Search results for: on demand routing

Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Ashley Hopwell, Alistair Duffy

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Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014) from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to understand the significance of factors identified using correlation. The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to the weekly and daily demand.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Deteriorating Products, Food Wholesalers, Principal Component Analysis and Variability Factors.

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Authors: Chia-Hui Huang, Han-Ying Kao

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In production planning (PP) periods with excess capacity and growing demand, the manufacturers have two options to use the excess capacity. First, it could do more changeovers and thus reduce lot sizes, inventories, and inventory costs. Second, it could produce in excess of demand in the period and build additional inventory that can be used to satisfy future demand increments, thus delaying the purchase of the next machine that is required to meet the growth in demand. In this study we propose an enhanced supply chain planning model with flexible planning capability. In addition, a 3D supply chain planning system is illustrated.

Keywords: Supply chain, capacity expansion, inventory management, planning system.

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Authors: Kainat Affrin, P. Reshma, G. Narendra Kumar

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Optimization of timetable is the need of the day for the rescheduling and routing of trains in real time. Trains are scheduled in parallel with the road transport vehicles to the same destination. As the number of trains is restricted due to single track, customers usually opt for road transport to use frequently. The air pollution increases as the density of vehicles on road transport is increased. Use of an alternate mode of transport like train helps in reducing air-pollution. This paper mainly aims at attracting the passengers to Train transport by proper rescheduling of trains using hybrid of stop-skip algorithm and iterative convex programming algorithm. Rescheduling of train bi-directionally is achieved on a single track with dynamic dual time and varying stops. Introduction of more trains attract customers to use rail transport frequently, thereby decreasing the pollution. The results are simulated using Network Simulator (NS-2).

Keywords: Air pollution, routing protocol, network simulator, rescheduling.

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Authors: R.N.Pise, S.A.Kulkarni, R.V.Pawar

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MultiProtocol Label Switching (MPLS) is an emerging technology that aims to address many of the existing issues associated with packet forwarding in today-s Internetworking environment. It provides a method of forwarding packets at a high rate of speed by combining the speed and performance of Layer 2 with the scalability and IP intelligence of Layer 3. In a traditional IP (Internet Protocol) routing network, a router analyzes the destination IP address contained in the packet header. The router independently determines the next hop for the packet using the destination IP address and the interior gateway protocol. This process is repeated at each hop to deliver the packet to its final destination. In contrast, in the MPLS forwarding paradigm routers on the edge of the network (label edge routers) attach labels to packets based on the forwarding Equivalence class (FEC). Packets are then forwarded through the MPLS domain, based on their associated FECs , through swapping the labels by routers in the core of the network called label switch routers. The act of simply swapping the label instead of referencing the IP header of the packet in the routing table at each hop provides a more efficient manner of forwarding packets, which in turn allows the opportunity for traffic to be forwarded at tremendous speeds and to have granular control over the path taken by a packet. This paper deals with the process of MPLS forwarding mechanism, implementation of MPLS datapath , and test results showing the performance comparison of MPLS and IP routing. The discussion will focus primarily on MPLS IP packet networks – by far the most common application of MPLS today.

Keywords: Forwarding equivalence class, incoming label map, label, next hop label forwarding entry.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Kumar Manoj, Ramesh Kumar, Kumari Arti

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A wireless Ad-hoc network consists of wireless nodes communicating without the need for a centralized administration, in which all nodes potentially contribute to the routing process.In this paper, we report the simulation results of four different scenarios for wireless ad hoc networks having thirty nodes. The performances of proposed networks are evaluated in terms of number of hops per route, delay and throughput with the help of OPNET simulator. Channel speed 1 Mbps and simulation time 600 sim-seconds were taken for all scenarios. For the above analysis DSR routing protocols has been used. The throughput obtained from the above analysis (four scenario) are compared as shown in Figure 3. The average media access delay at node_20 for two routes and at node_20 for four different scenario are compared as shown in Figures 4 and 5. It is observed that the throughput will degrade when it will follow different hops for same source to destination (i.e. it has dropped from 1.55 Mbps to 1.43 Mbps which is around 9.7%, and then dropped to 0.48Mbps which is around 35%).

