Search results for: stochastic process

Authors: Anatoli Torokhti, Phil Howlett

Abstract:

A theory for optimal filtering of infinite sets of random signals is presented. There are several new distinctive features of the proposed approach. First, a single optimal filter for processing any signal from a given infinite signal set is provided. Second, the filter is presented in the special form of a sum with p terms where each term is represented as a combination of three operations. Each operation is a special stage of the filtering aimed at facilitating the associated numerical work. Third, an iterative scheme is implemented into the filter structure to provide an improvement in the filter performance at each step of the scheme. The final step of the scheme concerns signal compression and decompression. This step is based on the solution of a new rank-constrained matrix approximation problem. The solution to the matrix problem is described in this paper. A rigorous error analysis is given for the new filter.

Keywords: Optimal filtering, data compression, stochastic signals.

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Authors: Ali Ben Abbes, ImedRiadh Farah, Vincent Barra

Abstract:

Remotely sensed data are a significant source for monitoring and updating databases for land use/cover. Nowadays, changes detection of urban area has been a subject of intensive researches. Timely and accurate data on spatio-temporal changes of urban areas are therefore required. The data extracted from multi-temporal satellite images are usually non-stationary. In fact, the changes evolve in time and space. This paper is an attempt to propose a methodology for changes detection in urban area by combining a non-stationary decomposition method and stochastic modeling. We consider as input of our methodology a sequence of satellite images I₁, I₂, … I_n at different periods (t = 1, 2, ..., n). Firstly, a preprocessing of multi-temporal satellite images is applied. (e.g. radiometric, atmospheric and geometric). The systematic study of global urban expansion in our methodology can be approached in two ways: The first considers the urban area as one same object as opposed to non-urban areas (e.g. vegetation, bare soil and water). The objective is to extract the urban mask. The second one aims to obtain a more knowledge of urban area, distinguishing different types of tissue within the urban area. In order to validate our approach, we used a database of Tres Cantos-Madrid in Spain, which is derived from Landsat for a period (from January 2004 to July 2013) by collecting two frames per year at a spatial resolution of 25 meters. The obtained results show the effectiveness of our method.

Keywords: Multi-temporal satellite image, urban growth, Non-stationarity, stochastic modeling.

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Andrus Pedai

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the neural control of depth flight of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Constant depth flight is a challenging but important task for AUVs to achieve high level of autonomy under adverse conditions. With the SA strategy, we proposed a multirate neural control of an AUV trajectory for a nontrivial mid-small size AUV “r2D4" stochastic model. This control system has been demonstrated and evaluated by simulation of diving maneuvers using software package Simulink. From the simulation results it can be seen that the chosen AUV model is stable in the presence of noises, and also can be concluded that the proposed research technique will be useful for fast SA of similar AUV systems in real-time search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Autonomous underwater vehicles, multirate systems, neurocontrollers, situational awareness.

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Authors: P. Luangpaiboon, S. Boonhao

Abstract:

This study proposes a multi-response surface optimization problem (MRSOP) for determining the proper choices of a process parameter design (PPD) decision problem in a noisy environment of a grease position process in an electronic industry. The proposed models attempts to maximize dual process responses on the mean of parts between failure on left and right processes. The conventional modified simplex method and its hybridization of the stochastic operator from the hunting search algorithm are applied to determine the proper levels of controllable design parameters affecting the quality performances. A numerical example demonstrates the feasibility of applying the proposed model to the PPD problem via two iterative methods. Its advantages are also discussed. Numerical results demonstrate that the hybridization is superior to the use of the conventional method. In this study, the mean of parts between failure on left and right lines improve by 39.51%, approximately. All experimental data presented in this research have been normalized to disguise actual performance measures as raw data are considered to be confidential.

