Search results for: Future Scenarios

Authors: Elsheikh Asser

Abstract:

Time and cost are the main goals of the construction project management. The first schedule developed may not be a suitable schedule for beginning or completing the project to achieve the target completion time at a minimum total cost. In general, there are trade-offs between time and cost (TCT) to complete the activities of a project. This research presents genetic algorithms (GAs) multiobjective model for project scheduling considering different scenarios such as least cost, least time, and target time.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Time-cost trade-off.

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Authors: Wang Xu, Yao Yangyang, Lin Ying, Wang Zhenzhen

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Intelligent Transportation System integrates various modern advanced technologies into the ground transportation system, and it will be the goal of urban transport system in the future because of its comprehensive effects. However, it also brings some problems, such as project performance assessment, fairness of benefiting groups, fund management, which are directly related to its operation and implementation. Wuhan has difficulties in organizing transportation because of its nature feature (river and lake), therefore, calling Service of Taxi plays an important role in transportation. This paper researches on calling Service of Taxi in Wuhan, based on quantitative and qualitative analysis. It analyzes its operations management systematically, including business model, finance, usage analysis and users evaluation. As for business model, it is that the government leads the operation at the initial stage, and the third part dominates the operation at the mature stage, which not only eases the pressure of the third part and benefits the spread of the calling service at the initial stage, but also alleviates financial pressure of government and improve the efficiency of the operation at the mature stage. As for finance, it draws that this service will bring heavy financial burden of equipments, but it will be alleviated in the future because of its spread. As for usage analysis, through data comparison, this service can bring some benefits for taxi drivers, and time and spatial distribution of usage have certain features. As for user evaluation, it analyzes using group and the reason why choosing it. At last, according to the analysis above, the paper puts forward the potentials, limitations, and future development strategies for it.

Keywords: Assessment, Calling service of taxi, Operations management, Strategies, Using groups.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

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The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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Authors: Michaela Vašková

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With the increasing dependence of countries on the critical infrastructure, it increases their vulnerability. Big threat is primarily in the human factor (personnel of the critical infrastructure) and in terrorist attacks. It emphasizes the development of methodology for searching of weak points and their subsequent elimination. This article discusses methods for the analysis of safety in the objects of critical infrastructure. It also contains proposal for methodology for training employees of security services in the objects of the critical infrastructure and developing scenarios of attacks on selected objects of the critical infrastructure.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, object of critical infrastructure, protection, safety, security, security audit.

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Authors: Alibek Issakhov

Abstract:

In this paper presents the mathematical model of hydrothermal processes in thermal power plant with different wind direction scenarios in the water reservoir, which is solved by the Navier - Stokes and temperature equations for an incompressible fluid in a stratified medium. Numerical algorithm based on the method of splitting by physical parameters. Three dimensional Poisson equation is solved with Fourier method by combination of tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm).

Keywords: thermal power plant, hydrothermal process, large eddy simulation, water reservoir

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Authors: S. P. Yeong, L. M. King, S. S. Dol

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There have been rigorous research and development of unmanned aerial vehicles in the field of search and rescue (SAR) operation recently. UAVs reduce unnecessary human risks while assisting rescue efforts through aerial imagery, topographic mapping and emergency delivery. The application of UAVs in offshore and nearshore marine SAR missions is discussed in this paper. Projects that integrate UAV technology into their systems are introduced to highlight the great advantages and capabilities of UAVs. Scenarios where UAVs could provide invaluable assistance are also suggested.

Keywords: Marine SAR, nearshore, offshore, search and rescue, UAS, UAV.

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Authors: Robin C. Ladwig

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The future of work becomes less predictable which requires increasing adaptability of organizations to social and work changes. Society is transforming regarding gender identity in the sense that more people come forward to identify as trans and gender diverse (TGD). Organizations are ill-equipped to provide a safe and encouraging work environment by lacking inclusive organizational structures. The qualitative multi-method research about TGD inclusivity in the workplace explores the enablers and barriers for TGD individuals to satisfactorily engage in the work environment and organizational culture. Furthermore, these TGD insights are analyzed based on organizational implications and awareness from a leadership and management perspective. The semi-structured online interviews with TGD individuals and the photo-elicit open-ended questionnaire addressed to leadership and management in diversity, career development, and human resources have been analyzed with a critical grounded theory approach. Findings demonstrated the significance of TGD voices, the support of leadership and management, as well as the synergy between voices and leadership. Hence, it indicates practical implications such as the revision of exclusive language used in policies, data collection, or communication and reconsideration of organizational decision-making by leaders to include TGD voices.

