Search results for: Transmission Expansion Planning

Authors: Joel S. Mtebe, Aron Kondoro, Mussa M. Kissaka, Elia Kibga

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Sub-Saharan Africa is described as the second fastest growing in mobile phone penetration in the world more than in the United States or the European Union. Mobile phones have been used to provide a lot of opportunities to improve people’s lives in the region such as in banking, marketing, entertainment, and paying for various bills such as water, TV, and electricity. However, the potential of mobile phones to enhance teaching and learning has not been explored. This study presents an experience of developing and delivering SMS based quiz questions used to assess mastery of subject content knowledge of science and mathematics secondary school teachers in Tanzania. The SMS quizzes were used as a follow up support mechanism to 500 teachers who participated in a project to upgrade subject content knowledge of teachers in science and mathematics subjects in Tanzania. Quizzes of 10-15 questions were sent to teachers each week for 8 weeks and the results were analyzed using SPSS. Results show that teachers who participated in chemistry and biology subjects have better performance compared to those who participated in mathematics and physics subjects. Teachers reported some challenges that led to poor performance, This research has several practical implications for those who are implementing or planning to use mobile phones in teaching and learning especially in rural secondary schools in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: Mobile learning, e-learning, educational technologies, SMS, secondary education, assessment.

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Authors: M. J. Baum, B. Gibbes, A. Grinham, S. Albert, D. Gale, P. Fisher

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Alongside the rapid expansion of Seawater Reverse Osmosis technologies there is a concurrent increase in the production of hypersaline brine by-products. To minimize environmental impact, these by-products are commonly disposed into open-coastal environments via submerged diffuser systems as inclined dense jet outfalls. Despite the widespread implementation of this process, diffuser designs are typically based on small-scale laboratory experiments under idealistic quiescent conditions. Studies concerning diffuser performance in the field are limited. A set of experiments were conducted to assess the near field characteristics of brine disposal at the Gold Coast Desalination Plant offshore multiport diffuser. The aim of the field experiments was to determine the trajectory and dilution characteristics of the plume under various discharge configurations with production ranging 66 – 100% of plant operative capacity. The field monitoring system employed an unprecedented static array of temperature and electrical conductivity sensors in a three-dimensional grid surrounding a single diffuser port. Complimenting these measurements, Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers were also deployed to record current variability over the depth of the water column and wave characteristics. Recorded data suggested the open-coastal environment was highly active over the experimental duration with ambient velocities ranging 0.0 – 0.5 m∙s^-1, with considerable variability over the depth of the water column observed. Variations in background electrical conductivity corresponding to salinity fluctuations of ± 1.7 g∙kg^-1 were also observed. Increases in salinity were detected during plant operation and appeared to be most pronounced 10 – 30 m from the diffuser, consistent with trajectory predictions described by existing literature. Plume trajectories and respective dilutions extrapolated from salinity data are compared with empirical scaling arguments. Discharge properties were found to adequately correlate with modelling projections. Temporal and spatial variation of background processes and their subsequent influence upon discharge outcomes are discussed with a view to incorporating the influence of waves and ambient currents in the design of brine outfalls into the future.

Keywords: Brine disposal, desalination, field study, inclined dense jets, negatively buoyant discharge.

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Authors: M. Vogiatzis, K. Perakis

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Spatial-explicit and up-to-date land use/land cover information is fundamental for spatial planning, land management, sustainable development, and sound decision-making. In the last decade, many satellite-derived land cover products at different spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions have been developed, such as the European Copernicus Land Cover product. However, more efficient and detailed information for land use/land cover is required at the regional or local scale. A typical Mediterranean basin with a complex landscape comprised of various forest types, crops, artificial surfaces, and wetlands was selected to test and develop our approach. In this study, we investigate the improvement of Copernicus Land Cover product (CLC2018) using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 pixel-based classification based on all available existing geospatial data (Forest Maps, LPIS, Natura2000 habitats, cadastral parcels, etc.). We examined and compared the performance of the Random Forest classifier for land use/land cover mapping. In total, 10 land use/land cover categories were recognized in Landsat 8 and 11 in Sentinel-2A. A comparison of the overall classification accuracies for 2018 shows that Landsat 8 classification accuracy was slightly higher than Sentinel-2A (82,99% vs. 80,30%). We concluded that the main land use/land cover types of CLC2018, even within a heterogeneous area, can be successfully mapped and updated according to CLC nomenclature. Future research should be oriented toward integrating spatiotemporal information from seasonal bands and spectral indexes in the classification process.

