Search results for: uncertainty propagation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 826

Search results for: uncertainty propagation.

706 A new Cellular Automata Model of Cardiac Action Potential Propagation based on Summation of Excited Neighbors

Authors: F. Pourhasanzade, S. H. Sabzpoushan

Abstract:

The heart tissue is an excitable media. A Cellular Automata is a type of model that can be used to model cardiac action potential propagation. One of the advantages of this approach against the methods based on differential equations is its high speed in large scale simulations. Recent cellular automata models are not able to avoid flat edges in the result patterns or have large neighborhoods. In this paper, we present a new model to eliminate flat edges by minimum number of neighbors.

Keywords: Cellular Automata, Action Potential Simulation, Isotropic Pattern.

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705 Dynamic Attribute Dependencies in Relational Attribute Grammars

Authors: K. Barbar, M. Dehayni, A. Awada, M. Smaili

Abstract:

Considering the theory of attribute grammars, we use logical formulas instead of traditional functional semantic rules. Following the decoration of a derivation tree, a suitable algorithm should maintain the consistency of the formulas together with the evaluation of the attributes. This may be a Prolog-like resolution, but this paper examines a somewhat different strategy, based on production specialization, local consistency and propagation: given a derivation tree, it is interactively decorated, i.e. incrementally checked and evaluated. The non-directed dependencies are dynamically directed during attribute evaluation.

Keywords: Input/Output attribute grammars, local consistency, logical programming, propagation, relational attribute grammars.

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704 Forecast Based on an Empirical Probability Function with an Adjusted Error Using Propagation of Error

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Ángel Camacho

Abstract:

This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors.’ The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Empirical Distribution, Propagation of Error.

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703 Aircraft Selection Problem Using Decision Uncertainty Distance in Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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702 The "Project" Approach in Urban: A Response to Uncertainty

Authors: Nedjima Mouhoubi, Souad Sassi Boudemagh

Abstract:

In this paper, we will try to demonstrate the importance of the project approach in the urban to deal with uncertainty, the importance of the involvement of all stakeholders in the urban project process and that the absence of an actor can lead to project failure but also the importance of the urban project management. These points are handled through the following questions: Does the urban adhere to the theory of complexity? Does the project approach bring hope and solution to make urban planning "sustainable"? How converging visions of actors for the same project? Is the management of urban project the solution to support the urban project approach?

Keywords: Strategic planning, project, urban project stakeholders, management.

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701 Liquid Temperature Effect on Sound Propagation in Polymeric Solution with Gas Bubbles

Authors: S. Levitsky

Abstract:

Acoustic properties of polymeric liquids are high sensitive to free gas traces in the form of fine bubbles. Their presence is typical for such liquids because of chemical reactions, small wettability of solid boundaries, trapping of air in technological operations, etc. Liquid temperature influences essentially its rheological properties, which may have an impact on the bubble pulsations and sound propagation in the system. The target of the paper is modeling of the liquid temperature effect on single bubble dynamics and sound dispersion and attenuation in polymeric solution with spherical gas bubbles. The basic sources of attenuation (heat exchange between gas in microbubbles and surrounding liquid, rheological and acoustic losses) are taken into account. It is supposed that in the studied temperature range the interface mass transfer has a minor effect on bubble dynamics. The results of the study indicate that temperature raise yields enhancement of bubble pulsations and increase in sound attenuation in the near-resonance range and may have a strong impact on sound dispersion in the liquid-bubble mixture at frequencies close to the resonance frequency of bubbles.

Keywords: Sound propagation, gas bubbles, temperature effect, polymeric liquid.

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700 A Robust Optimization Method for Service Quality Improvement in Health Care Systems under Budget Uncertainty

Authors: H. Ashrafi, S. Ebrahimi, H. Kamalzadeh

Abstract:

With the development of business competition, it is important for healthcare providers to improve their service qualities. In order to improve service quality of a clinic, four important dimensions are defined: tangibles, responsiveness, empathy, and reliability. Moreover, there are several service stages in hospitals such as financial screening and examination. One of the most challenging limitations for improving service quality is budget which impressively affects the service quality. In this paper, we present an approach to address budget uncertainty and provide guidelines for service resource allocation. In this paper, a service quality improvement approach is proposed which can be adopted to multistage service processes to improve service quality, while controlling the costs. A multi-objective function based on the importance of each area and dimension is defined to link operational variables to service quality dimensions. The results demonstrate that our approach is not ultra-conservative and it shows the actual condition very well. Moreover, it is shown that different strategies can affect the number of employees in different stages.

