Search results for: Cyber and information security
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4642

Search results for: Cyber and information security

1852 Nonverbal Expression of Emotions in Conflict Escalation

Authors: Arshaluys Mushkambaryan

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore how the emotions at the moment of conflict escalation are expressed nonverbally and how it can be detected by the parties involved in the conflicting situation. The study consists of two parts, in the first part it starts with the definition of "conflict" and "nonverbal communication". Further it includes the analysis of emotions and types of emotions, which may bring to the conflict escalation. Four types of emotions and emotion constructs are analyzed, particularly fear, anger, guilt and frustration. The second part of the study analyses the general role of nonverbal behavior in interaction and communication, which information it may give during communication to the person, who sends or receives those signals. The study finishes with the analysis of the nonverbal expression of analyzed emotions and on how it can be used during interaction.

Keywords: Conflict Escalation, Emotions, Nonverbal communication,

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1851 An Analysis of Activity-Based Costing in a Manufacturing System

Authors: Derya Eren Akyol, Gonca Tuncel, G. Mirac Bayhan

Abstract:

Activity-Based Costing (ABC) represents an alternative paradigm to traditional cost accounting system and it often provides more accurate cost information for decision making such as product pricing, product mix, and make-orbuy decisions. ABC models the causal relationships between products and the resources used in their production and traces the cost of products according to the activities through the use of appropriate cost drivers. In this paper, the implementation of the ABC in a manufacturing system is analyzed and a comparison with the traditional cost based system in terms of the effects on the product costs are carried out to highlight the difference between two costing methodologies. By using this methodology, a valuable insight into the factors that cause the cost is provided, helping to better manage the activities of the company.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, manufacturing systems, product costs, traditional costing.

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1850 Towards a Competence Management Approach Based on Continuous Improvement

Authors: N. Sefiani, C. Fikri Benbrahim, A. Boumane, K. Reklaoui

Abstract:

Nowadays, the reflection on competence management is the basic for new competitive strategies. It is considered as the core of the problems of the global supply chain. It interact a variety of actors: information, physical and activities flows, etc. Even though competence management is seen as the key factor for any business success, the existing approaches demonstrate the deficiencies and limitations of the competence concept. This research has two objectives: The first is to make a contribution by focusing on the development of a competence approach, based on continuous improvement. It allows the enterprise to spot key competencies, mobilize them in order to serve its strategic objectives and to develop future competencies. The second is to propose a method to evaluate the Level of Collective Competence. The approach was confirmed through an application carried out at an automotive company.

Keywords: Competencies, approach, continuous improvement, collective competence level, performance indicator.

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1849 An Evaluation of the Opportunities and Challenges of Wi-Fi Adoption in Malaysian Institutions

Authors: Subrahmanyam Kodukula, Nurbiya Maimaiti

Abstract:

There have been many variations of technologies that helped educators in teaching & learning. From the past research it is evident that Information Technology significantly increases student participation and interactivity in the classrooms. This research started with a aim to find whether adoption of Wi-Fi environment by Malaysian Higher Educational Institutions (HEI) can benefit students and staff equally. The study was carried out in HEI-s of Klang Valley, Malaysia and the data is gathered through paper based surveys. A sample size of 237 units were randomly selected from 5 higher educational institutions in the Klang Valley using the Stratified Random sampling method and from the analysis of the data, it was found that the implementation of wireless technologies in HEIs have created lot of opportunities and also challenges.

Keywords: Wired Technologies, Wireless Classroom, HEI, Dense User Environment.

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1848 Data Analysis Techniques for Predictive Maintenance on Fleet of Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Authors: Antonis Sideris, Elias Chlis Kalogeropoulos, Konstantia Moirogiorgou

Abstract:

The present study proposes a methodology for the efficient daily management of fleet vehicles and construction machinery. The application covers the area of remote monitoring of heavy-duty vehicles operation parameters, where specific sensor data are stored and examined in order to provide information about the vehicle’s health. The vehicle diagnostics allow the user to inspect whether maintenance tasks need to be performed before a fault occurs. A properly designed machine learning model is proposed for the detection of two different types of faults through classification. Cross validation is used and the accuracy of the trained model is checked with the confusion matrix.

