Search results for: team decision making

Authors: Muhammad Tufail, Jawad Hussain, Hammad Hussain, Imran Hafeez, Naveed Ahmad

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Road safety performance index is a composite index which combines various indicators of road safety into single number. Development of a road safety performance index using appropriate safety performance indicators is essential to enhance road safety. However, a road safety performance index in developing countries has not been given as much priority as needed. The primary objective of this research is to develop a general Road Safety Performance Index (RSPI) for developing countries based on the facility as well as behavior of road user. The secondary objectives include finding the critical inputs in the RSPI and finding the better method of making the index. In this study, the RSPI is developed by selecting four main safety performance indicators i.e., protective system (seat belt, helmet etc.), road (road width, signalized intersections, number of lanes, speed limit), number of pedestrians, and number of vehicles. Data on these four safety performance indicators were collected using observation survey on a 20 km road section of the National Highway N-125 road Taxila, Pakistan. For the development of this composite index, two methods are used: a) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and b) Equal Weighting (EW) method. PCA is used for extraction, weighting, and linear aggregation of indicators to obtain a single value. An individual index score was calculated for each road section by multiplication of weights and standardized values of each safety performance indicator. However, Simple Average technique was used for weighting and linear aggregation of indicators to develop a RSPI. The road sections are ranked according to RSPI scores using both methods. The two weighting methods are compared, and the PCA method is found to be much more reliable than the Simple Average Technique.

Keywords: Aggregation, index score, indicators, principal component analysis, weighting.

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Authors: André C. Silva, Izabela L. A. Moraes, Elenice M. S. Silva, Carlos M. Silva Filho

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In Brazil, most soils are acidic and low in essential nutrients required for the growth and development of plants, making fertilizers essential for agriculture. As the biggest producer of soy in the world and a major producer of coffee, sugar cane and citrus fruits, Brazil is a large consumer of phosphate. Brazilian’s phosphate ores are predominantly from igneous rocks showing a complex mineralogy, associated with carbonites and oxides, typically iron, silicon and barium. The adopted industrial concentration circuit for this type of ore is a mix between magnetic separation (both low and high field) to remove the magnetic fraction and a froth flotation circuit composed by a reverse flotation of apatite (barite’s flotation) followed by direct flotation circuit (rougher, cleaner and scavenger circuit). Since the 70’s fatty acids obtained from vegetable oils are widely used as lower-cost collectors in apatite froth flotation. This is a very effective approach to the apatite family of minerals, being that this type of collector is both selective and efficient (high recovery). This paper presents Jatropha curcas L. oil (JCO) as a renewable and sustainable source of fatty acids with high selectivity in froth flotation of apatite. JCO is considerably rich in fatty acids such as linoleic, oleic and palmitic acid. The experimental campaign involved 216 tests using a modified Hallimond tube and two different minerals (apatite and quartz). In order to be used as a collector, the oil was saponified. The results found were compared with the synthetic collector, Fotigam 5806 produced by Clariant, which is composed mainly by soy oil. JCO showed the highest selectivity for apatite flotation with cold saponification at pH 8 and concentration of 2.5 mg/L. In this case, the mineral recovery was around 95%.

Keywords: Froth flotation, Jatropha curcas L., microflotation, selectivity.

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Authors: Monisha Isaac

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Biotechnology is a discipline which explains the use of living organisms and systems to construct a product, or we can define it as an application or technology developed to use biological systems and organisms processes for a specific use. Particularly, it includes cells and its components use for new technologies and inventions. The tools developed can be further used in diverse fields such as agriculture, industry, research and hospitals etc. The 21^st century has seen a drastic development and advancement in biotechnology in India. Significant increase in Government of India’s outlays for biotechnology over the past decade has been observed. A sectoral break up of biotechnology-based companies in India shows that most of the companies are agriculture-based companies having interests ranging from tissue culture to biopesticides. Major attention has been given by the companies in health related activities and in environmental biotechnology. The biopharmaceutical, which comprises of vaccines, diagnostic, and recombinant products is the most reliable and largest segment of the Indian Biotech industry. India has developed its vaccine markets and supplies them to various countries. Then there are the bio-services, which mainly comprise of contract researches and manufacturing services. India has made noticeable developments in the field of bio industries including manufacturing of enzymes, biofuels and biopolymers. Biotechnology is also playing a crucial and significant role in the field of agriculture. Traditional methods have been replaced by new technologies that mainly focus on GM crops, marker assisted technologies and the use of biotechnological tools to improve the quality of fertilizers and soil. It may only be a small contributor but has shown to have huge potential for growth. Bioinformatics is a computational method which helps to store, manage, arrange and design tools to interpret the extensive data gathered through experimental trials, making it important in the design of drugs.