Keywords: Throughput, Delay, DSR, OPNET, MANET, DSSS

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Authors: Abdur Rashid Sangi, Jianwei Liu, Zhiping Liu

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Mobile Ad Hoc network is an infrastructure less network which operates with the coordination of each node. Each node believes to help another node, by forwarding its data to/from another node. Unlike a wired network, nodes in an ad hoc network are resource (i.e. battery, bandwidth computational capability and so on) constrained. Such dependability of one node to another and limited resources of nodes can result in non cooperation by any node to accumulate its resources. Such non cooperation is known as selfish behavior. This paper discusses the performance analysis of very well known MANET single-path (i.e. AODV) and multi-path (i.e. AOMDV) routing protocol, in the presence of selfish behaviors. Along with existing selfish behaviors, a new variation is also studied. Extensive simulations were carried out using ns-2 and the study concluded that the multi-path protocol (i.e. AOMDV) with link disjoint configuration outperforms the other two configurations.

Keywords: performance analysis, single and multi path protocol, selfish behaviors.

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Authors: Ayodele Adekunle Faiyetole, Olumide Olawale Jegede

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This paper presents the experimental design and needs justifications for a localized intelligent parking system (L-IPS), ideal for quasi-close communities with increasing vehicular volume that depends on limited or constant parking facilities. For a constant supply in parking facilities, the demand for an increasing vehicular volume could lead to poor time conservation or extended travel time, traffic congestion or impeded mobility, and safety issues. Increased negative environmental and economic externalities are other associated and consequent downsides of disparities in demand and supply. This L-IPS is designed using a microcontroller, ultrasonic sensors, LED indicators, such that the current status, in terms of parking spots availability, can be known from the main entrance to the community or a parking zone on a LCD screen. As an advanced traffic management system (ATMS), the L-IPS is designed to resolve aspects of infrastructure-to-driver (I2D) communication and parking detection issues. Thus, this L-IPS can act as a timesaver for users by helping them know the availability of parking spots. Providing on-time, informed routing, to a next preference or seamless moving to berth on the available spot on a proximate facility as the case may be. Its use could also increase safety and increase mobility, and fuel savings and costs, therefore, reducing negative environmental and economic externalities due to transportation systems.

Keywords: Intelligent parking systems, localized intelligent parking system, intelligent transport systems, advanced traffic management systems, infrastructure-to-drivers communication.

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Authors: Jorge A. Ruiz-Vanoye, Ocotlán Díaz-Parra, Alejandro Fuentes-Penna, Daniel Vélez-Díaz, Edith Olaco García

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In this paper, we present the use of the discriminant analysis to select evolutionary algorithms that better solve instances of the vehicle routing problem with time windows. We use indicators as independent variables to obtain the classification criteria, and the best algorithm from the generic genetic algorithm (GA), random search (RS), steady-state genetic algorithm (SSGA), and sexual genetic algorithm (SXGA) as the dependent variable for the classification. The discriminant classification was trained with classic instances of the vehicle routing problem with time windows obtained from the Solomon benchmark. We obtained a classification of the discriminant analysis of 66.7%.

Keywords: Intelligent transportation systems, data-mining techniques, evolutionary algorithms, discriminant analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: M. Pushpalatha, Revathi Venkataraman, T. Ramarao

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Trust and Energy consumption is the most challenging issue in routing protocol design for Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), since mobile nodes are battery powered and nodes behaviour are unpredictable. Furthermore replacing and recharging batteries and making nodes co-operative is often impossible in critical environments like military applications. In this paper, we propose a trust based energy aware routing model in MANET. During route discovery, node with more trust and maximum energy capacity is selected as a router based on a parameter called 'Reliability'. Route request from the source is accepted by a node only if its reliability is high. Otherwise, the route request is discarded. This approach forms a reliable route from source to destination thus increasing network life time, improving energy utilization and decreasing number of packet loss during transmission.

