Search results for: economic planning depth
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3130

Search results for: economic planning depth

1210 Dynamic Clustering Estimation of Tool Flank Wear in Turning Process using SVD Models of the Emitted Sound Signals

Authors: A. Samraj, S. Sayeed, J. E. Raja., J. Hossen, A. Rahman

Abstract:

Monitoring the tool flank wear without affecting the throughput is considered as the prudent method in production technology. The examination has to be done without affecting the machining process. In this paper we proposed a novel work that is used to determine tool flank wear by observing the sound signals emitted during the turning process. The work-piece material we used here is steel and aluminum and the cutting insert was carbide material. Two different cutting speeds were used in this work. The feed rate and the cutting depth were constant whereas the flank wear was a variable. The emitted sound signal of a fresh tool (0 mm flank wear) a slightly worn tool (0.2 -0.25 mm flank wear) and a severely worn tool (0.4mm and above flank wear) during turning process were recorded separately using a high sensitive microphone. Analysis using Singular Value Decomposition was done on these sound signals to extract the feature sound components. Observation of the results showed that an increase in tool flank wear correlates with an increase in the values of SVD features produced out of the sound signals for both the materials. Hence it can be concluded that wear monitoring of tool flank during turning process using SVD features with the Fuzzy C means classification on the emitted sound signal is a potential and relatively simple method.

Keywords: Fuzzy c means, Microphone, Singular ValueDecomposition, Tool Flank Wear.

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1209 Architectural Building Safety and Health Performance Model for Stratified Low-Cost Housing: Education and Management Tool for Building Managers

Authors: Zainal Abidin Akasah, Maizam Alias, Azuin Ramli

Abstract:

The safety and health performances aspects of a building are the most challenging aspect of facility management. It requires a deep understanding by the building managers on the factors that contribute to health and safety performances. This study attempted to develop an explanatory architectural safety performance model for stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The proposed Building Safety and Health Performance (BSHP) model was tested empirically through a survey on 308 construction practitioners using partial least squares (PLS) and structural equation modelling (SEM) tool. Statistical analysis results supports the conclusion that architecture, building services, external environment, management approaches and maintenance management have positive influence on safety and health performance of stratified low-cost housing in Malaysia. The findings provide valuable insights for construction industry to introduce BSHP model in the future where the model could be used as a guideline for training purposes of managers and better planning and implementation of building management.

Keywords: Building management, stratified low-cost housing, Safety and health model

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1208 Estimation of Human Absorbed Dose Using Compartmental Model

Authors: M. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, F. Abbasi-Davani, S. Zolghadri

Abstract:

Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, compartmental model was used in order to estimate the human absorbed dose of 177Lu-DOTATOC from the biodistribution data in wild type rats. For this purpose, 177Lu-DOTATOC was prepared under optimized conditions and its biodistribution was studied in male Syrian rats up to 168 h. Compartmental model was applied to mathematical description of the drug behaviour in tissue at different times. Dosimetric estimation of the complex was performed using radiation absorbed dose assessment resource (RADAR). The biodistribution data showed high accumulation in the adrenal and pancreas as the major expression sites for somatostatin receptor (SSTR). While kidneys as the major route of excretion receive 0.037 mSv/MBq, pancreas and adrenal also obtain 0.039 and 0.028 mSv/MBq. Due to the usage of this method, the points of accumulated activity data were enhanced, and further information of tissues uptake was collected that it will be followed by high (or improved) precision in dosimetric calculations.

Keywords: Compartmental modeling, human absorbed dose, 177Lu-DOTATOC, Syrian rats.

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1207 Analysis of Impact Load Induced by Ultrasonic Cavitation Bubble Collapse Using Thin Film Pressure Sensors

Authors: Moiz S. Vohra, Nagalingam Arun Prasanth, Wei L. Tan, S. H. Yeo

Abstract:

The understanding of generation and collapse of acoustic cavitation bubbles are prerequisites for application of cavitation erosion. Microbubbles generated due to rapid fluctuation of pressure induced by propagation of ultrasonic wave lead to formation of high velocity microjets and or shock waves upon collapse. Due to vast application of ultrasonic, it is important to characterize and understand cavitation collapse pressure under the radiating surface at different conditions. A comparative investigation is carried out to determine impact load and dynamic pressure distribution exerted upon bubble collapse using thin film pressure sensors. Measurements were recorded at different input conditions such as amplitude, stand-off distance, insertion depth of the horn inside the liquid and pulse on-off time of acoustic vibrations. Impact force of 2.97 N is recorded at amplitude of 108 μm and stand-off distance of 1 mm from the sensor film, whereas impulsive force as low as 0.4 N is recorded at amplitude of 12 μm and stand-off distance of 5 mm from the sensor film. The results drawn from the investigation indicated that variety of impact loads can be achieved by controlling generation and collapse of bubbles, making it suitable to use for numerous application.

