Search results for: generalized ridge estimate

Authors: Mei-Hsiu Chi, Jyh-Yang Wu, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

The diffusion-reaction equations are important Partial Differential Equations in mathematical biology, material science, physics, and so on. However, finding efficient numerical methods for diffusion-reaction systems on curved surfaces is still an important and difficult problem. The purpose of this paper is to present a convergent geometric method for solving the reaction-diffusion equations on closed surfaces by an O(r)-LTL configuration method. The O(r)-LTL configuration method combining the local tangential lifting technique and configuration equations is an effective method to estimate differential quantities on curved surfaces. Since estimating the Laplace-Beltrami operator is an important task for solving the reaction-diffusion equations on surfaces, we use the local tangential lifting method and a generalized finite difference method to approximate the Laplace-Beltrami operators and we solve this reaction-diffusion system on closed surfaces. Our method is not only conceptually simple, but also easy to implement.

Keywords: Close surfaces, high-order approach, numerical solutions, reaction-diffusion systems.

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Authors: Chen-Yu Wang, Tsung-Chien Chen, Ming-Hui Lee, Jen-Feng Huang

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In this paper, the innovative intelligent fuzzy weighted input estimation method (FWIEM) can be applied to the inverse heat transfer conduction problem (IHCP) to estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux efficiently as presented. The feasibility of this method can be verified by adopting the temperature measurement experiment. We would like to focus attention on the heat flux estimation to three kinds of samples (Copper, Iron and Steel/AISI 304) with the same 3mm thickness. The temperature measurements are then regarded as the inputs into the FWIEM to estimate the heat flux. The experiment results show that the proposed algorithm can estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux on-line.

Keywords: Fuzzy Weighted Input Estimation Method, IHCP andHeat Flux.

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Authors: Y. Chaiko

Abstract:

It is important to provide possibility of so called “handover" for the mobile subscriber from GSM network to Wi-Fi network and back. To solve specified problem it is necessary to estimate connection time between base station and wireless access point. Difficulty to estimate this parameter is that it doesn-t described in specifications of the standard and, hence, no recommended value is given. In this paper, the analytical model is presented that allows the estimating connection time between base station and IEEE 802.11 access point.

Keywords: Access point, connection procedure, Wi-Fi network.

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Authors: Rado Flajs, Miran Saje

Abstract:

In the present paper the displacement-based nonconforming quadrilateral affine thin plate bending finite element ARPQ4 is presented, derived directly from non-conforming quadrilateral thin plate bending finite element RPQ4 proposed by Wanji and Cheung [19]. It is found, however, that element RPQ4 is only conditionally unisolvent. The new element is shown to be inherently unisolvent. This convenient property results in the element ARPQ4 being more robust and thus better suited for computations than its predecessor. The convergence is proved and the rate of convergence estimated. The mathematically rigorous proof of convergence presented in the paper is based on Stummel-s generalized patch test and the consideration of the element approximability condition, which are both necessary and sufficient for convergence.

Keywords: Quadrilateral thin plate bending element, convergence, generalized patch test.

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Authors: C.Ramesh, V.Vaidehi

Abstract:

Ultra-wide band (UWB) communication is one of the most promising technologies for high data rate wireless networks for short range applications. This paper proposes a blind channel estimation method namely IMM (Interactive Multiple Model) Based Kalman algorithm for UWB OFDM systems. IMM based Kalman filter is proposed to estimate frequency selective time varying channel. In the proposed method, two Kalman filters are concurrently estimate the channel parameters. The first Kalman filter namely Static Model Filter (SMF) gives accurate result when the user is static while the second Kalman filter namely the Dynamic Model Filter (DMF) gives accurate result when the receiver is in moving state. The static transition matrix in SMF is assumed as an Identity matrix where as in DMF, it is computed using Yule-Walker equations. The resultant filter estimate is computed as a weighted sum of individual filter estimates. The proposed method is compared with other existing channel estimation methods.

Keywords: Channel estimation, Kalman filter, UWB, Channel model, AR model

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan

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Breastfeeding is an important concept in the maternal life of a woman. In this paper, we focus on exclusive breastfeeding. Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. This type of breastfeeding is very important during the first six months because it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, in Mauritius, exclusive breastfeeding has decreased the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we give an overview of exclusive breastfeeding in Mauritius and the factors influencing it. We further analyze the local practices of exclusive breastfeeding using the Generalized Poisson regression model and the negative-binomial model since the data are over-dispersed.

