Search results for: Demand Uncertainty.

Authors: Mohamed Tarek Khadir, Damien Fay, Ahmed Boughrira

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Short term electricity demand forecasts are required by power utilities for efficient operation of the power grid. In a competitive market environment, suppliers and large consumers also require short term forecasts in order to estimate their energy requirements in advance. Electricity demand is influenced (among other things) by the day of the week, the time of year and special periods and/or days such as Ramadhan, all of which must be identified prior to modelling. This identification, known as day-type identification, must be included in the modelling stage either by segmenting the data and modelling each day-type separately or by including the day-type as an input. Day-type identification is the main focus of this paper. A Kohonen map is employed to identify the separate day-types in Algerian data.

Keywords: Day type identification, electricity Load, Kohonenmaps, load forecasting.

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Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.

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Authors: Chutarat Boontho

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The purposes of this study were as follows to evaluate the economic value of Phu Kradueng National Park by the travel cost method (TCM) and the contingent valuation method (CVM) and to estimate the demand for traveling and the willingness to pay. The data for this study were collected by conducting two large scale surveys on users and non-users. A total of 1,016 users and 1,034 non-users were interviewed. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis, logistic regression model and the consumer surplus (CS) was the integral of demand function for trips. The survey found, were as follows: 1)Using the travel cost method which provides an estimate of direct benefits to park users, we found that visitors- total willingness to pay per visit was 2,284.57 bath, of which 958.29 bath was travel cost, 1,129.82 bath was expenditure for accommodation, food, and services, and 166.66 bath was consumer surplus or the visitors -net gain or satisfaction from the visit (the integral of demand function for trips). 2) Thai visitors to Phu Kradueng National Park were further willing to pay an average of 646.84 bath per head per year to ensure the continued existence of Phu Kradueng National Park and to preserve their option to use it in the future. 3) Thai non-visitors, on the other hand, are willing to pay an average of 212.61 bath per head per year for the option and existence value provided by the Park. 4) The total economic value of Phu Kradueng National Park to Thai visitors and non-visitors taken together stands today at 9,249.55 million bath per year. 5) The users- average willingness to pay for access to Phu Kradueng National Park rises from 40 bath to 84.66 bath per head per trip for improved services such as road improvement, increased cleanliness, and upgraded information. This paper was needed to investigate of the potential market demand for bio prospecting in Phu Kradueng national Park and to investigate how a larger share of the economic benefits of tourism could be distributed income to the local residents.

Keywords: Contingent Valuation Method, Travel Cost Method, Consumer surplus.

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Authors: Tuong Huan Nguyen, Quoc Bao Vo, Hai L. Vu

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In this paper we propose a new traffic simulation package, TDMSim, which supports both macroscopic and microscopic simulation on free-flowing and regulated traffic systems. Both simulators are based on travel demands, which specify the numbers of vehicles departing from origins to arrive at different destinations. The microscopic simulator implements the carfollowing model given the pre-defined routes of the vehicles but also supports the rerouting of vehicles. We also propose a macroscopic simulator which is built in integration with the microscopic simulator to allow the simulation to be scaled for larger networks without sacrificing the precision achievable through the microscopic simulator. The macroscopic simulator also enables the reuse of previous simulation results when simulating traffic on the same networks at later time. Validations have been conducted to show the correctness of both simulators.

Keywords: Macroscopic, Microscopic, Simulation, Traffic, Travel demand, Fundamental diagrams.

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Authors: Walid K. M. Bani Salameh, Hesham Ahmad, Mohammad Al-Shannag

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In Jordan having deficit atmospheric precipitation, an increase in water demand occurs during summer months. Jordan can be regarded with a relatively high potential for wastewater recycling and reuse. The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the removal of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) for olive mill wastewater (OMW) by electrocoagulation (EC) process. In the combination of electrocoagulation by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes, the optimum working pH was found to be around 6. Results indicated that the electrocoagulation process allowed removal of TSS and COD of about 82.5% and 47.5%, respectively at 45 mA/cm2 after 70 minutes by using coupled iron–aluminum electrodes. It was demonstrated that the maximum TSS and COD removals were obtained at some optimum experimental parameters for current density, pH, and reaction time.

Keywords: Olive Mill Wastewater, Electrode, Electrocoagulation (EC), TSS, COD.