Keywords: land use/land cover, random forest, Landsat-8 OLI, Sentinel-2A MSI, Corine land cover

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Authors: Rawia M. Khalil, Ahmed A. Abd El Rahman, Mahfouz A. Kassem, Mohamed S. El Ridi, Mona M. Abou Samra, Ghada E. A. Awad, Soheir S. Mansy

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Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) have gained great attention for the topical treatment of skin associated fungal infection as they facilitate the skin penetration of loaded drugs. Our work deals with the preparation of nystatin loaded solid lipid nanoparticles (NystSLNs) using the hot homogenization and ultrasonication method. The prepared NystSLNs were characterized in terms of entrapment efficiency, particle size, zeta potential, transmission electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, rheological behavior and in vitro drug release. A stability study for 6 months was performed. A microbiological study was conducted in male rats infected with Candida albicans, by counting the colonies and examining the histopathological changes induced on the skin of infected rats. The results showed that SLNs dispersions are spherical in shape with particle size ranging from 83.26±11.33 to 955.04±1.09 nm. The entrapment efficiencies are ranging from 19.73±1.21 to 72.46±0.66% with zeta potential ranging from -18.9 to -38.8 mV and shear-thinning rheological Behavior. The stability studies done for 6 months showed that nystatin (Nyst) is a good candidate for topical SLN formulations. A least number of colony forming unit/ ml (cfu/ml) was recorded for the selected NystSLN compared to the drug solution and the commercial Nystatin® cream present in the market. It can be fulfilled from this work that SLNs provide a good skin targeting effect and may represent promising carrier for topical delivery of Nyst offering the sustained release and maintaining the localized effect, resulting in an effective treatment of cutaneous fungal infection.

Keywords: Candida infections, Hot homogenization, Nystatin, Solid lipid nanoparticles, Stability, Topical delivery.

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Authors: Idil Kanter Otcu

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Nowadays, due to the growing problems of energy supply and the drastic reduction of natural non-renewable resources, the development of new applications in the energy sector and steps towards greater efficiency in energy consumption are required. Since buildings account for a large share of energy consumption, increasing the structural density of buildings causes an increase in energy consumption. This increase in energy consumption means that energy efficiency approaches to building design and the integration of new systems using emerging technologies become necessary in order to curb this consumption. As new systems for productive usage of generated energy are developed, buildings that require less energy to operate, with rational use of resources, need to be developed. One solution for reducing the energy requirements of buildings is through landscape planning, design and application. Requirements such as heating, cooling and lighting can be met with lower energy consumption through planting design, which can help to achieve more efficient and rational use of resources. Within this context, rather than a planting design which considers only the ecological and aesthetic features of plants, these considerations should also extend to spatial organization whereby the relationship between the site and open spaces in the context of climatic elements and planting designs are taken into account. In this way, the planting design can serve an additional purpose. In this study, a landscape design which takes into consideration location, local climate morphology and solar angle will be illustrated on a sample building project.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, landscape design, plant design, xeriscape landscape.

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Authors: Greg Turner, Bin Lu, Cheer-Sun Yang

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As computing technology advances, smartphone applications can assist student learning in a pervasive way. For example, the idea of using mobile apps for the PA Common Trees, Pests, Pathogens, in the field as a reference tool allows middle school students to learn about trees and associated pests/pathogens without bringing a textbook. While working on the development of three heterogeneous mobile apps, we ran into numerous challenges. Both the traditional waterfall model and the more modern agile methodologies failed in practice. The waterfall model emphasizes the planning of the duration for each phase. When the duration of each phase is not consistent with the availability of developers, the waterfall model cannot be employed. When applying Agile Methodologies, we cannot maintain the high frequency of the iterative development review process, known as ‘sprints’. In this paper, we discuss the challenges and solutions. We propose a hybrid model known as the Relay Race Methodology to reflect the concept of racing and relaying during the process of software development in practice. Based on the development project, we observe that the modeling of the relay race transition between any two phases is manifested naturally. Thus, we claim that the RRM model can provide a de fecto rather than a de jure basis for the core concept in the software development model. In this paper, the background of the project is introduced first. Then, the challenges are pointed out followed by our solutions. Finally, the experiences learned and the future works are presented.

