Search results for: Bayesian reasoning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 309

Search results for: Bayesian reasoning

219 Improving Flash Flood Forecasting with a Bayesian Probabilistic Approach: A Case Study on the Posina Basin in Italy

Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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218 Continuity of Defuzzification and Its Application to Fuzzy Control

Authors: Takashi Mitsuishi, Kiyoshi Sawada, Yasunari Shidama

Abstract:

The mathematical framework for studying of a fuzzy approximate reasoning is presented in this paper. Two important defuzzification methods (Area defuzzification and Height defuzzification) besides the center of gravity method which is the best well known defuzzification method are described. The continuity of the defuzzification methods and its application to a fuzzy feedback control are discussed.

Keywords: Fuzzy approximate reasoning, defuzzification, area method, height method.

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217 Defining a Semantic Web-based Framework for Enabling Automatic Reasoning on CIM-based Management Platforms

Authors: Fernando Alonso, Rafael Fernandez, Sonia Frutos, Javier Soriano

Abstract:

CIM is the standard formalism for modeling management information developed by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF) in the context of its WBEM proposal, designed to provide a conceptual view of the managed environment. In this paper, we propose the inclusion of formal knowledge representation techniques, based on Description Logics (DLs) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL), in CIM-based conceptual modeling, and then we examine the benefits of such a decision. The proposal is specified as a CIM metamodel level mapping to a highly expressive subset of DLs capable of capturing all the semantics of the models. The paper shows how the proposed mapping provides CIM diagrams with precise semantics and can be used for automatic reasoning about the management information models, as a design aid, by means of newgeneration CASE tools, thanks to the use of state-of-the-art automatic reasoning systems that support the proposed logic and use algorithms that are sound and complete with respect to the semantics. Such a CASE tool framework has been developed by the authors and its architecture is also introduced. The proposed formalization is not only useful at design time, but also at run time through the use of rational autonomous agents, in response to a need recently recognized by the DMTF.

Keywords: CIM, Knowledge-based Information Models, OntologyLanguages, OWL, Description Logics, Integrated Network Management, Intelligent Agents, Automatic Reasoning Techniques.

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216 Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss

Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

Abstract:

This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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215 Control and Navigation with Knowledge Bases

Authors: Miloš Šeda, Tomáš Březina

Abstract:

In this paper, we focus on the use of knowledge bases in two different application areas – control of systems with unknown or strongly nonlinear models (i.e. hardly controllable by the classical methods), and robot motion planning in eight directions. The first one deals with fuzzy logic and the paper presents approaches for setting and aggregating the rules of a knowledge base. Te second one is concentrated on a case-based reasoning strategy for finding the path in a planar scene with obstacles.

Keywords: fuzzy controller, fuzzification, rule base, inference, defuzzification, genetic algorithm, neural network, case-based reasoning

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214 Bayesian Networks for Earthquake Magnitude Classification in a Early Warning System

Authors: G. Zazzaro, F.M. Pisano, G. Romano

Abstract:

During last decades, worldwide researchers dedicated efforts to develop machine-based seismic Early Warning systems, aiming at reducing the huge human losses and economic damages. The elaboration time of seismic waveforms is to be reduced in order to increase the time interval available for the activation of safety measures. This paper suggests a Data Mining model able to correctly and quickly estimate dangerousness of the running seismic event. Several thousand seismic recordings of Japanese and Italian earthquakes were analyzed and a model was obtained by means of a Bayesian Network (BN), which was tested just over the first recordings of seismic events in order to reduce the decision time and the test results were very satisfactory. The model was integrated within an Early Warning System prototype able to collect and elaborate data from a seismic sensor network, estimate the dangerousness of the running earthquake and take the decision of activating the warning promptly.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Decision Support System, Magnitude Classification, Seismic Early Warning System

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213 Bayesian Inference for Phase Unwrapping Using Conjugate Gradient Method in One and Two Dimensions

Authors: Yohei Saika, Hiroki Sakaematsu, Shota Akiyama

Abstract:

We investigated statistical performance of Bayesian inference using maximum entropy and MAP estimation for several models which approximated wave-fronts in remote sensing using SAR interferometry. Using Monte Carlo simulation for a set of wave-fronts generated by assumed true prior, we found that the method of maximum entropy realized the optimal performance around the Bayes-optimal conditions by using model of the true prior and the likelihood representing optical measurement due to the interferometer. Also, we found that the MAP estimation regarded as a deterministic limit of maximum entropy almost achieved the same performance as the Bayes-optimal solution for the set of wave-fronts. Then, we clarified that the MAP estimation perfectly carried out phase unwrapping without using prior information, and also that the MAP estimation realized accurate phase unwrapping using conjugate gradient (CG) method, if we assumed the model of the true prior appropriately.