Keywords: Mobile Ad Hoc Networks, Trust, Energy, Reliability, AODV, TEA-AODV.

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Authors: Niyati Parameswaran, Bharathi Muthu, Madiajagan Muthaiyan

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This paper presents Qmulus- a Cloud Based GPS Model. Qmulus is designed to compute the best possible route which would lead the driver to the specified destination in the shortest time while taking into account real-time constraints. Intelligence incorporated to Qmulus-s design makes it capable of generating and assigning priorities to a list of optimal routes through customizable dynamic updates. The goal of this design is to minimize travel and cost overheads, maintain reliability and consistency, and implement scalability and flexibility. The model proposed focuses on reducing the bridge between a Client Application and a Cloud service so as to render seamless operations. Qmulus-s system model is closely integrated and its concept has the potential to be extended into several other integrated applications making it capable of adapting to different media and resources.

Keywords: Cloud Services, GPS, Real-Time Constraints, Shortest Path, System Management and Traffic Routing

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Authors: Revathi Venkataraman, M. Pushpalatha, T. Rama Rao

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The lack of any centralized infrastructure in mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) is one of the greatest security concerns in the deployment of wireless networks. Thus communication in MANET functions properly only if the participating nodes cooperate in routing without any malicious intention. However, some of the nodes may be malicious in their behavior, by indulging in flooding attacks on their neighbors. Some others may act malicious by launching active security attacks like denial of service. This paper addresses few related works done on trust evaluation and establishment in ad hoc networks. Related works on flooding attack prevention are reviewed. A new trust approach based on the extent of friendship between the nodes is proposed which makes the nodes to co-operate and prevent flooding attacks in an ad hoc environment. The performance of the trust algorithm is tested in an ad hoc network implementing the Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV) protocol.

Keywords: AODV, Flooding, MANETs, trust estimation

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Authors: S. Areerachakul

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Nowadays, the increase of human population every year results in increasing of water usage and demand. Saen Saep canal is important canal in Bangkok. The main objective of this study is using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to estimate the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) on data from 11 sampling sites. The data is obtained from the Department of Drainage and Sewerage, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, during 2007-2011. The twelve parameters of water quality are used as the input of the models. These water quality indices affect the COD. The experimental results indicate that the ANN model provides a high correlation coefficient (R=0.89).

Keywords: Artificial neural network, chemical oxygen demand, estimate, surface water.

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Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi

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The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.

Keywords: Economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM.

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Authors: Ouadoudi Zytoune, Youssef Fakhri, Driss Aboutajdine

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This paper focuses on reducing the power consumption of wireless sensor networks. Therefore, a communication protocol named LEACH (Low-Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy) is modified. We extend LEACHs stochastic cluster-head selection algorithm by a modifying the probability of each node to become cluster-head based on its required energy to transmit to the sink. We present an efficient energy aware routing algorithm for the wireless sensor networks. Our contribution consists in rotation selection of clusterheads considering the remoteness of the nodes to the sink, and then, the network nodes residual energy. This choice allows a best distribution of the transmission energy in the network. The cluster-heads selection algorithm is completely decentralized. Simulation results show that the energy is significantly reduced compared with the previous clustering based routing algorithm for the sensor networks.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks, Energy efficiency, WirelessCommunications, Clustering-based algorithm.