Keywords: Future of work, occupational identity, organizational decision-making, trans and gender diverse identity.

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Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

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The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user.

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Authors: S. Mahalakshmi, B. Senthil Arasu

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate related changes can happen often and lead to risk and lot of uncertainty, but need to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed, so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and others. And the models required to compute this have to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out to the suggestion that the climate related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries, instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, we present a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios, and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves on the topic of increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, that in turn causing global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting credit and market risk of an institution, by understanding the transmission channels, and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II capital calculations, and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: Capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar II risk, scenario modeling.

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Authors: Asma Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

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This study investigated factors that influence mathematics achievement based on a sample of ninth-grade students (N  =  21,444) from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS09). Key aspects studied included efficacy in mathematics, interest and enjoyment of mathematics, identity with mathematics and future utility beliefs and how these influence mathematics achievement. The predictability of mathematics achievement based on these factors was assessed using correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression. Spearman rank correlations and multiple regression analyses indicated positive and statistically significant relationships between the explanatory variables: mathematics efficacy, identity with mathematics, interest in and future utility beliefs with the response variable, achievement in mathematics.

Keywords: Mathematics achievement, math efficacy, mathematics interest, identity.

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Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

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Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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Authors: Edward Paul Guillen, Diego Alejandro Chacon

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The VoIP networks as alternative method to traditional PSTN system has been implemented in a wide variety of structures with multiple protocols, codecs, software and hardware–based distributions. The use of cryptographic techniques let the users to have a secure communication, but the calculate throughput as well as the QoS parameters are affected according to the used algorithm. This paper analyzes the VoIP throughput and the QoS parameters with different commercial encryption methods. The measurement–based approach uses lab scenarios to simulate LAN and WAN environments. Security mechanisms such as TLS, SIAX2, SRTP, IPSEC and ZRTP are analyzed with μ-LAW and GSM codecs.

Keywords: VoIP, Secure VoIP, Throughput Analysis, VoIP QoS evaluation

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Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

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Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: Decision support system, event sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine.

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Authors: Martin Hans Knahl

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The Internet is the global data communications infrastructure based on the interconnection of both public and private networks using protocols that implement Internetworking on a global scale. Hence the control of protocol and infrastructure development, resource allocation and network operation are crucial and interlinked aspects. Internet Governance is the hotly debated and contentious subject that refers to the global control and operation of key Internet infrastructure such as domain name servers and resources such as domain names. It is impossible to separate technical and political positions as they are interlinked. Furthermore the existence of a global market, transparency and competition impact upon Internet Governance and related topics such as network neutrality and security. Current trends and developments regarding Internet governance with a focus on the policy-making process, security and control have been observed to evaluate current and future implications on the Internet. The multi stakeholder approach to Internet Governance discussed in this paper presents a number of opportunities, issues and developments that will affect the future direction of the Internet. Internet operation, maintenance and advisory organisations such as the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) or the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) are currently in the process of formulating policies for future Internet Governance. Given the controversial nature of the issues at stake and the current lack of agreement it is predicted that institutional as well as market governance will remain present for the network access and content.

Keywords: Internet Governance, ICANN, Democracy, Security

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Authors: Muhammad Ridhuan Tony Lim Abdullah, Saedah Siraj

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The learning society has currently transformed from 'wired society' to become 'mobile society' which is facilitated by wireless network. To suit to this new paradigm, m-learning was given birth and rapidly building its prospect to be included in the future curriculum. Research and studies on m-learning spruced up in numerous aspects but there is still scarcity in studies on curriculum design of m-learning. This study is a part of an ongoing bigger study probing into the m-learning curriculum for secondary schools. The paper reports on the first phase of the study which aims to probe into the needs of curriculum design for m-learning at the secondary school level and the researcher adopted the needs analysis method. Data accrued from responses on survey questionnaires based on Lickert-point scale were analyzed statistically. The findings from this preliminary study serve as a basis for m-learning curriculum development for secondary schools.