Keywords: Agile methods, mobile apps, software process model, waterfall model.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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This paper considers a comparative analysis of multiple criteria decision making analysis methods for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in military fighter aircraft selection for the air force fleet planning. The evaluation criteria governing the decision analysis process are determined from the literature for the three existing military combat aircraft. Military fighter aircraft selection problem is structured using "preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS)” approach in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDMA). Systematic comparisons were made with existing MCDMA methods (PARIS, and TOPSIS) to verify the stability and accuracy of the results obtained. The proposed integrated MCDMA systematic approach is expected to address the issues encountered in the aircraft selection process. The comparative analysis results show that the proposed method is an effective and accurate tool that can help analysts make better strategic, tactical, and operational decisions.

Keywords: aircraft, military fighter aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making, multiple criteria decision making analysis, mean weight, entropy weight, MCDMA, PARIS, TOPSIS, Saab Gripen, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon

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Authors: Mpai Mokoena, Nsenda Lukumwena

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South Africa is one of the driest countries in the world and is facing a water crisis. In addition to inadequate infrastructure and poor planning, the country is experiencing high rates of water wastage due to pipe leaks. This study outlines the level of water wastage and develops a smart solution to efficiently manage and reduce the effects of pipe leaks, while monitoring the situation before and after fixing the pipe leaks. To understand the issue in depth, a literature review of journal papers and government reports was conducted. A questionnaire was designed and distributed to the general public. Additionally, the municipality office was contacted from a managerial perspective. The analysis from the study indicated that the majority of the citizens are aware of the water crisis and are willing to participate positively to decrease the level of water wasted. Furthermore, the response from the municipality acknowledged that more practical solutions are needed to reduce water wastage, and resources to attend to pipe leaks swiftly. Therefore, this paper proposes a specific solution for municipalities, local plumbers and citizens to minimize the effects of pipe leaks. The solution provides web and mobile application platforms to report and manage leaks swiftly. The solution is beneficial to the country in achieving water security and would promote a culture of responsibility toward water usage.

Keywords: Urban Distribution Networks, leak management, mobile application, responsible citizens, water crisis, water security.

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Authors: Zarabizan Zakaria, Syuhaida Ismail, Aminah Md Yusof

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Project management process starts from the planning stage up to the stage of completion (handover of buildings, preparation of the final accounts and the closing balance). Seeing as this process is not easy to be implemented efficiently and effectively, the issue of unsuccessful delivery as per contract in construction has become a major problem for construction projects. These issues have been blamed mainly on inefficient traditional construction practices that continue to dominate the current industry. This is due to several factors, such as environments of construction technology, sophisticated design and customer demand, that are constantly changing and influencing, either directly or indirectly, to the practice of management. Among the identified influences are physical environment, social environment, information environment, political and moral atmosphere. Therefore, this paper is emerged to determine the fundamental variables in the final account closing success in construction project. This aim can be achieved via its objectives of identifying the key constraints to the closing of final accounts in construction projects in Malaysia, investigating solutions to the identified constraints and analysing the relative levels of impact of the identified constraints. It is expected that this paper provides effective measures to avoid or at least reduce the problems in final account closing to the optimum level. It is also anticipated that the finding or outcome reported in this paper could address the unsuccessful contributors in final account closing and define tools for their mitigation for the better development of construction project.

Keywords: Fundamental variables, closing of final account, construction project, Malaysia.

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Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

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In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: Break Even Point, Fuzzy Crisp Data, Fuzzy Sets, Productivity, Productivity Cycle, Total Productive Maintenance.

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Authors: Yousef Bakhbakhi, Mourad Boumaza

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Only recently have water ethics received focused interest in the international water community. Because water is metabolically basic to life, an ethical dimension persists in every decision related to water. Water ethics at once express human society-s approach to water and act as guidelines for behaviour. Ideas around water are often implicit and embedded as assumptions. They can be entrenched in behaviour and difficult to contest because they are difficult to “see". By explicitly revealing the ethical ideas underlying water-related decisions, human society-s relationship with water, and with natural systems of which water is part, can be contested and shifted or be accepted with conscious intention by human society. In recent decades, improved understanding of water-s importance for ecosystem functioning and ecological services for human survival is moving us beyond this growth-driven, supplyfocused management paradigm. Environmental ethics challenge this paradigm by extending the ethical sphere to the environment and thus water or water Resources management per se. An ethical approach is a legitimate, important, and often ignored approach to effect change in environmental decision making. This qualitative research explores principles of water ethics and examines the underlying ethical precepts of selected water policy examples. The constructed water ethic principles act as a set of criteria against which a policy comparison can be established. This study shows that water Resources management is a progressive issue by embracing full public participation and a new planning model, and knowledgegeneration initiatives.

Keywords: water resources, environmental management, publicparticipation.

