Search results for: Forecasting problem

Authors: Jindřiška Šedová, Miloš Šeda

Abstract:

This paper summarizes and compares approaches to solving the knapsack problem and its known application in capital budgeting. The first approach uses deterministic methods and can be applied to small-size tasks with a single constraint. We can also apply commercial software systems such as the GAMS modelling system. However, because of NP-completeness of the problem, more complex problem instances must be solved by means of heuristic techniques to achieve an approximation of the exact solution in a reasonable amount of time. We show the problem representation and parameter settings for a genetic algorithm framework.

Keywords: Capital budgeting, knapsack problem, GAMS, heuristic method, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Tami Alghamdi, Terence Soule

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To study how to transfer knowledge from multiple source problems to the target problem, we modeled the Transfer Learning (TL) process using Genetic Algorithms as the model solver. TL is the process that aims to transfer learned data from one problem to another problem. The TL process aims to help Machine Learning (ML) algorithms find a solution to the problems. The Genetic Algorithms (GA) give researchers access to information that we have about how the old problem is solved. In this paper, we have five different source problems, and we transfer the knowledge to the target problem. We studied different scenarios of the target problem. The results showed that combined knowledge from multiple source problems improves the GA performance. Also, the process of combining knowledge from several problems results in promoting diversity of the transferred population.

Keywords: Transfer Learning, Multiple Sources, Knowledge Transfer, Domain Adaptation, Source, Target.

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Authors: Nayera E. El-Gharably, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Aziz E. El-Sayed

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A key element of many distribution systems is the routing and scheduling of vehicles servicing a set of customers. A wide variety of exact and approximate algorithms have been proposed for solving the vehicle routing problems (VRP). Exact algorithms can only solve relatively small problems of VRP, which is classified as NP-Hard. Several approximate algorithms have proven successful in finding a feasible solution not necessarily optimum. Although different parts of the problem are stochastic in nature; yet, limited work relevant to the application of discrete event system simulation has addressed the problem. Presented here is optimization using simulation of VRP; where, a simplified problem has been developed in the ExtendSimTM simulation environment; where, ExtendSimTM evolutionary optimizer is used to minimize the total transportation cost of the problem. Results obtained from the model are very satisfactory. Further complexities of the problem are proposed for consideration in the future.

Keywords: Discrete event system simulation, optimization using simulation, vehicle routing problem.

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Authors: S. Nasri, H. Bouziri

Abstract:

Disasters are quite experienced in our days. They are caused by floods, landslides, and building fires that is the main objective of this study. To cope with these unexpected events, precautions must be taken to protect human lives. The emphasis on disposal work focuses on the resolution of the evacuation problem in case of no-notice disaster. The problem of evacuation is listed as a dynamic network flow problem. Particularly, we model the evacuation problem as an earliest arrival flow problem with load dependent transit time. This problem is classified as NP-Hard. Our challenge here is to propose a metaheuristic solution for solving the evacuation problem. We define our objective as the maximization of evacuees during earliest periods of a time horizon T. The objective provides the evacuation of persons as soon as possible. We performed an experimental study on emergency evacuation from the tunisian children’s hospital. This work prompts us to look for evacuation plans corresponding to several situations where the network dynamically changes.

Keywords: Dynamic network flow, Load dependent transit time, Evacuation strategy, Earliest arrival flow problem.

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Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

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Minimization methods for training feed-forward networks with Backpropagation are compared. Feedforward network training is a special case of functional minimization, where no explicit model of the data is assumed. Therefore due to the high dimensionality of the data, linearization of the training problem through use of orthogonal basis functions is not desirable. The focus is functional minimization on any basis. A number of methods based on local gradient and Hessian matrices are discussed. Modifications of many methods of first and second order training methods are considered. Using share rates data, experimentally it is proved that Conjugate gradient and Quasi Newton?s methods outperformed the Gradient Descent methods. In case of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is of special interest in financial forecasting.

Keywords: Backpropagation algorithm, conjugacy condition, line search, matrix perturbation

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Authors: M. Dinakaran, P. Balasubramanie

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With the demand of mobility by users, wireless technologies have become the hotspot developing arena. Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) working group has developed Mobile IP to support node mobility. The concept of node mobility indicates that in spite of the movement of the node, it is still connected to the internet and all the data transactions are preserved. It provides location-independent access to Internet. After the incorporation of host mobility, network mobility has undergone intense research. There are several intricacies faced in the real world implementation of network mobility significantly the problem of nested networks and their consequences. This article is concerned regarding a problem of nested network called pinball route problem and proposes a solution to eliminate the above problem. The proposed mechanism is implemented using NS2 simulation tool and it is found that the proposed mechanism efficiently reduces the overload caused by the pinball route problem.

