Search results for: Bayesian Bivariate Estimator

Authors: Goodness C. Aye

Abstract:

This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil price volatility, Food price, Bivariate GARCH-in- mean VAR, Asymmetric.

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Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Amer I. Al-Omari

Abstract:

Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling (SDERSS) method is introduced and considered for estimating the population mean. The SDERSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) and stratified simple set sampling (SSRS). It is shown that the SDERSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than the estimators using SRS, SRSS and SSRS when the underlying distribution of the variable of interest is symmetric or asymmetric.

Keywords: Double extreme ranked set sampling, Extreme ranked set sampling, Ranked set sampling, Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling.

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Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar, Khaled A. AL-Rumaih

Abstract:

This paper presents performance comparison of three estimation techniques used for peak load forecasting in power systems. The three optimum estimation techniques are, genetic algorithms (GA), least error squares (LS) and, least absolute value filtering (LAVF). The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Different forecasting models are considered. Actual recorded data is used to perform the study. The performance of the above three optimal estimation techniques is examined. Advantages of each algorithms are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Forecasting, Least error squares, Least absolute Value, Genetic algorithms

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Authors: G. Dimauro, S. Impedovo, M.G. Lucchese, R. Modugno, G. Pirlo

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This paper presents the analysis of similarity between local decisions, in the process of alphanumeric hand-prints classification. From the analysis of local characteristics of handprinted numerals and characters, extracted by a zoning method, the set of classification decisions is obtained and the similarity among them is investigated. For this purpose the Similarity Index is used, which is an estimator of similarity between classifiers, based on the analysis of agreements between their decisions. The experimental tests, carried out using numerals and characters from the CEDAR and ETL database, respectively, show to what extent different parts of the patterns provide similar classification decisions.

Keywords: Handwriting Recognition, Optical Character Recognition, Similarity Index, Zoning.

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Authors: Ł. Januszkiewicz, G. Bacci, H. Gierszal, M. Luise

Abstract:

In this paper channel estimation techniques are considered as the support methods for OFDM transmission systems based on Non Binary LDPC (Low Density Parity Check) codes. Standard frequency domain pilot aided LS (Least Squares) and LMMSE (Linear Minimum Mean Square Error) estimators are investigated. Furthermore, an iterative algorithm is proposed as a solution exploiting the NB-LDPC channel decoder to improve the performance of the LMMSE estimator. Simulation results of signals transmitted through fading mobile channels are presented to compare the performance of the proposed channel estimators.

Keywords: LDPC codes, LMMSE, OFDM, turbo channelestimation.

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, Gaussian processes, robot control learning, tracked vehicles.

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Authors: A. Thabet, M. Boutayeb, M. N. Abdelkrim

Abstract:

This paper investigates a method for the state estimation of nonlinear systems described by a class of differential-algebraic equation (DAE) models using the extended Kalman filter. The method involves the use of a transformation from a DAE to ordinary differential equation (ODE). A relevant dynamic power system model using decoupled techniques will be proposed. The estimation technique consists of a state estimator based on the EKF technique as well as the local stability analysis. High performances are illustrated through a simulation study applied on IEEE 13 buses test system.

Keywords: Power system, Dynamic decoupled model, Extended Kalman Filter, Convergence analysis, Time computing.

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Authors: Jonah Gamba

Abstract:

In this paper the problem of estimating the time delay between two spatially separated noisy sinusoidal signals by system identification modeling is addressed. The system is assumed to be perturbed by both input and output additive white Gaussian noise. The presence of input noise introduces bias in the time delay estimates. Normally the solution requires a priori knowledge of the input-output noise variance ratio. We utilize the cascade of a self-tuned filter with the time delay estimator, thus making the delay estimates robust to input noise. Simulation results are presented to confirm the superiority of the proposed approach at low input signal-to-noise ratios.

Keywords: LMS algorithm, Self-tuned filter, Systemidentification, Time delay estimation, .

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Authors: Hossein Riazoshams, Midi Habshah, Jr., Mohamad Bakri Adam

Abstract:

The detection of outliers is very essential because of their responsibility for producing huge interpretative problem in linear as well as in nonlinear regression analysis. Much work has been accomplished on the identification of outlier in linear regression, but not in nonlinear regression. In this article we propose several outlier detection techniques for nonlinear regression. The main idea is to use the linear approximation of a nonlinear model and consider the gradient as the design matrix. Subsequently, the detection techniques are formulated. Six detection measures are developed that combined with three estimation techniques such as the Least-Squares, M and MM-estimators. The study shows that among the six measures, only the studentized residual and Cook Distance which combined with the MM estimator, consistently capable of identifying the correct outliers.

Keywords: Nonlinear Regression, outliers, Gradient, LeastSquare, M-estimate, MM-estimate.

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh, John E. Daniels, Joseph W. McKean

Abstract:

In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Keywords: Asymptotic relative efficiency, non-linear rank-based, robust, rank estimates, variogram.

