Search results for: Decision Theory
2779 The Application of Real Options to Capital Budgeting
Authors: George Yungchih Wang
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Real options theory suggests that managerial flexibility embedded within irreversible investments can account for a significant value in project valuation. Although the argument has become the dominant focus of capital investment theory over decades, yet recent survey literature in capital budgeting indicates that corporate practitioners still do not explicitly apply real options in investment decisions. In this paper, we explore how real options decision criteria can be transformed into equivalent capital budgeting criteria under the consideration of uncertainty, assuming that underlying stochastic process follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), a mixed diffusion-jump (MX), or a mean-reverting process (MR). These equivalent valuation techniques can be readily decomposed into conventional investment rules and “option impacts", the latter of which describe the impacts on optimal investment rules with the option value considered. Based on numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, three major findings are derived. First, it is shown that real options could be successfully integrated into the mindset of conventional capital budgeting. Second, the inclusion of option impacts tends to delay investment. It is indicated that the delay effect is the most significant under a GBM process and the least significant under a MR process. Third, it is optimal to adopt the new capital budgeting criteria in investment decision-making and adopting a suboptimal investment rule without considering real options could lead to a substantial loss in value.
Keywords: real options, capital budgeting, geometric Brownianmotion, mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27542778 Site Selection of Traffic Camera based on Dempster-Shafer and Bagging Theory
Authors: S. Rokhsari, M. Delavar, A. Sadeghi-Niaraki, A. Abed-Elmdoust, B. Moshiri
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Traffic incident has bad effect on all parts of society so controlling road networks with enough traffic devices could help to decrease number of accidents, so using the best method for optimum site selection of these devices could help to implement good monitoring system. This paper has considered here important criteria for optimum site selection of traffic camera based on aggregation methods such as Bagging and Dempster-Shafer concepts. In the first step, important criteria such as annual traffic flow, distance from critical places such as parks that need more traffic controlling were identified for selection of important road links for traffic camera installation, Then classification methods such as Artificial neural network and Decision tree algorithms were employed for classification of road links based on their importance for camera installation. Then for improving the result of classifiers aggregation methods such as Bagging and Dempster-Shafer theories were used.Keywords: Aggregation, Bagging theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, Site selection
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16892777 Identifying Chaotic Architecture: Origins of Nonlinear Design Theory
Authors: Mohammadsadegh Zanganehfar
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Through the emergence of modern architecture, an aggressive desire for new design theories appeared through the works of architects and critics. The discourse of complexity and volumetric composition happened to be an important and controversial issue in the discipline of architecture which was discussed through a general point of view in Robert Venturi and Denise Scott Brown's book “Complexity and contradiction in architecture” in 1966, this paper attempts to identify chaos theory as a scientific model of complexity and its relation to architecture design theory by conducting a qualitative analysis and multidisciplinary critical approach through architecture and basic sciences resources. Accordingly, we identify chaotic architecture as the correlation between chaos theory and the discipline of architecture, and as an independent nonlinear design theory with specific characteristics and properties.
Keywords: Architecture complexity, chaos theory, fractals, nonlinear dynamic systems, nonlinear ontology.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10432776 The Development of Decision Support System for Waste Management; a Review
Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris
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Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 37342775 Integrating Context Priors into a Decision Tree Classification Scheme
Authors: Kasim Terzic, Bernd Neumann
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Scene interpretation systems need to match (often ambiguous) low-level input data to concepts from a high-level ontology. In many domains, these decisions are uncertain and benefit greatly from proper context. This paper demonstrates the use of decision trees for estimating class probabilities for regions described by feature vectors, and shows how context can be introduced in order to improve the matching performance.Keywords: Classification, Decision Trees, Interpretation, Vision
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12932774 A Study on the Differences of Academic Achievement, Self-Efficacy, and Engineering Self-Efficacy with Gender of Engineering Students
Authors: Seung hee Kang, Jee-Hong Kim, Ji Seong Jang,
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The purpose of this study was to investigate relationships between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity of engineering college students by performing correlation analysis. Gender differences in between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity were also examined by T-test. The results T-test revealed gender differences in only career decision efficacy. Male Students scored significantly higher than did female students on career decision efficacy and satisfaction with major. The results of correlation analysis showed a) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career decision efficacy, b) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career attitude maturity, and c) career decision efficacy were significantly associated with career attitude maturity. As a result,we found the importance of satisfaction in engineering college students- major studies when deciding their career.
