Search results for: statistical inference
1125 Using Vulnerability to Reduce False Positive Rate in Intrusion Detection Systems
Authors: Nadjah Chergui, Narhimene Boustia
Abstract:
Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks. The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.Keywords: Context, exception, default, IDS, Non-monotonic Description Logic JClassicδє, vulnerability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14301124 Effect of Heat Treatment on the Portevin-Le Chatelier Effect of Al-2.5%Mg Alloy
Authors: A. Chatterjee, A. Sarkar, N. Gayathri, P. Mukherjee, P. Barat
Abstract:
An experimental study is presented on the effect of microstructural change on the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect behaviour of Al-2.5%Mg alloy. Tensile tests are performed on the as received and heat treated (at 400 ºC for 16 hours) samples for a wide range of strain rates. The serrations observed in the stress-time curve are investigated from statistical analysis point of view. Microstructures of the samples are characterized by optical metallography and X-ray diffraction. It is found that the excess vacancy generated due to heat treatment leads to decrease in the strain rate sensitivity and the increase in the number of stress drop occurrences per unit time during the PLC effect. The microstructural parameters like domain size, dislocation density have no appreciable effect on the PLC effect as far as the statistical behavior of the serrations is considered.Keywords: Dynamic strain ageing, Heat treatment, Portevin-LeChatelier effect
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22331123 ANFIS Modeling of the Surface Roughness in Grinding Process
Authors: H. Baseri, G. Alinejad
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to design an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for estimation of surface roughness in grinding process. The Used data have been generated from experimental observations when the wheel has been dressed using a rotary diamond disc dresser. The input parameters of model are dressing speed ratio, dressing depth and dresser cross-feed rate and output parameter is surface roughness. In the experimental procedure the grinding conditions are constant and only the dressing conditions are varied. The comparison of the predicted values and the experimental data indicates that the ANFIS model has a better performance with respect to back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model which has been presented by the authors in previous work for estimation of the surface roughness.Keywords: Grinding, ANFIS, Neural network, Disc dressing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24151122 A Hybrid GMM/SVM System for Text Independent Speaker Identification
Authors: Rafik Djemili, Mouldi Bedda, Hocine Bourouba
Abstract:
This paper proposes a novel approach that combines statistical models and support vector machines. A hybrid scheme which appropriately incorporates the advantages of both the generative and discriminant model paradigms is described and evaluated. Support vector machines (SVMs) are trained to divide the whole speakers' space into small subsets of speakers within a hierarchical tree structure. During testing a speech token is assigned to its corresponding group and evaluation using gaussian mixture models (GMMs) is then processed. Experimental results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the performance of text independent speaker identification task. We report improvements of up to 50% reduction in identification error rate compared to the baseline statistical model.Keywords: Speaker identification, Gaussian mixture model (GMM), support vector machine (SVM), hybrid GMM/SVM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22371121 Terrorism as a Threat to International Peace: A Study on 9/11 Terrorism
Authors: Aftab
Abstract:
This paper is a theory-oriented study that seeks to generalize the process through which terrorism leads to the disruption of international peace. For this, it scrutinizes 9/11 terrorism based on five analytical domains of threat—security disorder, political tensions, economic adversity, socio-ideological intolerance, and the fear and cost of counterterrorism—each of which is explored in light of specific indicators. By applying qualitative correlation method, the paper finds that terrorism immediately entails five distinct kinds of negative impacts that lead to both internal disorders caused by state weakness and global disorder caused by international tensions, which in consequence, causes international peace to be disrupted. Thus, in following inductive process, the findings of this paper help to make a general inference that terrorism is a threat to international peace.
Keywords: Domains, global disorder, internal disorder, international peace, terrorism, threat.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7911120 Experimental Investigation of On-Body Channel Modelling at 2.45 GHz
Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed
Abstract:
This paper presents the experimental investigation of on-body channel fading at 2.45 GHz considering two effects of the user body movement; stationary and mobile. A pair of body-worn antennas was utilized in this measurement campaign. A statistical analysis was performed by comparing the measured on-body path loss to five well-known distributions; lognormal, normal, Nakagami, Weibull and Rayleigh. The results showed that the average path loss of moving arm varied higher than the path loss in sitting position for upper-arm-to-left-chest link, up to 3.5 dB. The analysis also concluded that the Nakagami distribution provided the best fit for most of on-body static link path loss in standing still and sitting position, while the arm movement can be best described by log-normal distribution.
