Search results for: Competing risks

Authors: F. Amin, S. Feizi

Abstract:

Big data has the potential to improve the quality of services; enable infrastructure that businesses depend on to adapt continually and efficiently; improve the performance of employees; help organizations better understand customers; and reduce liability risks. Analytics and marketing models of fixed and mobile operators are falling short in combating churn and declining revenue per user. Big Data presents new method to reverse the way and improve profitability. The benefits of Big Data and next-generation network, however, are more exorbitant than improved customer relationship management. Next generation of networks are in a prime position to monetize rich supplies of customer information—while being mindful of legal and privacy issues. As data assets are transformed into new revenue streams will become integral to high performance.

Keywords: Big Data, Next Generation Networks, Network Transformation.

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Authors: Feng-Chuan Pan, Fang-Yue Liu

Abstract:

Hospitals in southern Hualien teamed with the Hypertension Joint Care Network. Working with the network, the team provided a special designed health education to the individual who had been identified as a hypertension patient in the outpatient department. Some metabolism improvements achieved. This is a retrospective study by purposively taking 106 patients from a hospital between 2008 and 2010. Records of before and after education intervention of the objects was collected and analyzed to see the how the intervention affected the patients- hypertension control via clinical parameter monitoring. The results showed that the clinical indicators, the LDL-C, the cholesterol and the systolic blood pressure were significantly improved. The study provides evidence for the effectiveness of the network in controlling hypertension.

Keywords: hypertension, joint care management network, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome.

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Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi, Ethan S. Cantor, William T. Riddell, Jess W. Everett

Abstract:

The New Jersey Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs (NJ DMAVA) operates over 50 facilities throughout the state of New Jersey, US. NJ DMAVA is under a mandate to move toward decarbonization, which will eventually include eliminating the use of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating. At the same time, the organization requires increased resiliency regarding electric grid disruption. These competing goals necessitate adopting the use of on-site renewables such as photovoltaic and geothermal power, as well as implementing power control strategies through microgrids. Planning for these changes requires a detailed understanding of current and future electricity use on yearly, monthly, and shorter time scales, as well as a breakdown of consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper discusses case studies of two buildings that were simulated using the QUick Energy Simulation Tool (eQUEST). Both buildings use electricity from the grid and photovoltaics. One building also uses natural gas. While electricity use data are available in hourly intervals and natural gas data are available in monthly intervals, the simulations were developed using monthly and yearly totals. This approach was chosen to reflect the information available for most NJ DMAVA facilities. Once completed, simulation results are compared to metrics recommended by several organizations to validate energy use simulations. In addition to yearly and monthly totals, the simulated peak demands are compared to actual monthly peak demand values. The simulations resulted in monthly peak demand values that were within 30% of the measured values. These benchmarks will help to assess future energy planning efforts for NJ DMAVA.

Keywords: Building Energy Modeling, eQUEST, peak demand, smart meters.

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Authors: Maria Salama, Mohamed Kouta

Abstract:

Cloud Computing has recently emerged as a compelling paradigm for managing and delivering services over the internet. The rise of Cloud Computing is rapidly changing the landscape of information technology, and ultimately turning the longheld promise of utility computing into a reality. As the development of Cloud Computing paradigm is speedily progressing, concepts, and terminologies are becoming imprecise and ambiguous, as well as different technologies are interfering. Thus, it becomes crucial to clarify the key concepts and definitions. In this paper, we present the anatomy of Cloud Computing, covering its essential concepts, prominent characteristics, its affects, architectural design and key technologies. We differentiate various service and deployment models. Also, significant challenges and risks need are tackled in order to guarantee the long-term success of Cloud Computing. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the anatomy of Cloud Computing and pave the way for further research in this area.

Keywords: Anatomy, Aspects, Cloud Computing, Challenges.

