Search results for: Risk Analysis

Authors: Dale Dzemydiene, Aurelija Burinskiene, Arunas Miliauskas, Kristina Ciziuniene

Abstract:

Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

Keywords: Multi-objective decision support, analysis, data validation, freight delivery, multi-modal transportation, genetic programming methods.

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Authors: Abid Hossain Khan, Syam Hasan, M. A. R. Sarkar

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Fukushima disaster is one of the most publicly exposed accidents in a nuclear facility which has changed the outlook of people towards nuclear power. Some have used it as an example to establish nuclear energy as an unsafe source, while others have tried to find the real reasons behind this accident. Many papers have tried to shed light on the possible causes, some of which are purely based on assumptions while others rely on rigorous data analysis. To our best knowledge, none of the works can say with absolute certainty that there is a single prominent reason that has paved the way to this unexpected incident. This paper attempts to compile all the apparent reasons behind Fukushima disaster and tries to analyze and identify the most likely one.

Keywords: Fuel meltdown, Fukushima disaster, manmade calamity, nuclear facility, tsunami.

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Authors: Xinhua Zhang, Kelin Li

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In this paper, the problem of stability analysis for a class of impulsive stochastic fuzzy neural networks with timevarying delays and reaction-diffusion is considered. By utilizing suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii funcational, the inequality technique and stochastic analysis technique, some sufficient conditions ensuring global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks with time-varying delays and diffusion are obtained. In particular, the estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters, diffusion effect and impulsive disturbed intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of fuzzy neural networks. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: Exponential stability, stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks, time-varying delays, impulses, reaction-diffusion terms.

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

Abstract:

Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: Technical Analysis, Expert System, Law of demand, Stocks, Portfolio Analysis, Indian Automotive Sector.

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: Inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty.

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Authors: Mohammad S. Laghari, Qurban A. Memon, Gulzar A. Khuwaja

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The paper describes a knowledge based system for analysis of microscopic wear particles. Wear particles contained in lubricating oil carry important information concerning machine condition, in particular the state of wear. Experts (Tribologists) in the field extract this information to monitor the operation of the machine and ensure safety, efficiency, quality, productivity, and economy of operation. This procedure is not always objective and it can also be expensive. The aim is to classify these particles according to their morphological attributes of size, shape, edge detail, thickness ratio, color, and texture, and by using this classification thereby predict wear failure modes in engines and other machinery. The attribute knowledge links human expertise to the devised Knowledge Based Wear Particle Analysis System (KBWPAS). The system provides an automated and systematic approach to wear particle identification which is linked directly to wear processes and modes that occur in machinery. This brings consistency in wear judgment prediction which leads to standardization and also less dependence on Tribologists.

Keywords: Computer vision, knowledge based systems, morphology, wear particles.

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Authors: Maíra O. Palm, Cintia Marangoni, Ozair Souza, Noeli Sellin

Abstract:

Wastes from a vegetal extracts industry (cocoa, oak, Guarana and mate) were characterized by particle size, proximate and ultimate analysis, lignocellulosic fractions, high heating value, thermal analysis (Thermogravimetric analysis – TGA, and Differential thermal analysis - DTA) and energy density to evaluate their potential as biomass in the form of briquettes for power generation. All wastes presented adequate particle sizes to briquettes production. The wastes showed high moisture content, requiring previous drying for use as briquettes. Cocoa and oak wastes had the highest volatile matter contents with maximum mass loss at 310 ºC and 450 ºC, respectively. The solvents used in the aroma extraction process influenced in the moisture content of the wastes, which was higher for mate due to water has been used as solvent. All wastes showed an insignificant loss mass after 565 °C, hence resulting in low ash content. High carbon and hydrogen contents and low sulfur and nitrogen contents were observed ensuring a low generation of sulfur and nitrous oxides. Mate and cocoa exhibited the highest carbon and lignin content, and high heating value. The dried wastes had high heating value, from 17.1 MJ/kg to 20.8 MJ/kg. The results indicate the energy potential of wastes for use as fuel in power generation.

