Search results for: Single Input Single Output

Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: I. Hosni, L. Bennaceur Farah, N. Saber, R Bennaceur

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Soil moisture content is a key variable in many environmental sciences. Even though it represents a small proportion of the liquid freshwater on Earth, it modulates interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather. Accurate modeling of the above processes depends on the ability to provide a proper spatial characterization of soil moisture. The measurement of soil moisture content allows assessment of soil water resources in the field of hydrology and agronomy. The second parameter in interaction with the radar signal is the geometric structure of the soil. Most traditional electromagnetic models consider natural surfaces as single scale zero mean stationary Gaussian random processes. Roughness behavior is characterized by statistical parameters like the Root Mean Square (RMS) height and the correlation length. Then, the main problem is that the agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical values is usually poor due to the large variability of the correlation function, and as a consequence, backscattering models have often failed to predict correctly backscattering. In this study, surfaces are considered as band-limited fractal random processes corresponding to a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian process each one having a spatial scale. Multiscale roughness is characterized by two parameters, the first one is proportional to the RMS height, and the other one is related to the fractal dimension. Soil moisture is related to the complex dielectric constant. This multiscale description has been adapted to two-dimensional profiles using the bi-dimensional wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe more correctly natural surfaces. We characterize the soil surfaces and sub-surfaces by a three layers geo-electrical model. The upper layer is described by its dielectric constant, thickness, a multiscale bi-dimensional surface roughness model by using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm, and volume scattering parameters. The lower layer is divided into three fictive layers separated by an assumed plane interface. These three layers were modeled by an effective medium characterized by an apparent effective dielectric constant taking into account the presence of air pockets in the soil. We have adopted the 2D multiscale three layers small perturbations model including, firstly air pockets in the soil sub-structure, and then a vegetable canopy in the soil surface structure, that is to simulate the radar backscattering. A sensitivity analysis of backscattering coefficient dependence on multiscale roughness and new soil moisture has been performed. Later, we proposed to change the dielectric constant of the multilayer medium because it takes into account the different moisture values of each layer in the soil. A sensitivity analysis of the backscattering coefficient, including the air pockets in the volume structure with respect to the multiscale roughness parameters and the apparent dielectric constant, was carried out. Finally, we proposed to study the behavior of the backscattering coefficient of the radar on a soil having a vegetable layer in its surface structure.

Keywords: Multiscale, bi-dimensional, wavelets, SPM, backscattering, multilayer, air pockets, vegetable.

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Authors: Mohammad Syuhaimi Ab-Rahman, Boon Chuan Ng, Norshilawati Mohamad Ibrahim, Sahbudin Shaari

Abstract:

This paper describes the development of a 16-ports optical code division multiple access (OCDMA) encoder prototype based on Arrayed Waveguide Grating (AWG) and optical switches. It is potentially to provide a high security for data transmission due to all data will be transmitted in binary code form. The output signals from AWG are coded with a binary code that given to an optical switch before it signal modulate with the carrier and transmitted to the receiver. The 16-ports encoder used 16 double pole double throw (DPDT) toggle switches to control the polarization of voltage source from +5 V to -5 V for 16 optical switches. When +5 V is given, the optical switch will give code '1' and vice versa. The experimental results showed the insertion loss, crosstalk, uniformity, and optical signal-noise-ratio (OSNR) for the developed prototype are <12 dB, 9.77 dB, <1.63dB, and ≥20dB.

Keywords: AWG, encoder, OCDMA, optical switch.

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Authors: Daniel Pereiro, Felix Martinez, Iker Urresti, Ana Gomez Gonzalez

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Today modern simulations solutions in the wind turbine industry have achieved a high degree of complexity and detail in result. Limitations exist when it is time to validate model results against measurements. Regarding Model validation it is of special interest to identify mode frequencies and to differentiate them from the different excitations. A wind turbine is a complex device and measurements regarding any part of the assembly show a lot of noise. Input excitations are difficult or even impossible to measure due to the stochastic nature of the environment. Traditional techniques for frequency analysis or features extraction are widely used to analyze wind turbine sensor signals, but have several limitations specially attending to non stationary signals (Events). A new technique based on autoregresive analysis techniques is introduced here for a specific application, a comparison and examples related to different events in the wind turbine operations are presented.

Keywords: Wind turbine, signal processing, mode extraction.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: Swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, MIKE21, sediment.

