Search results for: Kenneth Clark

Authors: Elizabeth Downs, Judith Repman, Kenneth Clark

Abstract:

This paper describes the evolution of strategies to evaluate ePortfolios in an online Master-s of Education (M.Ed.) degree in Instructional Technology. The ePortfolios are required as a culminating activity for students in the program. By using Web 2.0 tools to develop the ePortfolios, students are able to showcase their technical skills, integrate national standards, demonstrate their professional understandings, and reflect on their individual learning. Faculty have created assessment strategies to evaluate student achievement of these skills. To further develop ePortfolios as a tool promoting authentic learning, faculty are moving toward integrating transparency as part of the evaluation process.

Keywords: e-learning evaluation, ePortfolios, transparency, Web 2.0

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Authors: Marina Gorunescu, Florin Gorunescu, Kenneth Revett

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Hepatocellular carcinoma, also called hepatoma, most commonly appears in a patient with chronic viral hepatitis. In patients with a higher suspicion of HCC, such as small or subtle rising of serum enzymes levels, the best method of diagnosis involves a CT scan of the abdomen, but only at high cost. The aim of this study was to increase the ability of the physician to early detect HCC, using a probabilistic neural network-based approach, in order to save time and hospital resources.

Keywords: Early HCC diagnosis, probabilistic neural network.

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Authors: James D. Clark, Bernard H. Stark

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The paper presents a modelling methodology for small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.

Keywords: Energy Analysis, Forecasting, Distributed powergeneration.

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Authors: Edward Guillen, Daniel Padilla, Adriana Hernandez, Kenneth Barner

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Biometrics methods include recognition techniques such as fingerprint, iris, hand geometry, voice, face, ears and gait. The gait recognition approach has some advantages, for example it does not need the prior concern of the observed subject and it can record many biometric features in order to make deeper analysis, but most of the research proposals use high computational cost. This paper shows a gait recognition system with feature subtraction on a bundle rectangle drawn over the observed person. Statistical results within a database of 500 videos are shown.

Keywords: Autentication, Biometrics, Gait Recognition, Human Identification, Security.

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Authors: Clark Van Dam, Gagan Mirchandani

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The Continuously Adaptive Mean-Shift (CamShift) algorithm, incorporating scene depth information is combined with the l1-minimization sparse representation based method to form a hybrid kernel and state space-based tracking algorithm. We take advantage of the increased efficiency of the former with the robustness to occlusion property of the latter. A simple interchange scheme transfers control between algorithms based upon drift and occlusion likelihood. It is quantified by the projection of target candidates onto a depth map of the 2D scene obtained with a low cost stereo vision webcam. Results are improved tracking in terms of drift over each algorithm individually, in a challenging practical outdoor multiple occlusion test case.

Keywords: CamShift, l1-minimization, particle filter, stereo vision, video tracking.

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Authors: Husam El-Asfour, Fateh Adhnouss, Kenneth McIsaac, AbdulMutalib Wahaishi, Raafat Aburukba, Idris El-Feghia

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Although intelligence is commonly referred to as the observable behavior in various fields and domains, it must also be shown how it develops by exhibiting multiple forms and without observing the inherent behavior. There have been several official and informal definitions of intelligence in various areas; however, no scientific agreement on a definition has been agreed upon. There must be a single definition, structure, and precise modeling for articulating how intelligence is perceived by people and machines in order to comprehend intelligence. Another key challenge is defining the different environment types based on the integral elements (agents) and their possible interactions. On the basis of conceptualization, this paper proposes a formal model for defining and developing intelligence. Forms of intelligence are derived from an ontological view, and thus intelligence is defined, described, and modeled based on the various types of environments.

Keywords: Intelligence, forms, transformation, conceptualization, ontological view.

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Authors: Kenneth I.Eshiet, Yong Sheng

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The sand production problem has led researchers into making various attempts to understand the phenomenon. The generally accepted concept is that the occurrence of sanding is due to the in-situ stress conditions and the induced changes in stress that results in the failure of the reservoir sandstone during hydrocarbon production from wellbores. By using a hypothetical cased (perforated) well, an approach to the problem is presented here by using Finite Element numerical modelling techniques. In addition to the examination of the erosion problem, the influence of certain key parameters is studied in order to ascertain their effect on the failure and subsequent erosion process. The major variables investigated include: drawdown, perforation depth, and the erosion criterion. Also included is the determination of the optimal mud pressure for given operational and reservoir conditions. The improved understanding between parameters enables the choice of optimal values to minimize sanding during oil production.