Keywords: Agro-industrial waste, biomass, briquettes, combustion.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Bugao Wang, Weifeng Wang, Xianwei Zeng

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Researches on the general rules of temperature field changing and their effects on the bridge in construction are necessary. This paper investigated the rules of temperature field changing and its effects on bridge using onsite measurement and computational analysis. Guanyinsha Bridge was used as a case study in this research. The temperature field was simulated in analyses. The effects of certain boundary conditions such as sun radiance, wind speed, and model parameters such as heat factor and specific heat on temperature field are investigated. Recommended values for these parameters are proposed. The simulated temperature field matches the measured observations with high accuracy. At the same time, the stresses and deflections of the bridge computed with the simulated temperature field matches measured values too. As a conclusion, the temperature effect analysis of reinforced concrete box girder can be conducted directly based on the reliable weather data of the concerned area.

Keywords: continuous rigid frame bridge, temperature effectanalysis, temperature field, temperature field simulation

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Authors: D. Benasciutti, M. Gallina, M. Gh. Munteanu, F. Flumian

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This paper presents a numerical approach for the static and dynamic analysis of hydrodynamic radial journal bearings. In the first part, the effect of shaft and housing deformability on pressure distribution within oil film is investigated. An iterative algorithm that couples Reynolds equation with a plane finite elements (FE) structural model is solved. Viscosity-to-pressure dependency (Vogel- Barus equation) is also included. The deformed lubrication gap and the overall stress state are obtained. Numerical results are presented with reference to a typical journal bearing configuration at two different inlet oil temperatures. Obtained results show the great influence of bearing components structural deformation on oil pressure distribution, compared with results for ideally rigid components. In the second part, a numerical approach based on perturbation method is used to compute stiffness and damping matrices, which characterize the journal bearing dynamic behavior.

Keywords: Journal bearing, finite elements, deformation, dynamic analysis

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Authors: N.R.N. Idris

Abstract:

This study uses simulated meta-analysis to assess the effects of publication bias on meta-analysis estimates and to evaluate the efficacy of the trim and fill method in adjusting for these biases. The estimated effect sizes and the standard error were evaluated in terms of the statistical bias and the coverage probability. The results demonstrate that if publication bias is not adjusted it could lead to up to 40% bias in the treatment effect estimates. Utilization of the trim and fill method could reduce the bias in the overall estimate by more than half. The method is optimum in presence of moderate underlying bias but has minimal effects in presence of low and severe publication bias. Additionally, the trim and fill method improves the coverage probability by more than half when subjected to the same level of publication bias as those of the unadjusted data. The method however tends to produce false positive results and will incorrectly adjust the data for publication bias up to 45 % of the time. Nonetheless, the bias introduced into the estimates due to this adjustment is minimal

Keywords: Publication bias, Trim and Fill method, percentage relative bias, coverage probability

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Authors: Felipe Azocar Simonet, Luis Acosta Espejo

Abstract:

In this article, we will try to find an efficient boundary approximation for the bi-objective location problem with coherent coverage for two levels of hierarchy (CCLP). We present the mathematical formulation of the model used. Supported efficient solutions and unsupported efficient solutions are obtained by solving the bi-objective combinatorial problem through the weights method using a Lagrangean heuristic. Subsequently, the results are validated through the DEA analysis with the GEM index (Global efficiency measurement).

Keywords: Coherent covering location problem, efficient frontier, Lagrangian relaxation, data envelopment analysis.

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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A 15-storey RC building, studied in this paper, is representative of modern building type constructed in Madina City in Saudi Arabia before 10 years ago. These buildings are almost consisting of reinforced concrete skeleton i.e. columns, beams and flat slab as well as shear walls in the stairs and elevator areas arranged in the way to have a resistance system for lateral loads (wind – earthquake loads). In this study, the dynamic properties of the 15-storey RC building were identified using ambient motions recorded at several, spatially-distributed locations within each building. Three dimensional pushover analysis (Nonlinear static analysis) was carried out using SAP2000 software incorporating inelastic material properties for concrete, infill and steel. The effect of modeling the building with and without infill walls, on the performance point as well as capacity and demand spectra due to EQ design spectrum function in Madina area has been investigated. ATC- 40 capacity and demand spectra are utilized to get the modification factor (R) for the studied building. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the expected performance of structural systems by estimating, strength and deformation demands in design, and comparing these demands to available capacities at the performance levels of interest. The results are summarized and discussed.

Keywords: Seismic assessment, pushover analysis, ambient vibration, modal update.

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Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

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In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Dynamic DEA, Piecewise linear inputs, Piecewise linear outputs.