Keywords: Bayesian inference using maximum entropy, MAP estimation using conjugate gradient method, SAR interferometry.

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212 Bond Graph and Bayesian Networks for Reliable Diagnosis

Authors: Abdelaziz Zaidi, Belkacem Ould Bouamama, Moncef Tagina

Abstract:

Bond Graph as a unified multidisciplinary tool is widely used not only for dynamic modelling but also for Fault Detection and Isolation because of its structural and causal proprieties. A binary Fault Signature Matrix is systematically generated but to make the final binary decision is not always feasible because of the problems revealed by such method. The purpose of this paper is introducing a methodology for the improvement of the classical binary method of decision-making, so that the unknown and identical failure signatures can be treated to improve the robustness. This approach consists of associating the evaluated residuals and the components reliability data to build a Hybrid Bayesian Network. This network is used in two distinct inference procedures: one for the continuous part and the other for the discrete part. The continuous nodes of the network are the prior probabilities of the components failures, which are used by the inference procedure on the discrete part to compute the posterior probabilities of the failures. The developed methodology is applied to a real steam generator pilot process.

Keywords: Redundancy relations, decision-making, Bond Graph, reliability, Bayesian Networks.

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211 Feature-Driven Classification of Musical Styles

Authors: A. Buzzanca, G. Castellano, A.M. Fanelli

Abstract:

In this paper we address the problem of musical style classification, which has a number of applications like indexing in musical databases or automatic composition systems. Starting from MIDI files of real-world improvisations, we extract the melody track and cut it into overlapping segments of equal length. From these fragments, some numerical features are extracted as descriptors of style samples. We show that a standard Bayesian classifier can be conveniently employed to build an effective musical style classifier, once this set of features has been extracted from musical data. Preliminary experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed classifier that represents the first component of a musical audio retrieval system

Keywords: Musical style, Bayesian classifier.

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210 Ontology-Based Backpropagation Neural Network Classification and Reasoning Strategy for NoSQL and SQL Databases

Authors: Hao-Hsiang Ku, Ching-Ho Chi

Abstract:

Big data applications have become an imperative for many fields. Many researchers have been devoted into increasing correct rates and reducing time complexities. Hence, the study designs and proposes an Ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy for NoSQL big data applications, which is called ON4NoSQL. ON4NoSQL is responsible for enhancing the performances of classifications in NoSQL and SQL databases to build up mass behavior models. Mass behavior models are made by MapReduce techniques and Hadoop distributed file system based on Hadoop service platform. The reference engine of ON4NoSQL is the ontology-based backpropagation neural network classification and reasoning strategy. Simulation results indicate that ON4NoSQL can efficiently achieve to construct a high performance environment for data storing, searching, and retrieving.

Keywords: Hadoop, NoSQL, ontology, backpropagation neural network, and high distributed file system.

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209 Public Economic Efficiency and Case-Based Reasoning: A Theoretical Framework to Police Performance

Authors: Javier Parra-Domínguez, Juan Manuel Corchado

Abstract:

At present, public efficiency is a concept that intends to maximize return on public investment focus on minimizing the use of resources and maximizing the outputs. The concept takes into account statistical criteria drawn up according to techniques such as DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The purpose of the current work is to consider, more precisely, the theoretical application of CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) from economics and computer science, as a preliminary step to improving the efficiency of law enforcement agencies (public sector). With the aim of increasing the efficiency of the public sector, we have entered into a phase whose main objective is the implementation of new technologies. Our main conclusion is that the application of computer techniques, such as CBR, has become key to the efficiency of the public sector, which continues to require economic valuation based on methodologies such as DEA. As a theoretical result and conclusion, the incorporation of CBR systems will reduce the number of inputs and increase, theoretically, the number of outputs generated based on previous computer knowledge.

