Search results for: Transition Probability

Authors: L. Agneni, F. Carta, C. Micheletta, V. Tersigni

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The development of a qualitative method to profile jobseekers is needed to improve the quality of the Public Employment Services (PES) in Italy. This is why the National Agency for Active Labour Market Policies (ANPAL) decided to introduce a Qualitative Profiling Service in the context of the activities carried out by local employment offices’ operators. The qualitative profiling service provides information and data regarding the jobseeker’s personal transition status, through a semi-structured questionnaire administered to PES clients during the guidance interview. The questionnaire responses allow PES staff to identify, for each client, proper activities and policy measures to support jobseekers in their reintegration into the labour market. Data and information gathered by the qualitative profiling tool are the following: frequency, modalities and motivations for clients to apply to local employment offices; clients’ expectations and skills; difficulties that they have faced during the previous working experiences; strategies, actions undertaken and activated channels for job search. These data are used to assess jobseekers’ personal and career characteristics and to measure their employability level (qualitative profiling index), in order to develop and deliver tailor-made action programmes for each client. This paper illustrates the use of the above-mentioned qualitative profiling service on the national territory and provides an overview of the main findings of the survey: concerning the difficulties that unemployed people face in finding a job and their perception of different aspects related to the transition in the labour market. The survey involved over 10.000 jobseekers registered with the PES. Most of them are beneficiaries of the “citizens' income”, a specific active labour policy and social inclusion measure. Furthermore, data analysis allows classifying jobseekers into a specific group of clients with similar features and behaviours, on the basis of socio-demographic variables, customers' expectations, needs and required skills for the profession for which they seek employment. Finally, the survey collects PES staff opinions and comments concerning clients’ difficulties in finding a new job and also their strengths. This is a starting point for PESs’ operators to define adequate strategies to facilitate jobseekers’ access or reintegration into the labour market.

Keywords: Labour market transition, Public Employment Services, qualitative profiling, vocational guidance.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

Abstract:

Real world Speaker Identification (SI) application differs from ideal or laboratory conditions causing perturbations that leads to a mismatch between the training and testing environment and degrade the performance drastically. Many strategies have been adopted to cope with acoustical degradation; wavelet based Bayesian marginal model is one of them. But Bayesian marginal models cannot model the inter-scale statistical dependencies of different wavelet scales. Simple nonlinear estimators for wavelet based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients in different scales are independent in nature. However wavelet coefficients have significant inter-scale dependency. This paper enhances this inter-scale dependency property by a Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function (CS-PDF) related to the family of Spherically Invariant Random Processes (SIRPs) in Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) domain and corresponding joint shrinkage estimator is derived by Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator. A framework is proposed based on these to denoise speech signal for automatic speaker identification problems. The robustness of the proposed framework is tested for Text Independent Speaker Identification application on 100 speakers of POLYCOST and 100 speakers of YOHO speech database in three different noise environments. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in identification accuracy compared to other estimators on popular Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based speaker model and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features.

Keywords: Speaker Identification, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian Bivariate Estimator, Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function, SIRP.

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Authors: Juan-Gabriel Cegarra-Navarro, Alexeis Garcia-Perez, Denise Bedford

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This paper provides guidelines for what constitutes a knowledge worker. Many graduates from non-managerial domains adopt, at some point in their professional careers, management roles at different levels, ranging from team leaders through to executive leadership. This is particularly relevant for professionals from an engineering background. Moving from a technical to an executive-level requires an understanding of those behaviour management techniques that can motivate and support individuals and their performance. Further, the transition to management also demands a shift of contextual enablers from tangible to intangible resources, which allows individuals to create new capacities, competencies, and capabilities. In this dynamic process, the knowledge worker becomes that key individual who can help members of the management board to transform information into relevant knowledge. However, despite its relevance in shaping the future of the organization in its transition to the knowledge economy, the role of a knowledge worker has not yet been studied to an appropriate level in the current literature. In this study, the authors review both the contextual enablers and behaviour outputs related to the role of the knowledge worker and relate these to their ability to deal with everyday management issues such as knowledge heterogeneity, varying motivations, information overload, or outdated information. This study highlights that the aggregate of capacities, competences and capabilities (CCCs) can be defined as knowledge structures, the study proposes several contextual enablers and behaviour outputs that knowledge workers can use to work cooperatively, acquire, distribute and knowledge. Therefore, this study contributes to a better comprehension of how CCCs can be managed at different levels through their contextual enablers and behaviour outputs.