Keywords: On-Body channel communications, fading characteristics, statistical model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15401119 Exchanges of Knowledge about Product Configurations using XML Topic Map
Authors: Namchul Do, Jihun Cho
Abstract:
Modeling product configurations needs large amounts of knowledge about technical and marketing restrictions on the product. Previous attempts to automate product configurations concentrate on representations and management of the knowledge for specific domains in fixed and isolated computing environments. Since the knowledge about product configurations is subject to continuous change and hard to express, these attempts often failed to efficiently manage and exchange the knowledge in collaborative product development. In this paper, XML Topic Map (XTM) is introduced to represent and exchange the knowledge about product configurations in collaborative product development. A product configuration model based on XTM along with its merger and inference facilities enables configuration engineers in collaborative product development to manage and exchange their knowledge efficiently. A prototype implementation is also presented to demonstrate the proposed model can be applied to engineering information systems to exchange the product configuration knowledge.
Keywords: Knowledge exchange, product configurations, XML topic map.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13521118 Comparing Machine Learning Estimation of Fuel Consumption of Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi
Abstract:
Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8291117 What is the Key Element for the Territory's State of Development?
Authors: J. Lonska, V. Boronenko
Abstract:
The result of process of territory-s development is the territory-s state of development (TSoD), which is pointed towards the provision and improvement of people-s life conditions. The authors offer to measure the TSoD according to their own developed model. Using the available statistical data regarding the values of model-s elements, the authors empirically show which element mainly determines the TSoD. The findings of the research showed that the key elements of the TSoD are the “Material welfare of people" and “People-s health". Performing a deeper statistical analysis of correlation between these elements, it turned out that it is not so necessary for a country to be bent on trying to increase the material growth of a territory, because a relatively high index of life expectancy at birth could be ensured also by much more modest material resources. On the other hand, the economical feedback of longer lifespan within countries with lower material performance is also relatively low.
Keywords: Development indices, health, territory's state of development, wealth.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11931116 An AK-Chart for the Non-Normal Data
Authors: Chia-Hau Liu, Tai-Yue Wang
Abstract:
Traditional multivariate control charts assume that measurement from manufacturing processes follows a multivariate normal distribution. However, this assumption may not hold or may be difficult to verify because not all the measurement from manufacturing processes are normal distributed in practice. This study develops a new multivariate control chart for monitoring the processes with non-normal data. We propose a mechanism based on integrating the one-class classification method and the adaptive technique. The adaptive technique is used to improve the sensitivity to small shift on one-class classification in statistical process control. In addition, this design provides an easy way to allocate the value of type I error so it is easier to be implemented. Finally, the simulation study and the real data from industry are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose control charts.
Keywords: Multivariate control chart, statistical process control, one-class classification method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22691115 Predictive Maintenance of Industrial Shredders: Efficient Operation through Real-Time Monitoring Using Statistical Machine Learning
Authors: Federico Pittino, Dominik Holzmann, Krithika Sayar-Chand, Stefan Moser, Sebastian Pliessnig, Thomas Arnold
Abstract:
The shredding of waste materials is a key step in the recycling process towards circular economy. Industrial shredders for waste processing operate in very harsh operating conditions, leading to the need of frequent maintenance of critical components. The maintenance optimization is particularly important also to increase the machine’s efficiency, thereby reducing the operational costs. In this work, a monitoring system has been developed and deployed on an industrial shredder located at a waste recycling plant in Austria. The machine has been monitored for several months and methods for predictive maintenance have been developed for two key components: the cutting knives and the drive belt. The large amount of collected data is leveraged by statistical machine learning techniques, thereby not requiring a very detailed knowledge of the machine or its live operating conditions. The results show that, despite the wide range of operating conditions, a reliable estimate of the optimal time for maintenance can be derived. Moreover, the trade-off between the cost of maintenance and the increase in power consumption due to the wear state of the monitored components of the machine is investigated. This work proves the benefits of real-time monitoring system for efficient operation of industrial shredders.
Keywords: predictive maintenance, circular economy, industrial shredder, cost optimization, statistical machine learning
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6401114 Electricity Consumption Prediction Model using Neuro-Fuzzy System
Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil
Abstract:
In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.
Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20111113 ANFIS Approach for Locating Faults in Underground Cables
Authors: Magdy B. Eteiba, Wael Ismael Wahba, Shimaa Barakat
Abstract:
This paper presents a fault identification, classification and fault location estimation method based on Discrete Wavelet Transform and Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for medium voltage cable in the distribution system.
