Search results for: Project risk management
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4323

Search results for: Project risk management

2103 Comparing Spontaneous Hydrolysis Rates of Activated Models of DNA and RNA

Authors: Mohamed S. Sasi, Adel M. Mlitan, Abdulfattah M. Alkherraz

Abstract:

This research project aims to investigate difference in relative rates concerning phosphoryl transfer relevant to biological catalysis of DNA and RNA in the pH-independent reactions. Activated Models of DNA and RNA for alkyl-aryl phosphate diesters (with 4-nitrophenyl as a good leaving group) have successfully been prepared to gather kinetic parameters. Eyring plots for the pH– independent hydrolysis of 1 and 2 were established at different temperatures in the range 100–160 °C. These measurements have been used to provide a better estimate for the difference in relative rates between the reactivity of DNA and RNA cleavage. Eyring plot gave an extrapolated rate of kH2O = 1 × 10-10 s -1 for 1 (RNA model) and 2 (DNA model) at 25°C. Comparing the reactivity of RNA model and DNA model shows that the difference in relative rates in the pH-independent reactions is surprisingly very similar at 25°. This allows us to obtain chemical insights into how biological catalysts such as enzymes may have evolved to perform their current functions.

Keywords: DNA & RNA Models, Relative Rates, Reactivity.

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2102 Seismic Analysis of URM Buildings in S. Africa

Authors: Trevor N. Haas, Thomas van der Kolf

Abstract:

South Africa has some regions which are susceptible to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between 0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a construction material for 2 to 5 storey buildings in underprivileged areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed by applying seven earthquake time-histories, which can be expected to occur in South Africa using a finite element approach. Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane stiffness of the URM. The results indicated that tensile cracking of the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. It is concluded that URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that connection failure must be investigated further.

Keywords: URM, Seismic Analysis, FEM.

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2101 Investigating Financial Literacy among Emiratis

Authors: Ashraf Khalil, Salam Abdallah, Khalil Al-hilo, Ebere Iroadu

Abstract:

Financial literacy is one of the key factors needed in making informed financial decisions. As businesses continue to be more profit driven, more financial and economic intrigues arise that continue to put individuals at the risk of spending more and more without considering the short term and long term effects. We conducted a study to assess financial literacy and financial decision making among Emiratis. Our results show that financial literacy is lacking among Emiratis. Also, almost half of respondents owe loans to other peoples and 1/5 of them have bank loans. We expect that the outcome of this research will be useful for designing educational programs and policies to promote financial planning and security among Emiratis. We also posit that deeper and more informed understanding of this problem is a precursor for developing effective financial education programs with the aim of improving financial decision- making among Emiratis.

Keywords: Financial literacy, loans, financial planning, Emiratis.

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2100 Unlocking Tourism Value through a Tourist Experience Management Paradigm

Authors: Siphiwe P. Mandina, Tinashe Shamuyashe

Abstract:

Tourism has become a topical issue amongst academics and practitioners due to its potential to contribute significantly towards an economy’s GDP. The problem underpinning this research is the fact that the major attraction, Victoria Falls, is being marketed in neighboring countries like South Africa, Botswana and Zambia with tour operators providing just day trips to the Victoria Falls. This has deprived Zimbabwe of income from tourism with tourists making day trips and actually not spending nights in Zimbabwe. This therefore calls for cutting edge marketing strategies that are superior to or inimitable by competing nations such as South Africa and Zambia. This study proposes a shift towards an experience management paradigm in the tourism sector. A qualitative research was adopted for this study, and findings of this study were generalized across different tourism contexts, therefore making the survey based research design more appropriate. The target population for this study is tourists visiting Zimbabwe over the period 2016 and ZTA visitor database acquired from the Department of Immigration will form the sampling frame for the purposes of this study.

Keywords: Competitiveness, tourist arrivals, tourist experience, Zimbabwe.