Keywords: Knowledge workers, capacities, competences, capabilities, knowledge structures.

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Authors: H K Lakshminarayana, J S Bhat, H M Mahesh

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A new estimator for evolutionary spectrum (ES) based on short time Fourier transform (STFT) and modified group delay function (MGDF) by signal decomposition (SD) is proposed. The STFT due to its built-in averaging, suppresses the cross terms and the MGDF preserves the frequency resolution of the rectangular window with the reduction in the Gibbs ripple. The present work overcomes the magnitude distortion observed in multi-component non-stationary signals with STFT and MGDF estimation of ES using SD. The SD is achieved either through discrete cosine transform based harmonic wavelet transform (DCTHWT) or perfect reconstruction filter banks (PRFB). The MGDF also improves the signal to noise ratio by removing associated noise. The performance of the present method is illustrated for cross chirp and frequency shift keying (FSK) signals, which indicates that its performance is better than STFT-MGDF (STFT-GD) alone. Further its noise immunity is better than STFT. The SD based methods, however cannot bring out the frequency transition path from band to band clearly, as there will be gap in the contour plot at the transition. The PRFB based STFT-SD shows good performance than DCTHWT decomposition method for STFT-GD.

Keywords: Evolutionary Spectrum, Modified Group Delay, Discrete Cosine Transform, Harmonic Wavelet Transform, Perfect Reconstruction Filter Banks, Short Time Fourier Transform.

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Authors: Dinesh Inamadar, R. Venugopalan, K. Padmini

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An attempt has been made in the present communication to elucidate the efficacy of robust ANOVA methods to analyse horticultural field experimental data in the presence of outliers. Results obtained fortify the use of robust ANOVA methods as there was substantiate reduction in error mean square, and hence the probability of committing Type I error, as compared to the regular approach.

Keywords: Outliers, robust ANOVA, horticulture, Cook distance, Type I error.

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Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

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The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: Currency Board Arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, Great recession.

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Authors: F. Urem, K. Fertalj, I. Livaja

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Constant upgrading of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems is necessary, but can cause new defects. This paper attempts to model the likelihood of defects after completed upgrades with Weibull defect probability density function (PDF). A case study is presented analyzing data of recorded defects obtained for one ERP subsystem. The trends are observed for the value of the parameters relevant to the proposed statistical Weibull distribution for a given one year period. As a result, the ability to predict the appearance of defects after the next upgrade is described.

Keywords: ERP, upgrade, reliability, Weibull model

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Authors: Tapas Kumar Sinha, Joseph Mathew

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Based on the Lagrangian for the Gross –Pitaevskii equation as derived by H. Sakaguchi and B.A Malomed [5] we have derived a double well model for the nonlinear optical lattice. This model explains the various features of nonlinear optical lattices. Further, from this model we obtain and simulate the probability for tunneling from one well to another which agrees with experimental results [4].

Keywords: Double well model, nonlinear optical lattice, Solitons, tunneling.

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Authors: Dongmin Cai, Stephen S-T Yau

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Lacking an inherent “natural" dissimilarity measure between objects in categorical dataset presents special difficulties in clustering analysis. However, each categorical attributes from a given dataset provides natural probability and information in the sense of Shannon. In this paper, we proposed a novel method which heuristically converts categorical attributes to numerical values by exploiting such associated information. We conduct an experimental study with real-life categorical dataset. The experiment demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.

Keywords: Categorical, Clustering, Converting, Information

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Authors: Merab Khokhobaia

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Within the framework of this research, the regulatory documents, which are in force in relation to this industry, were analyzed. The main attention is turned to their modernization and necessity of their compliance with European standards. It is a current issue to direct the efforts of state policy on support of business by implementing infrastructural projects, as well as by development of human resources, which may be possible by supporting the relevant higher and vocational studying-educational programs.

Keywords: Regional Development, Tourism Industry, Tourism Policy, Transition.

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Authors: Valeriy Naumov, Olli Martikainen

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In this paper we propose new method for simultaneous generating multiple quantiles corresponding to given probability levels from data streams and massive data sets. This method provides a basis for development of single-pass low-storage quantile estimation algorithms, which differ in complexity, storage requirement and accuracy. We demonstrate that such algorithms may perform well even for heavy-tailed data.