Keywords: Ultrasonic cavitation, bubble collapse, pressure mapping sensor, impact load.

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1206 Linear Programming Application in Unit Commitment of Wind Farms with Considering Uncertainties

Authors: M. Esmaeeli Shahrakht, A. Kazemi

Abstract:

Due to uncertainty of wind velocity, wind power generators don’t have deterministic output power. Utilizing wind power generation and thermal power plants together create new concerns for operation engineers of power systems. In this paper, a model is presented to implement the uncertainty of load and generated wind power which can be utilized in power system operation planning. Stochastic behavior of parameters is simulated by generating scenarios that can be solved by deterministic method. A mixed-integer linear programming method is used for solving deterministic generation scheduling problem. The proposed approach is applied to a 12-unit test system including 10 thermal units and 2 wind farms. The results show affectivity of piecewise linear model in unit commitment problems. Also using linear programming causes a considerable reduction in calculation times and guarantees convergence to the global optimum. Neglecting the uncertainty of wind velocity causes higher cost assessment of generation scheduling.

Keywords: Load uncertainty, linear programming, scenario generation, unit commitment, wind farm.

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1205 Hand Gesture Recognition Based on Combined Features Extraction

Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

Hand gesture is an active area of research in the vision community, mainly for the purpose of sign language recognition and Human Computer Interaction. In this paper, we propose a system to recognize alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9) in real-time from stereo color image sequences using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Our system is based on three main stages; automatic segmentation and preprocessing of the hand regions, feature extraction and classification. In automatic segmentation and preprocessing stage, color and 3D depth map are used to detect hands where the hand trajectory will take place in further step using Mean-shift algorithm and Kalman filter. In the feature extraction stage, 3D combined features of location, orientation and velocity with respected to Cartesian systems are used. And then, k-means clustering is employed for HMMs codeword. The final stage so-called classification, Baum- Welch algorithm is used to do a full train for HMMs parameters. The gesture of alphabets and numbers is recognized using Left-Right Banded model in conjunction with Viterbi algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that, our system can successfully recognize hand gestures with 98.33% recognition rate.

Keywords: Gesture Recognition, Computer Vision & Image Processing, Pattern Recognition.

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1204 Optimal Synthesis of Multipass Heat Exchanger without Resorting to Correction Factor

Authors: Bharat B. Gulyani, Anuj Jain, Shalendra Kumar

Abstract:

Customarily, the LMTD correction factor, FT, is used to screen alternative designs for a heat exchanger. Designs with unacceptably low FT values are discarded. In this paper, authors have proposed a more fundamental criterion, based on feasibility of a multipass exchanger as the only criteria, followed by economic optimization. This criterion, coupled with asymptotic energy targets, provide the complete optimization space in a heat exchanger network (HEN), where cost-optimization of HEN can be performed with only Heat Recovery Approach temperature (HRAT) and number-of-shells as variables.

Keywords: heat exchanger, heat exchanger networks, LMTD correction factor, shell targeting.

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1203 Forecasting the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index Using an Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Birol Yildiz, Abdullah Yalama, Metin Coskun

Abstract:

Many studies have shown that Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been widely used for forecasting financial markets, because of many financial and economic variables are nonlinear, and an ANN can model flexible linear or non-linear relationship among variables. The purpose of the study was to employ an ANN models to predict the direction of the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Indices (ISE National-100). As a result of this study, the model forecast the direction of the ISE National-100 to an accuracy of 74, 51%.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Istanbul StockExchange, Non-linear Modeling.