Keywords: Fault detection, feature selection, machine learning, predictive maintenance.

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1847 Analysis of DNA Microarray Data using Association Rules: A Selective Study

Authors: M. Anandhavalli Gauthaman

Abstract:

DNA microarrays allow the measurement of expression levels for a large number of genes, perhaps all genes of an organism, within a number of different experimental samples. It is very much important to extract biologically meaningful information from this huge amount of expression data to know the current state of the cell because most cellular processes are regulated by changes in gene expression. Association rule mining techniques are helpful to find association relationship between genes. Numerous association rule mining algorithms have been developed to analyze and associate this huge amount of gene expression data. This paper focuses on some of the popular association rule mining algorithms developed to analyze gene expression data.

Keywords: DNA microarray, gene expression, association rule mining.

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1846 A Fiber Optic Interferometric Sensor for Dynamic Measurement

Authors: N. Sathitanon, S. Pullteap

Abstract:

An optical fiber Fabry-Perot interferometer (FFPI) is proposed and demonstrated for dynamic measurements in a mechanical vibrating target. A polishing metal with a low reflectance value adhered to a mechanical vibrator was excited via a function generator at various excitation frequencies. Output interference fringes were generated by modulating the reference and sensing signal at the output arm. A fringe-counting technique was used for interpreting the displacement information on the dedicated computer. The fiber interferometer has been found the capability of the displacement measurements of 1.28 μm – 96.01 μm. A commercial displacement sensor was employed as a reference sensor for investigating the measurement errors from the fiber sensor. A maximum percentage measurement error of approximately 1.59 % was obtained.

Keywords: Optical fiber sensors, dynamic displacement, fringe counting, reference displacement sensor.

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1845 The Benefits of IFRS Adoption – A Survey of Chief Financial Officers of Romanian Listed Companies

Authors: Lucian Munteanu

Abstract:

The move towards internationalization of accounting encountered a great boost, when in 2002 EU delegated the IASB to provide the accounting standards to be applied inside its frontiers. Among the incentives of the standardization of accounting on the international level, is the reduction of the cost of capital. Romania made the move towards IFRS before EU, when the country was not yet a member of it. Even if this made Romania a special case, it was scarcely approached. The leak of real data is usually the reason for avoiding. The novelty of this paper is that it offers an insight from the reality of Romanian companies and their view regarding the IFRS. The paper is based on a survey that the authors made among the companies listed on the first two tiers of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE), which are basically, the most important companies in the country.

Keywords: Cost of capital, IFRS, information asymmetry, transparency.

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1844 Methodology for Obtaining Static Alignment Model

Authors: Lely A. Luengas, Pedro R. Vizcaya, Giovanni Sánchez

Abstract:

In this paper, a methodology is presented to obtain the Static Alignment Model for any transtibial amputee person. The proposed methodology starts from experimental data collected on the Hospital Militar Central, Bogotá, Colombia. The effects of transtibial prosthesis malalignment on amputees were measured in terms of joint angles, center of pressure (COP) and weight distribution. Some statistical tools are used to obtain the model parameters. Mathematical predictive models of prosthetic alignment were created. The proposed models are validated in amputees and finding promising results for the prosthesis Static Alignment. Static alignment process is unique to each subject; nevertheless the proposed methodology can be used in each transtibial amputee.

Keywords: Information theory, prediction model, prosthetic alignment, transtibial prosthesis.