Keywords: Quantile estimation, data stream, heavy-taileddistribution, tail index.

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Authors: M. Ghazikhani, M. R. Kalateh, Y. K. Toroghi, M. Dehnavi

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In this study, effects of premixed and equivalence ratios on CO and HC emissions of a dual fuel HCCI engine are investigated. Tests were conducted on a single-cylinder engine with compression ratio of 17.5. Premixed gasoline is provided by a carburetor connected to intake manifold and equipped with a screw to adjust premixed air-fuel ratio, and diesel fuel is injected directly into the cylinder through an injector at pressure of 250 bars. A heater placed at inlet manifold is used to control the intake charge temperature. Optimal intake charge temperature results in better HCCI combustion due to formation of a homogeneous mixture, therefore, all tests were carried out over the optimum intake temperature of 110-115 ºC. Timing of diesel fuel injection has a great effect on stratification of in-cylinder charge and plays an important role in HCCI combustion phasing. Experiments indicated 35 BTDC as the optimum injection timing. Varying the coolant temperature in a range of 40 to 70 ºC, better HCCI combustion was achieved at 50 ºC. Therefore, coolant temperature was maintained 50 ºC during all tests. Simultaneous investigation of effective parameters on HCCI combustion was conducted to determine optimum parameters resulting in fast transition to HCCI combustion. One of the advantages of the method studied in this study is feasibility of easy and fast transition of typical diesel engine to a dual fuel HCCI engine. Results show that increasing premixed ratio, while keeping EGR rate constant, increases unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) emissions due to quenching phenomena and trapping of premixed fuel in crevices, but CO emission decreases due to increase in CO to CO2 reactions.

Keywords: Dual fuel HCCI engine, premixed ratio, equivalenceratio, CO and UHC emissions.

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Authors: A. K. M. De Paula, R. Tenorio

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The 20th century has brought much development to the practice of Architecture worldwide, and technology has bridged inhabitation limits in many regions of the world with high levels of comfort and conveniences, most times at high costs to the environment. Throughout the globe, the tropical countries are being urbanized at an unprecedented rate and housing has become a major issue worldwide, in light of increased demand and lack of appropriate infra-structure and planning. Buildings and urban spaces designed in tropical cities have mainly adopted external concepts that in most cases do not fit the needs of the inhabitants living in such harsh climatic environment, and when they do, do so at high financial, environmental and cultural costs. Traditional architectural practices can provide valuable understanding on how self-reliance and autonomy of construction can be reinforced in rural-urban tropical environments. From traditional housing knowledge, it is possible to derive lessons for the development of new construction materials that are affordable, environmentally friendly, culturally acceptable and accesible to all.Specifically to the urban context, such solutions are of outmost importance, given the needs to a more democratic society, where access to housing is considered high in the agenda for development. Traditional or rural constructions are also ongoing through extensive changes eventhough they have mostly adopted climate-responsive building practices relying on local resources (with minimum embodied energy) and energy (for comfort and quality of life). It is important to note that many of these buildings can actually be called zero-energy, and hold potential answers to enable transition from high energy, high cost, low comfort urban habitations to zero/low energy habitations with high quality urban livelihood. Increasing access to modern urban lifestyels have also an effect on the aspirations from people in terms of performance, comfort and convenience in terms of their housing and the way it is produced and used. These aspirations are resulting in transitions from localresource dependent habitations- to non-local resource based highenergy urban style habitations. And such transitions are resulting in the habitations becoming increasingly unsuited to the local climatic conditions with increasing discomfort, ill-health, and increased CO2 emissions and local environmental disruption. This research studies one specific transition group in the context of 'water communities' in tropical-equatorial regions: Ribeirinhos housing typology (Amazonas, Brazil). The paper presents the results of a qualitative sustainability assessment of the housing typologies under transition, found at the Ribeirinhos communities.