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2099 Effects of Gamma Irradiation on Chemical and Antioxidant Properties of Iranian Native Fresh Barberry Fruit

Authors: Samira Berenji Ardestani, Hamid Reza Akhavan

Abstract:

Gamma irradiation greatly reduces the potential microbiological risk of fresh fruits, resulting in improved microbial safety as well as extending their shelf life. The effects of 0.5-2 kGy gamma doses on some physicochemical, microbial and sensory properties of fresh barberry fruits (Berberis vulgaris) during refrigerated storage for 40 days were evaluated. The total anthocyanin and total phenolic contents of barberry fruits decreased in a dose-dependent manner immediately after irradiation and after subsequent storage. In general, it is recommended that, according to the effect of gamma radiation on physicochemical, microbial and sensorial characteristics, doses of 1.25-2 kGy could be used.

Keywords: Antioxidant property, barberry fruit, chemical properties, gamma irradiation.

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2098 Significant Role Analysis of Transmission Control Protocols in 4G Cellular Systems

Authors: Ghassan A. Abed, Bayan M. Sabbar

Abstract:

The society of 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is completed developing Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-Advanced) systems as a standard 4G cellular system. This generation goals to produce conditions for a new radio-access technology geared to higher data rates, low latency, and better spectral efficiency. LTE-Advanced is an evolutionary step in the continuing development of LTE where the description in this article is based on LTE release 10. This paper provides a model of the traffic links of 4G system represented by LTE-Advanced system with the effect of the Transmission Control Protocols (TCP) and Stream Control Transmission Protocol (SCTP) in term of throughput and packet loss. Furthermore, the article presents the investigation and the analysis the behavior of SCTP and TCP variants over the 4G cellular systems. The traffic model and the scenario of the simulation developed using the network simulator NS-2 using different TCP source variants.

Keywords: LTE-Advanced, LTE, SCTP, TCP, 4G, NS-2.

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2097 An Evaluation Framework for Participation: The VAAs Case Study

Authors: Luis Teran, Aleksandar Drobnjak

Abstract:

The number of electronic participation (eParticipation) projects introduced by different governments and international organisations is considerably high and increasing. In order to have an overview of the development of these projects, various evaluation frameworks have been proposed. In this paper, a five-level participation model, which takes into account the advantages of the Social Web or Web 2.0, together with a quantitative approach for the evaluation of eParticipation projects is presented. Each participation level is evaluated independently, taking into account three main components: Web evolution, media richness, and communication channels. This paper presents the evaluation of a number of existing Voting Advice Applications (VAAs). The results provide an overview of the main features implemented by each project, their strengths and weaknesses, and the participation levels reached.

Keywords: Evaluation Framework, eParticipation, e-Participation, Electronic Participation, eDemocracy, e-Democracy, Electronic Democracy, Voting Advice Applications, VAAs.

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2096 Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture in Victoria’s Food Bowl: Optimizing Productivity with the use of Decision-Support Tools

Authors: M. Johnson, R. Faggian, V. Sposito

Abstract:

A participatory and engaged approach is key in connecting agricultural managers to sustainable agricultural systems to support and optimize production in Victoria’s food bowl. A sustainable intensification (SI) approach is well documented globally, but participation rates amongst Victorian farmers is fragmentary, and key outcomes and implementation strategies are poorly understood. Improvement in decision-support management tools and a greater understanding of the productivity gains available upon implementation of SI is necessary. This paper reviews the current understanding and uptake of SI practices amongst farmers in one of Victoria’s premier food producing regions, the Goulburn Broken; and it spatially analyses the potential for this region to adapt to climate change and optimize food production. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) approach is taken to develop an interactive decision-support tool that can be accessible to on-ground agricultural managers. The tool encompasses multiple criteria analysis (MCA) that identifies factors during the construction phase of the tool, using expert witnesses and regional knowledge, framed within an Analytical Hierarchy Process. Given the complexities of the interrelations between each of the key outcomes, this participatory approach, in which local realities and factors inform the key outcomes and help to strategies for a particular region, results in a robust strategy for sustainably intensifying production in key food producing regions. The creation of an interactive, locally embedded, decision-support management and education tool can help to close the gap between farmer knowledge and production, increase on-farm adoption of sustainable farming strategies and techniques, and optimize farm productivity.

Keywords: Agriculture, decision-support management tools, GIS, sustainable intensification.

