Search results for: logistic model tree
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7751

Search results for: logistic model tree

6161 Analysis of Driving Conditions and Preferred Media on Diversion

Authors: Yoon-Hyuk Choi

Abstract:

Studies on the distribution of traffic demands have been proceeding by providing traffic information for reducing greenhouse gases and reinforcing the road's competitiveness in the transport section, however, since it is preferentially required the extensive studies on the driver's behavior changing routes and its influence factors, this study has been developed a discriminant model for changing routes considering driving conditions including traffic conditions of roads and driver's preferences for information media. It is divided into three groups depending on driving conditions in group classification with the CART analysis, which is statistically meaningful. And the extent that driving conditions and preferred media affect a route change is examined through a discriminant analysis, and it is developed a discriminant model equation to predict a route change. As a result of building the discriminant model equation, it is shown that driving conditions affect a route change much more, the entire discriminant hit ratio is derived as 64.2%, and this discriminant equation shows high discriminant ability more than a certain degree.

Keywords: CART analysis, Diversion, Discriminant model, Driving conditions, and preferred media

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6160 Artificial Neural Network-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Mymensingh Area of Bangladesh

Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

Abstract:

Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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6159 Agent/Group/Role Organizational Model to Simulate an Industrial Control System

Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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6158 CSTR Control by Using Model Reference Adaptive Control and PSO

Authors: Neha Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative analysis of continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) control based on adaptive control and optimal tuning of PID control based on particle swarm optimization. In the design of adaptive control, Model reference adaptive control (MRAC) scheme is used, in which the adaptation law have been developed by MIT rule & Lyapunov’s rule. In PSO control parameters of PID controller is tuned by using the concept of particle swarm optimization to get optimized operating point for minimum integral square error (ISE) condition. The results show the adjustment of PID parameters converting into the optimal operating point and the good control response can be obtained by the PSO technique.

Keywords: Model reference adaptive control (MRAC), optimal control, particle swarm optimization (PSO).

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6157 Model-free Prediction based on Tracking Theory and Newton Form of Polynomial

Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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6156 CFD Simulation of SO2 Removal from Gas Mixtures using Ceramic Membranes

Authors: Azam Marjani, Saeed Shirazian

Abstract:

This work deals with modeling and simulation of SO2 removal in a ceramic membrane by means of FEM. A mass transfer model was developed to predict the performance of SO2 absorption in a chemical solvent. The model was based on solving conservation equations for gas component in the membrane. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) of mass and momentum were used to solve the model equations. The simulations aimed to obtain the distribution of gas concentration in the absorption process. The effect of the operating parameters on the efficiency of the ceramic membrane was evaluated. The modeling findings showed that the gas phase velocity has significant effect on the removal of gas whereas the liquid phase does not affect the SO2 removal significantly. It is also indicated that the main mass transfer resistance is placed in the membrane and gas phase because of high tortuosity of the ceramic membrane.

Keywords: Gas separation, finite element, ceramic, sulphur dioxide, simulation.

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6155 Dispenser Longitudinal Movement ControlDesign Based on Auto - Disturbances –Rejection - Controller

Authors: Qiaozhen Song

Abstract:

Based on the feature of model disturbances and uncertainty being compensated dynamically in auto – disturbances-rejection-controller (ADRC), a new method using ADRC is proposed for the decoupling control of dispenser longitudinal movement in big flight envelope. Developed from nonlinear model directly, ADRC is especially suitable for dynamic model that has big disturbances. Furthermore, without changing the structure and parameters of the controller in big flight envelope, this scheme can simplify the design of flight control system. The simulation results in big flight envelope show that the system achieves high dynamic performance, steady state performance and the controller has strong robustness.

Keywords: ADRC, ESO, nonlinear system

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6154 Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Maritime Transport Gross Domestic Product on Nigeria’s Economy

Authors: K. P. Oyeduntan, K. Oshinubi

Abstract:

Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the sparkplug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria.

Keywords: Economy, GDP, maritime transport, port, regression.

