Search results for: time series analysis.

Authors: Philip Doganis, Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

Abstract:

Model Predictive Control has been previously applied to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain. To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve as input to the Model Predictive Control module.

Keywords: Forecasting, Model predictive control, production planning.

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Authors: K. A. Sumitra Devi, N. P. Banashree, Annamma Abraham

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Partitioning is a critical area of VLSI CAD. In order to build complex digital logic circuits its often essential to sub-divide multi -million transistor design into manageable Pieces. This paper looks at the various partitioning techniques aspects of VLSI CAD, targeted at various applications. We proposed an evolutionary time-series model and a statistical glitch prediction system using a neural network with selection of global feature by making use of clustering method model, for partitioning a circuit. For evolutionary time-series model, we made use of genetic, memetic & neuro-memetic techniques. Our work focused in use of clustering methods - K-means & EM methodology. A comparative study is provided for all techniques to solve the problem of circuit partitioning pertaining to VLSI design. The performance of all approaches is compared using benchmark data provided by MCNC standard cell placement benchmark net lists. Analysis of the investigational results proved that the Neuro-memetic model achieves greater performance then other model in recognizing sub-circuits with minimum amount of interconnections between them.

Keywords: VLSI, circuit partitioning, memetic algorithm, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: G. Viswanadh Raviteja

Abstract:

In this paper, a microstrip antenna array is designed for 5G applications. A corporate series feed is considered to operate with a center frequency between 27 to 28 GHz to be able to cover the 5G frequency bands 24.25-27.5 GHz, 26.5-29.5 GHz and 27.5-28.35 GHz. The substrate is taken to be Rogers RT/Duroid 6002. The corporate series 5G antenna array is designed stage by stage by taking into consideration a conventional antenna designed at 28 GHz, thereby constructing the 2X1 antenna array before arriving at the final design structure of 4-element corporate series feed antenna array. The discussions concerning S11 parameter, gain and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the design structures are considered and all the important findings are tabulated. The proposed antenna array’s S11 parameter was found to be -29.00 dB at a frequency of 27.39 GHz with a good directional gain of 12.12 dB.

Keywords: Corporate series feed, millimeter wave antenna array, 5G applications, millimeter-wave (mm-wave) applications

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

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This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification.

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Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

Abstract:

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.

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Authors: Carla Layana Luis Diambra

Abstract:

Microarrays technique allows the simultaneous measurements of the expression levels of thousands of mRNAs. By mining this data one can identify the dynamics of the gene expression time series. By recourse of principal component analysis, we uncover the circadian rhythmic patterns underlying the gene expression profiles from Cyanobacterium Synechocystis. We applied PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the data set. Examination of the components also provides insight into the underlying factors measured in the experiments. Our results suggest that all rhythmic content of data can be reduced to three main components.

Keywords: circadian rhythms, clustering, gene expression, PCA.

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Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

Abstract:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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Authors: I. Severin, M. Caramihai, R. El Abdi, M. Poulain, A. Avadanii

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In order to assess optical fiber reliability in different environmental and stress conditions series of testing are performed simulating overlapping of chemical and mechanical controlled varying factors. Each series of testing may be compared using statistical processing: i.e. Weibull plots. Due to the numerous data to treat, a software application has appeared useful to interpret selected series of experiments in function of envisaged factors. The current paper presents a software application used in the storage, modelling and interpretation of experimental data gathered from optical fibre testing. The present paper strictly deals with the software part of the project (regarding the modelling, storage and processing of user supplied data).

Keywords: Optical fibres, computer aided analysis, data models, data processing, graphical user interfaces.

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: Buket Turan Azizoğlu

Abstract:

In switch mode power inverters, small sized inverters can be obtained by increasing the switching frequency. Switching frequency increment causes high driver losses. Also, high dt di and dt dv produced by the switching action creates high Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and Radio Frequency Interference (RFI). In this paper, a series half bridge series resonant inverter circuit is simulated and evaluated practically to demonstrate the turn-on and turn-off conditions during zero or close to zero voltage switching. Also, the reverse recovery current effects of the body diode of the MOSFETs were investigated by operating above and below resonant frequency.

Keywords: Driver losses, Half Bridge series resonant inverter, Zero Voltage Switching

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Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model.