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Authors: Yuekun Chen, Yousef Sardahi, Salam Hajjar, Christopher Greer

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective optimal design of a cascade control system for an underactuated mechanical system. Cascade control structures usually include two control algorithms (inner and outer). To design such a control system properly, the following conflicting objectives should be considered at the same time: 1) the inner closed-loop control must be faster than the outer one, 2) the inner loop should fast reject any disturbance and prevent it from propagating to the outer loop, 3) the controlled system should be insensitive to measurement noise, and 4) the controlled system should be driven by optimal energy. Such a control problem can be formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem such that the optimal trade-offs among these design goals are found. To authors best knowledge, such a problem has not been studied in multi-objective settings so far. In this work, an underactuated mechanical system consisting of a rotary servo motor and a ball and beam is used for the computer simulations, the setup parameters of the inner and outer control systems are tuned by NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm), and the dominancy concept is used to find the optimal design points. The solution of this problem is not a single optimal cascade control, but rather a set of optimal cascade controllers (called Pareto set) which represent the optimal trade-offs among the selected design criteria. The function evaluation of the Pareto set is called the Pareto front. The solution set is introduced to the decision-maker who can choose any point to implement. The simulation results in terms of Pareto front and time responses to external signals show the competing nature among the design objectives. The presented study may become the basis for multi-objective optimal design of multi-loop control systems.

Keywords: Cascade control, multi-loop control systems, multi-objective optimization, optimal control.

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Authors: Joe Walsh, Mike Climstein, Ian Timothy Heazlewood, Stephen Burke, Jyrki Kettunen, Kent Adams, Mark DeBeliso

Abstract:

Thousands of masters athletes participate quadrennially in the World Masters Games (WMG), yet this cohort of athletes remains proportionately under-investigated. Due to a growing global obesity pandemic in context of benefits of physical activity across the lifespan, the BMI trends for this unique population was of particular interest. The nexus between health, physical activity and aging is complex and has raised much interest in recent times due to the realization that a multifaceted approach is necessary in order to counteract the obesity pandemic. By investigating age based trends within a population adhering to competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors influencing this relationship.BMI was derived using data gathered on a total of 6,071 masters athletes (51.9% male, 48.1% female) aged 25 to 91 years ( =51.5, s =±9.7), competing at the Sydney World Masters Games (2009). Using linear and loess regression it was demonstrated that the usual tendency for prevalence of higher BMI increasing with age was reversed in the sample. This trend in reversal was repeated for both male and female only sub-sets of the sample participants, indicating the possibility of improved prevalence of BMI with increasing age for both the sample as a whole and these individual sub-groups.This evidence of improved classification in one index of health (reduced BMI) for masters athletes (when compared to the general population) implies there are either improved levels of this index of health with aging due to adherence to sport or possibly the reduced BMI is advantageous and contributes to this cohort adhering (or being attracted) to masters sport at older ages.

Keywords: Aging, masters athlete, Quetelet Index, sport

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Authors: Ilyas Khan. Liliane Pintelon, Harry Martin, Michael Shömig

Abstract:

The increasing costs of healthcare on one hand, and the rise in aging population and associated chronic disease, on the other hand, are putting increasing burden on the current health care system in many Western countries. For instance, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disease and in Europe, the cost of renal replacement therapy (RRT) is very significant to the total health care cost. However, the recent advancement in healthcare technology, provide the opportunity to treat patients at home in their own comfort. It is evident that home healthcare offers numerous advantages apparently, low costs and high patients’ quality of life. Despite these advantages, the intake of home hemodialysis (HHD) therapy is still low in particular in Germany. Many factors are accounted for the low number of HHD intake. However, this paper is focusing on patients’ safety-related factors of current HHD practices in Germany. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current HHD practices in Germany and to identify risks related factors if any exist. A case study has been conducted in a dialysis center which consists of four dialysis centers in the south of Germany. In total, these dialysis centers have 350 chronic dialysis patients, of which, four patients are on HHD. The centers have 126 staff which includes six nephrologists and 120 other staff i.e. nurses and administration. The results of the study revealed several risk-related factors. Most importantly, these centers do not offer allied health services at the pre-dialysis stage, the HHD training did not have an established curriculum; however, they have just recently developed the first version. Only a soft copy of the machine manual is offered to patients. Surprisingly, the management was not aware of any standard available for home assessment and installation. The home assessment is done by a third party (i.e. the machines and equipment provider) and they may not consider the hygienic quality of the patient’s home. The type of machine provided to patients at home is similar to the one in the center. The model may not be suitable at home because of its size and complexity. Even though portable hemodialysis machines, which are specially designed for home use, are available in the market such as the NxStage series. Besides the type of machine, no assistance is offered for space management at home in particular for placing the machine. Moreover, the centers do not offer remote assistance to patients and their carer at home. However, telephonic assistance is available. Furthermore, no alternative is offered if a carer is not available. In addition, the centers are lacking medical staff including nephrologists and renal nurses.

