Search results for: 3-D electronic models.

Authors: Vijay Gajanan Neve, Pallavi V. Pullawar, G. M. Dhole

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Modern industrial processes are based on a large amount of electronic devices such as programmable logic controllers and adjustable speed drives. Unfortunately, electronic devices are sensitive to disturbances, and thus, industrial loads become less tolerant to power quality problems such as sags, swells, and harmonics. Voltage sags are an important power quality problem. In this paper proposed a new configuration of Static Var Compensator (SVC) considering three different conditions named as topologies and Booster transformer with fuzzy logic based controller, capable of compensating for power quality problems associated with voltage sags and maintaining a prescribed level of voltage profile. Fuzzy logic controller is designed to achieve the firing angles for SVC such that it maintains voltage profile. The online monitoring system for voltage sag mitigation in the laboratory using the hardware is used. The results are presented from the performance of each topology and Booster transformer considered in this paper.

Keywords: Booster Transformer, Fuzzy logic, Static Var Compensator, Voltage sag.

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Authors: Dev Ras Pandey, Bharat Mishra, S. K. Tripathi

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Cloud computing is ready to transform the structure of businesses and learning through supplying the real-time applications and provide an immediate help for small to medium sized businesses. The ability to run a hypervisor inside a virtual machine is important feature of virtualization and it is called nested virtualization. In today’s growing field of information technology, many of the virtualization models are available, that provide a convenient approach to implement, but decision for a single model selection is difficult. This paper explains the applications of operating system based virtualization in cloud computing with an appropriate/suitable model with their different specifications and user’s requirements. In the present paper, most popular models are selected, and the selection was based on container and hypervisor based virtualization. Selected models were compared with a wide range of user’s requirements as number of CPUs, memory size, nested virtualization supports, live migration and commercial supports, etc. and we identified a most suitable model of virtualization.

Keywords: Virtualization, OS based virtualization, container and hypervisor based virtualization.

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Authors: Salah Alrabeei, Mohammad Yousuf

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The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial future by theoretically valuing their options. However, most of the option pricing models have no analytical solution. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this paper, we solve the American option under jump diffusion models by using efficient time-dependent numerical methods. several techniques are integrated to reduced the overcome the computational complexity. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM). Partial fraction decomposition technique is applied to rational approximation schemes to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices. The proposed method is easy to implement on serial or parallel versions. Numerical results are presented to prove the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Integral differential equations, American options, jump–diffusion model, rational approximation.

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Authors: D. S. C. Soares, D. G. Costa, J. T. S., A. K. S. Abud, T. P. Nunes, A. M. Oliveira Júnior

Abstract:

Mathematical models of drying are used for the purpose of understanding the drying process in order to determine important parameters for design and operation of the dryer. The jackfruit is a fruit with high consumption in the Northeast and perishability. It is necessary to apply techniques to improve their conservation for longer in order to diffuse it by regions with low consumption. This study aimed to analyze several mathematical models (Page, Lewis, and Midilli) to indicate one that best fits the conditions of convective drying process using performance indicators associated with each model: accuracy (Af) and noise factors (Bf), mean square error (RMSE) and standard error of prediction (% SEP). Jackfruit drying was carried out in convective type tray dryer at a temperature of 50°C for 9 hours. It is observed that the model Midili was more accurate with Af: 1.39, Bf: 1.33, RMSE: 0.01%, and SEP: 5.34. However, the use of the Model Midilli is not appropriate for purposes of control process due to need four tuning parameters. With the performance indicators used in this paper, the Page model showed similar results with only two parameters. It is concluded that the best correlation between the experimental and estimated data is given by the Page’s model.

Keywords: Drying, models, jackfruit.

