Search results for: Relative risk.

Authors: Hossein Amoozad Khalili, Anahita Maleki

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Normally business changes are made in order to change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow, productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well as in general business and organizational management. There are several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses.

Keywords: Risk Management, Project Management, Scheduling, Planning

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Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

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The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available.

As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level.

The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: Biogas production, risks, risk assessment.

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

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This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: Group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial.

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Authors: M. Balestrieri, C. Pusceddu

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Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. Finally, the study reflects on how regional and urban planners deal with environmental risk and which aspects should be monitored in order to adopt responsible and useful interventions.

Keywords: Assessment, landscape, risk, planning.

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Authors: Chvalkovska, J., Jansky, P., Mejstrik, M.

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The objective of this article is to discuss the potential of economic analysis as a tool for identification and evaluation of corruption in legislative acts. We propose that corruption be perceived as a risk variable within the legislative process. Therefore we find it appropriate to employ risk analysis methods, used in various fields of economics, for the evaluation of corruption in legislation. Furthermore we propose the incorporation of these methods into the so called corruption impact assessment (CIA), the general framework for detection of corruption in legislative acts. The applications of the risk analysis methods are demonstrated on examples of implementation of proposed CIA in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: corruption; corruption impact assessment (CIA); legislative; legislative process; risk analysis; Czech Republic

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Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

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This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds.

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Authors: Z. Pavlík, J. Žumár, M. Pavlíková, J. Kočí, R. Černý

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Water vapour transport properties of gypsum block are studied in dependence on relative humidity using inverse analysis based on genetic algorithm. The computational inverse analysis is performed for the relative humidity profiles measured along the longitudinal axis of a rod sample. Within the performed transient experiment, the studied sample is exposed to two environments with different relative humidity, whereas the temperature is kept constant. For the basic gypsum characterisation and for the assessment of input material parameters necessary for computational application of genetic algorithm, the basic material properties of gypsum are measured as well as its thermal and water vapour storage parameters. On the basis of application of genetic algorithm, the relative humidity dependent water vapour diffusion coefficient and water vapour diffusion resistance factor are calculated.

Keywords: Water vapour transport, gypsum block, transient experiment, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: S. Youthao, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study investigated climatic factors associated with influenza cases in Southern Thailand. The main aim for use regression analysis to investigate possible causual relationship of climatic factors and variability between the border of the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. Southern Thailand had the highest Influenza incidences among four regions (i.e. north, northeast, central and southern Thailand). In this study, there were 14 climatic factors: mean relative humidity, maximum relative humidity, minimum relative humidity, rainfall, rainy days, daily maximum rainfall, pressure, maximum wind speed, mean wind speed, sunshine duration, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and temperature difference (i.e. maximum – minimum temperature). Multiple stepwise regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The results indicated that the mean wind speed and the minimum relative humidity were positively associated with the number of influenza cases on the Andaman Sea side. The maximum wind speed was positively associated with the number of influenza cases on the Gulf of Thailand side.

Keywords: Influenza, Climatic Factor, Relative Humidity, Rainfall, Pressure, Wind Speed, sunshine duration, Temperature, Andaman Sea, Gulf of Thailand, Southern Thailand.

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Authors: Dariusz Dymek, Leszek Kotulski

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Modeling of the distributed systems allows us to represent the whole its functionality. The working system instance rarely fulfils the whole functionality represented by model; usually some parts of this functionality should be accessible periodically. The reporting system based on the Data Warehouse concept seams to be an intuitive example of the system that some of its functionality is required only from time to time. Analyzing an enterprise risk associated with the periodical change of the system functionality, we should consider not only the inaccessibility of the components (object) but also their functions (methods), and the impact of such a situation on the system functionality from the business point of view. In the paper we suggest that the risk attributes should be estimated from risk attributes specified at the requirements level (Use Case in the UML model) on the base of the information about the structure of the model (presented at other levels of the UML model). We argue that it is desirable to consider the influence of periodical changes in requirements on the enterprise risk estimation. Finally, the proposition of such a solution basing on the UML system model is presented.