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1202 Hydrogeological Risk and Mining Tunnels: the Fontane-Rodoretto Mine Turin (Italy)

Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Laura Scesi, Elena Cerino Adbin, Daniele Cremonesi

Abstract:

The interaction of tunneling or mining with groundwater has become a very relevant problem not only due to the need to guarantee the safety of workers and to assure the efficiency of the tunnel drainage systems, but also to safeguard water resources from impoverishment and pollution risk. Therefore it is very important to forecast the drainage processes (i.e., the evaluation of drained discharge and drawdown caused by the excavation). The aim of this study was to know better the system and to quantify the flow drained from the Fontane mines, located in Val Germanasca (Turin, Italy). This allowed to understand the hydrogeological local changes in time. The work has therefore been structured as follows: the reconstruction of the conceptual model with the geological, hydrogeological and geological-structural study; the calculation of the tunnel inflows (through the use of structural methods) and the comparison with the measured flow rates; the water balance at the basin scale. In this way it was possible to understand what are the relationships between rainfall, groundwater level variations and the effect of the presence of tunnels as a means of draining water. Subsequently, it the effects produced by the excavation of the mining tunnels was quantified, through numerical modeling. In particular, the modeling made it possible to observe the drawdown variation as a function of number, excavation depth and different mines linings.

Keywords: Groundwater, Italy, numerical model, tunneling.

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1201 Application of Neural Networks for 24-Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting

Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

Abstract:

One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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1200 Analysis on the Game-Playing Tendency of SNGs (Social Network Games) users by Gender

Authors: Jooyeon Yook, Wonjun Ko

Abstract:

As the Social network game(SNG) is rising dramatically worldwide, an interesting aspect has appeared in the demographic analysis. That is the ratio of the game users by gender. Although the ratio of male and female users in online game was 60:40% previously, the ratio of male and female users in SNG stood at 47:53% which shows that the ratio of female users is higher than that of male users. Here, it should be noted that 35% in those 53% female users are the first-time users of game. This fact suggests that women who were not interested in game previously has taken an interest in SNG. Notwithstanding this issue, there have been little studies on the female users of SNG although there are many studies that analyzed the tendency of female users- online game play. This study conducted the analyzed how the game-playing tendency of SNG gamers was manifested in the game by gender. For that, this study will identify the tendency of SNG users by gender based on the preceding studies that analyzed the online game users by gender. The subject of this study was confined to the farm and urban construction simulation games which were offered based on the mobile application platform. Regarding the methodology of study, the first focus group interview(FGI) was conducted with the male and female users who had played games on Social network service(SNS) until recently. Later, the second one-on-one in-depth interview was conducted to gain an insight into the psychological state of the subjects.

Keywords: Social network Game, Gender, Play inclination, Game psychology

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1199 Identifying the Strength of Cyclones and Earthquakes Requiring Military Disaster Response

Authors: Chad A. Long

Abstract:

The United States military is now commonly responding to complex humanitarian emergencies and natural disasters around the world. From catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti to typhoons devastating the Philippines, U.S. military assistance is requested when the event exceeds the local government's ability to assist the population. This study assesses the characteristics of catastrophes that surpass a nation’s individual ability to respond and recover from the event. The paper begins with a historical summary of military aid and then analyzes over 40 years of the United States military humanitarian response. Over 300 military operations were reviewed and coded based on the nature of the disaster. This in-depth study reviewed the U.S. military’s deployment events for cyclones and earthquakes to determine the strength of the natural disaster requiring external assistance. The climatological data for cyclone landfall and magnitude data for earthquake epicenters were identified, grouped into regions and analyzed for time-based trends. The results showed that foreign countries will likely request the U.S. military for cyclones with speeds greater or equal to 125 miles an hour and earthquakes at the magnitude of 7.4 or higher. These results of this study will assist the geographic combatant commands in determining future military response requirements.

Keywords: Cyclones, earthquakes, natural disasters, military.

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1198 Visual Inspection of Work Piece with a Complex Shape by Means of Robot Manipulator

Authors: A. Y. Bani Hashim, N. S. A. Ramdan

Abstract:

Inconsistency in manual inspection is real because humans get tired after some time. Recent trends show that automatic inspection is more appealing for mass production inspections. In such as a case, a robot manipulator seems the best candidate to run a dynamic visual inspection. The purpose of this work is to estimate the optimum workspace where a robot manipulator would perform a visual inspection process onto a work piece where a camera is attached to the end effector. The pseudo codes for the planned path are derived from the number of tool transit points, the delay time at the transit points, the process cycle time, and the configuration space that the distance between the tool and the work piece. It is observed that express start and swift end are acceptable in a robot program because applicable works usually in existence during these moments. However, during the mid-range cycle, there are always practical tasks programmed to be executed. For that reason, it is acceptable to program the robot such as that speedy alteration of actuator displacement is avoided. A dynamic visual inspection system using a robot manipulator seems practical for a work piece with a complex shape.