Keywords: Equivalent Plastic Strain, Erosion, Hydrocarbon Production.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

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Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution.

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Authors: Nina Robson, Kenneth John Faller II, Vishalkumar Ahir, Arthur Ricardo Deps Miguel Ferreira, John Buchanan, Amarnath Banerjee

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This paper describes the development of a virtual-reality system ARWED, which will be used in physical rehabilitation of patients with reduced upper extremity mobility to increase limb Active Range of Motion (AROM). The ARWED system performs a symmetric reflection and real-time mapping of the patient’s healthy limb on to their most affected limb, tapping into the mirror neuron system and facilitating the initial learning phase. Using the ARWED, future experiments will test the extension of the action-observation priming effect linked to the mirror-neuron system on healthy subjects and then stroke patients.

Keywords: Physical rehabilitation, mirror neuron, virtual reality, stroke therapy.

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: Transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation.

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

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The objective of meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence base for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research significantly changed over time and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable only to fixed effect model (FEM) of meta-analysis. For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, τ 2 and its estimation create complications. In this paper we study the use of a truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring in REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of applications.

Keywords: Meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential testing, temporal changes in effect sizes.

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Authors: Nina Robson, Kenneth John Faller II, Vishalkumar Ahir, Mustafa Mhawesh, Reza Langari

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This paper describes the development of a model of an impaired human arm performing a reaching motion, which will be used to predict hand path trajectories for people with reduced arm joint mobility. Assuming that the arm was in contact with a surface during the entire movement, the contact conditions at the initial and final task locations were determined and used to generate the entire trajectory. The model was validated by comparing it to experimental data, which simulated an arm joint impairment by physically constraining the joint motion with a brace. Future research will include using the model in the development of physical training protocols that avoid early recruitment of “healthy” Degrees-Of-Freedom (DOF) for reaching motions, thus facilitating an Active Range-Of-Motion Recovery (AROM) for a particular impaired joint.

Keywords: Higher order kinematic specifications, human motor coordination, impaired movement, kinematic synthesis.

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Authors: Raziah Bi Mohamed Sadique, Jamal Roudaki, Murray B. Clark, Norhayati Alias

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Economic crime (i.e. corporate fraud) has a significant impact on business. This study analyzes the fraud cases reported by the Malaysian Securities Commission. Frauds involving market manipulation and/or illegal share trading are the most common types of fraud reported over the 6 years analyzed. The highest number of frauds reported involved investment and fund holding companies. Alarmingly the results indicate quite a high number of frauds cases are committed by management. The higher number of Chinese perpetrators may be due to fact that they are the dominant group in Malaysian business. The result also shows that more than half of companies involved with fraud are privately held companies in the investment/fund/finance sector. The results of this study highlight general characteristic of perpetrators (person and company) that commit fraud which could help the regulators in their monitoring and enforcement activities. To investors, this would help in analyzing their business investment or portfolio risk.

Keywords: Corporate fraud, economic crime, fraudcharacteristic, perpetrators

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Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

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A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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Authors: Fateh Adhnouss, Husam El-Asfour, Kenneth McIsaac, Abdul Mutalib Wahaishi, Idris El-Feghia

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Conceptualization is an essential component of semantic ontology-based approaches. There have been several approaches that rely on extensional structure and extensional reduction structure in order to construct conceptualization. In this paper, several limitations are highlighted relating to their applicability to the construction of conceptualizations in dynamic and open environments. These limitations arise from a number of strong assumptions that do not apply to such environments. An intensional structure is strongly argued to be a natural and adequate modeling approach. This paper presents a conceptualization structure based on property, relations, and propositions theory (PRP) to the model ontology that is suitable for open environments. The model extends the First-Order Logic (FOL) notation and defines the formal representation that enables interoperability between software systems and supports semantic integration for software systems in open, dynamic environments.