Keywords: Biotechnology, advancement, agriculture, bio-services, bio-industries, bio-pharmaceuticals.

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Authors: Pooja Jain

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Art education is often ignored in syllabus of developing countries like India and in educational planning for development but now days Indian Art with a global recognition is becoming an integral part of the education at all levels. The term art, widely used in all parts of the modern world, carried varied significance in India as its meaning was continuously being extended, covering the many varieties of creative expression such as painting, sculpture, commercial art, design, poetry, music, dance, and architecture. Over the last 100 years Indian artists of all forms have evolved a wide variety of expressive styles. With the recommendations and initiatives by Government of India, Art Education has subsequently gained pace at the school level as a mandatory subject for all making a path way for students with a creative bend of mind. This paper investigates curriculum in various schools of the country at secondary and senior secondary levels along with some eminent institutions running the program. Findings depicted the role of art education and justified its importance primarily with commercial art being perceived to be essential for students learning skills for economic gain in their career ahead. With so many art colleges spread across India, emerging artists and designers are being trained and are creating art of infinite variety and style and have opened up many career avenues. Commercial Art being a plethora of artistic expressions has confidently come of age wherein a creative perception is mixed with an introspective imagination to bring out multi faceted career options with a significant future enveloped in art. Visual arts in education thus is an expanding field of result assured research.

Keywords: Modern art, commercial art, introspective imagination, career.

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Authors: Denise Levy, Helen J. Khoury

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Nuclear technology is a controversial issue among a great share of the Brazilian population. Misinformation and common wrong beliefs confuse public’s perceptions and the scientific community is expected to offer a wider perspective on the benefits and risks resulting from ionizing radiation in everyday life. Attentive to the need of new approaches between science and society, the Nuclear Energy Museum, in northeast Brazil, is an initiative created to communicate the growing impact of the beneficial applications of nuclear technology in medicine, industry, agriculture and electric power generation. Providing accessible scientific information, the museum offers a rich learning environment, making use of different educational strategies, such as films, interactive panels and multimedia learning tools, which not only increase the enjoyment of visitors, but also maximize their learning potential. Developed according to modern active learning instructional strategies, multimedia materials are designed to present the increasingly role of nuclear science in modern life, transforming science education into a meaningful learning experience. In year 2016, nine different interactive computer-based activities were developed, presenting curiosities about ionizing radiation in different landmarks around the world, such as radiocarbon dating works in Egypt, nuclear power generation in France and X-radiography of famous paintings in Italy. Feedback surveys have reported a high level of visitors’ satisfaction, proving the high quality experience in learning nuclear science at the museum. The Nuclear Energy Museum is the first and, up to the present time, the only permanent museum in Brazil devoted entirely to nuclear science.

Keywords: Nuclear technology, multimedia learning tools, science museum, society and education.

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Authors: A. O. Oluwajobi, O. A. Falusi, N. A. Zubbair, T. Owoeye, F. Ladejobi, M. C. Dangana, A. Abubakar

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The technology of mobile telephony has positively enhanced human life and reports on the bio safety of the radiation from their antennae have been contradictory, leading to serious litigations and violent protests by residents in several parts of the world. The crave for more information, as requested by WHO in order to resolve this issue, formed the basis for this study on the effect of the radiation from 900 MHz GSM antenna on the DNA of Hibiscus sabdariffa. Seeds of H. sabdariffa were raised in pots placed in three replicates at 100, 200, 300 and 400 metres from the GSM antennae in three selected test locations and a control where there was no GSM signal. Temperature (˚C) and the relative humidity (%) of study sites were measured for the period of study (24 weeks). Fresh young leaves were harvested from each plant at two, eight and twenty-four weeks after sowing and the DNA extracts were subjected to RAPD-PCR analyses. There were no significant differences between the weather conditions (temperature and relative humidity) in all the study locations. However, significant differences were observed in the intensities of radiations between the control (less than 0.02 V/m) and the test (0.40-1.01 V/m) locations. Data obtained showed that DNA of samples exposed to rays from GSM antenna had various levels of distortions, estimated at 91.67%. Distortions occurred in 58.33% of the samples between 2-8 weeks of exposure while 33.33% of the samples were distorted between 8-24 weeks exposure. Approximately 8.33% of the samples did not show distortions in DNA while 33.33% of the samples had their DNA damaged twice, both at 8 and at 24 weeks of exposure. The study showed that radiation from the 900 MHz GSM antenna is potent enough to cause distortions to DNA of H. sabdariffa even within 2-8 weeks of exposure. DNA damage was also independent of the distance from the antenna. These observations would qualify emissions from GSM mast as environmental hazard to the existence of plant biodiversities and all life forms in general. These results will trigger efforts to prevent further erosion of plant genetic resources which have been threatening food security and also the risks posed to living organisms, thereby making our environment very safe for our existence while we still continue to enjoy the benefits of the GSM technology.