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Authors: PoiSim Khiew, WeeSiong Chiu, ThianKhoonTan, Shahidan Radiman, Roslan Abd-Shukor, Muhammad Azmi Abd-Hamid, ChinHua Chia

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Magnetic and semiconductor nanomaterials exhibit novel magnetic and optical properties owing to their unique size and shape-dependent effects. With shrinking the size down to nanoscale region, various anomalous properties that normally not present in bulk start to dominate. Ability in harnessing of these anomalous properties for the design of various advance electronic devices is strictly dependent on synthetic strategies. Hence, current research has focused on developing a rational synthetic control to produce high quality nanocrystals by using organometallic approach to tune both size and shape of the nanomaterials. In order to elucidate the growth mechanism, transmission electron microscopy was employed as a powerful tool in performing real time-resolved morphologies and structural characterization of magnetic (Fe3O4) and semiconductor (ZnO) nanocrystals. The current synthetic approach is found able to produce nanostructures with well-defined shapes. We have found that oleic acid is an effective capping ligand in preparing oxide-based nanostructures without any agglomerations, even at high temperature. The oleate-based precursors and capping ligands are fatty acid compounds, which are respectively originated from natural palm oil with low toxicity. In comparison with other synthetic approaches in producing nanostructures, current synthetic method offers an effective route to produce oxide-based nanomaterials with well-defined shapes and good monodispersity. The nanocystals are well-separated with each other without any stacking effect. In addition, the as-synthesized nanopellets are stable in terms of chemically and physically if compared to those nanomaterials that are previous reported. Further development and extension of current synthetic strategy are being pursued to combine both of these materials into nanocomposite form that will be used as “smart magnetic nanophotocatalyst" for industry waste water treatment.

Keywords: Metal oxide nanomaterials, Nanophotocatalyst, Organometallic synthesis, Morphology Control

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, A. Torma, L. T. Kóczy

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The development, operation and maintenance of Integrated Waste Management Systems (IWMS) affects essentially the sustainable concern of every region. The features of such systems have great influence on all of the components of sustainability. In order to reach the optimal way of processes, a comprehensive mapping of the variables affecting the future efficiency of the system is needed such as analysis of the interconnections among the components and modeling of their interactions. The planning of a IWMS is based fundamentally on technical and economical opportunities and the legal framework. Modeling the sustainability and operation effectiveness of a certain IWMS is not in the scope of the present research. The complexity of the systems and the large number of the variables require the utilization of a complex approach to model the outcomes and future risks. This complex method should be able to evaluate the logical framework of the factors composing the system and the interconnections between them. The authors of this paper studied the usability of the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach modeling the future operation of IWMS’s. The approach requires two input data set. One is the connection matrix containing all the factors affecting the system in focus with all the interconnections. The other input data set is the time series, a retrospective reconstruction of the weights and roles of the factors. This paper introduces a novel method to develop time series by content analysis.

Keywords: Content analysis, factors, integrated waste management system, time series.

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Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

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To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: Goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression.

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Authors: M. C. Venter, G. Hitge, S. C. Krygsman, J. Thiart

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For decades, South Africa has been planning transportation systems from a supply, rather than a demand side, perspective. In terms of parking, this relates to requiring the minimum parking provision that is enforced by city officials. Newer insight is starting to indicate that South Africa needs to re-think this philosophy in light of a new policy environment that desires a different outcome. Urban policies have shifted from reliance on the private car for access, to employing a wide range of alternative modes. Car dominated travel is influenced by various parameters, of which the availability and location of parking plays a significant role. The question is therefore, what is the right strategy to achieve the desired transport outcomes for SA. The focus of this paper is used to assess this issue with regard to parking provision, and specifically at a tertiary institution. A parking audit was conducted at the Stellenbosch campus of Stellenbosch University, monitoring occupancy at all 60 parking areas, every hour during business hours over a five-day period. The data from this survey was compared with the prescribed number of parking bays according to the Stellenbosch Municipality zoning scheme (requiring a minimum of 0.4 bays per student). The analysis shows that by providing 0.09 bays per student, the maximum total daily occupation of all the parking areas did not exceed an 80% occupation rate. It is concluded that the prevailing parking standards are not supportive of the new urban and transport policy environment, but that it is extremely conservative from a practical demand point of view.

Keywords: Parking provision, parking requirements, travel behaviour, travel demand management.