Keywords: curriculum design, e-learning, future curriculum, m-learning

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Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

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There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: Road Safety, Prediction, Accident, Model, Qatar.

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Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga

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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.

Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.

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Authors: V. Narasimha Raghavan, T. Peer Meera Labbai, N. Bhalaji, Suvitha Kesavan

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In this paper, a new approach based on the extent of friendship between the nodes is proposed which makes the nodes to co-operate in an ad hoc environment. The extended DSR protocol is tested under different scenarios by varying the number of malicious nodes and node moving speed. It is also tested varying the number of nodes in simulation used. The result indicates the achieved throughput by extended DSR is greater than the standard DSR and indicates the percentage of malicious drops over total drops are less in the case of extended DSR than the standard DSR.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Networks, DSR, Grudger protocol, Nodes.

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Authors: Mehdi Seifbarghy, Sajjad Jalali, Seyed Habib A. Rahmati

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Recently studies in area of supply chain network (SCN) have focused on the disruption issues in distribution systems. Also this paper extends the previous literature by providing a new biobjective model for cost minimization of designing a three echelon SCN across normal and failure scenarios with considering multi capacity option for manufacturers and distribution centers. Moreover, in order to solve the problem by means of LINGO software, novel model will be reformulated through a branch of LP-Metric method called Min-Max approach.

Keywords: Scenario programming, Distribution, Multi-echelon supply chain design, Reliable facility

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Authors: J. K. Shrestha, A. Benta, R. B. Lopes, N. Lopes

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This work provides a practical method for the development of rural road networks in rural areas of developing countries. The proposed methodology enables to determine obligatory points in the rural road network maximizing the number of settlements that have access to basic services within a given maximum distance. The proposed methodology is simple and practical, hence, highly applicable to real-world scenarios, as demonstrated in the definition of the road network for the rural areas of Nepal.

Keywords: Minimum spanning tree, nodal points, rural road network.

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Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

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In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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Authors: L. J. Fei, D. Sujan

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This paper presents the fundamentals of Origami engineering and its application in nowadays as well as future industry. Several main cores of mathematical approaches such as Huzita- Hatori axioms, Maekawa and Kawasaki-s theorems are introduced briefly. Meanwhile flaps and circle packing by Robert Lang is explained to make understood the underlying principles in designing crease pattern. Rigid origami and its corrugation patterns which are potentially applicable for creating transformable or temporary spaces is discussed to show the transition of origami from paper to thick material. Moreover, some innovative applications of origami such as eyeglass, origami stent and high tech origami based on mentioned theories and principles are showcased in section III; while some updated origami technology such as Vacuumatics, self-folding of polymer sheets and programmable matter folding which could greatlyenhance origami structureare demonstrated in Section IV to offer more insight in future origami.

Keywords: Origami, origami application, origami engineering, origami technology, rigid origami.

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

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The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modeling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modeling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modeling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.

Keywords: Content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series.

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Authors: Nur Razia Mohd Suradi, Hema Subramaniam, Marina Hassan, Siti Fatimah Omar

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Knowledge sharing culture contributes to a positive working environment. Currently, there is no platform for the Faculty of Industrial Information Technology (FIIT), Unisel academic staff to share knowledge among them. As it is done manually, the sharing process is through common meeting or by any offline discussions. There is no repository for future retrieval. However, with open source solution the development of knowledge based application may reduce the cost tremendously. In this paper we discuss about the domain on which this knowledge portal is being developed and also the deployment of open source tools such as JOOMLA, PHP programming language and MySQL. This knowledge portal is evidence that open source tools also reliable in developing knowledge based portal. These recommendations will be useful to the open source community to produce more open source products in future.

Keywords: Knowledge management, Portal, ContentManagement, JOOMLA.

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Authors: Ilqar Ramazanli

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The matrix completion problem has been studied broadly under many underlying conditions. In many real-life scenarios, we could expect elements from distinct columns or distinct positions to have a different cost. In this paper, we explore this generalization under adaptive conditions. We approach the problem under two different cost models. The first one is that entries from different columns have different observation costs, but, within the same column, each entry has a uniform cost. The second one is any two entry has different observation cost, despite being the same or different columns. We provide complexity analysis of our algorithms and provide tightness guarantees.

Keywords: Matrix completion, adaptive learning, heterogeneous cost, Matroid optimization.