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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Authors: W. Srisang, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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This study examined a habitat-suitability assessment method namely the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). A virtual species was created and then dispatched in a geographic information system model of a real landscape in three historic scenarios: (1) spreading, (2) equilibrium, and (3) overabundance. In each scenario, the virtual species was sampled and these simulated data sets were used as inputs for the ENFA to reconstruct the habitat suitability model. The 'equilibrium' scenario gives the highest quantity and quality among three scenarios. ENFA was sensitive to the distribution scenarios but not sensitive to sample sizes. The use of a virtual species proved to be a very efficient method, allowing one to fully control the quality of the input data as well as to accurately evaluate the predictive power of the analyses.

Keywords: Habitat-Suitability Models, Ecological niche factoranalysis, Climatic factors, Geographic information system.

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Authors: C. Silveira, A. Ascenso, J. Ferreira, A. I. Miranda, P. Tuccella, G. Curci

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Poor air quality is one of the main environmental causes of premature deaths worldwide, and mainly in cities, where the majority of the population lives. It is a consequence of successive land cover (LC) and use changes, as a result of the intensification of human activities. Knowing these landscape modifications in a comprehensive spatiotemporal dimension is, therefore, essential for understanding variations in air pollutant concentrations. In this sense, the use of air quality models is very useful to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect the dispersion and reaction of chemical species into the atmosphere. However, the modelling performance should always be evaluated since the resolution of the input datasets largely dictates the reliability of the air quality outcomes. Among these data, the updated LC is an important parameter to be considered in atmospheric models, since it takes into account the Earth’s surface changes due to natural and anthropic actions, and regulates the exchanges of fluxes (emissions, heat, moisture, etc.) between the soil and the air. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), when different LC classifications are used as an input. The influence of two LC classifications was tested: i) the 24-classes USGS (United States Geological Survey) LC database included by default in the model, and the ii) CLC (Corine Land Cover) and specific high-resolution LC data for Portugal, reclassified according to the new USGS nomenclature (33-classes). Two distinct WRF-Chem simulations were carried out to assess the influence of the LC on air quality over Europe and Portugal, as a case study, for the year 2015, using the nesting technique over three simulation domains (25 km², 5 km² and 1 km² horizontal resolution). Based on the 33-classes LC approach, particular emphasis was attributed to Portugal, given the detail and higher LC spatial resolution (100 m x 100 m) than the CLC data (5000 m x 5000 m). As regards to the air quality, only the LC impacts on tropospheric ozone concentrations were evaluated, because ozone pollution episodes typically occur in Portugal, in particular during the spring/summer, and there are few research works relating to this pollutant with LC changes. The WRF-Chem results were validated by season and station typology using background measurements from the Portuguese air quality monitoring network. As expected, a better model performance was achieved in rural stations: moderate correlation (0.4 – 0.7), BIAS (10 – 21µg.m^-3) and RMSE (20 – 30 µg.m^-3), and where higher average ozone concentrations were estimated. Comparing both simulations, small differences grounded on the Leaf Area Index and air temperature values were found, although the high-resolution LC approach shows a slight enhancement in the model evaluation. This highlights the role of the LC on the exchange of atmospheric fluxes, and stresses the need to consider a high-resolution LC characterization combined with other detailed model inputs, such as the emission inventory, to improve air quality assessment.

Keywords: Land cover, tropospheric ozone, WRF-Chem, air quality assessment.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Sonia Manhas, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Vinay Chopra, Nirvair Neeru

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The cost of developing the software from scratch can be saved by identifying and extracting the reusable components from already developed and existing software systems or legacy systems [6]. But the issue of how to identify reusable components from existing systems has remained relatively unexplored. We have used metric based approach for characterizing a software module. In this present work, the metrics McCabe-s Cyclometric Complexity Measure for Complexity measurement, Regularity Metric, Halstead Software Science Indicator for Volume indication, Reuse Frequency metric and Coupling Metric values of the software component are used as input attributes to the different types of Neural Network system and reusability of the software component is calculated. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).

Keywords: Software reusability, Neural Networks, MAE, RMSE, Accuracy.

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Authors: Harish K. Arya, Kulwant Singh, R. K. Saxena

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The heat flow in weldment changes its nature from 2D to 3D with the increase in plate thickness. For welding of thicker plates the heat loss in thickness direction increases the cooling rate of plate. Since the cooling rate changes, the various bead parameters like bead penetration, bead height and bead width also got affected by it. The present study incorporates the effect of variable plate thickness on penetration and bead width. The penetration reduces with increase in plate thickness due to heat loss in thickness direction for same heat input, while bead width increases for thicker plate due to faster cooling.

Keywords: Submerged arc welding, plate thickness, bead geometry, cooling rate.