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6153 A Domain Specific Modeling Language Semantic Model for Artefact Orientation

Authors: Bunakiye R. Japheth, Ogude U. Cyril

Abstract:

Since the process of transforming user requirements to modeling constructs are not very well supported by domain-specific frameworks, it became necessary to integrate domain requirements with the specific architectures to achieve an integrated customizable solutions space via artifact orientation. Domain-specific modeling language specifications of model-driven engineering technologies focus more on requirements within a particular domain, which can be tailored to aid the domain expert in expressing domain concepts effectively. Modeling processes through domain-specific language formalisms are highly volatile due to dependencies on domain concepts or used process models. A capable solution is given by artifact orientation that stresses on the results rather than expressing a strict dependence on complicated platforms for model creation and development. Based on this premise, domain-specific methods for producing artifacts without having to take into account the complexity and variability of platforms for model definitions can be integrated to support customizable development. In this paper, we discuss methods for the integration capabilities and necessities within a common structure and semantics that contribute a metamodel for artifact-orientation, which leads to a reusable software layer with concrete syntax capable of determining design intents from domain expert. These concepts forming the language formalism are established from models explained within the oil and gas pipelines industry.

Keywords: Control process, metrics of engineering, structured abstraction, semantic model.

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6152 A Numerical Model to Study the Rapid Buffering Approximation near an Open Ca2+ Channel for an Unsteady State Case

Authors: Leena Sharma

Abstract:

Chemical reaction and diffusion are important phenomena in quantitative neurobiology and biophysics. The knowledge of the dynamics of calcium Ca2+ is very important in cellular physiology because Ca2+ binds to many proteins and regulates their activity and interactions Calcium waves propagate inside cells due to a regenerative mechanism known as calcium-induced calcium release. Buffer-mediated calcium diffusion in the cytosol plays a crucial role in the process. A mathematical model has been developed for calcium waves by assuming the buffers are in equilibrium with calcium i.e., the rapid buffering approximation for a one dimensional unsteady state case. This model incorporates important physical and physiological parameters like dissociation rate, diffusion rate, total buffer concentration and influx. The finite difference method has been employed to predict [Ca2+] and buffer concentration time course regardless of the calcium influx. The comparative studies of the effect of the rapid buffered diffusion and kinetic parameters of the model on the concentration time course have been performed.

Keywords: Calcium Profile, Rapid Buffering Approximation, Influx, Dissociation rate constant.

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6151 Three-Dimensional Numerical Investigation for Reinforced Concrete Slabs with Opening

Authors: Abdelrahman Elsehsah, Hany Madkour, Khalid Farah

Abstract:

This article presents a 3-D modified non-linear elastic model in the strain space. The Helmholtz free energy function is introduced with the existence of a dissipation potential surface in the space of thermodynamic conjugate forces. The constitutive equation and the damage evolution were derived as well. The modified damage has been examined to model the nonlinear behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) slabs with an opening. A parametric study with RC was carried out to investigate the impact of different factors on the behavior of RC slabs. These factors are the opening area, the opening shape, the place of opening, and the thickness of the slabs. And the numerical results have been compared with the experimental data from literature. Finally, the model showed its ability to be applied to the structural analysis of RC slabs.

Keywords: 3-D numerical analysis, damage mechanics, RC slab with opening.

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6150 Intrusion Detection based on Distance Combination

Authors: Joffroy Beauquier, Yongjie Hu

Abstract:

The intrusion detection problem has been frequently studied, but intrusion detection methods are often based on a single point of view, which always limits the results. In this paper, we introduce a new intrusion detection model based on the combination of different current methods. First we use a notion of distance to unify the different methods. Second we combine these methods using the Pearson correlation coefficients, which measure the relationship between two methods, and we obtain a combined distance. If the combined distance is greater than a predetermined threshold, an intrusion is detected. We have implemented and tested the combination model with two different public data sets: the data set of masquerade detection collected by Schonlau & al., and the data set of program behaviors from the University of New Mexico. The results of the experiments prove that the combination model has better performances.

Keywords: Intrusion detection, combination, distance, Pearson correlation coefficients.