Keywords: Mobile IP, Pinball routing problem, NEMO

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

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Optimal capacitor allocation in distribution systems has been studied for a long times. It is an optimization problem which has an objective to define the optimal sizes and locations of capacitors to be installed. In this works, an overview of capacitor placement problem in distribution systems is briefly introduced. The objective functions and constraints of the problem are listed and the methodologies for solving the problem are summarized.

Keywords: Capacitor Placement, Distribution Systems, Optimization Techniques

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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Authors: Divyesh Patel, Tanuja Srivastava

Abstract:

This paper considers the NP-hard problem of reconstructing binary matrices satisfying exactly-1-4-adjacency constraint from its row and column projections. This problem is formulated into a maximization problem. The objective function gives a measure of adjacency constraint for the binary matrices. The maximization problem is solved by the simulated annealing algorithm and experimental results are presented.

Keywords: Discrete Tomography, exactly-1-4-adjacency, simulated annealing.

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Authors: R. Hashemi, M.H.Kargarnovin

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This paper presents the identification of the impact force acting on a simply supported beam. The force identification is an inverse problem in which the measured response of the structure is used to determine the applied force. The identification problem is formulated as an optimization problem and the genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the optimization problem. The objective function is calculated on the difference between analytical and measured responses and the decision variables are the location and magnitude of the applied force. The results from simulation show the effectiveness of the approach and its robustness vs. the measurement noise and sensor location.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Inverse problem, Optimization, Vibration.

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Authors: Broderick Crawford, Ricardo Soto, Natalia Berrios, Eduardo Olguin

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In this paper, we present a binary cat swarm optimization for solving the Set covering problem. The set covering problem is a well-known NP-hard problem with many practical applications, including those involving scheduling, production planning and location problems. Binary cat swarm optimization is a recent swarm metaheuristic technique based on the behavior of discrete cats. Domestic cats show the ability to hunt and are curious about moving objects. The cats have two modes of behavior: seeking mode and tracing mode. We illustrate this approach with 65 instances of the problem from the OR-Library. Moreover, we solve this problem with 40 new binarization techniques and we select the technical with the best results obtained. Finally, we make a comparison between results obtained in previous studies and the new binarization technique, that is, with roulette wheel as transfer function and V3 as discretization technique.

Keywords: Binary cat swarm optimization, set covering problem, metaheuristic, binarization methods.

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Authors: S. Balaji, V. Swaminathan, K. Kannan

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The Minimum Weighted Vertex Cover (MWVC) problem is a classic graph optimization NP - complete problem. Given an undirected graph G = (V, E) and weighting function defined on the vertex set, the minimum weighted vertex cover problem is to find a vertex set S V whose total weight is minimum subject to every edge of G has at least one end point in S. In this paper an effective algorithm, called Support Ratio Algorithm (SRA), is designed to find the minimum weighted vertex cover of a graph. Computational experiments are designed and conducted to study the performance of our proposed algorithm. Extensive simulation results show that the SRA can yield better solutions than other existing algorithms found in the literature for solving the minimum vertex cover problem.

Keywords: Weighted vertex cover, vertex support, approximation algorithms, NP-complete problem.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Halizah Awang, Ishak Ramly

Abstract:

Problem-based learning (PBL) is one of the student centered approaches and has been considered by a number of higher educational institutions in many parts of the world as a method of delivery. This paper presents a creative thinking approach for implementing Problem-based Learning in Mechanics of Structure within a Malaysian Polytechnics environment. In the learning process, students learn how to analyze the problem given among the students and sharing classroom knowledge into practice. Further, through this course-s emphasis on problem-based learning, students acquire creative thinking skills and professional skills as they tackle complex, interdisciplinary and real-situation problems. Once the creative ideas are generated, there are useful additional techniques for tender ideas that will grow into a productive concept or solution. The combination of creative skills and technical abilities will enable the students to be ready to “hit-the-ground-running" and produce in industry when they graduate.

Keywords: Creative Thinking Skills, Problem-based Learning, Problem Solving.

