ojas Chauhan

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel approach is presented for designing multiplier-free state-space digital filters. The multiplier-free design is obtained by finding power-of-2 coefficients and also quantizing the state variables to power-of-2 numbers. Expressions for the noise variance are derived for the quantized state vector and the output of the filter. A “structuretransformation matrix" is incorporated in these expressions. It is shown that quantization effects can be minimized by properly designing the structure-transformation matrix. Simulation results are very promising and illustrate the design algorithm.

Keywords: Digital filters, minimum noise, multiplier-free, quantization, state-space.

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299 Edge Detection Algorithm Based on Wavelet De-nosing Applied tothe X-ray Image Enhancement of the Electric Equipment

Authors: Fei Xue, Hong Yu, Da-da Wang, Wei Zhang, Rong-min Zou, Xiao-lanCai

Abstract:

The X-ray technology has been used in non-destructive evaluation in the Power System, in which a visual non-destructive inspection method for the electrical equipment is provided. However, lots of noise is existed in the images that are got from the X-ray digital images equipment. Therefore, the auto defect detection which based on these images will be very difficult to proceed. A theory on X-ray image de-noising algorithm based on wavelet transform is proposed in this paper. Then the edge detection algorithm is used so that the defect can be pushed out. The result of experiment shows that the method which utilized by this paper is very useful for de-noising on the X-ray images.

Keywords: de-noising, edge detection, wavelet transform, X-ray

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298 Working Mode and Key Technology of Thermal Vacuum Test Software for Spacecraft Test

Authors: Zhang Lei, Zhan Haiyang, Gu Miao

Abstract:

A universal software platform is developed for improving the defects in the practical one. This software platform has distinct advantages in modularization, information management, and the interfaces. Several technologies such as computer technology, virtualization technology, network technology, etc. are combined together in this software platform, and four working modes are introduced in this article including single mode, distributed mode, cloud mode, and the centralized mode. The application area of the software platform is extended through the switch between these working modes. The software platform can arrange the thermal vacuum test process automatically. This function can improve the reliability of thermal vacuum test.

Keywords: Software platform, thermal vacuum test, control and measurement, work mode.

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297 A DEA Model for Performance Evaluation in The Presence of Time Lag Effect

Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

Abstract:

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a methodology that computes efficiency values for decision making units (DMU) in a given period by comparing the outputs with the inputs. In many cases, there are some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. For a long-term research project, it is hard to avoid the production lead time phenomenon. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. This paper suggests a model to calculate efficiency values for the performance evaluation problem with time lag. In the experimental part, the proposed methods are compared with the CCR and an existing time lag model using the data set of the 21st century frontier R&D program which is a long-term national R&D program of Korea.

Keywords: DEA, Efficiency, Time Lag

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296 Numerical Simulations of Cross-Flow around Four Square Cylinders in an In-Line Rectangular Configuration

Authors: Shams Ul Islam, Chao Ying Zhou, Farooq Ahmad

Abstract:

A two-dimensional numerical simulation of crossflow around four cylinders in an in-line rectangular configuration is studied by using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). Special attention is paid to the effect of the spacing between the cylinders. The Reynolds number ( Re ) is chosen to be e 100 R = and the spacing ratio L / D is set at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 9.0 and 10.0. Results show that, as in the case of four cylinders in an inline rectangular configuration , flow fields show four different features depending on the spacing (single square cylinder, stable shielding flow, wiggling shielding flow and a vortex shedding flow) are observed in this study. The effects of spacing ratio on physical quantities such as mean drag coefficient, Strouhal number and rootmean- square value of the drag and lift coefficients are also presented. There is more than one shedding frequency at small spacing ratios. The mean drag coefficients for downstream cylinders are less than that of the single cylinder for all spacing ratios. The present results using the LBM are compared with some existing experimental data and numerical studies. The comparison shows that the LBM can capture the characteristics of the bluff body flow reasonably well and is a good tool for bluff body flow studies.

Keywords: Four square cylinders, Lattice Boltzmann method, rectangular configuration, spacing ratios, vortex shedding.

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295 The Design and Implementation of Classifying Bird Sounds

Authors: Haiyi Zhang, Jianli Guo, Daqian Yang

Abstract:

This Classifying Bird Sounds (chip notes) project-s purpose is to reduce the unwanted noise from recorded bird sound chip notes, design a scheme to detect differences and similarities between recorded chip notes, and classify bird sound chip notes. The technologies of determining the similarities of sound waves have been used in communication, sound engineering and wireless sound applications for many years. Our research is focused on the similarity of chip notes, which are the sounds from different birds. The program we use is generated by Microsoft Cµ.

Keywords: Classify Bird Sounds, Noise Filter, High-pass, Lowpass, Band-pass, Band-stop Filter, FIR.

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294 Virulent-GO: Prediction of Virulent Proteins in Bacterial Pathogens Utilizing Gene Ontology Terms

Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.

Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.

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293 Low Power Consuming Electromagnetic Actuators for Pulsed Pilot Stages

Authors: M. Honarpardaz, Z. Zhang, J. Derkx, A. Trangärd, J. Larsson

Abstract:

Pilot stages are one of the most common positioners and regulators in industry. In this paper, we present two novel concepts for pilot stages with low power consumption to regulate a pneumatic device. Pilot 1, first concept, is designed based on a conventional frame core electro-magnetic actuator and a leaf spring to control the air flow and pilot 2 has an axisymmetric actuator and spring made of non-oriented electrical steel. Concepts are simulated in a system modeling tool to study their dynamic behavior. Both concepts are prototyped and tested. Experimental results are comprehensively analyzed and compared. The most promising concept that consumes less than 8 mW is highlighted and presented.

Keywords: Electro-magnetic actuator, multidisciplinary system, low power consumption, pilot stage.

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292 GMDH Modeling Based on Polynomial Spline Estimation and Its Applications

Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun

Abstract:

GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline  stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.

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