Different faults and locations are simulated by ATP/EMTP, and then certain selected features of the wavelet transformed signals are used as an input for a training process on the ANFIS. Then an accurate fault classifier and locator algorithm was designed, trained and tested using current samples only. The results obtained from ANFIS output were compared with the real output. From the results, it was found that the percentage error between ANFIS output and real output is less than three percent. Hence, it can be concluded that the proposed technique is able to offer high accuracy in both of the fault classification and fault location.
Keywords: ANFIS, Fault location, Underground Cable, Wavelet Transform.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27411112 Black Box Model and Evolutionary Fuzzy Control Methods of Coupled-Tank System
Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami
Abstract:
In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.
Keywords: Function tuner method, fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16481111 Time-Domain Analysis of Pulse Parameters Effects on Crosstalk (In High Speed Circuits)
Authors: L. Tani, N. El Ouzzani
Abstract:
Crosstalk among interconnects and printed-circuit board (PCB) traces is a major limiting factor of signal quality in highspeed digital and communication equipments especially when fast data buses are involved. Such a bus is considered as a planar multiconductor transmission line. This paper will demonstrate how the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method provides an exact solution of the transmission-line equations to analyze the near end and the far end crosstalk. In addition, this study makes it possible to analyze the rise time effect on the near and far end voltages of the victim conductor. The paper also discusses a statistical analysis, based upon a set of several simulations. Such analysis leads to a better understanding of the phenomenon and yields useful information.Keywords: Multiconductor transmission line, Crosstalk, Finite difference time domain (FDTD), printed-circuit board (PCB), Rise time, Statistical analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17731110 EML-Estimation of Multivariate t Copulas with Heuristic Optimization
Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng
Abstract:
In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15601109 Words Reordering based on Statistical Language Model
Authors: Theologos Athanaselis, Stelios Bakamidis, Ioannis Dologlou
Abstract:
There are multiple reasons to expect that detecting the word order errors in a text will be a difficult problem, and detection rates reported in the literature are in fact low. Although grammatical rules constructed by computer linguists improve the performance of grammar checker in word order diagnosis, the repairing task is still very difficult. This paper presents an approach for repairing word order errors in English text by reordering words in a sentence and choosing the version that maximizes the number of trigram hits according to a language model. The novelty of this method concerns the use of an efficient confusion matrix technique for reordering the words. The comparative advantage of this method is that works with a large set of words, and avoids the laborious and costly process of collecting word order errors for creating error patterns.Keywords: Permutations filtering, Statistical languagemodel N-grams, Word order errors
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15861108 Statistical Process Optimization Through Multi-Response Surface Methodology
Authors: S. Raissi, R- Eslami Farsani
Abstract:
In recent years, response surface methodology (RSM) has brought many attentions of many quality engineers in different industries. Most of the published literature on robust design methodology is basically concerned with optimization of a single response or quality characteristic which is often most critical to consumers. For most products, however, quality is multidimensional, so it is common to observe multiple responses in an experimental situation. Through this paper interested person will be familiarize with this methodology via surveying of the most cited technical papers. It is believed that the proposed procedure in this study can resolve a complex parameter design problem with more than two responses. It can be applied to those areas where there are large data sets and a number of responses are to be optimized simultaneously. In addition, the proposed procedure is relatively simple and can be implemented easily by using ready-made standard statistical packages.Keywords: Multi-Response Surface Methodology (MRSM), Design of Experiments (DOE), Process modeling, Quality improvement; Robust Design.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 44581107 Pattern Recognition of Partial Discharge by Using Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP
Authors: S. Boonpoke, B. Marungsri
Abstract:
This paper presents the effectiveness of artificial intelligent technique to apply for pattern recognition and classification of Partial Discharge (PD). Characteristics of PD signal for pattern recognition and classification are computed from the relation of the voltage phase angle, the discharge magnitude and the repeated existing of partial discharges by using statistical and fractal methods. The simplified fuzzy ARTMAP (SFAM) is used for pattern recognition and classification as artificial intelligent technique. PDs quantities, 13 parameters from statistical method and fractal method results, are inputted to Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP to train system for pattern recognition and classification. The results confirm the effectiveness of purpose technique.Keywords: Partial discharges, PD Pattern recognition, PDClassification, Artificial intelligent, Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30841106 Various Advanced Statistical Analyses of Index Values Extracted from Outdoor Agricultural Workers Motion Data
Authors: Shinji Kawakura, Ryosuke Shibasaki
Abstract:
We have been grouping and developing various kinds of practical, promising sensing applied systems concerning agricultural advancement and technical tradition (guidance). These include advanced devices to secure real-time data related to worker motion, and we analyze by methods of various advanced statistics and human dynamics (e.g. primary component analysis, Ward system based cluster analysis, and mapping). What is more, we have been considering worker daily health and safety issues. Targeted fields are mainly common farms, meadows, and gardens. After then, we observed and discussed time-line style, changing data. And, we made some suggestions. The entire plan makes it possible to improve both the aforementioned applied systems and farms.