Keywords: Exclusive breast feeding, regression model, generalized poisson, negative binomial.

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Authors: Hamdy M. Youssef, Eman A. Al-Lehaibi

Abstract:

This paper presents an iteration method for the numerical solutions of a one-dimensional problem of generalized thermoelasticity with one relaxation time under given initial and boundary conditions. The thermoelastic material with variable properties as a power functional graded has been considered. Adomian’s decomposition techniques have been applied to the governing equations. The numerical results have been calculated by using the iterations method with a certain algorithm. The numerical results have been represented in figures, and the figures affirm that Adomian’s decomposition method is a successful method for modeling thermoelastic problems. Moreover, the empirical parameter of the functional graded, and the lattice design parameter have significant effects on the temperature increment, the strain, the stress, the displacement.

Keywords: Adomian, Decomposition Method, Generalized Thermoelasticity, algorithm, empirical parameter, lattice design.

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Authors: Fouad Ayoub, Mohammed Lahmer, Mostafa Belkasmi, El Houssine Bouyakhf

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In this paper we present a study of the impact of connection schemes on the performance of iterative decoding of Generalized Parallel Concatenated block (GPCB) constructed from one step majority logic decodable (OSMLD) codes and we propose a new connection scheme for decoding them. All iterative decoding connection schemes use a soft-input soft-output threshold decoding algorithm as a component decoder. Numerical result for GPCB codes transmitted over Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) channel are provided. It will show that the proposed scheme is better than Hagenauer-s scheme and Lucas-s scheme [1] and slightly better than the Pyndiah-s scheme.

Keywords: Generalized parallel concatenated block codes, OSMLD codes, threshold decoding, iterative decoding scheme, and performance.

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Authors: Zahra Yaghoubi, Nooshin Bigdeli, Karim Afshar

Abstract:

This paper at first presents approximate analytical solutions for systems of fractional differential equations using the differential transform method. The application of differential transform method, developed for differential equations of integer order, is extended to derive approximate analytical solutions of systems of fractional differential equations. The solutions of our model equations are calculated in the form of convergent series with easily computable components. After that a drive-response synchronization method with linear output error feedback is presented for “generalized projective synchronization" for a class of fractional-order chaotic systems via a scalar transmitted signal. Genesio_Tesi and Duffing systems are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization method.

Keywords: Generalized projective synchronization; Fractionalorder;Chaos; Caputo derivative; Differential transform method

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Authors: Alexander A. Muravyov

Abstract:

A minimal complexity version of component mode synthesis is presented that requires simplified computer programming, but still provides adequate accuracy for modeling lower eigenproperties of large structures and their transient responses. The novelty is that a structural separation into components is done along a plane/surface that exhibits rigid-like behavior, thus only normal modes of each component is sufficient to use, without computing any constraint, attachment, or residual-attachment modes. The approach requires only such input information as a few (lower) natural frequencies and corresponding undamped normal modes of each component. A novel technique is shown for formulation of equations of motion, where a double transformation to generalized coordinates is employed and formulation of nonproportional damping matrix in generalized coordinates is shown.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, finite element models, transient response, nonproportional damping

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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Authors: T. Sopapirm, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak, A. Srikaew

Abstract:

The paper presents the applications of artificial intelligence technique called adaptive tabu search to design the controller of a buck converter. The averaging model derived from the DQ and generalized state-space averaging methods is applied to simulate the system during a searching process. The simulations using such averaging model require the faster computational time compared with that of the full topology model from the software packages. The reported model is suitable for the work in the paper in which the repeating calculation is needed for searching the best solution. The results will show that the proposed design technique can provide the better output waveforms compared with those designed from the classical method.

Keywords: Buck converter, adaptive tabu search, DQ method, generalized state-space averaging method, modeling and simulation

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Authors: Bahi brahim, El hassane Ibn Elhaj, Driss Aboutajdine

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In this paper we propose a Multiple Description Image Coding(MDIC) scheme to generate two compressed and balanced rates descriptions in the wavelet domain (Daubechies biorthogonal (9, 7) wavelet) using pairwise correlating transform optimal and application method for Generalized Multiple Description Coding (GMDC) to image coding in the wavelet domain. The GMDC produces statistically correlated streams such that lost streams can be estimated from the received data. Our performance test shown that the proposed method gives more improvement and good quality of the reconstructed image when the wavelet coefficients are normalized by Gaussian Scale Mixture (GSM) model then the Gaussian one ,.