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Authors: J. Wozniak, M. Kostecki, K. Broniszewski, W. Bochniak, A. Olszyna

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The influence of extrusion parameters on surface quality and properties of AA6061+x% vol. SiC (x = 0; 2,5; 5; 7,5;10) composites was discussed in this paper. The averages size of AA6061 and SiC particles were 10.6 μm and 0.42 μm, respectively. Two series of composites (I - compacts were preheated at extrusion temperature through 0.5 h and cooled by water directly after process; II - compacts were preheated through 3 hours and were not cooled) were consolidated via powder metallurgy processing and extruded by KoBo method. High values of density for both series of composites were achieved. Better surface quality was observed for II series of composites. Moreover, for these composites lower (compared to I series) but more uniform strength properties over the cross-section of the bar were noticed. Microstructure and Young-s modulus investigations were made.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, extrusion, metal matrix composites, microstructure

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Authors: Liming Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a new adaptive Fourier decomposition (AFD) based time-frequency speech analysis approach is proposed. Given the fact that the fundamental frequency of speech signals often undergo fluctuation, the classical short-time Fourier transform (STFT) based spectrogram analysis suffers from the difficulty of window size selection. AFD is a newly developed signal decomposition theory. It is designed to deal with time-varying non-stationary signals. Its outstanding characteristic is to provide instantaneous frequency for each decomposed component, so the time-frequency analysis becomes easier. Experiments are conducted based on the sample sentence in TIMIT Acoustic-Phonetic Continuous Speech Corpus. The results show that the AFD based time-frequency distribution outperforms the STFT based one.

Keywords: Adaptive fourier decomposition, instantaneous frequency, speech analysis, time-frequency distribution.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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Authors: P. Wlodarczak, J. Soar, M. Ally

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The dramatic rise in the use of Social Media (SM) platforms such as Facebook and Twitter provide access to an unprecedented amount of user data. Users may post reviews on products and services they bought, write about their interests, share ideas or give their opinions and views on political issues. There is a growing interest in the analysis of SM data from organisations for detecting new trends, obtaining user opinions on their products and services or finding out about their online reputations. A recent research trend in SM analysis is making predictions based on sentiment analysis of SM. Often indicators of historic SM data are represented as time series and correlated with a variety of real world phenomena like the outcome of elections, the development of financial indicators, box office revenue and disease outbreaks. This paper examines the current state of research in the area of SM mining and predictive analysis and gives an overview of the analysis methods using opinion mining and machine learning techniques.

Keywords: Social Media, text mining, knowledge discovery, predictive analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: Narendra Kumar, Sanjiv Kumar

Abstract:

Static VAR System (SVS) is a kind of FACTS device which is used in power system primarily for the purpose of voltage and reactive power control. In this paper presents a systematic approach for designing SVS supplementary controller, which is used to improve the damping of power system oscillation. The combined bus voltage and line current (CBVLC) supplementary controller has been developed and incorporated in the SVS control system located at the middle of the series compensated long transmission line. Damping of torsional stresses due to subsynchronous resonance resulting from series capacitive compensation using CBVLC is investigated in this paper. Simulation results are carried out with MATLAB/Simulink on the IEEE first benchmark model (FBM). The simulation results show that the oscillations are satisfactorily damped out by the SVS supplementary controller. Time domain simulation is performed on power system and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Bus voltage and line current (BVLC), series compensation, sub synchronous resonance (SSR), supplementary controller, eigenvalue investigation.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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Authors: Rajendraprasad Narne, P. C. Panda

Abstract:

In this article, coordinated tuning of power system stabilizer (PSS) with static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC) in multi-machine power system is proposed. The design of proposed coordinated damping controller is formulated as an optimization problem and the controller gains are optimized instantaneously using advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization (AAPSO). The objective function is framed with the inter-area speed deviations of the generators and it is minimized using AAPSO to improve the dynamic stability of power system under severe disturbance. The proposed coordinated controller performance is evaluated under a wide range of system operating conditions with three-phase fault disturbance. Using time domain simulations the damping characteristics of proposed controller is compared with individually tuned PSS, SVC and TCSC controllers. Finally, the real-time simulations are carried out in Opal-RT hardware simulator to synchronize the proposed controller performance in the real world.