Keywords: Risk assessing, software maintenance, UML, graph grammars.

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptanceand Multi-objective optimization.

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain

Abstract:

Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.

Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.

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Authors: Sreedevi P. Chakyar, Jolly Andrews, V. P. Joseph

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A compact method for measuring the relative permittivity of a dielectric material at different temperatures using a single circular Split Ring Resonator (SRR) metamaterial unit working as a test probe is presented in this paper. The dielectric constant of a material is dependent upon its temperature and the LC resonance of the SRR depends on its dielectric environment. Hence, the temperature of the dielectric material in contact with the resonator influences its resonant frequency. A single SRR placed between transmitting and receiving probes connected to a Vector Network Analyser (VNA) is used as a test probe. The dependence of temperature between 30 ^oC and 60 ^oC on resonant frequency of SRR is analysed. Relative permittivities ‘ε’ of test samples for different temperatures are extracted from a calibration graph drawn between the relative permittivity of samples of known dielectric constant and their corresponding resonant frequencies. This method is found to be an easy and efficient technique for analysing the temperature dependent permittivity of different materials.

Keywords: Metamaterials, negative permeability, permittivity measurement techniques, split ring resonators, temperature dependent dielectric constant.

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Authors: R. A. Petre, S. E. Nichifor, A. Craifaleanu, I. Stroe

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The relative motion of a robotic arm formed by homogeneous bars of different lengths and masses, hinged to each other is investigated. The first bar of the mechanism is articulated on a platform, considered initially fixed on the surface of the Earth, while for the second case the platform is considered to be in rotation with respect to the Earth. For both analyzed cases the motion equations are determined using the Lagrangian formalism, applied in its traditional form, valid with respect to an inertial reference system, conventionally considered as fixed. However, in the second case, a generalized form of the formalism valid with respect to a non-inertial reference frame will also be applied. The numerical calculations were performed using a MATLAB program.

Keywords: Lagrange equations, relative motion, inertial or non-inertial reference frame.

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Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

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As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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Authors: Francesco Venuti, Simona Alfiero

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The aim of this paper is to develop an empirical research on the nature and consequences of corporate governance on Eurozone Insurance Industry risk taking attitude. More particularly, we analyzed the effect of public ownership on risk taking with respect to privately held Insurance Companies. We also analyzed the effects on risk taking attitude of different degrees of ownership concentration, directors compensation, and the dimension/diversity of the Board of Directors. Our results provide quite strong evidence that, coherently with the Agency Theory, publicly traded insurance companies with more concentrated ownership are less risky than the corresponding privately held.

Keywords: Agency theory, corporate governance, insurance companies, risk taking.

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Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang

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In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.

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Authors: A. Taqaddas

Abstract:

The human body has a complex system of innate and adaptive mechanisms for combating infection. This article discusses the role and relative effectiveness of these mechanisms in relation to small pox and AIDS.

Keywords: AIDS, Immune System, Small Pox, Viral Infections.

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Authors: Attapong T., Hong-Ming Ku, Nakarin M., Narin L., Alisa L, Jirut W.

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The quantum mechanics simulation was applied for calculating the interaction force between 2 molecules based on atomic level. For the simple extractive distillation system, it is ternary components consisting of 2 closed boiling point components (A,lower boiling point and B, higher boiling point) and solvent (S). The quantum mechanics simulation was used to calculate the intermolecular force (interaction force) between the closed boiling point components and solvents consisting of intermolecular between A-S and B-S. The requirement of the promising solvent for extractive distillation is that solvent (S) has to form stronger intermolecular force with only one component than the other component (A or B). In this study, the systems of aromatic-aromatic, aromatic-cycloparaffin, and paraffindiolefin systems were selected as the demonstration for solvent selection. This study defined new term using for screening the solvents called relative interaction force which is calculated from the quantum mechanics simulation. The results showed that relative interaction force gave the good agreement with the literature data (relative volatilities from the experiment). The reasons are discussed. Finally, this study suggests that quantum mechanics results can improve the relative volatility estimation for screening the solvents leading to reduce time and money consuming

Keywords: Extractive distillation, Interaction force, Quamtum mechanic, Relative volatility, Solvent extraction.