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Authors: A.S. Kipcak, N. Baran Acarali, S. Kolemen, N. Tugrul, E. Moroydor Derun, S. Piskin

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Fly ash is one of the residues generated in combustion, and comprises the fine particles that rise with the flue gases. Ash which does not rise is termed bottom ash [1]. In our country, it is expected that will be occurred 50 million tons of waste ash per year until 2020. Released waste from the thermal power plants is caused very significant problems as known. The fly ashes can be evaluated by using as adsorbent material. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of use of Tuncbilek fly ash like low-cost adsorbents for heavy metal adsorption. First of all, Tuncbilek fly ash was characterized. For this purpose; analysis such as sieve analysis, XRD, XRF, SEM and FT-IR were performed.

Keywords: Fly ash, heavy metal, sieve, adsorbent

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Authors: Tomoya Okubo, Kuninori Nakamura, Shin-ichi Mayekawa

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In this research, a latent class vector model for pairwise data is formulated. As compared to the basic vector model, this model yields consistent estimates of the parameters since the number of parameters to be estimated does not increase with the number of subjects. The result of the analysis reveals that the model was stable and could classify each subject to the latent classes representing the typical scales used by these subjects.

Keywords: finite mixture models, latent class analysis, Thrustone's paired comparison method, vector model

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Authors: Yukiyo Yamamoto, Jun Furuya, Shintaro Kobayashi

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Using 1km grid datasets representing monthly mean precipitation, monthly mean temperature, and dry matter production (DMP), we considered the regional plant production ability in Southeast and South Asia, and also employed pixel-by-pixel correlation analysis to assess the intensity of relation between climate factors and plant production. While annual DMP in South Asia was approximately less than 2,000kg, the one in most part of Southeast Asia exceeded 2,500 - 3,000kg. It suggested that plant production in Southeast Asia was superior to South Asia, however, Rain-Use Efficiency (RUE) representing dry matter production per 1mm precipitation showed that inland of Indochina Peninsula and India were higher than islands in Southeast Asia. By the results of correlation analysis between climate factors and DMP, while the area in most parts of Indochina Peninsula indicated negative correlation coefficients between DMP and precipitation or temperature, the area in Malay Peninsula and islands showed negative correlation to precipitation and positive one to temperature, and most part of India dominating South Asia showed positive to precipitation and negative to temperature. In addition, the areas where the correlation coefficients exceeded |0.8| were regarded as “susceptible" to climate factors, and the areas smaller than |0.2| were “insusceptible". By following the discrimination, the map implying expected impacts by climate change was provided.

Keywords: Asia, correlation analysis, plant production, precipitation, temperature.

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Authors: W. S. Hsu, Y. Chiang, Y. S. Tseng, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

Abstract:

Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 plant in Taiwan. There is more concern for the safety of NPPs in Taiwan after Japan Fukushima NPP disaster occurred. Hence, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP spent fuel pool (SFP), by using TRACE, MELCOR, and SNAP codes, the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP SFP was performed. There were two main steps in this research. First, the Kuosheng NPP SFP models were established. Second, the transient analysis of Kuosheng SFP was done by TRACE and MELCOR under the cooling system failure condition (Fukushima-like condition). The results showed that the calculations of MELCOR and TRACE were very similar in this case, and the fuel uncover happened roughly at 4^th day after the failure of cooling system. The above results indicated that Kuosheng NPP SFP may be unsafe in the case of long-term SBO situation. In addition, future calculations were needed to be done by the other codes like FRAPTRAN for the cladding calculations.

Keywords: TRACE, MELCOR, SNAP, spent fuel pool.

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Authors: Long Kim Vu, Ban Dang Nguyen

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In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) is utilized to simulate the comprehensive process including tightening, releasing and self-loosening of a bolt joint under transverse vibration. Following to the accurate geometry of helical threads, an absolutely hexahedral meshing is implemented. The accuracy of simulation process is verified and validated by comparison with the experimental results on clamping force-vibration relationship, which shows the sufficient correlation. Further analysis with different amplitude and frequency of transverse vibration is done to determine the dominant factor inducing the failure.

Keywords: Bolt self-loosening, contact state, FEM, transverse vibration.