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6149 Influence of a Company’s Dynamic Capabilities on Its Innovation Capabilities

Authors: Lovorka Galetic, Zeljko Vukelic

Abstract:

The advanced concepts of strategic and innovation management in the sphere of company dynamic and innovation capabilities, and achieving their mutual alignment and a synergy effect, are important elements in business today. This paper analyses the theory and empirically investigates the influence of a company’s dynamic capabilities on its innovation capabilities. A new multidimensional model of dynamic capabilities is presented, consisting of five factors appropriate to real time requirements, while innovation capabilities are considered pursuant to the official OECD and Eurostat standards. After examination of dynamic and innovation capabilities indicated their theoretical links, the empirical study testing the model and examining the influence of a company’s dynamic capabilities on its innovation capabilities showed significant results. In the study, a research model was posed to relate company dynamic and innovation capabilities. One side of the model features the variables that are the determinants of dynamic capabilities defined through their factors, while the other side features the determinants of innovation capabilities pursuant to the official standards. With regard to the research model, five hypotheses were set. The study was performed in late 2014 on a representative sample of large and very large Croatian enterprises with a minimum of 250 employees. The research instrument was a questionnaire administered to company top management. For both variables, the position of the company was tested in comparison to industry competitors, on a fivepoint scale. In order to test the hypotheses, correlation tests were performed to determine whether there is a correlation between each individual factor of company dynamic capabilities with the existence of its innovation capabilities, in line with the research model. The results indicate a strong correlation between a company’s possession of dynamic capabilities in terms of their factors, due to the new multi-dimensional model presented in this paper, with its possession of innovation capabilities. Based on the results, all five hypotheses were accepted. Ultimately, it was concluded that there is a strong association between the dynamic and innovation capabilities of a company. 

Keywords: Dynamic capabilities, innovation capabilities, competitive advantage, business results.

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6148 Mathematical Modeling of Drip Emitter Discharge of Trapezoidal Labyrinth Channel

Authors: N. Philipova

Abstract:

The influence of the geometric parameters of trapezoidal labyrinth channel on the emitter discharge is investigated in this work. The impact of the dentate angle, the dentate spacing, and the dentate height are studied among the geometric parameters of the labyrinth channel. Numerical simulations of the water flow movement are performed according to central cubic composite design using Commercial codes GAMBIT and FLUENT. Inlet pressure of the dripper is set up to be 1 bar. The objective of this paper is to derive a mathematical model of the emitter discharge depending on the dentate angle, the dentate spacing, the dentate height of the labyrinth channel. As a result, the obtained mathematical model is a second-order polynomial reporting 2-way interactions among the geometric parameters. The dentate spacing has the most important and positive influence on the emitter discharge, followed by the simultaneous impact of the dentate spacing and the dentate height. The dentate angle in the observed interval has no significant effect on the emitter discharge. The obtained model can be used as a basis for a future emitter design.

Keywords: Drip irrigation, labyrinth channel hydrodynamics, numerical simulations, Reynolds stress model.

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6147 Analysis of Combustion, Performance and Emission Characteristics of Turbocharged LHR Extended Expansion DI Diesel Engine

Authors: Mohd.F.Shabir, P. Tamilporai, B. Rajendra Prasath

Abstract:

The fundamental aim of extended expansion concept is to achieve higher work done which in turn leads to higher thermal efficiency. This concept is compatible with the application of turbocharger and LHR engine. The Low Heat Rejection engine was developed by coating the piston crown, cylinder head inside with valves and cylinder liner with partially stabilized zirconia coating of 0.5 mm thickness. Extended expansion in diesel engines is termed as Miller cycle in which the expansion ratio is increased by reducing the compression ratio by modifying the inlet cam for late inlet valve closing. The specific fuel consumption reduces to an appreciable level and the thermal efficiency of the extended expansion turbocharged LHR engine is improved. In this work, a thermodynamic model was formulated and developed to simulate the LHR based extended expansion turbocharged direct injection diesel engine. It includes a gas flow model, a heat transfer model, and a two zone combustion model. Gas exchange model is modified by incorporating the Miller cycle, by delaying inlet valve closing timing which had resulted in considerable improvement in thermal efficiency of turbocharged LHR engines. The heat transfer model, calculates the convective and radiative heat transfer between the gas and wall by taking into account of the combustion chamber surface temperature swings. Using the two-zone combustion model, the combustion parameters and the chemical equilibrium compositions were determined. The chemical equilibrium compositions were used to calculate the Nitric oxide formation rate by assuming a modified Zeldovich mechanism. The accuracy of this model is scrutinized against actual test results from the engine. The factors which affect thermal efficiency and exhaust emissions were deduced and their influences were discussed. In the final analysis it is seen that there is an excellent agreement in all of these evaluations.