Keywords: Service quality assessment, healthcare resource allocation, robust optimization, budget uncertainty.

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699 Lower Bound of Time Span Product for a General Class of Signals in Fractional Fourier Domain

Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, Jaydev Sharma

Abstract:

Fractional Fourier Transform is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform which is often symbolized as the rotation in time- frequency plane. Similar to the product of time and frequency span which provides the Uncertainty Principle for the classical Fourier domain, there has not been till date an Uncertainty Principle for the Fractional Fourier domain for a generalized class of finite energy signals. Though the lower bound for the product of time and Fractional Fourier span is derived for the real signals, a tighter lower bound for a general class of signals is of practical importance, especially for the analysis of signals containing chirps. We hence formulate a mathematical derivation that gives the lower bound of time and Fractional Fourier span product. The relation proves to be utmost importance in taking the Fractional Fourier Transform with adaptive time and Fractional span resolutions for a varied class of complex signals.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, uncertainty principle, Fractional Fourier Span, amplitude, phase.

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698 Applications of Entropy Measures in Field of Queuing Theory

Authors: R.K.Tuli

Abstract:

In the present communication, we have studied different variations in the entropy measures in the different states of queueing processes. In case of steady state queuing process, it has been shown that as the arrival rate increases, the uncertainty increases whereas in the case of non-steady birth-death process, it is shown that the uncertainty varies differently. In this pattern, it first increases and attains its maximum value and then with the passage of time, it decreases and attains its minimum value.

Keywords: Entropy, Birth-death process, M/G/1 system, G/M/1system, Steady state, Non-steady state

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697 Very High Speed Data Driven Dynamic NAND Gate at 22nm High K Metal Gate Strained Silicon Technology Node

Authors: Shobha Sharma, Amita Dev

Abstract:

Data driven dynamic logic is the high speed dynamic circuit with low area. The clock of the dynamic circuit is removed and data drives the circuit instead of clock for precharging purpose. This data driven dynamic nand gate is given static forward substrate biasing of Vsupply/2 as well as the substrate bias is connected to the input data, resulting in dynamic substrate bias. The dynamic substrate bias gives the shortest propagation delay with a penalty on the power dissipation. Propagation delay is reduced by 77.8% compared to the normal reverse substrate bias Data driven dynamic nand. Also dynamic substrate biased D3nand’s propagation delay is reduced by 31.26% compared to data driven dynamic nand gate with static forward substrate biasing of Vdd/2. This data driven dynamic nand gate with dynamic body biasing gives us the highest speed with no area penalty and finds its applications where power penalty is acceptable. Also combination of Dynamic and static Forward body bias can be used with reduced propagation delay compared to static forward biased circuit and with comparable increase in an average power. The simulations were done on hspice simulator with 22nm High-k metal gate strained Si technology HP models of Arizona State University, USA.

Keywords: Data driven nand gate, dynamic substrate biasing, nand gate, static substrate biasing.

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696 Ultra-High Frequency Passive Radar Coverage for Cars Detection in Semi-Urban Scenarios

Authors: Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, Jose-Luis Bárcena-Humanes, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores, David Mata-Moya

Abstract:

A study of achievable coverages using passive radar systems in terrestrial traffic monitoring applications is presented. The study includes the estimation of the bistatic radar cross section of different commercial vehicle models that provide challenging low values which make detection really difficult. A semi-urban scenario is selected to evaluate the impact of excess propagation losses generated by an irregular relief. A bistatic passive radar exploiting UHF frequencies radiated by digital video broadcasting transmitters is assumed. A general method of coverage estimation using electromagnetic simulators in combination with estimated car average bistatic radar cross section is applied. In order to reduce the computational cost, hybrid solution is implemented, assuming free space for the target-receiver path but estimating the excess propagation losses for the transmitter-target one.

Keywords: Bistatic radar cross section, passive radar, propagation losses, radar coverage.

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695 Extended Deductive Databases with Uncertain Information

Authors: Daniel Stamate

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach for handling uncertain information in deductive databases using multivalued logics. Uncertainty means that database facts may be assigned logical values other than the conventional ones - true and false. The logical values represent various degrees of truth, which may be combined and propagated by applying the database rules. A corresponding multivalued database semantics is defined. We show that it extends successful conventional semantics as the well-founded semantics, and has a polynomial time data complexity.

Keywords: Reasoning under uncertainty, multivalued logics, deductive databases, logic programs, multivalued semantics.