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Authors: Paula Pascoal-Faria, Rúben Pereira, Elodie Pinto, Miguel Belbut, Ana Rosa, Inês Sousa, Nuno Alves

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Apple bruise damage from harvesting, handling, transporting and sorting is considered to be the major source of reduced fruit quality, resulting in loss of profits for the entire fruit industry. The three factors which can physically cause fruit bruising are vibration, compression load and impact, the latter being the most common source of bruise damage. Therefore, prediction of the level of damage, stress distribution and deformation of the fruits under external force has become a very important challenge. In this study, experimental and numerical methods were used to better understand the impact caused when an apple is dropped from different heights onto a plastic surface and a conveyor belt. Results showed that the extent of fruit damage is significantly higher for plastic surface, being dependent on the height. In order to support the development of a biomimetic electronic device for the determination of fruit damage, the mechanical properties of the apple fruit were determined using mechanical tests. Preliminary results showed different values for the Young’s modulus according to the zone of the apple tested. Along with the mechanical characterization of the apple fruit, the development of the first two prototypes is discussed and the integration of the results obtained to construct the final element model of the apple is presented. This work will help to reduce significantly the bruise damage of fruits or vegetables during the entire processing which will allow the introduction of exportation destines and consequently an increase in the economic profits in this sector.

Keywords: Apple, fruit damage, impact during crop and post-crop, mechanical characterization of the apple, numerical evaluation of fruit bruise damage, electronic device.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ryohei Orihara

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This paper proposes a new method for analyzing textual data. The method deals with items of textual data, where each item is described based on various viewpoints. The method acquires 2- class classification models of the viewpoints by applying an inductive learning method to items with multiple viewpoints. The method infers whether the viewpoints are assigned to the new items or not by using the models. The method extracts expressions from the new items classified into the viewpoints and extracts characteristic expressions corresponding to the viewpoints by comparing the frequency of expressions among the viewpoints. This paper also applies the method to questionnaire data given by guests at a hotel and verifies its effect through numerical experiments.

Keywords: Text mining, Multiple viewpoints, Differential analysis, Questionnaire data

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Authors: Justinian Anatory, Nelson Theethayi

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The paper compares different channel models used for modeling Broadband Power-Line Communication (BPLC) system. The models compared are Zimmermann and Dostert, Philipps, Anatory et al and Anatory et al generalized Transmission Line (TL) model. The validity of each model was compared in time domain with ATP-EMTP software which uses transmission line approach. It is found that for a power-line network with minimum number of branches all the models give similar signal/pulse time responses compared with ATP-EMTP software; however, Zimmermann and Dostert model indicates the same amplitude but different time delay. It is observed that when the numbers of branches are increased only generalized TL theory approach results are comparable with ATPEMTP results. Also the Multi-Carrier Spread Spectrum (MC-SS) system was applied to check the implication of such behavior on the modulation schemes. It is observed that using Philipps on the underground cable can predict the performance up to 25dB better than other channel models which can misread the actual performance of the system. Also modified Zimmermann and Dostert under multipath can predict a better performance of about 5dB better than the actual predicted by Generalized TL theory. It is therefore suggested for a realistic BPLC system design and analyses the model based on generalized TL theory be used.

Keywords: Broadband Power line Channel Models, loadimpedance, Branched network.

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Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Samar El-shinawy

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Many approaches to pattern recognition are founded on probability theory, and can be broadly characterized as either generative or discriminative according to whether or not the distribution of the image features. Generative and discriminative models have very different characteristics, as well as complementary strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we study these models to recognize the patterns of alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9). To handle isolated pattern, generative model as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and discriminative models like Conditional Random Field (CRF), Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) and Latent-Dynamic Conditional Random Field (LDCRF) with different number of window size are applied on extracted pattern features. The gesture recognition rate is improved initially as the window size increase, but degrades as window size increase further. Experimental results show that the LDCRF is the best in terms of results than CRF, HCRF and HMM at window size equal 4. Additionally, our results show that; an overall recognition rates are 91.52%, 95.28%, 96.94% and 98.05% for CRF, HCRF, HMM and LDCRF respectively.

Keywords: Statistical Pattern Recognition, Generative Model, Discriminative Model, Human Computer Interaction.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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Based on the component approach, three kinds of dynamic load models, including a single –motor model, a two-motor model and composite load model have been developed for the stability studies of Khuzestan power system. The study results are presented in this paper. Voltage instability is a dynamic phenomenon and therefore requires dynamic representation of the power system components. Industrial loads contain a large fraction of induction machines. Several models of different complexity are available for the description investigations. This study evaluates the dynamic performances of several dynamic load models in combination with the dynamics of a load changing transformer. Case study is steel industrial substation in Khuzestan power systems.