Keywords: Satisfaction with major, career decision efficacy, career attitude maturity, engineering college student.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17512773 An Intelligent Human-Computer Interaction System for Decision Support
Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim
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This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.
Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14432772 Published Financial Statement as a Correlate of Investment Decision among Commercial Bank Stakeholders in Nigeria
Authors: Popoola, C. F., Akinsanya, K., Babarinde, S. B., Farinde, D. A.
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This study investigated published financial statement as correlate of investment decision among commercial bank stakeholders in Nigeria. A correlation research design was used in the study. 180 users of published financial statement were purposively sampled from Lagos and Ibadan. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation and regression. The findings of the study revealed that, balance sheet is negatively related with investment decision (r= -.483; p<.01) while income statement (r= .249; p<.001), notes on the account (r= .230; p<.001), cash flow statement (r= .202; p<.001), value added statement (r= .328; p<.001) and five-year financial summary (r= .191; p<.01) are positively related with investment decision. Findings also revealed that components of published financial statement significantly predicted good investment decision (R2= .983; F(5,175)=284.5; p<.05) for commercial bank stakeholders. Therefore, it was suggested that Nigeria banks and professional bodies should instigate programs that will increase the knowledge of stakeholders on published financial statement.
Keywords: Commercial banks, Financial statement, Income Statement, Investment decision, Stakeholders.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 49932771 Decision Framework for Cross-Border Railway Infrastructure Projects
Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki
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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.
Keywords: System of system approach, decision making, cross-border, infrastructure project.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17902770 A Fuzzy Decision Making Approach for Supplier Selection in Healthcare Industry
Authors: Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun
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Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most important components of an effective supply chain management system. Due to the expanding competition in healthcare, selecting the right medical device suppliers offers great potential for increasing quality while decreasing costs. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for medical supplier selection. A real-world medical device supplier selection problem is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed decision methodology.
Keywords: Fuzzy decision making, fuzzy multiple objective programming, medical supply chain, supplier selection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26632769 A Contribution to the Application of the Structural Analysis Method in Entrepreneurial Practice
Authors: Kamila Janovská, Šárka Vilamová, Petr Besta, Iveta Vozňáková, Roman Kozel
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Quantitative methods of economic decision-making as the methodological base of the so called operational research represent an important set of tools for managing complex economic systems,both at the microeconomic level and on the macroeconomic scale. Mathematical models of controlled and controlling processes allow, by means of artificial experiments, obtaining information foroptimalor optimum approaching managerial decision-making.The quantitative methods of economic decision-making usually include a methodology known as structural analysis -an analysisof interdisciplinary production-consumption relations.Keywords: economic decision-making, mathematical methods, structuralanalysis, technical coefficient
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14252768 Efficient Design of Distribution Logistics by Using a Model-Based Decision Support System
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The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.
Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18132767 Rough Set Based Intelligent Welding Quality Classification
Authors: L. Tao, T. J. Sun, Z. H. Li
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The knowledge base of welding defect recognition is essentially incomplete. This characteristic determines that the recognition results do not reflect the actual situation. It also has a further influence on the classification of welding quality. This paper is concerned with the study of a rough set based method to reduce the influence and improve the classification accuracy. At first, a rough set model of welding quality intelligent classification has been built. Both condition and decision attributes have been specified. Later on, groups of the representative multiple compound defects have been chosen from the defect library and then classified correctly to form the decision table. Finally, the redundant information of the decision table has been reducted and the optimal decision rules have been reached. By this method, we are able to reclassify the misclassified defects to the right quality level. Compared with the ordinary ones, this method has higher accuracy and better robustness.Keywords: intelligent decision, rough set, welding defects, welding quality level
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15862766 Empirical and Indian Automotive Equity Portfolio Decision Support
Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu
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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.
Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20262765 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Fuzzy Preference Optimization Programming (POP)
Authors: C. Ardil
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The Turkish Air Force needs to acquire a sixth- generation fighter aircraft in order to maintain its air superiority and dominance against its rivals under the risks posed by global geopolitical opportunities and threats. Accordingly, five evaluation criteria were determined to evaluate the sixth-generation fighter aircraft alternatives and to select the best one. Systematically, a new fuzzy preference optimization programming (POP) method is proposed to select the best sixth generation fighter aircraft in an uncertain environment. The POP technique considers both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach, it is applied to a multiple criteria decision-making problem to evaluate and select sixth-generation fighter aircraft. The results of the fuzzy POP method are compared with the results of the fuzzy TOPSIS approach to validate it. According to the comparative analysis, fuzzy POP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods get the same results. This demonstrates the applicability of the fuzzy POP technique to address the sixth-generation fighter selection problem.
Keywords: Fighter aircraft selection, sixth-generation fighter aircraft, fuzzy decision process, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, TOPSIS, Kizilelma, MIUS, fuzzy set theory
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4282764 Critical Analysis of Decision Making Experience with a Machine Learning Approach in Playing Ayo Game
Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe
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The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12792763 The Impact of Online Advertising on Generation Y’s Purchase Decision in Malaysia
Authors: Mui Joo Tang, Eang Teng Chan
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Advertising is commonly used to foster sales and reputation of an institution. It is at first the growth of print advertising that has increased the population and number of periodicals of newspaper and its circulation. The rise of Internet and online media has somehow blurred the role of media and advertising though the intention is still to reach out to audience and to increase sales. The relationship between advertising and audience on a product purchase through persuasion has been developing from print media to online media. From the changing media environment and audience, it is the concern of this research to study the impact of online advertising to such a relationship cycle. The content of online advertisements is much of text, multimedia, photo, audio and video. The messages of such content format may indeed bring impacts to its audience and its credibility. This study is therefore reflecting the effectiveness of online advertisement and its influences on generation Y in their purchasing behavior. This study uses Media Dependency Theory to analyze the relationship between the impact of online advertisement and media usage pattern of generation Y. Hierarchy of Effectiveness Model is used as a marketing communication model to study the effectiveness of advertising and further to determine the impact of online advertisement on generation Y in their purchasing decision making. This research uses online survey to reach out the sample of generation Y. The results have shown that online advertisements do not affect much on purchase decision making even though generation Y relies much on the media content including online advertisement for its information and believing in its credibility. There are few other external factors that may interrupt the effectiveness of online advertising. The very obvious influence of purchasing behavior is actually derived from the peers.