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Authors: Ching-Shoei Chiang

Abstract:

The Malfatti’s problem solves the problem of fitting three circles into a right triangle such that these three circles are tangent to each other, and each circle is also tangent to a pair of the triangle’s sides. This problem has been extended to any triangle (called general Malfatti’s problem). Furthermore, the problem has been extended to have 1 + 2 + … + n circles inside the triangle with special tangency properties among circles and triangle sides; it is called the extended general Malfatti’s problem. In the extended general Malfatti’s problem, call it Tri(Tn), where Tn is the triangle number, there are closed-form solutions for the Tri(T₁) (inscribed circle) problem and Tri(T₂) (3 Malfatti’s circles) problem. These problems become more complex when n is greater than 2. In solving the Tri(Tn) problem, n > 2, algorithms have been proposed to solve these problems numerically. With a similar idea, this paper proposed an algorithm to find the radii of circles with the same tangency properties. Instead of the boundary of the triangle being a straight line, we use a convex circular arc as the boundary and try to find Tn circles inside this convex circular triangle with the same tangency properties among circles and boundary as in Tri(Tn) problems. We call these problems the Carc(Tn) problems. The algorithm is a mO(Tn) algorithm, where m is the number of iterations in the loop. It takes less than 1000 iterations and less than 1 second for the Carc(T16) problem, which finds 136 circles inside a convex circular triangle with specified tangency properties. This algorithm gives a solution for circle packing problem inside convex circular triangle with arbitrarily-sized circles. Many applications concerning circle packing may come from the result of the algorithm, such as logo design, architecture design, etc.

Keywords: Circle packing, computer-aided geometric design, geometric constraint solver, Malfatti’s problem.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Fatma A. Karkory, Ali A. Abudalmola

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The travelling salesman problem (TSP) is a combinatorial optimization problem in which the goal is to find the shortest path between different cities that the salesman takes. In other words, the problem deals with finding a route covering all cities so that total distance and execution time is minimized. This paper adopts the nearest neighbor and minimum spanning tree algorithm to solve the well-known travelling salesman problem. The algorithms were implemented using java programming language. The approach is tested on three graphs that making a TSP tour instance of 5-city, 10 –city, and 229–city. The computation results validate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Heuristics, minimum spanning tree algorithm, Nearest Neighbor, Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP).

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Authors: Francisco Miranda

Abstract:

The optimization problem using time scales is studied. Time scale is a model of time. The language of time scales seems to be an ideal tool to unify the continuous-time and the discrete-time theories. In this work we present necessary conditions for a solution of an optimization problem on time scales. To obtain that result we use properties and results of the partial diamond-alpha derivatives for continuous-multivariable functions. These results are also presented here.

Keywords: Lagrange multipliers, mathematical programming, optimization problem, time scales.

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Authors: S. Babaie-Kafaki, R. Ghanbari, S.H. Nasseri, E. Ardil

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Bus networks design is an important problem in public transportation. The main step to this design, is determining the number of required terminals and their locations. This is an especial type of facility location problem, a large scale combinatorial optimization problem that requires a long time to be solved. The genetic algorithm (GA) is a search and optimization technique which works based on evolutionary principle of natural chromosomes. Specifically, the evolution of chromosomes due to the action of crossover, mutation and natural selection of chromosomes based on Darwin's survival-of-the-fittest principle, are all artificially simulated to constitute a robust search and optimization procedure. In this paper, we first state the problem as a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. Then we design a new crossover and mutation for bus terminal location problem (BTLP). We tested the different parameters of genetic algorithm (for a sample problem) and obtained the optimal parameters for solving BTLP with numerical try and error.

Keywords: Bus networks, Genetic algorithm (GA), Locationproblem, Mixed integer programming (MIP).

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Authors: Chaghoub Soraya, Zhang Xiaoyan

Abstract:

This research presents the first constant approximation algorithm to the p-median network design problem with multiple cable types. This problem was addressed with a single cable type and there is a bifactor approximation algorithm for the problem. To the best of our knowledge, the algorithm proposed in this paper is the first constant approximation algorithm for the p-median network design with multiple cable types. The addressed problem is a combination of two well studied problems which are p-median problem and network design problem. The introduced algorithm is a random sampling approximation algorithm of constant factor which is conceived by using some random sampling techniques form the literature. It is based on a redistribution Lemma from the literature and a steiner tree problem as a subproblem. This algorithm is simple, and it relies on the notions of random sampling and probability. The proposed approach gives an approximation solution with one constant ratio without violating any of the constraints, in contrast to the one proposed in the literature. This paper provides a (21 + 2)-approximation algorithm for the p-median network design problem with multiple cable types using random sampling techniques.