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Authors: Cauvery N. K., K. V. Viswanatha

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Mobile Ad hoc network consists of a set of mobile nodes. It is a dynamic network which does not have fixed topology. This network does not have any infrastructure or central administration, hence it is called infrastructure-less network. The change in topology makes the route from source to destination as dynamic fixed and changes with respect to time. The nature of network requires the algorithm to perform route discovery, maintain route and detect failure along the path between two nodes [1]. This paper presents the enhancements of ARA [2] to improve the performance of routing algorithm. ARA [2] finds route between nodes in mobile ad-hoc network. The algorithm is on-demand source initiated routing algorithm. This is based on the principles of swarm intelligence. The algorithm is adaptive, scalable and favors load balancing. The improvements suggested in this paper are handling of loss ants and resource reservation.

Keywords: Ad hoc networks, On-demand routing, Swarmintelligence.

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Authors: Ahmed Elsayed, Andrew Shea, Nicolas Kelly, John Allison

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In northern European climates, domestic space heating and hot water represents a significant proportion of total primary total primary energy use and meeting these demands from a national electricity grid network supplied by renewable energy sources provides an opportunity for a significant reduction in EU CO₂ emissions. However, in order to adapt to the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation and to avoid co-incident peak electricity usage from consumers that may exceed current capacity, the demand for heat must be decoupled from its generation. Storage of heat within the fabric of dwellings for use some hours, or days, later provides a route to complete decoupling of demand from supply and facilitates the greatly increased use of renewable energy generation into a local or national electricity network. The integration of thermal energy storage into the building fabric for retrieval at a later time requires much evaluation of the many competing thermal, physical, and practical considerations such as the profile and magnitude of heat demand, the duration of storage, charging and discharging rate, storage media, space allocation, etc. In this paper, the authors report investigations of thermal storage in building fabric using concrete material and present an evaluation of several factors that impact upon performance including heating pipe layout, heating fluid flow velocity, storage geometry, thermo-physical material properties, and also present an investigation of alternative storage materials and alternative heat transfer fluids. Reducing the heating pipe spacing from 200 mm to 100 mm enhances the stored energy by 25% and high-performance Vacuum Insulation results in heat loss flux of less than 3 W/m², compared to 22 W/m² for the more conventional EPS insulation. Dense concrete achieved the greatest storage capacity, relative to medium and light-weight alternatives, although a material thickness of 100 mm required more than 5 hours to charge fully. Layers of 25 mm and 50 mm thickness can be charged in 2 hours, or less, facilitating a fast response that could, aggregated across multiple dwellings, provide significant and valuable reduction in demand from grid-generated electricity in expected periods of high demand and potentially eliminate the need for additional new generating capacity from conventional sources such as gas, coal, or nuclear.

Keywords: Fabric integrated thermal storage, FITS, demand side management, energy storage, load shifting, renewable energy integration.

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Authors: Yamamah Abdulrazaq, Lahieb A. Abrahim, Samuel E. Davies, Iain Shewring

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Electric water heater (EWH) is a powerful appliance that uses electricity in residential, commercial, and industrial settings, and the ability to control them properly will result in cost savings and the prevention of blackouts on the national grid. This article discusses the usage of timers in EWH control strategies for demand-side management (DSM). To the authors' knowledge, there is no systematic mapping review focusing on the utilization of EWH control strategies in DSM has yet been conducted. Consequently, the purpose of this research is to identify and examine main papers exploring EWH procedures in DSM by quantifying and categorizing information with regard to publication year and source, kind of methods, and source of data for monitoring control techniques. In order to answer the research questions, a total of 31 publications published between 1999 and 2023 were selected depending on specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The data indicate that direct load control (DLC) has been somewhat more prevalent than indirect load control (ILC). Additionally, the mix method is much lower than the other techniques, and the proportion of real-time data (RTD) to non-real-time data (NRTD) is about equal.

Keywords: Demand side management, direct load control, electric water heater, indirect load control, non-real-time data, real time data.

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Authors: Hamed Sabahno

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In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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Authors: Livinus A. Obasi, Augustine N. Ajah

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Biotechnology in recent times has tried to develop a mechanism whereby sustainable electricity can be generated by the activity of microorganisms on waste and renewable biomass (often regarded as “negative value”) in a device called microbial fuel cell, MFC. In this paper, we established how the biocatalytic activities of bacteria on organic matter (substrates) produced some electrons with the associated removal of some water pollution parameters; Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) to the tune of 77.2% and 88.3% respectively from a petrochemical sanitary wastewater. The electricity generation was possible by conditioning the bacteria to operate anaerobically in one chamber referred to as the anode while the electrons are transferred to the fully aerated counter chamber containing the cathode. Power densities ranging from 12.83 mW/m² to 966.66 mW/m² were achieved using a dual-chamber starch membrane MFC experimental set-up. The maximum power density obtained in this research shows an improvement in the use of low cost MFC set up to achieve power production. Also, the level of organic matter removal from the sanitary waste water by the operation of this device clearly demonstrates its potential benefit in achieving an improved benign environment. The beauty of the MFCs is their potential utility in areas lacking electrical infrastructures like in most developing countries.