Keywords: Home hemodialysis, home hemodialysis practices, patients’ related risks in the current home hemodialysis practices, patient safety in home hemodialysis.

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Authors: N. Zaki Alamdari, M. Banihashemi, A. Mirghasemi

Abstract:

To estimate the risks of dam failure phenomenon, it is necessary to understand this phenomenon and the involved governing factors. Overtopping and piping are the two main reasons of earthdam failures. In the piping context, the piping is determined as a phenomenon which is occurred between two phases, the water liquid and the solid soil. In this investigation, the onset of piping and its development, as well as the movement of water in soil, are numerically approached. In this regard, a one-dimensional numerical model based on the mass-conserving finite-volume method is developed and applied in order to simulate the piping phenomenon in a continuous circular tunnel of given initial length and radius, located between upstream and downstream. The simulation result includes the time-variations of radius along the tunnel until the radius value reaches its critical and the piping phenomenon converts to overtopping.

Keywords: Earth dam, dam break, piping, internal erosion

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Authors: Marcello Bettoni

Abstract:

As a learning theory tries to borrow from science a framework to found its method, it shows paradoxes and paralysing contraddictions. This results, on one hand, from adopting a learning/teaching model as it were a mere “transfer of data" (mechanical learning approach), and on the other hand from borrowing the complexity theory (an indeterministic and non-linear model), that risks to vanish every educational effort. This work is aimed at describing existing criticism, unveiling the antinomic nature of such paradoxes, focussing on a view where neither the mechanical learning perspective nor the chaotic and nonlinear model can threaten and jeopardize the educational work. Author intends to go back over the steps that led to these paradoxes and to unveil their antinomic nature. Actually this could serve the purpose to explain some current misunderstandings about the real usefulness of Ict within the youth-s learning process and growth.

Keywords: Antinomy, complexity, Leibniz, paradox

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Authors: H. Zare Amadabadi, S. Soltani Gerdefaramarzi

Abstract:

In recent years, strategic alliances have taken increasing importance as a means to control competitive forces and to enter into new markets. Joint ventures are one of the most frequently used contractual forms in strategic alliances. There are various motivations for cooperation between two or more firms e.g., accessing to technical know-how, accessing to financial resources and managing risks. The firms must know about these motivations to encourage for establishing joint venture. So, it is important for managers to understand about these motives. On the other hand, the cooperation section is one of the most effective parts in each country. In this way, our study identifies goals of joint venture between cooperative manufacturing firms, and prioritizes those using TOPSIS1. The results show that the most important of joint venture goals are: accessing to managerial know-how, sharing total capital investment.

Keywords: Cooperative, Joint Venture, TOPSIS

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Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks and random premium income. We assume that the premium income process is a Poisson Process, and the claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang(n) processes, respectively. Both of the Gerber- Shiu functions with zero initial surplus and the probability generating functions (p.g.f.) of the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained.

Keywords: Poisson process, generalized Erlang risk process, Gerber-Shiu function, generating function, generalized Lundberg equation.

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Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

Abstract:

With ever-increasing use of equipment, device or more generally any electrical or electronic system, the chance of Electromagnetic incompatibility incidents has considerably increased which demands more attention to ensure the possible risks of these technologies. Therefore, complying with certain Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) rules and not overtaking an acceptable level of radiated emissions are utmost importance for the diffusion of electronic products. In this paper, developed measure tool and a convolutional neural network were used to propose a method to reduce the required time to carry out the final measurement phase of Electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurement according to the norm EN 55032 by predicting the radiated emission and determining the height of the antenna that meets the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: Antenna height, Convolutional Neural Network, Electromagnetic Compatibility, Mean Absolute Error, position error.