Keywords: Dynamic load, modeling, Voltage Stability.

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Authors: Toshihiko Matsuka, James E. Corter

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Most neural network (NN) models of human category learning use a gradient-based learning method, which assumes that locally-optimal changes are made to model parameters on each learning trial. This method tends to under predict variability in individual-level cognitive processes. In addition many recent models of human category learning have been criticized for not being able to replicate rapid changes in categorization accuracy and attention processes observed in empirical studies. In this paper we introduce stochastic learning algorithms for NN models of human category learning and show that use of the algorithms can result in (a) rapid changes in accuracy and attention allocation, and (b) different learning trajectories and more realistic variability at the individual-level.

Keywords: category learning, cognitive modeling, radial basis function, stochastic optimization.

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Authors: Shunzuo Wu, Xudong Luo, Yuanxiu Liao

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Recently, the rapid development of deep learning makes artificial intelligence (AI) penetrate into many fields, replacing manual work there. In particular, AI systems also become a research focus in the field of automatic office. To meet real needs in automatic officiating, in this paper we develop an automatic form filling system. Specifically, it uses two classical neural network models and several word embedding models to classify various relevant information elicited from the Internet. When training the neural network models, we use less noisy and balanced data for training. We conduct a series of experiments to test my systems and the results show that our system can achieve better classification results.

Keywords: Personal information, deep learning, auto fill, NLP, document analysis.

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Authors: Gustavo Rodrigues, Hans Weber, Larissa Driemeier

Abstract:

The prevision of post-impact conditions and the behavior of the bodies during the impact have been object of several collision models. The formulation from Hertz’s theory is generally used dated from the 19^th century. These models consider the repulsive force as proportional to the deformation of the bodies under contact and may consider it proportional to the rate of deformation. The objective of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the bodies during impact using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with elastic and plastic material models. The main parameters to evaluate are, the contact force, the time of contact and the deformation of the bodies. An advantage of using the FEM approach is the possibility to apply a plastic deformation to the model according to the material definition: there will be used Johnson–Cook plasticity model whose parameters are obtained through empirical tests of real materials. This model allows analyzing the permanent deformation caused by impact, phenomenon observed in real world depending on the forces applied to the body. These results are compared between them and with the model-based Hertz theory.

Keywords: Collision, finite element method, Hertz’s Theory, impact models.

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Authors: Loke Kean Koay, Horizon Gitano-Briggs, Mani Maran Ratnam

Abstract:

Today air-core coils (ACC) are a viable alternative to ferrite-core coils in a range of applications due to their low induction effect. An analytical study was carried out and the results were used as a guide to understand the relationship between the magnet-coil distance and the resulting attractive magnetic force. Four different ACC models were fabricated for experimental study. The variation in the models included the dimensions, the number of coil turns and the current supply to the coil. Comparison between the analytical and experimental results for all the models shows an average discrepancy of less than 10%. An optimized ACC design was selected for the scanner which can provide maximum magnetic force.

Keywords: Air-Core Coils, Electromagnetic, Linear Optical Scanner

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Authors: Adebisi. Elizabeth, Banjo

Abstract:

Language and culture are interwoven that they cannot be separated, for the knowledge of a language cannot be complete without having the culture of the language. Indigenous food is a cultural aspect of any language that is expected to be acquired by all the speakers of the language. Indigenous food is known to be vital right from early years, which is also attributed to the healthy living of the ancient people. However it is discovered that the indigenous food is almost being replaced by fast food products such as Indomie noodles, Spaghetti and Macaroni to the extent that majority of the young folks prefer the eating of the fast foods and cannot prepare the indigenous foods which are good for growth and healthy living of people. Therefore, there is need to revitalize and re-educate people on the indigenous food which is an aspect of inter-cultural education of any language to prevent it from being forgotten or neglected.

African foods are many, but this study focused on Nigerian food using some Yoruba dishes as a case study. Examples of Yoruba dishes are pounded yam and melon with vegetable and dried fish soup, beans pudding (moin moin) and pap (eko), water yam pudding with fish and meat (ikokore) and many more. The ingredients needed for the preparation of these indigenous foods contain some basic food nutrients which will be analyzed and their nutritional importance to human bodies will also be discussed.