Keywords: Low Heat Rejection, Miller cycle.

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6146 Implementation of Generalized Plasticity in Load-Deformation Behavior of Foundation with Emphasis on Localization Problem

Authors: A. H. Akhaveissy

Abstract:

Nonlinear finite element method with eight noded isoparametric quadrilateral element is used for prediction of loaddeformation behavior including bearing capacity of foundations. Modified generalized plasticity model with non-associated flow rule is applied for analysis of soil-footing system. Also Von Mises and Tresca criterions are used for simulation of soil behavior. Modified generalized plasticity model is able to simulate load-deformation including softening behavior. Localization phenomena are considered by different meshes. Localization phenomena have not been seen in the examples. Predictions by modified generalized plasticity model show good agreement with laboratory data and theoretical prediction in comparison the other models.

Keywords: Localization phenomena, Generalized plasticity, Non-associated Flow Rule

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6145 Using SNAP and RADTRAD to Establish the Analysis Model for Maanshan PWR Plant

Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih, S. W. Chen, J. H. Yang, Y. Chiang

Abstract:

In this study, we focus on the establishment of the analysis model for Maanshan PWR nuclear power plant (NPP) by using RADTRAD and SNAP codes with the FSAR, manuals, and other data. In order to evaluate the cumulative dose at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) and Low Population Zone (LPZ) outer boundary, Maanshan NPP RADTRAD/SNAP model was used to perform the analysis of the DBA LOCA case. The analysis results of RADTRAD were similar to FSAR data. These analysis results were lower than the failure criteria of 10 CFR 100.11 (a total radiation dose to the whole body, 250 mSv; a total radiation dose to the thyroid from iodine exposure, 3000 mSv).

Keywords: RADionuclide, transport, removal, and dose estimation, RADTRAD, symbolic nuclear analysis package, SNAP, dose, PWR.

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6144 Nonlinear Controller for Fuzzy Model of Double Inverted Pendulums

Authors: I. Zamani, M. H. Zarif

Abstract:

In this paper a method for designing of nonlinear controller for a fuzzy model of Double Inverted Pendulum is proposed. This system can be considered as a fuzzy large-scale system that includes offset terms and disturbance in each subsystem. Offset terms are deterministic and disturbances are satisfied a matching condition that is mentioned in the paper. Based on Lyapunov theorem, a nonlinear controller is designed for this fuzzy system (as a model reference base) which is simple in computation and guarantees stability. This idea can be used for other fuzzy large- scale systems that include more subsystems Finally, the results are shown.

Keywords: Controller, Fuzzy Double Inverted Pendulums, Fuzzy Large-Scale Systems, Lyapunov Stability.

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6143 Parametric Vibrations of Periodic Shells

Authors: B. Tomczyk, R. Mania

Abstract:

Thin linear-elastic cylindrical circular shells having a micro-periodic structure along two directions tangent to the shell midsurface (biperiodic shells) are object of considerations. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we formulate an averaged nonasymptotic model for the analysis of parametric vibrations or dynamical stability of periodic shells under consideration, which has constant coefficients and takes into account the effect of a cell size on the overall shell behavior (a length-scale effect). This model is derived employing the tolerance modeling procedure. Second we apply the obtained model to derivation of frequency equation being a starting point in the analysis of parametric vibrations. The effect of the microstructure length oh this frequency equation is discussed.

Keywords: Micro-periodic shells, mathematical modeling, length-scale effect, parametric vibrations

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6142 Comparison of Two-Phase Critical Flow Models for Estimation of Leak Flow Rate through Cracks

Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

Abstract:

The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: Crack, critical flow, leak, roughness.

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6141 A Comparative Study of Malware Detection Techniques Using Machine Learning Methods

Authors: Cristina Vatamanu, Doina Cosovan, Dragoş Gavriluţ, Henri Luchian

Abstract:

In the past few years, the amount of malicious software increased exponentially and, therefore, machine learning algorithms became instrumental in identifying clean and malware files through (semi)-automated classification. When working with very large datasets, the major challenge is to reach both a very high malware detection rate and a very low false positive rate. Another challenge is to minimize the time needed for the machine learning algorithm to do so. This paper presents a comparative study between different machine learning techniques such as linear classifiers, ensembles, decision trees or various hybrids thereof. The training dataset consists of approximately 2 million clean files and 200.000 infected files, which is a realistic quantitative mixture. The paper investigates the above mentioned methods with respect to both their performance (detection rate and false positive rate) and their practicability.