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Authors: Rohaya Abdul Wahab, Raja Mohd Fuad Tengku Aziz, Nazaliza Othman, Sharifah Saleh, Nabihah Razali, Rozaimah Baharim, Md Hanif Md Nasir

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This paper will discuss flip chip methodology, in which I/O pads, standard cells, macros and bump cells array are placed in the floorplan, then routed using Astro place and route tool. Final DRC and LVS checking is done using Calibre verification tool. The design vehicle to run this methodology is an OpenRISC design targeted to Silterra 0.18 micrometer technology with 6 metal layers for routing. Astro has extensive support for flip chip placement and routing. Astro tool commands for flip chip are straightforward approach like the conventional standard wire bond packaging. However since we do not have flip chip commands in our Astro tool, no LEF file for bump cell and no LEF file for flip chip I/O pad, we create our own methodology to prepare for future flip chip tapeout. 

Keywords: Astro, bump cell, Calibre, flip chip, LEF, methodology, SCHEME, TCL.

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Authors: N C Santhosh Kumar, N K Kishore

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Using mini modules of Tmotes, it is possible to automate a small personal area network. This idea can be extended to large networks too by implementing multi-hop routing. Linking the various Tmotes using Programming languages like Nesc, Java and having transmitter and receiver sections, a network can be monitored. It is foreseen that, depending on the application, a long range at a low data transfer rate or average throughput may be an acceptable trade-off. To reduce the overall costs involved, an optimum number of Tmotes to be used under various conditions (Indoor/Outdoor) is to be deduced. By analyzing the data rates or throughputs at various locations of Tmotes, it is possible to deduce an optimal number of Tmotes for a specific network. This paper deals with the determination of optimum distances to reduce the cost and increase the reliability of the entire sensor network with Wireless Local Loop (WLL) capability.

Keywords: Average throughput, data rate, multi-hop routing, optimum data transfer, throughput, Tmotes, wireless local loop.

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Authors: Megumi Nishida, Naoya Motegi, Takurou Kikuchi, Tomoko Tokumura

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In recent years, the power system has been changed and a flexible power pricing system such as demand response has been sought in Japan. The demand response system works simply in the household sector and the owner as the decision-maker, can benefit from power saving. On the other hand, the execution of demand response in the office building is more complex than in the household because various people such as owners, building administrators and occupants are involved in the decision-making process. While the owners benefit from demand saving, the occupants are exposed to restricted benefits of a demand-saved environment. One of the reasons is that building systems are usually under centralized management and each occupant cannot choose freely whether to participate in demand response or not. In addition, it is unclear whether incentives give occupants the motivation to participate. However, the recent development of IT and building systems enables the personalized control of the office environment where each occupant can control the lighting level or temperature individually. Therefore, it can be possible to have a system which each occupant can make a decision of whether or not to participate in demand response in the office building. This study investigates personal responses to demand response requests, under the condition where each occupant can adjust their brightness individually in their workspace. Once workers participate in the demand response, their desk-lights are automatically turned off. The participation rates in the demand response events are compared among four groups, which are divided by different motivation, the presence, or absence of incentives and the method of participation. The result shows that there are significant differences of participation rates in demand response event between four groups. The method of participation has a large effect on the participation rate. The “Opt-out” groups where the occupants are automatically enrolled in a demand response event if they do not express non-participation have the highest participation rate in the four groups. Incentives also have an effect on the participation rate. This study also reports on the impact of low illumination office environment on the occupants, such as stress or fatigue. The electrocardiogram and the questionnaire are used to investigate the autonomic nervous activity and subjective fatigue symptoms of the occupants. There is no big difference between dim workspace during demand response event and bright workspace in autonomic nervous activity and fatigue.

Keywords: Demand response, illumination, questionnaire, electrocardiograph.

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Authors: Li Zhu, Binghua Wang, Yong Sun

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China is experiencing the rural development process, with the agritourism complex becoming one of the significant modes. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the energy performance of agritourism complex. This study focuses on a typical case of the agritourism complex and simulates the energy consumption performance on condition of the regular energy system. It was found that HVAC took 90% of the whole energy demand range. In order to optimize the energy supply structure, the hierarchical analysis was carried out on the level of architecture with three main factors such as construction situation, building types and energy demand types. Finally, the energy planning suggestion of the agritourism complex was put forward and the relevant results were obtained.