Keywords: Robot manipulator, Visual inspection, Work piece, Trajectory planning.

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1197 Internet Bandwidth Network Quality Management: The Case Study of Telecom Organization of Thailand

Authors: Sriaroonnirun Sittha, Rotchanakitumnuai Siriluck

Abstract:

This paper addresses a current problem that occurs among Thai internet service providers with regard to bandwidth network quality management. The IPSTAR department of Telecom Organization of Thailand public company (TOT); the largest internet service provider in Thailand, is the case study to analyze the problem that exists. The Internet bandwidth network quality management (iBWQM) framework is mainly applied to the problem that has been found. Bandwidth management policy (BMP) and quality of service (QoS) are two antecedents of iBWQM. This paper investigates internet user behavior, marketing demand and network operation views in order to determine bandwidth management policy (e.g. quota management, scheduling and malicious management). The congestion of bandwidth is also analyzed to enhance quality of service (QoS). Moreover, the iBWQM framework is able to improve the quality of service and increase bandwidth utilization, minimize complaint rate concerns to slow speed, and provide network planning guidelines through Thai Internet services providers.

Keywords: Internet bandwidth management, Internet serviceprovider, Internet usage behavior, Quality of Service.

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1196 On the Development of a Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue for Northern Algeria

Authors: I. Grigoratos, R. Monteiro

Abstract:

Regions with a significant percentage of non-seismically designed buildings and reduced urban planning are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In this context, the project ‘Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria’ (ITERATE) aims at seismic risk mitigation in Algeria. Past earthquakes in North Algeria caused extensive damages, e.g. the El Asnam 1980 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 and Boumerdes 2003 Mw 6.8 earthquakes. This paper will address a number of proposed developments and considerations made towards a further improvement of the component of seismic hazard. In specific, an updated earthquake catalog (until year 2018) is compiled, and new conversion equations to moment magnitude are introduced. Furthermore, a network-based method for the estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of the minimum magnitude of completeness is applied. We found relatively large values for Mc, due to the sparse network, and a nonlinear trend between Mw and body wave (mb) or local magnitude (ML), which are the most common scales reported in the region. Lastly, the resulting b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution is sensitive to the declustering method.

Keywords: Conversion equation, magnitude of completeness, seismic events, seismic hazard.

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1195 Heavy Metals Transport in the Soil Profiles under the Application of Sludge and Wastewater

Authors: A. Behbahaninia, S. A. Mirbagheri, A. H. Javid

Abstract:

Heavy metal transfer in soil profiles is a major environmental concern because even slow transport through the soil may eventually lead to deterioration of groundwater quality. The use of sewage sludge and effluents from wastewater treatment plants for irrigation of agricultural lands is on the rise particularly in peri-urban area of developing countries. In this study soil samples under sludge application and wastewater irrigation were studied and soil samples were collected in the soil profiles from the surface to 100 cm in depth. For this purpose, three plots were made in a treatment plant in south of Tehran-Iran. First plot was irrigated just with effluent from wastewater treatment plant, second plot with simulated heavy metals concentration equal 50 years irrigation and in third plot sewage sludge and effluent was used. Trace metals concentration (Cd, Cu) were determined for soil samples. The results indicate movement of metals was observed, but the most concentration of metals was found in topsoil samples. The most of Cadmium concentration was measured in the topsoil of plot 3, 4.5mg/kg and Maximum cadmium movement was observed in 0-20 cm. The most concentration of copper was 27.76mg/kg, and maximum percolation in 0-20 cm. Metals (Cd, Cu) were measured in leached water. Preferential flow and metal complexation with soluble organic apparently allow leaching of heavy metals.

Keywords: Heavy metal, sludge, soil, transport.