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Authors: Ben Hamed M., Sbita L

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This paper presents a new method for the implementation of a direct rotor flux control (DRFOC) of induction motor (IM) drives. It is based on the rotor flux components regulation. The d and q axis rotor flux components feed proportional integral (PI) controllers. The outputs of which are the target stator voltages (vdsref and vqsref). While, the synchronous speed is depicted at the output of rotor speed controller. In order to accomplish variable speed operation, conventional PI like controller is commonly used. These controllers provide limited good performances over a wide range of operations even under ideal field oriented conditions. An alternate approach is to use the so called fuzzy logic controller. The overall investigated system is implemented using dSpace system based on digital signal processor (DSP). Simulation and experimental results have been presented for a one kw IM drives to confirm the validity of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: DRFOC, fuzzy logic, variable speed drives, control, IM and real time.

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Authors: Mawahib Gafare Abdalrahman Ahmed, Abdallah Belal Adam, John Ojur Dennis

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Air bubbles have been detected in human circulation of end-stage renal disease patients who are treated by hemodialysis. The consequence of air embolism, air bubbles, is under recognized and usually overlooked in daily practice. This paper shows results of a capacitor based detection method that capable of detecting the presence of air bubbles in the blood stream in different frequencies. The method is based on a parallel plates capacitor made of platinum with an area of 1.5 cm2 and a distance between the two plates is 1cm. The dielectric material used in this capacitor is Dextran70 solution which mimics blood rheology. Simulations were carried out using RC circuit at two frequencies 30Hz and 3 kHz and results compared with experiments and theory. It is observed that by injecting air bubbles of different diameters into the device, there were significant changes in the capacitance of the capacitor. Furthermore, it is observed that the output voltage from the circuit increased with increasing air bubble diameter. These results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in improving air bubble detection in Hemodialysis.

Keywords: Air bubbles, Hemodialysis, Capacitor, Dextran70, Air bubbles diameters.

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Authors: Imran Sarwar Bajwa

Abstract:

Internet is one of the major sources of information for the person belonging to almost all the fields of life. Major language that is used to publish information on internet is language. This thing becomes a problem in a country like Pakistan, where Urdu is the national language. Only 10% of Pakistan mass can understand English. The reason is millions of people are deprived of precious information available on internet. This paper presents a system for translation from English to Urdu. A module LESSA is used that uses a rule based algorithm to read the input text in English language, understand it and translate it into Urdu language. The designed approach was further incorporated to translate the complete website from English language o Urdu language. An option appears in the browser to translate the webpage in a new window. The designed system will help the millions of users of internet to get benefit of the internet and approach the latest information and knowledge posted daily on internet.

Keywords: Natural Language Translation, Text Understanding, Knowledge extraction, Text Processing

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Authors: Lv Meibo, Naqvi Najam Abbas, Hina Arshad, Li YanJun

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This research contribution is drafted to present the orbit design, orbit propagator and geomagnetic field estimator for the nanosatellites specifically for the upcoming CUBESAT, ICUBE-1 of the Institute of Space Technology (IST), Islamabad, Pakistan. The ICUBE mission is designed for the low earth orbit at the approximate height of 700KM. The presented research endeavor designs the Keplarian elements for ICUBE-1 orbit while incorporating the mission requirements and propagates the orbit using J2 perturbations, The attitude determination system of the ICUBE-1 consists of attitude determination sensors like magnetometer and sun sensor. The Geomagnetic field estimator is developed according to the model of International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) for comparing the magnetic field measurements by the magnetometer for attitude determination. The output of the propagator namely the Keplarians position and velocity vectors and the magnetic field vectors are compared and verified with the same scenario generated in the  Satellite Tool Kit (STK).

Keywords: CUBESAT, Geomagnetic Field, ICUBE-1, Orbit Propagator, Satellite.

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Authors: Y. Parvizi, M. Gorji, M.H. Mahdian, M. Omid

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Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in soil fertility, hydrology, contaminants control and acts as a sink or source of terrestrial carbon content that can affect the concentration of atmospheric CO2. SOC supports the sustainability and quality of ecosystems, especially in semi-arid region. This study was conducted to determine relative importance of 13 different exploratory climatic, soil and geometric factors on the SOC contents in one of the semiarid watershed zones in Iran. Two methods canonical discriminate analysis (CDA) and feed-forward back propagation neural networks were used to predict SOC. Stepwise regression and sensitivity analysis were performed to identify relative importance of exploratory variables. Results from sensitivity analysis showed that 7-2-1 neural networks and 5 inputs in CDA models output have highest predictive ability that explains %70 and %65 of SOC variability. Since neural network models outperformed CDA model, it should be preferred for estimating SOC.

