Search results for: ordinal response models

Authors: Ying Wang

Abstract:

Service trade is an important force of influencing economic development. A review on the related literatures is done firstly. Then through the construction of a Diamond Model, the main factors which influence the competitiveness of Chinese service trade are determined. With three competitiveness indexes served as the reference series respectively, the influencing factors served as the comparable series, three grey incidence models are then built up to conduct an empirical analysis on the main factors influencing the competitiveness of service trade after China entering WTO. The result indicates that urbanization level, open degree of service industry and foreign direct investment have larger impacts on Chinese service trade competitiveness, followed in turn by GDP in service industry and human capital, while commodity trade has the minimum impact. Further discussion provides train of thought for the upgrade of Chinese service trade competitiveness.

Keywords: Service Trade, Competitiveness, Diamond Model, Grey Incidence Model.

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Authors: Marius Mosoarca, Victor Gioncu, Ovidiu Cosma

Abstract:

Historic religious buildings located in seismic areas have developed different failure mechanisms. Simulation of failure modes is done with computer programs through a nonlinear dynamic analysis or simplified using the method of failure blocks. Currently there are simulation methodologies of failure modes based on the failure rigid blocks method only for Roman Catholic churches type. Due to differences of shape in plan, elevation and construction systems between Orthodox churches and Catholic churches, for the first time there were initiated researches in the development of this simulation methodology for Orthodox churches. In this article are presented the first results from the researches. The theoretical results were compared with real failure modes recorded at an Orthodox church from Banat region, severely damaged by earthquakes in 1991. Simulated seismic response, using a computer program based on finite element method was confirmed by cracks after earthquakes. The consolidation of the church was made according to these theoretical results, realizing a rigid floor connecting all the failure blocks.

Keywords: Dinamic analysis, failure mechanism, rigid blocks seismic simulation.

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Authors: Mustafa Kavraz

Abstract:

This study investigated the differences in the objective parameters of sound depending on the changes in the lengths of the lateral surfaces of a space and on the replacement of the sound absorbers that are placed on these surfaces. To this end, three models of room were chosen. The widths and heights of these rooms were the same but the lengths of the rooms were changed. The smallest room was 8 m. wide and 10 m. long. The lengths of the other two rooms were 15 m. and 20 m. For each model, the differences in the objective parameters of sound were determined by keeping all the material in the space intact and by changing only the positions of the sound absorbers that were placed on the walls. The sound absorbers that were used on the walls were of two different sizes. The sound absorbers that were placed on the walls were 4 m and 8 m. long and story-height (3 m.). In all model room types, the sound absorbers were placed on the long walls in three different ways: at the end of the long walls where the long walls meet the front wall; at the end of the long walls where the long walls meet the back wall; and in the middle part of the long walls. Except for the specially placed sound absorbers, the ground, wall and ceiling surfaces were covered with three different materials. There were no constructional elements such as doors and windows on the walls. On the surfaces, the materials specified in the Odeon 10 material library were used as coating material. Linoleum was used as flooring material, painted plaster as wall coating material and gypsum boards as ceiling covering (2 layers with a total of 32 mm. thickness). These were preferred due to the fact that they are the commonly used materials for these purposes. This study investigated the differences in the objective parameters of sound depending on the changes in the lengths of the lateral surfaces of a space and on the replacement of the sound absorbers that are placed on these surfaces. To this end, three models of room were chosen. The widths and heights of these rooms were the same but the lengths of the rooms were changed. The smallest room was 8 m. wide and 10 m. long. The lengths of the other two rooms were 15 m. and 20 m. For each model, the differences in the objective parameters of sound were determined by keeping all the material in the space intact and by changing only the positions of the sound absorbers that were placed on the walls. The sound absorbers that were used on the walls were of two different sizes. The sound absorbers that were placed on the walls were 4 m and 8 m. long and story-height (3 m.). In all model room types, the sound absorbers were placed on the long walls in three different ways: at the end of the long walls where the long walls meet the front wall; at the end of the long walls where the long walls meet the back wall; and in the middle part of the long walls. Except for the specially placed sound absorbers, the ground, wall and ceiling surfaces were covered with three different materials. There were no constructional elements such as doors and windows on the walls. On the surfaces, the materials specified in the Odeon 10 material library were used as coating material. Linoleum was used as flooring material, painted plaster as wall coating material and gypsum boards as ceiling covering (2 layers with a total of 32 mm. thickness). These were preferred due to the fact that they are the commonly used materials for these purposes.