Keywords: Grease Position Process, Multi-response Surfaces, Modified Simplex Method, Hunting Search Method, Desirability Function Approach.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

Abstract:

Real options theory suggests that managerial flexibility embedded within irreversible investments can account for a significant value in project valuation. Although the argument has become the dominant focus of capital investment theory over decades, yet recent survey literature in capital budgeting indicates that corporate practitioners still do not explicitly apply real options in investment decisions. In this paper, we explore how real options decision criteria can be transformed into equivalent capital budgeting criteria under the consideration of uncertainty, assuming that underlying stochastic process follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), a mixed diffusion-jump (MX), or a mean-reverting process (MR). These equivalent valuation techniques can be readily decomposed into conventional investment rules and “option impacts", the latter of which describe the impacts on optimal investment rules with the option value considered. Based on numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, three major findings are derived. First, it is shown that real options could be successfully integrated into the mindset of conventional capital budgeting. Second, the inclusion of option impacts tends to delay investment. It is indicated that the delay effect is the most significant under a GBM process and the least significant under a MR process. Third, it is optimal to adopt the new capital budgeting criteria in investment decision-making and adopting a suboptimal investment rule without considering real options could lead to a substantial loss in value.

Keywords: real options, capital budgeting, geometric Brownianmotion, mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process

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Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

Abstract:

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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Authors: Franklin Nantui Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

Abstract:

Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.

Keywords: Efficiency, farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, two-step stochastic metafrontier approach.

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Authors: Sungkyung Kim, Jee-Hyeon Na, Dong-Seung Kwon

Abstract:

Future mobile networks following 5th generation will be characterized by one thousand times higher gains in capacity; connections for at least one hundred billion devices; user experience capable of extremely low latency and response times. To be close to the capacity requirements and higher reliability, advanced technologies have been studied, such as multiple connectivity, small cell enhancement, heterogeneous networking, and advanced interference and mobility management. This paper is focused on the multiple connectivity in heterogeneous cellular networks. We investigate the performance of coverage and user throughput in several deployment scenarios. Using the stochastic geometry approach, the SINR distributions and the coverage probabilities are derived in case of dual connection. Also, to compare the user throughput enhancement among the deployment scenarios, we calculate the spectral efficiency and discuss our results.

Keywords: Heterogeneous networks, multiple connectivity, small cell enhancement, stochastic geometry.

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Authors: Turgay Temel, John Hallam

Abstract:

A sequential decision problem, based on the task ofidentifying the species of trees given acoustic echo data collectedfrom them, is considered with well-known stochastic classifiers,including single and mixture Gaussian models. Echoes are processedwith a preprocessing stage based on a model of mammalian cochlearfiltering, using a new discrete low-pass filter characteristic. Stoppingtime performance of the sequential decision process is evaluated andcompared. It is observed that the new low pass filter processingresults in faster sequential decisions.

Keywords: Classification, neuro-spike coding, parametricmodel, Gaussian mixture with EM algorithm, sequential decision.

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Authors: Seyed Mehran Kazemi, Bahare Fatemi

Abstract:

Sudoku is a logic-based combinatorial puzzle game which is popular among people of different ages. Due to this popularity, computer softwares are being developed to generate and solve Sudoku puzzles with different levels of difficulty. Several methods and algorithms have been proposed and used in different softwares to efficiently solve Sudoku puzzles. Various search methods such as stochastic local search have been applied to this problem. Genetic Algorithm (GA) is one of the algorithms which have been applied to this problem in different forms and in several works in the literature. In these works, chromosomes with little or no information were considered and obtained results were not promising. In this paper, we propose a new way of applying GA to this problem which uses more-informed chromosomes than other works in the literature. We optimize the parameters of our GA using puzzles with different levels of difficulty. Then we use the optimized values of the parameters to solve various puzzles and compare our results to another GA-based method for solving Sudoku puzzles.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, optimization, solving Sudoku puzzles, stochastic local search.

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Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Abstract:

This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: Crack size, Fatigue crack propagation, Magnesium alloys, Probability distribution, Specimen thickness.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

Abstract:

In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: Location-routing problem, robust optimization, Stochastic Programming, variable neighborhood search.