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Authors: S. A. Nta

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Application of health risk assessment methods is important in order to comprehend the risk of human exposure to heavy metals and other dangerous pollutants. Four soil samples were collected at distances of 10, 20, 30 m and the control 100 m away from the dump site at depths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The collected soil samples were examined for Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Ni using standard methods. The health risks via the main pathways of human exposure to heavy metal were detected using relevant standard equations. Hazard quotient was calculated to determine non-carcinogenic health risk for each individual heavy metal. Life time cancer risk was calculated to determine the cumulative life cancer rating for each exposure pathway. The estimated health risk values for adults and children were generally lower than the reference dose. The calculated hazard quotient for the ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways were less than unity. This means that there is no detrimental concern to the health on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. The life time cancer risk 5.4 × 10^-2 was higher than the acceptable threshold value of 1 × 10^-4 which is reflected to have significant health effects on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. Good hygienic practices are recommended to ease the potential risk to children and adult who are exposed to contaminated soils. Also, the local authorities should be made aware of such health risks for the purpose of planning the management strategy accordingly.

Keywords: Health risk assessment, pollution, heavy metals, soil.

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Authors: Ravi Kiran Pothamsetty, Radha Rani Ghosh, Baby Paul Thaliath

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Radiation therapy has undergone many advancements and evloved from 2D to 3D. Recently, with rapid pace of drug discoveries, cutting edge technology, and clinical trials has made innovative advancements in computer technology and treatment planning and upgraded to intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) which delivers in homogenous dose to tumor and normal tissues. The present study was a hospital-based experience comparing two different conformal radiotherapy techniques for brain tumors. This analytical study design has been conducted at Regional Cancer Centre, India from January 2014 to January 2015. Ten patients have been selected after inclusion and exclusion criteria. All the patients were treated on Artiste Siemens Linac Accelerator. The tolerance level for maximum dose was 6.0 Gyfor lenses and 54.0 Gy for brain stem, optic chiasm and optical nerves as per RTOG criteria. Mean and standard deviation values of PTV98%, PTV 95% and PTV 2% in IMRT were 93.16±2.9, 95.01±3.4 and 103.1±1.1 respectively; for 3DCRT were 91.4±4.7, 94.17±2.6 and 102.7±0.39 respectively. PTV max dose (%) in IMRT and 3D-CRT were 104.7±0.96 and 103.9±1.0 respectively. Maximum dose to the tumor can be delivered with IMRT with acceptable toxicity limits. Variables such as expertise, location of tumor, patient condition, and TPS influence the outcome of the treatment.

Keywords: IMRT, 3D CRT, Brain, tumors, OARs, RTOG.

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Authors: Mais Nijim, Rama Devi Chennuboyina, Waseem Al Aqqad

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Advances in spatial and spectral resolution of satellite images have led to tremendous growth in large image databases. The data we acquire through satellites, radars, and sensors consists of important geographical information that can be used for remote sensing applications such as region planning, disaster management. Spatial data classification and object recognition are important tasks for many applications. However, classifying objects and identifying them manually from images is a difficult task. Object recognition is often considered as a classification problem, this task can be performed using machine-learning techniques. Despite of many machine-learning algorithms, the classification is done using supervised classifiers such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) as the area of interest is known. We proposed a classification method, which considers neighboring pixels in a region for feature extraction and it evaluates classifications precisely according to neighboring classes for semantic interpretation of region of interest (ROI). A dataset has been created for training and testing purpose; we generated the attributes by considering pixel intensity values and mean values of reflectance. We demonstrated the benefits of using knowledge discovery and data-mining techniques, which can be on image data for accurate information extraction and classification from high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery.

Keywords: Remote sensing, object recognition, classification, data mining, waterbody identification, feature extraction.

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Authors: Haitao Yang, Jianming Lv, Fei Xu, Xintong Wang, Yilin Huang, Lanting Xia, Xuewu Zhu

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Given a fixed fund, purchasing fewer hosts of higher capability or inversely more of lower capability is a must-be-made trade-off in practices for building a Hadoop big data platform. An exploratory study is presented for a Housing Big Data Platform project (HBDP), where typical big data computing is with SQL queries of aggregate, join, and space-time condition selections executed upon massive data from more than 10 million housing units. In HBDP, an empirical formula was introduced to predict the performance of host clusters potential for the intended typical big data computing, and it was shaped via a regression approach. With this empirical formula, it is easy to suggest an optimal cluster configuration. The investigation was based on a typical Hadoop computing ecosystem HDFS+Hive+Spark. A proper metric was raised to measure the performance of Hadoop clusters in HBDP, which was tested and compared with its predicted counterpart, on executing three kinds of typical SQL query tasks. Tests were conducted with respect to factors of CPU benchmark, memory size, virtual host division, and the number of element physical host in cluster. The research has been applied to practical cluster procurement for housing big data computing.