Keywords: Jnd, objective parameters of sound, room model, sound absorber.

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Authors: Darren Thompson, Philip Morrow, Bryan Scotney, John Winder

Abstract:

Patients with diabetes are susceptible to chronic foot wounds which may be difficult to manage and slow to heal. Diagnosis and treatment currently rely on the subjective judgement of experienced professionals. An objective method of tissue assessment is required. In this paper, a data fusion approach was taken to wound tissue classification. The supervised Maximum Likelihood and unsupervised Multi-Modal Expectation Maximisation algorithms were used to classify tissues within simulated wound models by weighting the contributions of both colour and 3D depth information. It was found that, at low weightings, depth information could show significant improvements in classification accuracy when compared to classification by colour alone, particularly when using the maximum likelihood method. However, larger weightings were found to have an entirely negative effect on accuracy.

Keywords: Classification, data fusion, diabetic foot, stereophotogrammetry, tissue colour.

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Authors: Namal A. Senanayake, A. Beg, Withana C. Prasad

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the patterns of the Monte Carlo data for a large number of variables and minterms, in order to characterize the circuit path length behavior. We propose models that are determined by training process of shortest path length derived from a wide range of binary decision diagram (BDD) simulations. The creation of the model was done use of feed forward neural network (NN) modeling methodology. Experimental results for ISCAS benchmark circuits show an RMS error of 0.102 for the shortest path length complexity estimation predicted by the NN model (NNM). Use of such a model can help reduce the time complexity of very large scale integrated (VLSI) circuitries and related computer-aided design (CAD) tools that use BDDs.

Keywords: Monte Carlo data, Binary decision diagrams, Neural network modeling, Shortest path length estimation.

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Authors: A. Larabi, M. S. Boucherit

Abstract:

In this paper, we show that the association of the PI regulators for the speed and stator currents with a control strategy using the linearization by state feedback for an induction machine without speed sensor, and with an adaptation of the rotor resistance. The rotor speed is estimated by using the model reference adaptive system approach (MRAS). This method consists of using two models: The first is the reference model and the second is an adjustable one in which two components of the stator flux, obtained from the measurement of the currents and stator voltages are estimated. The estimated rotor speed is then obtained by canceling the difference between stator-flux of the reference model and those of the adjustable one. Satisfactory results of simulation are obtained and discussed in this paper to highlight the proposed approach.

Keywords: Asynchronous actuator, PI Regulator, adaptivemethod with reference model, Vector control.

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Authors: F. Khaber, K. Zehar, A. Hamzaoui

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In this paper, we introduce a robust state feedback controller design using Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) and guaranteed cost approach for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems. The purpose on this work is to establish a systematic method to design controllers for a class of uncertain linear and non linear systems. Our approach utilizes a certain type of fuzzy systems that are based on Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy models to approximate nonlinear systems. We use a robust control methodology to design controllers. This method not only guarantees stability, but also minimizes an upper bound on a linear quadratic performance measure. A simulation example is presented to show the effectiveness of this method.

Keywords: Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, state feedback, linear matrix inequalities, robust stability.

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Authors: Mohammad N. Alanazi, David A. Gustafson

Abstract:

In this article, we introduce a new approach for analyzing UML designs to detect the inconsistencies between multiple state diagrams and sequence diagrams. The Super State Analysis (SSA) identifies the inconsistencies in super states, single step transitions, and sequences. Because SSA considers multiple UML state diagrams, it discovers inconsistencies that cannot be discovered when considering only a single UML state diagram. We have introduced a transition set that captures relationship information that is not specifiable in UML diagrams. The SSA model uses the transition set to link transitions of multiple state diagrams together. The analysis generates three different sets automatically. These sets are compared to the provided sets to detect the inconsistencies. SSA identifies five types of inconsistencies: impossible super states, unreachable super states, illegal transitions, missing transitions, and illegal sequences.