Keywords: Multiple description coding (MDC), gaussian scale mixture (GSM) model, joint source-channel coding, pairwise correlating transform, GMDCT.

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Authors: Bilal Alatas, Ahmet Arslan

Abstract:

The main goal of data mining is to extract accurate, comprehensible and interesting knowledge from databases that may be considered as large search spaces. In this paper, a new, efficient type of Genetic Algorithm (GA) called uniform two-level GA is proposed as a search strategy to discover truly interesting, high-level prediction rules, a difficult problem and relatively little researched, rather than discovering classification knowledge as usual in the literatures. The proposed method uses the advantage of uniform population method and addresses the task of generalized rule induction that can be regarded as a generalization of the task of classification. Although the task of generalized rule induction requires a lot of computations, which is usually not satisfied with the normal algorithms, it was demonstrated that this method increased the performance of GAs and rapidly found interesting rules.

Keywords: Classification rule mining, data mining, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: Aziz Sezgin

Abstract:

We consider the problem of stabilization of an unstable heat equation in a 2-D, 3-D and generally n-D domain by deriving a generalized backstepping boundary control design methodology. To stabilize the systems, we design boundary backstepping controllers inspired by the 1-D unstable heat equation stabilization procedure. We assume that one side of the boundary is hinged and the other side is controlled for each direction of the domain. Thus, controllers act on two boundaries for 2-D domain, three boundaries for 3-D domain and ”n” boundaries for n-D domain. The main idea of the design is to derive ”n” controllers for each of the dimensions by using ”n” kernel functions. Thus, we obtain ”n” controllers for the ”n” dimensional case. We use a transformation to change the system into an exponentially stable ”n” dimensional heat equation. The transformation used in this paper is a generalized Volterra/Fredholm type with ”n” kernel functions for n-D domain instead of the one kernel function of 1-D design.

Keywords: Backstepping, boundary control, 2-D, 3-D, n-D heat equation, distributed parameter systems.

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Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

Abstract:

Reversible logic as a new favorable design domain can be used for various fields especially creating quantum computers because of its speed and intangible power consumption. However, its susceptibility to a variety of environmental effects may lead to yield the incorrect results. In this paper, because of the importance of multiplication operation in various computing systems, some novel reversible logic array multipliers are proposed with error detection capability by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. The new designs are presented for two main parts of array multipliers, partial product generation and multi-operand addition, by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates, which results in two signed parity-preserving array multipliers. The experimental results reveal that the best proposed 4×4 multiplier in this paper reaches 12%, 24%, and 26% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, number of required gates, and quantum cost, respectively, compared to previous design. Moreover, the best proposed design is generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Array multipliers, Baugh-Wooley method, error detection, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic.

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Authors: Siyuan Jing, Kun She

Abstract:

Neighborhood Rough Sets (NRS) has been proven to be an efficient tool for heterogeneous attribute reduction. However, most of researches are focused on dealing with complete and noiseless data. Factually, most of the information systems are noisy, namely, filled with incomplete data and inconsistent data. In this paper, we introduce a generalized neighborhood rough sets model, called VPTNRS, to deal with the problem of heterogeneous attribute reduction in noisy system. We generalize classical NRS model with tolerance neighborhood relation and the probabilistic theory. Furthermore, we use the neighborhood dependency to evaluate the significance of a subset of heterogeneous attributes and construct a forward greedy algorithm for attribute reduction based on it. Experimental results show that the model is efficient to deal with noisy data.

Keywords: attribute reduction, incomplete data, inconsistent data, tolerance neighborhood relation, rough sets

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Authors: Mihai Rebenciuc, Simona Mihaela Bibic

Abstract:

Branch of modern mathematics, graphs represent instruments for optimization and solving practical applications in various fields such as economic networks, engineering, network optimization, the geometry of social action, generally, complex systems including contemporary urban problems (path or transport efficiencies, biourbanism, & c.). In this paper is studied the interconnection of some urban network, which can lead to a simulation problem of a digraph through another digraph. The simulation is made univoc or more general multivoc. The concepts of fragment and atom are very useful in the study of connectivity in the digraph that is simulation - including an alternative evaluation of k- connectivity. Rough set approach in (bi)digraph which is proposed in premier in this paper contribute to improved significantly the evaluation of k-connectivity. This rough set approach is based on generalized rough sets - basic facts are presented in this paper.