Keywords: Advanced adaptive particle swarm optimization, Coordinated design, Power system stabilizer, Real-time implementation, static var compensator, Thyristor controlled series capacitor.

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Authors: M. Saravi, F. Ashrafi, S.R. Mirrajei

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As we know, most differential equations concerning physical phenomenon could not be solved by analytical method. Even if we use Series Method, some times we need an appropriate change of variable, and even when we can, their closed form solution may be so complicated that using it to obtain an image or to examine the structure of the system is impossible. For example, if we consider Schrodinger equation, i.e., We come to a three-term recursion relations, which work with it takes, at least, a little bit time to get a series solution[6]. For this reason we use a change of variable such as or when we consider the orbital angular momentum[1], it will be necessary to solve. As we can observe, working with this equation is tedious. In this paper, after introducing Clenshaw method, which is a kind of Spectral method, we try to solve some of such equations.

Keywords: Chebyshev polynomials, Clenshaw method, ODEs, Spectral methods

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Authors: Andreas Theissler, Ian Dear

Abstract:

In the automotive industry test drives are being conducted during the development of new vehicle models or as a part of quality assurance of series-production vehicles. The communication on the in-vehicle network, data from external sensors, or internal data from the electronic control units is recorded by automotive data loggers during the test drives. The recordings are used for fault analysis. Since the resulting data volume is tremendous, manually analysing each recording in great detail is not feasible. This paper proposes to use machine learning to support domainexperts by preventing them from contemplating irrelevant data and rather pointing them to the relevant parts in the recordings. The underlying idea is to learn the normal behaviour from available recordings, i.e. a training set, and then to autonomously detect unexpected deviations and report them as anomalies. The one-class support vector machine “support vector data description” is utilised to calculate distances of feature vectors. SVDDSUBSEQ is proposed as a novel approach, allowing to classify subsequences in multivariate time series data. The approach allows to detect unexpected faults without modelling effort as is shown with experimental results on recordings from test drives.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, fault detection, test drive analysis, machine learning.

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Authors: Chatchai Pesee

Abstract:

This paper examines long-range dependence or longmemory of financial time series on the exchange rate data by the fractional Brownian motion (fBm). The principle of spectral density function in Section 2 is used to find the range of Hurst parameter (H) of the fBm. If 0< H <1/2, then it has a short-range dependence (SRD). It simulates long-memory or long-range dependence (LRD) if 1/2< H <1. The curve of exchange rate data is fBm because of the specific appearance of the Hurst parameter (H). Furthermore, some of the definitions of the fBm, long-range dependence and selfsimilarity are reviewed in Section II as well. Our results indicate that there exists a long-memory or a long-range dependence (LRD) for the exchange rate data in section III. Long-range dependence of the exchange rate data and estimation of the Hurst parameter (H) are discussed in Section IV, while a conclusion is discussed in Section V.

Keywords: Fractional Brownian motion, long-rangedependence, memory, short-range dependence.

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed, Nermeen Coutry

Abstract:

Lead time is a critical measure of a supply chain's performance. It impacts both the customer satisfactions as well as the total cost of inventory. This paper presents the result of a study on the analysis of the customer order lead-time for a multinational company. In the study, the lead time was divided into three stages respectively: order entry, order fulfillment, and order delivery. A sample of size 2,425 order lines was extracted from the company's records to use for this study. The sample data entails information regarding customer orders from the time of order entry until order delivery. Data regarding the lead time of each stage for different orders were also provided. Summary statistics on lead time data reveals that about 30% of the orders were delivered later than the scheduled due date. The result of the multiple linear regression analysis technique revealed that component type, logistics parameter, order size and the customer type have significant impacts on lead time. Data analysis on the stages of lead time indicates that stage 2 consumed over 50% of the lead time. Pareto analysis was made to study the reasons for the customer order delay in each stage. Recommendation was given to resolve the problem.

Keywords: Lead time reduction, customer satisfaction, service quality, statistical analysis.

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Authors: S.C.Swain, A.K.Balirsingh, S. Mahapatra, S. Panda

Abstract:

This paper presents a systematic approach for designing Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) based supplementary damping controllers for damping low frequency oscillations in a single-machine infinite-bus power system. The design problem of the proposed controller is formulated as an optimization problem and RCGA is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor speed of the generator is involved; stability performance of the system is improved. Simulation results are presented and compared with a conventional method of tuning the damping controller parameters to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed design approach.