Keywords: Vernacuilar and Tropical Architecture, SustainableHousing Design, Urban-rural Housing, Living Transitions

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Authors: Mbainaibeye Jérôme, Noureddine Ellouze

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Wavelet transforms is a very powerful tools for image compression. One of its advantage is the provision of both spatial and frequency localization of image energy. However, wavelet transform coefficients are defined by both a magnitude and sign. While algorithms exist for efficiently coding the magnitude of the transform coefficients, they are not efficient for the coding of their sign. It is generally assumed that there is no compression gain to be obtained from the coding of the sign. Only recently have some authors begun to investigate the sign of wavelet coefficients in image coding. Some authors have assumed that the sign information bit of wavelet coefficients may be encoded with the estimated probability of 0.5; the same assumption concerns the refinement information bit. In this paper, we propose a new method for Separate Sign Coding (SSC) of wavelet image coefficients. The sign and the magnitude of wavelet image coefficients are examined to obtain their online probabilities. We use the scalar quantization in which the information of the wavelet coefficient to belong to the lower or to the upper sub-interval in the uncertainly interval is also examined. We show that the sign information and the refinement information may be encoded by the probability of approximately 0.5 only after about five bit planes. Two maps are separately entropy encoded: the sign map and the magnitude map. The refinement information of the wavelet coefficient to belong to the lower or to the upper sub-interval in the uncertainly interval is also entropy encoded. An algorithm is developed and simulations are performed on three standard images in grey scale: Lena, Barbara and Cameraman. Five scales are performed using the biorthogonal wavelet transform 9/7 filter bank. The obtained results are compared to JPEG2000 standard in terms of peak signal to noise ration (PSNR) for the three images and in terms of subjective quality (visual quality). It is shown that the proposed method outperforms the JPEG2000. The proposed method is also compared to other codec in the literature. It is shown that the proposed method is very successful and shows its performance in term of PSNR.

Keywords: Image compression, wavelet transform, sign coding, magnitude coding.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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Authors: Amal Jmaii, Damien Rousseliere, Besma Belhadj

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We explore the relationship between internal migration and poverty in Tunisia. We present a methodology combining potential outcomes approach with multiple imputation to highlight the effect of internal migration on poverty states. We find that probability of being poor decreases when leaving the poorest regions (the west areas) to the richer regions (greater Tunis and the east regions).

Keywords: Internal migration, Bayesian approach, poverty dynamics, Tunisia.

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Authors: Lan Wu

Abstract:

China’s declared transformation towards a ‘new electricity system dominated by renewable energy’ requires a cleaner electricity consumption mix with high shares of renewable energy sourced-electricity (RES-E). Unfortunately, integration of RES-E into Chinese electricity markets remains a problem pending more robust legal support, evidenced by the curtailment of wind and solar power due to integration constraints. The upcoming Energy Law of the PRC (Energy Law) is expected to provide such long-awaiting support and coordinate the existing diverse sector-specific laws to deal with the weak implementation that dampening the delivery of their desired regulatory effects. However, in the shadow of the COVID-19 crisis, it remains uncertain how this new Energy Law brings synergies to RES-E integration, mindful of the significant impacts of the pandemic. Through the theoretical lens of the interplay between China’s electricity market reform and legislative development, this paper investigates whether there is a paradigm shift in Energy Law regarding renewable energy integration compared with the existing sector-specific energy laws. It examines the 2020 Draft for Comments on the Energy Law and analyses its relationship with sector-specific energy laws focusing on RES-E integration. The comparison is drawn upon five critical aspects of the RES-E integration issue, including the status of renewables, marketisation, incentive schemes, consumption mechanisms, access to power grids and dispatching. The analysis shows that it is reasonable to expect a more open and well-organised electricity market, enabling the absorption of high shares of RES-E. The present paper concludes that a period of prosperous development of RES-E in the post-COVID-19 era can be anticipated with the legal support by the upcoming Energy Law. It contributes to understanding the signals China is sending regarding the transition towards a cleaner energy future.

Keywords: energy law, energy transition, electricity market reform, renewable energy integration

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Authors: O. Sotolongo-Grau, D. Rodriguez-Perez, J. A. Santos-Miranda, M. M. Desco, O. Sotolongo-Costa, J. C. Antoranz

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The use of the oncologic index ISTER allows for a more effective planning of the radiotherapic facilities in the hospitals. Any change in the radiotherapy treatment, due to unexpected stops, may be adapted by recalculating the doses to the new treatment duration while keeping the optimal prognosis. The results obtained in a simulation model on millions of patients allow the definition of optimal success probability algorithms.