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2095 An Analysis of the Strategies Employed to Curate, Conserve and Digitize the Timbuktu Manuscripts

Authors: F. Saptouw

Abstract:

This paper briefly reviews the range of curatorial interventions made to preserve and display the Timbuktu Manuscripts. The government of South Africa and Mali collaborated to preserve the manuscripts, and brief notes will be presented about the value of archives in those specific spaces. The research initiatives of the Tombouctou Manuscripts Project, based at the University of Cape Town, feature prominently in the text. A brief overview of the history of the archive will be presented and its preservation as a key turning point in curating the intellectual history of the continent. ­­­The strategies of preservation, curation, publication and digitization are presented as complimentary interventions. Each materialization of the manuscripts contributes something significant; the complexity of the contribution is dependent primarily on the format of presentation. This integrated reading of the manuscripts is presented as a means to gain a more nuanced understanding of the past, which greatly surpasses how much information would be gleaned from relying on a single media format.

Keywords: Archive, curatorship, cultural heritage, museum practice, Timbuktu manuscripts.

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2094 Application of Artificial Neural Network to Classification Surface Water Quality

Authors: S. Wechmongkhonkon, N.Poomtong, S. Areerachakul

Abstract:

Water quality is a subject of ongoing concern. Deterioration of water quality has initiated serious management efforts in many countries. This study endeavors to automatically classify water quality. The water quality classes are evaluated using 6 factor indices. These factors are pH value (pH), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Nitrate Nitrogen (NO3N), Ammonia Nitrogen (NH3N) and Total Coliform (TColiform). The methodology involves applying data mining techniques using multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models. The data consisted of 11 sites of canals in Dusit district in Bangkok, Thailand. The data is obtained from the Department of Drainage and Sewerage Bangkok Metropolitan Administration during 2007-2011. The results of multilayer perceptron neural network exhibit a high accuracy multilayer perception rate at 96.52% in classifying the water quality of Dusit district canal in Bangkok Subsequently, this encouraging result could be applied with plan and management source of water quality.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, surface water quality

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2093 Machine Learning Development Audit Framework: Assessment and Inspection of Risk and Quality of Data, Model and Development Process

Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

Abstract:

The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: Audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics.

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2092 Establishing a Change Management Model for Precision Machinery Industry in Taiwan

Authors: Feng-Tsung Cheng, Shu-Li Wang, Mei-Fang Wu, Hui-Yu Chuang

Abstract:

The rapid development technology and widespread Internet make business environment changing a lot. In order to stand in the global market and to keep subsistence, “changing” is unspoken rule for the company’s survival. The purpose of this paper is building up change model by using SWOT, strategy map, KPI and change management theory. The research findings indicate that the company needs to deal with employee’s resistance emotion firstly before building up change model. The ways of providing performance appraisal reward, consulting and counseling mechanisms that will great help to achieve reducing staff negative emotions and motivate staff’s efficiencies also. To revise strategy map, modify corporate culture, and improve internal operational processes which is based on change model. Through the change model, the increasing growth rate of net income helps company to achieve the goals and be a leading brand of precision machinery industry.

Keywords: Organizational change, SWOT analysis, strategy maps, performance indicators.

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2091 Confirming the Identity of the Individual Using Remote Assessment in E-learning

Authors: Olaf Hallan Graven, Lachlan MacKinnon

Abstract:

One major issue that is regularly cited as a block to the widespread use of online assessments in eLearning, is that of the authentication of the student and the level of confidence that an assessor can have that the assessment was actually completed by that student. Currently, this issue is either ignored, in which case confidence in the assessment and any ensuing qualification is damaged, or else assessments are conducted at central, controlled locations at specified times, losing the benefits of the distributed nature of the learning programme. Particularly as we move towards constructivist models of learning, with intentions towards achieving heutagogic learning environments, the benefits of a properly managed online assessment system are clear. Here we discuss some of the approaches that could be adopted to address these issues, looking at the use of existing security and biometric techniques, combined with some novel behavioural elements. These approaches offer the opportunity to validate the student on accessing an assessment, on submission, and also during the actual production of the assessment. These techniques are currently under development in the DECADE project, and future work will evaluate and report their use..

Keywords: E-learning, remote identification, assessment.