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1843 An Improved QRS Complex Detection for Online Medical Diagnosis

Authors: I. L. Ahmad, M. Mohamed, N. A. Ab. Ghani

Abstract:

This paper presents the work of signal discrimination specifically for Electrocardiogram (ECG) waveform. ECG signal is comprised of P, QRS, and T waves in each normal heart beat to describe the pattern of heart rhythms corresponds to a specific individual. Further medical diagnosis could be done to determine any heart related disease using ECG information. The emphasis on QRS Complex classification is further discussed to illustrate the importance of it. Pan-Tompkins Algorithm, a widely known technique has been adapted to realize the QRS Complex classification process. There are eight steps involved namely sampling, normalization, low pass filter, high pass filter (build a band pass filter), derivation, squaring, averaging and lastly is the QRS detection. The simulation results obtained is represented in a Graphical User Interface (GUI) developed using MATLAB.

Keywords: ECG, Pan Tompkins Algorithm, QRS Complex, Simulation

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1842 Transonic Flutter Analysis Using Euler Equation and Reduced Order Modeling Technique

Authors: D. H. Kim, Y. H. Kim, T. Kim

Abstract:

A new method identifies coupled fluid-structure system with a reduced set of state variables is presented. Assuming that the structural model is known a priori either from an analysis or a test and using linear transformations between structural and aeroelastic states, it is possible to deduce aerodynamic information from sampled time histories of the aeroelastic system. More specifically given a finite set of structural modes the method extracts generalized aerodynamic force matrix corresponding to these mode shapes. Once the aerodynamic forces are known, an aeroelastic reduced-order model can be constructed in discrete-time, state-space format by coupling the structural model and the aerodynamic system. The resulting reduced-order model is suitable for constant Mach, varying density analysis.

Keywords: ROM (Reduced-Order Model), aero elasticity, AGARD 445.6 wing.

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1841 Principal Component Analysis using Singular Value Decomposition of Microarray Data

Authors: Dong Hoon Lim

Abstract:

A series of microarray experiments produces observations of differential expression for thousands of genes across multiple conditions. Principal component analysis(PCA) has been widely used in multivariate data analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the data in order to simplify subsequent analysis and allow for summarization of the data in a parsimonious manner. PCA, which can be implemented via a singular value decomposition(SVD), is useful for analysis of microarray data. For application of PCA using SVD we use the DNA microarray data for the small round blue cell tumors(SRBCT) of childhood by Khan et al.(2001). To decide the number of components which account for sufficient amount of information we draw scree plot. Biplot, a graphic display associated with PCA, reveals important features that exhibit relationship between variables and also the relationship of variables with observations.

Keywords: Principal component analysis, singular value decomposition, microarray data, SRBCT

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1840 Predicting and Mitigating Dredging DispersionImpact: A Case of Phuket Port, Thailand

Authors: Cherdvong Saengsupavanich

Abstract:

Dredging activities inevitably cause sediment dispersion. In certain locations, where there are important ecological areas such as mangroves or coral reefs, carefully planning the dredging can significantly reduce negative impacts. This article utilizes the dredging at Phuket port, Thailand, as a case study to demonstrate how computer simulations can be helpful to protect existing coral reefs. A software package named MIKE21 was applied. Necessary information required by the simulations was gathered. After calibrating and verifying the model, various dredging scenario were simulated to predict spoil movement. The simulation results were used as guidance to setting up an environmental measure. Finally, the recommendation to dredge during flood tide with silt curtains installed was made.

Keywords: Coastal simulation, Dredging, Environmentalprotection, Port. Coastal engineering, Thailand

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1839 Online Metacognitive Reading Strategies Use by Postgraduate Libyan EFL Students

Authors: Najwa Alsayed Omar

Abstract:

With the increasing popularity of the Internet, online reading has become an essential source for EFL readers. Using strategies to comprehend information on online reading texts play a crucial role in students’ academic success. Metacognitive reading strategies are effective factors that enhance EFL learners reading comprehension. This study aimed at exploring the use of online metacognitive reading strategies by postgraduate Libyan EFL students. Quantitative data was collected using the Survey of Online Reading Strategies (OSORS). The findings revealed that the participants were moderate users of metacognitive online reading strategies. Problem solving strategies were the most frequently reported used strategies, while support reading strategies were the least. The five most and least frequently reported strategies were identified. Based on the findings, some future research recommendations were presented.