Keywords: Hadoop platform planning, optimal cluster scheme at fixed-fund, performance empirical formula, typical SQL query tasks.

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: Climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation.

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Authors: M. Izzat Md. Nor, N. Jaffar, N. Zaitulakma Md. Zain, N. Izyanti Mohd Suppian, S. Balakrishnan, G. Kandavello

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During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Malaysia has been focusing on building herd immunity by introducing vaccination programs into the community. Hospital Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) were developed to prevent inpatient transmission. In this study, we focus on the positivity rate of inpatient Person Under Surveillance (PUS) becoming COVID-19 positive and compare this to the national rate in order to see the outcomes of the patient who becomes COVID-19 positive in relation to their vaccination status. This is a retrospective observational study carried out from 1 January until 30 March 2022 in Institut Jantung Negara (IJN). There were 5,255 patients admitted during the time of this study. Pre-admission Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) swab was done for all patients. Patients with positive PCR on pre-admission screening were excluded. The patients who had exposure to COVID-19-positive staff or patients during hospitalization were defined as PUS and were quarantined and monitored for potential COVID-19 infection. Their frequency and risk of exposure (WHO definition) were recorded. On the final day of quarantine, a second PCR swab was performed on PUS patients who exhibit clinical deterioration, whether or not they exhibit COVID-19 symptoms. The severity of COVID-19 infection was defined as category 1-5A. All patients' vaccination status was recorded, and they were divided into three groups: fully immunised, partially immunised, and unvaccinated. We analysed the positivity rate of PUS patients becoming COVID-positive, outcomes, and correlation with the vaccination status. The ratio of positive inpatient PUS to the total inpatient PUS is 492; only 13 became positive, giving a positivity rate of 2.6%. Eight (62%) had multiple exposures. The majority, 8/13(72.7%), had a high-risk exposure, and the remaining 5 had medium-risk exposure. Four (30.8%) were boosted, 7(53.8%) were fully vaccinated, and 2(15.4%) were partial/unvaccinated. Eight patients were in categories 1-2, whilst 38% were in categories 3-5. Vaccination status did not correlate with COVID-19 Category (P = 0.641). One (7.7%) patient died due to COVID-19 complications and sepsis. Within the first quarter of 2022, our institution's positivity rate (2.6%) is significantly lower than the country's (14.4%). High-risk exposure and multiple exposures to positive COVID-19 cases increased the risk of PUS becoming COVID-19 positive despite their underlying vaccination status.

Keywords: COVID-19, boosted, high risk, Malaysia, quarantine, vaccination status.

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Authors: Sotirios N. Raptis

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The paper links social needs to social classes by the creation of cohorts of public services matched as causes to other ones as effects using cause-effect (CE) models. It then compares these associations using CE and typical regression methods (LR, ARMA). The paper discusses such public service groupings offered in Scotland in the long term to estimate the risk of multiple causes or effects that can ultimately reduce the healthcare cost by linking the next services to the likely causes of them. The same generic goal can be achieved using LR or ARMA and differences are discussed. The work uses Health and Social Care (H&Sc) public services data from 11 service packs offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland that boil down to 110 single-attribute year series, called ’factors’. The study took place at Macmillan Cancer Support, UK and Abertay University, Dundee, from 2020 to 2023. The paper discusses CE relationships as a main method and compares sample findings with Linear Regression (LR), ARMA, to see how the services are linked. Relationships found were between smoking-related healthcare provision, mental-health-related services, and epidemiological weight in Primary-1-Education Body-Mass-Index (BMI) in children as CE models. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack CE-linked services in plans such as those for the elderly, low-income people, in the long term. The linkage of services was confirmed allowing more accurate resource planning.

Keywords: Probability, regression, cause-effect cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: S. M. Amin Hosseini, Oriol Pons, Albert de la Fuente

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After natural disasters, displaced people (DP) require important numbers of housing units, which have to be erected quickly due to emergency pressures. These tight timeframes can cause the multiplication of the environmental construction impacts. These negative impacts worsen the already high energy consumption and pollution caused by the building sector. Indeed, post-disaster housing, which is often carried out without pre-planning, usually causes high negative environmental impacts, besides other economic and social impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a suitable strategy to deal with this problem which also takes into account the instability of its causes, like changing ratio between rural and urban population. To this end, this study aims to present a model that assists decision-makers to choose the most suitable building technology for post-disaster housing units. This model focuses on the alternatives sustainability and fulfillment of the stakeholders’ satisfactions. Four building technologies have been analyzed to determine the most sustainability technology and to validate the presented model. In 2003, Bam earthquake DP had their temporary housing units (THUs) built using these four technologies: autoclaved aerated concrete blocks (AAC), concrete masonry unit (CMU), pressed reeds panel (PR), and 3D sandwich panel (3D). The results of this analysis confirm that PR and CMU obtain the highest sustainability indexes. However, the second life scenario of THUs could have considerable impacts on the results.