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Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

Abstract:

The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: Audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics.

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Authors: Walsh Joe, Climstein Mike, Heazlewood Ian Timothy, Burke Stephen, Kettunen Jyrki, Adams Kent, DeBeliso Mark

Abstract:

Whilst there is growing evidence that activity across the lifespan is beneficial for improved health, there are also many changes involved with the aging process and subsequently the potential for reduced indices of health. The nexus between health, physical activity and aging is complex and has raised much interest in recent times due to the realization that a multifaceted approached is necessary in order to counteract a growing obesity epidemic. By investigating age based trends within a population adhering to competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors influencing this relationship. BMI was derived using data gathered on a total of 6,071 masters athletes (51.9% male, 48.1% female) aged 25 to 91 years ( =51.5, s =±9.7), competing at the Sydney World Masters Games (2009). Using linear and loess regression it was demonstrated that the usual tendency for prevalence of higher BMI increasing with age was reversed in the sample. This trend in reversal was repeated for both male and female only sub-sets of the sample participants, indicating the possibility of improved prevalence of BMI with increasing age for both the sample as a whole and these individual subgroups. This evidence of improved classification in one index of health (reduced BMI) for masters athletes (when compared to the general population) implies there are either improved levels of this index of health with aging due to adherence to sport or possibly the reduced BMI is advantageous and contributes to this cohort adhering (or being attracted) to masters sport at older ages. Demonstration of this proportionately under-investigated World Masters Games population having an improved relationship between BMI and increasing age over the general population is of particular interest in the context of the measures being taken globally to curb an obesity epidemic.

Keywords: Aging, masters athlete, Quetelet Index, sport.

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: Irina Pyrlina

Abstract:

Author presents the results of a study conducted to identify criteria of efficient information system (IS) with serviceoriented architecture (SOA) realization and proposes a ranking method to evaluate SOA information systems using a set of architecture quality criteria before the systems are implemented. The method is used to compare 7 SOA projects and ranking result for SOA efficiency of the projects is provided. The choice of SOA realization project depends on following criteria categories: IS internal work and organization, SOA policies, guidelines and change management, processes and business services readiness, risk management and mitigation. The last criteria category was analyzed on the basis of projects statistics.

Keywords: multiple criteria threshold algorithm, serviceoriented architecture, SOA operational risks, efficiency criteria for IS architecture, projects ranking.

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert

Abstract:

A dent is a gross distortion of the pipe cross-section. Dent depth is defined as the maximum reduction in the diameter of the pipe compared to the original diameter. Pipeline dent finite element (FE) simulation and theoretical analysis are conducted in this paper to develop an understanding of the geometric characteristics and strain distribution in the pressurized dented pipe. Based on the results, the magnitude of the denting force increases significantly with increasing the internal pressure, and the maximum circumferential and longitudinal strains increase by increasing the internal pressure and the dent depth. The results can be used for characterizing dents and ranking their risks to the integrity of a pipeline.

Keywords: dented steel pipelines, Finite element model, Internal pressure, Strain distribution

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Authors: Oladotun A. Fatoki, Deborah A. Onifade

Abstract:

Spoilage occurs in plant produce due to the action of field and storage microorganisms. The conditions of storage can also cause physiological spoilage. Various methods exist to ensure that these food substances maintain their quality long after harvesting. However, many of these methods either fail to keep the plant for the required period or predispose the plant to other spoilage risks. The major shortcoming posed by the use of many antimicrobials is the chemical residues it deposits in the food substance. The use of plants in preservation has been in use for a long period, though little understood then, it served its purposes. A better understanding of the roles of these plant parts in increasing the shelf life of farm produce has helped in the creation of more effective and safer means of pest and microbial control. This can be extended to plants that have not been used for these purposes initially. Microbial sources should also be investigated as these have provided cheaper sources of secondary metabolites.

Keywords: Antimicrobials, Food preservation, Phytochemicals

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Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

Abstract:

Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: Empirical model, modeling, OCC, rainfall-runoff relationship.