Keywords: Case-based reasoning, knowledge, police, public efficiency.

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208 Semantic Web Agent Communication Capable of Reasoning with Ontology and Agent Locations

Authors: Visit Hirankitti, Vuong Tran Xuan

Abstract:

Multi-agent communication of Semantic Web information cannot be realized without the need to reason with ontology and agent locations. This is because for an agent to be able to reason with an external semantic web ontology, it must know where and how to access to that ontology. Similarly, for an agent to be able to communicate with another agent, it must know where and how to send a message to that agent. In this paper we propose a framework of an agent which can reason with ontology and agent locations in order to perform reasoning with multiple distributed ontologies and perform communication with other agents on the semantic web. The agent framework and its communication mechanism are formulated entirely in meta-logic.

Keywords: Semantic Web, agent communication, ontologies.

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207 Order Statistics-based “Anti-Bayesian“ Parametric Classification for Asymmetric Distributions in the Exponential Family

Authors: A. Thomas, B. John Oommen

Abstract:

Although the field of parametric Pattern Recognition (PR) has been thoroughly studied for over five decades, the use of the Order Statistics (OS) of the distributions to achieve this has not been reported. The pioneering work on using OS for classification was presented in [1] for the Uniform distribution, where it was shown that optimal PR can be achieved in a counter-intuitive manner, diametrically opposed to the Bayesian paradigm, i.e., by comparing the testing sample to a few samples distant from the mean. This must be contrasted with the Bayesian paradigm in which, if we are allowed to compare the testing sample with only a single point in the feature space from each class, the optimal strategy would be to achieve this based on the (Mahalanobis) distance from the corresponding central points, for example, the means. In [2], we showed that the results could be extended for a few symmetric distributions within the exponential family. In this paper, we attempt to extend these results significantly by considering asymmetric distributions within the exponential family, for some of which even the closed form expressions of the cumulative distribution functions are not available. These distributions include the Rayleigh, Gamma and certain Beta distributions. As in [1] and [2], the new scheme, referred to as Classification by Moments of Order Statistics (CMOS), attains an accuracy very close to the optimal Bayes’ bound, as has been shown both theoretically and by rigorous experimental testing.

Keywords: Classification using Order Statistics (OS), Exponential family, Moments of OS

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206 Bayesian Network Model for Students- Laboratory Work Performance Assessment: An Empirical Investigation of the Optimal Construction Approach

Authors: Ifeyinwa E. Achumba, Djamel Azzi, Rinat Khusainov

Abstract:

There are three approaches to complete Bayesian Network (BN) model construction: total expert-centred, total datacentred, and semi data-centred. These three approaches constitute the basis of the empirical investigation undertaken and reported in this paper. The objective is to determine, amongst these three approaches, which is the optimal approach for the construction of a BN-based model for the performance assessment of students- laboratory work in a virtual electronic laboratory environment. BN models were constructed using all three approaches, with respect to the focus domain, and compared using a set of optimality criteria. In addition, the impact of the size and source of the training, on the performance of total data-centred and semi data-centred models was investigated. The results of the investigation provide additional insight for BN model constructors and contribute to literature providing supportive evidence for the conceptual feasibility and efficiency of structure and parameter learning from data. In addition, the results highlight other interesting themes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, model construction, parameterlearning, structure learning, performance index, model comparison.

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205 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data

Authors: Jan Sindelar

Abstract:

The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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204 Applying Case-Based Reasoning in Supporting Strategy Decisions

Authors: S. M. Seyedhosseini, A. Makui, M. Ghadami

Abstract:

Globalization and therefore increasing tight competition among companies, have resulted to increase the importance of making well-timed decision. Devising and employing effective strategies, that are flexible and adaptive to changing market, stand a greater chance of being effective in the long-term. In other side, a clear focus on managing the entire product lifecycle has emerged as critical areas for investment. Therefore, applying wellorganized tools to employ past experience in new case, helps to make proper and managerial decisions. Case based reasoning (CBR) is based on a means of solving a new problem by using or adapting solutions to old problems. In this paper, an adapted CBR model with k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) is employed to provide suggestions for better decision making which are adopted for a given product in the middle of life phase. The set of solutions are weighted by CBR in the principle of group decision making. Wrapper approach of genetic algorithm is employed to generate optimal feature subsets. The dataset of the department store, including various products which are collected among two years, have been used. K-fold approach is used to evaluate the classification accuracy rate. Empirical results are compared with classical case based reasoning algorithm which has no special process for feature selection, CBR-PCA algorithm based on filter approach feature selection, and Artificial Neural Network. The results indicate that the predictive performance of the model, compare with two CBR algorithms, in specific case is more effective.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Genetic algorithm, Groupdecision making, Product management.

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203 Health Risk Assessment for Sewer Workers using Bayesian Belief Networks

Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

The sanitary sewerage connection rate becomes an important indicator of advanced cities. Following the construction of sanitary sewerages, the maintenance and management systems are required for keeping pipelines and facilities functioning well. These maintenance tasks often require sewer workers to enter the manholes and the pipelines, which are confined spaces short of natural ventilation and full of hazardous substances. Working in sewers could be easily exposed to a risk of adverse health effects. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of noncarcinogenic health risk assessment of sewer workers. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances in sewers and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity and mortality of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity and mortality rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, sanitary sewerage, healthrisk assessment, hazard quotient, target organ-specific hazard index.

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202 Feature Selection for Breast Cancer Diagnosis: A Case-Based Wrapper Approach

Authors: Mohammad Darzi, Ali AsgharLiaei, Mahdi Hosseini, HabibollahAsghari

Abstract:

This article addresses feature selection for breast cancer diagnosis. The present process contains a wrapper approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and case-based reasoning (CBR). GA is used for searching the problem space to find all of the possible subsets of features and CBR is employed to estimate the evaluation result of each subset. The results of experiment show that the proposed model is comparable to the other models on Wisconsin breast cancer (WDBC) dataset.

Keywords: Case-based reasoning; Breast cancer diagnosis; Genetic algorithm; Wrapper feature selection

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201 Improved Dynamic Bayesian Networks Applied to Arabic on Line Characters Recognition

Authors: Redouane Tlemsani, Abdelkader Benyettou

Abstract:

Work is in on line Arabic character recognition and the principal motivation is to study the Arab manuscript with on line technology.

This system is a Markovian system, which one can see as like a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). One of the major interests of these systems resides in the complete models training (topology and parameters) starting from training data.

Our approach is based on the dynamic Bayesian Networks formalism. The DBNs theory is a Bayesians networks generalization to the dynamic processes. Among our objective, amounts finding better parameters, which represent the links (dependences) between dynamic network variables.

In applications in pattern recognition, one will carry out the fixing of the structure, which obliges us to admit some strong assumptions (for example independence between some variables). Our application will relate to the Arabic isolated characters on line recognition using our laboratory database: NOUN. A neural tester proposed for DBN external optimization.

The DBN scores and DBN mixed are respectively 70.24% and 62.50%, which lets predict their further development; other approaches taking account time were considered and implemented until obtaining a significant recognition rate 94.79%.

Keywords: Arabic on line character recognition, dynamic Bayesian network, pattern recognition.

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200 Information Fusion as a Means of Forecasting Expenditures for Regenerating Complex Investment Goods

Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

Abstract:

Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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199 Generalized Mean-field Theory of Phase Unwrapping via Multiple Interferograms

Authors: Yohei Saika

Abstract:

On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, statistical mechanics.

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198 Sequential Partitioning Brainbow Image Segmentation Using Bayesian

Authors: Yayun Hsu, Henry Horng-Shing Lu

Abstract:

This paper proposes a data-driven, biology-inspired neural segmentation method of 3D drosophila Brainbow images. We use Bayesian Sequential Partitioning algorithm for probabilistic modeling, which can be used to detect somas and to eliminate crosstalk effects. This work attempts to develop an automatic methodology for neuron image segmentation, which nowadays still lacks a complete solution due to the complexity of the image. The proposed method does not need any predetermined, risk-prone thresholds, since biological information is inherently included inside the image processing procedure. Therefore, it is less sensitive to variations in neuron morphology; meanwhile, its flexibility would be beneficial for tracing the intertwining structure of neurons.