Keywords: Sustainability, post-disaster temporary housing, integrated value model for sustainability assessment (MIVES), life cycle assessment (LCA).

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Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad

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This study aimed to analyse the application of sufficiency economy in students’ ways of life on campus at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Data was gathered through 394 questionnaires. The study results found that the majority of students were confident that “where there’s a will, there’s a way.” Overall, the students applied the sufficiency economy at a great level, along with being persons who do not exploit others, were satisfied with living their lives moderately, according to the sufficiency economy. Importance was also given to kindness and generosity. Importantly, students were happy with living according to their individual circumstances and status at the present. They saw the importance of joint life planning, self-development, and self-dependence, always learning to be satisfied with “adequate”. As for their practices and ways of life, socially relational activities rated highly, especially initiation activities for underclassmen at the university and the seniority system, which are suitable for activities on campus. Furthermore, the students knew how to build a career and find supplemental income, knew how to earnestly work according to convention to finish work, and preferred to study elective subjects which directly benefit career-wise. The students’ application of sufficiency economy philosophy principles depended on their lives in their hometowns. The students from the provinces regularly applied sufficiency economy philosophy to their lives, for example, by being frugal, steadfast, determined, avoiding negligence, and making economical spending plans; more so than the students from the capital.

Keywords: Application of Sufficiency Economy Philosophy, Way of Living, Undergraduate Students.

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Authors: M. Rossini, A. Portioli Studacher

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The market competition is moving from the single firm to the whole supply chain because of increasing competition and growing need for operational efficiencies and customer orientation. Supply chain management allows companies to look beyond their organizational boundaries to develop and leverage resources and capabilities of their supply chain partners. This creates competitive advantages in the marketplace and because of this SCM has acquired strategic importance. Lean Approach is a management strategy that focuses on reducing every type of waste present in an organization. This approach is becoming more and more popular among supply chain managers. The supply chain application of lean approach is not frequent. In particular, it is not well studied which are the impacts of lean approach principles in a supply chain context. In literature there are only few studies aimed at understanding the qualitative impact of the lean approach in supply chains. Therefore, the goal of this research work is to study the impacts of lean principles implementation along a supply chain. To achieve this, a simulation model of a threeechelon multi-product supply chain has been built. Kanban system (and several priority policies) and setup time reduction degrees are implemented in the lean-configured supply chain to apply pull and lot-sizing decrease principles respectively. To evaluate the benefits of lean approach, lean supply chain is compared with an EOQ-configured supply chain. The simulation results show that Kanban system and setup-time reduction improve inventory stock level. They also show that logistics efforts are affected to lean implementation degree. The paper concludes describing performances of lean supply chain in different contexts.

Keywords: Inventory policy, Kanban, lean supply chain, simulation study, supply chain management, planning.

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Authors: R.M. Kainkwa

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The African Great Lakes Region refers to the zone around lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, Albert, Edward, Kivu, and Malawi. The main source of electricity in this region is hydropower whose systems are generally characterized by relatively weak, isolated power schemes, poor maintenance and technical deficiencies with limited electricity infrastructures. Most of the hydro sources are rain fed, and as such there is normally a deficiency of water during the dry seasons and extended droughts. In such calamities fossil fuels sources, in particular petroleum products and natural gas, are normally used to rescue the situation but apart from them being nonrenewable, they also release huge amount of green house gases to our environment which in turn accelerates the global warming that has at present reached an amazing stage. Wind power is ample, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and free energy source that does not consume or pollute water. Wind generated electricity is one of the most practical and commercially viable option for grid quality and utility scale electricity production. However, the main shortcoming associated with electric wind power generation is fluctuation in its output both in space and time. Before making a decision to establish a wind park at a site, the wind speed features there should therefore be known thoroughly as well as local demand or transmission capacity. The main objective of this paper is to utilise monthly average wind speed data collected from one prospective site within the African Great Lakes Region to demonstrate that the available wind power there is high enough to generate electricity. The mean monthly values were calculated from records gathered on hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2001 to 2005) from a site in Tanzania. The documentations that were collected at a height of 2 m were projected to a height of 50 m which is the standard hub height of wind turbines. The overall monthly average wind speed was found to be 12.11 m/s whereas June to November was established to be the windy season as the wind speed during the session is above the overall monthly wind speed. The available wind power density corresponding to the overall mean monthly wind speed was evaluated to be 1072 W/m2, a potential that is worthwhile harvesting for the purpose of electric generation.