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Authors: A. Peter Amala Sujith, T.V. Hymavathi, P. Yasoda Devi

Abstract:

Lutein is a dietary oxycarotenoid which is found to reduce the risks of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD). Supercritical fluid extraction of lutein esters from marigold petals was carried out and was found to be much effective than conventional solvent extraction. The saponification of pre-concentrated lutein esters to produce free lutein was studied which showed a composition of about 88% total carotenoids (UV-VIS spectrophotometry) and 90.7% lutein (HPLC). The lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of lutein esters in conventional medium was investigated. The optimal temperature, pH, enzyme concentration and water activity were found to be 50°C, 7, 15% and 0.33 respectively and the activity loss of lipase was about 25% after 8 times re-use in at 50°C for 12 days. However, the lipase catalyzed hydrolysis of lutein esters in conventional media resulted in poor conversions (16.4%).

Keywords: lutein, preconcentration, saponification, lipase

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Authors: Enkelejda Koka, Denard Veshi

Abstract:

Since 2011, in the name of ‘humanitarianism’ and deaths in the Mediterranean Sea, the legal and political justification delivered by Greece to manage the refugee crisis is pre-emptive interception. Although part of the EU, Greece adopted its own strategy. These practices have also created high risks for migrants generally resulting in non-rescue episodes and push-back practices having lethal consequences to the life of the irregular migrant. Thus, this article provides an analysis of the Greek ‘compassionate border work’ policy, a practice known as push-back. It is argued that these push-back practices violate international obligations, notably the ‘right to life’, the ‘duty to search and rescue’, the prohibition of inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and the principle of non-refoulement.

Keywords: Greece, migrants, push-back policy, violation of international law.

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Authors: Zaharani Ahmad, Nor Hashimah Jalaluddin

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to examine and identify the issue of linguistic redundancy in two competing grammars of Malay, namely the school grammar and the corpus grammar. The former is a normative grammar which is formally and prescriptively taught in the classroom, whereas the latter is a descriptive grammar that is informally acquired and mastered by the students as native speakers of the language outside the classroom. Corpus grammar is depicted based on its actual used in natural occurring texts, as attested in the corpus. It is observed that the grammar taught in schools is incompatible with the grammar used in the corpus. For instance, a noun phrase containing nominal reduplicated form which denotes plurality (i.e. murid-murid ‘students’ which is derived from murid ‘student’) and a modifier categorized as quantifiers (i.e. semua ‘all’, seluruh ‘entire’, and kebanyakan ‘most’) is not acceptable in the school grammar because the formation (i.e. semua murid-murid ‘all the students’ kebanyakan pelajar-pelajar ‘most of the students’) is claimed to be redundant, and redundancy is prohibited in the grammar. Redundancy is generally construed as the property of speech and language by which more information is provided than is precisely required for the message to be understood, so that, if some information is omitted, the remaining information will still be sufficient for the message to be comprehended. Thus, the correct construction to be used is strictly the reduplicated form (i.e. murid-murid ‘students’) or the quantifier plus the root (i.e. semua murid ‘all the students’) with the intention that the grammatical meaning of plural is not repeated. Nevertheless, the so-called redundant form (i.e. kebanyakan pelajar-pelajar ‘most of the students’) is frequently used in the corpus grammar. This study shows that there are a number of redundant forms occur in the morphology of the language, particularly in affixation, reduplication and combination of both. Apparently, the so-called redundancy has grammatical and socio-cultural functions in communication that is to give emphasis and to stress the importance of the information delivered by the speakers or writers.

Keywords: Corpus grammar, morphology, redundancy, school grammar.

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Authors: Niklas Echterhoff, Benjamin Amshoff, Jürgen Gausemeier

Abstract:

Due to today-s fierce competition, companies have to be proactive creators of the future by effectively developing innovations. Especially radical innovations allow high profit margins – but they also entail high risks. One possibility to realize radical innovations and reduce the risk of failure is cross-industry innovation (CII). CII brings together problems and solution ideas from different industries. However, there is a lack of systematic ways towards CII. Bridging this gap, the present paper provides a systematic approach towards planned CII. Starting with the analysis of potentials, the definition of promising search strategies is crucial. Subsequently, identified solution ideas need to be assessed. For the most promising ones, the adaption process has to be systematically planned – regarding the risk affinity of a company. The introduced method is explained on a project from the furniture industry.