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2090 The Advantages of Integration for Social Systems – Evidence from the Automobile Industry

Authors: Waldemiro Francisco Sorte Junior

Abstract:

The Japanese integrative approach to social systems can be observed in supply chain management as well as in the relationship between public and private sectors. Both the Lean Production System and the Developmental State Model are characterized by efforts towards the achievement of mutual goals, resulting in initiatives for capacity building which emphasize the system level. In Brazil, although organizations undertake efforts to build capabilities at the individual and organizational levels, the system level is being neglected. Fieldwork data confirmed the findings of other studies in terms of the lack of integration in supply chain management in the Brazilian automobile industry. Moreover, due to the absence of an active role of the Brazilian state in its relationship with the private sector, automakers are not fully exploiting the opportunities in the domestic and regional markets. For promoting a higher level of economic growth as well as to increase the degree of spill-over of technologies and techniques, a more integrative approach is needed.

Keywords: Integration, Lean Production System, DevelopmentalState Model, Brazilian automobile industry.

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2089 The Prospective Assessment of Zero-Energy Dwellings

Authors: Jovana Dj. Jovanovic, Svetlana M. Stevovic

Abstract:

The highest priority of so called, projected passive houses is to meet the appropriate energy demand. Every single material and layer which is injected into a dwelling has a certain energy quantity stored. The passive houses include optimized insulation levels with minimal thermal bridges, minimum of air leakage through the building, utilization of passive solar and internal gains, and good circulation of air which leans on mechanical ventilation system. The focus of this paper is on passive house features, benefits and targets, their feasibility and energy demands which are set up during each project. Numerous passive house-standards outline the very significant role of zero-energy dwellings towards the modern label of sustainable development. It is clear that the performance of both built and existing housing stock must be addressed if the population across the world sets out the energy objectives. This scientific article examines passive house features since the many passive house cases are launched.

Keywords: Benefits, energy demands, passive houses, sustainable development.

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2088 Inflating the Public: A Series of Urban Interventions

Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

Abstract:

The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: Bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments.

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2087 Simulating Pathogen Transport with in a Naturally Ventilated Hospital Ward

Authors: C. A. Gilkeson, C. J. Noakes, P. A. Sleigh, M. A. I. Khan, M. A. Camargo-Valero

Abstract:

Understanding how airborne pathogens are transported through hospital wards is essential for determining the infection risk to patients and healthcare workers. This study utilizes Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to explore possible pathogen transport within a six-bed partitioned Nightingalestyle hospital ward. Grid independence of a ward model was addressed using the Grid Convergence Index (GCI) from solutions obtained using three fullystructured grids. Pathogens were simulated using source terms in conjunction with a scalar transport equation and a RANS turbulence model. Errors were found to be less than 4% in the calculation of air velocities but an average of 13% was seen in the scalar field. A parametric study of variations in the pathogen release point illustrated that its distribution is strongly influenced by the local velocity field and the degree of air mixing present.

Keywords: Natural, Ventilation, Pathogen, Transport

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2086 Fault Detection of Pipeline in Water Distribution Network System

Authors: Shin Je Lee, Go Bong Choi, Jeong Cheol Seo, Jong Min Lee, Gibaek Lee

Abstract:

Water pipe network is installed underground and once equipped, it is difficult to recognize the state of pipes when the leak or burst happens. Accordingly, post management is often delayed after the fault occurs. Therefore, the systematic fault management system of water pipe network is required to prevent the accident and minimize the loss. In this work, we develop online fault detection system of water pipe network using data of pipes such as flow rate or pressure. The transient model describing water flow in pipelines is presented and simulated using MATLAB. The fault situations such as the leak or burst can be also simulated and flow rate or pressure data when the fault happens are collected. Faults are detected using statistical methods of fast Fourier transform and discrete wavelet transform, and they are compared to find which method shows the better fault detection performance.

Keywords: fault detection, water pipeline model, fast Fourier transform, discrete wavelet transform.