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694 Influences of Thermal Relaxation Times on Generalized Thermoelastic Longitudinal Waves in Circular Cylinder

Authors: Fatimah A. Alshaikh

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with propagation of thermoelastic longitudinal vibrations of an infinite circular cylinder, in the context of the linear theory of generalized thermoelasticity with two relaxation time parameters (Green and Lindsay theory). Three displacement potential functions are introduced to uncouple the equations of motion. The frequency equation, by using the traction free boundary conditions, is given in the form of a determinant involving Bessel functions. The roots of the frequency equation give the value of the characteristic circular frequency as function of the wave number. These roots, which correspond to various modes, are numerically computed and presented graphically for different values of the thermal relaxation times. It is found that the influences of the thermal relaxation times on the amplitudes of the elastic and thermal waves are remarkable. Also, it is shown in this study that the propagation of thermoelastic longitudinal vibrations based on the generalized thermoelasticity can differ significantly compared with the results under the classical formulation. A comparison of the results for the case with no thermal effects shows well agreement with some of the corresponding earlier results.

Keywords: Wave propagation, longitudinal vibrations, circular cylinder, generalized thermoelasticity, Thermal relaxation times.

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693 A Robust Al-Hawalees Gaming Automation using Minimax and BPNN Decision

Authors: Ahmad Sharieh, R Bremananth

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence based gaming is an interesting topic in the state-of-art technology. This paper presents an automation of a tradition Omani game, called Al-Hawalees. Its related issues are resolved and implemented using artificial intelligence approach. An AI approach called mini-max procedure is incorporated to make a diverse budges of the on-line gaming. If number of moves increase, time complexity will be increased in terms of propositionally. In order to tackle the time and space complexities, we have employed a back propagation neural network (BPNN) to train in off-line to make a decision for resources required to fulfill the automation of the game. We have utilized Leverberg- Marquardt training in order to get the rapid response during the gaming. A set of optimal moves is determined by the on-line back propagation training fashioned with alpha-beta pruning. The results and analyses reveal that the proposed scheme will be easily incorporated in the on-line scenario with one player against the system.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, back propagation gaming, Leverberg-Marquardt, minimax procedure.

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692 The Validity Range of LSDP Robust Controller by Exploiting the Gap Metric Theory

Authors: Ali Ameur Haj Salah, Tarek Garna, Hassani Messaoud

Abstract:

This paper attempts to define the validity domain of LSDP (Loop Shaping Design Procedure) controller system, by determining the suitable uncertainty region, so that linear system be stable. Indeed the LSDP controller cannot provide stability for any perturbed system. For this, we will use the gap metric tool that is introduced into the control literature for studying robustness properties of feedback systems with uncertainty. A 2nd order electric linear system example is given to define the validity domain of LSDP controller and effectiveness gap metric.

Keywords: LSDP, Gap metric, Robust Control.

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691 Numerical Simulations of Fire in Typical Air Conditioned Railway Coach

Authors: Manoj Sarda, Abhishek Agarwal, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

Abstract:

Railways in India remain primary mode of transport having one of the largest networks in the world and catering to billions of transits yearly. Catastrophic economic damage and loss to life is encountered over the past few decades due to fire to locomotives. Study of fire dynamics and fire propagation plays an important role in evacuation planning and reducing losses. Simulation based study of propagation of fire and soot inside an air conditioned coach of Indian locomotive is done in this paper. Finite difference based solver, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) version 6 has been used for analysis. A single air conditioned 3 tier coupe closed to ambient surroundings by glass windows having occupancy for 8 people is the basic unit of the domain. A system of three such coupes combined is taken to be fundamental unit for the entire study to resemble effect to an entire coach. Analysis of flame and soot contours and concentrations is done corresponding to variations in heat release rate per unit volume (HRRPUA) of fire source, variations in conditioned air velocity being circulated inside coupes by vents and an alternate fire initiation and propagation mechanism via ducts. Quantitative results of fractional area in top and front view of the three coupes under fire and smoke are obtained using MATLAB (IMT). Present simulations and its findings will be useful for organizations like Commission of Railway Safety and others in designing and implementing safety and evacuation measures.

Keywords: Air-conditioned coaches, fire propagation, flame contour, soot flow, train fire.