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Authors: F. Habib, A. Shokoohi

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Urban problems are problems of organized complexity. Thus, many models and scientific methods to resolve urban problems are failed. This study is concerned with proposing of a fuzzy system driven approach for classification and solving urban problems. The proposed study investigated mainly the selection of the inputs and outputs of urban systems for classification of urban problems. In this research, five categories of urban problems, respect to fuzzy system approach had been recognized: control, polytely, optimizing, open and decision making problems. Grounded Theory techniques were then applied to analyze the data and develop new solving method for each category. The findings indicate that the fuzzy system methods are powerful processes and analytic tools for helping planners to resolve urban complex problems. These tools can be successful where as others have failed because both incorporate or address uncertainty and risk; complexity and systems interacting with other systems.

Keywords: Classification, complexity, Fuzzy theory, urban problems.

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Authors: Fathi M. O. Hamed, Salma F. Elkofhaifee

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The aim of this work is to detect geometrical shape objects in an image. In this paper, the object is considered to be as a circle shape. The identification requires find three characteristics, which are number, size, and location of the object. To achieve the goal of this work, this paper presents an algorithm that combines from some of statistical approaches and image analysis techniques. This algorithm has been implemented to arrive at the major objectives in this paper. The algorithm has been evaluated by using simulated data, and yields good results, and then it has been applied to real data.

Keywords: Image processing, median filter, projection, scalespace, segmentation, threshold.

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Authors: Mohammed H. Rady, Mohd Sukri Mustapa, S Shamsudin, M. A. Lajis, A. Wagiman

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The present study is aimed at investigating microhardness and density of aluminium alloy chips when subjected to various settings of preheating temperature and preheating time. Three values of preheating temperature were taken as 450 °C, 500 °C, and 550 °C. On the other hand, three values of preheating time were chosen (1, 2, 3) hours. The influences of the process parameters (preheating temperature and time) were analyzed using Design of Experiments (DOE) approach whereby full factorial design with center point analysis was adopted. The total runs were 11 and they comprise of two factors of full factorial design with 3 center points. The responses were microhardness and density. The results showed that the density and microhardness increased with decreasing the preheating temperature. The results also found that the preheating temperature is more important to be controlled rather than the preheating time in microhardness analysis while both the preheating temperature and preheating time are important in density analysis. It can be concluded that setting temperature at 450 °C for 1 hour resulted in the optimum responses.

Keywords: AA6061, density, DOE, hot extrusion, microhardness.

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Authors: A. Maria G. Melero, A. M. Senna, J. A. Domingues, M. A. Hausen, E. Aparecida R. Duek, V. R. Botaro

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A hydrogel from cellulose acetate cross linked with ethylenediaminetetraacetic dianhydride (HAC-EDTA) was synthesized by our research group, and submitted to characterization and biological tests. Cytocompatibility analysis was performed by confocal microscopy using human adipocyte derived stem cells (ASCs). The FTIR analysis showed characteristic bands of cellulose acetate and hydroxyl groups and the tensile tests evidence that HAC-EDTA present a Young’s modulus of 643.7 MPa. The confocal analysis revealed that there was cell growth at the surface of HAC-EDTA. After one day of culture the cells presented spherical morphology, which may be caused by stress of the sequestration of Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ ions at the cell medium by HAC-EDTA, as demonstrated by ICP-MS. However, after seven days and 14 days of culture, the cells present fibroblastoid morphology, phenotype expected by this cellular type. The results give efforts to indicate this new material as a potential biomaterial for tissue engineering, in the future in vivo approach.

Keywords: Cellulose acetate, hydrogel, biomaterial, cellular growth.

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Authors: B. Singh, K. K. Agrawal, B. K. Nanda

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In built-up structures, one of the effective ways of dissipating unwanted vibration is to exploit the occurrence of slip at the interfaces of structural laminates. The present work focuses on the dynamic analysis of welded structures. A mathematical formulation has been developed for the mechanism of slip damping in layered and welded mild steel beams with unequal thickness subjected to both periodic and non-periodic forces. It is observed that a number of vital parameters such as; thickness ratio, pressure distribution characteristics, relative slip and kinematic co-efficient of friction at the interfaces, nature of exciting forces, length and thickness of the beam specimen govern the damping characteristics of these structures. Experimental verification has been carried out to validate the analysis and study the effect of these parameters. The developed damping model for the structure is found to be in fairly good agreement with the measured data. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed and rationalized.

Keywords: Slip damping, tack welded joint, thickness ratio, inplane bending stress

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Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva

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In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.

Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.