Keywords: Soil organic carbon, modeling, neural networks, CDA.

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Authors: G. Kalpanadevi, S. Ravimaran, M. Shanmugapriya

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In this paper, a modified Wilkinson power divider for GSM application is presented. The quarter–wavelength microstrip lines in the conventional Wilkinson power divider (WPD) are replaced by one-eighth wavelength transmission line. Wilkinson power divider is designed using λ/4 and λ/8 transmission line. It has the operating frequency of 915 MHz which is used in the GSM standard. The proposed Wilkinson Power Divider is designed using the simulation tool Advanced Design System. The results of λ/8 transmission line are very close to the results of λ/4 transmission line. The isolation loss of λ/8 transmission line is improved by introducing a capacitor between the output ports. The proposed Wilkinson power divider has the best return loss of greater than -10 dB and isolation loss of -15.25 dB. The λ/8 transmission line Wilkinson power divider has the reduced size of 53.9 percentages than λ/4 transmission line WPD. The proposed design has simple structure, better isolation loss and good insertion loss.

Keywords: Wilkinson Power Divider, Quarter wave line, one eighth wave transmission line, microstrip line.

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Authors: Kechida Ahmed, Drai Redouane, Khelil Mohamed

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In this paper we present a new approach to detecting a flaw in T.O.F.D (Time Of Flight Diffraction) type ultrasonic image based on texture features. Texture is one of the most important features used in recognizing patterns in an image. The paper describes texture features based on 2D Gabor functions, i.e., Gaussian shaped band-pass filters, with dyadic treatment of the radial spatial frequency range and multiple orientations, which represent an appropriate choice for tasks requiring simultaneous measurement in both space and frequency domains. The most relevant features are used as input data on a Fuzzy c-mean clustering classifier. The classes that exist are only two: 'defects' or 'no defects'. The proposed approach is tested on the T.O.F.D image achieved at the laboratory and on the industrial field.

Keywords: 2D Gabor Functions, flaw detection, fuzzy c-mean clustering, non destructive testing, texture analysis, T.O.F.D Image (Time of Flight Diffraction).

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Authors: Nermin Sökmen

Abstract:

An effort estimation model is needed for softwareintensive projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or some combination of the two, as well as high level software solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a system development effort estimation model which takes functional complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.

Keywords: Functional complexity, functional decomposition, development effort, technical difficulty, design team capability, regression analysis.

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Authors: Iveta Řepková

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to estimate the efficiency of the Slovak commercial banks employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) window analysis approach during the period 2003-2012. The research is based on unbalanced panel data of the Slovak commercial banks. Undesirable output was included into analysis of banking efficiency. It was found that most efficient banks were Postovabanka, UniCredit Bank and Istrobanka in CCR model and the most efficient banks were Slovenskasporitelna, Istrobanka and UniCredit Bank in BCC model. On contrary, the lowest efficient banks were found Privatbanka and CitiBank. We found that the largest banks in the Slovak banking market were lower efficient than medium-size and small banks. Results of the paper is that during the period 2003-2008 the average efficiency was increasing and then during the period 2010-2011 the average efficiency decreased as a result of financial crisis.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, efficiency, Slovak banking sector, window analysis.

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Authors: S. Mehran, S. Rouhi, F.Rouzbahani, E. Haghgoo

Abstract:

In this paper dynamics of a vapour bubble generated due to a local energy input inside a vertical rigid cylinder and in the absence of buoyancy forces is investigated. Different ratios of the diameter of the rigid cylinder to the maximum radius of the bubble are considered. The Boundary Integral Equation Method is employed for numerical simulation of the problem. Results show that during the collapse phase of the bubble inside a vertical rigid cylinder, two liquid micro jets are developed on the top and bottom sides of the vapour bubble and are directed inward. Results also show that existence of a deposit rib inside the vertical rigid cylinder slightly increases the life time of the bubble. It is found that by increasing the ratio of the cylinder diameter to the maximum radius of the bubble, the rate of the growth and collapse phases of the bubble increases and the life time of the bubble decreases.

Keywords: Vapour bubble, Vertical rigid cylinder, Boundaryelement method.

