Search results for: time series forecasting.

Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

Abstract:

This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification.

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Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

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Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed where located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urban area in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recent years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood events in 2013 as the worst studied case for all those communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed, such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including a deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of the appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as they aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in a short period of 7-10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in an advance period of rainfall with time step of 3-6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used as input data to the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as the water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at the dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfying. The product of rainfall from IDV was fair while compared with observed data. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: Global rainfall, flood forecasting, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system.

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Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

Abstract:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

Abstract:

Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study, climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One of models (Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and input parameters to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 t0 105 cm. Furthermore, the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: Climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, artificial neural network, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Harish Krishnamurthy, Anna Lafontant, Ren Yi

Abstract:

Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.

Keywords: Time-series clustering, feature extraction, hoax prediction, geospatial events.

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Buket Turan Azizoğlu

Abstract:

In switch mode power inverters, small sized inverters can be obtained by increasing the switching frequency. Switching frequency increment causes high driver losses. Also, high dt di and dt dv produced by the switching action creates high Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and Radio Frequency Interference (RFI). In this paper, a series half bridge series resonant inverter circuit is simulated and evaluated practically to demonstrate the turn-on and turn-off conditions during zero or close to zero voltage switching. Also, the reverse recovery current effects of the body diode of the MOSFETs were investigated by operating above and below resonant frequency.

Keywords: Driver losses, Half Bridge series resonant inverter, Zero Voltage Switching

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Authors: J. Wozniak, M. Kostecki, K. Broniszewski, W. Bochniak, A. Olszyna

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The influence of extrusion parameters on surface quality and properties of AA6061+x% vol. SiC (x = 0; 2,5; 5; 7,5;10) composites was discussed in this paper. The averages size of AA6061 and SiC particles were 10.6 μm and 0.42 μm, respectively. Two series of composites (I - compacts were preheated at extrusion temperature through 0.5 h and cooled by water directly after process; II - compacts were preheated through 3 hours and were not cooled) were consolidated via powder metallurgy processing and extruded by KoBo method. High values of density for both series of composites were achieved. Better surface quality was observed for II series of composites. Moreover, for these composites lower (compared to I series) but more uniform strength properties over the cross-section of the bar were noticed. Microstructure and Young-s modulus investigations were made.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, extrusion, metal matrix composites, microstructure

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Authors: Yuki. Akiyama, Hiroaki. Sengoku, Ryosuke. Shibasaki

Abstract:

In this study, the locations and areas of commercial accumulations were detected by using digital yellow page data. An original buffering method that can accurately create polygons of commercial accumulations is proposed in this paper.; by using this method, distribution of commercial accumulations can be easily created and monitored over a wide area. The locations, areas, and time-series changes of commercial accumulations in the South Kanto region can be monitored by integrating polygons of commercial accumulations with the time-series data of digital yellow page data. The circumstances of commercial accumulations were shown to vary according to areas, that is, highly- urbanized regions such as the city center of Tokyo and prefectural capitals, suburban areas near large cities, and suburban and rural areas.

Keywords: Commercial accumulations, Spatio-temporal analysis, Urban monitoring, Yellow page data

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Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

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Authors: Manfred Hartmann, Andreas Graef, Hannes Perko, Christoph Baumgartner, Tilmann Kluge

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In this paper we introduce a novel method for the characterization of synchronziation and coupling effects in multivariate time series that can be used for the analysis of EEG or ECoG signals recorded during epileptic seizures. The method allows to visualize the spatio-temporal evolution of synchronization and coupling effects that are characteristic for epileptic seizures. Similar to other methods proposed for this purpose our method is based on a regression analysis. However, a more general definition of the regression together with an effective channel selection procedure allows to use the method even for time series that are highly correlated, which is commonly the case in EEG/ECoG recordings with large numbers of electrodes. The method was experimentally tested on ECoG recordings of epileptic seizures from patients with temporal lobe epilepsies. A comparision with the results from a independent visual inspection by clinical experts showed an excellent agreement with the patterns obtained with the proposed method.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, regression analysis, seizurepropagation.

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Authors: Ju Young Lee, Jung-Seok Yang, Jaeyoung Choi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper primarily intends to develop GIS interface for estimating sequences of stream-flows at ungauged stations based on known flows at gauged stations. The integrated GIS interface is composed of three major steps. The first, precipitation characteristics using statistical analysis is the procedure for making multiple linear regression equation to get the long term mean daily flow at ungauged stations. The independent variables in regression equation are mean daily flow and drainage area. Traditionally, mean flow data are generated by using Thissen polygon method. However, method for obtaining mean flow data can be selected by user such as Kriging, IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted), Spline methods as well as other traditional methods. At the second, flow duration curve (FDC) is computing at unguaged station by FDCs in gauged stations. Finally, the mean annual daily flow is computed by spatial interpolation algorithm. The third step is to obtain watershed/topographic characteristics. They are the most important factors which govern stream-flows. In summary, the simulated daily flow time series are compared with observed times series. The results using integrated GIS interface are closely similar and are well fitted each other. Also, the relationship between the topographic/watershed characteristics and stream flow time series is highly correlated.