Keywords: Detection Rate, False Positives, Perceptron, One Side Class, Ensembles, Decision Tree, Hybrid methods, Feature Selection.

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6140 Evaluating Hourly Sulphur Dioxide and Ground Ozone Simulated with the Air Quality Model in Lima, Peru

Authors: Odón R. Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Elizabeth Ayma-Choque, Alan Llacza

Abstract:

Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and surface-ozone (O₃) concentrations are associated with diseases. The objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the air-quality Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km. For this purpose, the measurements of the hourly SO₂ and O₃ concentrations available in three air quality monitoring stations in Lima, Peru were used for the purpose of validating the simulations of the SO₂ and O₃ concentrations obtained with the WRF-Chem model in February 2018. For the quantitative evaluation of the simulations of these gases, statistical techniques were implemented, such as the average of the simulations; the average of the measurements; the Mean Bias (MeB); the Mean Error (MeE); and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of these statistical metrics indicated that the simulated SO₂ and O₃ values over-predicted the SO₂ and O₃ measurements. For the SO₂ concentration, the MeB values varied from 0.58 to 26.35 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 8.75 to 26.5 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 13.3 to 31.79 µg/m³; while for O₃ concentrations the statistical values of the MeB varied from 37.52 to 56.29 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 37.54 to 56.70 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 43.05 to 69.56 µg/m³.

Keywords: Ground-ozone, Lima, Sulphur dioxide, WRF-Chem.

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6139 Statistical Analysis of Stresses in Rigid Pavement

Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Rudolf Hela

Abstract:

Complex statistical analysis of stresses in concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangement of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional subgrade layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used for statistical analysis. As results, the estimates of basic statistics of the principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the slabs are obtained.

Keywords: concrete, FEM, pavement, simulation.

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6138 Predicting Bankruptcy using Tabu Search in the Mauritian Context

Authors: J. Cheeneebash, K. B. Lallmamode, A. Gopaul

Abstract:

Throughout this paper, a relatively new technique, the Tabu search variable selection model, is elaborated showing how it can be efficiently applied within the financial world whenever researchers come across the selection of a subset of variables from a whole set of descriptive variables under analysis. In the field of financial prediction, researchers often have to select a subset of variables from a larger set to solve different type of problems such as corporate bankruptcy prediction, personal bankruptcy prediction, mortgage, credit scoring and the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM). Consequently, to demonstrate how the method operates and to illustrate its usefulness as well as its superiority compared to other commonly used methods, the Tabu search algorithm for variable selection is compared to two main alternative search procedures namely, the stepwise regression and the maximum R 2 improvement method. The Tabu search is then implemented in finance; where it attempts to predict corporate bankruptcy by selecting the most appropriate financial ratios and thus creating its own prediction score equation. In comparison to other methods, mostly the Altman Z-Score model, the Tabu search model produces a higher success rate in predicting correctly the failure of firms or the continuous running of existing entities.

Keywords: Predicting Bankruptcy, Tabu Search

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6137 Towards a Systematic Planning of Standardization Projects in Plant Engineering

Authors: M. Amberg, M. Gepp, S. Horn

Abstract:

In today-s economy plant engineering faces many challenges. For instance the intensifying competition in this business is leading to cost competition and needs for a shorter time-to-market. To remain competitive companies need to make their businesses more profitable by implementing improvement programs such as standardization projects. But they have difficulties to tap their full economic potential for various reasons. One of them is non-holistic planning and implementation of standardization projects. This paper describes a new conceptual framework - the layer-model. The model combines and expands existing proven approaches in order to improve design, implementation and management of standardization projects. Based on a holistic approach it helps to systematically analyze the effects of standardization projects on different business layers and enables companies to better seize the opportunities offered by standardization.

Keywords: layer model, plant engineering, standardization.

