Search results for: prediction error bias correction.

Authors: S. Ghafoori, A. Al-Harbi, B. Al-Ajmi, A. Al-Shaalan, A. Al-Ajmi, M. Ali Juma

Abstract:

Seismic methods play an important role in the exploration for hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, the success of the method depends strongly on the reliability of the measured or predicted information regarding the velocity of sound in the media. Speed of sound has been used to study the thermodynamic properties of fluids. In this study, experimental data are reported and analyzed on the speed of sound in toluene and octane binary mixture. Three-factor three-level Box-Benhkam design is used to determine the significance of each factor, the synergetic effects of the factors, and the most significant factors on speed of sound. The developed mathematical model and statistical analysis provided a critical analysis of the simultaneous interactive effects of the independent variables indicating that the developed quadratic models were highly accurate and predictive.

Keywords: Experimental design, octane, speed of sound, toluene.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Vahid Rostami, Omid sojodishijani , Saeed Ebrahimijam, Ali MohsenizanjaniNejad

Abstract:

This paper is described one of the intelligent control method in Autonomous systems, which is called fuzzy control to correct the three wheel omnidirectional robot movement while it make mistake to catch the target. Fuzzy logic is especially advantageous for problems that can not be easily represented by mathematical modeling because data is either unavailable, incomplete or the process is too complex. Such systems can be easily up grated by adding new rules to improve performance or add new features. In many cases , fuzzy control can be used to improve existing traditional controller systems by adding an extra layer of intelligence to the current control method. The fuzzy controller designed here is more accurate and flexible than the traditional controllers. The project is done at MRL middle size soccer robot team.

Keywords: Robocup , omnidirectional , fuzzy control, soccer robot , intelligent control.

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Authors: S. Farzi

Abstract:

Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to advanced techniques of system modeling. PNN(polynomial neural network) is a GMDH-type algorithm (Group Method of Data Handling) which is one of the useful method for modeling nonlinear systems but PNN performance depends strongly on the number of input variables and the order of polynomial which are determined by trial and error. In this paper, we introduce GPNN (genetic polynomial neural network) to improve the performance of PNN. GPNN determines the number of input variables and the order of all neurons with GA (genetic algorithm). We use GA to search between all possible values for the number of input variables and the order of polynomial. GPNN performance is obtained by two nonlinear systems. the quadratic equation and the time series Dow Jones stock index are two case studies for obtaining the GPNN performance.

Keywords: GMDH, GPNN, GA, PNN.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Paolo Cioppa, Ernesto Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow field around a thin flat plate of infinite span inclined at 90° to a fluid stream of infinite extent. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a bluff body invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a two-dimensional vertical flat plate.

Keywords: CFD, vertical flat plate, aerodynamic force

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Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

Abstract:

Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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Authors: Mohd Sazli Saad, Hishamuddin Jamaluddin, Intan Zaurah Mat Darus

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an active vibration control using direct adaptive controller to suppress the vibration of a flexible beam system. The controller is realized based on linear parametric form. Differential evolution optimisation algorithm is used to optimize the controller using single objective function by minimizing the mean square error of the observed vibration signal. Furthermore, an alternative approach is developed to systematically search for the best controller model structure together with it parameter values. The performance of the control scheme is presented and analysed in both time and frequency domain. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme is able to suppress the unwanted vibration effectively.

Keywords: flexible beam, finite difference method, active vibration control, differential evolution, direct adaptive controller

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Authors: Mohammed Boutalline, Imad Badi, Belaid Bouikhalene, Said Safi

Abstract:

In this paper we describe the Levenvberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm for identification and equalization of CDMA signals received by an antenna array in communication channels. The synthesis explains the digital separation and equalization of signals after propagation through multipath generating intersymbol interference (ISI). Exploiting discrete data transmitted and three diversities induced at the reception, the problem can be composed by the Block Component Decomposition (BCD) of a tensor of order 3 which is a new tensor decomposition generalizing the PARAFAC decomposition. We optimize the BCD decomposition by Levenvberg-Marquardt method gives encouraging results compared to classical alternating least squares algorithm (ALS). In the equalization part, we use the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) to perform the presented method. The simulation results using the LM algorithm are important.