Keywords: Damage, DNA, GSM antenna, radiation.

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

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Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Keywords: Choice of mode, monetary evaluation, railway operations, reactionary delays.

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Authors: Rekha Kandwal, Kamal K.Bharadwaj

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Knowledge is indispensable but voluminous knowledge becomes a bottleneck for efficient processing. A great challenge for data mining activity is the generation of large number of potential rules as a result of mining process. In fact sometimes result size is comparable to the original data. Traditional data mining pruning activities such as support do not sufficiently reduce the huge rule space. Moreover, many practical applications are characterized by continual change of data and knowledge, thereby making knowledge voluminous with each change. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the form If P Then D. Michalski & Winston proposed Censored Production Rules (CPRs), as an extension of production rules, that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations in which the conditional statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence, are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses important information while the Unless C part acts only as a switch changes the polarity of D to ~D. In this paper a scheme based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) interpretation of a CPR is suggested for discovering CPRs from the discovered flat PRs. The discovery of CPRs from flat rules would result in considerable reduction of the already discovered rules. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge and also reduces the size of knowledge base considerably with each episode. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested cumulative learning scheme would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Censored production rules, cumulative learning, data mining, machine learning.

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Authors: Pradeep Kulshrestha, Maulana Ayoub Ali

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The level of penetration of Islamic banking products and services has recorded a reasonable growth at an exponential rate in many parts of the world. There are many factors which have contributed to this growth including, but not limited to the rapid growth of number of Muslims who are uncomfortable with the conventional ways of banking, interest and higher interest rates scheduled by conventional banks and financial institutions as well as the financial inclusion campaign conducted in many countries. The system is facing legal challenges which open the research fdoor for practitioners and academicians for the sake of finding out solutions to those challenges. This paper tries to investigate the development of the Islamic banking system in the United Kingdom (UK), Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iran, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda in order to understand the modalities which have been employed to run an Islamic banking system in the aforementioned countries. The methodology which has been employed in doing this research paper is Doctrinal, of which legislations, policies and other legal tools have been carefully studied and analysed. Again, papers from academic journals, books and financial reports have been deeply analysed for the purpose of enriching the paper and come up with a tangible results. The paper found that in Asia, Malaysia has created the smoothest legal platform for Islamic banking system to work properly in the country. The United Kingdom has tried harder to smooth the banking system without affecting the conventional banking methods and without favouring the operations of Islamic banks. It also tries harder to make UK as an Islamic banking and finance hub in Europe. The entire banking system in Iran is Islamic, while Nigeria has undergone several legal reforms to suit Islamic banking system in the country. Kenya and Uganda are at a different pace in making Islamic Banking system work alongside the conventional banking system.  

Keywords: Shariah, Islamic banking, law, alternative banking.

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Authors: Mohammad Aminnia, Mahmood Hosseini

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Environmental and functional conditions, sometimes, necessitate the architectural plan of the building to be asymmetric, and this result in an asymmetric structure. In such cases finding an optimal pattern for locating the components of lateral load bearing system, including shear walls, in the building’s plan is desired. In case of shear wall in addition to the location the shape of the wall cross-section is also an effective factor. Various types of shear walls and their proper layout might come effective in better stiffness distribution and more appropriate seismic response of the building. Several studies have been conducted in the context of analysis and design of shear walls; however, few studies have been performed on making decisions for the location and form of shear walls in multistory buildings, especially those with irregular plan. In this study, an attempt has been made to obtain the most reliable seismic behavior of multi-story reinforced concrete vertically chamfered buildings by using more appropriate shear walls form and arrangement in 7-, 10-, 12-, and 15-stoy buildings. The considered forms and arrangements include common rectangular walls and L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan, located as the core or in the outer frames of the building structure. Comparison of seismic behaviors of the buildings, including maximum roof displacement and particularly formation of plastic hinges and their distribution in the buildings’ structures, have been done based on the results of a series of nonlinear time history analyses, by using a set of selected earthquake records. Results show that shear walls with U-shaped cross-section, placed as the building central core, and also walls with Z-shaped cross-section, placed at the corners give the building more reliable seismic behavior.

Keywords: Vertically chamfered buildings, non-linear time history analyses, L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan walls.