Keywords: Brainbow, 3D imaging, image segmentation, neuron morphology, biological data mining, non-parametric learning.

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197 Mining Network Data for Intrusion Detection through Naïve Bayesian with Clustering

Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Nouria Harbi, Suman Ahmmed, Md. Zahidur Rahman, Chowdhury Mofizur Rahman

Abstract:

Network security attacks are the violation of information security policy that received much attention to the computational intelligence society in the last decades. Data mining has become a very useful technique for detecting network intrusions by extracting useful knowledge from large number of network data or logs. Naïve Bayesian classifier is one of the most popular data mining algorithm for classification, which provides an optimal way to predict the class of an unknown example. It has been tested that one set of probability derived from data is not good enough to have good classification rate. In this paper, we proposed a new learning algorithm for mining network logs to detect network intrusions through naïve Bayesian classifier, which first clusters the network logs into several groups based on similarity of logs, and then calculates the prior and conditional probabilities for each group of logs. For classifying a new log, the algorithm checks in which cluster the log belongs and then use that cluster-s probability set to classify the new log. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm by employing KDD99 benchmark network intrusion detection dataset, and the experimental results proved that it improves detection rates as well as reduces false positives for different types of network intrusions.

Keywords: Clustering, detection rate, false positive, naïveBayesian classifier, network intrusion detection.

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196 The Effect of Information vs. Reasoning Gap Tasks on the Frequency of Conversational Strategies and Accuracy in Speaking among Iranian Intermediate EFL Learners

Authors: Hooriya Sadr Dadras, Shiva Seyed Erfani

Abstract:

Speaking skills merit meticulous attention both on the side of the learners and the teachers. In particular, accuracy is a critical component to guarantee the messages to be conveyed through conversation because a wrongful change may adversely alter the content and purpose of the talk. Different types of tasks have served teachers to meet numerous educational objectives. Besides, negotiation of meaning and the use of different strategies have been areas of concern in socio-cultural theories of SLA. Negotiation of meaning is among the conversational processes which have a crucial role in facilitating the understanding and expression of meaning in a given second language. Conversational strategies are used during interaction when there is a breakdown in communication that leads to the interlocutor attempting to remedy the gap through talk. Therefore, this study was an attempt to investigate if there was any significant difference between the effect of reasoning gap tasks and information gap tasks on the frequency of conversational strategies used in negotiation of meaning in classrooms on one hand, and on the accuracy in speaking of Iranian intermediate EFL learners on the other. After a pilot study to check the practicality of the treatments, at the outset of the main study, the Preliminary English Test was administered to ensure the homogeneity of 87 out of 107 participants who attended the intact classes of a 15 session term in one control and two experimental groups. Also, speaking sections of PET were used as pretest and posttest to examine their speaking accuracy. The tests were recorded and transcribed to estimate the percentage of the number of the clauses with no grammatical errors in the total produced clauses to measure the speaking accuracy. In all groups, the grammatical points of accuracy were instructed and the use of conversational strategies was practiced. Then, different kinds of reasoning gap tasks (matchmaking, deciding on the course of action, and working out a time table) and information gap tasks (restoring an incomplete chart, spot the differences, arranging sentences into stories, and guessing game) were manipulated in experimental groups during treatment sessions, and the students were required to practice conversational strategies when doing speaking tasks. The conversations throughout the terms were recorded and transcribed to count the frequency of the conversational strategies used in all groups. The results of statistical analysis demonstrated that applying both the reasoning gap tasks and information gap tasks significantly affected the frequency of conversational strategies through negotiation. In the face of the improvements, the reasoning gap tasks had a more significant impact on encouraging the negotiation of meaning and increasing the number of conversational frequencies every session. The findings also indicated both task types could help learners significantly improve their speaking accuracy. Here, applying the reasoning gap tasks was more effective than the information gap tasks in improving the level of learners’ speaking accuracy.

Keywords: Accuracy in speaking, conversational strategies, information gap tasks, reasoning gap tasks.

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195 Effect of Progressive Type-I Right Censoring on Bayesian Statistical Inference of Simple Step–Stress Acceleration Life Testing Plan under Weibull Life Distribution

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the Pth percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: Reliability, Accelerated life testing, Cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, Progressive Type-I censoring, Weibull distribution.