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Authors: M. Adeel

Abstract:

The damage tolerance behavior of integrally and conventional stiffened panel is investigated based on the fracture mechanics and finite element analysis. The load bearing capability and crack growth characteristic of both types of the stiffened panels having same configuration subjected to distributed tensile load is examined in this paper. A fourteen-stringer stiffened panel is analyzed for a central skin crack propagating towards the adjacent stringers. Stress intensity factors and fatigue crack propagation rates of both types of the stiffened panels are then compared. The analysis results show that integral stiffening causes higher stress intensity factor than conventional stiffened panel as the crack tip passes through the stringer and the integrally stiffened panel has less load bearing capability than the riveted stiffened panel.

Keywords: Conventional Stiffened Structure, Damage Tolerance, Finite Element Analysis, Integrally Stiffened Structure, Stress Intensity Factor.

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Authors: Kyogun Chang, Yoon Bok Lee

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Fault detection determines faultexistence and detecting time. This paper discusses two layered fault detection methods to enhance the reliability and safety. Two layered fault detection methods consist of fault detection methods of component level controllers and system level controllers. Component level controllers detect faults by using limit checking, model-based detection, and data-driven detection and system level controllers execute detection by stability analysis which can detect unknown changes. System level controllers compare detection results via stability with fault signals from lower level controllers. This paper addresses fault detection methods via stability and suggests fault detection criteria in nonlinear systems. The fault detection method applies tothe hybrid control unit of a military hybrid electric vehicleso that the hybrid control unit can detect faults of the traction motor.

Keywords: Two Layered Fault Detection, Stability Analysis, Fault-Tolerant Control

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Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Ashley Hopwell, Alistair Duffy

Abstract:

Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014) from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to understand the significance of factors identified using correlation. The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to the weekly and daily demand.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Deteriorating Products, Food Wholesalers, Principal Component Analysis and Variability Factors.

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Authors: Mudafara S Bengleil

Abstract:

Estimation of the magnitude and causes of poisoning was the objective of the current study. A retrospective study of medical records of all poisoning children admitted to Benghazi Children Hospital in Libya from January 2008 up to December 2010. Number of children admitted was 244; the age ranged from less than one to 13 years old. Most of cases were admitted with mild symptom and the majority of them were boys. Only few cases admitted to intensive care unit and there was no mortality recorded through the period of study. Age group 1 to 3 years (50.8%) had the highest frequency of admission and the peak of admission was during summer. The most common cause of admission was due to ingestion of medication (53.69%), House hold product exposure (26.64%) was the second causes of admission while, 19.67% of admissions were due to Food poisoning. Almost all admitted cases were accidental and medicines were the most consumed substances in addition, improper storage of toxic agents were the first risk factor of poisoning. Present results indicated that, children poisoning seems to be a common pediatric care problem which need to control and prevent.

Keywords: Children, hospital, poisoning.

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Authors: Hsiao-Tien Pao, Yi-Ying Li, Hsin-Chia Fu

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This paper addressed the impacts of energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, and population size on environmental degradation using grey relational analysis (GRA) for China, where foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows is the proxy variable for financial development. The more recent historical data during the period 2004–2011 are used, because the use of very old data for data analysis may not be suitable for rapidly developing countries. The results of the GRA indicate that the linkage effects of energy consumption–emissions and GDP–emissions are ranked first and second, respectively. These reveal that energy consumption and economic growth are strongly correlated with emissions. Higher economic growth requires more energy consumption and increasing environmental pollution. Likewise, more efficient energy use needs a higher level of economic development. Therefore, policies to improve energy efficiency and create a low-carbon economy can reduce emissions without hurting economic growth. The finding of FDI–emissions linkage is ranked third. This indicates that China do not apply weak environmental regulations to attract inward FDI. Furthermore, China’s government in attracting inward FDI should strengthen environmental policy. The finding of population–emissions linkage effect is ranked fourth, implying that population size does not directly affect CO₂ emissions, even though China has the world’s largest population, and Chinese people are very economical use of energy-related products. Overall, the energy conservation, improving efficiency, managing demand, and financial development, which aim at curtailing waste of energy, reducing both energy consumption and emissions, and without loss of the country’s competitiveness, can be adopted for developing economies. The GRA is one of the best way to use a lower data to build a dynamic analysis model.

Keywords: Grey relational analysis, foreign direct investment, CO2 emissions, China.

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