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2085 Dynamics of Functional Composition of a Brazilian Tropical Forest in Response to Drought Stress

Authors: Theodore N.S. Karfakis, Anna Andrade

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to examine the dynamics of functional composition of a non flooded Amazonian forest in response to drought stress in terms of diameter growth, recruitment and mortality. The survey was carried out in the continuous forest of the Biological dynamics of forest fragments project 90 km outside the city of Manaus, state of Amazonas Brazil. All stems >10 cm dbh where identified to species level and monitored in 18 one hectare permanent sample plots from 1981 to 2004.For statistical analysis all species where aggregated in three ecological guilds. Two distinct drought events occurred in 1983 and 1997. Results showed that more early successional species performed better than later successional ones. Response was significant for both events but for the 1997 event this was more pronounced possibly because of the fact that the event was in the middle of the dry rather than the wet period as was the 1983 one.

Keywords: Brazil, functional composition, drought, Amazonian non flooded forest.

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2084 Landcover Mapping Using Lidar Data and Aerial Image and Soil Fertility Degradation Assessment for Rice Production Area in Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Philippines

Authors: Eliza. E. Camaso, Guiller. B. Damian, Miguelito. F. Isip, Ronaldo T. Alberto

Abstract:

Land-cover maps were important for many scientific, ecological and land management purposes and during the last decades, rapid decrease of soil fertility was observed to be due to land use practices such as rice cultivation. High-precision land-cover maps are not yet available in the area which is important in an economy management. To assure   accurate mapping of land cover to provide information, remote sensing is a very suitable tool to carry out this task and automatic land use and cover detection. The study did not only provide high precision land cover maps but it also provides estimates of rice production area that had undergone chemical degradation due to fertility decline. Land-cover were delineated and classified into pre-defined classes to achieve proper detection features. After generation of Land-cover map, of high intensity of rice cultivation, soil fertility degradation assessment in rice production area due to fertility decline was created to assess the impact of soils used in agricultural production. Using Simple spatial analysis functions and ArcGIS, the Land-cover map of Municipality of Quezon in Nueva Ecija, Philippines was overlaid to the fertility decline maps from Land Degradation Assessment Philippines- Bureau of Soils and Water Management (LADA-Philippines-BSWM) to determine the area of rice crops that were most likely where nitrogen, phosphorus, zinc and sulfur deficiencies were induced by high dosage of urea and imbalance N:P fertilization. The result found out that 80.00 % of fallow and 99.81% of rice production area has high soil fertility decline.

Keywords: Aerial image, land-cover, LiDAR, soil fertility degradation.

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2083 Lessons from Applying XP Methodology to Business Requirements Engineering in Developing Countries Context

Authors: Olugbara O.O., Adebiyi A.A.

Abstract:

Most standard software development methodologies are often not applied to software projects in many developing countries of the world. The approach generally practice is close to what eXtreme Programming (XP) is likely promoting, just keep coding and testing as the requirement evolves. XP is an agile software process development methodology that has inherent capability for improving efficiency of Business Software Development (BSD). XP can facilitate Business-to-Development (B2D) relationship due to its customer-oriented advocate. From practitioner point of view, we applied XP to BSD and result shows that customer involvement has positive impact on productivity, but can as well frustrate the success of the project. In an effort to promote software engineering practice in developing countries of Africa, we present the experiment performed, lessons learned, problems encountered and solution adopted in applying XP methodology to BSD.

Keywords: Requirements engineering, Requirements elicitation, Extreme programming, Mobile Work force

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2082 A Pilot Study for the Optimization of Routes for Waste Collection Vehicles for the Göçmenköy District of Lefkoşa

Authors: Nergiz Fırıncı, Aysun Çelik, Ertan Akün, Md. Atif Khan

Abstract:

A pilot project was carried out in 2007 by the senior students of Cyprus International University, aiming to minimize the total cost of waste collection in Northern Cyprus. Many developed and developing countries have cut their transportation costs – which lies between 30-40% – down at a rate of 40% percent, by implementing network models for their route assignments. Accordingly, a network model was implemented at Göçmenköy district, to optimize and standardize waste collection works. The work environment of the employees were also redesigned to provide maximum ergonomy and to increase productivity, efficiency and safety. Following the collection of the required data including waste densities, lengths of roads and population, a model was constructed to allocate the optimal route assignment for the waste collection trucks at Göçmenköy district.

Keywords: Minimization, waste collection, operations cost, transportation, ergonomy, productivity.