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1194 Parametric Design as an Approach to Respond to Complexity

Authors: Sepideh Jabbari Behnam, Zahrasadat Saide Zarabadi

Abstract:

A city is an intertwined texture from the relationship of different components in a whole which is united in a one, so designing the whole complex and its planning is not an easy matter. By considering that a city is a complex system with infinite components and communications, providing flexible layouts that can respond to the unpredictable character of the city, which is a result of its complexity, is inevitable. Parametric design approach as a new approach can produce flexible and transformative layouts in any stage of design. This study aimed to introduce parametric design as a modern approach to respond to complex urban issues by using descriptive and analytical methods. This paper firstly introduces complex systems and then giving a brief characteristic of complex systems. The flexible design and layout flexibility is another matter in response and simulation of complex urban systems that should be considered in design, which is discussed in this study. In this regard, after describing the nature of the parametric approach as a flexible approach, as well as a tool and appropriate way to respond to features such as limited predictability, reciprocating nature, complex communications, and being sensitive to initial conditions and hierarchy, this paper introduces parametric design.

Keywords: Complexity theory, complex system, flexibility, parametric design.

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1193 Spatial Pattern and GIS-Based Model for Risk Assessment – A Case Study of Dusit District, Bangkok

Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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1192 Experimental Study of Geotextile Effect on Improving Soil Bearing Capacity in Aggregate Surfaced Roads

Authors: Mahdi Taghipour Masoumi, Ali Abdi Kordani, Mahmoud Nazirizad

Abstract:

Geosynthetics utilization plays an important role in the construction of highways with no additive layers, such as asphalt concrete or cement concrete, or in a subgrade layer which affects the bearing capacity of unbounded layers. This laboratory experimental study was carried out to evaluate changes in the load bearing capacity of reinforced soil with these materials in highway roadbed with regard to geotextile properties. California Bearing Ratio (CBR) test samples were prepared with two types of soil: Clayey and sandy containing non-reinforced and reinforced soil. The samples comprised three types of geotextiles with different characteristics (150, 200, 300 g/m2) and depths (H= 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 mm), and were grouped into two forms, one-layered and two-layered, based on the sample materials in order to perform defined tests. The results showed that the soil bearing characteristics increased when one layer of geotextile was used in clayey and sandy samples reinforced by geotextile. However, the bearing capacity of the soil, in the presence of a geotextile layer material with depth of more than 30 mm, had no remarkable effect. Furthermore, when the two-layered geotextile was applied in material samples, although it increased the soil resistance, it also showed that through the addition of a number or weights of geotextile into samples, the natural composition of the soil changed and the results are unreliable.

Keywords: Reinforced soil, geosynthetics, geotextile, transportation capacity, CBR experiments.

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1191 Enhancing Security in Resource Sharing Using Key Holding Mechanism

Authors: M. Victor Jose, V. Seenivasagam

Abstract:

This paper describes a logical method to enhance security on the grid computing to restrict the misuse of the grid resources. This method is an economic and efficient one to avoid the usage of the special devices. The security issues, techniques and solutions needed to provide a secure grid computing environment are described. A well defined process for security management among the resource accesses and key holding algorithm is also proposed. In this method, the identity management, access control and authorization and authentication are effectively handled.

Keywords: Grid security, Irregular binary series, Key holding mechanism, Resource identity, Secure resource access.

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1190 3D Star Skeleton for Fast Human Posture Representation

Authors: Sungkuk Chun, Kwangjin Hong, Keechul Jung

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an improved 3D star skeleton technique, which is a suitable skeletonization for human posture representation and reflects the 3D information of human posture. Moreover, the proposed technique is simple and then can be performed in real-time. The existing skeleton construction techniques, such as distance transformation, Voronoi diagram, and thinning, focus on the precision of skeleton information. Therefore, those techniques are not applicable to real-time posture recognition since they are computationally expensive and highly susceptible to noise of boundary. Although a 2D star skeleton was proposed to complement these problems, it also has some limitations to describe the 3D information of the posture. To represent human posture effectively, the constructed skeleton should consider the 3D information of posture. The proposed 3D star skeleton contains 3D data of human, and focuses on human action and posture recognition. Our 3D star skeleton uses the 8 projection maps which have 2D silhouette information and depth data of human surface. And the extremal points can be extracted as the features of 3D star skeleton, without searching whole boundary of object. Therefore, on execution time, our 3D star skeleton is faster than the “greedy" 3D star skeleton using the whole boundary points on the surface. Moreover, our method can offer more accurate skeleton of posture than the existing star skeleton since the 3D data for the object is concerned. Additionally, we make a codebook, a collection of representative 3D star skeletons about 7 postures, to recognize what posture of constructed skeleton is.