Keywords: Approximation algorithms, buy-at-bulk, combinatorial optimization, network design, p-median.

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Authors: Ei Phyo Wai, Nay Min Tun

Abstract:

Computation of facility location problem for every location in the country is not easy simultaneously. Solving the problem is described by using cluster computing. A technique is to design parallel algorithm by using local search with single swap method in order to solve that problem on clusters. Parallel implementation is done by the use of portable parallel programming, Message Passing Interface (MPI), on Microsoft Windows Compute Cluster. In this paper, it presents the algorithm that used local search with single swap method and implementation of the system of a facility to be opened by using MPI on cluster. If large datasets are considered, the process of calculating a reasonable cost for a facility becomes time consuming. The result shows parallel computation of facility location problem on cluster speedups and scales well as problem size increases.

Keywords: cluster, cost, demand, facility location

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Authors: Myint Myint Yi, Khin Sandar Linn, Marlar Kyaw

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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data. They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in STLF.

Keywords: Neural network, Load forecast, Time series, wavelettransform.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Tsuyoshi Okita

Abstract:

For a given specific problem an efficient algorithm has been the matter of study. However, an alternative approach orthogonal to this approach comes out, which is called a reduction. In general for a given specific problem this reduction approach studies how to convert an original problem into subproblems. This paper proposes a formal modeling language to support this reduction approach in order to make a solver quickly. We show three examples from the wide area of learning problems. The benefit is a fast prototyping of algorithms for a given new problem. It is noted that our formal modeling language is not intend for providing an efficient notation for data mining application, but for facilitating a designer who develops solvers in machine learning.

Keywords: Formal language, statistical inference problem, reduction.

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Authors: Supriya Arya, Sunita Dhingra

Abstract:

Multiprocessor task scheduling problem for dependent and independent tasks is computationally complex problem. Many methods are proposed to achieve optimal running time. As the multiprocessor task scheduling is NP hard in nature, therefore, many heuristics are proposed which have improved the makespan of the problem. But due to problem specific nature, the heuristic method which provide best results for one problem, might not provide good results for another problem. So, Simulated Annealing which is meta heuristic approach is considered. It can be applied on all types of problems. However, due to many runs, meta heuristic approach takes large computation time. Hence, the hybrid approach is proposed by combining the Duplication Scheduling Heuristic and Simulated Annealing (SA) and the makespan results of Simple Simulated Annealing and Hybrid approach are analyzed.

Keywords: Multiprocessor task scheduling Problem, Makespan, Duplication Scheduling Heuristic, Simulated Annealing, Hybrid Approach.

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Authors: Daniela I. Borissova, Ivan C. Mustakerov

Abstract:

The paper addresses a problem of optimal staffing in open shop environment. The problem is to determine the optimal number of operators serving a given number of machines to fulfill the number of independent operations while minimizing staff idle. Using a Gantt chart presentation of the problem it is modeled as twodimensional cutting stock problem. A mixed-integer programming model is used to get minimal job processing time (makespan) for fixed number of machines' operators. An algorithm for optimal openshop staffing is developed based on iterative solving of the formulated optimization task. The execution of the developed algorithm provides optimal number of machines' operators in the sense of minimum staff idle and optimal makespan for that number of operators. The proposed algorithm is tested numerically for a real life staffing problem. The testing results show the practical applicability for similar open shop staffing problems.

Keywords: Integer programming, open shop problem, optimal staffing.

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Authors: Neda Shahidi, Hadi Esmaeilzadeh, Marziye Abdollahi, Caro Lucas

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In this paper, the problem of finding the optimal collision free path for a mobile robot, the path planning problem, is solved using an advanced evolutionary algorithm called memetic algorithm. What is new in this work is a novel representation of solutions for evolutionary algorithms that is efficient, simple and also compatible with memetic algorithm. The new representation makes it possible to solve the problem with a small population and in a few generations. It also makes the genetic operator simple and allows using an efficient local search operator within the evolutionary algorithm. The proposed algorithm is applied to two instances of path planning problem and the results are available.

Keywords: Path planning problem, Memetic Algorithm, Representation.

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Authors: Shahab Kavehkar, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, Valeriy Khokhlov, Afshin Ashrafzadeh, Sabereh Darbandi

Abstract:

Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.

Keywords: Water-Level variation, forecasting, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, comparative analysis.

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