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194 The Potential Benefits of Multimedia Information Representation in Enhancing Students’ Critical Thinking and History Reasoning

Authors: Ang Ling Weay, Mona Masood

Abstract:

This paper discusses the potential benefits of an interactive multimedia information representation in enhancing students’ critical thinking aligned with history reasoning in learning history amongst Secondary School students in Malaysia. Two modes of multimedia information representation were implemented; chronologic and thematic information representations. A qualitative study of an unstructured interview was conducted among two history teachers, one history education lecturer, two i-think experts, and five students from Form Four secondary school. The interview was to elicit their opinions on the implementation of thinking maps and interactive multimedia information representation in history learning. The key elements of the interactive multimedia (e.g. multiple media, user control, interactivity and use of timelines and concept maps) were then considered to improve the learning process. Findings of the preliminary investigation reveal that the interactive multimedia information representations have the potential benefits to be implemented as an instructional resource in enhancing students’ higher order thinking skills (HOTs). This paper concludes by giving suggestions for future work.

Keywords: Multimedia Information Representation, Critical Thinking, History Reasoning, Chronological and Thematic Information Representation.

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193 REDUCER – An Architectural Design Pattern for Reducing Large and Noisy Data Sets

Authors: Apkar Salatian

Abstract:

To relieve the burden of reasoning on a point to point basis, in many domains there is a need to reduce large and noisy data sets into trends for qualitative reasoning. In this paper we propose and describe a new architectural design pattern called REDUCER for reducing large and noisy data sets that can be tailored for particular situations. REDUCER consists of 2 consecutive processes: Filter which takes the original data and removes outliers, inconsistencies or noise; and Compression which takes the filtered data and derives trends in the data. In this seminal article we also show how REDUCER has successfully been applied to 3 different case studies.

Keywords: Design Pattern, filtering, compression.

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192 Integrating E-learning Environments with Computational Intelligence Assessment Agents

Authors: Christos E. Alexakos, Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Eleni J. Thermogianni, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D. Likothanassis

Abstract:

In this contribution an innovative platform is being presented that integrates intelligent agents in legacy e-learning environments. It introduces the design and development of a scalable and interoperable integration platform supporting various assessment agents for e-learning environments. The agents are implemented in order to provide intelligent assessment services to computational intelligent techniques such as Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The utilization of new and emerging technologies like web services allows integrating the provided services to any web based legacy e-learning environment.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Computational Intelligence techniques, E-learning legacy systems, Service Oriented Integration, Intelligent Agents

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191 Context Modeling and Reasoning Approach in Context-Aware Middleware for URC System

Authors: Chung-Seong Hong, Hyung-Sun Kim, Joonmyun Cho, Hyun Kyu Cho, Hyun-Chan Lee

Abstract:

To realize the vision of ubiquitous computing, it is important to develop a context-aware infrastructure which can help ubiquitous agents, services, and devices become aware of their contexts because such computational entities need to adapt themselves to changing situations. A context-aware infrastructure manages the context model representing contextual information and provides appropriate information. In this paper, we introduce Context-Aware Middleware for URC System (hereafter CAMUS) as a context-aware infrastructure for a network-based intelligent robot system and discuss the ontology-based context modeling and reasoning approach which is used in that infrastructure.

Keywords: CAMUS, Context-Aware, Context Model, Ontology.

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190 Testing Visual Abilities of Machines - Visual Intelligence Tests

Authors: Zbigniew Les, Magdalena Les

Abstract:

Intelligence tests are series of tasks designed to measure the capacity to make abstractions, to learn, and to deal with novel situations. Testing of the visual abilities of the shape understanding system (SUS) is performed based on the visual intelligence tests. In this paper the progressive matrices tests are formulated as tasks given to SUS. These tests require good visual problem solving abilities of the human subject. SUS solves these tests by performing complex visual reasoning transforming the visual forms (tests) into the string forms. The experiment proved that the proposed method, which is part of the SUS visual understanding abilities, can solve a test that is very difficult for human subject.

Keywords: Shape understanding, intelligence test, visual concept, visual reasoning.

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