Keywords: Conceptualization, ontology, extensional structure, intensional structure.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

Adequate management, control, and optimization of cost is an essential element for a successful construction project. A multiple linear regression optimization model was formulated to address the problem of costs associated with pile construction operations. A total of 32 PVC-reinforced concrete piles with diameter of 300 mm, 5.4 m long, were studied during the construction. The soil upon which the piles were installed was mostly silty sand, and completely submerged in water at Bonny, Nigeria. The piles are friction piles installed by boring method, using a piling auger. The volumes of soil removed, the weight of reinforcement cage installed, and volumes of fresh concrete poured into the PVC void were determined. The cost of constructing each pile based on the calculated quantities was determined. A model was derived and subjected to statistical tests using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The model turned out to be adequate, fit, and have a high predictive accuracy with an R2 value of 0.833.

Keywords: Cost optimization modelling, multiple linear models, pile construction, regression models.

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Authors: Jahanfar Daneshian, P. Jonoubi, D. Barari Tari

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In order to investigate water deficit stress on 24 of soybean (Glycine Max. L) cultivars and lines in temperate climate, an experiment was conducted in Iran Seed and Plant Improvement Institute. Stress levels were irrigation after evaporation of 50, 100, 150 mm water from pan, class A. Randomized Completely Block Design was arranged for each stress levels. Some traits such as, node number, plant height, pod number per area, grain number per pod, grain number per area, 1000 grains weight, grain yield and harvest index were measured. Results showed that water deficit stress had significant effect on node number, plant height, pod number per area, grain number per pod, grain number per area, 1000 grains weight and harvest index. Also all of agronomic traits except harvest index influenced significantly by cultivars and lines. The least and most grain yield was belonged to Ronak X Williams and M41 x Clark respectively.

Keywords: Soybean, water deficit stress, Agronomic traits, Yield

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Authors: Achut Manandhar, Kenneth D. Morton, Peter A. Torrione, Leslie M. Collins

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The current trends in affect recognition research are to consider continuous observations from spontaneous natural interactions in people using multiple feature modalities, and to represent affect in terms of continuous dimensions, incorporate spatio-temporal correlation among affect dimensions, and provide fast affect predictions. These research efforts have been propelled by a growing effort to develop affect recognition system that can be implemented to enable seamless real-time human-computer interaction in a wide variety of applications. Motivated by these desired attributes of an affect recognition system, in this work a multi-dimensional affect prediction approach is proposed by integrating multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM) with a recently developed Output-associative Relevance Vector Machine (OARVM) approach. The resulting approach can provide fast continuous affect predictions by jointly modeling the multiple affect dimensions and their correlations. Experiments on the RECOLA database show that the proposed approach performs competitively with the OARVM while providing faster predictions during testing.

Keywords: Dimensional affect prediction, Output-associative RVM, Multivariate regression.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Brody R. Clark, Chaminda Gallage, John Yeaman

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Multigrade bitumen asphalt is a quality asphalt product that is not utilised in many places globally. Multigrade bitumen is believed to be less sensitive to temperature, which gives it an advantage over conventional binders. Previous testing has shown that asphalt temperature changes greatly with depth, but currently the industry standard is to nominate a single temperature for design. For detailed design of asphalt roads, perhaps asphalt layers should be divided into nominal layer depths and different modulus and fatigue equations/values should be used to reflect the temperatures of each respective layer. A collaboration of previous laboratory testing conducted on multigrade bitumen asphalt beams under a range of temperatures and loading conditions was analysed. The samples tested included 0% or 15% recycled asphalt pavement (RAP) to determine what impact the recycled material has on the fatigue life and stiffness of the pavement. This paper investigated the temperature susceptibility of multigrade bitumen asphalt pavements compared to conventional binders by combining previous testing that included conducting a sweep of fatigue tests, developing complex modulus master curves for each mix and a study on how pavement temperature changes through pavement depth. This investigation found that the final design of the pavement is greatly affected by the nominated pavement temperature and respective material properties. This paper has outlined a potential revision to the current design approach for asphalt pavements and proposes that further investigation is needed into pavement temperature and its incorporation into design.

Keywords: Asphalt, complex modulus, fatigue life, flexural stiffness, four-point bending, master curves, multigrade bitumen, thermal gradient.