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Authors: Wan-Ting Liao, Angela K. Tzeng

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Empathy has been an important issue in psychology, education, as well as cognitive neuroscience. Empathy has two major components: cognitive and emotional. Cognitive component refers to the ability to understand others’ perspectives, thoughts, and actions, whereas emotional component refers to understand how others feel. Empathy can be induced, attitude can then be changed, and with enough attitude change, helping behavior can occur. This finding leads us to two questions: is attitude change really necessary for prosocial behavior? And, what roles cognitive and affective empathy play? For the second question, participants with different psychopathic personality (PP) traits are critical because high PP people were found to suffer only affective empathy deficit. Their cognitive empathy shows no significant difference from the control group. 132 college students voluntarily participated in the current three-stage study. Stage 1 was to collect basic information including Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI), Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (PPI-R), Attitude Scale, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and demographic data. Stage two was for empathy induction with three controversial scenarios, namely domestic violence, depression with a suicide attempt, and an ex-offender. Participants read all three stories and then rewrite the stories by one of two perspectives (empathetic vs. objective). They would then complete the VAS and Attitude Scale one more time for their post-attitude and emotional status. Three IVs were introduced for data analysis: PP (High vs. Low), Responsibility (whether or not the character is responsible for what happened), and Perspective-taking (Empathic vs. Objective). Stage 3 was for the action. Participants were instructed to freely use the 17 tokens they received as donations. They were debriefed and interviewed at the end of the experiment. The major findings were people with higher empathy tend to take more action in helping. Attitude change is not necessary for prosocial behavior. The controversy of the scenarios and how familiar participants are towards target groups play very important roles. Finally, people with high PP tend to show more public prosocial behavior due to their affective empathy deficit. Pre-existing value and belief as well as recent dramatic social events seem to have a big impact and possibly reduce the effect of the independent variables (IV) in our paradigm.

Keywords: Affective empathy, attitude, cognitive empathy, prosocial behavior, psychopathic traits.

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Authors: Philip Doganis, Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

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Model Predictive Control has been previously applied to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain. To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve as input to the Model Predictive Control module.

Keywords: Forecasting, Model predictive control, production planning.

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Authors: Imen Ammari, Mourad Elloumi, Ala Eddine Barouni

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Visualizing “Courses – Pre – Required - Architecture" on the screen has proven to be useful and helpful for university actors and specially for students. In fact, these students can easily identify courses and their pre required, perceive the courses to follow in the future, and then can choose rapidly the appropriate course to register in. Given a set of courses and their prerequired, we present an algorithm for visualization a graph entitled “Courses-Pre-Required-Graph" that present courses and their prerequired in order to help students to recognize, lonely, what courses to take in the future and perceive the contain of all courses that they will study. Our algorithm using “Force Directed Placement" technique visualizes the “Courses-Pre-Required-Graph" in such way that courses are easily identifiable. The time complexity of our drawing algorithm is O (n2), where n is the number of courses in the “Courses-Pre-Required-Graph".

Keywords: Courses–Pre-Required-Architecture, Courses-Pre- Required-Graph, Courses-Pre-Required-Visualization, Force directed Placement, Resolution.

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Authors: Mohsen Ebrahimi

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In this paper, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is introduced and its advantages over ordinary steam injection is demonstrated. A simple simulation model is built and three scenarios of natural production, ordinary steam injection, and SAGD are compared in terms of their cumulative oil production and cumulative oil steam ratio. The results show that SAGD can significantly enhance oil production in quite a short period of time. However, since the distance between injection and production wells is short, the oil to steam ratio decreases gradually through time.

Keywords: Thermal recovery, Steam injection, SAGD, Enhanced oil recovery

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Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Dirk Odenthal, Steffen Muller

Abstract:

In this contribution a structure for high level lateral vehicle tracking control based on the disturbance observer is presented. The structure is characterized by stationary compensating side forces disturbances and guaranteeing a cooperative behavior at the same time. Driver inputs are not compensated by the disturbance observer. Moreover the structure is especially useful as it robustly stabilizes the vehicle. Therefore the parameters are selected using the Parameter Space Approach. The implemented algorithms are tested in real world scenarios.

Keywords: Disturbance observer, trajectory tracking, robust control, autonomous driving, cooperative driving

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