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Authors: Sitalakshmi Venkataraman

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Recent scientific investigations indicate that multimodal biometrics overcome the technical limitations of unimodal biometrics, making them ideally suited for everyday life applications that require a reliable authentication system. However, for a successful adoption of multimodal biometrics, such systems would require large heterogeneous datasets with complex multimodal fusion and privacy schemes spanning various distributed environments. From experimental investigations of current multimodal systems, this paper reports the various issues related to speed, error-recovery and privacy that impede the diffusion of such systems in real-life. This calls for a robust mechanism that caters to the desired real-time performance, robust fusion schemes, interoperability and adaptable privacy policies. The main objective of this paper is to present a framework that addresses the abovementioned issues by leveraging on the heterogeneous resource sharing capacities of Grid services and the efficient machine learning capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANN). Hence, this paper proposes a Grid-based neural network framework for adopting multimodal biometrics with the view of overcoming the barriers of performance, privacy and risk issues that are associated with shared heterogeneous multimodal data centres. The framework combines the concept of Grid services for reliable brokering and privacy policy management of shared biometric resources along with a momentum back propagation ANN (MBPANN) model of machine learning for efficient multimodal fusion and authentication schemes. Real-life applications would be able to adopt the proposed framework to cater to the varying business requirements and user privacies for a successful diffusion of multimodal biometrics in various day-to-day transactions.

Keywords: Back Propagation, Grid Services, MultimodalBiometrics, Neural Networks.

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Authors: A. Abdulkadir, Y. M. Bello, A. A. Okhimamhe, H. Ibrahim, M. B. Matazu, L. S. Barau

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The increasing volume of solid waste generated, collected and disposed daily complicate adequate management of solid waste by relevant agency like Niger State Environmental Protection Agency (NISEPA). In addition, the impacts of solid waste on the natural environment and human livelihood require identification of cost-effective ways for sustainable municipal waste management in Nigeria. These signal the need for identifying environment-friendly initiative and local solution to address the problem of municipal solid waste. A research field was secured at Pago, Minna, Niger State which is located in the guinea savanna belt of Nigeria, within longitude 60 361 4311 - 4511 and latitude 90 291 37.6111 - .6211 N. Poultry droppings, decomposed household waste manure and NPK treatments were used. The experimental field was divided into three replications and four (4) treatments on each replication making a total of twelve (12) plots. The treatments were allotted using Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) and Data collected was analyzed using SPSS software and RCBD. The result depicts variation in plant height and number of leaves at 50% flowering; Poultry dropping records the highest height while the number of leaves for waste manure competes fairly well with NPK treatment. Similarly, the varying treatments significantly increase vegetable yield, as the control (non-treatment) records the least yield for the three vegetable samples. Adoption of this organic manure for cultivation does not only enhance environment quality and attainment of food security but will contribute to local economic development, poverty alleviation as well as social inclusion.

Keywords: Environmental issues, food security, NISEPA, solid waste.

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Authors: J. Chakwizira, P. Bikam, T. A. Adeboyejo

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This paper seeks to illustrate the impact of rapid urbanization (in terms of both increase in people and vehicles) in the Gauteng region (which includes Johannesburg, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni). The impact that existing transport systems and options place on the capacity of residents from low income areas to travel and conduct various socio-economic activities is discussed. The findings are drawn from a 2013 analysis of a random transport household survey of 1550 households carried out in Gauteng province. 91.4% of the study respondents had access to public transport, while 8.6% had no access to public transport. Of the 91.4% who used public transport, the main reason used to explain this state of affairs was that it was affordable (54.3%), convenient (15.9%), Accessible (11.9%), lack of alternatives (6.4%) and reliable at 4.1%. Recommendations advanced revolve around the need to reverse land use and transportation effects of apartheid planning, growing and developing a sustainable critical mass of public transport interventions supported by appropriate transport systems that are environmentally sustainable through proper governance. 38.5% of the respondents indicated that developing compact, smart and integrated urban land spaces was key to reducing travel challenges in the study area. 23.4% indicated that the introduction and upgrading of BRT buses to cover all areas in the study area was a step in the right direction because it has great potential in shifting travel patterns to favor public modes of transport. 15.1% indicated that all open spaces should be developed so that fragmentation of land uses can be addressed. This would help to fight disconnected and fragmented space and trip making challenges in Gauteng. 13.4% indicated that improving the metro rail services was critical since this is a mass mover of commuters. 9.6% of the respondents highlighted that the bus subsidy policy has to be retained in the short to medium term since the spatial mismatches and challenges created by apartheid are yet to be fully reversed.