Keywords: Analogy building, cross-industry innovations, knowledge transfer, solution adaption.

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Authors: Z. H. Shi, T. J. Dou, H. Zhang, H. X. Huang, N. Zeng

Abstract:

The contamination of significant quantities of soils and sediments with uranium and other actinide elements as a result of nuclear activity poses many environmental risks. The electrokinetic process is one of the most promising remediation techniques for sludge, sediment, and saturated or unsaturated soils contaminated with heavy metals and radionuclides. However, secondary waste is a major concern for soil contaminated with nuclides. To minimize the generation of secondary wastes, this study used the anion and cation exchange membranes to improve the performance of the experimental apparatus. Remediation experiments of uranium-contaminated soil were performed with different agents. The results show that using acetic acid and EDTA as chelating agents clearly enhances the migration ability of the uranium. The ion exchange membranes (IEMs) used in the experiments not only reduce secondary wastes, but also, keep the soil pH stable.

Keywords: Electrokinetic remediation, ion exchange membranes, soil, uranium.

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Authors: E. Cenderelli, E. Bruno, G. Iacoviello, A. Lazzini

Abstract:

The financial sector is exposed to the risk of cyber-attacks like any other industrial sector. Furthermore, the topic of CybeRisk (cyber risk) has become particularly relevant given that Information Technology (IT) attacks have increased drastically in recent years, and cannot be stopped by single organizations requiring a response at international and national level. IT risk is never a matter purely for the IT manager, although he clearly plays a key role. A bank's risk management function requires a thorough understanding of the evolving risks as well as the tools and practical techniques available to address them. Upon the request of European and national legislation regarding CybeRisk in the financial system, banks are therefore called upon to strengthen the operational model for CybeRisk management. This will require an important change with a more intense collaboration with the structures that deal with information security for the development of an ad hoc system for the evaluation and control of this type of risk. The aim of the work is to propose a framework for the management and control of CybeRisk that will bridge the gap in the literature regarding the understanding and consideration of CybeRisk as an integral part of business management. The IT function has a strong relevance in the management of CybeRisk, which is perceived mainly as operational risk, but with a positive tendency on the part of risk management to the identification of CybeRisk assessment methods that are increasingly complete, quantitative and able to better describe the possible impacts on the business. The paper provides answers to the research questions: Is it possible to define a CybeRisk governance structure able to support the comparison between risk and security? How can the relationships between IT assets be integrated into a cyberisk assessment framework to guarantee a system of protection and risks control? From a methodological point of view, this research uses a case study approach. The choice of “Monte dei Paschi di Siena” was determined by the specific features of one of Italy’s biggest lenders. It is chosen to use an intensive research strategy: an in-depth study of reality. The case study methodology is an empirical approach to explore a complex and current phenomenon that develops over time. The use of cases has also the advantage of allowing the deepening of aspects concerning the "how" and "why" of contemporary events, on which the scholar has little control. The research bases on quantitative data and qualitative information obtained through semi-structured interviews of an open-ended nature and questionnaires to directors, members of the audit committee, risk, IT and compliance managers, and those responsible for internal audit function and anti-money laundering. The added value of the paper can be seen in the development of a framework based on a mapping of IT assets from which it is possible to identify their relationships for purposes of a more effective management and control of cyber risk.

Keywords: Bank, CybeRisk, information technology, risk management.

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Authors: N. Boutra, N. Ravot, J. Benoit, O. Picon

Abstract:

Submarine power cables used for offshore wind farms electric energy distribution and transmission are subject to numerous threats. Some of the risks are associated with transport, installation and operating in harsh marine environment. This paper describes the feasibility of an electromagnetic low frequency sensing technique for submarine power cable failure prediction. The impact of a structural damage shape and material variability on the induced electric field is evaluated. The analysis is performed by modeling the cable using the finite element method, we use sensitivity analysis in order to identify the main damage characteristics affecting electric field variation. Lastly, we discuss the results obtained.