The process of re- awakening the education of indigenous food to the present and up-coming generation should be via print and electronic media in form of advertisements on posters, billboards, calendars and in rhymes on television programs, radio presentations, video tapes and CD–ROM apart from classroom teaching and learning. Indigenous food is a panacea to healthy living and longevity, a prevention of diseases and a means of accelerated healing of the body through natural foods.

Keywords: Indigenous food, print and electronic media, nutritional values, re-awakening education.

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Authors: RajPal Garg, Kapil Sharma, Rajive Kumar, R. K. Garg

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This paper presents a computational methodology based on matrix operations for a computer based solution to the problem of performance analysis of software reliability models (SRMs). A set of seven comparison criteria have been formulated to rank various non-homogenous Poisson process software reliability models proposed during the past 30 years to estimate software reliability measures such as the number of remaining faults, software failure rate, and software reliability. Selection of optimal SRM for use in a particular case has been an area of interest for researchers in the field of software reliability. Tools and techniques for software reliability model selection found in the literature cannot be used with high level of confidence as they use a limited number of model selection criteria. A real data set of middle size software project from published papers has been used for demonstration of matrix method. The result of this study will be a ranking of SRMs based on the Permanent value of the criteria matrix formed for each model based on the comparison criteria. The software reliability model with highest value of the Permanent is ranked at number – 1 and so on.

Keywords: Matrix method, Model ranking, Model selection, Model selection criteria, Software reliability models.

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Authors: Wei Lei, Hui Chen, Lin Lu

Abstract:

Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx, and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover, the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.

Keywords: Emission, Fuel consumption, Light-duty vehicle, Microscopic, Modeling.

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Authors: V. Fayaz , F. Felegary

Abstract:

Here, in this work we study correspondence the energy density New agegraphic and the energy density Gauss- Bonnet models in flat universe. We reconstruct Λ  and Λ ω for them with 0 ( ) 0 h a t = a t .

Keywords: dark energy, new age graphic, gauss- bonnet, late time universe

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Authors: Thevaneyan K. David, John P. Forth

Abstract:

Integral Abutment Bridges (IAB) are defined as simple or multiple span bridges in which the bridge deck is cast monolithically with the abutment walls. This kind of bridges are becoming very popular due to different aspects such as good response under seismic loading, low initial costs, elimination of bearings, and less maintenance. However the main issue related to the analysis of this type of structures is dealing with soil-structure interaction of the abutment walls and the supporting piles. Various soil constitutive models have been used in studies of soil-structure interaction in this kind of structures by researchers. This paper is an effort to review the implementation of various finite elements model which explicitly incorporates the nonlinear soil and linear structural response considering various soil constitutive models and finite element mesh.

Keywords: Constitutive Models, FEM, Integral AbutmentBridges, Soil-structure Interactions

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation.

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Authors: Mir Shahriar Emami

Abstract:

Although it is fully impossible to ensure that a software system is quite secure, developing an acceptable secure software system in a convenient platform is not unreachable. In this paper, we attempt to analyze software development life cycle (SDLC) models from the hardware systems and circuits point of view. To date, the SDLC models pay merely attention to the software security from the software perspectives. In this paper, we present new features for SDLC stages to emphasize the role of systems and circuits in developing secure software system through the software development stages, the point that has not been considered previously in the SDLC models.

Keywords: Systems and circuits security, software security, software process engineering, SDLC, SSDLC.

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Authors: Andreas Körtge, Susanne Stählke, Regina Lange, Mario Birkholz, Mirko Fraschke, Katrin Schulz, Barbara Nebe, Patrick Elter

Abstract:

A major challenge in biomaterials research is the regulation of protein adsorption which is a key factor for controlling the subsequent cell adhesion at implant surfaces. The aim of the present study was to control the adsorption of fibronectin (FN) and the attachment of MG-63 osteoblasts with an electronic nanostructure. Shallow doping line lattices with a period of 260 nm were produced for this purpose by implantation of phosphorous in silicon wafers. Protein coverage was determined after incubating the substrate with FN by means of an immunostaining procedure and the measurement of the fluorescence intensity with a TECAN analyzer. We observed an increased amount of adsorbed FN on the nanostructure compared to control substrates. MG-63 osteoblasts were cultivated for 24h on FN-incubated substrates and their morphology was assessed by SEM. Preferred orientation and elongation of the cells in direction of the doping lattice lines was observed on FN-coated nanostructures.