Keywords: Metacognitive strategies, Online reading, Online reading strategies, Postgraduate students.

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1838 Evolutionary Feature Selection for Text Documents using the SVM

Authors: Daniel I. Morariu, Lucian N. Vintan, Volker Tresp

Abstract:

Text categorization is the problem of classifying text documents into a set of predefined classes. After a preprocessing step, the documents are typically represented as large sparse vectors. When training classifiers on large collections of documents, both the time and memory restrictions can be quite prohibitive. This justifies the application of feature selection methods to reduce the dimensionality of the document-representation vector. In this paper, we present three feature selection methods: Information Gain, Support Vector Machine feature selection called (SVM_FS) and Genetic Algorithm with SVM (called GA_SVM). We show that the best results were obtained with GA_SVM method for a relatively small dimension of the feature vector.

Keywords: Feature Selection, Learning with Kernels, Support Vector Machine, Genetic Algorithm, and Classification.

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1837 Development of Subjective Measures of Interestingness: From Unexpectedness to Shocking

Authors: Eiad Yafi, M. A. Alam, Ranjit Biswas

Abstract:

Knowledge Discovery of Databases (KDD) is the process of extracting previously unknown but useful and significant information from large massive volume of databases. Data Mining is a stage in the entire process of KDD which applies an algorithm to extract interesting patterns. Usually, such algorithms generate huge volume of patterns. These patterns have to be evaluated by using interestingness measures to reflect the user requirements. Interestingness is defined in different ways, (i) Objective measures (ii) Subjective measures. Objective measures such as support and confidence extract meaningful patterns based on the structure of the patterns, while subjective measures such as unexpectedness and novelty reflect the user perspective. In this report, we try to brief the more widely spread and successful subjective measures and propose a new subjective measure of interestingness, i.e. shocking.

Keywords: Shocking rules (SHR).

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1836 Morpho-Anatomical and Ecological Studies on Endemic of Fritillaria oranensis Pomel. from the Mounts of Tessala (Western Algeria)

Authors: A. Bouzid, R. Chadli

Abstract:

Fritillaria oranensis (Liliaceae) was described in 1874 by pomel from Algeria. Plant samples have been collected from the mount of Tessala (Sidi-Bel-Abbes). The morphological features of various organs of the plant are described in detail. In the morphological part of the study, features of various organs of the plants such as stem and leaf were determined and illustrated. Ecological studies provide information about the physical and chemical structure of soil types in Tessala Mountain. The aim of this original investigation is to put forth ecological and anatomical features of these species for the first time, but at the same time given detailed account of the morphological characteristics of the stem and leaf of Fritillaria oranensis.

Keywords: Anatomy, ecology, Liliaceae, morphology, Fritillaria oranensis Pomel.

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1835 Feature Selection Methods for an Improved SVM Classifier

Authors: Daniel Morariu, Lucian N. Vintan, Volker Tresp

Abstract:

Text categorization is the problem of classifying text documents into a set of predefined classes. After a preprocessing step, the documents are typically represented as large sparse vectors. When training classifiers on large collections of documents, both the time and memory restrictions can be quite prohibitive. This justifies the application of feature selection methods to reduce the dimensionality of the document-representation vector. In this paper, three feature selection methods are evaluated: Random Selection, Information Gain (IG) and Support Vector Machine feature selection (called SVM_FS). We show that the best results were obtained with SVM_FS method for a relatively small dimension of the feature vector. Also we present a novel method to better correlate SVM kernel-s parameters (Polynomial or Gaussian kernel).

Keywords: Feature Selection, Learning with Kernels, SupportVector Machine, and Classification.

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1834 Mind Your Product-Market Strategy on Selecting Marketing Inputs: An Uncertainty Approach in Indian Context

Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

Abstract:

Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirmed the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: Uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand.