Keywords: Bioelectricity, chemical oxygen demand, microbial fuel cell, sanitary wastewater, wheat starch.

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Authors: Sheena Mathew, K. Poulose Jacob

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Extensive use of the Internet coupled with the marvelous growth in e-commerce and m-commerce has created a huge demand for information security. The Secure Socket Layer (SSL) protocol is the most widely used security protocol in the Internet which meets this demand. It provides protection against eaves droppings, tampering and forgery. The cryptographic algorithms RC4 and HMAC have been in use for achieving security services like confidentiality and authentication in the SSL. But recent attacks against RC4 and HMAC have raised questions in the confidence on these algorithms. Hence two novel cryptographic algorithms MAJE4 and MACJER-320 have been proposed as substitutes for them. The focus of this work is to demonstrate the performance of these new algorithms and suggest them as dependable alternatives to satisfy the need of security services in SSL. The performance evaluation has been done by using practical implementation method.

Keywords: Confidentiality, HMAC, Integrity, MACJER-320, MAJE4, RC4, Secure Socket Layer

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Authors: Xiangbin Zhu

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Advances in computing applications in recent years have prompted the demand for more flexible scheduling models for QoS demand. Moreover, in practical applications, partly violated temporal constraints can be tolerated if the violation meets certain distribution. So we need extend the traditional Liu and Lanland model to adapt to these circumstances. There are two extensions, which are the (m, k)-firm model and Window-Constrained model. This paper researches on weakly hard real-time constraints and their combination to support QoS. The fact that a practical application can tolerate some violations of temporal constraint under certain distribution is employed to support adaptive QoS on the open real-time system. The experiment results show these approaches are effective compared to traditional scheduling algorithms.

Keywords: Weakly Hard Real-Time, Real-Time, Scheduling, Quality of Service.

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Salek Faramarzi, Touraj Taghikhany

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In this paper, seismic fragility assessment of a recently developed hybrid structural system, known as the strongback system (SBS) is investigated. In this system, to mitigate the occurrence of the soft-story mechanism and improve the distribution of story drifts over the height of the structure, an elastic vertical truss is formed. The strengthened members of the braced span are designed to remain substantially elastic during levels of excitation where soft-story mechanisms are likely to occur and impose a nearly uniform story drift distribution. Due to the distinctive characteristics of near-field ground motions, it seems to be necessary to study the effect of these records on seismic performance of the SBS. To this end, a set of 56 near-field ground motion records suggested by FEMA P695 methodology is used. For fragility assessment, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out in OpenSEES based on the recommended procedure in HAZUS technical manual. Four damage states including slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage (collapse) are considered. To evaluate each damage state, inter-story drift ratio and floor acceleration are implemented as engineering demand parameters. Further, to extend the evaluation of the collapse state of the system, a different collapse criterion suggested in FEMA P695 is applied. It is concluded that SBS can significantly increase the collapse capacity and consequently decrease the collapse risk of the structure during its life time. Comparing the observing mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceedance of each damage state against the allowable values presented in performance-based design methods, it is found that using the elastic vertical truss, improves the structural response effectively.

Keywords: Strongback System, Near-fault, Seismic fragility, Uncertainty, IDA, Probabilistic performance assessment.

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Authors: Hyoup-Sang Yoon

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Video-on-demand (VOD) is designed by using content delivery networks (CDN) to minimize the overall operational cost and to maximize scalability. Estimation of the viewing pattern (i.e., the relationship between the number of viewings and the ranking of VOD contents) plays an important role in minimizing the total operational cost and maximizing the performance of the VOD systems. In this paper, we have analyzed a large body of commercial VOD viewing data and found that the viewing rank distribution fits well with the parabolic fractal distribution. The weighted linear model fitting function is used to estimate the parameters (coefficients) of the parabolic fractal distribution. This paper presents an analytical basis for designing an optimal hierarchical VOD contents distribution system in terms of its cost and performance.