Keywords: Cell adhesion, electronic nanostructures, doping lattice, fibronectin, MG-63 osteoblasts, protein adsorption.

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Authors: Anastasia K. Eleftheriadou, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris

Abstract:

The current paper presents an extensive bottom-up framework for assessing building sector-specific vulnerability to climate change: energy supply and demand. The research focuses on the application of downscaled seasonal models for estimating energy performance of buildings in Greece. The ARW-WRF model has been set-up and suitably parameterized to produce downscaled climatological fields for Greece, forced by the output of the CFSv2 model. The outer domain, D01/Europe, included 345 x 345 cells of horizontal resolution 20 x 20 km2 and the inner domain, D02/Greece, comprised 180 x 180 cells of 5 x 5 km2 horizontal resolution. The model run has been setup for a period with a forecast horizon of 6 months, storing outputs on a six hourly basis.

Keywords: Urban environment, vulnerability, climate change, energy performance, seasonal forecast models.

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Authors: Zia Abbas, Giuseppe Scotti, Mauro Olivieri

Abstract:

Current mode circuits like current conveyors are getting significant attention in current analog ICs design due to their higher band-width, greater linearity, larger dynamic range, simpler circuitry, lower power consumption and less chip area. The second generation current controlled conveyor (CCCII) has the advantage of electronic adjustability over the CCII i.e. in CCCII; adjustment of the X-terminal intrinsic resistance via a bias current is possible. The presented approach is based on the CMOS implementation of second generation positive (CCCII+), negative (CCCII-) and dual Output Current Controlled Conveyor (DOCCCII) and its application as Universal filter. All the circuits have been designed and simulated using 65nm CMOS technology model parameters on Cadence Virtuoso / Spectre using 1V supply voltage. Various simulations have been carried out to verify the linearity between output and input ports, range of operation frequency, etc. The outcomes show good agreement between expected and experimental results.

Keywords: CCCII+, CCCII-, DOCCCII, Electronic tunability, Universal filter

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: Wind fragility, glass window, high rise apartment, Monte Carlo Simulation method.

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Authors: Pavel Vazan, Pavol Tanuska, Michal Kebisek

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The paper gives the pilot results of the project that is oriented on the use of data mining techniques and knowledge discoveries from production systems through them. They have been used in the management of these systems. The simulation models of manufacturing systems have been developed to obtain the necessary data about production. The authors have developed the way of storing data obtained from the simulation models in the data warehouse. Data mining model has been created by using specific methods and selected techniques for defined problems of production system management. The new knowledge has been applied to production management system. Gained knowledge has been tested on simulation models of the production system. An important benefit of the project has been proposal of the new methodology. This methodology is focused on data mining from the databases that store operational data about the production process.

Keywords: data mining, data warehousing, management of production system, simulation

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Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

Abstract:

This paper presents a new study on the applications of optimization and regression analysis techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of four-step helical gearboxes for getting minimal gearbox length. In the paper, basing on the moment equilibrium condition of a mechanic system including four gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for determination of the partial ratios of the gearboxes are proposed. In particular, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are proposed by using regression analysis. Using these models, the determination of the partial ratios is accurate and simple.

Keywords: Gearbox design; optimal design; helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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Authors: Jonathan Bohn, Jorge Rebaza, Kaitlin Speer

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The dynamics of a predator-prey model with continuous threshold policy harvesting functions on the prey is studied. Theoretical and numerical methods are used to investigate boundedness of solutions, existence of bionomic equilibria, and the stability properties of coexistence equilibrium points and periodic orbits. Several bifurcations as well as some heteroclinic orbits are computed.

Keywords: Predator-prey models, threshold harvesting, dynamicalsystems

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control and PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act). Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models include COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them related to the mechanistic and reductionist principles over which those models are built. As systems theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of organizations, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in some organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, Maturity Model, Systems Theory, Viable System Model.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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