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1833 Detecting Abnormal ECG Signals Utilising Wavelet Transform and Standard Deviation

Authors: Dejan Stantic, Jun Jo

Abstract:

ECG contains very important clinical information about the cardiac activities of the heart. Often the ECG signal needs to be captured for a long period of time in order to identify abnormalities in certain situations. Such signal apart of a large volume often is characterised by low quality due to the noise and other influences. In order to extract features in the ECG signal with time-varying characteristics at first need to be preprocessed with the best parameters. Also, it is useful to identify specific parts of the long lasting signal which have certain abnormalities and to direct the practitioner to those parts of the signal. In this work we present a method based on wavelet transform, standard deviation and variable threshold which achieves 100% accuracy in identifying the ECG signal peaks and heartbeat as well as identifying the standard deviation, providing a quick reference to abnormalities.

Keywords: Electrocardiogram-ECG, Arrhythmia, Signal Processing, Wavelet Transform, Standard Deviation

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1832 Color and Layout-based Identification of Documents Captured from Handheld Devices

Authors: Ardhendu Behera, Denis Lalanne, Rolf Ingold

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method, combining color and layout features, for identifying documents captured from low-resolution handheld devices. On one hand, the document image color density surface is estimated and represented with an equivalent ellipse and on the other hand, the document shallow layout structure is computed and hierarchically represented. Our identification method first uses the color information in the documents in order to focus the search space on documents having a similar color distribution, and finally selects the document having the most similar layout structure in the remaining of the search space.

Keywords: Document color modeling, document visualsignature, kernel density estimation, document identification.

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1831 Analysis of Sonogram Images of Thyroid Gland Based on Wavelet Transform

Authors: M. Bastanfard, B. Jalaeian, S. Jafari

Abstract:

Sonogram images of normal and lymphocyte thyroid tissues have considerable overlap which makes it difficult to interpret and distinguish. Classification from sonogram images of thyroid gland is tackled in semiautomatic way. While making manual diagnosis from images, some relevant information need not to be recognized by human visual system. Quantitative image analysis could be helpful to manual diagnostic process so far done by physician. Two classes are considered: normal tissue and chronic lymphocyte thyroid (Hashimoto's Thyroid). Data structure is analyzed using K-nearest-neighbors classification. This paper is mentioned that unlike the wavelet sub bands' energy, histograms and Haralick features are not appropriate to distinguish between normal tissue and Hashimoto's thyroid.

Keywords: Sonogram, thyroid, Haralick feature, wavelet.

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1830 Automatic Fingerprint Classification Using Graph Theory

Authors: Mana Tarjoman, Shaghayegh Zarei

Abstract:

Using efficient classification methods is necessary for automatic fingerprint recognition system. This paper introduces a new structural approach to fingerprint classification by using the directional image of fingerprints to increase the number of subclasses. In this method, the directional image of fingerprints is segmented into regions consisting of pixels with the same direction. Afterwards the relational graph to the segmented image is constructed and according to it, the super graph including prominent information of this graph is formed. Ultimately we apply a matching technique to compare obtained graph with the model graphs in order to classify fingerprints by using cost function. Increasing the number of subclasses with acceptable accuracy in classification and faster processing in fingerprints recognition, makes this system superior.

Keywords: Classification, Directional image, Fingerprint, Graph, Super graph.

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1829 An Implicit Region-Based Deformable Model with Local Segmentation Applied to Weld Defects Extraction

Authors: Y. Boutiche, N. Ramou, M. Ben Gharsallah

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to present and discuss a model that allows a local segmentation by using statistical information of a given image. It is based on Chan-Vese model, curve evolution, partial differential equations and binary level sets method. The proposed model uses the piecewise constant approximation of Chan-Vese model to compute Signed Pressure Force (SPF) function, this one attracts the curve to the true object(s)-s boundaries. The implemented model is used to extract weld defects from weld radiographic images in the aim to calculate the perimeter and surfaces of those weld defects; encouraged resultants are obtained on synthetic and real radiographic images.