Keywords: Identification and equalization, communication channel, Levenvberg-Marquardt, tensor decomposition

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Authors: E. Keramaris, V. Kanakoudis

Abstract:

In this study the water flow in an open channel over a sharp-crested weir is investigated experimentally. For this reason a series of laboratory experiments were performed in an open channel with a sharp-crested weir. The maximum head expected over the weir, the total upstream water height and the downstream water height of the impact in the constant bed of the open channel were measured. The discharge was measured using a tank put right after the open channel. In addition, the discharge and the upstream velocity were also calculated using already known equations. The main finding is that the relative error percentage for the majority of the experimental measurements is ± 4%, meaning that the calculation of the discharge with a sharp-crested weir gives very good results compared to the numerical results from known equations.

Keywords: Sharp-crested weir, weir height, flow measurement, open channel flow.

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Authors: Shaban Pazi, Chris Chatwin, Rupert Young, Philip Birch

Abstract:

Internet infrastructures in most places of the world have been supported by the advancement of optical fiber technology, most notably wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) system. Optical technology by means of WDM system has revolutionized long distance data transport and has resulted in high data capacity, cost reductions, extremely low bit error rate, and operational simplification of the overall Internet infrastructure. This paper analyses and compares the system impairments, which occur at data transmission rates of 2.5Gb/s and 10 Gb/s per wavelength channel in our proposed optical WDM system for Internet infrastructure in Tanzania. The results show that the data transmission rate of 2.5 Gb/s has minimum system impairments compared with a rate of 10 Gb/s per wavelength channel, and achieves a sufficient system performance to provide a good Internet access service.

Keywords: Internet infrastructure, WDM system, standard single mode fibers, system impairments.

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Authors: A.F. Salarashayeri, M. Siosemarde

Abstract:

Hydraulic conductivity is one parameter important for predicting the movement of water and contaminants dissolved in the water through the soil. The hydraulic conductivity is measured on soil samples in the lab and sometimes tests carried out in the field. The hydraulic conductivity has been related to soil particle diameter by a number of investigators. In this study, 25 set of soil samples with sand texture. The results show approximately success in predicting hydraulic conductivity from particle diameters data. The following relationship obtained from multiple linear regressions on data (R2 = 0.52): Where d10, d50 and d60, are the soil particle diameter (mm) that 10%, 50% and 60% of all soil particles are finer (smaller) by weight and Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity is expressed in m/day. The results of regression analysis showed that d10 play a more significant role with respect to Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity (m/day), and has been named as the effective parameter in Ks calculation.

Keywords: hydraulic conductivity, particle diameter, particle-size distribution and soil

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Authors: Md. Shafiqul Islam, Abdullah Khan, Sharon Kao-Walter, Li Jian

Abstract:

Shear testing is one of the most complex testing areas where available methods and specimen geometries are different from each other. Therefore, a modified shear test specimen (MSTS) combining the simple uniaxial test with a zone of interest (ZOI) is tested which gives almost the pure shear. In this study, material parameters of polypropylene (PP) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) are first measured by tensile tests with a dogbone shaped specimen. These parameters are then used as an input for the finite element analysis. Secondly, a specially designed specimen (MSTS) is used to perform the shear stress tests in a tensile testing machine to get the results in terms of forces and extension, crack initiation etc. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) is also performed on the shear fracture surface to find material behavior. These experiments are then simulated by finite element method and compared with the experimental results in order to confirm the simulation model. Shear stress state is inspected to find the usability of the proposed shear specimen. Finally, a geometry correction factor can be established for these two materials in this specific loading and geometry with notch using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM). By these results, strain energy of shear failure and stress intensity factor (SIF) of shear of these two polymers are discussed in the special application of the screw cap opening of the medical or food packages with a temper evidence safety solution.

Keywords: Shear test specimen, Stress intensity factor, Finite Element simulation, Scanning electron microscopy, Screw cap opening.