Keywords: Agritourism complex, energy planning, energy demand simulation, hierarchical structure model.

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Authors: Ramya Dorai, M. Rajaram

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A Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET) is a collection of mobile nodes that communicate with each other with wireless links and without pre-existing communication infrastructure. Routing is an important issue which impacts network performance. As MANETs lack central administration and prior organization, their security concerns are different from those of conventional networks. Wireless links make MANETs susceptible to attacks. This study proposes a new trust mechanism to mitigate wormhole attack in MANETs. Different optimization techniques find available optimal path from source to destination. This study extends trust and reputation to an improved link quality and channel utilization based Adhoc Ondemand Multipath Distance Vector (AOMDV). Differential Evolution (DE) is used for optimization.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Adhoc Ondemand Multi-Path Distance Vector (AOMDV), Trust and Reputation, Differential Evolution (DE), Link Quality, Channel Utilization.

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Authors: Soma Roychowdhury

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This paper deals with a periodic-review substitutable inventory system for a finite and an infinite number of periods. Here an upward substitution structure, a substitution of a more costly item by a less costly one, is assumed, with two products. At the beginning of each period, a stochastic demand comes for the first item only, which is quality-wise better and hence costlier. Whenever an arriving demand finds zero inventory of this product, a fraction of unsatisfied customers goes for its substitutable second item. An optimal ordering policy has been derived for each period. The results are illustrated with numerical examples. A sensitivity analysis has been done to examine how sensitive the optimal solution and the maximum profit are to the values of the discount factor, when there is a large number of periods.

Keywords: Multi-period model, inventory, random demand, upward substitution.

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Authors: Amir Sepasi Zahmati, Bahman Abolhassani, Ali Asghar Beheshti Shirazi, Ali Shojaee Bakhtiari

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A wireless sensor network with a large number of tiny sensor nodes can be used as an effective tool for gathering data in various situations. One of the major issues in wireless sensor networks is developing an energy-efficient routing protocol which has a significant impact on the overall lifetime of the sensor network. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical with static clustering routing protocol called Energy-Efficient Protocol with Static Clustering (EEPSC). EEPSC, partitions the network into static clusters, eliminates the overhead of dynamic clustering and utilizes temporary-cluster-heads to distribute the energy load among high-power sensor nodes; thus extends network lifetime. We have conducted simulation-based evaluations to compare the performance of EEPSC against Low-Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy (LEACH). Our experiment results show that EEPSC outperforms LEACH in terms of network lifetime and power consumption minimization.

Keywords: Clustering methods, energy efficiency, routingprotocol, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Yen-Cheng Chen, Fu-Chen Yang

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IETF defines mobility support in IPv6, i.e. MIPv6, to allow nodes to remain reachable while moving around in the IPv6 internet. When a node moves and visits a foreign network, it is still reachable through the indirect packet forwarding from its home network. This triangular routing feature provides node mobility but increases the communication latency between nodes. This deficiency can be overcome by using a Binding Update (BU) scheme, which let nodes keep up-to-date IP addresses and communicate with each other through direct IP routing. To further protect the security of BU, a Return Routability (RR) procedure was developed. However, it has been found that RR procedure is vulnerable to many attacks. In this paper, we will propose a lightweight RR procedure based on geometric computing. In consideration of the inherent limitation of computing resources in mobile node, the proposed scheme is developed to minimize the cost of computations and to eliminate the overhead of state maintenance during binding updates. Compared with other CGA-based BU schemes, our scheme is more efficient and doesn-t need nonce tables in nodes.

Keywords: Mobile IPv6, Binding update, Geometric computing.