Keywords: Active contour, Chan-Vese Model, local segmentation, weld radiographic images.

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1828 Instance-Based Ontology Matching Using Different Kinds of Formalism

Authors: Katrin Zaiß, Tim Schlüter, Stefan Conrad

Abstract:

Ontology Matching is a task needed in various applica-tions, for example for comparison or merging purposes. In literature,many algorithms solving the matching problem can be found, butmost of them do not consider instances at all. Mappings are deter-mined by calculating the string-similarity of labels, by recognizinglinguistic word relations (synonyms, subsumptions etc.) or by ana-lyzing the (graph) structure. Due to the facts that instances are oftenmodeled within the ontology and that the set of instances describesthe meaning of the concepts better than their meta information,instances should definitely be incorporated into the matching process.In this paper several novel instance-based matching algorithms arepresented which enhance the quality of matching results obtainedwith common concept-based methods. Different kinds of formalismsare use to classify concepts on account of their instances and finallyto compare the concepts directly.KeywordsInstances, Ontology Matching, Semantic Web

Keywords: Instances, Ontology Matching, Semantic Web

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1827 A New Measure of Herding Behavior: Derivation and Implications

Authors: Amina Amirat, Abdelfettah Bouri

Abstract:

If price and quantity are the fundamental building blocks of any theory of market interactions, the importance of trading volume in understanding the behavior of financial markets is clear. However, while many economic models of financial markets have been developed to explain the behavior of prices -predictability, variability, and information content- far less attention has been devoted to explaining the behavior of trading volume. In this article, we hope to expand our understanding of trading volume by developing a new measure of herding behavior based on a cross sectional dispersion of volumes betas. We apply our measure to the Toronto stock exchange using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2002. Our findings show that the herd phenomenon consists of three essential components: stationary herding, intentional herding and the feedback herding.

Keywords: Herding behavior, market return, trading volume.

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1826 Impact of Faults in Different Software Systems: A Survey

Authors: Neeraj Mohan, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

Software maintenance is extremely important activity in software development life cycle. It involves a lot of human efforts, cost and time. Software maintenance may be further subdivided into different activities such as fault prediction, fault detection, fault prevention, fault correction etc. This topic has gained substantial attention due to sophisticated and complex applications, commercial hardware, clustered architecture and artificial intelligence. In this paper we surveyed the work done in the field of software maintenance. Software fault prediction has been studied in context of fault prone modules, self healing systems, developer information, maintenance models etc. Still a lot of things like modeling and weightage of impact of different kind of faults in the various types of software systems need to be explored in the field of fault severity.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Software Maintenance, Automated Fault Prediction, and Failure Mode Analysis

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1825 Clusterization Probability in 14N Nuclei

Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

Abstract:

The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N  is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this  attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion  beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low  energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb  barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer  reactions could provide us with useful information about the  attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The  experimental data were analyzed using two approaches;  Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double  Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and  the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

 

Keywords: Deuteron Transfer, Elastic Scattering, Optical Model, Double Folding, Density Distribution.

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1824 IFDewey: A New Insert-Friendly Labeling Schemafor XML Data

Authors: S. Soltan, A. Zarnani, R. AliMohammadzadeh, M. Rahgozar

Abstract:

XML has become a popular standard for information exchange via web. Each XML document can be presented as a rooted, ordered, labeled tree. The Node label shows the exact position of a node in the original document. Region and Dewey encoding are two famous methods of labeling trees. In this paper, we propose a new insert friendly labeling method named IFDewey based on recently proposed scheme, called Extended Dewey. In Extended Dewey many labels must be modified when a new node is inserted into the XML tree. Our method eliminates this problem by reserving even numbers for future insertion. Numbers generated by Extended Dewey may be even or odd. IFDewey modifies Extended Dewey so that only odd numbers are generated and even numbers can then be used for a much easier insertion of nodes.

Keywords: XML, tree labeling, query processing.

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1823 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province

Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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