Keywords: Urbanisation, population, public, transport systems, Gauteng.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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Authors: Karim Shiraazi, Zargham OstadiAsl, Vahid Sheikhloie, Ahadollah Azami, Shahin Hassanimehr

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Bridge is an architectural symbol in Iran as Badgir (wind catcher); fire temples and arch are vaults are such. Therefore, from the very old ages, construction of bridges in Iran has mixed with architecture, social customs, alms and charity and holiness. Since long ago, from Mad, Achaemenid, Parthian and Sassanid times which construction of bridges got an inseparable relation with social dependency and architecture, based on those dependency bridges and dams got holy names; as Dokhtar castle and Dokhtar bridges were constructed. This method continued even after Islam and whenever Iranians got free from political fights and the immunity of roads were established the bridge construction did also prospered. In ancient times bridge construction passes through it growing and completion process and in Sassanid time in some way it reached to the peak of art and glory; as after Islam especially during 4th. century (Arab calendar) it put behind a period of glory and in Safavid time it reached to an exceptional glory and magnificence by constructing glorious bridges on Zayandeh Roud River in Isfahan. Having a combined style and changeability into bridge barrier, some of these bridges develop into magnificent constructions. The sustainable structures, mentioned above, are constructed for various reasons as follows: connecting two sides of a river, storing water, controlling floods, using water energy to operate water windmills, making lanes of streams for farms- use, and building recreational places for people, etc. These studies carried in bridges reveals the fact that in construction and designing mentioned above, lots of technological factors have been taken into consideration such as exceeding floods in the rives, hydraulic and hydrology of the rivers and bridges, geology, foundation, structure, construction material, and adopting appropriate executing methods, all of which are being analyzed in this article.

Keywords: Hydraulic-Architectural Bridge, Sustainability, Construction

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Authors: Elzo Alves Aranha, Marcio M. Araki

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Business model (BM) is a term that has been receiving the attention of scholars and practitioners and has been consolidating itself as a field of study and research. Although there is no agreement in the academic literature on the definition of BM, at least there is an explicit agreement: BM defines a logical structure of how an organization creates value, capture value and delivers value for the customers and stakeholders. The lack of understanding about connections and elements among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education opens a gap in the academic literature. Thus, it is interesting to analyze how BM has been approached by the literature and applied in higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education aimed to know the main streams of research. This is because higher education institutions are characterized by innovation, leading to a greater acceptance of new and modern concepts such as BM. Our research has the main motivation to fill the gap in the academic literature, making it possible to increase the power of understanding about connections and aspects among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education. The objective of the research is to analyze the main aspects among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education in academic literature. The research followed the systematic literature review (SLR). The SLR is based on three main factors: clarity, validity, and auditability. 82 academic papers were found in the past 10 years, from 2009-2019. The search was carried out in Science Direct and Periodicos Capes databases. The main findings indicate that there are links between BM and higher education, BM and university, BM, and entrepreneurship education. The main findings are inserted within seven aspects. The findings are innovative and contribute to increase the power of understanding about the connection among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education in academic literature. The research findings addressed to the gap exposed in academic literature. The research findings have several practical implications, and we highlight only two main ones. First, researchers will be able to use the research findings to mitigate a BM research agenda involving connections between BM and higher education, BM and university, and BM and entrepreneurship education. Second, directors, deans, and university leaders will be able to carry out BM awareness programs, BM professors training programs, and makers planning for the inclusion of BM, as one of the components of the curricula of the undergraduate and graduate courses.

Keywords: Business model, entrepreneurship education, higher education, university.

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Authors: Rahman Davtalab, Saba Ghotbi

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Florida is one of the most vulnerable states to natural disasters among the 50 states of the USA. The state exposed by tropical storms, hurricanes, storm surge, landslide, etc. Besides the mentioned natural phenomena, global warming, sea-level rise, and other anthropogenic environmental changes make a very complicated and unpredictable system for decision-makers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on surface water and groundwater systems for three different geographical locations in Florida; Main Canal of Jacksonville Beach in the northeast of Florida adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean, Grace Lake in central Florida, far away from surrounded coastal line, and Mc Dill in Florida and adjacent to Tampa Bay and Mexican Gulf. An integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model was developed and simulated for all three cases, including surface water, groundwater, or a combination of both. For the case study of Main Canal-Jacksonville Beach, the investigation showed that a 76 cm sea-level rise in time horizon 2060 could increase the flow velocity of the tide cycle for the main canal's outlet and headwater. This case also revealed how the sea level rise could change the tide duration, potentially affecting the coastal ecosystem. As expected, sea-level rise can raise the groundwater level. Therefore, for the Mc Dill case, the effect of groundwater rise on soil storage and the performance of stormwater retention ponds is investigated. The study showed that sea-level rise increased the pond’s seasonal high water up to 40 cm by time horizon 2060. The reliability of the retention pond is dropped from 99% for the current condition to 54% for the future. The results also proved that the retention pond could not retain and infiltrate the designed treatment volume within 72 hours, which is a significant indication of increasing pollutants in the future. Grace Lake case study investigates the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge. This study showed that using the dynamically downscaled data of the groundwater recharge can decline up to 24 % by the mid-21st century. 