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Authors: Khalid M. Albarkoly, Kenneth S. Park

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The substantial development of the construction industry has forced the cement industry, its major support, to focus on achieving maximum productivity to meet the growing demand for this material. This means that the reliability of a cement production system needs to be at the highest level that can be achieved by good maintenance. This paper studies the extent to which the implementation of RCM is needed as a strategy for increasing the reliability of the production systems component can be increased, thus ensuring continuous productivity. In a case study of four Libyan cement factories, 80 employees were surveyed and 12 top and middle managers interviewed. It is evident that these factories usually breakdown more often than once per month which has led to a decline in productivity. In many times they cannot achieve the minimum level of production amount. This has resulted from the poor reliability of their production systems as a result of poor or insufficient maintenance. It has been found that most of the factories’ employees misunderstand maintenance and its importance. The main cause of this problem is the lack of qualified and trained staff, but in addition it has been found that most employees are not found to be motivated as a result of a lack of management support and interest. In response to these findings, it has been suggested that the RCM strategy should be implemented in the four factories. The results show the importance of the development of maintenance strategies through the implementation of RCM in these factories. The purpose of it would be to overcome the problems that could secure the reliability of the production systems. This study could be a useful source of information for academic researchers and the industrial organizations which are still experiencing problems in maintenance practices.

Keywords: Libyan cement industry, maintenance, production, reliability centered maintenance, reliability.

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Authors: Yung-Chien Sun, O. Grant Clark

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In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables" whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex" situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty. The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the complete database and create predictive models for the same 12 target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10% of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, intuition, knowledge acquisition, limited certainty.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi, Kenneth A. Okpala

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This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques and vector error correction mechanism were adopted to explore the macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria and to examine the influence of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The exchange rate showed an unstable and volatile movement in Nigeria. Official exchange rate significantly impacted on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria and shock to previous manufacturing sector output caused 60.76% of the fluctuation in the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Trade balance, trade openness and net international investments did not significantly determine exchange rate in Nigeria. However, own shock accounted for about 95% of the variation of exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and long-run. Among other macroeconomic variables, net international investment accounted for about 2.85% variation of the real effective exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and in the long-run. Monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production and government should formulate and implement policies that will develop other sectors of the economy as this will widen the country’s revenue base, reduce our over reliance on oil sector for our foreign exchange earnings and in turn reduce the shocks on our domestic economy.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange rate determinants, manufacturing sector, official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate, real effective exchange rate.

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Authors: Sindhu Govardhan, Kenneth G. Crowther

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Modernisation of the water sector is leading to increased connectivity and integration of emerging technologies with traditional ones, leading to new security risks. The convergence of Information Technology (IT) with Operation Technology (OT) results in solutions that are spread across larger geographic areas, increasingly consist of interconnected Industrial Internet of Things (IIOT) devices and software, rely on the integration of legacy with modern technologies, use of complex supply chain components leading to complex architectures and communication paths. The result is that multiple parties collectively own and operate these emergent technologies, threat actors find new paths to exploit, and traditional cybersecurity controls are inadequate. Our approach is to explicitly identify and draw data flows that cross trust boundaries between owners and operators of various aspects of these emerging and interconnected technologies. On these data flows, we layer potential attack vectors to create a frame of reference for evaluating possible risks against connected technologies. Finally, we identify where existing controls, mitigations, and other remediations exist across industry partners (e.g., suppliers, product vendors, integrators, water utilities, and regulators). From these, we are able to understand potential gaps in security, the roles in the supply chain that are most likely to effectively remediate those security gaps, and test cases to evaluate and strengthen security across these partners. This informs a “shared responsibility” solution that recognises that security is multi-layered and requires collaboration to be successful. This shared responsibility security framework improves visibility, understanding, and control across the entire supply chain, and particularly for those water utilities that are accountable for safe and continuous operations.

Keywords: Cyber security, shared responsibility, IIOT, threat modelling.