Keywords: Modeling Languages, Object-Oriented Analysis, Sequence Diagrams, Software Models, State Diagrams, UML.

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Authors: Emine Teke, Soner Kuşlu, Sabri Çolak, Turan Çalban

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the dissolution kinetics of ulexite in sodium dihydrogen phosphate in a mechanical agitation system and also to declare an alternative reactant to produce the boric acid. Reaction temperature, concentration of sodium dihydrogen phosphate, stirring speed, solid-liquid ratio, and ulexite particle size were selected as parameters. The experimental results were successfully correlated by using linear regression and a statistical program. Dissolution curves were evaluated in order to test the shrinking core models for solid-fluid systems. It was observed that increase in the reaction temperature and decrease in the solid/liquid ratio causes an increase in the dissolution rate of ulexite. The activation energy was found to be 36.4 kJ/mol. The leaching of ulexite was controlled by diffusion through the ash (or product) layer.

Keywords: Sodium dihydrogen phosphate, leaching kinetics, ulexite.

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Authors: M. E. Abou-Hashem El Dib, M. K. Swailem, M. M. Metwally, A. I. El Awady

Abstract:

The present work illustrates a parametric study for the effect of stiffeners on the performance of slender built up steel I-columns. To achieve the desired analysis, finite element technique is used to develop nonlinear three-dimensional models representing the investigated columns. The finite element program (ANSYS 13.0) is used as a calculation tool for the necessary nonlinear analysis. A validation of the obtained numerical results is achieved. The considered parameters in the study are the column slenderness ratio and the horizontal stiffener's dimensions as well as the number of stiffeners. The dimensions of the stiffeners considered in the analysis are the stiffener width and the stiffener thickness. Numerical results signify a considerable effect of stiffeners on the performance and failure load of slender built up steel I-columns.

Keywords: Steel I-columns, local buckling, slender, stiffener, thin walled section.

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Authors: Ly. Benbahouche

Abstract:

Currently, several soft switching topologies have been studied to achieve high power switching efficiency, reduced cost, improved reliability and reduced parasites. It is well known that improvement in power electronics systems always depend on advanced in power devices. The IGBT has been successfully used in a variety of switching applications such as motor drives and appliance control because of its superior characteristics.

The aim of this paper is focuses on simulation and explication of the internal dynamics of IGBTs behaviour under the most popular soft switching schemas that is Zero Current Switching (ZCS) environments.

The main purpose of this paper is to point out some mechanisms relating to current tail during the turn-off and examination of the response at turn-off with variation of temperature, inductance L, snubber capacitors Cs, and bus voltage in order to achieve an improved understanding of internal carrier dynamics. It is shown that the snubber capacitor, the inductance and even the temperature controls the magnitude and extent of the tail current, hence the turn-off time (switching speed of the device).

Moreover, it has also been demonstrated that the ZCS switching can be utilized efficiently to improve and reduce the power losses as well as the turn-off time. Furthermore, the turn-off loss in ZCS was found to depend on the time of switching of the device.

Keywords: PT-IGBT, ZCS, turn-off losses, dV/dt.

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Authors: Ana Hol

Abstract:

Digital systems are in the Cognitive wave of the eTransformations and are now extensively aimed at meeting the individuals’ demands, both those of customers requiring services and those of service providers. It is also apparent that successful future systems will not just simply open doors to the traditional owners/users to offer and receive services such as Uber, for example, does today, but will in the future require more customized and cognitively enabled infrastructures that will be responsive to the system user’s needs. To be able to identify what is required for such systems this research reviews the historical and the current effects of the eTransformation process by studying: 1. eTransitions of company websites and mobile applications, 2. Emergence of new shared economy business models such as Uber, and 3. New requirements for demand driven, cognitive systems capable of learning and just-in-time decision-making. Based on the analysis, this study proposes a Cognitive eTransformation Framework capable of guiding implementations of new responsive and user aware systems.