Keywords: (Bi)digraphs, rough set theory, systems of interacting agents, complex systems.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.

Keywords: Doppler shift, filtered Poisson process, generalized Clark’s model, non-isotropic scattering, partially developed scattering, Rician distribution.

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Authors: Iasha Meskhia, Rusudan Seturidze

Abstract:

Free access for Georgian goods to the EU markets is one of the important factors for Georgia’s economic development, attraction of investments and raising the standard of living. The European Union is the most important trade partner for Georgia. Great experience has been accumulated with respect to removing trade barriers between Georgia and the European Union. Despite it, certain problems still persist.

In the present article, we have reviewed the systems of preferences with the European Union, the EU’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the essence of ongoing reform; we have assessed weak and strong sides of relations established between the European Union and Georgia in this regard; analyzed Georgia’s export and import over the past years; also reviewed the prospect of a unified database; established existing and anticipated positive and negative factors. Based on the analysis, we have provided the relevant recommendations. 

Keywords: EU-Georgia trade, EU’s GSP reform, Georgia’s export-import, REX system.

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Authors: Mehran Yazdi, Zahra Adelpour, Batoul Bahraini, Yasaman Keshtkar Jahromi

Abstract:

In this paper we use the property of co-occurrence matrix in finding parallel lines in binary pictures for fingerprint identification. In our proposed algorithm, we reduce the noise by filtering the fingerprint images and then transfer the fingerprint images to binary images using a proper threshold. Next, we divide the binary images into some regions having parallel lines in the same direction. The lines in each region have a specific angle that can be used for comparison. This method is simple, performs the comparison step quickly and has a good resistance in the presence of the noise.

Keywords: Parallel lines detection, co-occurrence matrix, fingerprint identification.

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Authors: Mussa Mahmoudi

Abstract:

For Seismic design, it is important to estimate, maximum lateral displacement (inelastic displacement) of the structures due to sever earthquakes for several reasons. Seismic design provisions estimate the maximum roof and storey drifts occurring in major earthquakes by amplifying the drifts of the structures obtained by elastic analysis subjected to seismic design load, with a coefficient named “displacement amplification factor" which is greater than one. Here, this coefficient depends on various parameters, such as ductility and overstrength factors. The present research aims to evaluate the value of the displacement amplification factor in seismic design codes and then tries to propose a value to estimate the maximum lateral structural displacement from sever earthquakes, without using non-linear analysis. In seismic codes, since the displacement amplification is related to “force reduction factor" hence; this aspect has been accepted in the current study. Meanwhile, two methodologies are applied to evaluate the value of displacement amplification factor and its relation with the force reduction factor. In the first methodology, which is applied for all structures, the ratio of displacement amplification and force reduction factors is determined directly. Whereas, in the second methodology that is applicable just for R/C moment resisting frame, the ratio is obtained by calculating both factors, separately. The acquired results of these methodologies are alike and estimate the ratio of two factors from 1 to 1.2. The results indicate that the ratio of the displacement amplification factor and the force reduction factor differs to those proposed by seismic provisions such as NEHRP, IBC and Iranian seismic code (standard no. 2800).

Keywords: Displacement amplification factor, Ductility factor, Force reduction factor, Maximum lateral displacement.

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Authors: P. Ruttanee, K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak

Abstract:

Dynamic models of power converters are normally time-varying because of their switching actions. Several approaches are applied to analyze the power converters to achieve the timeinvariant models suitable for system analysis and design via the classical control theory. The paper presents how to derive dynamic models of the power system consisting of a three-phase controlled rectifier feeding an uncontrolled buck converter by using the combination between the well known techniques called the DQ and the generalized state-space averaging methods. The intensive timedomain simulations of the exact topology model are used to support the accuracies of the reported model. The results show that the proposed model can provide good accuracies in both transient and steady-state responses.

Keywords: DQ method, Generalized state-space averaging method, Three-phase controlled rectifier, Uncontrolled buck converter, Averaging model, Modeling, Simulation.