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Authors: Kenneth A. Ibe, Justina I. Mbonu, Godgift K. Umukoro

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The effects of wood ash from five common tropical woods on the ignition point of four common tropical woods in Nigeria were investigated. The ash and moisture contents of the wood sawdust from Mahogany (Khaya ivorensis), Opepe (Sarcocephalus latifolius), Abura (Mitragyna ciliata), Rubber (Heavea brasilensis) and Poroporo (Sorghum bicolour) used, were determined using a furnace (Vecstar furnaces, model ECF2, serial no. f3077) and oven (Genlab laboratory oven, model MINO/040) respectively. The metal contents of the five wood sawdust ash samples were determined using a Perkin Elmer optima 3000 dv atomic absorption spectrometer while the ignition points were determined using Vecstar furnaces model ECF2. Poroporo had the highest ash content, 2.263g while rubber had the least, 0.710g. The results for the moisture content range from 2.971g to 0.903g. Magnesium metal had the highest concentration of all the metals, in all the wood ash samples; with mahogany ash having the highest concentration, 9.196ppm while rubber ash had the least concentration of magnesium metal, 2.196 ppm. The ignition point results showed that the wood ashes from mahogany and opepe increased the ignition points of the test wood samples, Danta (Nesogordonia papaverifera), Ekpaya, Akomu (Pycnanthus angolensis) and Oleku when coated on them while the ashes from poroporo, rubber and abura decreased the ignition points of the test wood samples when coated on them. However, Opepe saw dust ash decreased the ignition point in one of the test wood samples, suggesting that the metal content of the test wood sample was more than that of the Opepe saw dust ash. Therefore, Mahogany and Opepe saw dust ashes could be used in the surface treatment of wood to enhance their fire resistance or retardancy. However, the caution to be exercised in this application is that the metal content of the test wood samples should be evaluated as well.

Keywords: Ash, fire, ignition point, retardant, wood saw dust.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Kenneth A. Okpala, Johnbull S. Ogboi

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A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution from Department For International Development (DFID)] and currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market. Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%). The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers (437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better address the issues raised in the study.

Keywords: Credit, health market, medical credit facility, policy.

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Authors: Ebenezer Kwesi Armah-Ansah, Kenneth Fosu Oteng, Esther Selasi Avinu, Eugene Budu, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw

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Maternal mortality, particularly in Benin, is a major public health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. To provide a positive pregnancy experience and reduce maternal morbidities, all pregnant women must get appropriate and timely prenatal support. However, many pregnant women in developing countries, including Benin, begin Antenatal Care (ANC) late. There is a paucity of empirical literature on the prevalence and predictors of early ANC visits in Benin. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence and predictors of early ANC visits among women of productive age in Benin. This is a secondary analysis of the 2017/2018 Benin Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data. The study involved 6,919 eligible women. Data analysis was conducted using Stata version 14.2 for Mac OS. We adopted a multilevel logistic regression to examine the predictors of early ANC visits in Benin. The results were presented as odds ratios (ORs) associated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-value < 0.05 to determine the significant associations. The prevalence of early ANC visits among pregnant women in Benin was 57.03% [95% CI: 55.41-58.64]. In the final multilevel logistic regression, early ANC visit was higher among women aged 30-34 [aOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.17-2.18] compared to those aged 15-19, women with primary education [aOR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.06-142] compared to the non-educated women, women who were covered by health insurance [aOR = 3.03, 95% CI = 1.35-6.76], women without a big problem in getting the money needed for treatment [aOR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.16-1.49], distance to the health facility, not a big problem [aOR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08-1.41], and women whose partners had secondary/higher education [aOR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.15-1.57] compared with those who were not covered by health insurance, had big problem in getting money needed for treatment, distance to health facility is a big problem and whose partners had no education respectively. However, women who had four or more births [aOR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.48-0.74] and those in Atacora Region [aOR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.37-0.68] had lower odds of early ANC visit. This study revealed a relatively high prevalence of early ANC visits among women of reproductive age in Benin. Women's age, educational status of women and their partners, parity, health insurance coverage, distance to health facilities, and region were all associated with early ANC visits among women of reproductive in Benin. These factors ought to be taken into account when developing ANC policies and strategies in order to boost early ANC visits among women in Benin. This will significantly reduce maternal and newborn mortality and help achieve the World Health Organization’s recommendation that all pregnant women should initiate early ANC visits within the first three months of pregnancy.

Keywords: Antenatal care, Benin, maternal health, pregnancy, DHS, public health.

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