Keywords: computer vision, gesture recognition, skeletonization, human posture representation.

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1189 Investigating the Dynamic Response of the Ballast

Authors: Osama Brinji, Wing Kong Chiu, Graham Tew

Abstract:

Understanding the stability of rail ballast is one of the most important aspects in the railways. An unstable track may cause some issues such as unnecessary vibration and ultimately loss of track quality. The track foundation plays an important role in the stabilization of the railway. The dynamic response of rail ballast in the vicinity of the rail sleeper can affect the stability of the rail track and this has not been studied in detail. A review of literature showed that most of the works focused on the area under the concrete sleeper. Although there are some theories about the shear (longitudinal) effect of the rail ballast, these have not properly been studied and hence are not well understood. The stability of a rail track will depend on the compactness of the ballast in its vicinity. This paper will try to determine the dynamic response of the ballast to identify its resonant behaviour. This preliminary research is one of several studies that examine the vibration response of the granular materials. The main aim is to use this information for future design of sleepers to ensure that any dynamic response of the sleeper will not compromise the state of compactness of the ballast. This paper will report on the dependence of damping and the natural frequency of the ballast as a function of depth and distance from the point of excitation introduced through a concrete block. The concrete block is used to simulate a sleeper and the ballast is simulated with gravel. In spite of these approximations, the results presented in the paper will show an agreement with theories and the assumptions that are used in study the mechanical behaviour of the rail ballast.

Keywords: Ballast, dynamic response, sleeper, stability.

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1188 Forecast Based on an Empirical Probability Function with an Adjusted Error Using Propagation of Error

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

Abstract:

This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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1187 Research of Concentratibility of Low Quality Bauxite Raw Materials

Authors: Nadezhda Nikolaeva, Tatyana Alexandrova, Alexandr Alexandrov

Abstract:

Processing of high-silicon bauxite on the base of the traditional clinkering method is related to high power consumption and capital investments, which makes production of alumina from those ores non-competitive in terms of basic economic showings. For these reasons, development of technological solutions enabling to process bauxites with various chemical and mineralogical structures efficiently with low level of thermal power consumption is important. Flow sheet of the studies on washability of ores from the Timanskoe and the Severo-Onezhskoe deposits is on the base of the flotation method.

Keywords: Low-quality bauxite, resource-saving technology, optimization, aluminum, conditioning of composition, separation characteristics.

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1186 Forecasting of Grape Juice Flavor by Using Support Vector Regression

Authors: Ren-Jieh Kuo, Chun-Shou Huang

Abstract:

The research of juice flavor forecasting has become more important in China. Due to the fast economic growth in China, many different kinds of juices have been introduced to the market. If a beverage company can understand their customers’ preference well, the juice can be served more attractive. Thus, this study intends to introducing the basic theory and computing process of grapes juice flavor forecasting based on support vector regression (SVR). Applying SVR, BPN, and LR to forecast the flavor of grapes juice in real data shows that SVR is more suitable and effective at predicting performance.

Keywords: Flavor forecasting, artificial neural networks, support vector regression, grape juice flavor.

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1185 Development of Fuzzy Logic and Neuro-Fuzzy Surface Roughness Prediction Systems Coupled with Cutting Current in Milling Operation

Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

Abstract:

Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: Surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations.

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1184 Challenges of Implementing Urban Master Plans: The Lahore Experience

Authors: Rizwan Hameed, Obaidullah Nadeem

Abstract:

Master plan is a tool to guide and manage the growth of cities in a planned manner. The soul of a master plan lies in its implementation framework. If not implemented, people are trapped in a mess of urban problems and laissez-faire development having serious long term repercussions. Unfortunately, Master Plans prepared for several major cities of Pakistan could not be fully implemented due to host of reasons and Lahore is no exception. Being the second largest city of Pakistan with a population of over 7 million people, Lahore holds the distinction that the first ever Master Plan in the country was prepared for this city in 1966. Recently in 2004, a new plan titled `Integrated Master Plan for Lahore-2021- has been approved for implementation. This paper provides a comprehensive account of the weaknesses and constraints in the plan preparation process and implementation strategies of Master Plans prepared for Lahore. It also critically reviews the new Master Plan particularly with respect to the proposed implementation framework. The paper discusses the prospects and pre-conditions for successful implementation of the new Plan in the light of historic analysis, interviews with stakeholders and the new institutional context under the devolution plan.