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Authors: Saeid Norouzi, Ali Shams, Hassan Farhangi, Alireza Darvish

Abstract:

Hot tear cracking and residual stress are two different consequences of thermal stress both of which can be considered as casting problem. The purpose of the present study is simulation of the effect of casting shape characteristic on hot tearing and residual stress. This study shows that the temperature range for simulation of hot tearing and residual stress are different. In this study, in order to study the development of thermal stress and to predict the hot tearing and residual stress of shaped casting, MAGMASOFT simulation program was used. The strategy of this research was the prediction of hot tear location using pinpointing hot spot and thermal stress concentration zones. The results shows that existing of stress concentration zone increases the hot tearing probability and consequently reduces the amount of remaining residual stress in casting parts.

Keywords: Hot tearing, residual stress, simulation, investment casting.

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Authors: Hyun-Jee Yang, Bit-Na Kwon, Yong-Jun Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In the cooperative transmission scheme, both the cellular system and broadcasting system are composed. Two cellular base stations (CBSs) communicating with a user in the cell edge use cooperative transmission scheme in the conventional scheme. In the case that the distance between two CBSs and the user is distant, the conventional scheme does not guarantee the quality of the communication because the channel condition is bad. Therefore, if the distance between CBSs and a user is distant, the performance of the conventional scheme is decreased. Also, the bad channel condition has bad effects on the performance. The proposed scheme uses two relays to communicate well with CBSs when the channel condition between CBSs and the user is poor. Using the relay in the high attenuation environment can obtain both advantages of the high bit error rate (BER) and throughput performance.

Keywords: Cooperative communications, diversity gain, OFDM, interworking system.

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Authors: Yuanqing Li, Changyi Lei, Zhaopeng Xue, Zhuo Zheng, Yanbo Long

Abstract:

In agricultural production and breeding, implementing automatic picking robot in orchard farming to reduce human labour and error is challenging. The core function of it is automatic identification based on machine vision. This paper focuses on apple detection and counting in orchards and implements several deep learning methods. Extensive datasets are used and a semi-automatic annotation method is proposed. The proposed deep learning models are in state-of-the-art YOLO family. In view of the essence of the models with various backbones, a multi-dimensional comparison in details is made in terms of counting accuracy, mAP and model memory, laying the foundation for realising automatic precision agriculture.

Keywords: Agricultural object detection, Deep learning, machine vision, YOLO family.

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Authors: Said Elkassimi, Said Safi, B. Manaut

Abstract:

In recent years, multi-antenna techniques are being considered as a potential solution to increase the flow of future wireless communication systems. The objective of this article is to study the emission and reception system MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output), and present the different reception decoding techniques. First we will present the least complex technical, linear receivers such as the zero forcing equalizer (ZF) and minimum mean squared error (MMSE). Then a nonlinear technique called ordered successive cancellation of interferences (OSIC) and the optimal detector based on the maximum likelihood criterion (ML), finally, we simulate the associated decoding algorithms for MIMO system such as ZF, MMSE, OSIC and ML, thus a comparison of performance of these algorithms in MIMO context.

Keywords: Multiple Input Multiple Outputs (MIMO), ZF, MMSE, Ordered Interference Successive Cancellation (OSIC), ML, Interference Successive Cancellation (SIC).

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Authors: S.F. Faisal, A.H.M.A. Rahim, J.M. Bakhashwain

Abstract:

Design of a fixed parameter robust STATCOM controller for a multi-machine power system through an H-? based loop-shaping procedure is presented. The trial and error part of the graphical loop-shaping procedure has been eliminated by embedding a particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique in the design loop. Robust controllers were designed considering the detailed dynamics of the multi-machine system and results were compared with reduced order models. The robust strategy employing loop-shaping and PSO algorithms was observed to provide very good damping profile for a wide range of operation and for various disturbance conditions. 

Keywords: STATCOM, Robust control, Power system damping, Particle Swarm Optimization, Loop-shaping.