Keywords: Electromagnetism, defect, finite element method, sensitivity analysis, submarine power cables.

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Authors: Zh.Mingaleva, K.Balkova

Abstract:

Innovations and innovative activity get the increasing value for successful financial and economic activity of the countries and regions. The level of innovative sphere development determines place of a country or a region in world economy and forms a basis of steady economic growth. This article is devoted to different aspects of organization of the national economic safety in the conditions of innovative development, its problems, risks and threats. Economy can be considered as aspiring for transition to innovative way only with finding of economic safety: financial independence, power stability and technological progress. There are statistical indicators, defining the level of economic security and factors, threatening economic safety of the state. The research is based on the analysis of factors and indicators in conditions of innovative development. The paper is illustrated by the examples of possible estimated system of the economic safety level.

Keywords: Economic safety, innovative activity, innovative development, innovative economy

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Authors: Ahmed Shuhaiber, Hans Lehmann

Abstract:

Mobile payments have been deployed by businesses for more than a decade. Customers use mobile payments if they trust in this relatively new payment method, have a belief and confidence in, as well as reliance on its services and applications. Despite its potential, the current literature shows that there is lack of customer trust in B2C mobile payments, and a lack of studies that determine the factors that influence their trust in these payments; which make these factors yet to be understood, especially in the Middle East region. Thus, this study aims to explore the factors that influence customer trust in mobile payments. The empirical data for this explorative study was collected by establishing four focus group sessions in the UAE. The results indicate that the explored significant factors can be classified into five main groups: customer characteristics, environmental (social and cultural) influences, provider characteristics, mobile-device characteristics, and perceived risks.

Keywords: B2C mobile payments, Mobile commerce, Mobile payment services and application, Trust in mobile payments.

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Authors: Rowland M. Brucken

Abstract:

This paper argues nation-building theories that prioritize democratic governance best explain the successful postindependence development of Botswana. Three main competing schools of thought exist regarding the sequencing of policies that should occur to re-build weakened or failed states. The first posits that economic development should receive foremost attention, while democratization and a binding sense of nationalism can wait. A second group of experts identified constructing a sense of nationalism among a populace is necessary first, so that the state receives popular legitimacy and obedience that are prerequisites for development. Botswana, though, transitioned into a multi-party democracy and prosperous open economy due to the utilization of traditional democratic structures, enlightened and accountable leadership, and an educated technocratic civil service. With these political foundations already in place when the discovery of diamonds occurred, the resulting revenues were spent wisely on projects that grew the economy, improved basic living standards, and attracted foreign investment. Thus democratization preceded, and therefore provided an accountable basis for, economic development that might otherwise have been squandered by greedy and isolated elites to the detriment of the greater population. Botswana was one of the poorest nations in the world at the time of its independence in 1966, with little infrastructure, a dependence on apartheid South Africa for trade, and a largely subsistence economy. Over the next thirty years, though, its economy grew the fastest of any nation in the world. The transparent and judicious use of diamond returns is only a partial explanation, as the government also pursued economic diversification, mass education, and rural development in response to public needs. As nation-building has become a project undertaken by nations and multilateral agencies such as the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Botswana may provide best practices that others should follow in attempting to reconstruct economically and politically unstable states.

Keywords: Botswana, democratization, economic development, nation-building.

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Authors: M. Morri, A. Soualmia, P. Belleudy

Abstract:

Vegetation affects the mean and turbulent flow structure. It may increase flood risks and sediment transport. Therefore, it is important to develop analytical approaches for the bed shear stress on vegetated bed, to predict resistance caused by vegetation. In the recent years, experimental and numerical models have both been developed to model the effects of submerged vegetation on open-channel flow. In this paper, different analytic models are compared and tested using the criteria of deviation, to explore their capacity for predicting the mean velocity and select the suitable one that will be applied in real case of rivers. The comparison between the measured data in vegetated flume and simulated mean velocities indicated, a good performance, in the case of rigid vegetation, whereas, Huthoff model shows the best agreement with a high coefficient of determination (R2=80%) and the smallest error in the prediction of the average velocities.

Keywords: Analytic Models, Comparison, Mean Velocity, Vegetation.

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