Keywords: Generation Y, online advertising, online media, persuasion, print media, purchase decision.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 59322762 PZ: A Z-based Formalism for Modeling Probabilistic Behavior
Authors: Hassan Haghighi
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Probabilistic techniques in computer programs are becoming more and more widely used. Therefore, there is a big interest in the formal specification, verification, and development of probabilistic programs. In our work-in-progress project, we are attempting to make a constructive framework for developing probabilistic programs formally. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce an intermediate artifact of our work, a Z-based formalism called PZ, by which one can build set theoretical models of probabilistic programs. We propose to use a constructive set theory, called CZ set theory, to interpret the specifications written in PZ. Since CZ has an interpretation in Martin-L¨of-s theory of types, this idea enables us to derive probabilistic programs from correctness proofs of their PZ specifications.Keywords: formal specification, formal program development, probabilistic programs, CZ set theory, type theory.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11942761 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis
Authors: C. Ardil
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This paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique for selecting fighter aircraft for the national air force. The selection of military aircraft is a process consisting of contradictory goals and objectives. When a modern air force needs to choose fighter aircraft to upgrade existing fleets, a multiple criteria decision making analysis and scenario planning for defense acquisition has been put forward. The selection of fighter aircraft for the air defense force is a strategic decision making process, since the purchase or lease of fighter jets, maintenance and operating costs and having a fleet is the biggest cost for the air force. Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods are effectively applied to facilitate decision making from various available options. The selection criteria were determined using the literature on the problem of fighter aircraft selection. The selection of fighter aircraft to be purchased for the air defense forces is handled using a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique that also determines a suitable methodological approach for the defense procurement and fleet upgrade planning process. The aim of this study is to originate an approach to evaluate fighter aircraft alternatives, Su-35, F-35, and TF-X (MMU), based on technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).
Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Su-35, F-35, TF-X (MMU)
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6092760 The Role of Cognitive Decision Effort in Electronic Commerce Recommendation System
Authors: Cheng-Che Tsai, Huang-Ming Chuang
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The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of cognitive decision effort in recommendation system, combined with indicators "information quality" and "service quality" from IS success model to exam the awareness of the user for the "recommended system performance". A total of 411 internet user answered a questionnaire assessing their attention of use and satisfaction of recommendation system in internet book store. Quantitative result indicates following research results. First, information quality of recommended system has obvious influence in consumer shopping decision-making process, and the attitude to use the system. Second, in the process of consumer's shopping decision-making, the recommendation system has no significant influence for consumers to pay lower cognitive decision-making effort. Third, e-commerce platform provides recommendations and information is necessary, but the quality of information on user needs must be considered, or they will be other competitors offer homogeneous services replaced.Keywords: Recommender system, Cognitive decision-making efforts, IS success model, Internet bookstore.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20602759 Factors Influence Depositors- Withdrawal Behavior in Islamic Banks: A Theory of Reasoned Action
Authors: Muhamad Abduh, Jarita Duasa, Mohd. Azmi Omar
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Unlike its conventional counterpart, Islamic principles forbid Islamic banks to take any interest-related income and thus makes deposits from depositors as an important source of fund for its operational and financing. Consequently, the risk of deposit withdrawal by depositors is an important aspect that should be wellmanaged in Islamic banking. This paper aims to investigate factors that influence depositors- withdrawal behavior in Islamic banks, particularly in Malaysia, using the framework of theory of reasoned action. A total of 368 respondents from Klang valley are involved in the analysis. The paper finds that all the constructs variable i.e. normative beliefs, subjective norms, behavioral beliefs, and attitude towards behavior are perceived to be distinct by the respondents. In addition, the structural equation model is able to verify the structural relationships between subjective norms, attitude towards behavior and behavioral intention. Subjective norms gives more influence to depositors- decision on deposit withdrawal compared to attitude towards behavior.Keywords: Islamic bank, structural equation model, theory of reasoned action, withdrawal behavior
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 39522758 Value from Environmental and Cultural Perspectives or Two Sides of the Same Coin
Authors: Vilém Pařil, Dominika Tóthová
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This paper discusses the value theory in cultural heritage and the value theory in environmental economics. Two economic views of the value theory are compared, within the field of cultural heritage maintenance and within the field of the environment. The main aims are to find common features in these two differently structured theories under the layer of differently defined terms as well as really differing features of these two approaches; to clear the confusion which stems from different terminology as in fact these terms capture the same aspects of reality; and to show possible inspiration these two perspectives can offer one another. Another aim is to present these two value systems in one value framework. First, important moments of the value theory from the economic perspective are presented, leading to the marginal revolution of (not only) the Austrian School. Then the theory of value within cultural heritage and environmental economics are explored. Finally, individual approaches are compared and their potential mutual inspiration searched for.