Keywords: groundwater, surface water, Florida, retention pond, tide, sea-level rise

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Authors: Mahsa Shafaei Bajestani, Mahmoud Yazdani, Aliakbar Golshani

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Artificial lightweight aggregates have a wide range of applications in industry and engineering. Nowadays, the usage of this material in geotechnical activities, especially as backfill in retaining walls has been growing due to the specific characteristics which make it a competent alternative to the conventional geotechnical materials. In practice, a material with lower weight but higher shear strength parameters would be ideal as backfill behind retaining walls because of the important roles that these parameters play in decreasing the overall active lateral earth pressure. In this study, two types of Light Expanded Clay Aggregates (LECA) produced in the Leca factory are investigated. LECA is made in a rotary kiln by heating natural clay at different temperatures up to 1200 °C making quasi-spherical aggregates with different sizes ranged from 0 to 25 mm. The loose bulk density of these aggregates is between 300 and 700 kN/m³. The purpose of this research is to determine the stress-strain behavior, shear strength parameters, and the energy absorption of LECA materials. Direct shear tests were conducted at five normal stresses of 25, 50, 75, 100, and 200 kPa. In addition, conventional triaxial compression tests were operated at confining pressures of 50, 100, and 200 kPa to examine stress-strain behavior. The experimental results show a high internal angle of friction and even a considerable amount of nominal cohesion despite the granular structure of LECA. These desirable properties along with the intrinsic low density of these aggregates make LECA as a very proper material in geotechnical applications. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that lightweight aggregates may have high energy absorption that is excellent alternative material in seismic isolations.

Keywords: Expanded clay, direct shear test, triaxial test, shear properties, energy absorption.

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Authors: Dale Dzemydiene, Aurelija Burinskiene, Arunas Miliauskas, Kristina Ciziuniene

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Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

Keywords: Multi-objective decision support, analysis, data validation, freight delivery, multi-modal transportation, genetic programming methods.

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Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain

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Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.

Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.

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Authors: Saleh Dabil

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This study investigates the level of existence of organized retail crime in supermarkets of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The store managers, security managers and general employees were asked about the types of retail crimes occur in the stores. Three independent variables were related to the report of organized retail theft. The independent variables are: 1) the supermarket profile (volume, location, standard and type of the store), 2) the social physical environment of the store (maintenance, cleanness and overall organizational cooperation), 3) the security techniques and loss prevention electronics techniques used. The theoretical framework of this study based on the social disorganization theory. This study concluded that the organized retail theft, in specific, organized theft is moderately apparent in Riyadh stores. The general result showed that the environment of the stores has an effect on the prevalence of organized retail theft with relation to the gender of thieves, age groups, working shift, type of stolen items as well as the number of thieves in one case. Among other reasons, some factors of the organized theft are: economic pressure of customers based on the location of the store. The dealing of theft also was investigated to have a clear picture of stores dealing with organized retail theft. The result showed that mostly, thieves sent without any action and sometimes given written warning. Very few cases dealt with by police. There are other factors in the study can be looked up in the text. This study suggests solving the problem of organized theft; first, is "the well distributing of the duties and responsibilities between the employees especially for security purposes". Second "Installation of strong security system" and "Making well-designed store layout". Third is "giving training for general employees" and "to give periodically security skills training of employees". There are other suggestions in the study can be looked up in the text.

Keywords: Organized Crime, Retail, Theft, Loss prevention, Store environment.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, D. D. Askerov, C. Ardil, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows drawing conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stageby- stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.

Keywords: aviation gas turbine engine, technical condition, fuzzy logic, neural networks, fuzzy statistics

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Authors: M. Ishak, K. Yamasaki, K. Maekawa

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Magnesium alloys have gained increased attention in recent years in automotive, electronics, and medical industry. This because of magnesium alloys have better properties than aluminum alloys and steels in respects of their low density and high strength to weight ratio. However, the main problems of magnesium alloy welding are the crack formation and the appearance of porosity during the solidification. This paper proposes a unique technique to weld two thin sheets of AZ31B magnesium alloy using a paste containing Ag nanoparticles. The paste containing Ag nanoparticles of 5 nm in average diameter and an organic solvent was used to coat the surface of AZ31B thin sheet. The coated sheet was heated at 100 °C for 60 s to evaporate the solvent. The dried sheet was set as a lower AZ31B sheet on the jig, and then lap fillet welding was carried out by using a pulsed Nd:YAG laser in a closed box filled with argon gas. The characteristics of the microstructure and the corrosion behavior of the joints were analyzed by opticalmicroscopy (OM), energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS), electron probe micro-analyzer (EPMA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and immersion corrosion test. The experimental results show that the wrought AZ31B magnesium alloy can be joined successfully using Ag nanoparticles. Ag nanoparticles insert promote grain refinement, narrower the HAZ width and wider bond width compared to weld without and insert. Corrosion rate of welded AZ31B with Ag nanoparticles reduced up to 44 % compared to base metal. The improvement of corrosion resistance of welded AZ31B with Ag nanoparticles due to finer grains and large grain boundaries area which consist of high Al content. β-phase Mg17Al12 could serve as effective barrier and suppressed further propagation of corrosion. Furthermore, Ag distribution in fusion zone provide much more finer grains and may stabilize the magnesium solid solution making it less soluble or less anodic in aqueous