Keywords: System implementations, AI supported systems, cognitive systems, eTransformation.

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Authors: Nergiz Fırıncı, Aysun Çelik, Ertan Akün, Md. Atif Khan

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A pilot project was carried out in 2007 by the senior students of Cyprus International University, aiming to minimize the total cost of waste collection in Northern Cyprus. Many developed and developing countries have cut their transportation costs – which lies between 30-40% – down at a rate of 40% percent, by implementing network models for their route assignments. Accordingly, a network model was implemented at Göçmenköy district, to optimize and standardize waste collection works. The work environment of the employees were also redesigned to provide maximum ergonomy and to increase productivity, efficiency and safety. Following the collection of the required data including waste densities, lengths of roads and population, a model was constructed to allocate the optimal route assignment for the waste collection trucks at Göçmenköy district.

Keywords: Minimization, waste collection, operations cost, transportation, ergonomy, productivity.

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Authors: Mustafa Bin Yusof, Mohammad Amirul Affiz Bin Afripin

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Safety of bus journey is a fundamental concern. Risk of injuries and fatalities is severe when bus superstructure fails during rollover accident. Adequate design and sufficient strength of bus superstructure can reduce the number of injuries and fatalities. This paper deals with structural analysis of bus superstructure undergoes rollover event. Several value of mass will be varied in multiple simulations. The purpose of this work is to analyze structural response of bus superstructure in terms of deformation, stress and strain under several loading and constraining conditions. A complete bus superstructure with forty four passenger-s capability was developed using finite element analysis software. Simulations have been conducted to observe the effect of total mass of bus on the strength of superstructure. These simulations are following United Nation Economic Commission of Europe regulation 66 which focuses on strength of large vehicle superstructure. Validation process had been done using simple box model experiment and results obtained are comparing with simulation results. Inputs data from validation process had been used in full scale simulation. Analyses suggested that, the failure of bus superstructure during rollover situation is basically dependent on the total mass of bus and on the strength of bus superstructure.

Keywords: Bus, rollover, superstructure strength, UNECE regulation 66.

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Authors: Jamal Abdi

Abstract:

This paper is largely a response/critique of Samuel P. Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations thesis. The overriding argument is that Huntington´s thesis is characterized by failure to distinguish between ´groups´ and ´categories´. Multinational civilizations overcoming their internal collective action problems, which would enable them to pursue a unified strategy vis-à-vis the West, is a rather foundational assumption in his theory. Without assigning sufficient intellectual attention to the processes through which multinational civilizations may gain capacity for concerted action i.e. become a group, he contended that the post-cold-war world would be shaped in large measure by interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. Thus, failure in providing a convincing analysis of multi-national civilizations´ transition from categories to groups is a significant weakness in Huntington´s clash theory. It is also suggested that so-called Islamic terrorism and the war on terror is not to be taken as an expression of presence of clash between a Western and an Islamic civilization, as terrorist organizations would be superfluous in a world characterized by clash of civilizations. Consequences of multinational civilizations becoming a group are discussed in relation to contemporary Western superiority.

Keywords: Clash of civilizations, groups, categories, groupism.

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Authors: Jeong-Hwan Choi, Hyo-Sang Park, Tae-Hyung Lee

Abstract:

The transmission tower is one of the crucial lifeline structures in a modern society, and it needs to be protected against extreme loading conditions. However, the transmission tower is a very complex structure and, therefore, it is very difficult to simulate the actual damage and the collapse behavior of the tower structure. In this study, the actual collapse behavior of the transmission tower due to lateral loading conditions such as wind load is evaluated through the computational simulation. For that, a progressive collapse procedure is applied to the simulation. In this procedure, after running the simulation, if a member of the tower structure fails, the failed member is removed and the simulation run again. The 154kV transmission tower is selected for this study. The simulation is performed by nonlinear static analysis procedure, namely pushover analysis, using OpenSEES, an earthquake simulation platform. Three-dimensional finite element models of those towers are developed.