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Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi, Miloud Frikel

Abstract:

The Maximum entropy principle in spectral analysis was used as an estimator of Direction of Arrival (DoA) of electromagnetic or acoustic sources impinging on an array of sensors, indeed the maximum entropy operator is very efficient when the signals of the radiating sources are ergodic and complex zero mean random processes which is the case for cosmic sources. In this paper, we present basic review of the maximum entropy method (MEM) which consists of rank one operator but not a projector, and we elaborate a new operator which is full rank and sum of all possible projectors. Two dimensional Simulation results based on Monte Carlo trials prove the resolution power of the new operator where the MEM presents some erroneous fluctuations.

Keywords: Maximum entropy, Cosmic source, Localization, operator, projector, azimuth, elevation, DoA, circular array.

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Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

We address the integer frequency offset (IFO) estimation under the influence of the timing offset (TO) in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. Incorporating the IFO and TO into the symbol set used to represent the received OFDM symbol, we investigate the influence of the TO on the IFO, and then, propose a combining method between two consecutive OFDM correlations, reducing the influence. The proposed scheme has almost the same complexity as that of the conventional schemes, whereas it does not need the TO knowledge contrary to the conventional schemes. From numerical results it is confirmed that the proposed scheme is insensitive to the TO, consequently, yielding an improvement of the IFO estimation performance over the conventional schemes when the TO exists.

Keywords: Estimation, integer frequency offset, OFDM, timing offset.

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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Authors: N. Bhalaji, A. R. Sivaramkrishnan, Sinchan Banerjee, V. Sundar, A. Shanmugam

Abstract:

Nodes in mobile Ad Hoc Network (MANET) do not rely on a central infrastructure but relay packets originated by other nodes. Mobile ad hoc networks can work properly only if the participating nodes collaborate in routing and forwarding. For individual nodes it might be advantageous not to collaborate, though. In this conceptual paper we propose a new approach based on relationship among the nodes which makes them to cooperate in an Adhoc environment. The trust unit is used to calculate the trust values of each node in the network. The calculated trust values are being used by the relationship estimator to determine the relationship status of nodes. The proposed enhanced protocol was compared with the standard DSR protocol and the results are analyzed using the network simulator-2.

Keywords: Reliable Routing, DSR, Grudger, Adhoc network.

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Authors: Zilong Feng, Hong Li, Yang Liu, Siriguleng He

Abstract:

In this article, an adaptive least-squares mixed finite element method is studied for pseudo-parabolic integro-differential equations. The solutions of least-squares mixed weak formulation and mixed finite element are proved. A posteriori error estimator is constructed based on the least-squares functional and the posteriori errors are obtained.

Keywords: Pseudo-parabolic integro-differential equation, least squares mixed finite element method, adaptive method, a posteriori error estimates.

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Authors: P. Bergl

Abstract:

Numerous divergence measures (spectral distance, cepstral distance, difference of the cepstral coefficients, Kullback-Leibler divergence, distance given by the General Likelihood Ratio, distance defined by the Recursive Bayesian Changepoint Detector and the Mahalanobis measure) are compared in this study. The measures are used for detection of abrupt spectral changes in synthetic AR signals via the sliding window algorithm. Two experiments are performed; the first is focused on detection of single boundary while the second concentrates on detection of a couple of boundaries. Accuracy of detection is judged for each method; the measures are compared according to results of both experiments.

Keywords: Abrupt changes detection, autoregressive model, divergence measure.

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Authors: B. M. Mohan, Sanjeeb Kumar Kar

Abstract:

In this paper a unified approach via block-pulse functions (BPFs) or shifted Legendre polynomials (SLPs) is presented to solve the linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control problem. Also a recursive algorithm is proposed to solve the above problem via BPFs. By using the elegant operational properties of orthogonal functions (BPFs or SLPs) these computationally attractive algorithms are developed. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed approaches a numerical example is included.

Keywords: Linear quadratic Gaussian control, linear quadratic estimator, linear quadratic regulator, time-invariant systems, orthogonal functions, block-pulse functions, shifted legendre polynomials.

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Authors: Hemant Kumar, Nilendu Das

Abstract:

A study based on ANN structure gives us the information to predict the size of the future in realizing a past event. ANN, IMD (Indian meteorological department) data and remote sensing were used to enable a number of parameters for calculating the size that may occur in the future. A threshold selected specifically above the high-frequency harvest reached the area during the selected seismic activity. In the field of human and local biodiversity it remains to obtain the right parameter compared to the frequency of impact. But during the study the assumption is that predicting seismic activity is a difficult process, not because of the parameters involved here, which can be analyzed and funded in research activity.

Keywords: ANN, Bayesian class, earthquakes, IMD.

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Authors: Alexander Efremov

Abstract:

A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.

Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.

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Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In statistics parameter theory, usually the parameter estimations have two kinds, one is the least-square estimation (LSE), and the other is the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE). Due to the determining theorem of minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE), the parameter estimation of BLUE in linear model is most ideal. But since the calculations are complicated or the covariance is not given, people are hardly to get the solution. Therefore, people prefer to use LSE rather than BLUE. And this substitution will take some losses. To quantize the losses, many scholars have presented many kinds of different relative efficiencies in different views. For the linear weighted regression model, this paper discusses the relative efficiencies of LSE of β to BLUE of β. It also defines two new relative efficiencies and gives their lower bounds.

Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Lower bound, Parameter estimation.

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Authors: Mostafa.A. Fellani, Daw .E. Abaid

Abstract:

This paper deals with stability analysis for synchronous reluctance motors drive. Special attention is paid to the transient performance with variations in motor's parameters such as Ld and Rs. A study of the dynamic control using d-q model is presented first in order to clarify the stability of the motor drive system. Based on the experimental parameters of the synchronous reluctance motor, this paper gives some simulation results using MATLAB/SIMULINK software packages. It is concluded that the motor parameters, especially Ld, affect the estimator stability and hence the whole drive system.

Keywords: Dynamic Simulation, MATLAB, PWM-inverter, Reluctance Machine, Sensorless Control

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Authors: E. S. Gower, M. O. J. Hawksford

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An algorithm for learning an overcomplete dictionary using a Cauchy mixture model for sparse decomposition of an underdetermined mixing system is introduced. The mixture density function is derived from a ratio sample of the observed mixture signals where 1) there are at least two but not necessarily more mixture signals observed, 2) the source signals are statistically independent and 3) the sources are sparse. The basis vectors of the dictionary are learned via the optimization of the location parameters of the Cauchy mixture components, which is shown to be more accurate and robust than the conventional data mining methods usually employed for this task. Using a well known sparse decomposition algorithm, we extract three speech signals from two mixtures based on the estimated dictionary. Further tests with additive Gaussian noise are used to demonstrate the proposed algorithm-s robustness to outliers.

Keywords: expectation-maximization, Pitman estimator, sparsedecomposition

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Authors: Muhammad Raza Ali, Tim Morris

Abstract:

Skin color is an important visual cue for computer vision systems involving human users. In this paper we combine skin color and optical flow for detection and tracking of skin regions. We apply these techniques to gesture recognition with encouraging results. We propose a novel skin similarity measure. For grouping detected skin regions we propose a novel skin region grouping mechanism. The proposed techniques work with any number of skin regions making them suitable for a multiuser scenario.

Keywords: Bayesian tracking, chromaticity space, optical flowgesture recognition

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Authors: Frederick Wedzerai Nyakudya

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In this paper, we examine the relationship between human capital, personal wealth and social capital to explain the differences in start-up rates between female and male entrepreneurs. Since our dependent variable is dichotomous, we examine the determinants of these using a maximum likelihood logit estimator. We used the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor database covering the period 2006 to 2009 with 421 usable cases drawn from the Lower Layer Super Output Areas in East Midlands in the United Kingdom. We found evidence indicating that a female positively moderates the positive relationships between indicators of human capital and personal wealth with start-up activity. The findings have implications for programs, policies, and practices to encourage more females to engage in start-up activity.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, gender gap, women's entrepreneurship.

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Authors: Girija Chetty, Monica Singh

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a novel approach for ascertaining human identity based on fusion of profile face and gait biometric cues The identification approach based on feature learning in PCA-LDA subspace, and classification using multivariate Bayesian classifiers allows significant improvement in recognition accuracy for low resolution surveillance video scenarios. The experimental evaluation of the proposed identification scheme on a publicly available database [2] showed that the fusion of face and gait cues in joint PCA-LDA space turns out to be a powerful method for capturing the inherent multimodality in walking gait patterns, and at the same time discriminating the person identity..

Keywords: Biometrics, gait recognition, PCA, LDA, Eigenface, Fisherface, Multivariate Gaussian Classifier

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Authors: Komlan Sedzro

Abstract:

We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance.

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Authors: M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud

Abstract:

Sensor-based Activity Recognition systems usually accounts which sensors have been activated to perform an activity. The system then combines the conditional probabilities of those sensors to represent different activities and takes the decision based on that. However, the information about the sensors which are not activated may also be of great help in deciding which activity has been performed. This paper proposes an approach where the sensory data related to both usage and non-usage of objects are utilized to make the classification of activities. Experimental results also show the promising performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Naïve Bayesian-based classification, Activity recognition, sensor data, object-usage model.

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Authors: Antonio Mauricio F. L. Miranda de Sá

Abstract:

Partial coherence between two signals removing the contribution of a periodic, deterministic signal is proposed for evaluating the interrelationship in multivariate systems. The estimator expression was derived and shown to be independent of such periodic signal. Simulations were used for obtaining its critical value, which were found to be the same as those for Gaussian signals, as well as for evaluating the technique. An Illustration with eletroencephalografic (EEG) signals during photic stimulation is also provided. The application of the proposed technique in both simulation and real EEG data indicate that it seems to be very specific in removing the contribution of periodic sources. The estimate independence of the periodic signal may widen partial coherence application to signal analysis, since it could be used together with simple coherence to test for contamination in signals by a common, periodic noise source.

Keywords: Partial coherence, periodic input, spectral analysis, statistical signal processing.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

Abstract:

In this contribution a newly developed elearning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.

Keywords: E-learning environments, intelligent agents, user modeling, Bayesian Networks, computational intelligence.

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