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690 Representing Data without Lost Compression Properties in Time Series: A Review

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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689 Evolution of Performance Measurement Methods in Conditions of Uncertainty: The Implementation of Fuzzy Sets in Performance Measurement

Authors: E. A. Tkachenko, E. M. Rogova, V. V. Klimov

Abstract:

One of the basic issues of development management is connected with performance measurement as a prerequisite for identifying the achievement of development objectives. The aim of our research is to develop an improved model of assessing a company’s development results. The model should take into account the cyclical nature of development and the high degree of uncertainty in dealing with numerous management tasks. Our hypotheses may be formulated as follows: Hypothesis 1. The cycle of a company’s development may be studied from the standpoint of a project cycle. To do that, methods and tools of project analysis are to be used. Hypothesis 2. The problem of the uncertainty when justifying managerial decisions within the framework of a company’s development cycle can be solved through the use of the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic. The reasoned justification of the validity of the hypotheses made is given in the suggested article. The fuzzy logic toolkit applies to the case of technology shift within an enterprise. It is proven that some restrictions in performance measurement that are incurred to conventional methods could be eliminated by implementation of the fuzzy logic apparatus in performance measurement models.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, fuzzy sets, performance measurement, project analysis.

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688 Capability Prediction of Machining Processes Based on Uncertainty Analysis

Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

Abstract:

Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: Process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis.

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687 Selection Initial modes for Belief K-modes Method

Authors: Sarra Ben Hariz, Zied Elouedi, Khaled Mellouli

Abstract:

The belief K-modes method (BKM) approach is a new clustering technique handling uncertainty in the attribute values of objects in both the cluster construction task and the classification one. Like the standard version of this method, the BKM results depend on the chosen initial modes. So, one selection method of initial modes is developed, in this paper, aiming at improving the performances of the BKM approach. Experiments with several sets of real data show that by considered the developed selection initial modes method, the clustering algorithm produces more accurate results.

Keywords: Clustering, Uncertainty, Belief function theory, Belief K-modes Method, Initial modes selection.

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686 On Solving Single-Period Inventory Model under Hybrid Uncertainty

Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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685 On the Impact of Reference Node Placement in Wireless Indoor Positioning Systems

Authors: Supattra Aomumpai, Chutima Prommak

Abstract:

This paper presents a studyof the impact of reference node locations on the accuracy of the indoor positioning systems. In particular, we analyze the localization accuracy of the RSSI database mapping techniques, deploying on the IEEE 802.15.4 wireless networks. The results show that the locations of the reference nodes used in the positioning systems affect the signal propagation characteristics in the service area. Thisin turn affects the accuracy of the wireless indoor positioning system. We found that suitable location of reference nodes could reduce the positioning error upto 35 %.

Keywords: Indoor positioning systems, IEEE 802.15.4 wireless networks, Signal propagation characteristics

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684 Anisotropic Constitutive Model and its Application in Simulation of Thermal Shock Wave Propagation for Cylinder Shell Composite

Authors: Xia Huang, Wenhui Tang, Banghai Jiang, Xianwen Ran

Abstract:

In this paper, a plane-strain orthotropic elasto-plastic dynamic constitutive model is established, and with this constitutive model, the thermal shock wave induced by intense pulsed X-ray radiation in cylinder shell composite is simulated by the finite element code, then the properties of thermal shock wave propagation are discussed. The results show that the thermal shock wave exhibit different shapes under the radiation of soft and hard X-ray, and while the composite is radiated along different principal axes, great differences exist in some aspects, such as attenuation of the peak stress value, spallation and so on.

Keywords: anisotropic constitutive model, thermal shock wave, X-ray, cylinder shell composite.

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683 Stability of Alliances between Service Providers

Authors: Helene Le Cadre

Abstract:

Three service providers in competition, try to optimize their quality of service / content level and their service access price. But, they have to deal with uncertainty on the consumers- preferences. To reduce their uncertainty, they have the opportunity to buy information and to build alliances. We determine the Shapley value which is a fair way to allocate the grand coalition-s revenue between the service providers. Then, we identify the values of β (consumers- sensitivity coefficient to the quality of service / contents) for which allocating the grand coalition-s revenue using the Shapley value guarantees the system stability. For other values of β, we prove that it is possible for the regulator to impose a per-period interest rate maximizing the market coverage under equal allocation rules.

Keywords: Alliance, Shapley value, Stability, Repeated game, Interest rate.