Keywords: Mathematical model, radiation oncology, dynamical systems applications.

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Authors: Hai-Ying Liu, Yi-Hao Chen, Shu-Yin Pang, Feng-Hua Wang, Xiao-Fang Peng, Li-Yuan Yang, Zheng-Rong Chen, Yi Chen, Bing Zhu

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Objective: Biliary atresia (BA) is characterized by progressive liver fibrosis. Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been implicated as a key mechanism in the pathogenesis of organ fibrosis. MiR-200a has been shown to repress EMT. We aim to explore the role of miR-200a in the fibrogenesis of BA. Methods: We obtained the plasma samples and liver samples from patients with BA or controls to examine the role of miR-200a. Histological liver fibrosis was assessed using the Ishak fibrosis scores. Reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was performed to detect the expression of miR-200a in plasma. We also evaluated the expression of miR-200a in liver tissues using tyramide signal amplification fluorescence in situ hybridization (TSA-FISH). The expression of EMT related proteins zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1 (ZEB1), E-cadherin and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) in the liver sections were detected by immunohistochemical staining. Results: We found that the expression of miR-200a was both elevated in the plasma and liver tissues from BA patients compared with the controls. The hepatic expression of ZEB1 and α-SMA were markedly increased in the liver sections from BA patients compared to the controls, whereas E-cadherin was downregulated in the BA group. Simultaneously, we noted that the hepatic expression of miR-200a, E-cadherin and α-SMA were upregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in the BA group, while ZEB1 was downregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in BA patients. Conclusion: These findings suggest EMT has a critical effect on the fibrotic process of BA, and the interaction between miR-200a and ZEB1 may regulate EMT and eventually influence liver fibrogenesis of BA.

Keywords: Biliary atresia, liver fibrosis, MicroRNA, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, zinc finger e-box-binding homeobox 1.

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Authors: Dimitriya A. Mihaylova, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis, Georgi L. Iliev

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One possible approach for maintaining the security of communication systems relies on Physical Layer Security mechanisms. However, in wireless time division duplex systems, where uplink and downlink channels are reciprocal, the channel estimate procedure is exposed to attacks known as pilot contamination, with the aim of having an enhanced data signal sent to the malicious user. The Shifted 2-N-PSK method involves two random legitimate pilots in the training phase, each of which belongs to a constellation, shifted from the original N-PSK symbols by certain degrees. In this paper, legitimate pilots’ offset values and their influence on the detection capabilities of the Shifted 2-N-PSK method are investigated. As the implementation of the technique depends on the relation between the shift angles rather than their specific values, the optimal interconnection between the two legitimate constellations is investigated. The results show that no regularity exists in the relation between the pilot contamination attacks (PCA) detection probability and the choice of offset values. Therefore, an adversary who aims to obtain the exact offset values can only employ a brute-force attack but the large number of possible combinations for the shifted constellations makes such a type of attack difficult to successfully mount. For this reason, the number of optimal shift value pairs is also studied for both 100% and 98% probabilities of detecting pilot contamination attacks. Although the Shifted 2-N-PSK method has been broadly studied in different signal-to-noise ratio scenarios, in multi-cell systems the interference from the signals in other cells should be also taken into account. Therefore, the inter-cell interference impact on the performance of the method is investigated by means of a large number of simulations. The results show that the detection probability of the Shifted 2-N-PSK decreases inversely to the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio.

Keywords: Channel estimation, inter-cell interference, pilot contamination attacks, wireless communications.

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Authors: Sara El Manar El Bouanani, Ismail Kassou

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Our objective in this paper is to propose an approach capable of clustering web messages. The clustering is carried out by assigning, with a certain probability, texts written by the same web user to the same cluster based on Stylometric features and using fuzzy clustering algorithms. Focus in the present work is on comparing the most popular algorithms in fuzzy clustering theory namely, Fuzzy C-means, Possibilistic C-means and Fuzzy Possibilistic C-Means.

Keywords: Authorship detection, fuzzy clustering, profiling, stylometric features.

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Authors: Afaq Ahmad

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Using state space technique and GF(2) theory, a simulation model for external exclusive NOR type LFSR structures is developed. Through this tool a systematic procedure is devised for computing pseudo-random binary sequences from such structures.

Keywords: LFSR, external exclusive NOR type, recursivebinary sequence, initial state - next state, state transition matrix.