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Authors: Petr V. Vasilev, Eduard V. Volkov, Alexej N. Godok, Alexej A, Grischschuk, Vitalij A. Rybalchenko

Abstract:

Laser Doppler flowmetry is a modern method of noninvasive microcirculation investigation. The aim of our study was to use this method in the examination of patients with secondary lymphedema of the lower extremities and obliterating atherosclerosis of lower extremities. In the analysis of the amplitude-frequency spectrum of secondary lymphedema patients we have identified remarkable changes. To describe the changes we used a special amplitude rate. In both of patients groups this rate was significally (p<0.05) different with the control group. So the marker phenomena of the amplitude-frequency spectrum of the LDF signal were identified. It is suggested that there is a limfodynamics contribution to the formation of the output signal of laser Doppler flowmetry. These data have fundamental meaning and are interesting for practical medicine, as they give an opportunity to further developments for the use of laser Doppler flowmetry in the diagnostics and monitoring the effectiveness of the treatment.

Keywords: laser Doppler flowmetry, secondary lymphedema of the lower extremities, obliterating atherosclerosis, non-invasive diagnostics.

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Authors: J. Satonsaowapak, M. Krapeedang, R. Oonsivilai, A. Oonsivilai

Abstract:

The utilize of renewable energy sources becomes more crucial and fascinatingly, wider application of renewable energy devices at domestic, commercial and industrial levels is not only affect to stronger awareness but also significantly installed capacities. Moreover, biomass principally is in form of woods and converts to be energy for using by humans for a long time. Gasification is a process of conversion of solid carbonaceous fuel into combustible gas by partial combustion. Many gasified models have various operating conditions because the parameters kept in each model are differentiated. This study applied the experimental data including three inputs variables including biomass consumption; temperature at combustion zone and ash discharge rate and gas flow rate as only one output variable. In this paper, response surface methods were applied for identification of the gasified system equation suitable for experimental data. The result showed that linear model gave superlative results.

Keywords: Gasified System, Identification, Response SurfaceMethod

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Authors: N. Ravi Kumar, R. Kamalakannan

Abstract:

The inherent nature of normal boost converter has more voltage stress across the power electronics switch and ripple. The presented formation of the front end rectifier stage for a photovoltaic (PV) organization is mainly used to give the supply. Further increasing of the solar efficiency is achieved by connecting the zero voltage soft switching boost converter. The zero voltage boost converter is used to convert the low level DC voltage to high level DC voltage. The inherent nature of zero voltage switching boost converter is used to shrink the voltage tension across the power electronics switch and ripple. The input stage allows the determined power point tracking to be used to extract supreme power from the sun when it is available. The hardware setup was implemented by using PIC Micro controller (16F877A).

Keywords: Boost converter, duty cycle, hard switching, MOSFET, maximum power point tracking, photovoltaic, soft switching, zero voltage switching.

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Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: E. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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Authors: S. Moghaddaszadeh-Ahrabi, S. Farajnia, Gh. Rahimi-Mianji, A. Nejati-Javaremi

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest toward the use of bovine genotyped embryos for commercial embryo transfer programs. Biopsy of a few cells in morulla stage is essential for preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). Low amount of DNA have limited performing the several molecular analyses within PGD analyses. Whole genome amplification (WGA) promises to eliminate this problem. We evaluated the possibility and performance of an improved primer extension preamplification (I-PEP) method with a range of starting bovine genomic DNA from 1-8 cells into the WGA reaction. We optimized a short and simple I-PEP (ssI-PEP) procedure (~3h). This optimized WGA method was assessed by 6 loci specific polymerase chain reactions (PCRs), included restriction fragments length polymorphism (RFLP). Optimized WGA procedure possesses enough sensitivity for molecular genetic analyses through the few input cells. This is a new era for generating characterized bovine embryos in preimplantation stage.

Keywords: Whole genome amplification (WGA), Genotyping, Bovine, Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)

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Authors: T. N. Janakiraman, P. V. S. S. R. Chandra Mouli

Abstract:

A color image edge detection algorithm is proposed in this paper using Pseudo-complement and matrix rotation operations. First, pseudo-complement method is applied on the image for each channel. Then, matrix operations are applied on the output image of the first stage. Dominant pixels are obtained by image differencing between the pseudo-complement image and the matrix operated image. Median filtering is carried out to smoothen the image thereby removing the isolated pixels. Finally, the dominant or core pixels occurring in at least two channels are selected. On plotting the selected edge pixels, the final edge map of the given color image is obtained. The algorithm is also tested in HSV and YCbCr color spaces. Experimental results on both synthetic and real world images show that the accuracy of the proposed method is comparable to other color edge detectors. All the proposed procedures can be applied to any image domain and runs in polynomial time.

Keywords: Color edge detection, dominant pixels, matrixrotation/shift operations, pseudo-complement.

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Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

Abstract:

In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, Water Temperature, and Conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen, Water quality, predication DO, Support Vector Machine.

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