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682 Robot Map Building from Sonar and Laser Information using DSmT with Discounting Theory

Authors: Xinde Li, Xinhan Huang, Min Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, a new method of information fusion – DSmT (Dezert and Smarandache Theory) is introduced to apply to managing and dealing with the uncertain information from robot map building. Here we build grid map form sonar sensors and laser range finder (LRF). The uncertainty mainly comes from sonar sensors and LRF. Aiming to the uncertainty in static environment, we propose Classic DSm (DSmC) model for sonar sensors and laser range finder, and construct the general basic belief assignment function (gbbaf) respectively. Generally speaking, the evidence sources are unreliable in physical system, so we must consider the discounting theory before we apply DSmT. At last, Pioneer II mobile robot serves as a simulation experimental platform. We build 3D grid map of belief layout, then mainly compare the effect of building map using DSmT and DST. Through this simulation experiment, it proves that DSmT is very successful and valid, especially in dealing with highly conflicting information. In short, this study not only finds a new method for building map under static environment, but also supplies with a theory foundation for us to further apply Hybrid DSmT (DSmH) to dynamic unknown environment and multi-robots- building map together.

Keywords: Map building, DSmT, DST, uncertainty, information fusion.

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681 Mechanical Characteristics on Fatigue Crack Propagation in Aluminium Plate

Authors: A. Chellil, A. Nour, S. Lecheb, H. Mechakra, L. Addar, H. Kebir

Abstract:

This paper present a mechanical characteristics on fatigue crack propagation in Aluminium Plate based on strain and stress distribution using the abaqus software. The changes in shear strain and stress distribution during the fatigue cycle with crack growth is identified. In progressive crack in the strain distribution and the stress is increase in the critical zone. Numerical Modal analysis of the model developed, prove that the Eigen frequencies of aluminium plate were decreased after cracking, and this reduce is nonlinear. These results can provide a reference for analysts and designers of aluminium alloys in aeronautical systems.

Therefore, the modal analysis is an important factor for monitoring the aeronautic structures.

Keywords: Aluminium alloys, plate, crack, failure.

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680 Nonlinear Slow Shear Alfven Waves in Electron- Positron-Ion Plasma Including Full Ion Dynamics

Authors: B. Ghosh, H. Sahoo, K. K. Mondal

Abstract:

Propagation of arbitrary amplitude nonlinear Alfven waves has been investigated in low but finite β electron-positron-ion plasma including full ion dynamics. Using Sagdeev pseudopotential method an energy integral equation has been derived. The Sagdeev potential has been calculated for different plasma parameters and it has been shown that inclusion of ion parallel motion along the magnetic field changes the nature of slow shear Alfven wave solitons from dip type to hump type. The effects of positron concentration, plasma-β and obliqueness of the wave propagation on the solitary wave structure have also been examined.

Keywords: Alfven waves, Sagdeev potential, Solitary waves.

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679 Prediction of Air-Water Two-Phase Frictional Pressure Drop Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: H. B. Mehta, Vipul M. Patel, Jyotirmay Banerjee

Abstract:

The present paper discusses the prediction of gas-liquid two-phase frictional pressure drop in a 2.12 mm horizontal circular minichannel using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The experimental results are obtained with air as gas phase and water as liquid phase. The superficial gas velocity is kept in the range of 0.0236 m/s to 0.4722 m/s while the values of 0.0944 m/s, 0.1416 m/s and 0.1889 m/s are considered for superficial liquid velocity. The experimental results are predicted using different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Networks used for prediction are radial basis, generalised regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation, feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent, and Elman back propagation. Transfer functions used for networks are Linear (PURELIN), Logistic sigmoid (LOGSIG), tangent sigmoid (TANSIG) and Gaussian RBF. Combination of networks and transfer functions give different possible neural network models. These models are compared for Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD) and Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) to identify the best predictive model of ANN.

Keywords: Minichannel, Two-Phase Flow, Frictional Pressure Drop, ANN, MARD, MRD.

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678 Losses Analysis in TEP Considering Uncertainity in Demand by DPSO

Authors: S. Jalilzadeh, A. Kimiyaghalam, A. Ashouri

Abstract:

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to analyze the losses in transmission expansion planning (TEP) under uncertainty in demand. The methodology is based on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO). DPSO is a useful and powerful stochastic evolutionary algorithm to solve the large-scale, discrete and nonlinear optimization problems like TEP. The effectiveness of the proposed idea is tested on an actual transmission network of the Azerbaijan regional electric company, Iran. The simulation results show that considering the losses even for transmission expansion planning of a network with low load growth is caused that operational costs decreases considerably and the network satisfies the requirement of delivering electric power more reliable to load centers.

Keywords: DPSO, TEP, Uncertainty

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677 Well-Being Inequality Using Superimposing Satisfaction Waves: Heisenberg Uncertainty in Behavioural Economics and Econometrics

Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

In this article, a new method is proposed for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure wellbeing inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence, it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.

Keywords: Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, superimposing satisfaction waves, Weber–Fechner law, well-being inequality.

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