Keywords: Low frequency Oscillations, Phase CompensationTechnique, Real Coded Genetic Algorithm, Single-machine InfiniteBus Power System, Static Synchronous Series Compensator.

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Authors: M. A. Elghorab, A. Abou El-Azm Aly, A. S. Elwetedy, M. A. Kotb

Abstract:

Later marine propeller is the main component of ship propulsion system. For a non-series propeller, it is difficult to indicate the open water marine propeller performance without an experimental study to measure the marine propeller parameters. In the present study, the open water performance of a non-series marine propeller has been carried out experimentally. The geometrical aspects of a commercial non-series marine propeller have been measured for a propeller blade area ratio of 0.3985. The measured propeller performance parameters were the thrust and torque coefficients for different propeller rotational speed and different water channel flow velocity, then the open water performance for the propeller has been plotted. In addition, a direct comparison between the obtained experimental results and a theoretical study of a B-series marine propeller of the same blade area ratio has been carried out. A correction factor has been introduced to apply the operating conditions of the experimental results to that of the theoretical study for the studied marine propeller.

Keywords: Advance speed, marine propeller, open water performance, thrust coefficient, torque coefficient.

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Authors: H. Taghvafard, G. H. Erjaee

Abstract:

A method for solving linear and non-linear Goursat problem is given by using the two-dimensional differential transform method. The approximate solution of this problem is calculated in the form of a series with easily computable terms and also the exact solutions can be achieved by the known forms of the series solutions. The method can easily be applied to many linear and non-linear problems and is capable of reducing the size of computational work. Several examples are given to demonstrate the reliability and the performance of the presented method.

Keywords: Quadrature, Spline interpolation, Trapezoidal rule, Numericalintegration, Error analysis.

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Authors: Adam Świtoński, Agnieszka Michalczuk, Henryk Josiński, Andrzej Polański, KonradWojciechowski

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The method of gait identification based on the nearest neighbor classification technique with motion similarity assessment by the dynamic time warping is proposed. The model based kinematic motion data, represented by the joints rotations coded by Euler angles and unit quaternions is used. The different pose distance functions in Euler angles and quaternion spaces are considered. To evaluate individual features of the subsequent joints movements during gait cycle, joint selection is carried out. To examine proposed approach database containing 353 gaits of 25 humans collected in motion capture laboratory is used. The obtained results are promising. The classifications, which takes into consideration all joints has accuracy over 91%. Only analysis of movements of hip joints allows to correctly identify gaits with almost 80% precision.

Keywords: Biometrics, dynamic time warping, gait identification, motion capture, time series classification, quaternion distance functions, attribute ranking.

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Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

Abstract:

Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: Spatial Information Network, Traffic prediction, Wavelet decomposition, Time series model.

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Authors: Xiaoling Dai

Abstract:

Many Chinese artists have used digital photography to create works with features of Chinese landscape paintings since the 20th century. The ‘New Mountains and Water’ works created by digital techniques reflect the fusion of photographic techniques and traditional Chinese aesthetic thoughts. Borrowing from Chinese landscape paintings in the Song Dynasty, the Chinese photographer Yao Lu uses digital photography to reflect contemporary environmental construction in his series New Landscapes. By portraying a variety of natural environments brought by urbanization in the contemporary period, Lu deconstructs traditional Chinese paintings and reconstructs contemporary photographic practices. The primary object of this study is to investigate how Chinese photographer Yao Lu redefines and re-interprets the relationship between tradition and contemporaneity. In this study, Yao Lu’s series work New Landscapes is used for photo elicitation, which seeks to broaden understanding of the development of Chinese landscape photography. Furthermore, discourse analysis will be used to evaluate how Chinese social developments influence the creation of photographic practices. Through the visual and discourse analysis, this study aims to excavate the relationship between tradition and contemporaneity in Lu’s works. According to New Landscapes, the study argues that in Lu’s interpretations of landscapes, tradition and contemporaneity are seen to establish a new relationship. Traditional approaches to creation do not become obsolete over time. On the contrary, traditional notions and styles of creation can shed new light on contemporary issues or techniques.

Keywords: Chinese aesthetics, contemporaneity, New Landscapes, tradition, Yao Lu.

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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