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2081 Omni: Data Science Platform for Evaluate Performance of a LoRaWAN Network

Authors: Emanuele A. Solagna, Ricardo S, Tozetto, Roberto dos S. Rabello

Abstract:

Nowadays, physical processes are becoming digitized by the evolution of communication, sensing and storage technologies which promote the development of smart cities. The evolution of this technology has generated multiple challenges related to the generation of big data and the active participation of electronic devices in society. Thus, devices can send information that is captured and processed over large areas, but there is no guarantee that all the obtained data amount will be effectively stored and correctly persisted. Because, depending on the technology which is used, there are parameters that has huge influence on the full delivery of information. This article aims to characterize the project, currently under development, of a platform that based on data science will perform a performance and effectiveness evaluation of an industrial network that implements LoRaWAN technology considering its main parameters configuration relating these parameters to the information loss.

Keywords: Internet of Things, LoRa, LoRaWAN, smart cities.

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2080 The Cooperation among Insulin, Cortisol and Thyroid Hormones in Morbid Obese Children and Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

Abstract:

Obesity, a disease associated with a low-grade inflammation, is a risk factor for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS). So far, MetS risk factors such as parameters related to glucose and lipid metabolisms as well as blood pressure were considered for the evaluation of this disease. There are still some ambiguities related to the characteristic features of MetS observed particularly in pediatric population. Hormonal imbalance is also important, and quite a lot information exists about the behaviour of some hormones in adults. However, the hormonal profiles in pediatric metabolism have not been cleared yet. The aim of this study is to investigate the profiles of cortisol, insulin, and thyroid hormones in children with MetS. The study population was composed of morbid obese (MO) children without (Group 1) and with (Group 2) MetS components. WHO BMI-for age and sex percentiles were used for the classification of obesity. The values above 99 percentile were defined as morbid obesity. Components of MetS (central obesity, glucose intolerance, high blood pressure, high triacylglycerol levels, low levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol) were determined. Anthropometric measurements were performed. Ratios as well as obesity indices were calculated. Insulin, cortisol, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free T3 and free T4 analyses were performed by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Data were evaluated by statistical package for social sciences program. p<0.05 was accepted as the degree for statistical significance. The mean ages±SD values of Group 1 and Group 2 were 9.9±3.1 years and 10.8±3.2 years, respectively. Body mass index (BMI) values were calculated as 27.4±5.9 kg/m2 and 30.6±8.1 kg/m2, successively. There were no statistically significant differences between the ages and BMI values of the groups. Insulin levels were statistically significantly increased in MetS in comparison with the levels measured in MO children. There was not any difference between MO children and those with MetS in terms of cortisol, T3, T4 and TSH. However, T4 levels were positively correlated with cortisol and negatively correlated with insulin. None of these correlations were observed in MO children. Cortisol levels in both MO as well as MetS group were significantly correlated. Cortisol, insulin, and thyroid hormones are essential for life. Cortisol, called the control system for hormones, orchestrates the performance of other key hormones. It seems to establish a connection between hormone imbalance and inflammation. During an inflammatory state, more cortisol is produced to fight inflammation. High cortisol levels prevent the conversion of the inactive form of the thyroid hormone T4 into active form T3. Insulin is reduced due to low thyroid hormone. T3, which is essential for blood sugar control- requires cortisol levels within the normal range. Positive association of T4 with cortisol and negative association of it with insulin are the indicators of such a delicate balance among these hormones also in children with MetS.

Keywords: Children, cortisol, insulin, metabolic syndrome, thyroid hormones.

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2079 A New Fuzzy Decision Support Method for Analysis of Economic Factors of Turkey's Construction Industry

Authors: R. Tur, A. Yardımcı

Abstract:

Imperfect knowledge cannot be avoided all the time. Imperfections may have several forms; uncertainties, imprecision and incompleteness. When we look to classification of methods for the management of imperfect knowledge we see fuzzy set-based techniques. The choice of a method to process data is linked to the choice of knowledge representation, which can be numerical, symbolic, logical or semantic and it depends on the nature of the problem to be solved for example decision support, which will be mentioned in our study. Fuzzy Logic is used for its ability to manage imprecise knowledge, but it can take advantage of the ability of neural networks to learn coefficients or functions. Such an association of methods is typical of so-called soft computing. In this study a new method was used for the management of imprecision for collected knowledge which related to economic analysis of construction industry in Turkey. Because of sudden changes occurring in economic factors decrease competition strength of construction companies. The better evaluation of these changes in economical factors in view of construction industry will made positive influence on company-s decisions which are dealing construction.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, decision support systems, construction industry.