Keywords: Transmission tower, OpenSEES, pushover analysis, progressive collapse.

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Authors: Alireza Vakili, Mohsen Danesh Mesgaran, Majid Abdollazade

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In this study four Holstein steers with rumen fistula fed 7 kg of dry matter (DM) of diets differing in concentrate to alfalfa hay ratios as 60:40, 70:30, 80:20, and 90:10 in a 4 × 4 latin square design. The pH of the ruminal fluid was measured before the morning feeding (0.0 h) to 8 h post feeding. In this study, a two-layered feed-forward neural network trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used for modelling of ruminal pH. The input variables of the network were time, concentrate to alfalfa hay ratios (C/F), non fiber carbohydrate (NFC) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF). The output variable was the ruminal pH. The modeling results showed that there was excellent agreement between the experimental data and predicted values, with a high determination coefficient (R2 >0.96). Therefore, we suggest using these model-derived biological values to summarize continuously recorded pH data.

Keywords: Ruminal pH, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Non Fiber Carbohydrate, Neutral Detergent Fiber.

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Authors: Pradip Deb

Abstract:

Quantitative radiobiological models can be used to assess the optimum clinical outcome from sophisticated therapeutic modalities by calculating tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study two 3D-CRT and an IMRT treatment plans were developed with an initial prescription dose of 60 Gy in 2 Gy/fraction to prostate. Sensitivity of TCP and Complication free tumor control probability (P+) to the different values of α/β ratio was investigated for various prescription doses planned to be delivered in either a fixed number of fractions (I) or in a fixed dose per fraction (II) in each of the three different treatment plans. High dose/fraction and high α/β value result in comparatively smaller P+ and IMRT plans resulted in the highest P+, mainly due to the decrease in NTCP. If α/β is lower than expected, better tumor control can be achieved by increasing dose/fraction but decreasing the number of fractions.

Keywords: Linear Quadratic Model, TCP, NTCP, α/β ratio.

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Authors: Ali Khajeh Samani, Mario M. Attard

Abstract:

Lateral expansion is a factor defining the level of confinement in reinforced concrete columns. Therefore, predicting the lateral strain relationship with axial strain becomes an important issue. Measuring lateral strains in experiments is difficult and only few report experimental lateral strains. Among the existing analytical formulations, two recent models are compared with available test results in this paper with shortcomings highlighted. A new analytical model is proposed here for lateral strain axial strain relationship and is based on the supposition that the concrete behaves linear elastic in the early stages of loading and then nonlinear hardening up to the peak stress and then volumetric expansion. The proposal for the lateral strain axial strain relationship after the peak stress is mainly based on the hypothesis that the plastic lateral strain varies linearly with the plastic axial strain and it is shown that this is related to the lateral confinement level.

Keywords: Confined Concrete, Lateral Strain, Triaxial test, Postpeak behavior

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Authors: A. Nusrath Unissa, Sameer Hassan, Luke Elizabeth Hanna

Abstract:

Altered drug binding may be an important factor in isoniazid (INH) resistance, rather than major changes in the enzyme’s activity as a catalase or peroxidase (KatG). The identification of structural or functional defects in the mutant KatGs responsible for INH resistance remains as an area to be explored. In this connection, the differences in the binding affinity between wild-type (WT) and mutants of KatG were investigated, through the generation of three mutants of KatG, Ser315Thr [S315T], Ser315Asn [S315N], Ser315Arg [S315R] and a WT [S315]) with the help of software-MODELLER. The mutants were docked with INH using the software-GOLD. The affinity is lower for WT than mutant, suggesting the tight binding of INH with the mutant protein compared to WT type. These models provide the in silico evidence for the binding interaction of KatG with INH and implicate the basis for rationalization of INH resistance in naturally occurring KatG mutant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Keywords: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, KatG, INH resistance, Mutants, Modeling, Docking.