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Authors: R. Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

This paper presents a new problem solving approach that is able to generate optimal policy solution for finite-state stochastic sequential decision-making problems with high data efficiency. The proposed algorithm iteratively builds and improves an approximate Markov Decision Process (MDP) model along with cost-to-go value approximates by generating finite length trajectories through the state-space. The approach creates a synergy between an approximate evolving model and approximate cost-to-go values to produce a sequence of improving policies finally converging to the optimal policy through an intelligent and structured search of the policy space. The approach modifies the policy update step of the policy iteration so as to result in a speedy and stable convergence to the optimal policy. We apply the algorithm to a non-holonomic mobile robot control problem and compare its performance with other Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches, e.g., a) Q-learning, b) Watkins Q(λ), c) SARSA(λ).

Keywords: Markov Decision Process (MDP), Mobile robot, Policy iteration, Simulation.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to find the effect of load ratio on probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack size and to confirm the good probability distribution in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: Load ratio, fatigue crack propagation life, Magnesium alloys, probability distribution.

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Authors: Jonathan H. Perez, Fumihiko Tanaka, Daisuke Hamanaka, Toshitaka Uchino

Abstract:

A finite element analysis was conducted to determine the effect of moisture diffusion and hygroscopic swelling in rice. A parallel simple stochastic modeling was performed to predict the number of grains cracked as a result of moisture absorption and hygroscopic swelling. Rice grains were soaked in thermally (25 oC) controlled water and then tested for compressive stress. The destructive compressive stress tests revealed through compressive stress calculation that the peak force required to cause cracking in grains soaked in water reduced with time as soaking duration was extended. Results of the experiment showed that several grains had their value of the predicted compressive stress below the von Mises stress and were interpreted as grains which become cracked and/or broke during soaking. The technique developed in this experiment will facilitate the approximation of the number of grains which will crack during soaking.

Keywords: Cracking, Finite element analysis, hygroscopic swelling, moisture diffusion, von Mises stress.

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Authors: Shan Gao, Zaiming Liu

Abstract:

This paper treats a discrete-time batch arrival queue with single working vacation. The main purpose of this paper is to present a performance analysis of this system by using the supplementary variable technique. For this purpose, we first analyze the Markov chain underlying the queueing system and obtain its ergodicity condition. Next, we present the stationary distributions of the system length as well as some performance measures at random epochs by using the supplementary variable method. Thirdly, still based on the supplementary variable method we give the probability generating function (PGF) of the number of customers at the beginning of a busy period and give a stochastic decomposition formulae for the PGF of the stationary system length at the departure epochs. Additionally, we investigate the relation between our discretetime system and its continuous counterpart. Finally, some numerical examples show the influence of the parameters on some crucial performance characteristics of the system.

Keywords: Discrete-time queue, batch arrival, working vacation, supplementary variable technique, stochastic decomposition.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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Authors: Anatoli Torokhti, Stanley Miklavcic

Abstract:

Suppose KY and KX are large sets of observed and reference signals, respectively, each containing N signals. Is it possible to construct a filter F : KY → KX that requires a priori information only on few signals, p  N, from KX but performs better than the known filters based on a priori information on every reference signal from KX? It is shown that the positive answer is achievable under quite unrestrictive assumptions. The device behind the proposed method is based on a special extension of the piecewise linear interpolation technique to the case of random signal sets. The proposed technique provides a single filter to process any signal from the arbitrarily large signal set. The filter is determined in terms of pseudo-inverse matrices so that it always exists.

Keywords: Wiener filter, filtering of stochastic signals.

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Authors: Anahita Farhang Ghahfarokhi, Alessandro Berti, Wil M.P. van der Aalst

Abstract:

Process mining provides ways to analyze business processes. Common process mining techniques consider the process as a whole. However, in real-life business processes, different behaviors exist that make the overall process too complex to interpret. Process comparison is a branch of process mining that isolates different behaviors of the process from each other by using process cubes. Process cubes organize event data using different dimensions. Each cell contains a set of events that can be used as an input to apply process mining techniques. Existing work on process cubes assume single case notions. However, in real processes, several case notions (e.g., order, item, package, etc.) are intertwined. Object-centric process mining is a new branch of process mining addressing multiple case notions in a process. To make a bridge between object-centric process mining and process comparison, we propose a process cube framework, which supports process cube operations such as slice and dice on object-centric event logs. To facilitate the comparison, the framework is integrated with several object-centric process discovery approaches.