Keywords: Integrated GIS interface, spatial interpolation algorithm, FDC.

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Authors: Narendra Kumar, Sanjiv Kumar

Abstract:

Static VAR System (SVS) is a kind of FACTS device which is used in power system primarily for the purpose of voltage and reactive power control. In this paper presents a systematic approach for designing SVS supplementary controller, which is used to improve the damping of power system oscillation. The combined bus voltage and line current (CBVLC) supplementary controller has been developed and incorporated in the SVS control system located at the middle of the series compensated long transmission line. Damping of torsional stresses due to subsynchronous resonance resulting from series capacitive compensation using CBVLC is investigated in this paper. Simulation results are carried out with MATLAB/Simulink on the IEEE first benchmark model (FBM). The simulation results show that the oscillations are satisfactorily damped out by the SVS supplementary controller. Time domain simulation is performed on power system and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Bus voltage and line current (BVLC), series compensation, sub synchronous resonance (SSR), supplementary controller, eigenvalue investigation.

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Authors: Rajendraprasad Narne, P. C. Panda

Abstract:

In this article, coordinated tuning of power system stabilizer (PSS) with static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC) in multi-machine power system is proposed. The design of proposed coordinated damping controller is formulated as an optimization problem and the controller gains are optimized instantaneously using advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization (AAPSO). The objective function is framed with the inter-area speed deviations of the generators and it is minimized using AAPSO to improve the dynamic stability of power system under severe disturbance. The proposed coordinated controller performance is evaluated under a wide range of system operating conditions with three-phase fault disturbance. Using time domain simulations the damping characteristics of proposed controller is compared with individually tuned PSS, SVC and TCSC controllers. Finally, the real-time simulations are carried out in Opal-RT hardware simulator to synchronize the proposed controller performance in the real world.

Keywords: Advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization, Coordinated design, Power system stabilizer, Real-time implementation, static var compensator, Thyristor controlled series capacitor.

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Authors: Galal H. Senussi, Muamar Benisa, Sanja Vasin

Abstract:

In our business field today, one of the most important issues for any enterprises is cost minimization and profit maximization. Second issue is how to develop a strong and capable model that is able to give us desired forecasting of these two issues. Many researches deal with these issues using different methods. In this study, we developed a model for multi-criteria production program optimization, integrated with Artificial Neural Network.

The prediction of the production cost and profit per unit of a product, dealing with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a great amount of conflict information about production parameters.

Feed-Forward Neural Networks are suitable for generalization, which means that the network will generate a proper output as a result to input it has never seen. Therefore, with small set of examples the network will adjust its weight coefficients so the input will generate a proper output.

This essential characteristic is of the most important abilities enabling this network to be used in variety of problems spreading from engineering to finance etc.

From our results as we will see later, Feed-Forward Neural Networks has a strong ability and capability to map inputs into desired outputs.

Keywords: Project profitability, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithm, Pareto set, Neural Networks.

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Authors: M. Saravi, F. Ashrafi, S.R. Mirrajei

Abstract:

As we know, most differential equations concerning physical phenomenon could not be solved by analytical method. Even if we use Series Method, some times we need an appropriate change of variable, and even when we can, their closed form solution may be so complicated that using it to obtain an image or to examine the structure of the system is impossible. For example, if we consider Schrodinger equation, i.e., We come to a three-term recursion relations, which work with it takes, at least, a little bit time to get a series solution[6]. For this reason we use a change of variable such as or when we consider the orbital angular momentum[1], it will be necessary to solve. As we can observe, working with this equation is tedious. In this paper, after introducing Clenshaw method, which is a kind of Spectral method, we try to solve some of such equations.

Keywords: Chebyshev polynomials, Clenshaw method, ODEs, Spectral methods

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Authors: K. Himaja, T. S. Surendra, S. Tara Kalyani

Abstract:

In this article, Optimal Control for Coordinated Control (COC) of Series Vectorial Compensator (SVeC) and Power System Stabilizer (PSS) in order to damp Low Frequency Oscillations (LFO) is proposed. SVeC is a series Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS) device. The Optimal Control strategy based on state feedback control for coordination of PSS and SVeC controllers under different loading conditions has not been developed. So, the Optimal State Feedback Controller (OSFC) for incorporating of PSS and SVeC controllers in COC manner has been developed in this paper. The performance of the proposed controller is checked through eigenvalue analysis and nonlinear time domain simulation results. The proposed Optimal Controller design for the COC of SVeC and PSS results will be analyzed without controller. The comparative results show that Optimal Controller for COC of SVeC and PSSs improve greatly the system damping LFO than without controller.

Keywords: Coordinated control, damping controller, optimal state feedback controller, power system stabilizer, series vectorial compensator.