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Authors: Pasquale Verde, Giuseppe Lamanna

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A two-parameter fatigue model explicitly accounting for the cyclic as well as the mean stress was used to fit static and fatigue data available in literature concerning carbon fiber reinforced composite laminates subjected tension-tension fatigue. The model confirms the strength–life equal rank assumption and predicts reasonably the probability of failure under cyclic loading. The model parameters were found by best fitting procedures and required a minimum of experimental tests.

Keywords: Fatigue life, strength, composites, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Mario Mastriani, Alberto E. Giraldez

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In this paper, a new probability density function (pdf) is proposed to model the statistics of wavelet coefficients, and a simple Kalman-s filter is derived from the new pdf using Bayesian estimation theory. Specifically, we decompose the speckled image into wavelet subbands, we apply the Kalman-s filter to the high subbands, and reconstruct a despeckled image from the modified detail coefficients. Experimental results demonstrate that our method compares favorably to several other despeckling methods on test synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images.

Keywords: Kalman's filter, shrinkage, speckle, wavelets.

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Authors: Sadaf Moeez, Madiha Khalid, Zoya Khalid, Sania Shaheen, Sumbul Khalid

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Background: Inter-individual variation in response to metformin, which has been considered as a first line therapy for T2DM treatment is considerable. In the current study, it was aimed to investigate the impact of two genetic variants Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) in gene SLC47A1 on the clinical efficacy of metformin in T2DM Pakistani patients. Methods: The study included 800 T2DM patients (400 metformin responders and 400 metformin non-responders) along with 400 ethnically matched healthy individuals. The genotypes were determined by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. In-silico analysis was done to confirm the effect of the two SNPs on the structure of genes. Association was statistically determined using SPSS software. Results: Minor allele frequency for rs77474263 and rs77630697 was 0.13 and 0.12. For SLC47A1 rs77474263 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘T’ (CT) of rs77474263 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (29.2% vs. 35.5 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (7.2% vs. 4.0 %) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘T’ allele (TT). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘C’ (CC) had 2.11 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. For SLC47A1 rs77630697 the homozygotes of one mutant allele ‘A’ (GA) of rs77630697 variant were fewer in metformin responders than metformin non-responders (33.5% vs. 43.0 %). Likewise, the efficacy was further reduced (8.5% vs. 4.5%) in homozygotes of two copies of ‘A’ allele (AA). Remarkably, T2DM cases with two copies of allele ‘G’ (GG) had 2.41 times more probability to respond towards metformin monotherapy. In-silico analysis revealed that these two variants affect the structure and stability of their corresponding proteins. Conclusion: The present data suggest that SLC47A1 Leu125Phe (rs77474263) and Gly64Asp (rs77630697) polymorphisms were associated with the therapeutic response of metformin in T2DM patients of Pakistan.

Keywords: Diabetes, T2DM, SLC47A1, Pakistan, polymorphism.

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Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi

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This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.

Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.

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Authors: R. Henry, J-B. Paulin, St. Fauchille, Ph. Delord, K. Benkirane, A. Brunel

Abstract:

In this paper the CVA computation of interest rate swap is presented based on its rating. Rating and probability default given by Moody’s Investors Service are used to calculate our CVA for a specific swap with different maturities. With this computation the influence of rating variation can be shown on CVA. Application is made to the analysis of Greek CDS variation during the period of Greek crisis between 2008 and 2011. The main point is the determination of correlation between the fluctuation of Greek CDS cumulative value and the variation of swap CVA due to change of rating.

Keywords: CDS, Computation, CVA, Greek Crisis, Interest Rate Swap, Maturity, Rating, Swap.

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Authors: M. Kargar, R. Mirmiran, F. Fartash, T. Saderi

Abstract:

In this paper a new method is suggested for risk management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best planning for special objectives be done.

Keywords: Analysis, Data-mining, Pattern, Risk Management.

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Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

Abstract:

In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: Characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation.

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Authors: Alexander B. Bichkov, Valery V. Smirnov

Abstract:

Total cross section of helium atom photo-ionization by weak short pulse is calculated using the variant of trajectory method, developed in our earlier work. The method enables simple estimation of total ionization probability (or cross section) without integration of differential one.

Keywords: Evaluation of Photo-Ionization, Helium, Trajectory Method

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