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Authors: N. Miklavčič, U. Kugovnik, N. Galkina, P. Ribarič, R. Vončina

Abstract:

Today the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is critical also for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models.

Keywords: Measurement uncertainty, microscale meteorological model, CALMET meteorological station, orthogonal regression.

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Authors: Olga V. Korotkaya

Abstract:

This article is devoted to an important problem of calculation of deflected mode of the combustion chamber and the nozzle end of a new liquid-propellant rocket cruise engine. A special attention is given to the methodology of calculation. Three operating modes are considered. The analysis has been conducted in ANSYS software. The methods of conducted research are mathematical modeling, substructure method, cyclic symmetry, finite element method. The calculation has been carried out to order of S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation «Energia». The main results are practical. Proposed methodology and created models would be able to use for a wide range of strength problems.

Keywords: Combustion chamber, cyclic symmetry, finite element method, liquid-propellant rocket engine, nozzle end, substructure.

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Authors: Youkyung Park, SeungYup Kang, SungHo Kim, SimKyun Yook

Abstract:

IMCS is Integrated Monitoring and Control System for thermal power plant. This system consists of mainly two parts; controllers and OIS (Operator Interface System). These two parts are connected by Ethernet-based communication. The controller side of communication is managed by CNet module and OIS side is managed by data server of OIS. CNet module sends the data of controller to data server and receives commend data from data server. To minimizes or balance the load of data server, this module buffers data created by controller at every cycle and send buffered data to data server on request of data server. For multiple data server, this module manages the connection line with each data server and response for each request from multiple data server. CNet module is included in each controller of redundant system. When controller fail-over happens on redundant system, this module can provide data of controller to data sever without loss. This paper presents three main features – separation of get task, usage of ring buffer and monitoring communication status –of CNet module to carry out these functions.

Keywords: Ethernet communication, DCS, power plant, ring buffer, data integrity

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Authors: Gayadhar Panda, Sidhartha Panda, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The main objective of Automatic Generation Control (AGC) is to balance the total system generation against system load losses so that the desired frequency and power interchange with neighboring systems is maintained. Any mismatch between generation and demand causes the system frequency to deviate from its nominal value. Thus high frequency deviation may lead to system collapse. This necessitates a very fast and accurate controller to maintain the nominal system frequency. This paper deals with a novel approach of artificial intelligence (AI) technique called Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy (HNF) approach for an (AGC). The advantage of this controller is that it can handle the non-linearities at the same time it is faster than other conventional controllers. The effectiveness of the proposed controller in increasing the damping of local and inter area modes of oscillation is demonstrated in a two area interconnected power system. The result shows that intelligent controller is having improved dynamic response and at the same time faster than conventional controller.

Keywords: Automatic Generation Control (AGC), Dynamic Model, Two-area Power System, Fuzzy Logic Controller, Neural Network, Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy(HNF).

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Authors: G. Mesfin, M. Shuhaimi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new optimization techniques for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and 85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations cases.

Keywords: Butane, Feed composition, LPG, Productspecification, Propane.

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Authors: А. Pashayev, D. Askerov, R. Sadiqov, A. Samedov, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.

Keywords: Modeling, Simulating, Gas Turbine, Cooled Blades.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

Abstract:

Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: Amjad Riaz, Ali Farsi, Gholamreza Zahedi, Zainuddin Abdul Manan

Abstract:

Synthesis gas manufacturing by steam reforming of hydrocarbons is an important industrial process. High endothermic nature of the process makes it one of the most cost and heat intensive processes. In the present work, composite effect of different inert gases on synthesis gas yield, feed gas conversion and temperature distribution along the reactor length has been studied using a heterogeneous model. Mathematical model was developed as a first stage and validated against the existing process models. With the addition of inert gases, a higher yield of synthesis gas is observed. Simultaneously the rector outlet temperature drops to as low as 810 K. It was found that Xenon gives the highest yield and conversion while Helium gives the lowest temperature. Using Xenon inert gas 20 percent reduction in outlet temperature was observed compared to traditional case.

Keywords: Energy savings, Inert gas, Methane, Modeling, Steam reforming

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