Keywords: Process mining, multidimensional process mining, multi-perspective business processes, OLAP, process cubes, process discovery.

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Authors: Malay K. Pakhira, Rajat K. De

Abstract:

In this paper, a pipelined version of genetic algorithm, called PLGA, and a corresponding hardware platform are described. The basic operations of conventional GA (CGA) are made pipelined using an appropriate selection scheme. The selection operator, used here, is stochastic in nature and is called SA-selection. This helps maintaining the basic generational nature of the proposed pipelined GA (PLGA). A number of benchmark problems are used to compare the performances of conventional roulette-wheel selection and the SA-selection. These include unimodal and multimodal functions with dimensionality varying from very small to very large. It is seen that the SA-selection scheme is giving comparable performances with respect to the classical roulette-wheel selection scheme, for all the instances, when quality of solutions and rate of convergence are considered. The speedups obtained by PLGA for different benchmarks are found to be significant. It is shown that a complete hardware pipeline can be developed using the proposed scheme, if parallel evaluation of the fitness expression is possible. In this connection a low-cost but very fast hardware evaluation unit is described. Results of simulation experiments show that in a pipelined hardware environment, PLGA will be much faster than CGA. In terms of efficiency, PLGA is found to outperform parallel GA (PGA) also.

Keywords: Hardware evaluation, Hardware pipeline, Optimization, Pipelined genetic algorithm, SA-selection.

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: Equivalent Martingale Measure, European Put Option, Girsanov Theorem, Martingales, Monte Carlo method, option price valuation, option price valuation formula.

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Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper, we deal with the fundamental concepts and properties of ergodicity coefficients in a hierarchical sense by making use of partition. Moreover, we establish a hierarchial Hajnal’s inequality improving some previous results.

Keywords: Stochastic matrix, ergodicity coefficient, partition.

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Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (r, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (r, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs.

Keywords: (r, Q) policy, Stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts.

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: Optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

Abstract:

The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: Data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation.

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Authors: Aryanejad Mir Bahador Goli, Zahra Honarmand Shah Zileh

Abstract:

In most study fields, a phenomenon may not be studied directly but it will be examined indirectly by phenomenon model. Making an accurate model of system, there is attained new information from modeled phenomenon without any charge, danger, etc... there have been developed more solutions for describing and analyzing the recent complicated systems but few of them have analyzed the performance in the range of system description. Petri nets are of limited solutions which may make such union. Petri nets are being applied in problems related to modeling and designing the systems. Theory of Petri nets allow a system to model mathematically by a Petri net and analyzing the Petri net can then determine main information of modeled system-s structure and dynamic. This information can be used for assessing the performance of systems and suggesting corrections in the system. In this paper, beside the introduction of Petri nets, a real case study will be studied in order to show the application of generalized stochastic Petri nets in modeling a resource sharing production system and evaluating the efficiency of its machines and robots. The modeling tool used here is SHARP software which calculates specific indicators helping to make decision.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, generalizedstochastic Petri nets, Markov chain, performance evaluation.

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Authors: T. T. Manikandan, Rajeev Sukumaran

Abstract:

For maintaining the biodiversity of many ecosystems the existence of coral reefs play a vital role. But due to many factors such as pollution and coral mining, coral reefs are dying day by day. One way to protect the coral reefs is to farm them in a carefully monitored underwater environment and restore it in place of dead corals. For successful farming of corals in coral farms, different parameters of the water in the farming area need to be monitored and maintained at optimal level. Sensing underwater parameters using wireless sensor nodes is an effective way for precise and continuous monitoring in a highly dynamic environment like oceans. Here the sensed information is of varying importance and it needs to be provided with desired Quality of Service(QoS) guarantees in delivering the information to offshore monitoring centers. The main interest of this research is Stochastic Network Calculus (SNC) based modeling of network layer design for underwater wireless sensor communication. The model proposed in this research enforces differentiation of service in underwater wireless sensor communication with the help of buffer sizing and link scheduling. The delay and backlog bounds for such differentiated services are analytically derived using stochastic network calculus.

Keywords: Underwater Coral Farms, SNC, differentiated service, delay bound, backlog bound.

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