Keywords: VOD, CDN, parabolic fractal distribution, viewing rank, weighted linear model fitting

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Authors: R. Prabha, N. Ramaraj

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Routing in adhoc networks is a challenge as nodes are mobile, and links are constantly created and broken. Present ondemand adhoc routing algorithms initiate route discovery after a path breaks, incurring significant cost to detect disconnection and establish a new route. Specifically, when a path is about to be broken, the source is warned of the likelihood of a disconnection. The source then initiates path discovery early, avoiding disconnection totally. A path is considered about to break when link availability decreases. This study modifies Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV) so that route handoff occurs through link availability estimation.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Routing, Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV), Link Availability.

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Authors: Nasim Shatarat, Adel Assaf

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This paper presents the results of an analytical study on the seismic response of a Multi-Span-Simply-Supported precast bridge in Washington State. The bridge was built in the early 1960's along Interstate 5 and was widened the first time in 1979 and the second time in 2001. The primary objective of this research project is to determine the seismic vulnerability of the bridge in order to develop the required retrofit measure. The seismic vulnerability of the bridge is evaluated using two seismic evaluation methods presented in the FHWA Seismic Retrofitting Manual for Highway Bridges, Method C and Method D2. The results of the seismic analyses demonstrate that Method C and Method D2 vary markedly in terms of the information they provide to the bridge designer regarding the vulnerability of the bridge columns.

Keywords: Bridges, Capacity, Demand, Seismic, Static pushover, Retrofit.

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Authors: K.C. Deshmukh, P.G. Khot, Nikhil

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In the literature of information theory, there is necessity for comparing the different measures of fuzzy entropy and this consequently, gives rise to the need for normalizing measures of fuzzy entropy. In this paper, we have discussed this need and hence developed some normalized measures of fuzzy entropy. It is also desirable to maximize entropy and to minimize directed divergence or distance. Keeping in mind this idea, we have explained the method of optimizing different measures of fuzzy entropy.

Keywords: Fuzzy set, Uncertainty, Fuzzy entropy, Normalization, Membership function

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Authors: M. C. Venter, G. Hitge, S. C. Krygsman, J. Thiart

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For decades, South Africa has been planning transportation systems from a supply, rather than a demand side, perspective. In terms of parking, this relates to requiring the minimum parking provision that is enforced by city officials. Newer insight is starting to indicate that South Africa needs to re-think this philosophy in light of a new policy environment that desires a different outcome. Urban policies have shifted from reliance on the private car for access, to employing a wide range of alternative modes. Car dominated travel is influenced by various parameters, of which the availability and location of parking plays a significant role. The question is therefore, what is the right strategy to achieve the desired transport outcomes for SA. The focus of this paper is used to assess this issue with regard to parking provision, and specifically at a tertiary institution. A parking audit was conducted at the Stellenbosch campus of Stellenbosch University, monitoring occupancy at all 60 parking areas, every hour during business hours over a five-day period. The data from this survey was compared with the prescribed number of parking bays according to the Stellenbosch Municipality zoning scheme (requiring a minimum of 0.4 bays per student). The analysis shows that by providing 0.09 bays per student, the maximum total daily occupation of all the parking areas did not exceed an 80% occupation rate. It is concluded that the prevailing parking standards are not supportive of the new urban and transport policy environment, but that it is extremely conservative from a practical demand point of view.

Keywords: Parking provision, parking requirements, travel behaviour, travel demand management.

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Authors: K. M. Shahot. I. A. Ekhmaj

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The research study is carried out to determine the efficiency of the Biofilm sewage treatment plant which is located at the Engineering Complex-s. Wastewater analyses have been carried out at the Environmental Engineering laboratory to study the six parameters: Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOD, Chemical Oxygen Demand COD l, and Total Suspended Solids TSS, Ammoniac Nitrogen NH3-N and Phosphorous P which have been selected to determine the wastewater quality. The plant was designed to treat 750 Pe (population equivalent) at hydraulic retention time of 5 hours in the aerobic zone. The results show that Biofilm wastewater treatment plant was able to treat sewage successfully at different flow condition. The discharge has fulfilled the Malaysia Environmental of Standard A water quality. The achieved BOD removal is more than 85%, COD is more than 80%, TSS is more than 80%, NH3-N is more than 70%, and P was more than 70%. The Biofilm system provides a very efficient process for sewage treatment and it is compact in structure thus minimizes the required land area.