Keywords: City District Government, Implementation of plan, Lahore Development Authority, Master Planning.

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1183 Identification of Industrial Health Using ANN

Authors: Deepak Goswami, Padma Lochan Hazarika, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma

Abstract:

The customary practice of identifying industrial sickness is a set traditional techniques which rely upon a range of manual monitoring and compilation of financial records. It makes the process tedious, time consuming and often are susceptible to manipulation. Therefore, certain readily available tools are required which can deal with such uncertain situations arising out of industrial sickness. It is more significant for a country like India where the fruits of development are rarely equally distributed. In this paper, we propose an approach based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to deal with industrial sickness with specific focus on a few such units taken from a less developed north-east (NE) Indian state like Assam. The proposed system provides decision regarding industrial sickness using eight different parameters which are directly related to the stages of sickness of such units. The mechanism primarily uses certain signals and symptoms of industrial health to decide upon the state of a unit. Specifically, we formulate an ANN based block with data obtained from a few selected units of Assam so that required decisions related to industrial health could be taken. The system thus formulated could become an important part of planning and development. It can also contribute towards computerization of decision support systems related to industrial health and help in better management.

Keywords: Industrial, Health, Classification, ANN, MLP, MSE.

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1182 Study of Pre-Handwriting Factors Necessary for Successful Handwriting in Children

Authors: Lalitchandra J. Shah, Katarzyna Bialek, Melinda L. Clarke, Jessica L. Jansson

Abstract:

Handwriting is essential to academic success; however, the current literature is limited in the identification of pre-handwriting skills. The purpose of this study was to identify the pre-handwriting skills, which occupational therapy practitioners deem important to handwriting success, as well as those which aid in intervention planning. The online survey instrument consisted of 33 questions that assessed various skills related to the development of handwriting, as well as captured demographic information. Both occupational therapists and occupational therapy assistants were included in the survey study. The survey found that the respondents were in agreement that purposeful scribbling, the ability of a child to copy (vertical/horizontal lines, circle, squares, and triangles), imitating an oblique cross, cognitive skills (attention, praxis, self-regulation, sequencing), grasp patterns, hand dominance, in hand manipulation skills (shift, translation, rotation), bilateral integration, stabilization of paper, crossing midline, and visual perception were important indicators of handwriting readiness. The results of the survey support existing research regarding the skills necessary for the successful development of handwriting in children.

Keywords: Development, handwriting, occupational therapy, visual perceptual skills.

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1181 Measuring the Amount of Eroded Soil and Surface Runoff Water in the Field

Authors: Abdulfatah Faraj Aboufayed

Abstract:

Water erosion is the most important problems of the soil in the Jabel Nefusa area located in northwest of Libya; therefore, erosion station had been established in the Faculty of Veterinary and dryfarming research Station, University of the Al-japel Al-gharbi in Zentan. The length of the station is 72.6 feet, 6 feet width and the percentage of its slope is 3%. The station were established to measure the amount of soil eroded and amount of surface water produced during the seasons 95/96 and 96/97 from each rain storms. The monitoring shows that there was a difference between the two seasons in the number of rainstorms which made differences in the amount of surface runoff water and the amount of soil eroded between the two seasons. Although the slope is low (3%), the soil texture is sandy and the land ploughed twice during each season surface runoff and soil eroded were occurred. The average amount of eroded soil was 3792 grams (gr) per season and the average amount of surface runoff water was 410 liter (L) per season. The amount of surface runoff water would be much greater from Jebel Nefusa upland with steep slopes and collecting of them will save a valuable amount of water which lost as a runoff while this area is in desperate of this water. The regression analysis of variance show strong correlation between rainfall depth and the other two depended variable (the amount of surface runoff water and the amount of eroded soil. It shows also strong correlation between amount of surface runoff water and amount of eroded soil.

Keywords: Rain, Surface runoff water, Soil, Water erosion, Soil erosion.

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