Keywords: Hydro power, windy season, available wind powerdensity.

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Authors: N. Chegeni, M. J. Tahmasebi Birgani

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Nowadays, in most radiotherapy departments, the commercial treatment planning systems (TPS) used to calculate dose distributions needs to be verified; therefore, quick, easy-to-use and low cost dose distribution algorithms are desirable to test and verify the performance of the TPS. In this paper, we put forth an analytical method to calculate the phantom scatter contribution and depth dose on the central axis based on the equivalent square concept. Then, this method was generalized to calculate the profiles at any depth and for several field shapes regular or irregular fields under symmetry and asymmetry photon beam conditions. Varian 2100 C/D and Siemens Primus Plus Linacs with 6 and 18 MV photon beam were used for irradiations. Percentage depth doses (PDDs) were measured for a large number of square fields for both energies, and for 45^º wedges which were employed to obtain the profiles in any depth. To assess the accuracy of the calculated profiles, several profile measurements were carried out for some treatment fields. The calculated and measured profiles were compared by gamma-index calculation. All γ–index calculations were based on a 3% dose criterion and a 3 mm dose-to-agreement (DTA) acceptance criterion. The γ values were less than 1 at most points. However, the maximum γ observed was about 1.10 in the penumbra region in most fields and in the central area for the asymmetric fields. This analytical approach provides a generally quick and fairly accurate algorithm to calculate dose distribution for some treatment fields in conventional radiotherapy.

Keywords: Dose distribution, equivalent field, asymmetric field, irregular field.

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Authors: E. Cintura, M. I. Gomes

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Nowadays, sustainable development issues have a key role in the planning of the man-made environment. Ensuring this development means limiting the impact of human activity on nature. It is essential to secure healthy places and good living conditions. For these reasons, indoor air quality and building materials play a fundamental role in sustainable architectural projects. These factors significantly affect human health: they can radically change the quality of the internal environment and energy consumption. The use of natural materials such as earth has many beneficial aspects in comfort and indoor air quality. As well as advantages in the environmental impact of the construction, they ensure a low energy consumption. Since they are already present in nature, their production and use do not require a high-energy consumption. Furthermore, they have a high thermo-hygrometric capacity, being able to absorb moisture, contributing positively to indoor conditions. Indoor air quality is closely related to relative humidity. For these reasons, it can be affirmed that the use of earth materials guarantees a sustainable development and at the same time improves the health of the building users. This paper summarizes several researches that demonstrate the importance of indoor air quality for human health and how it strictly depends on the building materials used. Eco-efficient plasters are also considered: earth and ash mortar. The bibliography consulted has the objective of supporting future experimental and laboratory analyzes. It is necessary to carry on with research by the use of simulations and testing to confirm the hygrothermal properties of eco-efficient plasters and therefore their ability to improve indoor air quality.

Keywords: Hygroscopicity, hygrothermal comfort, mortar, plaster.

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Authors: Guanglin Song

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Situated within the context of China's tiered medical treatment system, this study aims to analyze spatial causes of urban healthcare access difficulties from the perspective of the configuration of healthcare facilities. A social network analysis approach is employed to construct a healthcare demand and supply flow network between major residential clusters and various tiers of hospitals in the city. The findings reveal that: 1) There exists overall maldistribution and over-concentration of healthcare resources in the study area, characterized by structural imbalance. 2) The low rate of primary care utilization in the study area is a key factor contributing to congestion at higher-tier hospitals, as excessive reliance on these institutions by neighboring communities exacerbates the problem. 3) Gradual optimization of the healthcare facility layout in the study area, encompassing holistic, local, and individual institutional levels, can enhance systemic efficiency and resource balance. This research proposes a method for evaluating urban healthcare resource distribution structures based on service flows within hierarchical networks. It offers spatially targeted optimization suggestions for promoting the implementation of the tiered healthcare system and alleviating challenges related to accessibility and congestion in seeking medical care. In addition, the study provides some new ideas for researchers and healthcare managers in countries, cities, and healthcare management around the world with similar challenges.

Keywords: Flow of public services, healthcare facilities, spatial planning, urban networks.

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