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2078 Contractor Selection in Saudi Arabia

Authors: M. A. Bajaber, M. A. Taha

Abstract:

Contractor selection in Saudi Arabia is very important due to the large construction boom and the contractor role to get over construction risks. The need for investigating contractor selection is due to the following reasons; large number of defaulted or failed projects (18%), large number of disputes attributed to contractor during the project execution stage (almost twofold), the extension of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) into construction industry, and finally the few number of researches. The selection strategy is not perfect and considered as the reason behind irresponsible contractors. As a response, this research was conducted to review the contractor selection strategies as an integral part of a long advanced research to develop a good selection model. Many techniques can be used to form a selection strategy; multi criteria for optimizing decision, prequalification to discover contractor-s responsibility, bidding process for competition, third party guarantee to enhance the selection, and fuzzy techniques for ambiguities and incomplete information.

Keywords: Bidding, Construction industry, Contractor selection, Saudi Arabia.

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2077 Estimation Method for the Construction of Hydrogen Society with Various Biomass Resources in Japan-Project of Cost Reductions in Biomass Transport and Feasibility for Hydrogen Station with Biomass-

Authors: Masaki Tajima, Kenji Imou, Shinya Yokoyama

Abstract:

It was determined that woody biomass and livestock excreta can be utilized as hydrogen resources and hydrogen produced from such sources can be used to fill fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) at hydrogen stations. It was shown that the biomass transport costs for hydrogen production may be reduced the costs for co-generation. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, there are only a few sites capable of producing hydrogen from woody biomass in amounts greater than 200 m3/h-the scale required for a hydrogen station to be operationally practical. However, in the case of livestock excreta, it was shown that 15% of the municipalities in this area are capable of securing sufficient biomass to be operationally practical for hydrogen production. The differences in feasibility of practical operation depend on the type of biomass.

Keywords: Biomass Resources, Hydrogen Production, Hydrogen Station, Transport Cost.

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2076 The Impact of Website Personality on Consumers' Initial Trust towards Online Retailing Websites

Authors: Jasmine Yeap Ai Leen, T. Ramayah, Azizah Omar

Abstract:

E-tailing websites are often perceived to be static, impersonal and distant. However, with the movement of the World Wide Web to Web 2.0 in recent years, these online websites have been found to display personalities akin to 'humanistic' qualities and project impressions much like its retailing counterpart i.e. salespeople. This paper examines the personality of e-tailing websites and their impact on consumers- initial trust towards the sites. A total of 239 Internet users participated in this field experiment study which utilized 6 online book retailers- websites that the participants had not previously visited before. Analysis revealed that out of four website personalities (sincerity, competence, excitement and sophistication) only sincerity and competence are able to exert an influence in building consumers- trust upon their first visit to the website. The implications of the findings are further elaborated in this paper.

Keywords: E-commerce, e-tailing, initial trust, online trust, partial least squares, website personality.

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2075 Normalizing Logarithms of Realized Volatility in an ARFIMA Model

Authors: G. L. C. Yap

Abstract:

Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

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2074 Optimal Trajectory Finding of IDP Ventilation Control with Outdoor Air Information and Indoor Health Risk Index

Authors: Minjeong Kim, Seungchul Lee, Iman Janghorban Esfahani, Jeong Tai Kim, Chang Kyoo Yoo

Abstract:

This study was carried out for an underground subway station at Seoul Metro, Korea. The optimal set-points of the ventilation control system are determined every 3 hours, then, the ventilation controller adjusts the ventilation fan speed according to the optimal set-point changes. Compared to manual ventilation system which is operated irrespective of the OAQ, the IDP-based ventilation control system saves 3.7% of the energy consumption. Compared to the fixed set-point controller which is operated irrespective of the IAQ diurnal variation, the IDP-based controller shows better performance with a 2% decrease in energy consumption, maintaining the comfortable IAQ range inside the station.

Keywords: Indoor air quality, iterative dynamic algorithm, outdoor air information, ventilation control system.

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