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Authors: Hamed Rajabi, Naser Nematbakhsh, Naser Movahediniya

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IP multicasting is a key technology for many existing and emerging applications on the Internet. Furthermore, with increasing popularity of wireless devices and mobile equipment, it is necessary to determine the best way to provide this service in a wireless environment. IETF Mobile IP, that provides mobility for hosts in IP networks, proposes two approaches for mobile multicasting, namely, remote subscription (MIP-RS) and bi-directional tunneling (MIP-BT). In MIP-RS, a mobile host re-subscribes to the multicast groups each time it moves to a new foreign network. MIP-RS suffers from serious packet losses while mobile host handoff occurs. In MIP-BT, mobile hosts send and receive multicast packets by way of their home agents (HAs), using Mobile IP tunnels. Therefore, it suffers from inefficient routing and wastage of system resources. In this paper, we propose a protocol called Mobile Multicast support using Old Foreign Agent (MMOFA) for Mobile Hosts. MMOFA is derived from MIP-RS and with the assistance of Mobile host's Old foreign agent, routes the missing datagrams due to handoff in adjacent network via tunneling. Also, we studied the performance of the proposed protocol by simulation under ns-2.27. The results demonstrate that MMOFA has optimal routing efficiency and low delivery cost, as compared to other approaches.

Keywords: Mobile Multicast, Mobile IP, MMOFA, NS-2. 27.

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Authors: Manas Ranjan Kabat, Manoj Kumar Patel, Chita Ranjan Tripathy

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Many multimedia communication applications require a source to transmit messages to multiple destinations subject to quality of service (QoS) delay constraint. To support delay constrained multicast communications, computer networks need to guarantee an upper bound end-to-end delay from the source node to each of the destination nodes. This is known as multicast delay problem. On the other hand, if the same message fails to arrive at each destination node at the same time, there may arise inconsistency and unfairness problem among users. This is related to multicast delayvariation problem. The problem to find a minimum cost multicast tree with delay and delay-variation constraints has been proven to be NP-Complete. In this paper, we propose an efficient heuristic algorithm, namely, Economic Delay and Delay-Variation Bounded Multicast (EDVBM) algorithm, based on a novel heuristic function, to construct an economic delay and delay-variation bounded multicast tree. A noteworthy feature of this algorithm is that it has very high probability of finding the optimal solution in polynomial time with low computational complexity.

Keywords: EDVBM, Heuristic algorithm, Multicast tree, QoS routing, Shortest path.

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Authors: Karin Kandananond

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The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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Authors: Josip Visković, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Ines Ivić

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Housing loans play an important role in CEE countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans to households and their importance for economic activity and growth in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.

Keywords: CEE countries, Croatia, demand determinants, housing loans.

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Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

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Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: M. Naserian, M. Jooshaki, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M. Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, A. Oraee

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In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among a large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: Data-driven analysis, demand response, direct load control, HVAC system.

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Authors: Sami Baraketi, Jean-Marie Garcia, Olivier Brun

Abstract:

Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) is the dominant transport technology used in numerous high capacity backbone networks, based on optical infrastructures. Given the importance of costs (CapEx and OpEx) associated to these networks, resource management is becoming increasingly important, especially how the optical circuits, called “lightpaths”, are routed throughout the network. This requires the use of efficient algorithms which provide routing strategies with the lowest cost. We focus on the lightpath routing and wavelength assignment problem, known as the RWA problem, while optimizing wavelength fragmentation over the network. Wavelength fragmentation poses a serious challenge for network operators since it leads to the misuse of the wavelength spectrum, and then to the refusal of new lightpath requests. In this paper, we first establish a new Integer Linear Program (ILP) for the problem based on a node-link formulation. This formulation is based on a multilayer approach where the original network is decomposed into several network layers, each corresponding to a wavelength. Furthermore, we propose an efficient heuristic for the problem based on a greedy algorithm followed by a post-treatment procedure. The obtained results show that the optimal solution is often reached. We also compare our results with those of other RWA heuristic methods

Keywords: WDM, lightpath, RWA, wavelength fragmentation, optimization, linear programming, heuristic

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