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Authors: Wahiba Mohguen, Raïs El’hadi Bekka

Abstract:

This paper presents a denoising method called EMD-Custom that was based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and the modified Customized Thresholding Function (Custom) algorithms. EMD was applied to decompose adaptively a noisy signal into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Then, all the noisy IMFs got threshold by applying the presented thresholding function to suppress noise and to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR). The method was tested on simulated data and real ECG signal, and the results were compared to the EMD-Based signal denoising methods using the soft and hard thresholding. The results showed the superior performance of the proposed EMD-Custom denoising over the traditional approach. The performances were evaluated in terms of SNR in dB, and Mean Square Error (MSE).

Keywords: Customized thresholding, ECG signal, EMD, hard thresholding, Soft-thresholding.

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Authors: Anatoli Torokhti, Phil Howlett

Abstract:

We present a theory for optimal filtering of infinite sets of random signals. There are several new distinctive features of the proposed approach. First, we provide a single optimal filter for processing any signal from a given infinite signal set. Second, the filter is presented in the special form of a sum with p terms where each term is represented as a combination of three operations. Each operation is a special stage of the filtering aimed at facilitating the associated numerical work. Third, an iterative scheme is implemented into the filter structure to provide an improvement in the filter performance at each step of the scheme. The final step of the concerns signal compression and decompression. This step is based on the solution of a new rank-constrained matrix approximation problem. The solution to the matrix problem is described in this paper. A rigorous error analysis is given for the new filter.

Keywords: stochastic signals, optimization problems in signal processing.

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Authors: Shazalina Mat Zin, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, Muhammad Abbas

Abstract:

The generalized wave equation models various problems in sciences and engineering. In this paper, a new three-time level implicit approach based on cubic trigonometric B-spline for the approximate solution of wave equation is developed. The usual finite difference approach is used to discretize the time derivative while cubic trigonometric B-spline is applied as an interpolating function in the space dimension. Von Neumann stability analysis is used to analyze the proposed method. Two problems are discussed to exhibit the feasibility and capability of the method. The absolute errors and maximum error are computed to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results were found to be in good agreement with known solutions and with existing schemes in literature.

Keywords: Collocation method, Cubic trigonometric B-spline, Finite difference, Wave equation.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Anatoli Torokhti, Phil Howlett

Abstract:

A theory for optimal filtering of infinite sets of random signals is presented. There are several new distinctive features of the proposed approach. First, a single optimal filter for processing any signal from a given infinite signal set is provided. Second, the filter is presented in the special form of a sum with p terms where each term is represented as a combination of three operations. Each operation is a special stage of the filtering aimed at facilitating the associated numerical work. Third, an iterative scheme is implemented into the filter structure to provide an improvement in the filter performance at each step of the scheme. The final step of the scheme concerns signal compression and decompression. This step is based on the solution of a new rank-constrained matrix approximation problem. The solution to the matrix problem is described in this paper. A rigorous error analysis is given for the new filter.

Keywords: Optimal filtering, data compression, stochastic signals.

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Authors: Magdy B. Eteiba, Wael Ismael Wahba, Shimaa Barakat

Abstract:

This paper presents a fault identification, classification and fault location estimation method based on Discrete Wavelet Transform and Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for medium voltage cable in the distribution system.

Different faults and locations are simulated by ATP/EMTP, and then certain selected features of the wavelet transformed signals are used as an input for a training process on the ANFIS. Then an accurate fault classifier and locator algorithm was designed, trained and tested using current samples only. The results obtained from ANFIS output were compared with the real output. From the results, it was found that the percentage error between ANFIS output and real output is less than three percent. Hence, it can be concluded that the proposed technique is able to offer high accuracy in both of the fault classification and fault location.

Keywords: ANFIS, Fault location, Underground Cable, Wavelet Transform.

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Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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Authors: Ghada A. Alfattni

Abstract:

Analysing unbalanced datasets is one of the challenges that practitioners in machine learning field face. However, many researches have been carried out to determine the effectiveness of the use of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to address this issue. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the effectiveness of the SMOTE over different models on unbalanced datasets. Three classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbour) were tested with multiple datasets, then the same datasets were oversampled by using SMOTE and applied again to the three models to compare the differences in the performances. Results of experiments show that the highest number of nearest neighbours gives lower values of error rates. 