Keywords: Advanced statistical analysis, wearable sensing system, tradition of skill, supporting for workers, detecting crisis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16341105 A Statistical Model for the Dynamics of Single Cathode Spot in Vacuum Cylindrical Cathode
Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan
Abstract:
Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.Keywords: Cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13981104 A Multi-Agent Intelligent System for Monitoring Health Conditions of Elderly People
Authors: Ayman M. Mansour
Abstract:
In this paper, we propose a multi-agent intelligent system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of elderly people. Monitoring the health condition of elderly people is a complex problem that involves different medical units and requires continuous monitoring. Such expert system is highly needed in rural areas because of inadequate number of available specialized physicians or nurses. Such monitoring must have autonomous interactions between these medical units in order to be effective. A multi-agent system is formed by a community of agents that exchange information and proactively help one another to achieve the goal of elderly monitoring. The agents in the developed system are equipped with intelligent decision maker that arms them with the rule-based reasoning capability that can assist the physicians in making decisions regarding the medical condition of elderly people.
Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, Inference system, Monitoring system, Multi-agent system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22821103 A Statistical Study on Young UAE Driver’s Behavior towards Road Safety
Authors: Sadia Afroza, Rakiba Rouf
Abstract:
Road safety and associated behaviors have received significant attention in recent years, reflecting general public concern. This paper portrays a statistical scenario of the young drivers in UAE with emphasis on various concern points of young driver’s behavior and license issuance. Although there are many factors contributing to road accidents, statistically it is evident that age plays a major role in road accidents. Despite ensuring strict road safety laws enforced by the UAE government, there is a staggering correlation among road accidents and young driver’s at UAE. However, private organizations like BMW and RoadSafetyUAE have extended its support on conducting surveys on driver’s behavior with an aim to ensure road safety. Various strategies such as road safety law enforcement, license issuance, adapting new technologies like safety cameras and raising awareness can be implemented to improve the road safety concerns among young drivers.
Keywords: Driving behavior, GLDS, road safety, UAE drivers, young drivers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13781102 The Effectiveness of Ultrasound Treatment on the Germination Stimulation of Barley Seed and its Alpha-Amylase Activity
Authors: M. Yaldagard, S.A. Mortazavi, F. Tabatabaie
Abstract:
In the present study, the effects of ultrasound as emerging technology were investigated on germination stimulation, amount of alpha-amylase activity on dry barley seeds before steeping stage of malting process. All experiments were carried out at 20 KHz on the ultrasonic generator in 3 different ultrasonic intensities (20, 60 and 100% setting from total power of device) and time (5, 10 and 15 min) at constant temperature (30C). For determining the effects of these parameters on enzyme the Fuwa method assay based on the decreased staining value of blue starch–iodine complexes employed for measurement an activity. The results of these assays were analyzed by Qualitek4 software using the Taguchi statistical method to evaluate the factor-s effects on enzyme activity. It has been found that when malting barley is irradiated with an ultrasonic power, a stimulating effect occurs as to the enzyme activity.Keywords: ultrasound, alpha-amylase activity, stimulationand Taguchi statistical method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 46181101 Review of Downscaling Methods in Climate Change and Their Role in Hydrological Studies
Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey
Abstract:
Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.
Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, GCM, RCM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 33751100 The Wijma Delivery Expectancy/Experience Questionnaire (W-DEQ) with Turkish Sample: Confirmatory and Exploratory Factor Analysis
Authors: Oznur Korukcu, Kamile Kukulu, Mehmet Z. Firat
Abstract:
The propose of this study is to investigate the factor structures of the W-DEQ, originally developed on UK and Swedish women, were confirmed in Turkish samples, and to obtain a new modified factor structure appropriate to Turkish culture. Statistical analyses of the data obtained were performed using SPSS© for Windows version 13.0 and the SAS statistical software Version 9.1. Both confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis of W-DEQ were performed in the study. Factor analysis yielded four factors related to hope, fear, lack of positive anticipation and riskiness. The alpha estimates of the total W-DEQ score were somewhat higher, being 0.92 for the parous and 0.90 for the nulliparous sample. These are well above the accepted limit of 0.70 and indicate excellent levels of internal reliability, thus showing that the questions were appropriate to the Turkish culture and useful scale for the evaluation of fear of childbirth in Turkish pregnants.
Keywords: Confirmatory factor analysis, cross-cultural research, exploratory factor analysis, fear of childbirth.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 51271099 A Hybrid Ontology Based Approach for Ranking Documents
Authors: Sarah Motiee, Azadeh Nematzadeh, Mehrnoush Shamsfard
Abstract:
Increasing growth of information volume in the internet causes an increasing need to develop new (semi)automatic methods for retrieval of documents and ranking them according to their relevance to the user query. In this paper, after a brief review on ranking models, a new ontology based approach for ranking HTML documents is proposed and evaluated in various circumstances. Our approach is a combination of conceptual, statistical and linguistic methods. This combination reserves the precision of ranking without loosing the speed. Our approach exploits natural language processing techniques to extract phrases from documents and the query and doing stemming on words. Then an ontology based conceptual method will be used to annotate documents and expand the query. To expand a query the spread activation algorithm is improved so that the expansion can be done flexible and in various aspects. The annotated documents and the expanded query will be processed to compute the relevance degree exploiting statistical methods. The outstanding features of our approach are (1) combining conceptual, statistical and linguistic features of documents, (2) expanding the query with its related concepts before comparing to documents, (3) extracting and using both words and phrases to compute relevance degree, (4) improving the spread activation algorithm to do the expansion based on weighted combination of different conceptual relationships and (5) allowing variable document vector dimensions. A ranking system called ORank is developed to implement and test the proposed model. The test results will be included at the end of the paper.Keywords: Document ranking, Ontology, Spread activation algorithm, Annotation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16301098 A New Heuristic Statistical Methodology for Optimizing Queuing Networks Using Discreet Event Simulation
Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi
Abstract:
Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.
Keywords: Estimation, queuing system, simulation model, probability distribution, non-Markov chain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16201097 Hardness Variations as Affected by Bar Diameter of AISI 4140 Steel
Authors: Hamad K. Al-Khalid, Ayman M. Alaskari, Samy E. Oraby
Abstract:
Hardness of the widely used structural steel is of vital importance since it may help in the determination of many mechanical properties of a material under loading situations. In order to obtain reliable information for design, properties homogeneity should be validated. In the current study the hardness variation over the different diameters of the same AISI 4140 bar is investigated. Measurements were taken on the two faces of the stock at equally spaced eight sectors and fifteen layers. Statistical and graphical analysis are performed to asses the distribution of hardness measurements over the specified area. Hardness measurements showed some degree of dispersion with about ± 10% of its nominal value provided by manufacturer. Hardness value is found to have a slight decrease trend as the diameter is reduced. However, an opposite behavior is noticed regarding the sequence of the sector indicating a nonuniform distribution over the same area either on the same face or considering the corresponding sector on the other face (cross section) of the same material bar.Keywords: Hardness; Hardness variation; AISI 4140 steel; Bardiameter; Statistical Analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29291096 RANFIS : Rough Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Authors: Sandeep Chandana, Rene V. Mayorga
Abstract:
The paper presents a new hybridization methodology involving Neural, Fuzzy and Rough Computing. A Rough Sets based approximation technique has been proposed based on a certain Neuro – Fuzzy architecture. A New Rough Neuron composition consisting of a combination of a Lower Bound neuron and a Boundary neuron has also been described. The conventional convergence of error in back propagation has been given away for a new framework based on 'Output Excitation Factor' and an inverse input transfer function. The paper also presents a brief comparison of performances, of the existing Rough Neural Networks and ANFIS architecture against the proposed methodology. It can be observed that the rough approximation based neuro-fuzzy architecture is superior to its counterparts.
Keywords: Boundary neuron, neuro-fuzzy, output excitation factor, RANFIS, rough approximation, rough neural computing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1704