Keywords: Laser welding, magnesium alloys, nanoparticles, mechanical property

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Because the status and mechanical parameters of discontinuities in the rock mass are included in the calculations, various methods of rock engineering classification are often used as a starting point for the design of different types of structures. The Q-system is one of the most frequently used methods for stability analysis and determination of support systems of underground structures in rock, including tunnel. In this method, six main parameters of the rock mass, namely, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), joint set number (Jn), joint roughness number (Jr), joint alteration number (Ja), joint water parameter (Jw) and Stress Reduction Factor (SRF) are required. In this regard, in order to achieve a reasonable and optimal design, identifying the effective parameters for the stability of the mentioned structures is one of the most important goals and the most necessary actions in rock engineering. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationships between the parameters of a system and how they interact with each other and, ultimately, the whole system. In this research, it has been attempted to determine the most effective parameters (key parameters) from the six parameters of rock mass in the Q-system using the Rock Engineering System (RES) method to improve the relationships between the parameters in the calculation of the Q value. The RES system is, in fact, a method by which one can determine the degree of cause and effect of a system's parameters by making an interaction matrix. In this research, the geomechanical data collected from the water conveyor tunnel of Azad Dam were used to make the interaction matrix of the Q-system. For this purpose, instead of using the conventional methods that are always accompanied by defects such as uncertainty, the Q-system interaction matrix is coded using a technique that is actually a statistical analysis of the data and determining the correlation coefficient between them. So, the effect of each parameter on the system is evaluated with greater certainty. The results of this study show that the formed interaction matrix provides a reasonable estimate of the effective parameters in the Q-system. Among the six parameters of the Q-system, the SRF and Jr parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively, and also the RQD and Jw parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively. Therefore, by developing this method, we can obtain a more accurate relation to the rock mass classification by weighting the required parameters in the Q-system.

Keywords: Q-system, Rock Engineering System, statistical analysis, rock mass, tunnel.

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Authors: C. Chahin, M. C. Hsu, Y. H. Lin, C. Y. Huang

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Electronics Products that achieve high levels of integrated communications, computing and entertainment, multimedia features in small, stylish and robust new form factors are winning in the market place. Due to the high costs that an industry may undergo and how a high yield is directly proportional to high profits, IC (Integrated Circuit) manufacturers struggle to maximize yield, but today-s customers demand miniaturization, low costs, high performance and excellent reliability making the yield maximization a never ending research of an enhanced assembly process. With factors such as minimum tolerances, tighter parameter variations a systematic approach is needed in order to predict the assembly process. In order to evaluate the quality of upcoming circuits, yield models are used which not only predict manufacturing costs but also provide vital information in order to ease the process of correction when the yields fall below expectations. For an IC manufacturer to obtain higher assembly yields all factors such as boards, placement, components, the material from which the components are made of and processes must be taken into consideration. Effective placement yield depends heavily on machine accuracy and the vision of the system which needs the ability to recognize the features on the board and component to place the device accurately on the pads and bumps of the PCB. There are currently two methods for accurate positioning, using the edge of the package and using solder ball locations also called footprints. The only assumption that a yield model makes is that all boards and devices are completely functional. This paper will focus on the Monte Carlo method which consists in a class of computational algorithms (information processed algorithms) which depends on repeated random samplings in order to compute the results. This method utilized in order to recreate the simulation of placement and assembly processes within a production line.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, placement yield, PCBcharacterization, electronics assembly

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Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

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Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: Building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype.

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Authors: Rupinder Bakshi, Geeta Walia, Anita Gupta