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6136 Pore Model Prediction of CH4 Separation from HS Using PTMSP and γ -Alumina Membranes

Authors: H. Mukhtar, N. M. Noor, R. Nasir, D. F. Mohshim

Abstract:

The main aim of this work is to develop a model of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) separation from natural gas by using membrane separation technology. The model is developed by incorporating three diffusion mechanisms which are Knudsen, viscous and surface diffusion towards membrane selectivity and permeability. The findings from the simulation result shows that the permeability of the gas is dependent toward the pore size of the membrane, operating pressure, operating temperature as well as feed composition. The permeability of methane has the highest value for Poly (1-trimethylsilyl-1-propyne ) PTMSP membrane at pore size of 0.1nm and decreasing toward a minimum peak at pore range 1 to 1.5 nm as pore size increased before it increase again for pore size is greater than 1.5 nm. On the other hand, the permeability of hydrogen sulfide is found to increase almost proportionally with the increase of membrane pore size. Generally, the increase of pressure will increase the permeability of gas since more driving force is provided to the system while increasing of temperature would decrease the permeability due to the surface diffusion drop off effect. A corroboration of the simulation result also showed a good agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: Hydrogen Sulfide, Methane, Inorganic Membrane, Organic Membrane, Pore Model

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6135 Enhanced Performance for Support Vector Machines as Multiclass Classifiers in Steel Surface Defect Detection

Authors: Ehsan Amid, Sina Rezaei Aghdam, Hamidreza Amindavar

Abstract:

Steel surface defect detection is essentially one of pattern recognition problems. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are known as one of the most proper classifiers in this application. In this paper, we introduce a more accurate classification method by using SVMs as our final classifier of the inspection system. In this scheme, multiclass classification task is performed based on the "one-againstone" method and different kernels are utilized for each pair of the classes in multiclass classification of the different defects. In the proposed system, a decision tree is employed in the first stage for two-class classification of the steel surfaces to "defect" and "non-defect", in order to decrease the time complexity. Based on the experimental results, generated from over one thousand images, the proposed multiclass classification scheme is more accurate than the conventional methods and the overall system yields a sufficient performance which can meet the requirements in steel manufacturing.

Keywords: Steel Surface Defect Detection, Support Vector Machines, Kernel Methods.

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6134 Effective Design Parameters on the End Effect in Single-Sided Linear Induction Motors

Authors: A. Zare Bazghaleh, M. R. Naghashan, H. Mahmoudimanesh, M. R. Meshkatoddini

Abstract:

Linear induction motors are used in various industries but they have some specific phenomena which are the causes for some problems. The most important phenomenon is called end effect. End effect decreases efficiency, power factor and output force and unbalances the phase currents. This phenomenon is more important in medium and high speeds machines. In this paper a factor, EEF , is obtained by an accurate equivalent circuit model, to determine the end effect intensity. In this way, all of effective design parameters on end effect is described. Accuracy of this equivalent circuit model is evaluated by two dimensional finite-element analysis using ANSYS. The results show the accuracy of the equivalent circuit model.

Keywords: Linear induction motor, end effect, equivalent circuitmodel, finite-element method.

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6133 Developing a Statistical Model for Electromagnetic Environment for Mobile Wireless Networks

Authors: C. Temaneh Nyah

Abstract:

The analysis of electromagnetic environment using deterministic mathematical models is characterized by the impossibility of analyzing a large number of interacting network stations with a priori unknown parameters, and this is characteristic, for example, of mobile wireless communication networks. One of the tasks of the tools used in designing, planning and optimization of mobile wireless network is to carry out simulation of electromagnetic environment based on mathematical modelling methods, including computer experiment, and to estimate its effect on radio communication devices. This paper proposes the development of a statistical model of electromagnetic environment of a mobile wireless communication network by describing the parameters and factors affecting it including the propagation channel and their statistical models.

Keywords: Electromagnetic Environment, Statistical model, Wireless communication network.

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6132 Analysis of Users’ Behavior on Book Loan Log Based On Association Rule Mining

Authors: Kanyarat Bussaban, Kunyanuth Kularbphettong

Abstract:

This research aims to create a model for analysis of student behavior using Library resources based on data mining technique in case of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The model was created under association rules, Apriori algorithm. The results were found 14 rules and the rules were tested with testing data set and it showed that the ability of classify data was 79.24percent and the MSE was 22.91. The results showed that the user’s behavior model by using association rule technique can use to manage the library resources.

Keywords: Behavior, data mining technique, Apriori algorithm.

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