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Authors: Godwin A. Otogo, Sansanee Wangvoralak, Graham J. Pierce, Lee C. Hastie, Beth Scott

Abstract:

The squid Loligo forbesii is suspected to be an important species in marine food webs, as it can strongly impact its prey and be impacted upon by predation, competition, fishing and/or climate variability. To quantify these impacts in the food web, the measurement of its trophic position and ecological role within well-studied ecosystems is essential. An Ecopath model was balanced and run for the Moray Firth ecosystem and was used to investigate the significance of this squid’s trophic roles. The network analysis routine included in Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) was used to estimate trophic interaction, system indicators (health condition and developmental stage) and food web features. Results indicated that within the Moray Firth squid occupy a top trophic position in the food web and also a major prey item for many other species. Results from Omnivory Index (OI) showed that squid is a generalized feeder transferring energy across wide trophic levels and is more important as a predator than that as a prey in the Moray Firth ecosystem. The results highlight the importance of taking squid into account in the management of Europe’s living marine resources.

Keywords: Ecopath, Loligo forbesii, moray firth, squid, trophic-level.

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score model, stock returns, time-varying.

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Authors: I. Algul, G. Akgun, H. Kurtaran

Abstract:

Dynamic analysis of composite doubly curved panels with variable thickness subjected to different pulse types using Generalized Differential Quadrature method (GDQ) is presented in this study. Panels with variable thickness are used in the construction of aerospace and marine industry. Giving variable thickness to panels can allow the designer to get optimum structural efficiency. For this reason, estimating the response of variable thickness panels is very important to design more reliable structures under dynamic loads. Dynamic equations for composite panels with variable thickness are obtained using virtual work principle. Partial derivatives in the equation of motion are expressed with GDQ and Newmark average acceleration scheme is used for temporal discretization. Several examples are used to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results are compared with finite element method. Effects of taper ratios, boundary conditions and loading type on the response of composite panel are investigated.

Keywords: Generalized differential quadrature method, doubly curved panels, laminated composite materials, small displacement.

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Authors: H. Shareef, A. Mohamed, S. A. Khalid, Aziah Khamis

Abstract:

This paper presents application artificial intelligent (AI) techniques, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), to estimate the real power transfer between generators and loads. Since these AI techniques adopt supervised learning, it first uses modified nodal equation method (MNE) to determine real power contribution from each generator to loads. Then the results of MNE method and load flow information are utilized to estimate the power transfer using AI techniques. The 25-bus equivalent system of south Malaysia is utilized as a test system to illustrate the effectiveness of both AI methods compared to that of the MNE method. The mean squared error of the estimate of ANN and ANFIS power transfer allocation methods are 1.19E-05 and 2.97E-05, respectively. Furthermore, when compared to MNE method, ANN and ANFIS methods computes generator contribution to loads within 20.99 and 39.37msec respectively whereas the MNE method took 360msec for the calculation of same real power transfer allocation. 

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Power tracing, Artificial neural network, ANFIS, Power system deregulation.

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Authors: R. Khaniki, M.B. Menhaj, H. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Keywords: Generalized Predictive Control (GPC), TemperatureControl, Global Linearizing Control (GLC), Batch Reactor.

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Authors: R. Khaniki, M.B. Menhaj, H. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Keywords: Generalized Predictive Control (GPC), TemperatureControl, Global Linearizing Control (GLC), Batch Reactor.

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Zahra Mokhtari

Abstract:

Estimation time and cost of work completion in a project and follow up them during execution are contributors to success or fail of a project, and is very important for project management team. Delivering on time and within budgeted cost needs to well managing and controlling the projects. To dealing with complex task of controlling and modifying the baseline project schedule during execution, earned value management systems have been set up and widely used to measure and communicate the real physical progress of a project. But it often fails to predict the total duration of the project. In this paper data mining techniques is used predicting the total project duration in term of Time Estimate At Completion-EAC (t). For this purpose, we have used a project with 90 activities, it has updated day by day. Then, it is used regular indexes in literature and applied Earned Duration Method to calculate time estimate at completion and set these as input data for prediction and specifying the major parameters among them using Clem software. By using data mining, the effective parameters on EAC and the relationship between them could be extracted and it is very useful to manage a project with minimum delay risks. As we state, this could be a simple, safe and applicable method in prediction the completion time of a project during execution.

Keywords: Data Mining Techniques, Earned Duration Method, Earned Value, Estimate At Completion.

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