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Urinary Tract Infections are considered as one of the most common bacterial infections with an estimated annual global incidence of 150 million. Antimicrobial drug resistance is one of the major threats due to wide spread usage of uncontrolled antibiotics. In this study, a total number of 9149 urine samples were collected from R.H Patiala and processed in the Department of Microbiology G. M. C Patiala (January 2013 to December 2013). Urine samples were inoculated on MacConkey’s and blood agar plates and incubated at 370C for 24 hrs. The organisms were identified by colony characters, Gram’s staining, and biochemical reactions. Antimicrobial susceptibility of the isolates was determined against various antimicrobial agents (Hi – Media Mumbai India) by Kirby Bauer DISK diffusion method on Muller Hinton agar plates. Maximum patients were in the age group of 21-30 yrs followed by 31-40 yrs. Males (34%) are less prone to urinary tract infections than females (66%). Culture was positive in 25% of the samples. Escherichia coli was the most common isolate 60.3% followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae 13.5%, Proteus spp. 9% and Staphylococcus aureus 7.6%. Most of the urinary isolates were sensitive to, carbepenems, Aztreonam, Amikacin, and Piperacillin + Tazobactum. All the isolates showed a good sensitivity towards Nitrofurantoin (82%). ESBL production was found to be 70.6% in Escherichia coli and 29.4% in Klebsiella pneumonia. Susceptibility of ESBL producers to Imipenem, Nitrofurantoin and Amikacin were found to be 100%, 76%, and 75% respectively. Uropathogens are increasingly showing resistance to many antibiotics making empiric management of outpatient UTIs challenging. Ampicillin, Cotrimoxazole and Ciprofloxacin should not be used in empiric treatment. Nitrofurantoin could be used in lower urinary tract infection. Knowledge of uropathogens and their antimicrobial susceptibility pattern in a geographical region will help in appropriate and judicious antibiotic usage in a health care setup.

Keywords: Urinary Tract Infection, UTI, antibiotic susceptibility pattern, ESBL.

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Authors: Ana C. Sousa, Beatriz C. Santos, Fátima N. Serralha

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The Tagus estuary is heavily affected by industrial and urban activities, making bioremediation studies crucial for environmental preservation. Fuel contamination in the area can arise from various anthropogenic sources, such as oil spills from shipping, fuel storage and transfer operations, and industrial discharges. These pollutants can cause severe harm to the ecosystem and the organisms, including humans, that inhabit it. Nonetheless, there are always natural organisms with the ability to resist these pollutants and transform them into non-toxic or harmless substances, which defines the process of bioremediation. Exploring the microbial communities existing in soil and their capacity to break down hydrocarbons has the potential to enhance the development of more efficient bioremediation approaches. The aim of this investigation was to explore the existence of hydrocarbonoclastic microorganisms in six locations within the Tagus estuary, three on the north bank: Trancão River, Praia Fluvial do Cais das Colinas and Praia de Algés, and three on the south bank: Praia Fluvial de Alcochete, Praia Fluvial de Alburrica, and Praia da Trafaria. In all studied locations, native microorganisms of the genus Pseudomonas were identified. The bioremediation rate of common hydrocarbons like gasoline, hexane, and toluene was assessed using the redox indicator 2,6-dichlorophenolindophenol (DCPIP). Effective hydrocarbon-degrading bacterial strains were identified in all analyzed areas, despite adverse environmental conditions. The highest bioremediation rates were achieved for gasoline (68%) in Alburrica, hexane (65%) in Algés, and toluene (79%) in Algés. Generally, the bacteria demonstrated efficient degradation of hydrocarbons added to the culture medium, with higher rates of aerobic biodegradation of hydrocarbons observed. These findings underscore the necessity for further in situ studies to better comprehend the relationship between native microbial communities and the potential for pollutant degradation in soil.

Keywords: Biodegradability rate, hydrocarbonoclastic microorganisms, soil bioremediation, Tagus estuary.

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Authors: Ebipatei Victoria Tunyan, T. A. Cao, Cheol Young Ock

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Detecting subjectively biased statements is a vital task. This is because this kind of bias, when present in the text or other forms of information dissemination media such as news, social media, scientific texts, and encyclopedias, can weaken trust in the information and stir conflicts amongst consumers. Subjective bias detection is also critical for many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks like sentiment analysis, opinion identification, and bias neutralization. Having a system that can adequately detect subjectivity in text will boost research in the above-mentioned areas significantly. It can also come in handy for platforms like Wikipedia, where the use of neutral language is of importance. The goal of this work is to identify the subjectively biased language in text on a sentence level. With machine learning, we can solve complex AI problems, making it a good fit for the problem of subjective bias detection. A key step in this approach is to train a classifier based on BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) as upstream model. BERT by itself can be used as a classifier; however, in this study, we use BERT as data preprocessor as well as an embedding generator for a Bi-LSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) network incorporated with attention mechanism. This approach produces a deeper and better classifier. We evaluate the effectiveness of our model using the Wiki Neutrality Corpus (WNC), which was compiled from Wikipedia edits that removed various biased instances from sentences as a benchmark dataset, with which we also compare our model to existing approaches. Experimental analysis indicates an improved performance, as our model achieved state-of-the-art accuracy in detecting subjective bias. This study focuses on the English language, but the model can be fine-tuned to accommodate other languages.

Keywords: Subjective bias detection, machine learning, BERT–BiLSTM–Attention, text classification, natural language processing.

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu

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To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Forestry policy, logit, afforestation subsidy, afforestation policy.

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