Keywords: Sewage, Bio film, Cosmo-Ball, Activated sludge

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Authors: Vojko Kilar, Boris Azinović, David Koren

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Recently, an increasing trend of passive and low-energy buildings transferring form non earthquake-prone to earthquake-prone regions has thrown out the question about the seismic safety of such buildings. The paper describes the most commonly used thermal insulating materials and the special details, which could be critical from the point of view of earthquake resistance. The most critical appeared to be the cases of buildings founded on the RC foundation slab lying on a thermal insulation (TI) layer made of extruded polystyrene (XPS). It was pointed out that in such cases the seismic response of such buildings might differ to response of their fixed based counterparts. The main parameters that need special designers’ attention are: the building’s lateral top displacement, the ductility demand of the superstructure, the foundation friction coefficient demand, the maximum compressive stress in the TI layer and the percentage of the uplifted foundation. The analyses have shown that the potentially negative influences of inserting the TI under the foundation slab could be expected only for slender high-rise buildings subjected to severe earthquakes. Oppositely it was demonstrated for the foundation friction coefficient demand which could exceed the capacity value yet in the case of low-rise buildings subjected to moderate earthquakes. Some suggestions to prevent the horizontal shifts are also given.

Keywords: Earthquake Response, Extruded Polystyrene (XPS), Low-Energy Buildings, Foundations on Thermal Insulation Layer.

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Authors: Kashyap L. Mokariya, Varsha A. Shah, Makarand M. Lokhande

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As the current status and growth of Indian automobile industry is remarkable, transportation sectors are the main concern in terms of energy security and climate change. Due to rising demand of fuel and its dependency on foreign countries that affects the GDP of nation, suggests that penetration of electrical vehicle will increase in near future. So in this context analysis is done if the 10 percent of conventional vehicles including cars, three wheelers and two wheelers becomes electrical vehicles in near future which is also a part of Nations Electric Mobility Mission Plan then the saving which improves the nation’s economy is analyzed in detail. Whether the Indian electricity grid is capable of taking this load with current generation and demand all over the country is also analyzed in detail. Current situation of Indian grid is analyzed and how the gap between generation and demand can be reduced is discussed in terms of increasing generation capacity and energy conservation measures. Electrical energy conservation measures in Industry and especially in rural areas have been analyzed to improve performance of Indian electricity grid in context of electrical vehicle penetration in near future. Author was a part of Vishvakarma yojna in which energy losses were measured in 255 villages of Gujarat and solutions were suggested to mitigate them and corresponding reports was submitted to the authorities of Gujarat government.

Keywords: Vehicle penetration, feasibility, Energy conservation, future grid, Energy security, Automatic pf controller.

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: Demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design.

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Authors: Badr M. Alshammari, Mohamed A. El-Kady

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The paper presents new results of a recent industry supported research and development study in which an efficient framework for evaluating practical and meaningful power system reliability and quality indices was applied. The system-wide integrated performance indices are capable of addressing and revealing areas of deficiencies and bottlenecks as well as redundancies in the composite generation-transmission-demand structure of large-scale power grids. The technique utilizes a linear programming formulation, which simulates practical operating actions and offers a general and comprehensive framework to assess the harmony and compatibility of generation, transmission and demand in a power system. Practical applications to a reduced system model as well as a portion of the Saudi power grid are also presented in the paper for demonstration purposes.

Keywords: Power systems, Linear programming, Quality assessment, Reliability.

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Authors: Chang, Wei-Chen

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The purpose of this study is to research on thoughts transmitted from virtual fitting-room and to deduce discussion in an auxiliary narrative way. The research structure is based on 3D virtual fitting-room as the research subject. Initially, we will discuss the principles of narrate study, User Demand and so on by using a narrative design pattern to transmit their objective indications of “people-situation-reason-object", etc, and then to analyze the virtual fitting-room examples that are able to provide a new thinking for designers who engaged in clothing related industry – which comes in “story telling" and “user-centered design" forms. Clothing designs are not just to cover up the body to keep warm but to draw closer to people-s demand physiologically and psychologically through interactive designs so as to achieve cognition between people and environment. In the “outside" goal of clothing-s functional designs, we use tribal group-s behavior characteristics to “transform" the existing personal cultural stories, and “reform" them to design appropriate interactive products. Synthesizing the above matters, apart from being able to regard “narrate" as a kind of functional thinking process, we are also able to regard it as a kind of choice, arrangement and an activity of story expression, allowing interactive design-s spirit, product characteristics and experience ideas be transmitted to target tribal group in a visual image performance method. It is a far more confident and innovative attempt, and meanwhile, able to achieve entertainment, joyful and so forth fundamental interactive transmissions. Therefore, this study takes “user-centered design" thinking as a basis to establish a set of clothing designs with interactive experience patterns and to assist designers to examine the five sensual feeling of interactive demands in order to initiate a new value in textile industry.