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Authors: Chatchai Pesee

Abstract:

This paper examines long-range dependence or longmemory of financial time series on the exchange rate data by the fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The principle of spectral density function in Section 2 is used to find the range of Hurst parameter (H) of the fBm. If 0< H <1/2, then it has a short-range dependence (SRD). It simulates long-memory or long-range dependence (LRD) if 1/2< H <1. The curve of exchange rate data is fBm because of the specific appearance of the Hurst parameter (H). Furthermore, some of the definitions of the fBm, long-range dependence and selfsimilarity are reviewed in Section II as well. Our results indicate that there exists a long-memory or a long-range dependence (LRD) for the exchange rate data in section III. Long-range dependence of the exchange rate data and estimation of the Hurst parameter (H) are discussed in Section IV, while a conclusion is discussed in Section V.

Keywords: Fractional Brownian motion, long-rangedependence, memory, short-range dependence.

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Authors: M. Tarafdar Haque, A.M. Kashtiban

Abstract:

The electric power industry is currently undergoing an unprecedented reform. One of the most exciting and potentially profitable recent developments is increasing usage of artificial intelligence techniques. The intention of this paper is to give an overview of using neural network (NN) techniques in power systems. According to the growth rate of NNs application in some power system subjects, this paper introduce a brief overview in fault diagnosis, security assessment, load forecasting, economic dispatch and harmonic analyzing. Advantages and disadvantages of using NNs in above mentioned subjects and the main challenges in these fields have been explained, too.

Keywords: Neural network, power system, security assessment, fault diagnosis, load forecasting, economic dispatch, harmonic analyzing.

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Authors: S.C.Swain, A.K.Balirsingh, S. Mahapatra, S. Panda

Abstract:

This paper presents a systematic approach for designing Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) based supplementary damping controllers for damping low frequency oscillations in a single-machine infinite-bus power system. The design problem of the proposed controller is formulated as an optimization problem and RCGA is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor speed of the generator is involved; stability performance of the system is improved. Simulation results are presented and compared with a conventional method of tuning the damping controller parameters to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed design approach.

Keywords: Low frequency Oscillations, Phase CompensationTechnique, Real Coded Genetic Algorithm, Single-machine InfiniteBus Power System, Static Synchronous Series Compensator.

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Authors: M. A. Elghorab, A. Abou El-Azm Aly, A. S. Elwetedy, M. A. Kotb

Abstract:

Later marine propeller is the main component of ship propulsion system. For a non-series propeller, it is difficult to indicate the open water marine propeller performance without an experimental study to measure the marine propeller parameters. In the present study, the open water performance of a non-series marine propeller has been carried out experimentally. The geometrical aspects of a commercial non-series marine propeller have been measured for a propeller blade area ratio of 0.3985. The measured propeller performance parameters were the thrust and torque coefficients for different propeller rotational speed and different water channel flow velocity, then the open water performance for the propeller has been plotted. In addition, a direct comparison between the obtained experimental results and a theoretical study of a B-series marine propeller of the same blade area ratio has been carried out. A correction factor has been introduced to apply the operating conditions of the experimental results to that of the theoretical study for the studied marine propeller.

Keywords: Advance speed, marine propeller, open water performance, thrust coefficient, torque coefficient.

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Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

Abstract:

Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: Spatial Information Network, Traffic prediction, Wavelet decomposition, Time series model.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Duong Vannak, Mohd Shahir Liew, Guo Zheng Yew

Abstract:

Data of wave height and wind speed were collected from three existing oil fields in South China Sea – offshore Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak and Sabah regions. Extreme values and other significant data were employed for analysis. The data were recorded from 1999 until 2008. The results show that offshore structures are susceptible to unacceptable motions initiated by wind and waves with worst structural impacts caused by extreme wave heights. To protect offshore structures from damage, there is a need to quantify descriptive statistics and determine spectra envelope of wind speed and wave height, and to ascertain the frequency content of each spectrum for offshore structures in the South China Sea shallow waters using measured time series. The results indicate that the process is nonstationary; it is converted to stationary process by first differencing the time series. For descriptive statistical analysis, both wind speed and wave height have significant influence on the offshore structure during the northeast monsoon with high mean wind speed of 13.5195 knots (
= 6.3566 knots) and the high mean wave height of 2.3597 m (
= 0.8690 m). Through observation of the spectra, there is no clear dominant peak and the peaks fluctuate randomly. Each wind speed spectrum and wave height spectrum has its individual identifiable pattern. The wind speed spectrum tends to grow gradually at the lower frequency range and increasing till it doubles at the higher frequency range with the mean peak frequency range of 0.4104 Hz to 0.4721 Hz, while the wave height tends to grow drastically at the low frequency range, which then fluctuates and decreases slightly at the high frequency range with the mean peak frequency range of 0.2911 Hz to 0.3425 Hz.

Keywords: Metocean, Offshore Engineering, Time Series, Descriptive Statistics, Autospectral Density Function, Wind, Wave.

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Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

Abstract:

Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

Abstract:

The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: Bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments.

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Authors: Rudolf Csikja, Janos Toth

Abstract:

Methods to detect and localize time singularities of polynomial and quasi-polynomial ordinary differential equations are systematically presented and developed. They are applied to examples taken form different fields of applications and they are also compared to better known methods such as those based on the existence of linear first integrals or Lyapunov functions.

Keywords: blow up, finite escape time, polynomial ODE, singularity, Lotka–Volterra equation, Painleve analysis, Ψ-series, global existence

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

Abstract:

Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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