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Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas

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In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).

Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: Risk, BIM, Shannon’s entropy, Fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects.

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptance and Multi-objective optimization.

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Authors: Amirali Shirazibeheshti, Tarik Radwan, Alireza Ettefaghian, Farbod Khanizadeh, George Wilson, Cristina Luca

Abstract:

Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. This work evaluates the association between the average risk score and measures of socioeconomic status (index of multiple deprivation) and health (index of health and disability). The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, suggesting that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medication. The risk may be monitored and controlled in a healthcare management system that is well-equipped with tools implementing appropriate techniques of artificial intelligence.

Keywords: Anticholinergic medication, socioeconomic status, deprivation, clustering, risk analysis.

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Authors: Idris A. Elfeituri

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of ambient conditions on the performance of a 285 MW gas turbine unit using the exergy concept. Based on the available exergy balance models developed, a computer program has been constructed to investigate the performance of the power plant under varying ambient temperature and relative humidity conditions. The variations of ambient temperature range from zero to 50 ºC and the relative humidity ranges from zero to 100%, while the unit load kept constant at 100% of the design load. The exergy destruction ratio and exergy efficiency are determined for each component and for the entire plant. The results show a moderate increase in the total exergy destruction ratio of the plant from 62.05% to 65.20%, while the overall exergy efficiency decrease from 38.2% to 34.8% as the ambient temperature increases from zero to 50 ºC at all relative humidity values. Furthermore, an increase of 1 ºC in ambient temperature leads to 0.063% increase in the total exergy destruction ratio and 0.07% decrease in the overall exergy efficiency. The relative humidity has a remarkable influence at higher ambient temperature values on the exergy destruction ratio of combustion chamber and on exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas but almost no effect on the total exergy destruction ratio and overall exergy efficiency. At 50 ºC ambient temperature, the exergy destruction ratio of the combustion chamber increases from 30% to 52% while the exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas decreases from 28% to 8% as the relative humidity increases from zero to 100%. In addition, exergy analysis reveals that the combustion chamber and exhaust gas are the main source of irreversibility in the gas turbine unit. It is also identified that the exergy efficiency and exergy destruction ratio are considerably dependent on the variations in the ambient air temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the incorporation of the existing gas turbine plant with inlet air cooling and humidifier technologies should be considered seriously.

Keywords: Destruction, exergy, gas turbine, irreversibility, performance.

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Authors: M. Hakak Khadem, M. Shams, S. Hossainpour

Abstract:

A two dimensional numerical simulation has been performed for incompressible and compressible fluid flow through microchannels in slip flow regime. The Navier-Stokes equations have been solved in conjunction with Maxwell slip conditions for modeling flow field associated with slip flow regime. The wall roughness is simulated with triangular microelements distributed on wall surfaces to study the effects of roughness on fluid flow. Various Mach and Knudsen numbers are used to investigate the effects of rarefaction as well as compressibility. It is found that rarefaction has more significant effect on flow field in microchannels with higher relative roughness. It is also found that compressibility has more significant effects on Poiseuille number when relative roughness increases. In addition, similar to incompressible models the increase in average fRe is more significant at low Knudsen number flows but the increase of Poiseuille number duo to relative roughness is sharper for compressible models. The numerical results have also validated with some available theoretical and experimental relations and good agreements have been seen.

Keywords: Relative roughness, slip flow, Poiseuille number.

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining.

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Authors: Hromada Martin

Abstract:

Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Protection, Resilience, Risk Analysis.

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Authors: Monica Dudian , Raluca Andreea Popa

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This article analyses the relationship between sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of 355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system, involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries during the reviewed period.

Keywords: credit rating agencies, economic growth, gross domestic product, sovereign credit risk rating.

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Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga

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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.

Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.

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