Keywords: Imbalanced datasets, SMOTE, machine learning, logistic regression, support vector machine, nearest neighbour.

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Authors: Chia-Hau Liu, Tai-Yue Wang

Abstract:

Traditional multivariate control charts assume that measurement from manufacturing processes follows a multivariate normal distribution. However, this assumption may not hold or may be difficult to verify because not all the measurement from manufacturing processes are normal distributed in practice. This study develops a new multivariate control chart for monitoring the processes with non-normal data. We propose a mechanism based on integrating the one-class classification method and the adaptive technique. The adaptive technique is used to improve the sensitivity to small shift on one-class classification in statistical process control. In addition, this design provides an easy way to allocate the value of type I error so it is easier to be implemented. Finally, the simulation study and the real data from industry are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose control charts.

Keywords: Multivariate control chart, statistical process control, one-class classification method.

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Authors: U. C. Amadi, N. A. Udoh

Abstract:

One of the major challenges faced in solving initial and boundary problems is how to find approximate solutions with minimal deviation from the exact solution without so much rigor and complications. The Taylor series method provides a simple way of obtaining an infinite series which converges to the exact solution for initial value problems and this method of solution is somewhat limited for a two point boundary problem since the infinite series has to be truncated to include the boundary conditions. In this paper, the Ying Buzu Shu algorithm is used to solve a two point boundary nonlinear diffusion problem for the fourth and sixth order solution and compare their relative error and rate of convergence to the exact solution.

Keywords: Ying Buzu Shu, nonlinear boundary problem, Taylor series algorithm, infinite series.

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Authors: Mert Turanli, Hakan Temeltas

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an adaptive controller for decentralized coordination problem of multiple non-holonomic agents. The performance of the presented Multi-Agent Bounded Gain Forgetting (BGF) Composite Adaptive controller is compared against the tracking error criterion with a Feedback Linearization controller. By using the method, the sensor nodes move and reconfigure themselves in a coordinated way in response to a sensed environment. The multi-agent coordination is achieved through Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations and Coverage Control. Also, a consensus protocol is used for synchronization of the parameter vectors. The two controllers are given with their Lyapunov stability analysis and their stability is verified with simulation results. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB and ROS environments. Better performance is obtained with BGF Adaptive Controller.

Keywords: Adaptive control, Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations, composite adaptation, coordination.

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Authors: Mahdi Shaneh, Azizollah Taheri

Abstract:

The goal of this project is to design a system to recognition voice commands. Most of voice recognition systems contain two main modules as follow “feature extraction" and “feature matching". In this project, MFCC algorithm is used to simulate feature extraction module. Using this algorithm, the cepstral coefficients are calculated on mel frequency scale. VQ (vector quantization) method will be used for reduction of amount of data to decrease computation time. In the feature matching stage Euclidean distance is applied as similarity criterion. Because of high accuracy of used algorithms, the accuracy of this voice command system is high. Using these algorithms, by at least 5 times repetition for each command, in a single training session, and then twice in each testing session zero error rate in recognition of commands is achieved.

Keywords: MFCC, Vector quantization, Vocal tract, Voicecommand.

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Authors: A. Medjnoun, R. Bahar

Abstract:

The disorders caused by the shrinking-swelling phenomenon are prevalent in arid and semi-arid in the presence of swelling clay. This soil has the characteristic of changing state under the effect of water solicitation (wetting and drying). A set of geotechnical parameters is necessary for the characterization of this soil type, such as state parameters, physical and chemical parameters and mechanical parameters. Some of these tests are very long and some are very expensive, hence the use or methods of predictions. The complexity of this phenomenon and the difficulty of its characterization have prompted researchers to use several identification parameters in the prediction of swelling potential. This document is an analytical and statistical study of geotechnical parameters affecting the potential of swelling clays. This work is performing on a database obtained from investigations swelling Algerian soil. The obtained observations have helped us to understand the soil swelling structure and its behavior.

Keywords: Analysis, estimated model, parameter identification, Swelling of clay.

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