Keywords: Virtual Fitting-room, Interactive Design, User Demand Evaluation, Intelligent Systems.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Yu-Ping Liao

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Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, models with different social-economic variables, which are oil price, GDP per capita, CPI and economic growth rate, are compared. From the results, the model with the oil price is better than models with the other social-economic variables.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competitive model, social-economic variables, oil price.

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Authors: Robert H. Crawford, André Stephan

Abstract:

Certifications such as the Passive House Standard aim to reduce the final space heating energy demand of residential buildings. Space conditioning, notably heating, is responsible for nearly 70% of final residential energy consumption in Europe. There is therefore significant scope for the reduction of energy consumption through improvements to the energy efficiency of residential buildings. However, these certifications totally overlook the energy embodied in the building materials used to achieve this greater operational energy efficiency. The large amount of insulation and the triple-glazed high efficiency windows require a significant amount of energy to manufacture. While some previous studies have assessed the life cycle energy demand of passive houses, including their embodied energy, these rely on incomplete assessment techniques which greatly underestimate embodied energy and can lead to misleading conclusions. This paper analyses the embodied and operational energy demands of a case study passive house using a comprehensive hybrid analysis technique to quantify embodied energy. Results show that the embodied energy is much more significant than previously thought. Also, compared to a standard house with the same geometry, structure, finishes and number of people, a passive house can use more energy over 80 years, mainly due to the additional materials required. Current building energy efficiency certifications should widen their system boundaries to include embodied energy in order to reduce the life cycle energy demand of residential buildings.

Keywords: Embodied energy, Hybrid analysis, Life cycle energy analysis, Passive house.

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Authors: I. Arockiarani

Abstract:

The focus of the paper is to furnish the entropy measure for a neutrosophic set and neutrosophic soft set which is a measure of uncertainty and it permeates discourse and system. Various characterization of entropy measures are derived. Further we exemplify this concept by applying entropy in various real time decision making problems.

Keywords: Entropy measure, Hausdorff distance, neutrosophic set, soft set.

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Authors: Jagdeep Singh, Prem Singh

Abstract:

Milk is considered as an essential and complete food. The present study was conducted at Milk Plant Mohali especially in reference to the procurement section where the cash inflow was maximum, with the objective to achieve higher productivity and reduce wastage of milk. In milk plant it was observed that during the month of Jan-2014 to March-2014 the average procurement of milk was Rs. 4, 19, 361 liter per month and cost of procurement of milk is Rs 35/- per liter. The total cost of procurement thereby equal to Rs. 1crore 46 lakh per month, but there was mismatch in procurementproduction of milk, which leads to an average loss of Rs. 12, 94, 405 per month. To solve the procurement-production problem Quality Control Tools like brainstorming, Flow Chart, Cause effect diagram and Pareto analysis are applied wherever applicable. With the successful implementation of Quality Control tools an average saving of Rs. 4, 59, 445 per month is done.

Keywords: Milk, Procurement-demand, quality control tools.

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Authors: Abubakar Uba Ibrahim, Ibrahim Haruna Shanono

Abstract:

Smart metering and demand response are gaining ground in industrial and residential applications. Smart Appliances have been given concern towards achieving Smart home. The success of Smart grid development relies on the successful implementation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in power sector. Smart Appliances have been the technology under development and many new contributions to its realization have been reported in the last few years. The role of ICT here is to capture data in real time, thereby allowing bi-directional flow of information/data between producing and utilization point; that lead a way for the attainment of Smart appliances where home appliances can communicate between themselves and provide a self-control (switch on and off) using the signal (information) obtained from the grid. This paper depicts the background on ICT for smart appliances paying a particular attention to the current technology and identifying the future ICT trends for load monitoring through which smart appliances can be achieved to facilitate an efficient smart home system which promote demand response program. This paper grouped and reviewed the recent contributions, in order to establish the current state of the art and trends of the technology, so that the reader can be provided with a comprehensive and insightful review of where ICT for smart appliances stands and is heading to. The paper also presents a brief overview of communication types, and then narrowed the discussion to the load monitoring (Non-intrusive Appliances Load Monitoring ‘NALM’). Finally, some future trends and challenges in the further development of the ICT framework are discussed to motivate future contributions that address open problems and explore new possibilities.

Keywords: Communication technology between appliances, demand response, load monitoring, smart appliances and smart grid.

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