Keywords: Cultural heritage, environmental economics, existence value, value theory.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18822757 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant
Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright
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We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.
Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1652756 Military Combat Aircraft Selection Using Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)
Authors: C. Ardil
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This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.
Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4532755 Game Theory Based Diligent Energy Utilization Algorithm for Routing in Wireless Sensor Network
Authors: X. Mercilin Raajini, R. Raja Kumar, P. Indumathi, V. Praveen
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Many cluster based routing protocols have been proposed in the field of wireless sensor networks, in which a group of nodes are formed as clusters. A cluster head is selected from one among those nodes based on residual energy, coverage area, number of hops and that cluster-head will perform data gathering from various sensor nodes and forwards aggregated data to the base station or to a relay node (another cluster-head), which will forward the packet along with its own data packet to the base station. Here a Game Theory based Diligent Energy Utilization Algorithm (GTDEA) for routing is proposed. In GTDEA, the cluster head selection is done with the help of game theory, a decision making process, that selects a cluster-head based on three parameters such as residual energy (RE), Received Signal Strength Index (RSSI) and Packet Reception Rate (PRR). Finding a feasible path to the destination with minimum utilization of available energy improves the network lifetime and is achieved by the proposed approach. In GTDEA, the packets are forwarded to the base station using inter-cluster routing technique, which will further forward it to the base station. Simulation results reveal that GTDEA improves the network performance in terms of throughput, lifetime, and power consumption.Keywords: Cluster head, Energy utilization, Game Theory, LEACH, Sensor network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18942754 Temporal Case-Based Reasoning System for Automatic Parking Complex
Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy
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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19662753 Using Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Decision-Making Tool in Project Portfolio Management
Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi
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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 42532752 The Application of the Queuing Theory in the Traffic Flow of Intersection
Authors: Shuguo Yang, Xiaoyan Yang
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It is practically significant to research the traffic flow of intersection because the capacity of intersection affects the efficiency of highway network directly. This paper analyzes the traffic conditions of an intersection in certain urban by the methods of queuing theory and statistical experiment, sets up a corresponding mathematical model and compares it with the actual values. The result shows that queuing theory is applied in the study of intersection traffic flow and it can provide references for the other similar designs.
Keywords: Intersection, Queuing theory, Statistical experiment, System metrics.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 75182751 Learning Paradigms for Educating a New Generation of Computer Science Students
Authors: J. M. Breed, E. Taylor
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In this paper challenges associated with a new generation of Computer Science students are examined. The mode of education in tertiary institutes has progressed slowly while the needs of students have changed rapidly in an increasingly technological world. The major learning paradigms and learning theories within these paradigms are studied to find a suitable strategy for educating modern students. These paradigms include Behaviourism, Constructivism, Humanism and Cogntivism. Social Learning theory and Elaboration theory are two theories that are further examined and a survey is done to determine how these strategies will be received by students. The results and findings are evaluated and indicate that students are fairly receptive to a method that incorporates both Social Learning theory and Elaboration theory, but that some aspects of all paradigms need to be implemented to create a balanced and effective strategy with technology as foundation.Keywords: Computer Science, Education, Elaboration Theory, Learning Paradigms, Social Learning Theory.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21572750 Plant Location Selection by Using a Three-Step Methodology: Delphi-AHP-VIKOR
Authors: B. Vahdani, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam
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Nowadays, the plant location selection has a critical impact on the performance of numerous companies. In this paper, a methodology is presented to solve this problem. The three decision making methods, namely Delphi, AHP and improved VIKOR, are hybridized in order to make the best use of information available based on the decision makers or experts. In this respect, the aim of using Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few decision makers. The AHP is utilized to give weights of the selected criteria. Finally, the improved VIKOR method is applied to rank alternatives. At the end of paper, an application example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology.Keywords: Decision making, Plant location selection, Delphi, AHP, Improved VIKOR.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3963